THINKING AHEAD HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

PREPARED BY INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES SARAH L. CATZ, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE ADAM CHRISTIAN, CENTER FOR URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE SUMMER 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS Appendix V V E V i. c. V. I III II I T V. .

ndnotes III II I I .

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Z . E b. a. b. a. b. a. c. b. a. H . BLE OFCON

Principles ofTODPlacemaking forTransit-OrientedExpanded Opportunities Development(TOD) Conclusion ARTIC New/Expanded MultimodalHubs Alternative ConnectivityConcepts Connecting Regional Transit An Changes inTraffic ImpactModeling Sustainable CommunityStrategy(SCS) S Community Health/Obesity Air Quality Jobs of Summary ntroduction i. iii. ii. oning/ iv. iii. ii. i. ii. i. iii. ii. i. conomic andCommunity B SR andthe

375and

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ffective Parking Affordable Housing Office/Hospitality Cityshare/Zipcar programs Neighborhood ElectricVehicles (NEVs) Supershuttle Van/jitney concepts. Express Flyawaybuses. Anaheim FixedGuideway Metro Green Lineextension CAHSR’s ImpactonSouthernCalifornia’s“Green” Economy Long-Term EconomicEffect toIntermediate-TermShort- EconomicEffectofCAHSR L and H

F I U D ntermodal Strategyfor igh-Speed Rail indings se T iscretionary Rider iscretionary EN P olicies TS B enefits of H H igh-Speed Rail igh-Speed Rail

28 22 21 20 17 12 10 4 3 1

THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS VMT TPL TOD SCS SCAG SB 375 RTP RHNA OCTA NPV NEV MTA MPO HSR HOV GHG FT 1Y FIRE EIR CSI CHSRA CEQA CBD CARB CAHSR BRT ARTIC ARRA ARC AB 32 L I ST

OFABB Vehicle MilesTraveled The Trust ForPublic Land Transit-Oriented Development Sustainable CommunitiesStrategy Southern CaliforniaAssociation ofGovernments Senate Bill375(California) Regional Transportation Plan Regional HousingNeedsAssessment Orange CountyTransportation Agency Net Present Value Neighborhood ElectricVehicles Metropolitan Transportation Agency Metropolitan PlanningOrganization High-Speed Rail High-Occupancy Vehicle Greenhouse Gases Full-Time One-Year Finance, Insurance,andReal Estate Environmental ImpactReview Cambridge Systematics California High-SpeedRailAuthority California Environmental QualityAct Central BusinessDistrict California AirResources Board California High-SpeedRail Bus RapidTransit Anaheim Regional Transportation IntermodalCenter American Reinvestment andRecovery Act Anaheim RapidConnection Assembly Bill32(California) R E V I AT ION S

THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA I INTRODUCTION jobs and enhance national security. But this 21 this But security. national enhance and jobs later, President Obama also announced a transportation plan growingthat would produce our address: of needs Union the meet the population, our expanding economy, and our national security.” to Fifty-five years of essential is State system highway 1955 modern “A his in declared highway, Eisenhower interstate an President in investment federal of importance the Highlighting IN where they work, high-speed rail has the same transformative potential. In the In potential. transformative same the has rail high-speed work, they where and live Americans way the transformed System Highway Interstate the as Just service inthiscountrywillhelp changeoursocietyforthebetter.” rail of generation next the building that doubt no have I communities. livable create help and fuels fossil on dependence our reduce to going also it’s base, speed rail will “not only high- … create good that jobs and releasereinvigorate our pressmanufacturing a in out pointed recently LaHood Ray Transportation of Secretary States United security. national our strengthen will turn in which foreignon revitalization,dependence mobility,oil, economic less and and jobs improved emissions, carbon lower including system, rail intercity efficient and convenient, fast, a key of benefits many myriad the constituents, touting already theirare leaders for political investment this of potential the by Excited Southern Californiaonahigh-speedraillinefrom Los AngelestoAnaheim. in construction on spent be will California in arriving funds the of majority the that is scenario likely The towardprojects.remainderregional allocated transit the and fromProposition1A), funds state by matched be (to system rail speed share of any state, $2.34 billion, with $2.25 billion allocated to a dedicated largesthigh the receive to is California States. United the across corridors thirteen on service rail high-speed jumpstart will that grant stimulus federal billion $8 In January 2010, President Obama announced the recipients of an unprecedented our dependenceoncarsandthenation’s demandforoil. reduce dramatically would it successful, if that in Eisenhower’s, from different TR ODU CT ION st Century plan is considerably is plan Century lnig n evrnetl eiw rcs, n cud e lmtd service limited see commence asearly2017. could and process, review environmental and planning the in advanced most the currently is Anaheim to Angeles Los plan, business Authority Rail Speed High California the in identified segments corridor seven sustainable more the of a transformation: this for zero in ground be will communities California Southern manner. and regions entire reshape to – noted arena of transportation, it is a disruptive technology, with the power – as LaHood In particular,In predicteconomists some regulatorythat emissions GHG on curbs protection. environmental and growth economic between conflict fundamental a perceive who those by attack under come recently have 375 SB and 32 AB in 375) (SB planning ofthosereductionsupport targets. transportation and use land regional of the coordination and 32), (AB emissions (GHG) gas greenhouse statewide in reduction a relationin mandate recentimpact that to rail’s initiatives high-speed legislative advantage of the investment about to be made in California. It will also examine take can region the around cities that ensure to needed are strategies what and benefits likely to be reaped from high-speed rail, specifically in Orange County, the of some analyze will study This corridor. CAHSR proposed the by served destinations of majority vast the for networks air and auto both over advantages cost and time-saving substantial with travel, interregional of mode faster and High- networks. transportation existing regionCalifornia Southern the new to a bring hand, other the on will, rail speed the to enhancements capacity and deliveredhave incrementalinvestments improvementsthese part, most the For funded byaone-halfcentsalestaxknownas“Measure M”. was which of much improvements,street surface and service rail commuter of inauguration the lanes, (HOV) vehicle occupancy high additional roadnetwork, toll transportation a lanes, freeway of in addition the through mostly invested – investment heavy seen have has particular, in County, counties Orange years. twenty California last the during infrastructure Southern the of All people overthenext30years. dramatic economic downturn, it is still projected to add over 6 million a additional Despite 2000. since people million 2 over added has region The work. and For a long time, Southern California has been known as a desirable place to live

1 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTRODUCTION $VVHVV ‡ 8QGHUVWDQG ‡ 2XWOLQH ‡ 4XDQWLI\ ‡ More specifically, thegoalsofthisstudywere to: regional plannersandpolicymakers,butthepublicatlarge. by only not understood and analyzed thoroughly more be to deserves impact California’s Southern of each projected nearly 21 million residents by2035. The project’s positive economic for footprint carbon lighter a and sector, jobs desiredmoreoutcomes: robust growth,employment “green”the in specifically infrastructure project such as high-speed rail would contribute favorably to both to shift the terms of the debate by demonstrating how a transformative large-scale opportunity an objectives, policy of convergence important an represents High-speed rail’s delivery of both economic and environmental benefits therefore pieces oflegislationare highlyinterdependent. two the since jeopardy into 375 SB put also would passed, if 23, Proposition reaches a pre-recession level of 5.5% for at least four consecutive quarters. consecutive four least at for 5.5% of level pre-recession a reaches would California, in ballot California in unemployment long-term until 32 statewide AB of implementation suspend 2010 November the on currently 23, Propositionrecovery. a for prospects the damaging and competitive less state the making energybusinesses, raise and could consumers California for prices SB 375’s Sustainable Communities Strategy for local governments and governments local for Strategy Communities Sustainable 375’s SB 375’s GHGemissionsreduction targets; and systems transit connecting in alternative mobilityconcepts; made be could that investments complimentary including system, futureCAHSR the on increaseridership the increased accessibilityofaffordable housing; communities),new walkable,TODHSR-induced employmentgrowth, and levels of physical activity among regular HSR users as well as residents of reductions in GHG emissions, improved community as health (fromsuch increased communities, adjacent and users transit California Southern by   WKH  WKH VRPH  HIIHFWLYHQHVV   WKH SULQFLSOHV   RI UROH  WKH  RI    UHJLRQDO KLJKVSHHG  RI DQG  DQ  YDOXH   HIIHFWLYH HFRQRPLF   RI UDLO  UHJXODWRU\  LQ  LQWHUPRGDO   DGYDQFLQJ EHQHILWV  LQFHQWLYHV   OLNHO\  VWUDWHJ\ FRPSOLDQFH   WR SURYLGHG   EH WKDW  FDSWXUHG  ZLWK   ZRXOG XQGHU  6% 1   

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2 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA II II: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 7KH ‡ %\ ‡ 'XULQJ ‡ S UMM the new permanent jobs in Southern California attributable to HSR would HSR to attributable California Southern in jobs permanent new the of 77% others. among vehicles/equipment, low-emission and materials, energy efficiency and production, high-performance building/construction think tank. The green economy includes new goods and Francisco-based services related to San a 10, Next by study recent a to according employment growth, of rate statewide average the outpaced dramatically 2008 to 1995 from which “green”economy,emerging California’s Southern of benefits includehealthcare andfinancial/real agglomeration estateservices. and clustering of type this to conducive most California Southern in sectors The economy. regional the and ridership system to both beneficial reciprocally be would stations HSR around industry and business of concentration The low. is areas/CBDs downtown near or in located jobs California Southern of percentage the corridors, HSR with areas metropolitan other to Compared incentives. policy additional zoning and supportive through encouraged be should and valuable is hubs transit other and stations HSR near jobs these locate to opportunity The network. transportation enhanced and livability increased region’s the to thanks created, been otherwise have not would that California Southern project costsof$179m. estimated upon based County Orange in jobs 5,000 to 3,500 additional the of Construction Anaheim Regional Intermodal Transportation workers). Center (ARTIC) will create an 15,200 multi-year approximately (or jobs for one-year employment full-time, 57,000 over of equivalent provide the will it system, the of II Phase for work design/engineering with Togetherunemployed. been otherwise have would who workers California Southern to 4%) @ (NPV $701m of benefit income regional a contribute    &$+65 AR  LWV   KLJKVSHHG Y  FRQVWUXFWLRQ V\VWHP

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3 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA III. ECONOMIC + COMMUNITY BENEFITS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL 3DUNLQJ ‡ 7KH ‡ the capitalcostsofconstruction. of all or some recoup governments local help could rights air of sale the but uses, pedestrian-oriented out crowd to tend which facilities, parking only not could structures mitigate ofthe potential negative urban types design consequences of These conventional market. given development a transit-oriented in increases for demand market the as structures the to added progressively uses office and retail, housing, with future, the in air rights projects, capable of accommodating increased building densities to diverted thesealternativemobilitynetworks. support be could space), per ($40,000 I Phase for million $565 as go toward the construction of parking facilities, estimated to cost as much otherwise would that funds the of Some modes. other via stations HSR to reduced with low-cost connectivity concepts that would deliver commuters conventional traffic modeling conducted by the CHSRA, could be partially rail stations in Southern California, estimated at over 14,000 spaces under open spaceamenities. city-owned land or publicly-sponsored financing for associated parking or of contributions through either projects, housing affordable for especially  ODUJH  VWUXFWXUHV  DPRXQWV   DW RI   +65 QHZ   SDUNLQJ VWDWLRQV   UHTXLUHG FRXOG  EH  DW  GHVLJQHG  +65  DQG   DQG H[LVWLQJ  FRQVWUXFWHG  FRPPXWHU  DV   actual on the Palmdale/LA segment, for a total of 57,700 FT 1Y jobs. 1Y FT 57,700 of total a for segment, Palmdale/LA the on work/engineering preliminary for 4,000 roughly and segment LA/Anaheim the specific to Southern California is estimated in the range of 53,700 FT 1Y jobs for employment construction-related release, press CHSRA recent a to According would “continuetogrow tomore than450,000by2035andbeyond.” economy the in security.”jobs Relatedand services transportation, tourism, in jobs system—including the from indirectly and directly “both resultingpermanent jobs 320,000 than more with 2012-2020, one-year period the 160,000 full-time in jobs) 600,000 generate 1Y] [FT of directly equivalent would the system (or HSR jobs construction-related the scale, statewide a On i. JOB A. (as opposedtotherawnumberofjobs). created be to likely jobs of types the and health, community of emissions), GHG terms in (specifically quality air on impact potential the including region, explicitly quantify, but would also contribute not positively to did the Southern study California CSI the that benefits “downstream” various were explored Less runways, on times thanks toasubstantialpercentage tohigh-speedrail. oftripsdiverted idling reduced from airports and airlines to savings cost fares, a train reduction in competitively-pricedvehicle hours travelled from and traffic accidents, travelers and operational intercity and commuters to including savings California, in system rail high-speed new a to attributable directly study for the CHSRA that took into account a vast array of value-creating factors In 2007, Cambridge Systematics (CSI) conducted a benefit-cost high speed rail

workers Short- toIntermediate-TermShort- EconomicEffectofCAHSR S E C ONOMI employed, this total will be lower, as most workers are likely to arelikely lower,workers most be as will total this employed, C A ND C OMMUNI OF

HIGH T -S Y PEED

BENEFI 2 (In terms of terms (In RA TS IL 4

THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA III III. ECONOMIC + COMMUNITY BENEFITS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL regional income benefit amounts to $701m (NPV @ 4%), equivalent to over to equivalent 4%), @ (NPV $701m to amounts benefit income the regional horizon, spending nine-year this During 2020. and 2011 between levels employment normal to return progressive the a assuming project, over the of workers duration unemployed otherwise toward go likely would that benefit income regional the estimate can we Palmdale/LAsegments, and LA/Anaheim Applying this metric to the estimated construction costs for both ARTIC and the spending. infrastructure of $1b per created jobs 1Y FT direct/indirect 20,000 of metric accepted generally a employs also CHSRA the calculations, its For persists through 2012 (when construction must commence under ARRA rules). unemployment of level high a assuming unemployed, be otherwise would who 10%, around meaning that the project currentlywill provide full-time, multi-year jobs is to 1,540 workers sector to construction closer the be in will Unemployment California 15,400. Southern in system CAHSR the of construction of number total the Thus years. 3.75 average an for last will job construction-related each sources, CHSRA various on Based phase.) retain their jobs for multiple years over the duration of the project’s construction GOING FIGURE

TO 1.

OTHERWISE ESTIMATED

NUMBER UNEMPLOYED

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WORKERS 1 Y

JOBS

CREATED

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SOUTHERN

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CALIFORNIA workers employed workers , BY

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CAHSR

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approximately 127,000, or nearly 40% of the statewide total. Overall, the CAHSR captureprojectedto regionis California Southern the 2035), and now between (createdsystem CAHSR the to attributable jobs permanent new 320,000 the Of ii. would peakatjustunder4,000intheyear2015[seeFigure 1;AppendixA]. year one any in created jobs most The unemployed. the for jobs 1Y FT 16,700 by 2030. by annually revenue tax additional in million $103 approximately generate turn in Orange County is likely to (OCBC), capture 23,000 Council of those new Business jobs by 2020, which County will Orange the by study 2008 a to According transportation infrastructure. better by afforded benefits mobility and the to live thanks to business place do a as attractiveness and desirability increased region’s the reflects growth of rate accelerated The HSR. without scenario no-project a in occur would that growth the beyond respectively, 1.3%, and 1.0% of increase growthemployment and population additional an induce to expected is system compatible with locationsinhigher-density corporateoffice settings. proportion of jobs in the services, government, and FIRE sectors, ie. those most tendency toattractahigher a similar to exhibit likely construction (7%).HSRis and (9%), services human/health 11%), estate, (finance/insurance/real FIRE (14%), government system: rail commuter regional existing the Metrolink, on ridership systemwide of (51%) half over just for Currently,account sectors five that thisnetworkmakespossible? pool labor expanded the of advantage take to order in network, rail high-speed a of result a as operations their concentrate reorganizeand California Southern in sectors economic existing might how and purposes, commuting/business for network the use to likely most be types will workers of new types What synergies. create of and California Southern in advantages economic regional proponents,rail mightbothreinforce lessexaminedishowhigh-speed existing CAHSR by cited extensively and well-known are benefits job-related the While services andtourism. professionaland business in gains additional with sector (FIRE) realestate and

Long-Term Employment 3 The majority of employment growth will be in the finance, insurance finance, the in be growthwill employment of majority The

5 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA III. ECONOMIC + COMMUNITY BENEFITS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL sources, improve resource efficienciesandreduce pollution.” energy clean to transition to economy entire the enable will that services and “products as defined was economy “green” core The 13%. only by expanded a as state the in jobs total economy while grew36% businesses these in Employment California whole. the of that than higher substantially was 2008 and 1995 concluded between subsectors “green” for and rate growth annualized economy average the California that the the across studied jobs tank, “green” think of Francisco-based San distribution a 10, Next by report recent A fields ofenergy, real transportation, estate,andmanufacturing. representwill many growthbut emergingnew in “green” acrosssubsectors the sectors, economic traditional in be to likely are some California, Southern in Of the 127,000 new permanent jobs forecast to be created by the CAHSR system iii. CAHSR’s ImpactonSouthern California’s“Green”Economy statewide ballot proposition to halt implementation of AB 32, the main enabling a sponsored recently have strategy reduction GHG California’s of Opponents fast-growing “green” specializations [seeAppendixB]. of concentration high a having as study 10 Next the by identified supersectors in created be would HSR to attributable California Southern in jobs new permanent the of 77% employment, 2030 of projection CHSRA’s the to According economy. green California’s Southern of expansion and growth continued the for catalyst major a be would project CAHSR of completion the is constructed, system rail high-speed a not or whether California in growth employment future of proportion increasing an become to slated are jobs “green” of types these While 2]. [Figure system CAHSR the by created services and demand goods for increased from benefit directly would that occupations of types the greaterin study,this detail of insights identify the to Extrapolating possible is it including theproduction ofalternativefuels,motorvehicles,andequipment. 1,875%, jumped jobs transportation green County, Orange In 25). (p. 77% by by 35% between 1995 and 2008 (p. 22), while energy efficiency jobs increased grew jobs generation energy example, for area, LosAngeles the In region. and subsector by growth “green”employment quantified further study 10 Next The 4

moderate help increaseswould it in because vehicle solution miles the travelled of ( part as cited been has rail High-speed nitrogen oxide, whichcontributesto the formationofsmog. and ozone, ground-level particles, exhaust diesel including matter, particulate arefine culprits prematureyear.main 8,800 a The estimated deaths an in factor a requirementsis quality air basic meet to failure the California, In B in thesesubsectors. growth job accelerate to likely HSR with transportation, and generation energy “green” promoting technologies and industries new of emission form the GHG in reductions and growth economic contrary, of convergence the the on indicate would, to 10 appear Next and CHSRA the of analysis combined The recover in2010andbeyond. to begins economy California the as just losses job further cause potentially and businesses, and consumers for costs energy raise will emissions CO2 on curbs regulatory that claiming by 32 AB of rollback temporary a for rationale the bolstered have economists Some levels. pre-recession or 5.5%, to drop rates unemployment long-term average until strategy, this behind legislation Transportation Green Building Energy Generation S “ Financial Services Energy Efficiency . AI G UB R EEN S R E QU CT ” O A R LI T Y FIGURE FIRE Services TCU/Manufacturing Construction/Services TCU S A UPE FFILI RS 2. AT E CONCEPTUAL ED CT

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MATRI project financing for related green technologies,green carbon offsetstrading,venture capital installation, retrofits ofexistingbuildings consulting/engineering fornewsystems HSRoperations fuels tosupport clean vehicles/equipment,alternative HSR stations materials, real estatedevelopmentnear design/construction, advanced production topowerHSRtrains solar, wind,andotherrenewable energy S PO VMT Y X ST T OF EN EM

) relative to population growth. GREEN T I A L R

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6 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA III. ECONOMIC + COMMUNITY BENEFITS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL Even if CO statewide total. the of 40% for account which emissions, GHG transportation-related lower potential to rail’s high-speed recognize authors the as even developed,” being still are methods “analysis that fact the to due included, not is emissions GHG reduced of value the study, benefit-cost CHSRA the in quantified already are travel fromhighway pollution air with associated externalities cost Whereasthe atrs uprie f h coc t ue S fr nrrgoa ad longer- and intraregional for HSR use to choice the of supportive patterns development and policies land-use encouraging in part their do cities local If on intraregional tripsonly[seeAppendixC]. per-capitaa based into lbs translates 23.1 thus decreaseof HSR to attributable likely that there will be an assignable market value to CO moreit makes level, federal and state the both at consideration currentlyunder the emergence of carbon pricing schemes, including “cap and trade” regulations ipae n prpsegr et basis. seat per-passenger a on airplane an of that one-tenth and vehicle single-occupant a of energy the one-fifth little as a as consume would HSR system, California the for adopted ultimately technology the on Depending efforts. compliance regional in role valuable and direct a HSR give will emissions GHG reduce to aim 375’s SB else, nothing If related toSB375implementation. standards specified meet that jurisdictions local or targets, reduction exceed future. The State of California may also award discretionary grants to regions that be nearly 21 million. The 484 million lbs annual reduction in CO in reduction annual lbs million 484 The million. to 21 estimated nearly be is population regional SCAG’s time, that At target. 2035 the to relevant most be would impact reduction GHG its service), limited more with 2017 as early as potentially (and 2020 for planned operations of start HSR’s With year. base 2005 a from reduction emission per-capitaGHG percent a as expressedbe likely will 375 SB by defined 2035 Regionaland targets2020 for corridor Palmdale-Anaheimsegments asforecast byCHSRAridershipestimates. the in concentrated high trips the commuting given of benefits volume quality air HSR’s from disproportionately benefit to emissions associated with its passenger operations. Southern California stands GHG the eliminate virtually will trains high-speed power to energy renewable 2 reductions attributable to HSR cannot be accurately monetized today, 5 h CSAs net o s 100% use to intent CHSRA’s The 2 emissions in the near 2 emissions trip generally be split equally between the two MPOs.” two the between equally split be generally trip preliminary guidelines recommend that “travel associated with an MPO-to-MPO CARB’s travel, interregionalfrom emissions apportioning of terms In (CARB). Board Resources Air California the by developed being regulations targetsthe reductionunder toward savings these of portion a count plausibly energy-intensive,can morethey are that transport of modes other over trips distance DUH areas urban high-density in people year,and a <$15,000 earning households in people minorities, users, rail analysis, multivariate In stations. transit from but most public passengers transportation meet this target while walking to and who’s a normal weight. normal a who’s someone for than person obese an for year a more $1,400 journal averages spending the by research new Concurrently, and healthy. and fit stay to walking, brisk as such activity, physical moderate 22 in least minutes daily at average adults that recommends Control Disease for Center The chronicmedical conditionssuchasdiabetesandhighbloodpressure. and obesity, of incidences percentages, fat body increased in factor of routinefor exercisedaily opportunities contributing lack a biking—as or walking via consequent cities—and American in pointing travel auto emerged of prevalence has the consensus to scientific broad a complex, are diseases community between relationship weight-related behind factors root the the While environment. built the examined and health have studies of number A C. COMMUNI intra- andinterregional trips[seeAppendixD]. pounds, or a combined per-capita decrease of 166.5 lbs in 2035 based on both are notnecessarilyoverweight orobese. for people under 60, and by as much as $500 for people over 60, for those who $250 by costs medical reduceannual can activity physical of amounts modest region that is diverted from either the auto or air travel network would represent SCAG a the in ending or originating system rail high-speed the on trip distance annual reduction in CO creditable net reduction in GHG emissions. Using this more liberal standard, the  PRUH  OLNHO\ 7 Overall, fewer than half of American adults achieve this target, this achieve adults American of half than fewer Overall,  T WR Y  VSHQG H E A 2 emissions attributable to HSR rises to over three billion L  9 T • The Trust for Public Land (TPL) also estimates that estimates also (TPL) Land Public for Trust The H  PLQXWHV  ZDONLQJ 10  elh Affairs Health WR  DQG  IURP 6 Therefore, any long- any Therefore,  WUDQVLW hw medical shows  GDLO\ 8

7 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA III. ECONOMIC + COMMUNITY BENEFITS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL Brinkerhoff and CSI, it is possible to estimate the number of high-speed rail high-speed of number the estimate to possible is it CSI, and Brinkerhoff Based on the CAHSR Ridership & Revenue forecasts jointly prepared by Parsons- upon thenature andqualityoftheneighborhooddesignaround transitstations. dependent course of is term long the in materialize benefits health these not or Whether communities. transit-oriented of development the and patterns travel high-speed rail into connecting local transit systems encourages more efficient of expansion and integration the as time the over accelerating with benefits economic California, Southern throughout health community improve to can help it others, in access transit multimodal of level enhanced an provide and walkable for districts in areas opportunities that were not previously served by alternative modes of new transit, create will rail high-speed that extent the To 6RPH ‡ 7KH ‡ are benefits Health based ontwoassumptionsaboutshiftsinuserbehavior: HSR. to attributable benefits health the quantify thereby and activity, physical recommended daily of levels minimum for targets meet to induced are but sedentary or inactive be otherwise would who passengers +RXVHKROGV ‡ and leisure trips. of physical activity by using alternative modes of transit for other personal level their increase generally and stations, from transit-oriented and to directly walk will incentivize to policies residentsnew these of residentialSome a component). with development of implementation the upon earlier, stated as (contingent, rail high-speed without areas surrounding of that than higher rate a at increase will California Southern in stations levels of physical activity and fitness will not only accrue to individual to users, buttranslate intodirect costsavingstogovernment programs. accrue only not will fitness and activity physical of levels increased to due spending medical annual in reduction any that means beneficiaries of public health insurance programs such as Medi-Cal, which benefit from increased levels ofphysicalactivity. thereby and trip the of portion some for routines daily their into biking or and/ walking incorporate likely will station, the from egress or origin of jobs in business districts, even if their trips involve auto travel at the point  QXPEHU  RI  WKH    LQWUDUHJLRQDO HDUQLQJ RI  UHVLGHQWV  \HDU   FRPPXWHUV ORFDWHG  ZLWKLQ   ZKR DUH   D  XVH  DOVR KDOIPLOH  KLJKVSHHG  KLJKO\  RI  OLNHO\  KLJKVSHHG  UDLO   WR WR   EH DFFHVV   UDLO WKH    from 75% in 2006 to 79% in 2008, and it is reasonable to assume that the take that commuters of 90% assume Aroundsimilar. be to will rail high-speed reasonable for percentage is it and 2008, in 79% to 2006 in 75% from increased purposes commuting for week a days more or four train the those riding (2008), Survey Onboard Metrolink recent most the to According year. per days 200 or week, per times 4 least at train the take would commuter HSR active” “physically a analysis, this of purposes the For active.” “physically as establish, and consistent daily exercise is necessary for a user to be reasonably to classified difficult is use of frequency their their needs, for transportation HSR regional using of result a as undertaken activity physical from benefits health accrue also may riders these although because, out netted be must trips number of 1. rail systemin2030undervariousscenarios: high-speed the on commuters intraregional California Southern of number the The 2008 Revenue & Ridership Study and updated 2009 Business Plan estimate numbers, it becomes necessary to convert the number of number the convert to necessary becomes it numbers, Once the number of commuting/business trips is isolated from the total ridership or similarroutes. parallel on trains faster to transferring passengers Metrolink from come would base ridership CAHSR’s of some least at since service, rail regionalcommuter existing fromMetrolink,the comes California Southern for reasonableestimate most shorter best, The higher. much be these to likely is for commuters of proportion the but trips, 55:45, be to projected is split the system, CAHSR the on ridership of statewide for stated, previously breakdownAs trips. personal/leisure to trips detailed business/commuting of fine-grain, ratio the specifically a type, trip by provide travel intraregional not does forecast CHSRA’s 2.

short-distance tripswhollywithintheLosshort-distance Angeles/OrangeBasin. at 50%, priced 77%, or fares 83% of HSR the average equivalent with airfare. Anaheim), These riders undertake at terminus (southern only I Phase these estimatescountridershipwithintheSanDiegoregion. LA/Orange, within trips to addition In inflation. beyond costs real in 8% travel assumed either to remain stable relative to 2008 costs, or to increase auto/air of cost the with Empire), Inland the via Diego San to extension II Phase plus Irvine, to segment County Orange of (extension System Full users for the calculation of health benefits per user. Personal/leisure trips back into the into back

8 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA III. ECONOMIC + COMMUNITY BENEFITS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL physical regular activity for differentto age groups study TPL the by assigned values inflation-adjusted using Finally, 400 tripendsontheHSRsystemannually. “physically active” user riding the a train at least 200 days Thus, per year would make return.an average of the for travel of mode alternative or arrangement, ridesharing car, a use regularly might 10% other the while roundtrip, train the FIGURE reducing the likely percentage of HSR riders earning below the annual income annual the below earning riders HSR of percentage likely the reducing Business Plan anticipates higher, premium fares than previously publicized, thus CHSRA updated the users, transit public of percentage high disproportionately a represent $15,000 below earning households though Even CHSRA. the by adopted ultimately scenario pricing realized.the on depend be will savings of also extent The could programs insurance health government-sponsored to savings cost direct some but expenses, medical out-of-pocket reduced form of the in users the to directly accrue would benefits these of majority The scenario [seeFigure 3;AppendixE]. ridership the on depending 4%), at dollars 2010 in discounted (2020-2035, period fifteen-year a over million $132 and million $50 communities, between total transit-oriented would walkable, of development the with tandem in achieved California, Southern in HSR to attributable outcomes Improvedhealth benefits toHSRriders. Average annualtripspercommuter SC % HSRcommuters4xormore/week Full System,+8%increase, fares at77% Full System,+8%increase, fares at50% Phase IOnly, fares at83% Phase IOnly, fares at77% Phase IOnly, fares at50% EN 3. SUMMARY AR IO

OF

HIGH - SPEE D RAIL

COMMUNITY 11 , we can calculate the aggregate health

HEALTH R EGION T O 17,200,000 20,300,000 10,000,000 7,800,000 8,300,000 TA

BENEFITS L

A IN L TR TRA- IP 79% 400 S C 13,588,000 16,037,000 OMMU 6,162,000 6,557,000 7,900,000 TR IP S T E R % 60yrsorolder Annual healthbenefit(<60) Annual healthbenefit(60+) C ON T O 33,970 40,093 15,405 16,393 19,750

V U E on countyandstatehealthbudgetswouldbemore substantial. subsidized other and impact fiscal potential the adopted, programs.be Werefareto lower scenario a Medi-Cal for qualify to necessary generally threshold S RS E RS ION

<60 30,233 35,682 13,710 14,589 17,578 Y RS 60+ 3,737 4,410 1,695 1,803 2,173 Y RS $250 $500 11% A BENEFI NNU $19,737,364 $23,294,680 $11,475,212 $8,950,665 $9,524,426 A L T (2035)

HE A L T H

S UM (2020-2035) $112,175,037 $132,392,631 $50,870,075 $54,130,977 $65,218,045

OF

BENEFI TS

9 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA I V IV: SB 375 + HIGH-SPEED RAIL SB 375 does not override local zoning or land use controls, except in the limited criteria. additional broader of set a meet but RTP) the in such as designated (formally area project Communities Sustainable a in located be only not must it review, For a project to be considered “transit priority” and qualify for streamlined CEQA environmental impactreport. on global warming or the regional transportation network” (Sec. 15 (a)(2)) in the growth- inducing impacts or address“cumulative impacts from … to trips generated by the requirementproject the from transit- exempt are a they in area, inaccessible situated project similarly-sized a to compared emissions GHG in reduction net a achieve to assumed are projects priority” “transit Because review process, depending onthefulfillmentofothercriteria[Figure 4]. “transit priority” and eligible for exemption from CEQA review or a more limited considered are areas use qualifying in land located local projects Development or restrictions. ordinances zoning existing to reference without densities residentialincreased and to development infill for suitable areas directed such all identify are (MPOs) organizations planning metropolitan 375, SB Under transit corridors that is vacant, underutilized, or zoned for a non-residential use. major to close land of development the for providesincentives which SCS, the The adequate provision of housing for all income levels is a major focal point of oriented development. coordinated land use and transportation planning that supports Plan compact, transit- Transportation Sustainable Regional throughtargets reduction the GHG meet will regions how the outlines SCS of (RTP).The to addition element the (SCS) includes Strategy 375 Communities SB of component major A A. A S B N

375A

O THE SU V E RV ND STA IE

IN W HIGH A BLE COMMUNI -S PEED T Y S RA TRAT IL : EGY (SCS) MA MA MA M M US B T AFFO O &HUWDLQ ‡ 1HZ ‡ High-speed railwilladvancethepolicyobjectivesofSB 375inseveralways: that hinderthelocalityfrom meetingitsshare ofregional housingneeds.” constraints removegovernmental to efforts local “demonstrate standards“and development and zoning appropriate with … available sites make to taken be will that actions identify “to analysis and program formal a undertake to MPO each directs SCS the time, same the At (RHNA). Assessment Needs Housing Regional the under units moderate-income or low- for allocation their fulfill to yet state the of regions in approval denied projects housing affordable of case RA UILDING PEN SP INIMUM INIMUM E XIMUM XIMUM XIMUM N R S ult tast ordr” n hne potnte fr tast priority” “transit for housing projects thatreduce regional VMT andGHGemissions. opportunities hence and corridors” transit quality “high- of reach geographical the expand will connections local increased I D T A S AC BILI E  T F D D B PR E FFI OP O DQG LOO EN UILDING I  STA T O SHUIRUPDQFH Y RE C S  J R I IEN R H[SDQGHG E T N A CT CO Y C FIGURE Q R C E F A UI E Y RR F A R R OO R R E EMEN IDO OM 4. A AT T  P PROJECT  UHJLRQDO IO ( R R MAJ PHDVXUHV Plus oneofthefollowing: IN TS F T AR) O R

REQUIREMENTS

 WUDQVLW  15% more energy-efficient thancodeminimum; 20% unitsformoderate-income,10% 25% lesswaterusagethanhouseholdaverage RI or 5%unitsforvery-low incomehouseholds • In-lieu feessufficienttoresult inequivalent  HTXLW\  number ofaffordable unitselsewhere  DFUHV KXEV

(if >26%non-residential) FOR   SHU  DQG 8 acres or200units FRPELQLQJ >50% residential

20 unitsperacre  SB  75,000 sq.ft.  low-income, 375“ DFFHVVLELOLW\ 0.50 mi 0.75  OR UHVLGHQWV TRANSIT  +65

 PRIORITY RI    WKH VHUYLFH DVVHVVHG  SURMHFW ” STATUS  ZLWK  LQ   10 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IV: SB 375 + HIGH-SPEED RAIL &KDQJHV ‡ 7KH ‡ 7KH ‡ Furthermore, itmustnowtakeintoaccount: economic incentivesanddisincentives.” of use the and communities, of walkability accessibility,the and service transit expanded patterns, development residential as such choices, the policy of assess effects to able be “should modeling impact traffic 375, SB Under stop. transit a to proximity with development mixed-use high-density, as such trips, that models accurately utilize measure the benefits to of land use strategies encouraged aimed at reducing be vehicle will MPOs CARB. by review to subject practices regionalmodeling with development, close-in of benefits capturethe better to generated are models transportation state how reforms also 375 SB B /RQJGLVWDQFH ‡ ,QWUDUHJLRQDO ‡ .

and VMT passenger rail expansion Section III,AirQuality). under explored further is reductions such of value and quantity total (The CARB. by developed being currently guidelines under emissions GHG in reduction net a as creditable partially be also will Anaheim) and Norwalk, stations in the SCAG region (Palmdale, Sylmar, Los Angeles Union Station, euto tres e b CR, h rgltr atoiy n hre of charge in authority regulatory the implementing andmonitoringcompliancewithSB375. CARB, by set targets reduction regional achieve California Southern help and GHG in reduction net a to residential andemployment-baseduses. of spectrum HSR full a with development of nodes intensified become stations if improve likely will transit, by accessible jobs of percentage the and transit public by served population the of percentage the including 375), SB under modeling impact traffic into incorporated (and RTP the CH   UHODWLRQVKLS ,PSDFW A NGE  LQ   RI WUDYHO  S FRPPXWLQJ   INT HQKDQFHG WULSV  EHWZHHQ  DQG  RA XQGHUWDNHQ  FFI ODQG    WUDQVLW ODQG WULSV C  GHYHORSPHQW

I  XVH  MP GLYHUWHG   VHUYLFH YLD  GHQVLW\ ACT  +65

  M OHYHOV IURP  RULJLQDWLQJ  DQG  ODELING OLNHO\   DXWR KRXVHKROG  RQ  WR  WKH  DQG   UHVXOW RU  DERYH   HQGLQJ DLU  YHKLFOH   IURP WR  +65  DW  KLJKZD\   RZQHUVKLS DQ\  ZLOO  RI  OHDG  WKH  RU     (IIHFW ‡ 6SHHG ‡ 0RGH ‡ emissions and bicyclepedestriantrips   RI  VSOLWWLQJ DQG  SULFLQJ  IUHTXHQF\  WKDW  VWUDWHJLHV  DOORFDWHV  GD\V  RQ  DQG   WULSV YHKLFOH  KRXUV  EHWZHHQ   PLOHV RI  RSHUDWLRQ   WUDYHOHG DXWRPRELOH  RI   DQG WUDQVLW   WUDQVLW JUHHQKRXVH  VHUYLFH  FDUSRRO  JDV   11 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA V V: ZONING/LAND USE POLICIES eiet n cmue ue bs wo il id t ovnet o incorporate to convenient transit into their everyday routines. A number of steps can be taken to capitalize it find will who base user commuter and resident built-in the augmenting whole, a as system CAHSR the for benefits ridership of reciprocalgrowth supportive and economic for opportunities provideboth turn in will TOD policies zoning adopting in municipalities of cooperation The SCS. the with consistent projects transportation for funding state of share possible largest the secure to order in standards development and plans general update to governments local moreon pressure intensify TOD but sector, make private the onlyto attractive not will they intended, manner the in work incentives 375’s SB If application.) its in limited more was 2002, in passed CEQA, under providedexemption infill previousurban (The 375. SB under criteria qualifying allow for the minimum residential densities and other requirements CEQA to specified as changed for is zoning eligible if TOD, projects for of opportunities increasing thereby category exemption, the broaden will 375 SB said, That site-specific andresponsive tolocalconcerns. be to have will development intensive more for strategies their Any in communities. (TOD) development transit-oriented of kind “right” the to conducive and planning officials will ultimately determine the best land uses and regulations corridor.HSR Localthe along municipalities policymakers individual control of the to aresubject patterns such influence that policies use land and zoning the definition, By principles. Growth” “Smart with consistent California, in transit around patterns development compact moredenser, encourage to quest its in SB 375 strikes a delicate balance between local control and statewide mandates D upon the anticipated increase in real estate values and demand for housing/ for demand and values estate real in increase anticipated the upon A ZONING . E E V ELOPMEN XP A / NDED L T A (T ND OD )

O U PPO S E RT

POLI UNI T IE C S IE FO S R T RA N S I T - OR IEN T ED and parking. of TOD placemaking specifically around HSR stations: employment-based uses success the to integral components use land the addressesof section two This B. development and growth future in patterns onaregional scale. difference significant a make to limited too remains project Communities Sustainable a as qualify to density of level In many localities, however, the amount of land currently zoned at an appropriate offices, residences, of shops andrestaurants through zoningpractices. village supportive complete a become to slated neighborhood, mixed-use new a of point focal the the be example, will station Metrolink for Canyon Anaheim Anaheim, In 375. SB of goals the with are consistent stations, and transit their ordinancesaround density of zoning levels higher of accommodate to review ahead planning a initiated already have cities Some /RFDO ‡ ,QFHQWLYHEDVHG ‡ 6SHFLDO ‡ &LWLHV ‡ office spacethatwillbecreated byHSR: /RFDO ‡ PR as welllong-termmaintenanceofthespaces. needed to support the pedestrian/bicycle traffic generated by hub stations, improvementsstreetscape and spaces public the for techniques) other or of landadjacenttostations. value the enhance further will 375 SB under projects “transit-priority” for more attractive to the private sector. Relief from CEQA review requirements parking requirements, andurbandesignstandards. zoning regulationsmodify related to building heights, allowable densities, coordinating joint public-private development proposals on these parcels. and soliciting in roleproactive a take also can areas, station with overlap adjacent tostationareas.   JRYHUQPHQWV  IN DQG UHGHYHORSPHQW  ´RYHUOD\µ C  IPLE SXEOLF S  ]RQLQJ OFT   DJHQFLHV  GLVWULFWV FDQ   LGHQWLI\  OD DJHQFLHV FDQ

  P  DURXQG EH FDQ L AC   VRXUFHV XVHG  LGHQWLI\  EM WR  VWDWLRQ   WR A WKH   KING PDNH RI  YDFDQW   ILQDQFLQJ  H[WHQW DUHDV  WKHVH  DQG   FDQ WKDW   GHYHORSPHQW WKURXJK  XQGHUXWLOL]HG   EH WKHLU  LPSOHPHQWHG   YDOXHFDSWXUH MXULVGLFWLRQV  ORFDWLRQV  SDUFHOV  WR      12 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA V: ZONING/LAND USE POLICIES effectively. executed are connections intermodal and development area station future both 10 County’s the of each of radius Metrolink stations, highlighting four-milethe enormous potential for increased a ridership if within located are jobs and population County’s Orange of two-thirds OCTA, the to According 5]. [Figure criteria “transit-priority” 375’s SB by specified distance mile ½ - ¼ the than HSR stations should encompass a larger radius with (1-3 miles) cities around station by areas level local the at undertaken efforts planning TOD Accordingly, needs ofitsusers. the serve best would stations HSR to trips), uses employment-based of proximity intraregionalthe for higher or 80% interregional, for (55% base ridership commuters and business travelers forecast to constitute the majority of CAHSR’s With below. further discussed as uses, office/hospitality/tourism to conducive morethem throughputmakes of that volume high a have stations HSR airports, Like different? stations HSR for principles placemaking TOD the makes What locations. HSR on overlaid directly be cannot it “walkable but appropriate, a be indeed of may radius” idea conventional the lines, rail subway/light and commuter clustered within a ½-mile distance from the station stop. For station areas along uses, neighborhood other of mix secondary a projectswith housing supporting significantly foot on diminishes beyond to one-quarter one-half mile. SB transit 375 extends this model by access to riders of willingness the that showing research on based hub, transit given a around distance walking 10-minute a Traditionally, community planning efforts have focused on the area encompassing n h itriw cnutd o ti suy tee a a ra consensus broad a was there study, this for conducted interviews the In i. transit access. area around HSR those stations, with particularly enhanced levels of intermodal even further, by applying its regulatory incentives to a much larger geographical “transit priority,” SB 375 misses an opportunity to expand opportunities for TOD of definition its in rail high-speed by carried trips interregional long-distance of type the and transit local between distinguish to failing respects,by some In

Office/Hospitality Uses 12

more efficient access to a well-educated workforce, services, and opportunities the of economic activity in a given area, primarily because businesses have to greater, refers Agglomeration benefits. increases in productivity agglomeration and output that occur as a result of concentrated levels valuable to lead can stations HSR around industry and commerce of clustering the generally, More network. “bedroom” residential formerly throughoutridership the stimulated Metrolink has along corridors communities to uses employment-based of addition the a or work cite years, twenty last the Over commuters purpose. trip primary their as appointment business Metrolink of 89% use. transit to reinforcements strongest the of one be can areas stations HSR to centers job of proximity The policies inanticipationofHSR. use zoning/land their re-examine they as focus uses employment-based should on heavily cities that participants private-sector and public- both among FIGURE 5. LAND

USE CONCEPT FOR

HIGH - SPEED

RAIL

STAT IONS 13 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA V: ZONING/LAND USE POLICIES ead eeae b sse rdrhp n nw eeomn projects development new and ridership system by generated demand anticipated the accommodate to more wanting typically engineers/developers traffic and stations HSR to/from driving discourage to less wanting generally advocates transit with issue, use land key a as emerge to likely also Parkingis ii. a boasts Anaheim Convention Center while and Disneyland subway), (via the Line planned Anaheim RedRapid Connection). existing the (via Hollywood and to close is Station Center Staples the Live, Nokia as Union such venues tourist and entertainment major California: Southern of geography particular the connecting and given travelers, vacation and business to HSR attractive particularly be will systems by accessible made destinations of constellation The section ofusers. project TOD would significantly multi-use reinforce patronageof of HSR type stations by This a broad development. cross- integrated single, a in tourists and retail,workers both accommodatessuccessfully it parking, and hotel, a offices, a useful prototype for the proposed CAHSR system [Figure 6]. A combination of JR Towers, a high-rise complex built atop the Nayoga HSR station in Japan, offers HSR systemasacatalystforfuture economicgrowth. the using in interest strong a demonstrate station Anaheim the above located stations over the long term. Already, conceptual plans for a 25-story office tower California Southern incentives, could similarly bolster and create new concentrations of employment near HSR planning and development proper the With these In cases, HSRhasbeeninoperationforyearsorevendecades. Paris. for 20.1% and Tokyo for 15.6% regional with total compared employment, of 2.5% only contains Angeles Los Downtown dominant. less and smaller much are CBDs California’s Southern contrast, By France. in line a Paris-LyonTGV the with does as employment, CBDs metropolitan of share largehigh relatively services line Tokyo-Osaka the Japan, In countries. other in corridors HSR well-patronized successful, of characteristic key a (CBDs), Agglomeration economies often take the form of strong central business districts for integrationandcollaboration.

Parking parking impacts atcommuterrailstations feedingintotheHSRcorridor. area for HSR stations to be as much as 100 miles in some cases, with significant as an hour to catch their train in the morning. The CHSRA expects the catchment much as drive riders Some stations. terminus and outlying at especially areas, that parking needs were greater than ever anticipated, due to the large catchment Metrolinkis by learned lessons valuable the of One operations. of outset the at the additional parking capacity will most likely still need to be built and provided Regardless of the parking mitigation strategies ultimately implemented, most of needs. parking anticipated reduce might that concepts connectivity other to minded Metro and the OCTA have requested that the CHSRA modelers to be more open- requirementsboth parking at these officials that impose, impacts would design planning/ urban negative and burden financial enormous the Recognizing F]. Appendix [see stations these at ridership increased accommodate to Anaheim EIR/EIS statewide and Norwalk, Station, Union initial at parking new of amounts the vast for calls currently for CHSRA the by performed modeling Traffic surrounding stationareas. FIGURE 6. JR

TOWERS , NAYOGA ( JAPAN ) HSR

STATION 14 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA V: ZONING/LAND USE POLICIES values and economic activity around stations, is still determining how these how determining still land is stations, increased around activity from economic and governments values local to back flows revenue anticipating while Authority, The facilities. parking associated and construction station for arrangement cost-sharing a negotiate to yet have CHSRA the and cities Local private developeralone. the by financed be cannot projects TOD most for parking the space, structured $20,000-$40,000/ At well. as development new the of result a as eliminated is that parking lot surface Metrolink-dedicated any replace to but site, the to adding are private they that uses the the for parking provide to because needs only not expensive, developer prohibitively still are requirementsequity, as parking contribute to willing is and owns agency an that land on ventures In the past, when transit agencies have contemplated public-private development economically viablepurposes. more other, for developed be could that land urban valuable built consuming area, of ft. sq. Union million 1.2 at to minimum spaces at equate 3,600 would example, additional for an Station, of provision The constitutes TOD. also to cost obstacle its necessity,an a is stations HSR at parking adequate If FIGURE 7. SI X TH

STREET

GARAGE , DOWNTOWN

RIVERSIDE , CALIFORNIA Beyond their steep financial cost, parking facilities can also compromise the compromise also can facilities parking cost, financial steep their Beyond may rely asasource offinancingforstationmaintenanceandoperations. governments local which on development transit-oriented from capture value maximizing to and passengers by facilities HSR of accessibility the ensuring to structures themselves and their integration into station areas, will be critical both The number, location, and pricing of parking spaces, as well as the design of the costs. these finance to debt issuing for basis the as used be can revenueflows was constructed in the first phase to satisfy animmediateneed[Figurewas constructedinthefirstphasetosatisfy 7]. Parking futuredemand. of case in parking over units housing accommodate to configuredstructureStreetwas parking Sixth city’s the of platform the 1990’s– over time. A similar concept was envisioned in downtown Riverside in the early increases gradually California Southern in split mode the of share transit’s as future, such as groundfloor retail, with residential or offices on the upper levels, the in uses other into reusedadaptively structureconverted be a and could that friendly uses. For HSR parking facilities, one innovative option pedestrian- would be more to build out crowding by areas, station of walkability and aesthetics rights to future developers could also allow them to recoup of their original part air valuable of sale the stations, HSR respective their at parking structured of shareCalifornia cost Southern construction the in in cities that Assuming uses. overall economic vitality of the station areas by increasing the mix and density of the enhances simultaneously uses revenue-generating of addition incremental The itself. structure physical the into flexibility programmatic builds and uses intermodal network, because it takes into for account the inevitable evolution prototype of land design interesting an communities served by HSR stations, especially those without is a strong existing Riverside in project Street Sixth The through spacemanagement. realized be can that efficiencies the reduces inevitably which parking, transit public the from separated physically be to needs also project rights air the for of the TOD project, the higher the carrying cost for the extra spaces. The parking development the and spaces the of construction initial the between interval the longer the development; future the by added footage square the for spaces are challenges. One of the primary issues operational is and the design presentneed also to projects overbuild rights air the for parking suitable so decks there with structuresparking potential, placemaking urban and economic their with Along 13

15 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA V: ZONING/LAND USE POLICIES ihdniy eieta ue ta wud e tews icnitn wt the with inconsistent predominantly suburbancharacter ofitssingle-family neighborhoods. otherwise be would that uses residential for appropriate high-density areas station HSR find may housing affordable for their allocation fulfill to yet have that Irvine as such Cities projects. future housing of affordable location the for choice logical a TOD makes which needs, their mobility for transit on dependent most those often are households Low-income or low-, very-low, for units of moderate-income households). percent 49 containing as (defined housing affordable projects of approval condition or deny to ability its on limitations face or designation, allocation the of years three within (RHNA) Assessment Needs Housing Regional the in allocation housing the with consistent sites of housing needs for all income levels. Local governments must complete rezoning regional consider to governments local requirementson new imposes 375 SB iii. capital investment. FIGURE

8. POTENTIAL Affordable Housing

TIME

VALUE

OF

STREAMLINED

CEQA

REVIEW UNDERSB375 costs. construction/land higher and location prime their to due developments, TOD generally projects these that command price premiums of 10-15% or more per sq. ft. over comparable non- suggests California Southern in projects TOD recent of survey a Furthermore, cost-prohibitive. projects mixed-use or TOD in units income low-to-moderate of inclusion the make time same the at may areas in conjunction with the introduction of HSR service in Southern California station around occur to expected prices estate real in increase speculative The to meettherequirements of theRHNA. sufficient production housing affordableof volume a encourage to essential be bonuses, reduced parking requirements, or “fast track” entitlement, will therefore to incentives additional private-sector developers providing beyond those provided under in SB 375, such as density governments local of cooperation The forthisincentive. to qualify fulfillment of other project requirements (enumerated in Figure 4 above) needed the with associated costs development the plus costs, land increasedenough offset to be not may this however, project, “transit-priority” a For 8]. [Figure review project conventional vs. streamlined a of savings time potential the in developer.the greatestfor arguablyThe ft. value lies sq. per $20-30 of savings upfront an average on represents exemption CEQA 375 SB the project, the of scale the on Depending less. or under units 20 of small project review a mixed-use or even residential for CEQA $500,000 to up cost experts, can process development normal land-use the and entitlement California-based Southern to According constraints. financial the of some ease to intended is 375 SB under projects “transit-priority” to given relief regulatory of value The households withchildren. larger and groups low-income both for residential the high-density limit of desirability factors market these cases, many In seniors/retirees. and couples, childless professionals, single young to appeal demographic their reflecting 14 Their unit mixes also tend to skew toward studios and one-bedrooms, and studios toward skew to tend also mixes unit Their 16 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA V I VI: AN EFFECTIVE INTERMODAL STRATEGY FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL A single transportation center would better facilitate passenger transfers, while transfers, passenger facilitate better would center transportation single A facilities. two the linking for provision a without afield, further station HSR the locate would second the while proximity, close in facility HSR-dedicated new a build or station, Metrolink existing the of use joint establish would first The connectivity.intermodal for differentimplications dramatically with alternatives Santa Fe Springs are, for example, currently recommending two station location and Norwalk of cities the for staffs Planning stations. HSR of location planned the over CHSRA the and governments local between discussions preliminary in display on already is impacts and benefits community balance to need The more be may projectsentrenched. infrastructure to land acquire resistance to expensive neighborhood-level more and be may it but higher, be will ridership and accessed easily more be can itself station the where activity, commercial and development of nodes existing within stations rail high-speed locate to desire the against instance, for down, costs keep to pressure the – priorities dueling proceeds through the project-level EIR/EIS phase, planners will have to balance CHSRA the As scrutiny. of level higher a with areplans Authority’s the alignment evaluating proposed the by affected California Southern in communities Propositionboth ReinvestmentAmerican the and 1A Recovery and (ARRA), Act Now that there is at least $4 billion in combined funding for the project through hub withincreased levelsofridershipandactivity. highways, and with the intent that each airports, station become a multi-modal transportation transit, regional and local with linkage potential their on part in based locations station HSR selected Authority Rail Speed High California The allocates $950milliontoimproving localtransitconnectionstoHSRstations. specifically system, rail high-speed a fund and support to 2008 November in approvedvoters PropositionCalifornia system, which CAHSR 1A, overall the of Recognizing the crucial role that intermodal transit hubs will play in the success FO AN R E

FFE H IGH-SPEED R CT I V E I N T E A R IL MOD A L S TRAT EGY station. The elaboration of a smart, thoughtful intermodal strategy can help to help can strategy intermodal thoughtful smart, a of elaboration The station. a of benefits economic the of any enjoying without HSR of impacts the negative all suffering as themselves see stop station a without cities the corridor, immediate station areas. Along the Vernon to Buena Park stretch of the beyond proposed extends impacts and benefits HSR’s over debate the say, to Needless and businesses. a separate location would minimize land-use impacts on surrounding buildings International Airport (LA International Airport LosAngeles between Freeway 105 the paralleling roughly Line, GreenMetro’s i. the area’s 25 millionannualvisitors. Convention Center and dramatically boost rail ridership in Orange County, given Resort/ Anaheim the and ARTIC between connection a establish would which Connection, Rapid Anaheim the (2) and link; plane-to-train seamless a create Line Extension both to LA Twoprojects Metroa (1) list”: “wish the of top the at ranked consistently Green such that likelihood the systems could as be feasibly built and in operation by 2020, well when CAHSR debuts. as ridership, HSR maximize to most the do OCTA, were asked to discuss the regional and local “feeder” systems that would Officials at Southern California transit agencies, including Metro, Metrolink, and A offer overbothairandautotravel. to intended is system CAHSR the that advantage pricing the negate essentially added These expenses end. make high-speed rail less competitive and and reduce overall ridership by origin trip both at parking, and/or automobile private car,rental taxi, a of expenses added the riders HSR save to potential the have If the connecting local systems are efficient, reliable, and easy to use, they also and mobilitybenefits. a broader user base in support of the project’s economic, health, environmental, integrate high-speed rail into the existing fabric of local communities, and create

.

Metro GreenLineExtension CONNE CT ING REGION X X ) and Norwalk, has long suffered from its reputation as Airport and Norwalk Metrolink/HSR facility that would A L T RA N S I T 17 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA VI: AN EFFECTIVE INTERMODAL STRATEGY FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL the City of Norwalk would most likely request that a portion of the corridor be corridor the of portion a that request likely most would Norwalk of City the impacts, community Tomitigate 2020. in system CAHSR statewide a of debut the to relevant immediately it make would that timeframe a within especially The challenges, both financial and political, to this second extension are complex, Line inNorwalkfrom theNorwalkMetrolink Station[Figure 9]. Green Metro the of terminus current the separates gap three-mile a Currently, train link a reality, a second extension plane-to- of the this Green make ToLine 2016-18. would also as be soon necessary. as completed be could and funded LA to passengers airport transport would that Boulevard Century at station a with LA link to is consideration under option The first extension would connect LA Business Plan,fortheyear2035). CHSRA (2009 passengers annual million 41.0 estimated CAHSR’s and (2009) LA of some for transfer intermodal reliable and inexpensive an providing link, plane-to-train a as importance regional its LA a “train to nowhere,” due to the missing rail link between the Aviation station and FIGURE X X terminals via a one-mile “people mover.”“people one-mile a via terminals ’s airport terminals. But with two key extensions, it could dramatically increase 9. PLANE - TO - TRAIN

LINK

VIA

GREEN

LINE X directly to Metro’s light rail network. One

E X X TENSION to Metro’s proposed Crenshaw Line, Crenshaw proposed Metro’s to X ’s 42.5 million annual passengers annual million 42.5 ’s 15 S The Crenshaw Line is partially partially is Line Crenshaw The TO LA X + NORWALK

HSR

STATION hs osals owtsadn, ay rni ofcas xrse a renewed a expressed officials transit many notwithstanding, obstacles These significantly reduced. be would link plane-to-train a on ridership versa, vice or station HSR Norwalk LA at origin trip the between involved are transfers two than more If extension. Line GreenMetro a with integration its of feasibility the alone let finalized, be to yet has Norwalk in station HSR planned the of location the Furthermore, costs. construction increase would which underground, built implementation. and engineering of phase next the to advanced be will preferredthat alternative locally a identify to alternatives project other and fixed-guideway a of benefits state and requirements.and impacts the detail environmentalin The evaluate will studies federal meet to (EIR/EIS) Report/Statement Impact Environmental and environmental studies, including an Alternatives Analysis Report and a joint engineering preliminary and studies environmental preparing be will Anaheim of City the years two next the over website, Anaheim’s of City the Accordingto and integrationwiththeCAHSRsystem. major with employment venues centers in Orange County, sporting with massive potential and for local ridership tourist entertainment, together link would it Center,Resort/Convention Anaheim Triangle,the Platinum and the Disneyland, to serve the future Anaheim Regional Transportation Intermodal Center (ARTIC), regionCalifornia Southern the serve expected alignment planned the With well. would that project “feeder” HSR another is (ARC) Connection Rapid Anaheim the named recently system guideway fixed east/west mile four Anaheim The ii. investmentinintermodalconnectivity.a smart fromLine currentits could be station Springs Fe Norwalk/Santa terminus tothe Green the of extension an funded, and (LRTP)Transportation Plan LongRange the into incorporated be could connection a such if and Norwalk, of City the of Southern satisfaction the to out in worked be could connection GreenLine of method the if rail high-speed for generate and Metrolinkstation, Norwalk the near or at built is station HSR a If California. would it that benefits ridership interest inbuildingaplane-to-trainlinkviatheGreenthe enormous Line,citing

Anaheim Rapid Connection Anaheim Rapid X and the trip end at the at end trip the and 18 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA VI: AN EFFECTIVE INTERMODAL STRATEGY FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL i. Alternative connectivityconceptscouldinclude: to encouragetransituseandreduce regional VMT/GHGemissions. HSR integrated with the road of network in new, inventive ways that simultaneously help majority the destinations, of passengers are likely to use a vehicle of for their some trip. portion HSR can varietybe greater a to travel intermodal initially,areleast systems connecting At until robustseamless allow to enough commuters. long-distance CAHSR’s for connections intermodal effective an be to coverage or flexibility route the provide necessarily cannot system guideway fixed a that large so be will - ridership its draw to project is system the which from radius geographic the – stations HSR for area catchment the addition, In convenient. be not may luggage with rail light and buses between transferring so Anaheim, and LosAngeles Francisco, San like places to trips interregional riders taking be will the of Most require. will they parking the and attract will they users of volume the of terms in “mini-airports” as characterized often are stations HSR California’s Southern and passenger HSR the dispersed developmentpatterns. of needs the to both suited better concepts connectivity lower-cost alternative, consider to wise be may it result, a As formulas. regionally-based pre-determined via rail intercity and commuter to allocated be will funds these part, most the regionalFor linkages. substantial build to inadequate is systems Propositionconnecting under for 1A available funds of pool limited sources,fromthe other funds matching Without B.

public transportation tobegintheirFlyAway trip. public transportation used Station Union from departing riders the of percent 69 Furthermore, 433,000. than more Angeles to rose Los count passenger to annual accordingthe Airports, World 2008, By service. of onset the at predicted LA Center. During its first year of operation, the FlyAway from Union Station to including LA Union Station, Van Nuys, to Westwood, and the service Irvine Transportation bus direct provide E xpress X AL transported 250,000 passengers, more than three times the number the times three than more passengers, 250,000 transported T E R F N lyaway buses lyaway AT I V E CONNE . With a capacity of 55 seats, Flyaway buses Flyaway seats, 55 of capacity a With . CT I V I T X Y CON ipr fo rgoa tast hubs, transit regional from airport C EP TS iii. ii. increase. ARTIC will accommodate these services as well as plans for future for plans as well as services these accommodate will ARTIC increase. of number the routes bus express and local as and Anaheim serving trains Amtrak years and Metrolink coming the in grow to continue will choices transit of network The converge. system transit rail backbone County’s Orange and routes bus arterials, major freeways, where landmark a region, the and County According to the official project website, “ARTIC will serve as a hub for Orange by the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) and the City of Anaheim. transportation gateway and mixed-use activity center on a 16-acre site co-owned a combine to proposes opportunity, joint-development a as to referredARTIC, c. develop amore robust network ofFlyawaybus/Supershuttletypeservices. and expand would providethat could businesses 1A incubator for funding seed Instead of being allocated to conventional commuter or intercity rail, Proposition iv.

NEVs could be part of the solution for the “last mile” between stations and with as such technologies emergingfuture, the streetsIn mph. 35 under limits speed local on use for 100 primarily to manufactured up charge, of per range miles driving a and mph 50 of speeds top with vehicles N not usuallyoperatedorefficiently. areascover to whereexpanded is be transit can that services door to door Van/JitneyConcepts Supershuttle Zipcar-like program forbusinesstravelers. CityShare/ a of convenience and attractiveness the increasegreatly could to be as high $32 at San Francisco’s Transbay Terminal, the parking benefit or free parking in downtown locations. With daily parking costs anticipated dedicated, offer could priority cities spaces at HSR stations and participating other transit hubs, as well as incentives, subsidized As destination. and origin trip the both at car a use to passengers HSR for possible be would it locations, station all at available and systemwide implemented were program the If trips. business-related short, for especially service, HSR the frequentof for users taxis to alternatives as well particularly work would and hour, the by services rental car offer and areas urban dense, CityShare/ places ofemployment. eighborhood New/Expanded MultimodalHubs Z pa programs ipcar E eti Vehicles lectric Tee rgas yial oeae in operate typically programs These . . These programs are shared ride, sharedareprograms These . NV) NV ae four-wheeled are NEVs (NEVs). 19 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA VII: HSR + THE DISCRETIONARY RIDER status asaregional employmenthub[Figure 10]. with Anaheim’s reinforce substantially along could station that space the retail and to office proximityadditional close in tower high-rise a for call plans conceptual Long-range operations. and maintenance station fund help could theory,revenuegroundIn lease OCTA. the with partnership in undertaken be to station and leave eight to ten acres of open space for future private development actual the of footprint the minimize ARTICto designing is Anaheim of City The slated tobeginin2011andthestationbeoperational2013. is construction Currently, Connection.” Rapid Anaheim and trains speed high FIGURE 10.ARTIC AT

FULL

BUILD - OUT ( CONCEPTUAL

RENDERING )

The overwhelming majority of riders are transit dependent, either because they because either dependent, aretransit riders of majority overwhelming The income of $31,800, compared to the Orange County median of $71,601 (2007). the OCTA pegs its share of discretionary riders at 27%, with an average household Currently, the MTA estimates that 26% of its riders are “discretionary,” Similarly, supplanting themuchslower Amtrakroutes. that will occur when the CAHSR system begins interregional operations in 2020, the result of a faster transit mode, similar to the transformation in intercity travel as demographics ridership in shift potential the of predictor best the perhaps on Highway 101 by a statistically significant margin. significant statistically a by 101 Highway on hour rush morning the of onset the delay to found also was San Valley, the Fernando in line BRT a Line, Orange The transit. public to driving from to switch induced but route, same the along buses (slower) local the from diverted up ridership study found that one-third of the increased ridership was not simply TransitRapid Bus follow-first a its 2000, in Wilshire(BRT)Corridor the on line road. Their efforts have been met with some success. When the MTA introduced the congestion given and air riders, pollution reductiondiscretionary benefits of that come sharefrom taking higher cars off a the attract to been has planners Historically, one of the overriding priorities of Southern California transportation that itprovides. savings time circumstances, some in and, cost the for primarily transit, public take to choose but transportation of means other to access have who those to referring riders, “discretionary” of share their but volumes ridership their only not boost regionalto and agencies cities transit for opportunity enormous an is This savings. time or convenience, cost, of reasons for either destination, their end to them take to systems connecting local use to induced be may travel and leisure the business of travelers using the new Some CAHSR system for both California. inter- and in intraregional rail high-speed of introduction the of resulta as change to likely is rider transit mass the profileof demographic The H SR A ND T HE D I SCR E T ION 16 This study represents study This AR Y RIDE R

20

V THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA II VII: HSR + THE DISCRETIONARY RIDER rni’ rlaiiy cneine ad au truh rdn ivsmns in investments prudent connecting localandregional systems. through value and convenience, reliability, transit’s mass of perception public’s the in gains recent these cement to opportunity and highway projects over the next 30 years. transit High-speed rail offers mass an important for billion $34-40 additional an raise will which of proceeds the on vote County Measure R in November Angeles 2008, which imposes an additional half-cent sales tax, Los the in garnered majority 67.2% overwhelming the by evidenced as place, taking already is transit mass toward Californians Southern of attitudes the in shift this quantify, to difficult While car. a without those for resort last of mode travel the as stigma enduring become but unjustified their systems shedding regionalpopulation, the of and cross-section broad a local by patronized increasingly as transit, mass of “mainstreaming” One of the beneficial impacts of high-speed rail in California will be the cultural and $18.33forleisure/personal travelers. travelers business/commuting for $57.72 at riders interregional for travelled) benefit-cost study values the hourly time savings (ie. reduction in vehicle hours be higher on average than existing mass transit users. Indeed, the 2007 CHSRA to discretionary,tend be will will incomes riders their CAHSR and new these of in California carries a negligible percentage of business-related trips, virtually all mix of interregional travel within the state. Since existing intercity passenger rail split is more weighted toward business and commuting than the overall 1/3-2/3 and commuting, and 55 percent for recreation and personal reasons. Overall, this business for be presumedto is travel interregionalpercentHSR of 45 purpose, in numerous ways. According to the CAHSR’s ridership forecast, in terms of trip Compared to the profile of the current mass transit user, CAHSR riders will differ associated its and car a afford cannot expenses. or drive, to old too or young too are work, play, anddobusiness. live, to destination attractive can an as - future the for California competitively itself position Southern so, doing In benefits. environmental and economic rail’s high-speed of advantage full take to - systems transportation regional in in this report - whether it be through land use policies or matching investments political recent the outlined steps to proactive taking by CAHSR around generated contribute being momentum further can communities local and Cities place atacriticaljuncture inourregion’s growth anddevelopment. of into Propositionfalling and - funding 1A ARRA including - puzzle financing the pieces many with brightening, fact in are mega-project the this planning, for prospects of years After financially. itself support to ridership necessary the attracting of incapable otherwise or difficult, too technically expensive, too is it because either materialize, to unlikely still abstraction an that as projectseen being a risks to vital particularly is approach “ground-up” of type This speed railcorridornotjustinSouthernCaliforniabutstatewide. can also be the most persuasive advocates for successful completion of a high- they benefits, localized system’s the about informed Properly operations. and presence its by affected directly most the be will stakeholders local other and users individual end, the in but mph, 220+ at landscape California the across bold pronouncements and futuristic images of aerodynamic trains swiftly gliding to itself lends naturally complexity and scale this of mega-project A economy. with particular attention to positive impacts on local communities and the regional The aim of this report has been to examine and some quantify of these benefits, package ofbenefitstoOrangeCountyandSouthernCalifornia. impressive an delivering of capable is rail development...high-speed oriented faster employment growth in communities, key “green” healthier sectors, urban air,revitalization and more cleaner transit- emissions, gas greenhouse Lower C ON C LU S ION 21 V THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA III APPENDIX A. A. APPENDIC Source: CHRSAPress Release Of WhichUnemployed Total Workers Average JobDuration(yrs) Total Full-Time One-Year Jobs Palmdale-LA) - Other Segments(LA-SanDiego, LA-Anaheim Palmdale-LA Total ConstructionCosts*(inmillions) LA-Anaheim ARTIC Total Unemployment RateinConstruction Regional Jobs (forunemployed) Equivalent NumberofFull-Time ** netpresent valuein2010 dollars,discountedat4% * includesplanning/design,excludes costsofright-of-way acquisition Sources: 2009 CHSRABusinessPlan,Table 3(CapitalCostsbySegment byItem),ARTIC pptpresentation (1.27.10),availableatwww.articinfo.com T O TA L I C ncome ON estimated E STR mployed E B S U enefit CT ION J OB 1,539 15,387 3.75 57,700 4,000 53,700 S + R 2010 $701** EGION A L IN 2011 $60 $60 11% $6.6 131 C OME BENEFI 2012 $134 $591 $60 $785 10% $78.5 1,569 T

ATTR 2013 $721 $803 $60 $1,524 9.0% $137.2 2,743 IBU TA BLE 2014 $1,377 $946 $2,323 8% $185.8 3,717 T O H SR 2015 $1,820 $1,008 $2,828 7.0% $198.0 3,959 IN S OU T 2016 $1,556 $706 $2,262 6% $135.7 2,714 HE R N CA 2017 $844 $300 $1,144 6% $68.6 1,373 LIFO R NI A 2018 $263 $118 $381 6% $22.9 457 2019 $26 $15 $41 6% $2.5 49 2020 $12 $8 $20 6% $1.2 24 22 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPENDIX CA B nextten.org) specializations (Next10Study, “ManyShadesofGreen” availableatwww. *sectors identifiedashavingahighconcentrationoffast-growing “green” job Bay AreatoCentralValley Program Source: CambridgeSystematics, % Green Sectors Total Green Sectors Government Services FIRE Retail Trade Wholesale TCU Manufacturing Construction Mining Farming Supersector PE . LIFO R R M NI A A NEN * , BY T

S E J CT OB 12,308,181 8,266,958 1,428,949 4,979,096 1,156,033 1,801,205 633,457 580,227 942,523 609,079 12,419 165,193 ( 2030 NO O S

R

H

Economic GrowthEffectsAnalysisforthe (2030) SR) ATTR IBU 12,435,534 8,365,138 1,433,993 5,049,808 1,164,246 1,816,609 641,556 591,215 946,929 612,940 12,528 165,710 ( 2030 TA H SR) BLE

T H O 109 517 D 77.1% 127,353 98,180 5,044 70,712 8,213 15,404 8,099 10,988 4,406 3,861 SR ifference IN S OU T HE R N S IN C. CO Anaheim Norwalk Total CO Palmdale Alighting Station Daily Passenger Boardings (2030) LA-Union St. Burbank Sylmar C E TRAR 2 O RV C SavedPer Passenger Trip (lbs) 2 saveddaily O I 2 C 2 savedbyCorridorSegment(lbs) EMI E PL Subtotals: annually EGION SS A N A N A N PMD L BU S L BU S PMD L BU S PMD A A A A YL YL YL N N N S S S ION N (2030) U U U F F F A A A R R R A L TR R 2,499 826 6,473 65.25 54.75 43.5 484,055,153 1,326,179 505,991 163,060 45,224 281,576 0 PMD Boarding Station 360 135 35.25 25.5 0 PMD 12,690 3,443 - PMD EDU IP 0.0004536 S 219,564 IN CT 23.1 ION S OU S 630 208 1,632 39.75 29.25 18 resident (2030) lbs reduction perSCAG metric tons conversion factor lbs 66,607 25,043 6,084 29,376 91 0 135 S 29.25 0 25.5 S 2,662 - 3,443 S T

YL YL YL ATTR HE R N IBU 651 215 1,686 30 19.5 8.25 52,984 19,530 4,193 13,910 0 91 360 BU 0 29.25 35.25 BU - 2,662 12,690 BU CA TA R R R LIFO BLE R 2,211 730 0 21.75 11.25 0 381,163 48,089 8,213 - 1,686 1,632 6,473 L 8.25 18 43.5 L 13,910 29,376 281,576 L A A A NI T U U U O H A , PH SR

AS 0 0 730 10.5 0 11.25 63,713 - - 8,213 215 208 826 N 19.5 29.25 54.75 N 4,193 6,084 45,224 N S S S F F F E I 0 0 2,211 0 10.5 21.75 255,722 - - 48,089 651 630 2,499 A 30 39.75 65.25 A 19,530 25,043 163,060 A N N N A A A 23 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPENDIX D. H Distances BetweenDestinations(mi) Anaheim Norwalk/Santa Fe LA-Union Station Burbank Sylmar Palmdale Bakersfield Fresno Merced Gilroy San Jose Redwood City Millbrae SF-Transbay Alighting Station Daily Passenger Boardings* (2030) *Source: CHSRALos Angeles-Anaheim Technical Memorandum, AppendixF,Table 8 SR C O

STAT 2 EMI ION SS ION S IN L BU S PMD BFD FNO M GLY SJC RWC S S A N L BU S PMD BFD FNO M GLY SJC RWC S S A N A A YL FO F YL FO F N S N S R C C S U U T T F A R R F A EDU D D OU T CT 432 422 411 379 S 11,643 1,836 2,256 614 2,586 3,421 465 445 S Boarding Station HE F F T T ION R N S CA

CR 418 408 397 365 S 467 74 91 25 104 137 451 431 S LIFO FO FO EDI R TA NI BLE A 413 403 392 360 RWC 1254 198 243 66 279 369 446 426 RWC , PH T O AS SCA E I 384 374 363 331 SJC 2702 426 523 142 600 794 417 397 SJC G S E R RV EGION UNDE EGION I C 366 356 345 313 GLY 2092 330 405 110 465 615 399 379 GLY E PL A N (2030) 307 297 286 254 M 1892 298 367 100 420 556 340 320 M R C C S D D B 375, B 375, 248 238 227 198 FNO 1242 196 241 65 276 365 284 261 FNO AS ED ON H ON ED 189 179 168 139 BFD 1750 276 339 92 389 514 225 202 BFD SR 139 198 254 313 331 360 365 379 PMD 514 365 556 615 794 369 137 3,421 PMD IN T E RR EGION 168 227 286 345 363 392 397 411 S 389 276 420 465 600 279 104 2,586 S YL YL A L 179 238 297 356 374 403 408 422 BU 92 65 100 110 142 66 25 614 BU TR R R IP S O R 189 248 307 366 384 413 418 432 L 339 241 367 405 523 243 91 2,256 L A A IGIN U U AT ING O ING 202 261 320 379 397 426 431 445 N 276 196 298 330 426 198 74 1,836 N S S F F R ENDING 225 284 340 399 417 446 451 465 A 1750 1242 1892 2092 2702 1254 467 11,643 A N N A A AT

24 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPENDIX D. H Total DailyPassenger From… Miles Diverted Conventional Rail Auto Air Daily Passenger MilesTraveled (mi) *Source: SR C O

STAT 2 EMI Daily Total Subtotals High-Speed Rail and Greenhouse GasEmissions intheU.S. High-Speed Rail ION SS ION S IN A N L BU S S PMD BFD FNO M GLY SJC RWC S A F YL FO N S R C S U T F A R D EDU OU 34,345,386 25,415,586 T CT 5,413,995 817,020 974,592 259,108 1,062,846 S 1,296,559 9,824,120 2,404,177 5,838,716 HE F T ION R N S CA

CR 210,617 31,894 38,038 10,200 41,288 7% 74% 17% 382,042 S 50,005 LIFO FO EDI R TA NI BLE A 559,284 84,348 100,359 26,598 109,368 RWC 132,840 1,012,797 , PH Total Creditable T O AS CO SCA 2 E I saveddaily 1,126,734 169,122 200,832 53,108 217,800 SJC 262,814 2,030,410 annually G S E R Daily lbsCO RV (January 2006),difference betweentravelmodes assumesadoption ofShinkansen N700trainsets forCAHSR system EGION UNDE EGION I C 834,708 125,070 148,230 39,160 160,425 GLY 192,495 1,500,088 E PL 3,009,972,657 2 savedbymode A 6,019,945,314 N (2030)- 12,638,032 16,493,001 3,428,816 1,365,301 R 643,280 95,360 112,669 29,700 120,120 M 141,224 1,142,353 .0004536 426,153 S C D 143.4 B 50% 375, B 375, continued 352,728 51,156 59,768 15,470 62,652 FNO 72,270 lbs reduction perSCAGresident (2030) metric tons conversion factor lbs CO creditable toSCAGregion (under SB375) lbs 614,044 AS CO 2 2 ED ON H ON ED lbs savings/diverted passengermi* lbssavings/diverted 393,750 55,752 64,071 16,468 65,352 BFD 71,446 666,839 SR 1,296,559 PMD 132,840 50,005 71,446 72,270 141,224 192,495 262,814 2,219,653 IN T E RR EGION S 1,062,846 65,352 62,652 120,120 160,425 217,800 109,368 41,288 1,839,851 YL 0.497 0.587 0.177 A L BU 1.6 passengers/vehicle 110 seats,70%capacity 16,468 15,470 29,700 39,160 53,108 26,598 10,200 259,108 304 seats,70%capacity 449,812 TR R IP S O L 64,071 59,768 112,669 148,230 200,832 100,359 38,038 974,592 1,698,559 R A U IGIN AT N 55,752 51,156 95,360 125,070 169,122 84,348 31,894 817,020 1,429,722 ING O ING S F R ENDING A 393,750 352,728 643,280 834,708 1,126,734 559,284 210,617 5,413,995 9,535,096 N A AT

25 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPENDIX E C *based on CHSRAestimates, 2009Business Plan(Table E,Initial PhaseRevenue &Ridersby Year) 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 CA . OMMU L C T UL up thru2035* Ridership Ramp- E RS AT ION IN 100% 99% 98% 98% 97% 96% 94% 93% 92% 90% 89% 88% 86% 68% 50% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

S O OU F C T HE OMMUNI R 11,475 11,076 10,668 10,296 9,916 9,570 9,178 8,801 8,456 8,107 7,787 7,463 7,167 5,812 4,560 3,404 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $65,218 (thousands) fares at50% P N hase CA LIFO I

T O Y nly,

R HE NI A 9,524 9,193 8,855 8,546 8,231 7,943 7,618 7,305 7,019 6,729 6,463 6,194 5,949 4,824 3,785 2,826 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $54,131 fares at77% P A L hase T H

I BENEFI

O nly, S ATTR TS 8,951 8,639 8,321 8,031 7,735 7,464 7,159 6,865 6,596 6,323 6,074 5,821 5,590 4,534 3,557 2,655 fares at83% P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $50,870 hase I

O nly, IBU TA 23,295 22,484 21,657 20,901 20,130 19,426 18,631 17,867 17,166 16,457 15,808 15,150 14,549 11,799 9,257 6,911 fares at50% +8% increase, F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $132,393 ull System, BLE T O

H R B SR, 19,737 19,050 18,350 17,709 17,056 16,460 15,786 15,138 14,545 13,944 13,394 12,837 12,327 9,997 7,843 5,856 fares at77% +8% increase, F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $112,175 ull System, Annual MedicalCostEscalator(Real Costs) AS D ON ED Average Yearly MedicalInflation IN NP CR V E AS 1.047 1.016 0.987 0.958 0.930 0.903 0.877 0.851 0.826 0.802 0.779 0.756 0.734 0.713 0.692 0.672 0.652 0.633 0.615 0.597 0.580 0.563 0.546 0.530 0.515 0.500 (thousands) (60+) health benefit NPV ED

PHY S I CA 0.523 0.508 0.493 0.479 0.465 0.452 0.438 0.426 0.413 0.401 0.389 0.378 0.367 0.356 0.346 0.336 0.326 0.317 0.307 0.299 0.290 0.281 0.273 0.265 0.258 0.250 (<60) health benefit 3% 7% 4% L ACT I V I T Y

BY R EGUL AR H SR 26 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPENDIX VS F Fullerton Norwalk Source: CAHSRProgram EIR/EIS,LAtoSanDiegoviaOrangeCounty, Table 4.3-4 Santa Ana Anaheim LA UnionStation STAT Irvine Total San Diego San JuanCapistrano University Town Center Solana Beach Oceanside . P . . EXI R ION O J ST E CT ING P ED NUMBE ED AR KING T R R O CA E OF P OF TA Q 14,117 UI P L 1,156 1,926 3,579 1,395 1,262 1,180 H AC 953 342 864 473 987

R P SR ED AR AR I T

KING Y FO KING AT R

ME S EXI P TR T 3,361 AC O 190 401 447 722 547 249 625 180 n.a. n.a. ST OLINK 0 TA E ING L S

R

E STAT Q % ( R UI E -100% O Q R 111% UNDE -84% -79% -53% -76% -37% -80% -47% -82% ION V UI ED FO ED E R R S ED R)/ R H SR

27 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ENDNOTES www.arb.ca.gov/cc/sb375/rtac/report/092909/finalreport.pdf Board, September29,2009,p.26,accessedonMarch 16,2010athttp:// (RTAC) Pursuant toSenateBill375,”AReport totheCaliforniaAirResources 6 mile, compared to3.27lbsforaBoeing-777airplane. 10 ries/2009/07/27/health/main5190909.shtml 2009, accessedonDecember 4,2009athttp://www.cbsnews.com/sto 9 nenberg.pdf December 4,2009athttp://www.cdc.gov/healthyplaces/articles/besser_dan Transit: StepstoHelp MeetPhysicalActivityRecommendations,” accessedon 8 html#Aerobic 7 consumption ofallsystems,withonly.327lbsCO 5 publications/green_jobs.html fornia’s Green Jobs.”December2009,p.4,http://www.nextten.org/next10/ 4 cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/images/chsr/20081020174618_HSR-OCReport.pdf Speed Trains ForOrangeCounty,” October2008,availableathttp://www. 3 images/chsr/20091001231546_CHSRAARRAFACTSHEETFINAL.pdf. ber 2009,accessedonMarch 8,2010athttp://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/ high-speed trainAmericanRecovery andReinvestment ActApplication,”Octo 2 ballot-warming6-2010feb06 February 26,2010athttp://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/06/local/la-me- warming law,” 1 ENDNO

LilahM.BesserandAndrew L.Dannenberg, “Walking to Public http://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/everyone/guidelines/adults. “Recommendations oftheRegional Targets AdvisoryCommittee The Trust forPublic Land, “How MuchValue DoestheCityofPhila CBSNews,“Obesity Takes 9%ofHealth Spending,”July27, TheJapaneseShinkansenN-700seriesboaststhelowestenergy Next10,“ManyShadesofGreen: DiversityandDistributionofCali Orange CountyBusinessCouncil,“TheEconomicImpactofHigh- CaliforniaHigh-SpeedRailAuthority, “FactSheetontheCalifornia Margot Roosevelt, underwaytosuspendCalifornia’sglobal- “Effort T E The Los AngelesTimes S , February6,2010,accessedon 2 emittedperpassenger - - - - - outpaced inflation. given thattheaverageannualescalationinmedicalcosts(7%)hashistorically justed forincreases inreal costslikelytohaveoccurred by2020andbeyond, 11 eReport.pdf (accessedMarch 16,2010) Alliance, June2008,http://www.tpl.org/content_documents/PhilaParkValu for Public Land’s CenterforCityPark ExcellenceforthePhiladelphiaParks delphia Receive from itsPark andRecreation System?”AReport byTheTrust latimes.com/2005/dec/30/local/me-orange30 Times 16 Alternatives.pdf. www.metro.net/projects_studies/harbor_subdivision/images/AA_study/03- –Final,November2009,Pageport 3-33,accessedJanuary13,2010athttp:// 15 January 19,2010). theconcordgroup.com/pdf/California_builder_TOD_Sept08.pdf (accessed the Suburbs.” 14 housing unitsstackedontop. dards, andwouldhaverequired retrofitting tomeetthenewstandards withthe deck wasengineered andbuiltbefore thechangeinCalifornia’sseismicstan not materialize,thoughduetotechnicalandmarketfactors.Namely, the 13 Sheet.pdf 12

, December30,2005,accessedonMarch 17,2010athttp://articles. Theestimatedreductions inannualmedicalspendinghavebeenad Caitlin Liu,“Orange LineEasesA.M.RushOn101,” Metro HarborSubdivisionTransit CorridorAlternativesAnalysisRe EmmaTyaransen, AdamSeidmanandChristian.“Tracking Ultimately, theresidential airrightsproject plannedforthesitedid http://www.anaheim.net/images/articles/1364/OCTAGoLocalFact California Builder/Developer, September2008,http://www. The Los Angeles - - - - - 28 THINKING AHEAD: HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA