RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2014 MOSCOW 2015 INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO RAN) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2014 Preface by Alexander Dynkin Editors Alexei Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev Editorial Assistant Tatiana Anichkina Moscow IMEMO RAN 2015 УДК 327 ББК 64.4(0) Rus95 Rus95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security. IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2014 / Ed. by Alexei Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev. – M., IMEMO RAN, 2015. – 219 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0441-6 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2014 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving the future of nuclear arms control, UN Security Council and regional arms control, OSCE and the Ukrainian crisis, Russia and NATO in the new geopolitical context, the Ukrainian factor in the US defence policy, the strategic relations between Russia and China. This year’s edition also highlights issues of resolving the crisis around Iran’s nuclear program, the dynamics of the Russian armed forces modernization, military political cooperation between Russia and the CIS states, India’s military technical cooperation with Russia and the US, Islamic State as a threat to regional and international security. To view IMEMO RAN publications, please visit our website at http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535-0441-6 ©ИМЭМО РАН, 2015 CONTENTS PREFACE ...........................................................................................7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ......................................................................................9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL: WAYS TO OVERCOME A COMPREHENSIVE CRISIS ........................................................15 Alexei ARBATOV Symptoms of the crisis ...................................................................15 Controversial world order ..............................................................17 Weapons and geostrategy...............................................................23 Proliferation strategies....................................................................26 2. THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL AND REGIONAL ARMS CONTROL............................................................................31 Alexander KALYADIN Powerful enforcement mandate......................................................31 The role of the UN Security Council in the elimination of Syrian chemical weapons ...............................................................34 The challenge to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program ..........................................................................................39 The UN Security Council against nuclear militarization of the Korean Peninsula......................................................................42 The prospects for improving the management of international security ...........................................................................................45 3. THE OSCE AND THE UKRAINE CRISIS .................................49 Andrei ZAGORSKI OSCE activities ..............................................................................51 Special Monitoring Mission ...........................................................55 OSCE observers at the Russian–Ukrainian border.........................59 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Trileteral Contact Group and the ‘Minsk process’.........................61 4. RUSSIA AND NATO IN THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT ........................................................................................65 Sergei OZNOBISHCHEV NATO transformation after the Cold War and challenges of Russia–NATO relations .................................................................65 NATO military-political decisions regarding events in Ukraine ...69 NATO policy of ‘restrained escalation’ .........................................75 5. THE UKRAINIAN FACTOR IN THE US DEFENCE POLICY.............................................................................................84 Natalia BUBNOVA US weapons programmes and the Ukrainian crisis........................85 Changes to the US and NATO strategies .......................................89 Military assistance to Kiev.............................................................92 The US dilemma over arms supplies to Ukraine............................94 6. STRATEGIC RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA: OPPORTUNITIES AND PROSPECTS...........................104 Vasily MIKHEEV, Sergey LUKONIN The new role of China’s foreign policy........................................104 The Ukrainian factor ....................................................................108 Beijing’s leadership ambitions .....................................................109 Russia and China: problems and shortcomings of cooperation ...111 Prospects for a ‘turn to China’ in the context of ‘Russia–West– China’ relations ............................................................................116 PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS 7. ISSUES OF RESOLVING THE CRISIS AROUND IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME (2013–2015) .......................123 Vladimir SAZHIN Stages of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear problem ................123 Iran’s nuclear infrastructure .........................................................128 CONTENTS 5 The results and implications of Geneva and Lausanne agreements....................................................................................132 8. THE DYNAMICS OF MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES................................................141 Lyudmila PANKOVA Results of GPV–2020...................................................................143 ‘External failure’ in the implementation of GPV.........................146 The role of R&D in the modernization process ...........................152 9. RUSSIA’S MILITARY-POLITICAL COOPERATION WITH THE CIS: THE ROLE OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS .....................157 Vadim VLADIMIROV The Western region ......................................................................157 The South Caucasus .....................................................................163 The Central Asia...........................................................................168 The CSTO and the events in Ukraine...........................................174 10. INDIA’S MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA AND THE US.......................................................178 Petr TOPYCHKANOV Do Russia and the US compete in India?.....................................178 Indian armed forces’ needs and defence industry ........................180 Indo–Russian military-technical cooperation...............................182 Indo–US military-technical cooperation ......................................189 11. ISLAMIC STATE AS A THREAT TO REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY....................................................194 Stanislav IVANOV Islamic State’s activity in Iraq, Syria, and other countries...........195 Future of the Islamic State: possible scenarios ............................197 Ways to counter Islamist terrorist organizations..........................200 Russia’s policy: key aspects.........................................................202 6 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PART III. DOCUMENTS AND REFERENCE MATERIALS 12. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENCE, AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY–DECEMBER 2014)...................................................207 Tamara FARNASOVA Legislative acts.............................................................................207 Normative acts..............................................................................209 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS...................................................217 PREFACE It is with great pleasure that I am introducing the Special Supplement – Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security for the Russian edition of 2014 SIPRI Yearbook. This Supplement contains analytical articles written by the leading scholars of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). The volume reflects the developments in arms control and security in the year 2014. Hence, it is logical that quite a number of inputs of the Russian experts are devoted to different aspect of the Ukrainian crisis which, as we predicted a year ago, appeared to be unmatched by its severity since the end of Cold War. After the beginning of the crisis Russia and the West started to move towards confrontation which is unpredictable in its consequences. Under these circumstances for the first time in the history of building the nuclear arms control and non-proliferation system the world appears to be facing a perspective of losing the legal control upon the most destructive military mean in the whole mankind history. The way out from this threatening situation, as it is emphasized in the Supplement, lies through political decisions – settlement of the Ukrainian crisis first of all. It is emphasized that a number of efforts in this direction have already been undertaken – the OSCE appeared to be the principle international institution introducing and implementing the applicable solutions. Another European institute – NATO, in its