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Announcements • Conference participants are requested to wear their conference passes throughout the conference. • Each moderator has 2 to 3 minutes to introduce the panel. Each presenter has 15 minutes for his/her presentation. Each discussant has 10 minutes for his/her presentation (regardless of the number of authors). Each Q&A will have three minutes. All presentations, comments, and questions will be timed. The moderators reserve the right to abbreviate or extend the standard time allocations. • English is the official language of the conference. • Please turn off your mobile phone during the conference sessions, so as not to disturb the proceedings. • Smoking is not permitted during conference proceedings but is permitted in designated smoking areas during the breaks. • In addition to the hard copies in your packets, electronic versions of the conference papers will be available on INPR’s website (www.inpr.org.tw). i ii Asia Pacific Security Forum Asian Elections 2007-2008: Regional Security Implications Institute for National Policy Research (Taiwan) Co-sponsors: The Pacific Forum CSIS (US) Institute for Strategic and Development Studies (Philippines) Asia Centre (France) August 10-12, 2008 Double Tree Alana Hotel Waikiki, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A iii iv Contents Agenda ............................................................................................................................................. vi James Kelly, Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs “Keynote Speech”.............................................................................................................................. 1 Heungkyu Kim, Professor, Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security “South Korea’s Elections and Security: Implications for Northeast Asia”........................................ 7 Yu-Shan Wu, Distinguished Research Fellow, Academia Sinica “Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy: How Significant is Russia’s Power Transfer?”................. 17 Wen-Cheng Lin, President, Taiwan Foundation for Democracy “Taiwan’s Elections and the Implications for Cross-Strait Relations” ............................................ 45 Denny Roy, Senior Fellow, East-West Center “Washington’s View of Taiwan’s 2008 Elections and Referendum”............................................... 63 Lowell Dittmer, Professor, University of California, Berkeley “China: Maturing Juggernaut”......................................................................................................... 79 Charles Salmon, Jr., Foreign Policy Advisor, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies “Elections in Thailand and Malaysia: Security Implication for Southeast Asia” ............................ 95 Brendan Taylor, Professor, Australian National University “Rudd’s Asia-Pacific Community: Dead in the Water?” ............................................................... 105 Carolina G. Hernandez, President, Institute for Strategic and Development Studies “The ASEAN Charter and the Building of an ASEAN Security Community” ..............................113 Brad Glosserman, Executive Director, Pacific Forum, CSIS “The U.S. Election and Implication for East Asia Security” ......................................................... 129 Cheng-Yi Lin, Research Fellow, Academia Sinica “The U.S. Elections and US-China Relations”.............................................................................. 137 François Godement, Professor and Director, Asia Centre “Viewing the New World’s response to the new New World: how Europeans view current U.S. debates and positions on Asia”....................................................................................................... 151 Participants’ Bios ......................................................................................................................... 163 v Agenda Sunday, August 10 18:30 Welcome Dinner at Hotel Pool Side Restaurant Day One Monday, August 11 08:30 Continental Breakfast (Room 303) 09:00 Welcome Remarks Hung-Mao Tien, Institute for National Policy Research Ralph Cossa, Pacific Forum, CSIS 09:10 Keynote Speech James Kelly, Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs 09:40 Panel One – Elections in South Korea, Japan, Russia: Security Implications for Northeast Asia Moderator: Wen-Cheng Lin, Taiwan Foundation for Democracy Presenters: Heungkyu Kim, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security “South Korea’s Elections and Security Implications for Northeast Asia” Yoshifumi Nakai, Gakushuin University “Japanese Politics and the Shaping of Its Security Policies” Yu-Shan Wu, Academia Sinica “Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy: How Significant is Russia’s Power Transfer?” Discussants: Chih-Cheng Lo, Soochow University Vincent K. Pollard, University of Hawaii Michael McDevitt, Center for Naval Analyses Corporation 11:10 Coffee Break 11:20 Open Forum 12:20 Luncheon at J-Bistro (lobby level) Speaker: Charles E. Morrison, President, East-West Center, U.S. vi 14:00 Panel Two – Taiwan’s Elections and the Implications for Cross-Strait Relations Moderator: Ralph Cossa, Pacific Forum, CSIS Presenters: Wen-Cheng Lin, Taiwan Foundation for Democracy “Taiwan’s Elections and the Implications for Cross-Strait Relations” Denny Roy, East-West Center “Washington’s View of Taiwan’s 2008 Elections and Referendum” Lowell Dittmer, University of California, Berkeley “China: Maturing Juggernaut” Discussants: Yu-Shan Wu, Academia Sinica Heungkyu Kim, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security Elizabeth Van Wie Davis, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies 15:30 Coffee Break 15:40-16:40 Open Forum 18:00 Transportation to the Residence of Representative Wang 18:30 Dinner Hosted by Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, Honolulu Day Two Tuesday, August 12 08:30 Continental Breakfast (Room 303) 09:00 Panel Three – Elections in Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia: Security Implications for Southeast Asia and South Pacific Moderator: François Godement, Asia Centre Presenters: Charles Salmon, Jr., Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies “Elections in Thailand and Malaysia and Security Implications for Southeast Asia” Brendan Taylor, Australian National University “Rudd’s Asia-Pacific Community: Dead in the Water?” Carolina G. Hernandez, Institute for Strategic and Developmental Studies “ASEAN Charter and the Building of a Security Community” vii Discussants: Richard Baker, East-West Center Chih-Cheng Lo, Soochow University John Brandon, Asia Foundation 10:30 Coffee Break 10:45 Open Forum 12:00 Luncheon at J-Bistro (lobby level) 13:30 Panel Four – Security Implications of the 2008 U.S. Elections Moderator: Carolina G. Hernandez, Institute for Strategic and Developmental Studies Presenters: Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum, CSIS “The U.S. Elections and Implication for East Asia Security” Cheng-Yi Lin, Academia Sinica “The U.S. Elections and U.S.-China Relations” François Godement, Asia Centre “Viewing the New World’s response to the new New World: how Europeans view current U.S. debates and positions on Asia” Discussants: Lowell Dittmer, University of California, Berkeley Yoshifumi Nakai, Gakushuin University Fu-Kuo Liu, National Chengchi University 15:00 Coffee Break 15:10 Open Forum 16:10 Concluding Panel Moderator: Hung-Mao Tien, Institute for National Policy Research Panelists: Ralph Cossa, Pacific Forum, CSIS Carolina G. Hernandez, Institute for Strategic and Developmental Studies François Godement, Asia Centre 16:40 Adjournment viii Keynote Speech James Kelly Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Asia-Pacific Security Forum 2008 Keynote Speech James A. Kelly Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs With thanks to the sponsors, I am both delighted and humbled to be speaking to this conference as it begins. I am delighted because the topic – in both real and theoretical terms – is so interesting and important. I am humbled, because as a practitioner by long experience, I am venturing into areas of academic reflection that go back far, and in which I have little background and knowledge. DNA science now verifies just how similar we humans really are. Differences in culture, development, and history can no longer be blamed on inherent distinctions among humans. Now, technology enables broader knowledge of others’ practices. Improvements in quality of life give the wherewithal that enable many more people to demand participation in their various political economies. So I would point to a convergence of governmental problems that may not be ‘the end of history,” but pose what is, in truth, a related set of problems or dilemmas across many nations and cultures. The problems differ in detail but converge in common. Included are those of prosperity and its imbalances, of protecting independence, avoiding unfair exploitation of people or natural resources or misuse of power by insiders or powerful foreigners, and of protecting the air and water that all need. Peoples are interested in reality not in models. There is a strong tendency of late to view democracy as an end in itself, but, in the worlds where most live, democracy has been chosen not primarily for its essential justice, but as the best way to achieve and assure desirable performance by government such as stable successions of leaders, responsive services, and responsible use of public money. The common contemporary problems are more obvious among democracies, though by no means limited to such. Yet the persistence
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