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Demographic Transition Thematic Resources (Population/Demography) Page 1 of 8 Demographic transition ASHISH BOSE THE 21st century will witness a gradual transition to an ageing society the world over. The process which first started in low fertility western societies and in Japan is now spreading to the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Countries like China and India will not only be at the forefront in terms of absolute number of total population, but also in terms of absolute number of the elderly (60+) population. In brief, the long term impact of decline in fertility and reduction in the size of family will lead to a decrease in the population of children (0-14 years), which in turn will push up the population in the working age group. Depending on the decline in fertility and mortality rates and the increase in the expectation of life, this will lead to an increasing proportion of the elderly after a time lag. A greying of the population is inevitable and one must understand its implications. Paul Wallace1, a popular writer, dramatically describes this phenomenon as ‘agequake’. If we understand the implications of ageing, agequake will not descend on us unexpectedly like an earthquake with death and destruction all around. Instead, we will be prepared to face a world converging on the elderly. In his recent book, Understanding Greying People of India, Arun P. Bali2 has put together a set of papers commissioned by the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR). He rightly points out that the elderly are more vulnerable than younger persons to social and economic hardships because, ‘in the process of development, poor sections lose ground in relative and perhaps also in absolute terms.’ This may mean that apart from an increase in the elderly population, the population of the elderly poor will increase. A comparative account of the elderly in India is presented by S. Irudaya Rajan and his colleagues3 in another recent publication, India’s Elderly: Burden or Challenge? They point out that while the increasing numbers of the elderly is attributed to demographic transition, ‘their deteriorating condition is considered as the end result of the fast eroding traditional family system in the wake of rapid modernisation and urbanisation.’ Thematic Resources (Population/Demography) Page 2 of 8 Given the size and striking diversity of India, it will be hazardous to generalise on the impact of urbanisation and ‘modernisation’ on the elderly. In a recent survey of the elderly in a middle class locality of New Delhi (1997), we found that rapid urbanisation and the consequent increase in housing shortage tends to perpetuate the joint family system. This is because most young married sons do not have the capacity to move out and pay exorbitant house rents. The result is a perpetuation of two and three-generation families staying together, creating perpetual tension between the generations, often leading to serious mother-in-law and daughter-in-law conflicts. In order to understand the social, psychological, economic and other implications of an ageing population, one cannot rely only on Census data or for that matter, only on the demographic perspective. Specialised studies and in-depth interviews of the elderly would provide better insights than a statistical approach. Nevertheless, one does need a statistical account of the elderly for policy making, planning and specific programmes to help the elderly through governmental as well as non governmental efforts. The object of this paper is to give some highlights of the emerging demographic scenarios based on the latest data generated by the Census of India, NSSO and relevant United Nations publications.4 In 1991, when the last decennial Census was undertaken, the population of the elderly (60+) in India (excluding Jammu and Kashmir where no Census could be undertaken because of disturbed conditions) was 57 million compared to 20 million in 1951 (when the first Census after Independence was conducted). * According to the official projections of the Registrar General, India, in 2001 the elderly population is estimated at 71 million, and 114 million by the year 2016 (the year for which the ultimate projections were made). * The United Nations projections (medium variant) put the estimated number of elderly in India in 2000 at 77 million. The projection for the year 2025 is 168 million and for 2050 it is 326 million. These are frightening numbers: an elderly population of 20 million in 1951 increasing to 326 million in 2050. * If we look at the proportion of the elderly to the total population from absolute numbers, we find that in 1951 it was 5.4% of the total population while in 1991 it was 6.7%. According to the Registrar General’s projections, the figure will be 8.9% in 2016. * According to the United Nations projections, in 2000, the elderly will account for 7.6% of India’s population. By 2025 the comparable figure will be 12.7% and by 2050 it will be 21.3%. Thematic Resources (Population/Demography) Page 3 of 8 * It should be noted that the proportion of 60+ female population is invariably higher than that of the male population. According to the UN projections, in the year 2000 the 60+ male population will constitute 7.1% of the total male population, while the comparable figure for 60+ females is 8.2%. By the year 2025, the male and female proportions will be 11.9% and 13.4% respectively, and by the year 2050, the comparable figures will be 20.2% for males and 22.4% for females. This is because of the higher life expectancy of females compared to that of males. * According to UN estimates, during the period 1995-2000 in India, the life expectancy of males stood at 62.3 years while that of females was 62.9 years. For the period 2020-25, the figures are 68.8 years for males and 72.1 years for females. For the period 2045-50 the estimates are 73 years for males and 76.9 years for females. It may also be noted that over the decades, the gap between male and female life expectancy is estimated to increase. In this situation at least, the gender gap affects the males adversely. * The ageing of population consequent on the change in the age structure will be evident from the fact that all through the last four decades, the growth rate of the 60+ population has been consistently higher than that of the total population. During 1951-61, the decadal growth rate of the 60+ population in India was 26% compared to the growth rate of 21.6% for the total population. During the decade 1981-91, the comparable figures were 31.3% and 23.9%. The same story is repeated when we consider the male and female population separately. Looking at regional variations we find that in 1991, three states in India, namely Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar had more than 5 million persons in the 60+ category. It may be noted that in most of the states the population of 60+ males exceeded that of 60+ females, notably in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. But in Kerala, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat, the 60+ female population exceeded the 60+ male population. Kerala had the highest proportion (8.8%) of 60+ population in 1991, followed by Himachal Pradesh (8.1%), Punjab (7.8%), Haryana (7.7%) and Tamil Nadu (7.5%). Among major states, the lowest proportion was in Assam (5.3%) followed by West Bengal (6.1%), Bihar (6.3%), Rajasthan (6.3%), Gujarat (6.4%). Madhya Pradesh (6.6%), Andhra Pradesh (6.8%) and Uttar Pradesh (6.9%). According to the 1991 Census, there were 22.2 million elderly (60+) workers in India: 17.8 million males and 4.4 million females. This implies that 39.1% of the total 60+ population were workers. The male workforce participation rate was 60.5% while it was 16.1% for females. Thematic Resources (Population/Demography) Page 4 of 8 There were more than a million elderly workers in each of the following states: U.P. (4.3 million), Bihar (2.3) , Maharashtra (2.2), M.P. (2.0), Andhra Pradesh (1.9), Tamil Nadu (1.7), West Bengal (1.3), Karnataka (1.2) and Rajasthan (1.0). The elderly workforce participation rates for these nine states are as follows: U.P. (45%), Bihar (42.4), Maharashtra (39), M.P. (46.1), Andhra Pradesh (43.4), Tamil Nadu (39.9), West Bengal (30.8), Karnataka (37.3) and Rajasthan (36.4). Andhra Pradesh has the highest female workforce participation rate (24.2%) among the elderly and West Bengal, the lowest (6.5%). The distribution of the elderly workforce in nine industrial categories adopted by the Census is as follows: (i) Cultivators 55.9%, (ii) agricultural labourers 22.4, (iii) livestock, forestry etc. 1.6, (iv) mining and quarrying 0.2, (va) manufacturing etc. in household industry 2.4, (vb) manufacturing etc. in other than household industry 3.9, (vi) construction 1.0, (vii) trade and commerce 6.6, (viii) transport etc. 0.9, (ix) other services 5. It will be seen that over 78% of the elderly work force is engaged in agricultural activities. In the case of female workers, the figure is over 84%. In the absence of any social security in the agricultural sector, the elderly fare badly and this is more true of the female workers. Even in the non-agricultural sectors, there is some social security only in the small organised sector. The problem is most acute in the informal or unorganised sector.
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