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Vol. 9 Motive 2 / 2018 Auto Vol. 9 motive p. 6 Action plan for long-term China: New rules success in China’s auto market p. 4 p. 14 p. 18 Dr. Christian Malorny, No distractions, please! Noblesse oblige Head Global Automotive, A.T. Kearney Smart cars can be overwhelming Goodwood—where petticoats “New is always exciting” and historic race cars mix Imprint PUBLISHED BY PHOTOGRAPHY, PICTURE CREDITS A.T. Kearney, Inc. Audio Mobil Elektronik (p. 17) 227 West Monroe Street Borgward (p. 22) Chicago, Illinois 60606 Byton (p. 22) United States Dr. Arno Lamminger (p. 17) Gudrun Muschalla (p. 2, 18, 19) Nio (p. 2 – 3, 21) CONTACT A.T. Kearney GmbH plainpicture / Arne Landwehr (p. 2, 9) Sendlinger Straße 8 Shutterstock (p. 6 – 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, 20, 21, 23) 80331 Munich, Germany Toyota (p. 24) phone: + 49 (0) 89 51 56 80 00 Volkswagen (p. 8) fax: + 49 (0) 89 51 56 89 99 [email protected] PRINTED BY www.atkearney.com Himmer GmbH Druckerei & Verlag, Augsburg, Germany CONCEPT AND TEXT Redaktionsbüro Automotive Press This magazine, including all articles and Tina Rumpelt, Germering, Germany illustrations, is protected by copyright. Any utilization is subject to approval by DESIGN CONCEPT, A.T. Kearney, Inc. LAYOUT, AND REALIZATION Stilmanöver Designprojekte, Mainz, Germany © 2018, A.T. Kearney, Inc. www.stilmanoever.de All rights reserved. Automotive Vol. 9 A.T. Kearney A. T. Kearney’s Global Partner Team Automotive Eugenio Prieto Stephan Krubasik EMEA EMEA Nils Kuhlwein Dr. Christian Malorny von Rathenow Global Ole Kahrs EMEA EMEA Manish Mathur Doug Mehl Asia Americas Marcus Weber EMEA » The true strength of this firm, Frederic Ramioulle Americas as in any organization, lies in the Rick Kozole fact that we are all different. « Americas Violetka Dirlea Andrew Thomas Kearney (1892 – 1962) Americas Dr. Wulf Stolle EMEA Masahiro Kishida Asia Jian Xu Asia Vinod Kumar Asia Michael Römer Ram Kidambi EMEA Asia Thomas Luk Mark Essle EMEA / China Americas … and more to come Andreas Form EMEA 1 A. T. Kearney’s Global Partner Team Automotive A.T. Kearney Automotive Vol. 9 18 Noblesse oblige Goodwood—where petticoats and historic race cars mix 2 Content Automotive Vol. 9 A.T. Kearney Content New kids on the block 20 China’s e-car start-ups hit the gas TALKING WITH … 4 “New is always exciting” Dr. Christian Malorny, Head Global Automotive, A.T. Kearney COVER STORY 6 China: New rules Action plan for long-term success in China’s auto market FACTS & OPINION 12 A.T. Kearney global STRATEGY 14 No distractions, please! Smart cars can be overwhelming SIDE MIRROR 18 Noblesse oblige Goodwood—where petticoats and historic race cars mix MARKET 20 New kids on the block China’s e-car start-ups hit the gas FINAL POINT 24 Running on water Around the world—on water and wind 6 China: New rules Action plan for long-term success in China’s auto market 3 Content A.T. Kearney Automotive Vol. 9 TALKING WITH … “New is always exciting” Ever since his schooldays, Christian Malorny has had a fascination for sports and baby cars from the Fifties and Sixties, which he collects and lovingly maintains. For fun, he drives an XL1—the one-liter model built by VW from 2014 to 2016. His love of cars shines through whenever he talks about the big picture for the global automotive industry, because “a fascination for the product is everything.” Malorny took over A.T. Kearney’s global automotive business on April 1 this year. He sees turmoil as an opportunity for change, upheaval as a new beginning, and “new is always exciting.” What makes the automotive industry so exciting for you? I like that the industry encompasses countless different disciplines with a high level of innovation. And that it involves people from very different backgrounds: mechanics, engineers, managers, scientists—everyone working together on the same product. Being German, it is exciting for me to see how our car industry has maintained its outstanding reputation worldwide. This is an industry that can genuinely lead the world. Everyone looks to us when it comes to cars. A number of big automotive companies are doing very nicely from their premium positioning, and they are happy to charge us dearly for it. Is premium likely to remain a safe bank in the future? A third of the added value in the German automotive industry—around $150 bil- lion in 2017—comes from the premium segment. Our analyses show that the premium share of the market could more than triple by 2035, primarily driven by digital services. When it comes to digital offerings—many of which extend throughout a vehicle’s lifetime—we expect to see strong customer demand, with margins of up to 30 percent. What will premium mean in the future? Today, premium is defined as 30 percent brand and design, 25 percent driving dynamics such as acceleration and handling, and 15 percent perceived quality. The dynamics aspect will go down, and range and charging time will define pre- mium in the future. Some people say that OEMs who fail at “new premium” will end up hiring themselves out as contract manufacturers. Isn’t that overly pessimistic? To deal with the challenges ahead, companies will need clever partnering, where they can ally themselves with other strong brands without losing their own brand identity or watering down their brand values. OEMs that are unable to do so are in danger of their brand losing ground and their products becoming less attractive. 4 “New is always exciting” Automotive Vol. 9 A.T. Kearney Dr. Christian Malorny, head of Global Automotive at A.T. Kearney: “The auto industry will have to learn to live in ecosystems and accept changing leadership roles.” Is external production a business mode traditional automakers need to keep an eye on? We expect to see a shift away from the B2C business we still see widely today to more and more B2B activities. For example, new mobility providers will want to stock their fleets with cars they have developed and designed themselves, with- out actually producing the cars. Why not consider that as a lucrative new business model? How successful have carmakers been so far in partnering with the tech industry? The automotive industry and the tech world are still getting to know each other. They are figuring out how they can combine capabilities in their first joint projects. Different forms of partnership will emerge, depending on the brand, the product, and the digital services involved. Lead times will vary just as much as the content. The auto industry will have to learn to live in ecosystems like this and accept changing leadership roles. For the tech industry, that is not a problem: ecosys- tems are their bread and butter. What are the potential hurdles for partnerships like this? When one of the partners realizes that the other has better access to the end customer and is therefore able to generate bigger profits. The tricky part is then: who earns what from the retail business? OEMs will have to work out how to price access to digital services to drivers. Just like Apple does with apps: a share of the profit always goes to Apple, regardless of who offers the app or digital service. What can the auto industry learn from the tech world? How to handle technology platforms, algorithms, and big data; how to obtain information from data and turn that information into knowledge they can use to create digital experiences. They can also learn from the tremendous agility of these organizations and their processes. By comparison, automotive OEMs are monoliths that will not be able to survive if they hold on to their conventional structures. Where do you see the strengths of the traditional auto industry in this scenario? The strength of the traditional automobile industry lies in the outstanding product quality it provides and its products’ high dependability over a very long lifecycle. Translating this reliability to new digital areas is a huge and crucially important task. Also, by continuing to innovate, the automotive industry has managed to keep cars desirable for more than 100 years. People still want to buy and drive cars—that is an immense asset anywhere in the world. Interview: Tina Rumpelt 5 “New is always exciting” A.T. Kearney Automotive Vol. 9 COVER STORY Ch na: New rules 6 China: New rules Automotive Vol. 9 A.T. Kearney It is widely known that the rules that apply to China are different than Europe and the US. But many of those rules no longer serve any useful purpose; some never did. As new challenges and risks threaten not only success in the marketplace but possibly even the companies themselves, car- makers need to understand the changing environment and to act fast. It’s time to throw out the old rule book and to reposition Ch na:for long-term success. he CEOs of the world’s biggest automotive companies are proud of their successes in China so far. This vast T market, with just 79 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants » By 2035, (2017), has filled carmakers’ coffers for years, consistently delivering increased sales and revenue. The prospects for continued growth are excellent. the Chinese Thanks to China, global demand for new passenger vehicles climbed from 50 million cars in 2000 to 85 million in 2017. Last year, every third passenger car, SUV, minivan, and MPV was sold in China—a total of 24.8 million vehicles. In their standard for best-case scenario, A.T. Kearney experts believe car sales could increase by 7.7 percent annually to around 35 million by 2022.
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