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Advanced Technology and the Future of U.S. Manufacturing Advanced Technology and the Future of U.S. Manufacturing Proceedings of a Georgia Tech research and policy workshop Edited by Philip Shapira, Jan Youtie, and Aselia Urmanbetova Georgia Tech Policy Project on Industrial Modernization School of Public Policy and the Georgia Tech Economic Development Institute Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30332-0345, USA SRI International, Prime Contractor Center for Science Technology and Economic Development Arlington, VA 22209-3915, USA April 2004 Table of Contents Preface.............................................................................................................................................. i Summary........................................................................................................................................ iv Participants in the Workshop on Advanced Technology and the Future of US Manufacturing .... x 1. A Brief History of the Future of Manufacturing: U.S. Manufacturing Technology Forecasts in Retrospective, 1950-present........................................................................................................ 1 2. Technological Opportunities to Develop New Capabilities: Manufacturing, Strategic Engineering, Adaptive Technologies, and Controls ................................................................. 29 2.1. Manufacturing Directions from Manufacturing Research Center (MARC) Perspective .. 29 2.2. Strategic Engineering on the Integrated Design of Products and Processes...................... 32 2.3. Additive Manufacturing Technologies: Opportunities for Customization, Flexibility, Complexity, and Simplicity ................................................................................................ 35 2.4. Future Trends in Machine Tools and Controls and their Potential Impacts on U.S. Manufacturing..................................................................................................................... 45 2.5. Discussion of Panel Presentations. Technological Opportunities to Develop New Capabilities: Manufacturing, Strategic Engineering, Adaptive Technologies, and Controls ............................................................................................................................................. 50 3. Panel on Technological Opportunities to Develop New Capabilities: Microelectronics, Nanotechnology, Medical Devices ........................................................................................... 53 3.1. Technological Prospects for Microelectronics................................................................... 53 3.2. What is Nanotechnology? And How Will This Small Wonder Make a Big Change in Manufacturing?................................................................................................................... 56 3.3. Advances in Materials and Self-assembly......................................................................... 66 3.4. Medical Devices and Global Manufacturing ..................................................................... 70 3.5. Discussion of Panel Presentations. Technological Opportunities to Develop New Capabilities: Microelectronics, Nanotechnology, Medical Devices................................... 73 4. Organizing Manufacturing to Compete at Global Scales ......................................................... 75 4.1. New Opportunities in Logistics: Technology and Trucking.............................................. 75 4.2. Futures for Traditional Industries: Strategic Issues in the Pulp and Paper Industry in Georgia................................................................................................................................ 85 4.3. Human Side of Manufacturing Technology: Demographic Changes, Training Needs and Skill Gaps.......................................................................................................................... 100 4.4. Discussion of Panel Presentations. Organizing Manufacturing to Compete at Global Scales ................................................................................................................................ 110 5. Concluding Comments............................................................................................................ 112 5.1. Reflections on the History of the Future of Manufacturing Technology......................... 112 5.2. Discussion........................................................................................................................ 113 5.3. Closing Remarks.............................................................................................................. 115 Preface Philip Shapira, Jan Youtie, and Aselia Urmanbetova Attention to the technological capabilities of U.S. manufacturing is enduring theme for business and policy. Since early industrialization, U.S. manufacturing competitiveness has been founded on the development and adoption of advanced technologies, innovative processes, and novel management practices. In recent decades, concerns about global competition, the pace of innovation and discovery, and the prospects for industrial jobs and skills have stimulated further efforts to look to technology as a remedy to sustaining the position of the U.S. as a competitive base for manufacturing. Traditionally, policy-makers view manufacturing from the view of jobs, production, and trade balances. From this perspective, the current state of American manufacturing raises concerns. In particular, U.S. manufacturing lost 2.8 million jobs in the period 2001-2003, while its manufacturing trade deficit with the rest of the world has continued to grow. These developments reflect a mixture of cyclical and structural trends. For example, we know that manufacturing employment tends to increase during economic expansions and decrease during downtowns. Indeed, during the 1990s economic upturn, U.S. manufacturing employment grew from 16.8 million jobs in 1992 to 17.3 million jobs in 2000, but then fell to 14.5 million jobs in 2003. We also know that the modern peak of manufacturing employment was 19.4 million jobs – achieved almost a quarter of a century ago in 1979. Yet, while these headline job numbers indicate that U.S. manufacturing sector employment has significantly declined since the beginning of the 1980s, the underlying story is more complex. Over the long run, U.S. manufacturing output and productivity have both increased tremendously – primarily because of enhancements in technological capabilities. Real output per hour per worker in American manufacturing was more than four times greater in 2000 than fifty years earlier. However, manufacturing’s share of total U.S. economic output (measured as a proportion of gross domestic product) has consistently declined, from about 30 percent in 1950 to 15 percent in 2000, due to the great expansion of service sectors. At the same time, it is also clear that in the 21 st century, these statistical categories are less coherent now than they were in the middle of the last century. Manufacturing today involves significant contributions from activities counted in the services sector, including research, development, engineering, finance, advertising, maintenance, logistics, and other business-oriented functions. It is also worth noting that long-run employment losses in manufacturing coupled with increased productivity have been experienced not only in the U.S. but in most other industrial countries, as well as in developing countries (including, surprisingly, China). Moreover, we are now increasingly appreciative that service jobs, like their manufacturing predecessors, can be outsourced too. As we reflect on such current trends and seek to think forward, it seems that the future of manufacturing in the United States will hinge increasingly on capabilities to develop, deploy, and commercialize new products, processes, organizational structures, human skills, and management practices. And all this is in the context of increasingly capable international competition and globalization of trade and technology. To be sure, the innovative American “factory” of the future will surely not look like the large American factory of the 1950s, with its assembly-line processes and cadres of routine shop-floor and administrative workers. But what i will the American factory of the future look like? What will be its innovative edge, and what systems of research, production, supply, and distribution will it use? And, who will work in it? To try to answer these kinds of questions, we assembled an interdisciplinary group of leading researchers at Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) in January 2004. Coming from fields which included science and engineering, management, economic development, and public policy, we asked the group to stretch beyond the short-term business cycle and the immediate economic issues – to discuss and debate longer-run opportunities for manufacturing in the United States and to consider the role that advanced technology and innovation might play in creating this future. We challenged workshop participants with this set of specific questions and issues: • What are the next generation manufacturing technologies? How have technologies evolved to date, how might they emerge in the future? Who are among the leaders in the research, development, and application of these technologies? • What are the potential impacts of next generation technology on future U.S. manufacturing capability? How can these technologies be used to enhance manufacturing
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