USAID/Ukraine Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity (ERA_AS)

Household and Business Economic Resilience Study of Government- Controlled Areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and Sea of Azov Region in Eastern Ukraine: 2020–2021 Study Report

February 12, 2021

1 This report was prepared for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) by SSG Advisors, LLC (d/b/a Resonance)

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development Ukraine Mission (USAID/Ukraine) by SSG Advisors, LLC (d/b/a Resonance), through Contract No. AID-72014118C00005

Principal USAID Contact: Larissa Piskunova, Contracting Officer’s Representative, [email protected]

Principal Author: Jane Shearer, Senior Technical Advisor, SSG Advisors, LLC (d/b/a Resonance)

Implemented By: SSG Advisors, LLC (d/b/a Resonance) 2000 P Street NW, Suite 410 Washington, DC 20036 Tel.: 202-548-7107

1 Mill Street, Suite 200 Burlington, VT 05401 USA Tel.: 802-735-1169

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021

USAID/Ukraine Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity (ERA_AS)

Household and Business Economic Resilience Study of Government-Controlled Areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and Sea of Azov Region in Eastern Ukraine: 2020–2021 Study Report

February 12, 2021

DISCLAIMER: The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

CONTENTS

Acronyms and Abbreviations ...... ii Executive Summary ...... 1 Section 1: Background ...... 5 Purpose ...... 5 Methodology ...... 5 Data Limitations and Challenges Encountered ...... 6 Section 2: Key Findings from GCA Donetsk and GCA Luhansk ...... 7 Unemployment Rate ...... 7 Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index ...... 8 Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index ...... 10 Economic Resilience Index ...... 11 Rates of Confidence in the Future Economy ...... 14 Economic Confidence by Business Respondents ...... 16 Section 3: Key Findings from Sea of Azov Region ...... 18 Unemployment Rate ...... 18 Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index ...... 19 Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index ...... 19 Rates of Confidence in the Future Economy ...... 20 Section 4: Conclusions ...... 22 GCA Donetsk and GCA Luhansk ...... 22 Sea of Azov Region ...... 23

ANNEX 1: ERA_AS Context Indicator Summary Table ...... 25

ANNEX 2: Characteristics of Survey Respondents ...... 30

ANNEX 3: SSSU Context Indicator Computations ...... 31

ANNEX 4: Economic Resilience Index Computations ...... 34

ANNEX 5: Data Collection Locations ...... 40

ANNEX 6: Study Instruments ...... 46 Household Survey Questionnaire ...... 46 Business Survey Questionnaire...... 65

ERA_AS 2020-2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page i ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ATO Anti-Terrorist Operation CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 CPI Consumer Price Index ERA Economic Resilience Activity ERA_AS Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity ERI Economic Resilience Index GCA Government-Controlled Area GCA-D Government-Controlled Area of Donetsk Oblast GCA-L Government-Controlled Area of Luhansk Oblast GDP Gross Domestic Product GRP Gross Regional Product IDP Internally Displaced Person KIIS Kyiv International Institute of Sociology PWD Person with Disabilities SoA Sea of Azov Region SSSU State Statistics Service of Ukraine UAH Ukrainian Hryvnia USD U.S. Dollar USAID United States Agency for International Development

ERA_AS 2020-2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity (ERA_AS) was awarded to SSG Advisors (d/b/a Resonance) in August 2018. A five-year contract, ERA_AS supports USAID/Ukraine through monitoring, evaluation, learning, and adaptive management efforts with respect to the Economic Resilience Activity (ERA), concurrently awarded to DAI Global LLC in August 2018. ERA is a six-year USAID activity that aims to improve the economic resilience of eastern Ukraine by providing assistance to stabilize the economy, support sustainable development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and build confidence in the future of the regional economy. As one of its core tasks, the ERA_AS team provides annual population-level analysis of economic trends by collecting information through household and business surveys and key informant interviews conducted across government-controlled areas of Donetsk (GCA-D) and Luhansk (GCA-L) oblasts and targeted areas in the Sea of Azov region. Findings from the annual study provide USAID/Ukraine and key stakeholders with key economic data to facilitate deeper understanding of the operating context. Based on analysis of 2020 data, economic metrics of unemployment and satisfaction with market systems have remained stable or even improved from last year despite the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although economic resilience in GCA-L rose slightly, it fell in GCA-D, mostly at the regional level. Most notably across the study, confidence in the future economy has dramatically declined, fueled by economic disruptions and uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Specific conclusions include the following:

• Widespread economic impact from COVID-19 is not evident in current macro-level metrics but is likely to manifest across all economies in the coming year and beyond. • Rates of confidence in the future economy among both individuals and businesses plummeted across all study regions, and more respondents believe that the future economy will worsen over the next two years than those who believe it will improve. • Both individual and business respondents who are confident in the future economy are most likely to cite positive changes in the local economy, including the number and types of jobs available and increased opportunities for self-employment or business expansion. • Labor force and business satisfaction with access to education and skills improvement services has improved across all study regions, especially in GCA-L. Conversely, satisfaction with hard infrastructure and public services continues to be low. • Economic challenges related to the conflict in eastern Ukraine continue to have less of an impact on economic opportunity than in past years across all study regions, especially in GCA-D and GCA-L. • Market systems in GCA-L show signs of strengthening at several levels, including improved access to education and skills training, a more qualified workforce, a more diversified economy, better public service support, and improvements in hard infrastructure. • Although unemployment rates across the Sea of Azov region have declined slightly, unemployment in Melitopol remains high, coupled with a surge in reductions of worker hours from full-time to part-time.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 1 Exhibits 1 and 2 provide current values and key findings for study indicators by geographic region.

Exhibit 1. Indicator Values and Key Findings: GCA Donetsk (GCA-D) and GCA Luhansk (GCA-L) Indicator Value by Oblast Key Findings GCA-D GCA-L Unemployment Rate [per the Government of Ukraine State Statistics Service (SSSU)] • The unemployment rate for GCA-D calculated by SSSU rose slightly to 15.0 percent in 2020, fairly in line with the national half-point increase in unemployment. In comparison, the 2020 ERA_AS study calculated an unemployment rate of 16.2 percent for GCA-D. • The unemployment rate for GCA-L calculated by SSSU is 16.0 percent. Over the 15.0% 16.0% past three years, unemployment rates published by SSSU and those derived from the ERA_AS study have been very similar. In 2020, however, the SSSU unemployment rate for GCA-L is much higher than the ERA_AS study rate of only 7.6 percent, a discrepancy discussed in detail in Section 3, Key Findings from GCA Donetsk and GCA Luhansk: Unemployment Rate. Gross Regional Product (GRP) per Capita [per SSSU, in U.S. Dollars (USD)] • GRP per capita in GCA-D has increased steadily over the study period from $1,257 in 2018 to $1,697 in 2020, with a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2 percent, only 3.0 percentage points lower than the national growth $1,697 $602 rate. • In GCA-L, GRP per capita fell last year from a baseline value of $555 but rebounded to $602 in 2020 with a study-period CAGR of 4.1 percent. Disposable Income per Capita (per SSSU, in USD) • Annual disposable income per capita increased in both oblasts by about 25.0 percent $1.516 $948 over the study period—at a slightly faster pace than increases across Ukraine nationally. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (per SSSU) • The CPI fell in both GCA-D and GCA-L relative to past years, signaling lower prices in both oblasts for commonly consumed goods. • However, ERA_AS respondents who believe the economy will get worse over the 101.3 100.8 next two years cited increases in the prices of goods and services as the most common reason for their lack of confidence in the future economy. This discrepancy is discussed in detail in Section 3, Key Findings from GCA Donetsk and GCA Luhansk: Confidence in the Future Economy. Economic Resilience Index • The 2020 ERI Composite Score for GCA-D dropped 3.5 points to 35.8 out of 100, compared to 39.3 in 2018. The resilience decline in GCA-D emerged primarily at the regional level, where resilience related to sector diversity and the national government’s ability to respond to economic shocks fell the most, followed closely by job diversity. • The 2020 ERI Composite Score for GCA-L rose slightly to 38.4 out of 100, 35.8 38.4 compared to 37.8 in 2018. Resilience at the business level improved the most in GCA-L compared to baseline, influenced mostly by increased access to skills improvement services and reduced barriers to market entry. • Across both oblasts, access to skills improvement services increased substantially at the household (labor force) level, followed by an increase in the ability to borrow money from a wider variety of sources. Unemployment Rate (per ERA_AS Study) ● The unemployment rate is 16.2 percent in GCA-D, a slight increase over 2019. Rates of optimism by unemployed individuals who believe they will find a job in the

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 2 Indicator Value by Oblast Key Findings GCA-D GCA-L next year fell to 31.6 percent compared to 38.2 percent in 2019. 16.2% 7.6% ● The unemployment rate is 7.6 percent in GCA-L, a significant decrease compared to 2019. Rates of optimism by unemployed individuals that they will find a job in the next year fell to 20.0 percent from 24.3 percent in 2019. Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index (per ERA_AS Study) ● The 2020 GCA-D Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index score is 49.1 out of 100, generally consistent with scores from the past two years. The GCA- D labor force is most satisfied with the lack of negative impact that the eastern conflict has had on its ability to pursue economic opportunities, followed closely by 49.1 44.2 education and skills training. ● The 2020 GCA-L Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index score is 44.2 out of 100, a steady increase across the study period. The GCA-L labor force continues to be most satisfied with soft infrastructure and education and skills training, similar to the past two years. Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index (per ERA_AS Study) ● The 2020 GCA-D Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index score is 49.5 out of 100, generally consistent with scores from the past two years. GCA-D business respondent satisfaction improved most with the lack of negative impact from the conflict, followed by soft infrastructure, financial resources, and public 49.5 50.7 services. ● The 2020 GCA-L Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index score is 50.7 out of 100, almost ten points higher than last year’s score of 40.8. GCA-L business respondent satisfaction improved most with education and skills training and the lack of negative impact from the conflict, followed by hard infrastructure. Percent of Respondents Who Express Confidence in the Economic Future of the Region (per ERA_AS Study) ● Only 4.9 percent of individual respondents in GCA-D believe their oblast economy will get better over the next two years, a decline of 18.6 percentage points from 2019. ● Only 4.6 percent of individual respondents in GCA-L believe their oblast economy will get better over the next two years, a decline of 23.3 percentage points from Individua Individual 2019. ls s 4.6% ● The few individuals in both oblasts who expressed confidence in the future economy 4.9% cited changes in the local economy as the source of their optimism, specifically improvements in the number and types of jobs available locally. ● Individuals across both oblasts without confidence in the economic future noted increased prices of goods and services as the predominant reason, specifically of essential items—food, heating oil, housing, clothing, utilities, and transportation. ● 35.5 percent of business respondents in GCA-D believe their oblast economy will get better over the next two years, a decline of 26.0 percentage points from 2019. ● 30.1 percent of business respondents in GCA-L believe their oblast economy will get Business Business better over the next two years, a decline of 17.4 percentage points from 2019. es es ● Business respondents across both oblasts cited changes in the local economy as the 35.5% 30.1% most common reason for believing the economy will improve over the next two years, as well as the most common reason for believing the economy will get worse. In GCA-L, several business respondents also referenced wildfires near the conflict zone as a reason the future economy will get worse.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 3 Exhibit 2. Indicator Values and Key Findings: Sea of Azov Region Indicator Key Findings Value Unemployment Rate (per ERA_AS Study) ● The unemployment rate is 16.9 percent in the Sea of Azov region, including 20.8 percent in Melitopol, 12.2 percent in Berdiansk, and 11.5 percent in Mariupol. These rates are between 3.6 percentage points and 5.1 percentage points lower than those from last year. 16.9% ● Rates of optimism among unemployed individuals that they will find a job in the next year are 42.2 percent for the Sea of Azov region. Unemployed workers in Berdiansk are the most optimistic (60.0 percent), followed by Melitopol (50.0 percent) and Mariupol (44.4 percent). Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index (per ERA_AS Study) ● The 2020 Sea of Azov Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index score is 47.2 out of 100, slightly higher than last year’s score of 44.0. Within the urban poles, Berdiansk had the lowest score at 44.9; Melitopol (47.3) and Mariupol (47.0) scored essentially the same. ● The Sea of Azov labor force continues to be most satisfied with the lack of negative impact 47.2 from the eastern conflict, followed by soft infrastructure and education and skills training. ● Within the three urban poles, labor force participants in Mariupol are much more satisfied with education and skills training than those in either Melitopol or Berdiansk, while the labor force in Berdiansk is extremely dissatisfied with hard infrastructure. Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index (per ERA_AS Study) ● The 2020 Sea of Azov Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index score is 54.0 out of 100, eight points higher than last year’s score of 46.1. Scores across the urban poles are fairly consistent: 53.8 in Melitopol, 52.7 in Berdiansk, and 53.6 in Mariupol. ● Compared to 2019, satisfaction among Sea of Azov business respondents increased most with 54.0 hard infrastructure, financial resources, public services, and lack of negative impact from the eastern conflict. ● Within the three urban poles, mild deviations in business respondent satisfaction were observed in public services, where Melitopol respondents were least satisfied and Mariupol respondents were most satisfied. Percent of Respondents Who Express Confidence in the Economic Future of the Region (per ERA_AS Study) ● 16.4 percent of individual respondents in the Sea of Azov region believe their oblast economy will get better over the next two years: 23.9 percent in Melitopol, 19.2 percent in Berdiansk, and 10.2 percent in Mariupol. Rates of confidence in the future economy among individuals Individuals dropped by 19.5 percentage points in Melitopol, 21.5 in Berdiansk, and 7.7 in Mariupol. ● Respondents expressing confidence overwhelmingly noted changes in household resources as 16.4% reasons for confidence, including access to jobs and opportunities for self-employment. ● Individuals expressing lack of confidence in the future economy cited increased prices of goods and services as the predominant reason. Respondents frequently mentioned concerns over prices in all categories—food, heating oil, housing, clothing, utilities, and transportation. ● 38.9% of business respondents in the Sea of Azov region believe their oblast economy will get better over the next two years: 46.4 percent in Melitopol, 25.4 percent in Berdiansk, and 45.9 percent in Mariupol. Rates of confidence among business respondents dropped by 10.2 percentage points in Melitopol, 26.9 in Berdiansk, and 18.4 in Mariupol compared to 2019. Businesses ● Business respondents cited changes in the local economy—such as number and types of jobs available, opportunities for business expansion, and increases in average income—as the most 38.9% common reason for believing the economy will improve over the next two years, followed by changes in government. ● Changes in the local economy—including job availability, opportunities for business expansion, and decreases in average income—were also the primary reasons given by business respondents without confidence in the future economy of their oblast.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 4 SECTION 1: BACKGROUND

Purpose To assist USAID/Ukraine in better understanding the operating context in eastern Ukraine— and, more specifically, the ever-evolving challenges and opportunities in the region—ERA_AS provides population-level analysis of economic trends. ERA_AS conducts statistically representative mixed-methods household and business surveys annually, key informant interviews with regional officials and organizations biennially, and quarterly desk research to inform an annual study. This data is used to populate context indicators that track changes (or stagnancies) over time, provide informational presentations to key stakeholders, and create more detailed topical briefs of interest to USAID/Ukraine. This report presents key findings and conclusions from the annual study. Through the annual study, ERA_AS reports on nine context indicators across GCA-D and GCA-L oblasts and four context indicators across the Sea of Azov region and its urban poles. All nine indicators collected by ERA_AS are considered context indicators; primary context indicators are populated through the ERA_AS annual study, and secondary context indicators are populated through data reported by the Government of Ukraine’s State Statistics Service (SSSU). Annex 1 outlines the nine context indicators, disaggregates, and their values over time.

Methodology The baseline study was conducted in 2018 and included GCA-D and GCA-L; additional geographic areas from the Sea of Azov region were added in 2019. ERA_AS partners with Ukrainian research institution Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) to conduct the household and business survey data collection fieldwork and a Ukrainian local economic consultant to conduct key informant interviews. ERA_AS uses secondary data from SSSU to populate four context indicators for GCA-D and GCA-L. Data collection for the 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study was conducted from late August through October 2020. The household survey sample frame was based on oblast population above the age of 18. From this, a statistically representative sample of 600 each was created for GCA-D and GCA-L with a margin of error of 4.0 percent at a 95.0 confidence level. This sample size was replicated for the Sea of Azov region when it was added to the annual study in 2019. In GCA-D, 600 individuals were interviewed for the household survey, evenly divided between men and women. In GCA- L, 600 individuals were interviewed for the household survey, almost evenly divided between males (50.2 percent) and females (49.8 percent). In the Sea of Azov region, 601 individuals were interviewed for the household survey; 48.9 percent were male and 51.1 percent female. In the three Sea of Azov urban poles, 100 individuals in Melitopol, 100 in Berdiansk, and 181 in Mariupol were interviewed, with fairly even representation by males and females in each. Findings for Sea of Azov urban poles are not statistically significant due to the small sample size but nonetheless provide insights. The business survey sample frame was based on businesses registered formally with the United State Register of Legal Entities and Public Organizations of Ukraine, 2019. From this, a statistically representative sample 200 each was created for GCA-D and GCA-L with a margin of error of 6.0 percent at a 90.0 confidence level. This sample size was replicated for the Sea of Azov

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 5 region when it was added to the annual study in 2019. Representatives of 200 businesses were interviewed for the study in GCA-D, 202 in GCA-L, and 252 in the Sea of Azov region. In the three Sea of Azov urban poles, representatives from 70 businesses in Melitopol, 97 in Berdiansk, and 50 in Mariupol were interviewed. Similar to the household study, findings for Sea of Azov urban poles are not statistically significant due to the small sample size. Annex 2 presents more information on household and business survey respondents.

Data Limitations and Challenges Encountered COVID-19 Pandemic • KIIS household survey enumerators took precautions to prevent COVID-19 transmission to or from respondents during in-person data collection, including wearing masks, conducting interviews outdoors when possible, providing respondents with hand sanitizer before and after handling showcards, and regularly disinfecting contact surfaces. Business Survey Sample • In each year of the study, KIIS has During in-person data collection, KIIS household encountered challenges related to the survey enumerators took precautions to prevent COVID-19 transmission. limited pool of businesses within the study regions from which to sample. Even with formal business registrations updated in 2019, the majority of registered businesses (82.0 percent) could not be reached due to incorrect contact information, unanswered calls, or defunct business status. As a result, KIIS gets as close as possible to the original business size stratification requested by USAID and ERA_AS of 75.0 percent micro and small enterprises and 25.0 percent medium and large enterprises. • This issue also affected sample construction for the Sea of Azov region by preventing KIIS from oversampling Mariupol businesses to account for its geographic locations in both GCA-D and the Sea of Azov region. As a result, we duplicated Mariupol business respondents across the two geographic samples.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 6 SECTION 2: KEY FINDINGS FROM GCA DONETSK AND GCA LUHANSK

Sections 2 and 3 present study data from GCA-D and GCA-L, and the Sea of Azov region, respectively. Major findings are presented in red boldface text, followed by supporting graphics and supplemental information.

Unemployment Rate ERA_AS household survey respondents are asked to self-identify whether and how they participate in the labor force. Based on their responses, respondents who are either employed—formally or informally, full-time or part-time—or unemployed but actively looking for work are counted in the active labor force. Based on that population of workers, ERA_AS calculates a simplified unemployment rate for each study region that includes all individual respondents within the labor force who self-identify as “unemployed but actively looking for work” regardless of age, how long they have been unemployed, or how actively they have been looking for new work.

Despite anticipated impact from COVID-19, unemployment rates rose only slightly in GCA-D, to 16.2 percent.

• The active labor force constitutes 43.2 percent of Exhibit 3. Unemployment Rate: the population in GCA-D. Within the labor force, GCA-D the unemployment rate is 16.2 percent, a slight increase in the oblast compared to last year. SSSU unemployment data shows a 15.0 percent unemployment rate for the oblast, compared to 9.6 percent for Ukraine nationally.1 • Rates of optimism among unemployed individuals who believe they will find a job in the next year fell to 31.6 percent (compared to 38.2 percent last year) in GCA-D. • About one-quarter of the total labor force in GCA- D (22.8 percent) are either unemployed or underemployed in terms of wanting to work additional hours each week. • Employed individuals are increasingly working in full-time positions (88.8 percent compared to 84.9 percent in 2019).

1 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 7 Even in the midst of economic uncertainty, unemployment rates in GCA-L dropped to only 7.6 percent, much lower than last year’s rate or the SSSU rate for the oblast.

• The active labor force comprises 37.2 percent of Exhibit 4. Unemployment Rate: GCA-L the GCA-L population, 7.6 percent of which is unemployed. This represents a significant decrease compared to 2019 data from last year’s study (15.2 percent). The 7.6 percent unemployment rate is also much lower than the SSSU unemployment rate for GCA-L, of 16.0 percent. 2, 3 • Only 20.0 percent of unemployed individuals in GCA-L believe they will find a job in the next year, compared to 24.3 percent last year. • About one-quarter of the total labor force in GCA-L (23.3 percent) are either unemployed or underemployed in terms of wanting to work additional hours each week. • Employed individuals are increasingly working in full-time positions (81.1 percent compared to 74.0 percent in 2019).

Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index The Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index annually tracks the degree to which individuals in the active labor force feel satisfied with their access to or experiences with market system variables that affect their ability to take advantage of economic opportunities. This index measures five variables4 to create a composite score ranging from 0 to 100, where 100 represents perfect satisfaction.

2 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information. 3 To assess this diversion from past study data and SSSU data, ERA_AS analyzed individual respondent data and determined that there were no significant deviations compared to previous years in (1) number of individuals who left the work force in the past 12 months (who would be excluded from this year’s active labor force and/or unemployment rate), (2) number of individuals who began working part-time (who may have been previously unemployed), or (3) number of individuals working in the informal sector (who may have previously been unemployed). GCA-L workers had relatively high rates of departure from the labor force over the past year, which could account for rate changes via formerly unemployed workers leaving the labor force altogether. However, the majority (84.6 percent) left for personal reasons, not due to frustration in not finding a job while unemployed. 4 The Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index measures satisfaction by labor force participants with the following five variables as they relate to a respondent’s ability to maintain or find a job: (1) access to education and skills improvement services; (2) hard infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, buildings); (3) soft infrastructure (e.g., utilities, telecommunications, internet); (4) public programs, services, and support; and (5) absence of negative impact from the eastern conflict. (Note that this is an inversed variable; the higher the score, the less negative impact.) Each of the five variables is scored separately and given equal weight in computing the composite score ranging from 0 to 100.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 8 GCA-D labor force satisfaction with market system variables has remained relatively consistent over the past three years—including continued low levels of satisfaction with hard infrastructure and public services. Exhibit 5. Access to Economic Opportunities • The 2020 Access to Economic for Individuals Index: GCA-D Opportunities for Individuals Index score is 49.1 out of 100 for GCA-D, generally consistent with past years. • The GCA-D labor force expressed the most satisfaction with the lack of negative impact that the eastern conflict has had on its ability to pursue economic opportunities, followed closely by education and skills training. • Conversely, the labor force is least satisfied with hard infrastructure needed for work, and its dissatisfaction with public services has declined consistently over the study years. • Separate from the Index, data from SSSU also shows that disposable income per capita increased by 21.8 percent in GCA-D in 2020, to $1,516, in line with rate increases across Ukraine.5

GCA-L labor force satisfaction with market system components has improved gradually over the past three years. Although respondent satisfaction with lack of impact from the eastern conflict is the most improved variable from baseline, it still has the most negative effect on economic opportunities. Exhibit 6. Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index: GCA-L • The 2020 Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index score is 44.2 out of 100 for GCA-L, marking a steady increase across the three years of the study. • The GCA-L labor force continues to be most satisfied with soft infrastructure and education and skills training, similar to the past two years. Although the labor force remains generally dissatisfied with public services, this variable has steadily improved over the three study years. • Separate from the Index, data from SSSU also shows that disposable income per capita increased by 21.2 percent in GCA-L in 2020 to $948, in line with rates of income increases across Ukraine.6

5 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 9 Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index The Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index annually tracks the degree to which business owners and managers feel satisfied with their access to or experiences with market system variables that affect their ability to operate or expand their businesses. This index measures 10 variables7 to create a composite score ranging from 0 to 100, where 100 represents perfect satisfaction. Over the study period, GCA-D business owners and managers have been relatively consistent in their satisfaction with market system variables; the lack of negative impact from the eastern conflict is the most improved variable.

• The 2020 Access to Economic Exhibit 7. Access to Economic Opportunities for Opportunities for Businesses Index Businesses: GCA-D score is 49.5 out of 100 for GCA-D, generally consistent with scores from the past two years. • Compared to past years, GCA-D business respondent satisfaction has improved most regarding the lack of negative impact from the conflict, followed by soft infrastructure, financial resources, and public services. Conversely, satisfaction with input suppliers has continued to decline each year. • Separate from the Index, increased gross regional product (GRP)—the value of goods and services produced within a geographic region—is a by-product of improved market systems. SSSU data on GRP

per capita for 2020 shows an

6 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information. 7 The Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index measures satisfaction by businesses with 10 variables as they relate to a respondent’s ability to operate or expand their business: (1) access to education and skills improvement services; (2) hard infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, buildings); (3) soft infrastructure (e.g., utilities, telecommunications, internet); (4) public programs, services, and support; (5) absence of negative impact from the eastern conflict (note that this is an inversed variable; the higher the score, the less negative impact); (6) input suppliers; (7) business support services (e.g., legal, accounting, financial, marketing); (8) qualified workforce; (9) ability to access new markets; and (10) ability to access business capital. Each of the 10 variables is scored separately and given equal weight in computing the composite score ranging from 0 to 100.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 10 increase of 14.0 percent to $1,697 in GCA-D.8 Over the study period, gross regional product per capita in GCA-D has steadily increased from $1,257 at baseline, just a few percentage points under rates for Ukraine nationally.

Business respondents in GCA-L increased their satisfaction with market system variables by 10.0 points compared to 2019, especially related to education and skills training and the lack of negative impact from the conflict.

Exhibit 8. Access to Economic Opportunities for • The 2020 GCA-L Access to Businesses: GCA-L Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index score is 50.7 out of 100 for GCA-L, 10.0 points higher than last year’s score of 40.8. • Compared to past years, GCA-L business respondent satisfaction has improved most with education and skills training and the lack of negative impact from the conflict, followed by hard infrastructure. • Separate from the Index, SSSU data on 2020 GRP per capita in GCA-L shows an increase of 14.7 percent to $602.9 This is a positive economic improvement from last year, when GRP per capita actually decreased to $525 from a baseline value of $555.

Economic Resilience Index The Economic Resilience Index (ERI) is an ERA_AS custom index that measures economic resilience in both GCA-D and GCA-L at four structural levels—regional, institutional, household, and business. Data from household surveys, business surveys, and key informant interviews is used to populate multiple variables within each sub-index,10 whose separate scores are averaged to create a single ERI composite score for each oblast based on a 100-point scale. The ERI was first computed during the baseline study in 2018 and is re-calculated biennially (in 2020 and 2022).

8 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information. 9 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information. 10 See Annex 4 for a full list of ERI Sub-Index variables and individual scores.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 11 Resilience in GCA-D declined at the regional, institutional, and business levels (and stayed essentially the same at the household level) compared to 2018. Exhibit 9. Economic Resilience Index: GCA-D

• The 2020 ERI Composite Score for GCA-D dropped almost four points to 35.8 out of 100, compared to 39.3 in 2018. • The ERI Regional Sub-Index score for “Now the oblast is in a difficult situation; GCA-D declined the most, to 23.7, investments are almost non-existent. The compared to the baseline score of 32.9. enterprises that existed during the Soviet Union Attitudes related to sector diversity and are working, nothing new appears. Practically the national government’s ability to nothing new has been built during these years.” respond to economic shocks declined the -Private Sector Representative (GCA-D) most, followed closely by job diversity. • The ERI Institutional Sub-Index score for GCA-D is 29.5, compared to the baseline score of 33.3. Perceptions of government and civil society coordination and financial institution response to economic shocks weakened the most. • The ERI Household Sub-Index score for GCA-D is 44.9, compared to the baseline score of 43.5. Access to skills improvement services rose significantly. The length of time respondents can live off current savings in an emergency declined more than other variables but was offset by an increase in the ability to borrow money from a variety of sources. • The ERI Business Sub-Index score for GCA-D is 44.9, compared to the baseline score of 47.6. Market diversification and the educational level of business owners and managers declined more than any other variables.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 12 In GCA-L, resilience fell at the regional and institutional levels, but rose at the household and business levels, compared to 2018. Exhibit 10. Economic Resilience Index: GCA-L

• The 2020 ERI Composite Score for GCA-L rose slightly to 38.4 out of 100, compared to 37.8 in 2018.

• The ERI Regional Sub-Index score for “Among the changes that are taking place: the GCA-L is 28.5, compared to the baseline processing of agricultural products is deepening. In score of 31.3. Attitudes related to the general, there is processing (mainly primary)— regional government’s ability to monitor drying, sorting, canning. In other words, it's better economic shocks, as well as attitudes than it was. Alternative energy has also emerged as about the regional and local government’s a sector; it can be said that it is a business, not just ability to respond to economic shocks, to provide electricity for households. There are companies that can fully deploy the power plant.” declined the most. However, sector -Government Official (GCA-L) diversity and the national government’s ability to respond to economic shocks increased substantially. • The ERI Institutional Sub-Index score for GCA-L is 32.1, compared to the baseline score of 32.7. Although attitudes related to government and civil society coordination fell the most, attitudes improved substantially for the national government staff’s ability to respond to economic shocks. • The ERI Household Sub-Index score for GCA-L is 44.9, compared to the baseline score of 42.9. Access to skills improvement services improved substantially, followed by an increase in the ability to borrow money from a wider variety of sources.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 13 • The ERI Business Sub-Index score for GCA-L improved the most at 48.3, compared to the baseline score of 44.1. This improvement was driven mostly by improved access to skills development services and reduced barriers to new market entry.

Across both oblasts, key informants mentioned concerns about government capacity to monitor, analyze, and respond to economic shocks and stresses. “[Speaking to the situation across the region and the country] There are no reliable statistics or specific tools and mechanisms…to assess the situation. For example, since the COVID crisis that started in March, we can feel the colossal negative impact on the jobs situation, incomes. To my mind, for shop owners or restaurant and cafe owners, it's minus 50.0 percent from income. But there is no official government think tank that would assess the damage as a result of the COVID, which sector suffered most, what happened on the labor market…and no such analysis or official recommendations, neither on the national level nor at the regional level. There has been some kind of quick assessment of the situation by different expert groups, NGOs, UNDP, but there is no clear picture. The government has no capacity to do the solid assessments of the situation, so decisions are made on feelings, what people are posting on Facebook or Instagram instead of a solid assessment using predefined assessment tools.” -Non-Governmental Organization Representative

Rates of Confidence in the Future Economy Respondents for both the individual and business ERA_AS surveys are asked whether they believe the economy of their oblast will get better or worse over the next two years, to what degree, and on what factors they base their beliefs. Respondents who believe the economy will “much better” or “somewhat better” are combined to populate rates of confidence.

Economic Confidence by Individual Respondents Less than 5.0 percent of individuals in GCA-D are confident the economy will improve over the next two years, almost 19.0 percentage points lower than confidence rates from last year. Exhibit 11. Individual Confidence in • Only 4.9 percent of individual respondents in GCA-D the Future Economy: GCA-D have confidence that their oblast economy will get better over the next two years, a rate that dropped by 18.6 percentage points compared to 2019. • Changes in the local economy, such as improvements in the number and types of jobs available locally, were the most commonly cited reason for confidence. • In GCA-D, more individuals think the economy will get worse over the next two years (21.2 percent) than those who think it will get better (4.9 percent). These respondents based their feelings on increased prices of goods and services across several categories—food, heating oil, housing, clothing, utilities, and transportation.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 14 Although SSSU 2020 Consumer Price Index data actually reflects decreases in prices compared to 2019 (a decline of 2.8 percent in GCA-D),11 a May 2020 study along the contact line in eastern Ukraine revealed that over 80.0 percent of respondents had been impacted by increased prices of food, hygiene items, and additional transport costs as a result of COVID-19. Pandemic restrictions resulted in increased production and distribution prices throughout supply chains, which were passed to customers. The depreciation of the Ukrainian Hryvnia also contributed to the increase.12 Additionally, the National Democratic Institute August 2020 national survey revealed that 72.0 percent indicated that rising prices are among the most major changes that have occurred after the 2019 election.13 • Although rates of confidence in the future economy are at their lowest study levels in GCA- D this year, far fewer respondents feel that the economy will get worse—even within the COVID-19 context—than at baseline, when the eastern conflict was much more of a concern. • When respondents were asked whether they thought there would be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in the region over the next five years, only 1.9 percent believed there would be, compared to 47.7 percent last year.

Just over 4.5 percent of individuals in GCA-L are confident that the economy will get better over the next two years, rates that have plummeted from last year.

Exhibit 12. Individual Confidence in the • Only 4.6 percent of individuals in GCA-L Future Economy: GCA-L believe their oblast economy will get better over the next two years, a rate that dropped by 23.3 percentage points compared to 2019. • The few individuals in GCA-L who expressed confidence in the future economy cited changes in the local economy as the source of their optimism—and specifically mentioned improvements in the number and types of jobs available locally. • In GCA-L, 17.5 percent of individuals believe the economy will get worse (compared to only 4.6 percent who think it will get better), based on increased prices of goods and essential services—housing, utilities, food, clothing, and transportation. SSSU 2020 Consumer Price Index data actually reflects decreases in

11 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information. 12 Norwegian Refugee Council. “Ukraine: Food Security and Livelihoods Assessment.” May 2020. (Published July 3, 2020). 13 National Democratic Institute (NDI). “NDI Poll: Opportunities and Challenges Facing Ukraine’s Democratic Transition.” August 2020. (Published September 30, 2020.)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 15 prices compared to 2019 (decline of 2.2 percent in GCA-L),14 but similar concerns about higher prices have been cited as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the challenges it has created both for revenue generation and supply chain efficiency.15 • Rates of confidence in the future economy among individuals are at their lowest study levels in GCA-L, but there are far fewer respondents this year who feel that the economy will get worse—even within the COVID-19 context—than at baseline, when the eastern conflict was much more of a concern. In 2018, there was a 46.5 percentage point “negative attitude” gap in GCA-L (compared to 12.9 percent this year) between respondents who felt that the economy would get worse and those who thought it would get better, driven at least partially by impact from the eastern conflict. • When respondents were asked whether they thought there would be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in the region over the next five years, less than one percent (0.5 percent) believed there would be, compared to 37.5 percent last year.

Economic Confidence by Business Respondents

Rates of confidence by business respondents in GCA-D fell by almost half this year— from 61.5 percent to 35.5 percent.

• More than one in three (35.5 percent) business Exhibit 13. Business Confidence in the respondents in GCA-D believe their oblast Future Economy: GCA-D economy will get better over the next two years, a significant decline of 26.0 percentage points compared to last year. They cited positive changes in the local economy, including opportunities for business expansion and increases in average income, as the most common reason for their confidence. This was followed closely by the lack of impact from the eastern conflict. • Similar to other study years, rates of confidence among business respondents are higher than among individuals (4.9 percent). • In GCA-D, about the same rate of business respondents think the economy will get worse (32.3 percent) as those who think it will get better (35.5 percent). These respondents also based their belief on changes in the local economy that they considered to be in decline. • When business respondents were asked whether they thought there would be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in the region over the next five years, 86.2 percent believed there would be, compared to 94.7 percent last year.

14 State Statistics Service of Ukraine. www.ukrstat.gov.ua. See Annex 3 for additional information. 15 National Democratic Institute. “NDI Poll: Opportunities and Challenges Facing Ukraine’s Democratic Transition.” August 2020. (Published September 30, 2020.)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 16 In GCA-L, rates of confidence among business respondents have continued to slide from a high of 57.2 percent at baseline down to 30.1 percent this year. • 30.1 percent of business respondents in GCA-L Exhibit 14. Business Confidence in the believe their oblast economy will get better over Future Economy: GCA-L the next two years, a decline of 17.4 percentage points from last year. They cited positive changes in the local economy, such as opportunities for self-employment and increases in average income—as the most common reason for believing the economy will improve over the next two years. Changes in government, including new elected officials, policies, and budget priorities, and the lack of impact from the conflict were the next two most common reasons for confidence in the future economy. • As in other study years, rates of confidence among business respondents in GCA-L continue to be higher than those for individuals (4.6 percent). • In GCA-L, about the same rate of business respondents think the economy will get worse (29.5 percent) as those who think it will get better (30.1 percent). Over the study years in GCA-L, the rate of “confident” business respondents has steadily declined, while the rate of “not confident” business respondents has risen. Compared to several positive trends from the oblast, this finding is an outlier. These “not confident” respondents also cited changes in the local economy as the reason for their lack of economic optimism, followed by concerns related to the wildfires near the conflict zone. • When business respondents were asked whether they thought there would be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in the region over the next five years, 86.1 percent believed there would be, compared to 89.6 percent last year.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 17 SECTION 3: KEY FINDINGS FROM SEA OF AZOV REGION

In 2019, USAID ERA expanded its support to key economic poles along the Sea of Azov. That year, ERA_AS added the new geographic area to its annual study.16 For the Sea of Azov region, data is collected at the regional level for Henichesk city and rayon in Kherson oblast; Berdiansk and Melitopol cities and the Berdiansky, Prymorsky, Pryazovsky, and Melitopolsky rayons in Zaporizhzhia oblast; and Mariupol city in GCA-D oblast (also included in GCA-D data findings). As appropriate, data is presented at the regional level and/or for the three urban poles of interest to USAID/Ukraine: Melitopol, Berdiansk, and Mariupol. Descriptions of each indicator are found in Section 2, Key Findings from GCA Donetsk and GCA Luhansk.

Unemployment Rate Within each of the three Sea of Azov urban poles, unemployment rates fell four to five percentage points compared to last year—but remain high in Melitopol. • The active labor force constitutes 49.1 Exhibit 15. Unemployment Rates: Sea of Azov percent of the population in the Sea of Region Azov region: 48.0 percent in Melitopol, 41.0 percent in Berdiansk, and 43.1 percent in Mariupol. Unemployment is 16.9 percent in the Sea of Azov region: 20.8 percent in Melitopol, 12.2 percent in Berdiansk, and 11.5 percent in Mariupol— each four to five percentage points lower than in 2019. • Rates of optimism among unemployed workers who believe that they will find a job in the next year is 42.2 percent for the Sea of Azov region; those in Berdiansk are the most optimistic (60.0 percent), followed by Melitopol (50.0 percent) and Mariupol (44.4 percent). • In Melitopol, unemployed and underemployed workers comprise 70.8 percent of the labor force combined, mostly due to a significant, unwelcome shift by workers from full-time to part-time hours (50.0 percent of employed workers would like to work additional hours each week). Combined rates of unemployment and underemployment are 29.3 percent in Berdiansk and 12.8 percent in Mariupol. • While the rate of full-time workers increased in both Berdiansk and Mariupol, it fell dramatically from 61.5 percent to only 18.4 percent in Melitopol, evidenced by the surge in underemployment. In Berdiansk, the rate of full-time workers is 66.7 percent (compared to 69.6 percent in 2019); in Mariupol, 95.7 percent of workers are full-time (compared to 85.5 percent in 2019).

16 Since the USAID/Ukraine “Sea of Azov region” is not an official geographic region with official representatives or data sources, it is not included in either the Economic Resilience Index or secondary data context indicators populated by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 18 Access to Economic Opportunities for Individuals Index Except for a slight decrease in satisfaction with public services, labor force satisfaction in the Sea of Azov region has improved across all variables. Exhibit 16. Access to Economic Opportunities • The 2020 Access to Economic for Individuals Index: Sea of Azov Region Opportunities for Individuals Index score is 47.2 out of 100 for the Sea of Azov, slightly higher than last year’s score of 44.0. Within the urban poles, Berdiansk had the lowest score at 44.9; Melitopol (47.3) and Mariupol (47.0) scored essentially the same. • The Sea of Azov labor force continues to be most satisfied with the lack of negative impact from the eastern conflict, followed by soft infrastructure and education and skills training. • Within the three urban poles, labor force participants in Mariupol are much more satisfied with education and skills training than those in Melitopol or Berdiansk; the labor force in Berdiansk is extremely dissatisfied with hard infrastructure.

Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index Business satisfaction with market systems in the Sea of Azov region has improved across all variables. Exhibit 17. Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses: Sea of Azov Region • The 2020 Access to Economic Opportunities for Businesses Index score is 54.0 out of 100 for the Sea of Azov region, eight points higher than last year’s score of 46.1. Scores across urban poles are fairly consistent: 53.8 in Melitopol, 52.7 in Berdiansk, and 53.6 in Mariupol. • Since 2019, business respondent satisfaction increased most with hard infrastructure, financial resources, public services, and lack of negative impact from the eastern conflict. • Within the urban poles, there were mild deviations in business satisfaction with public services; Melitopol and Mariupol businesses were least and

most satisfied, respectively.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 19 Rates of Confidence in the Future Economy

Economic Confidence Among Individual Respondents Across the Sea of Azov region, rates of confidence for individual respondents reduced by about half compared to 2019. Within the three urban poles, rates are highest in Melitopol at 23.9 percent and lowest in Mariupol at only 10.2 percent. • 16.4 percent of individual Exhibit 18. Individual Confidence in the Future respondents in the Sea of Azov Economy: Sea of Azov Region region believe their oblast economy will get better over the next two years: 23.9 percent in Melitopol, 19.2 percent in Berdiansk, and 10.2 percent in Mariupol. Changes in household resources—especially access to jobs—were most commonly cited as reasons for confidence in the Sea of Azov region, followed closely by changes in the local economy—mostly increases in the number of jobs available. • Rates of confidence in the future economy among individuals dropped from last year by 19.5 percentage points in Melitopol, 21.5 percentage points in Berdiansk, and 7.7 percentage points in Mariupol. • In the Sea of Azov region, the rate of individual respondents who believe the economy will get worse (30.5 percent) is almost twice that of those who think it will get better (16.4 percent). This “negative attitude” gap is most pronounced in Berdiansk, where 38.5 percent of individual respondents think the economy will get worse, compared to 19.2 percent who think it will get better. These respondents attribute their lack of optimism to higher prices for goods and services, especially those essential to daily life like housing, utilities, clothing, and food. • When respondents were asked whether they thought there would be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in the region over the next five years, 3.6 percent believed there would be, compared to 53.7 percent last year.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 20 Economic Confidence Among Business Respondents Confidence by business respondents fell across the Sea of Azov region; the decline was most pronounced in Berdiansk, where rates of confidence were cut in half. • 38.9 percent of business respondents Exhibit 19. Business Confidence in the Future in the Sea of Azov are confident that Economy: Sea of Azov Region their oblast economy will improve over the next two years: 46.4 percent in Melitopol, 25.4 percent in Berdiansk, and 45.9 percent in Mariupol. They cited changes in the local economy—such as number and types of jobs available, opportunities for business expansion, and increases in average income—as the most common reason for believing the economy will improve over the next two years. • These rates of confidence among business respondents all declined from last year, most dramatically in Berdiansk with a 26.9 percentage point decrease. • Similar to last year, rates of confidence among business respondents are higher than those among individuals. In the Sea of Azov region, these differences are most pronounced in Mariupol (45.9 percent for business respondents compared to 10.2 percent for individuals). • Respondents who believe the future economy will worsen cited negative changes in local economy, including job availability, opportunities for self-employment or business expansion, and decreases in average income, as primary reasons for lack of optimism. • When respondents were asked whether they thought there would be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in the region over the next five years, 90.7 percent believed there would be, compared to 94.0 percent last year.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 21 SECTION 4: CONCLUSIONS

GCA Donetsk and GCA Luhansk Widespread economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic is not showing up in current macro-level metrics but is likely to manifest across all economies in the coming year and beyond. The study shows a distinctive discrepancy between the ability of businesses and labor force participants to operate normally—and concerns that the economy will get worse over the next two years. Given the uncertainty created by COVID-19, these concerns are realistic and signal heightened economic awareness to prepare for a potential downturn. Rates of confidence in the future economy among individuals and businesses dramatically declined in both oblasts, most notably in GCA-D, where business confidence dropped 26.0 percentage points from last year. Additionally, more individual and business respondents than in past years believe that the economy will actually get worse. In line with national polls conducted in 2020, loss of economic confidence is pervasive, due at least partially to effects from the COVID-19 pandemic.17 Respondents without economic confidence commonly cite increased prices of goods and services, limitations to business expansion, and the wildfires in GCA-L as reasons for concern. Both individual and business respondents who are confident in the future economy are most likely to cite positive changes in the local economy as the reason. This includes the number and types of jobs available and increased opportunities for self- employment or business expansion. More than changes in their personal household or business or changes in government, availability of jobs and business opportunities are the primary levers of economic confidence. Despite significantly reduced levels of confidence in the economic future at the two-year horizon, businesses in both GCA-D and GCA-L remain highly optimistic at the five-year horizon. About eighty-five percent of businesses in both oblasts believe there will be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in their respective regions over the next five years. Compared to individual respondents, businesses believe the economy will improve—not worsen—within the next five years. Labor force and business satisfaction with access to education and skills improvement services has improved significantly across both oblasts. Conversely, satisfaction with hard infrastructure and public services continues to be low in both oblasts. Specifically in GCA-L, satisfaction among both workers and business respondents with access to education and training services—either for themselves or for their workers—notably increased. In GCA-D, labor force satisfaction with public services is not only the lowest-ranking market system variable; it has declined steadily across all three study years. Economic challenges related to the conflict continue to have less of an impact on economic opportunity. Both individuals and businesses indicated increased satisfaction with

17 Norwegian Refugee Council. “Ukraine: Food Security and Livelihoods Assessment.” May 2020. (Published July 3, 2020).

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 22 the lack of negative impact from the eastern conflict. In GCA-D, this variable ranks highest in terms of labor force satisfaction with the market system. In GCA-L, it still ranks lowest, but is the most improved market system variable for the oblast’s labor force. For business respondents in both oblasts, it ranks in the top half of variable satisfaction. In terms of confidence in the future economy, businesses in both oblasts cite lack of negative impact from the conflict as a top reason they believe the economy will improve over the next two years. Market systems in GCA-L are strengthening. After several declines in improvement last year compared to 2018, GCA-L has rebounded and comfortably surpassed baseline values for most metrics. Market systems are stronger, especially as a result of the lack of economic impact by the eastern conflict, improved education and skills training (and greater availability of qualified staff), higher quality public services, and improvements in hard infrastructure. There is a greater diversity of economic sectors in GCA-L, and businesses experience fewer obstacles to new market entry. Evidence of stronger market systems is supported by a decline in unemployment, an increase in disposable income at a pace slightly more rapid than that of Ukraine nationally, and higher gross regional product. Most workers leave the labor force for personal reasons rather than lack of available jobs. Across the study years in both oblasts, individuals leave the labor force in high numbers annually—but predominantly for personal reasons, such as health or family, rather than frustration with not finding work while unemployed. Specifically, in GCA-L, employed workers also report higher rates of confidence in keeping their jobs compared to last year (despite impending COVID-19 concerns), possibly due to the reduced supply of available workers as a result of lower unemployment rates in the oblast.

Sea of Azov Region Satisfaction with market system variables needed by the labor force and businesses in order to pursue economic opportunities improved from last year, especially among business respondents. Except for a slight decrease in satisfaction with public services, labor force satisfaction in the Sea of Azov region improved across all variables. Within the urban poles, the greatest deviations in labor force satisfaction were seen in hard infrastructure and education and skills training. Increases in business satisfaction were related to hard infrastructure, financial resources, and public services. Compared to last year, fewer individuals and businesses in the Sea of Azov urban poles believe the economy will get better; more believe it will get worse. In line with national data on economic confidence during the pandemic,18 Sea of Azov respondents without confidence in the future economy commonly cited increased prices of goods and services, reduction in the number and types of jobs, and changes in government as common concerns. Despite reduced levels of confidence in the economic future at the two-year horizon, Sea of Azov businesses remain highly optimistic at the five-year horizon. Over ninety percent of businesses believe there will be more or better economic opportunities that will allow people to stay in the region over the next five years. Compared to individual

18 National Democratic Institute. “NDI Poll: Opportunities and Challenges Facing Ukraine’s Democratic Transition.” August 2020. (Published September 30, 2020.)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 23 respondents, businesses believe the economy will improve—not worsen—within the next five years. Unemployment rates across the region have declined slightly, although unemployment in Melitopol remains high and was coupled with a surge in reductions of worker hours from full-time to part-time. Of employed workers in Melitopol, there was a significant (and unwelcome) shift from full-time to part-time work. Less than 20.0 percent of workers are employed full-time, compared to over 60.0 percent in 2019. More than three-quarters of part-time workers would work additional hours if given the opportunity. Combined, over 70.0 percent of Melitopol’s labor force is either unemployed or underemployed. Although rates of confidence in the future economy fell in all three urban poles, both individuals and businesses in Melitopol are more optimistic than their counterparts in Berdiansk or Mariupol. Although the labor market is weakest in Melitopol (high rates of unemployment and underemployment), rates of confidence in the future economy are highest among individuals and businesses relative to Berdiansk or Mariupol. Business respondents in Melitopol are also the most satisfied of the urban poles with market system variables needed to operate or expand.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 24 ANNEX 1: ERA_AS CONTEXT INDICATOR SUMMARY TABLE ATO Anti-Terrorist Operation PWD Persons\ with Disabilities GCA-D Government-Controlled Area of Donetsk Oblast SoA Sea of Azov Region GCA-L Government-Controlled Area of Luhansk Oblast SSSU State Statistics Service of Ukraine IDP Internally Displaced Person UAH Ukrainian Hryvnia KII Key Informant Interview

Disaggregated Data Baseline (2018) 2019–2020 Study 2020–2021 Study By Source Date Value Date Value Date Value 1. Indicator: Unemployment rate by region Definition: The percentage of the economically active population that is unemployed as defined by the government of Ukraine. Donetsk and Luhansk data pertains only to government- controlled areas (GCAs). Working age is defined as 15–60 for men and 15–57 for women. Oblast SSSU Jan.– GCA-D Working age: Jan.– GCA-D Working age: Jan.–June GCA-D Working age: Sept. 14.5% Dec. 14.4% 2020 15.0% 2018 GCA-L Working age: 2018 GCA-L Working age: GCA-L Working age: 15.9% 16.0% 16.0% 2. Indicator: Gross Regional Product (GRP) per capita in target region in eastern Ukraine Definition: GRP measures economic output and productivity of a region. UAH is converted to USD ($) using an annual average exchange rate. Oblast SSSU 2016 GCA-D $1,257 (32,360 2017 GCA-D $1,489 (39,586 2018 GCA-D $1,697 (46,155 UAH) UAH) UAH) GCA-L $555 (14,262 GCA-L $525 (13,954 GCA-L $602 (16,424 UAH) UAH) UAH) 3. Indicator: Average annual disposable income per capita in target region Definition: The average annual amount of disposable income per capita measured. Oblast SSSU 2017 GCA-D $950 (25,278 2018 GCA-D $1,245 (33,840 2019 GCA-D $1,516 (39,141 UAH) UAH) UAH) GCA-L $617 (16,416 GCA-L $782 (21,252 GCA-L $948 (24,477 UAH) UAH) UAH) 4. Indicator: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Definition: This index measures the average prices of common goods and services compared to prices during the same period one year prior. It includes a basket of goods and services commonly consumed by the population. Oblast SSSU 2017 GCA-D 105.5 2018 GCA-D 103.8 2019 GCA-D 101.3 GCA-L 104.5 GCA-L 102.8 GCA-L 100.8

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 25 Disaggregated Data Baseline (2018) 2019–2020 Study 2020–2021 Study By Source Date Value Date Value Date Value 5. Indicator: Economic Resilience Index (ERI) Definition: This index is a composite indicator that measures categories and variables related to regional, institutional, household, and business economic resilience on a biennial basis (baseline in 2018, 2020, and 2022). Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 indicates no resilience and 100 indicates perfect resilience. This indicator is populated only for GCA-D and GCA-L. Level of resilience Baseline/ Oct.– ERI Composite: October ERI Composite: (regional, annual Nov. GCA-D Low (39.4) 2020 GCA-D 35.8 institutional, household 2018 GCA-L Low (37.8) GCA-L 38.4 household, firm); and business Regional Sub-Index: Regional Sub-Index: oblast; sex survey and GCA-D Low (32.9) GCA-D 23.7 KIIs GCA-L Low (31.3) GCA-L 28.5 Institutional Sub-Index: Institutional Sub-Index: GCA-D Low (33.4) GCA-D 29.5 GCA-L Low (32.7) GCA-L 32.1 Not computed for this Household Sub-Index: N/A Household Sub-Index: study year GCA-D Medium (43.8) GCA-D 44.9 (Male: 46.4; (Male: 44.3; Female: 43.5) Female: 43.2) GCA-L Medium (43.2); GCA-L 44.9 (Male: 45.9; (Male: 43.7; Female: 43.3) Female: 44.1) Business Sub-Index: Business Sub-Index: GCA-D Medium (47.5) GCA-D 44.9 (Male: 42.2; (Male: 46.9; Female: 48.1) Female: 47.7) GCA-L Medium (44.1) GCA-L 48.3 (Male: 46.2; (Male: 45.8; Female: 42.1) Female: 50.4)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 26 Disaggregated Data Baseline (2018) 2019–2020 Study 2020–2021 Study By Source Date Value Date Value Date Value 6. Indicator: Unemployment rate within study population Definition: This indicator measures the number of survey respondents who report being unemployed but are currently looking for work divided by the total number of survey respondents considered part of the active labor force interviewed from a representative sample from eastern Ukraine (GCA-D, GCA-L, and SoA). Active labor force is defined here as the combined number of individuals who report currently working (either in the formal or informal sector) and those who are unemployed but report currently looking for work. Oblast; sex; Baseline/ Oct.–Nov. GCA-D Sept.– GCA-D Sept.– GCA-D age; annual 2018 • 17.5% (Male: 11.5%; Oct. • 14.8% (Male: 9.1%; Oct. • 16.2% (Male: 6.9%; vulnerability household Female: 6.0%) 2019 Female: 5.7%) 2020 Female: 9.3%) status survey • Age: (18–28: 2.0%; 29– • Age: (18–28: 3.0%; 29– • Age: (18–28: 2.3%; 29– 35: 2.8%; 36–59: 12.7%; 35: 1.7%; 36–59: 8.7%; 35: 4.2%; 36–59: 9.7%; 60+: 0.0%) 60+: 1.3%) 60+: 0.0%) • Vulnerability Status: • Vulnerability Status: • Vulnerability Status: (IDP: 0.4%; Returnee: (IDP: 0.9%; Returnee: (IDP: 0.8%; Returnee: 0.4%; PWD: 1.2%; ATO 0.4%; PWD: 0.0%; ATO 0.4%; PWD: 1.2%; ATO Veteran: 0.0%) Veteran: 0.4%) Veteran: 0.0%) GCA-L GCA-L GCA-L • 10.6% (Male: 5.1%; • 15.2% (Male: 6.6%; • 7.6% (Male: 3.6%; Female: 5.5%) Female: 8.6%) Female: 4.0%) • Age: (18–28: 2.1%; 29– • Age: (18–28: 1.6%; 29– • Age: (18–28: 2.2%; 29– 35: 1.3%; 36–59: 7.2%; 35: 2.9%; 36–59: 9.4%; 35: 0.0%; 36–59: 5.4%; 60+: 0.0%) 60+: 1.2%) 60+: 0.0%) • Vulnerability Status: • Vulnerability Status: • Vulnerability Status: (IDP: 0.0%; Returnee: (IDP: 0.4%; Returnee: (IDP: 0.4%; Returnee: 0.0%; PWD: 0.4%; ATO 0.4%; PWD: 0.4%; ATO 0.0%; PWD: 0.0%; ATO Veteran: 0.0%) Veteran: 0.0%) Veteran: 0.4%) SoA Not included in SoA SoA 2018 Baseline Study • 20.9% (Male: 11.3%; • 16.9% (Male: 9.5%; Female: 9.6%) Female: 7.5%) • Age: (18–28: 4.6%; 29– • Age: (18–28: 3.4%; 29– 35: 3.9%; 36–59: 12.1%; 35: 3.1%; 36–59: 10.2%; 60+: .4%) 60+: 0.3%) • Vulnerability Status: • Vulnerability Status: (IDP: 0.4%; Returnee: (IDP: 0.3%; Returnee: 1.1%; PWD: 1.8%; ATO 0.0%; PWD: 1.0%/ ATO Veteran: 0.7%) Veteran: 0.3%)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 27 Disaggregated Data Baseline (2018) 2019–2020 Study 2020–2021 Study By Source Date Value Date Value Date Value 7. Indicator: Access to Economic Opportunities Index—Individuals Definition: This composite indicator captures the level of satisfaction of individuals interviewed with access to services or factors that influence their ability to access economic opportunities. Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is not at all satisfied and 100 is perfectly satisfied. Oblast; sex Baseline/ Oct.– GCA-D 49.8 (Male: 49.6; Sept.– GCA-D 47.8 (Male: 47.7; Sept.– GCA-D 49.1 (Male: 46.2; annual Nov. Female: 50.5) Oct. Female: 48.0) Oct. Female: 53.4) household 2018 GCA-L 34.0; Male: 33.0; 2019 GCA-L 38.8 (Male: 39.3; 2020 GCA-L 44.2 (Male: 44.9; survey Female: 35.4 Female: 38.9) Female: 43.1) SoA Not included in SoA 44.0 (Male: 43.1; SoA 47.2 (Male: 45.4; 2018 Baseline Study Female: 45.5) Female: 49.0) 8. Indicator: Access to Economic Opportunities Index—Businesses Definition: This composite indicator captures the level of satisfaction of businesses surveyed with access to services and other factors that influence their ability to operate and grow. Oblast; sex of Baseline/ Oct.– GCA-D 50.9 (Male: 49.3; Sept.– GCA-D 45.5 (Male: 44.1; Sept.– GCA-D 49.5 (Male: 45.7; business annual Nov. Female: 52.4) Oct. Female: 47.2) Oct. Female: 53.5) respondent business 2018 GCA-L 45.1 (Male: 44.7; 2019 GCA-L 40.8 (Male: 38.5; 2020 GCA-L 50.7 (Male: 49.2; survey Female: 45.6) Female: 43.8) Female: 52.3) SoA Not included in SoA 46.1; (Male: 43.1; SoA 54.0 (Male: 49.3; 2018 Baseline Study Female: 49.5) Female: 58.6) 9. Indicator: Percentage of respondents who express confidence in the economic future of the target region (GCA-D, GCA-L, Sea of Azov Region) Definition: This indicator captures the total number of survey responses of “somewhat better” or “much better” divided by the total number of responses to the question, excluding “don’t know/refused to answer.” Oblast; individuals Baseline/ Oct.– • GCA-D Sept.– GCA-D Sept.– GCA-D vs. businesses; sex annual Nov. Individuals: 25.3% (Male: Oct. • Individuals: 23.5% (Male: Oct. • Individuals: 4.9% (Male: household 2018 13.3%; Female: 12.0% ) 2019 11.5%; Female: 12.0%) 2020 2.0%; Female: 2.9%) and business • Businesses: 41.9% (Male: • Businesses: 61.5% (Male: • Businesses: 35.5% (Male: survey 19.8%; Female: 22.1%) 36.5%; Female: 25.0%) 18.1%; Female: 17.4%) GCA -L GCA -L GCA-L • Individuals: 10.6% (Male: • Individuals: 27.9% (Male: • Individuals: 4.6% (Male: 5.9%; Female: 4.7%) 14.3%; Female: 13.7%) 2.2%; Female: 2.4%) • Businesses: 57.2% (Male: • Businesses: 47.5% (Male: • Businesses: 30.1% (Male: 31.1%; Female: 26.1%) 24.1%; Female: 23.5%) 14.7%; Female: 15.4%) SoA Not included in SoA SoA 2018 Baseline Study • Individuals: 36.3% (Male: • Individuals: 16.4% (Male: 14.5%; Female: 21.8%) 8.3%; Female: 8.1%) • Businesses: 55.2% (Male: • Businesses: 38.9% (Male: 27.8%; Female: 27.3%) 18.3%; Female: 20.6%)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 28 Disaggregated Data Baseline (2018) 2019–2020 Study 2020–2021 Study By Source Date Value Date Value Date Value 10. Indicator: Percentage of respondents who believe that new sectors will be the most important in providing economic opportunities in the next five years Definition: This indicator captures the total number of respondents who believe the economy in eastern Ukraine will be based on different sectors than current ones, divided by the total number of respondents from a representative sample of GCA-D and GCA-L Oblast; individuals Baseline/ Oct.– GCA-D vs. businesses; sex annual Nov. • Individuals: 7.6% (Male: household 2018 4.7%; Female: 2.9%) Indicator retired in 2019 and business • Businesses: 10.9% (Male: survey 3.6%; Female: 7.3%) GCA-L • Individuals: 3.0% (Male: 1.8%; Female: 1.2%) Indicator retired in 2019 • Businesses: 13.7% (Male: 7.8%; Female: 5.9%)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 29 ANNEX 2: CHARACTERISTICS OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS

Household Survey In GCA-D, 600 individuals were interviewed for the household survey, evenly divided between men and women. Almost half are aged 36–59, and almost 35.0 percent are 60 years of age or older. Among respondents, 47.0 percent live in rural areas, 22.0 percent in peri-urban areas, and 31.0 percent in rural areas. In GCA-L, 600 individuals were interviewed for the household survey, almost evenly divided between males (50.2 percent) and females (49.8 percent). About 40.0 percent are aged 36 and 59, and 40.0 percent are 60 years of age or older. Forty-two percent live in rural areas, twenty- eight percent in peri-urban areas, and thirty percent in rural areas. In the Sea of Azov region, 601 individuals were interviewed for the household survey; 48.9 percent are male, and 51.1 percent are female. Forty percent are aged 36-59, and about thirty- five percent are 60 years of age or older. Of those respondents, 42.0 percent live in rural areas, 27.0 percent in peri-urban areas, and 31.0 percent in rural areas. In the Sea of Azov three urban poles, 100 individuals in Melitopol, 100 in Berdiansk, and 181 in Mariupol were interviewed, with fairly even representation by males and females in each.

Business Survey In GCA-D, 200 businesses were interviewed for the study; 88.0 percent are located in urban areas, 3.0 percent in peri-urban areas, and 9.0 percent in rural areas. Almost 65.0 percent represent micro-sized enterprises with 10 or fewer employees; 54.0 percent have been operating less than 10 years; 24.6 percent have been operating over 20 years. About one-third are in the services sector, mostly home maintenance and repair service providers; other common sectors are agriculture, education, construction, and heavy industry. In GCA-L, 202 businesses were interviewed for the study; 70.0 percent are located in urban areas, 16.0 percent peri-urban areas, and 14.0 percent in rural areas. Slightly over 65.0 percent are micro-sized with 10 or fewer employees. Almost 40.0 percent have been operating over 20 years, and almost 40.0 percent have been operating less than 10 years. Of those businesses, 21.0 percent are in the services sector, also heavily linked to home and apartment building repair and maintenance; other common sectors are agriculture, education, construction, and activities related to civic or non-profit services. In the Sea of Azov region, 252 businesses were interviewed for the study; 85.0 percent are located in urban areas, 4.0 percent peri-urban areas, and 11.0 percent in rural areas. Over three-fifths (61.9 percent) represent micro-sized enterprises with 10 or fewer employees, and about half (48.4 percent) have been operating less than 10 years. Over one-quarter (27.4 percent) are in the services sector, mostly legal, accounting, and consulting services; other common sectors are education, agriculture, trade, and activities related to recreation and amusement.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 30 ANNEX 3: SSSU CONTEXT INDICATOR COMPUTATIONS

Unemployment Rate Annual Unemployment Rates for Working Age19 GCA-D GCA-L Ukraine Base- 2019– 2020– Base- 2019– 2020– Base- 2019– 2020– line 2020 2021 line 2020 2021 line 2020 2021 (2018) Study Study (2018) Study Study (2018) Study Study Value Value20 Value Value Value21 Value Value Value22 Value Unemploym ent Rate (Males aged 14.5% 14.4% 15.0% 15.9% 16.0% 16.0% 9.0% 9.1% 9.6% 15–60; females aged 15–57)

Gross Regional Product per Capita Annual Gross Regional Product per Capita in USD23 Baseline (2018) Values GRP Ukrainian USD 2016 GRP per Capita Hryvnas (UAH) Conversion24 Population25 (USD) GCA-D 137.50 billion $5.34 billion 4.25 million $1,256.75 GCA-L 31.36 billion $1.22 billion 2.20 million $554.83 Kyiv City (for comparison) 559.14 billion $21.72 billion 2.91 million $7,423.55 Ukraine 2.39 trillion $92.66 billion 42.67 million $2,175.90

19 SSSU. Baseline (2018) Values: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2018/rp/rp_reg/reg_e/rbn_2018_e.htm. Collected January–September 2018, published in September 2018. 2019–2020 Study Values: https://ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2018/rp/rp_reg/reg_e/rbn_2018_e.htm. Collected January-December 2018, updated in March 2019. 2020–2021 Study Values: https://ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2009/rp/rp_reg/reg_e/arh_rbn_e.htm. Collected January- June 2020, published in September 2020. 20 Official unemployment rates presented in the Baseline (2018) study included 2018 unemployment rates through September 2018. Since no unemployment data has been posted yet for 2019, official unemployment rates presented for the 2019–2020 Study are updated through the end of 2018 to include three additional months. 2019–2020 Study values are, therefore, inclusive of values presented at baseline. 21 See Note 2. 22 See Note 2. 23 SSSU. Baseline (2018) Values: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2008/vvp/vrp/vrp2017_e.xls. Collected and published in 2016. 2019–2020 Study Values: https://ukrstat.org/en/Noviny/new2019/new2019_e/new_e_07.html. Collected in 2017, published in July 2019. 2020–2021 Study Values: https://ukrstat.org/en/Noviny/new2020/new2020_e/new_e_03.html. Excludes temporarily occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and the city of Sevastopol. 24 UAH to USD conversion based on historical annual exchange rates for 2016 from https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-uah-historical-data. 25 SSSU. https://ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2016/ds/kn/kn_e/kn0816_e.html. Population data as of September 1, 2016, calculated through administrative data on official birth and death records, and changes in residence.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 31 2019–2020 Study Values USD 2017 GRP per Capita UAH Conversion26 Population27 (USD) GCA-D 166.40 billion $6.26 billion 4.20 million $1,489.23 GCA-L 30.29 billion $1.14 billion 2.17 million $525.17 Kyiv City (for comparison) 699.20 billion $26.28 billion 2.93 million $8,956.75 Ukraine 2.98 trillion $112.17 billion 42.39 million $2,646.37 2020–2021 Study Values USD 2018 GRP per Capita UAH Conversion28 Population29 (USD) GCA-D 192.26 billion $7.07 billion 4.17 million $1,697.28 GCA-L 35.21 billion $1.29 billion 2.15 million $601.72 Kyiv City (for comparison) 833.10 billion $30.64 billion 2.95 million $10,382.96 Ukraine 3.56 trillion $130.92 billion 42.15 million $3,106.53

Disposable Income per Capita Annual Disposable Income per Capita in USD Baseline (2018) Values 2019–2020 Study Values 2020–2021 Study Values Disposable Disposable Disposable Income per USD Income per USD Income per USD Capita30 Conversion31 Capita32 Conversion33 Capita Conversion35 34 (UAH) (UAH) (UAH) GCA-D 25,278 $950 33,840 $1,245 39,141 $1,516 GCA-L 16,416 $617 21,252 $782 24,477 $948 Ukraine 47,270 $1,777 58,442 $2,149 67,528 $2,616

26 UAH to USD conversion based on historical annual exchange rates for 2017 from https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-uah-historical-data. 27 SSSU. https://ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2017/ds/kn/kn_e/kn1217_e.html. Population data as of January 1, 2018, calculated through administrative data on official birth and death records, and changes in residence. Data has been updated to reflect the most recent information available. 28 UAH to USD conversion based on historical annual exchange rates for 2018 from https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-uah-historical-data. 29 SSSU. https://ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2018/ds/kn/kn_e/kn1218_e.html. Population data as of January 1, 2019. Calculated through administrative data on official birth and death records, and changes in residence. 30 SSSU. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2008/gdn/dvn_ric/dvn_ric_u/dn_reg2013_u.html. Disposable income per capita data collected in 2017. 31 See Note 8. 32 SSSU: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2008/gdn/dvn_ric/dvn_ric_u/dn_reg2013_u.html. Data has been updated to reflect the most recent information available, published June 26, 2020. 33 See Note 10. 34 SSSU. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2008/gdn/dvn_ric/dvn_ric_u/dn_reg2013_u.html. Data is preliminary, published June 26, 2020. 35 UAH to USD conversion based on historical annual exchange rates for 2019 from: https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-uah-historical-data

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 32 Annual Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index By Month with Annual Average36 Baseline (2018) Values: Monthly CPI Avg. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2018 GCA-D 101.6 102.4 103.4 104.4 104.6 104.4 104.1 104.1 105.8 108.5 110.6 112.3 105.5 GCA-L 101.3 101.8 102.6 104.1 104.0 103.7 103.5 103.4 105.0 106.8 108.3 109.3 104.5 Ukraine 101.5 102.4 103.5 104.4 104.4 104.4 103.6 103.6 105.6 107.4 108.9 109.8 104.9 2019–2020 Study Values: Monthly CPI Avg.

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2019 GCA-D 101.3 101.9 102.6 103.6 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.5 105.1 105.9 106.0 106.0 104.2 GCA-L 100.9 101.5 101.9 102.9 104.0 103.2 103.0 102.9 103.3 104.3 104.4 104.3 103.1 Ukraine 101.0 101.5 102.4 103.4 104.2 103.6 103.0 102.7 103.4 104.2 104.3 104.1 103.2 2020–2021 Study Values: Monthly CPI Avg. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2020 GCA-D 100.1 100.0 100.1 101.5 101.4 102.0 101.6 101.6 101.7 102.7 TBD TBD 101.3 GCA-L 99.8 99.4 100.0 100.8 101.3 101.3 100.9 100.7 101.2 102.5 TBD TBD 100.8 Ukraine 100.2 99.9 100.7 101.5 101.8 102.0 101.4 101.2 101.7 102.7 TBD TBD 101.3

36 SSSU. Baseline (2018) Values: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2018/ct/iscR/iscR_e/iscR2018gr_e.htm. CPI data retrieved January 2019. 2019–2020 Study Values: https://ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2019/ct/iscR/iscR_e/iscR2019gr_e.htm. CPI data retrieved November 2019. Data has been updated to reflect the most recent information available, published January 15, 2020. 2020–2021 Study Values: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2006/ct/cn_rik/isc/isc_e/arh_iscR_gr_e.htm. CPI data retrieved November 2020. CPI data collected monthly and published the following month. Excludes temporarily occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, as well as the city of Sevastopol.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 33 ANNEX 4: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE INDEX COMPUTATIONS The Economic Resilience Index (ERI) is a customized index that measures the absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities of GCA-D and GCA-L through key variables at regional, institutional, household, and business levels. The ERI comprises four sub-indices that each provide insight into resilience areas that need strengthening. Each sub-index is populated either through key informant interviews or through responses to select questions in the household and business surveys. Each of the four sub-index composite scores is based on a 100-point scale, which are then averaged to generate the ERI composite score. In aggregate, the overall index demonstrates each oblast’s level of economic resilience and provides a point for comparison over the course of the five-year study period.

Regional Sub-Index The ERI Regional Sub-Index measures resilience of the regional economy. It comprises 14 variables that are populated through key informant interviews with regional government officials, the private sector, and civil society actors including non-governmental organizations, international donors, policy think tanks, universities, and economic journalists.37 ERI Regional Sub-Index: GCA Donetsk GCA-D 2018 GCA-D 2020 Sub-Index Variable 32.9 23.7 Economic Diversification Sector Diversity 3.6 1.8 Diversity of Government Investment 2.2 1.3 Diversity of Private Investment 2.3 2.0 Diversity of Jobs 4.4 2.8 Diversity of Skills within Workforce 3.1 3.3 Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprise Enabling Environment Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprise Growth 4.8 3.5 Innovation 1.9 1.8 New Business / Entrepreneurship 2.7 3.3 Availability of Social Safety Nets / Assistance for Businesses and Households National Government’s Ability to Monitor Economic Shocks, Stresses 2.9 1.8 National Government’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 3.6 1.8* Regional Government’s Ability to Monitor Economic Shocks, Stresses 4.3 2.9 Regional Government’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 3.5 2.5* Local Government’s Ability to Monitor Economic Shocks, Stresses 3.2 2.1 Local Government’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 3.5 2.5* *Response rate of less than 25.0 percent.

ERI Regional Sub-Index: GCA Luhansk GCA-L 2018 GCA-L 2020 Sub-Index Variable 31.3 28.5

37 The Institutional Sub-Index is not disaggregated by respondents’ sex.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 34 GCA-L 2018 GCA-L 2020 Sub-Index Variable 31.3 28.5 Economic Diversification Sector Diversity 2.2 4.1 Diversity of Government Investment 2.2 1.7 Diversity of Private Investment 2.8 2.5 Diversity of Jobs 4.5 2.9 Diversity of Skills within Workforce 2.8 4.0 Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprise Enabling Environment Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprise Growth 3.6 3.9 Innovation 2.3 1.6 New Business / Entrepreneurship 3.4 4.1 Availability of Social Safety Nets / Assistance for Businesses and Households National Government’s Ability to Monitor Economic Shocks, Stresses 3.0 1.7 National Government’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 2.2 4.1* Regional Government’s Ability to Monitor Economic Shocks, Stresses 4.0 2.0 Regional Government’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 4.2 2.5* Local Government’s Ability to Monitor Economic Shocks, Stresses 2.5 2.5 Local Government’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 4.2 2.5* *Response rate of less than 25.0 percent.

Institutional Sub-Index The ERI Institutional Sub-Index measures the capacity of financial institutions and local, regional, and national government staff to monitor, analyze, and respond to economic shocks caused by crisis. It comprises 14 variables that are populated through key informant feedback from regional government officials, the private sector, civil society, and humanitarian organizations.38 ERI Institutional Sub-Index: GCA Donetsk GCA-D 2018 GCA-D 2020 Sub-Index Variable 33.4 29.5 Financial Institutions Ability to Cope with Economic Shocks, Stresses 5.0 3.1 National, Regional, and Local Governments National Government Staff’s Ability to Monitor, Analyze Effects of 2.5 2.1 Economic Shocks, Stresses National Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, 3.0 3.8* Stresses National Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Needs of Vulnerable 2.1 2.5* Populations Regional Government Staff’s Ability to Monitor, Analyze Effects of 3.2 1.4 Economic Shocks, Stresses Regional Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, 3.5 3.8* Stresses Regional Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Needs of Vulnerable 2.1 2.5*

38 The Institutional Sub-Index is not disaggregated by respondents’ sex.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 35 GCA-D 2018 GCA-D 2020 Sub-Index Variable 33.4 29.5 Populations Local Government Staff’s Ability to Monitor, Analyze Effects of Economic 1.7 1.4 Shocks, Stresses Local Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 2.5 3.8* Local Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Needs of Vulnerable 3.2 2.5* Populations Effectiveness of Government of Ukraine Coordination with Other Resilience Actors Government to Government (Intra-Ministerial and Departmental Levels) 2.9 2.2 Government and Private Sector 3.8 3.5 Government and Civil Society 5.0 2.8 Government of Ukraine and International Donors 6.3 5.9 *Response rate of less than 25.0 percent.

ERI Institutional Sub-Index: GCA Luhansk GCA-L 2018 GCA-L 2020 Sub-Index Variable 32.7 32.1 Financial Institutions Ability to Cope with Economic Shocks, Stresses 5.8 5.8 National, Regional, and Local Governments National Government Staff’s Ability to Monitor, Analyze Effects of 2.5 2.5 Economic Shocks, Stresses National Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, 1.7 3.3* Stresses National Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Needs of Vulnerable 3.0 2.5* Populations Regional Government Staff’s Ability to Monitor, Analyze Effects of 2.5 1.7 Economic Shocks, Stresses Regional Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, 2.5 3.3* Stresses Regional Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Needs of Vulnerable 3.5 2.5* Populations Local Government Staff’s Ability to Monitor, Analyze Effects of Economic 1.3 1.7 Shocks, Stresses Local Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Economic Shocks, Stresses 2.5 3.3* Local Government Staff’s Ability to Respond to Needs of Vulnerable 3.5 2.5* Populations Effectiveness of Government of Ukraine Coordination with other Resilience Actors Government to Government (Intra-Ministerial and Departmental Levels) 3.0 2.5 Government and Private Sector 2.9 3.5 Government and Civil Society 5.3 3.5 Government of Ukraine and International Donors 5.8 6.3* *Response rate of less than 25.0 percent.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 36 Household Sub-Index39 The ERI Household Sub-Index measures the resilience of households in eastern Ukraine based on responses to select questions in the household survey. It is comprised of nine variables that can contribute to or influence a household’s level of resilience in the eastern Ukraine context. ERI Household Sub-Index: GCA Donetsk GCA-D 2018 GCA-D 2020 Oblast Oblast Sub-Index Variable Male Female Male Female Score Score 43.5 44.2 42.4 44.9 46.4 43.2 Employment Status and Household Livelihood Diversification Employment Status 2.8 3.3 2.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 Number of Household Livelihood 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 Sources Education and Skills Education Level 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.7 Current Skills Level 9.4 9.4 9.3 8.8 8.9 8.6 Access to Skills Improvement Services 0.8 0.7 0.9 3.4 3.5 3.2 Financial Resources Current Savings 4.3 3.8 4.4 3.5 3.9 3.0 Ability to Borrow Money 1.5 1.9 1.2 2.4 2.7 2.1 Humanitarian Assistance and Other Coping Strategies Use of Assistance as Livelihood Source 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 Use of Financial Coping Strategies 8.7 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.6 8.0

ERI Household Sub-Index: GCA Luhansk GCA-L 2018 GCA-L 2020 Oblast Oblast Sub-Index Variable Male Female Male Female Score Score 42.9 43.2 42.8 44.9 45.9 44.1 Employment Status and Household Livelihood Diversification Employment Status 3.4 3.9 3.0 3.4 4.1 2.6 Number of Household Livelihood 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 Sources Education and Skills Education Level 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 Current Skills Level 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.4 Access to Skills Improvement Services 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 Financial Resources Current Savings 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.6 Ability to Borrow Money 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.6 3.1 2.1 Humanitarian Assistance and Other Coping Strategies

39 2018 ERI composite scores and household sub-index scores were adjusted slightly in 2020 to calibrate scoring with changes in survey response options made to the 2020 surveys.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 37 GCA-L 2018 GCA-L 2020 Oblast Oblast Sub-Index Variable Male Female Male Female Score Score 42.9 43.2 42.8 44.9 45.9 44.1 Use of Assistance as Livelihood Source 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 Use of Financial Coping Strategies 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.1

Business Sub-Index The ERI Business Sub-Index measures the resilience of businesses in eastern Ukraine based on responses to select questions in the business survey. It is comprised of nine variables that can contribute to or influence a business’s level of resilience in the eastern Ukraine context. ERI Business Sub-Index: GCA Donetsk GCA-D 2018 GCA-D 2020 Oblast Oblast Sub-Index Variable Male Female Male Female Score Score 47.6 47.0 48.1 44.9 42.2 47.7 Human Capital Owner/Manager Education Level 9.3 9.3 9.4 8.3 8.1 8.6 Access to Skilled Labor 4.1 3.6 4.7 4.5 3.6 5.3 Access to Owner/Manager Skills 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.1 4.5 5.7 Improvement Services Access to and Diversification of Financial Resources Current Assets 3.1 3.8 2.4 3.4 3.6 3.2 Number of Financing Sources 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 Ability to Access Business Capital 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.3 Market Diversification Overall Market Diversification 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.6 2.2 0.9 Market Diversification away from Russia 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Barriers to New Market Entry 6.7 6.1 7.2 5.9 5.2 6.7

ERI Business Sub-Index: GCA Luhansk GCA-L 2018 GCA-L 2020 Oblast Oblast Sub-Index Variable Male Female Male Female Score Score 44.1 45.8 42.1 48.3 46.2 50.4 Human Capital Owner/Manager Education Level 9.0 9.4 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.6 Access to Skilled Labor 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.2 5.3 Access to Owner/Manager Skills 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.1 5.5 6.5 Improvement Services Access to and Diversification of Financial Resources Current Assets 2.7 3.3 2.0 3.5 3.8 3.2 Number of Financing Sources 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 38 GCA-L 2018 GCA-L 2020 Oblast Oblast Sub-Index Variable Male Female Male Female Score Score 44.1 45.8 42.1 48.3 46.2 50.4 Ability to Access Business Capital 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.8 Market Diversification Overall Market Diversification 2.1 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.6 Market Diversification away from Russia 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.4 Barriers to New Market Entry 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.8 5.5 8.3

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 39 ANNEX 5: DATA COLLECTION LOCATIONS

Household Survey Data Collection Sites

Oblast / Region Settlement Name / Rural Rayon (District) GCA-D Kramatorsk GCA-D (also Sea Mariupol of Azov) GCA-D Sloviansk GCA-D Druzhkivka GCA-D Bakhmut GCA-D Kostiantynivka GCA-D Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) GCA-D Lyman GCA-D Selydove GCA-D Hirnyk / Selydove (City Council) GCA-D Bilenke / Kramatorsk (City Council) GCA-D Yasnohirka / Kramatorsk (City Council) GCA-D (also Sea Sartana / Mariupol (City Council) of Azov) GCA-D Andriivka / Slovianskyi GCA-D Bylbasivka / Slovianskyi GCA-D Hostre / Selydove (City Council) GCA-D Tsukuryne / Selydove (City Council) GCA-D Velyka Novosilka GCA-D Volodymyrivka / Volnovaskyi GCA-D Novodonetske / Dobropillia (City Council) GCA-D (also Sea Yalta / Manhushskyi of Azov) GCA-D Nikolske (Volodarske) GCA-D Rural Rayon Velykonovosilkivskyi GCA-D Rural Rayon Volnovaskyi GCA-D Rural Rayon Nikolskyi (Volodarskyi) GCA-D Rural Rayon Pokrovskyi (Krasnoarmiiskyi) GCA-D Rural Rayon Manhushskyi GCA-D Rural Rayon Slovianskyi GCA-L Sievierodonetsk GCA-L Lysychansk GCA-L Rubizhne GCA-L Kreminna GCA-L Svatove GCA-L Starobilsk GCA-L Pryvillia GCA-L Maloriazantseve / Popasnianskyi

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 40 Oblast / Region Settlement Name / Rural Rayon (District) GCA-L Krasnorichenske / Kreminskyi GCA-L Nyzhnia Duvanka / Svativskyi GCA-L Bilovodsk GCA-L Bilokurakyne GCA-L Milove GCA-L Novoaidar GCA-L Novopskov GCA-L Bilohorivka / Popasnianskyi GCA-L Vrubivka / Popasnianskyi GCA-L Komyshuvakha / Popasnianskyi GCA-L Toshkivka / Popasnianskyi / Pervomaisk (City Council) GCA-L Rural Rayon Bilovodskyi Bilovodskyi GCA-L Rural Rayon Kreminskyi GCA-L Rural Rayon Bilokurakynskyi GCA-L Rural Rayon Novoaidarskyi GCA-L Rural Rayon Popasnianskyi GCA-L Rural Rayon Svativskyi Sea of Azov (also Mariupol GCA-D) Sea of Azov (also Sartana /Mariupol (City Council) GCA-D) Sea of Azov Staryi Krym / Mariupol (City Council) Sea of Azov Talakivka / Mariupol (City Council) Sea of Azov Manhush Sea of Azov (also Yalta / Manhushskyi GCA-D) Sea of Azov Berdiansk Sea of Azov Melitopol Sea of Azov Prymorsk Sea of Azov Andriivka / Berdianskyi Sea of Azov Myrne / Melitopolskyi Sea of Azov Pryazovske Sea of Azov Novovasylivka / Pryazovskyi Sea of Azov Rural Rayon Berdiansk (City Council) Sea of Azov Rural Rayon Berdianskyi Sea of Azov Rural Rayon Melitopolskyi Sea of Azov Rural Rayon Pryazovskyi Sea of Azov Rural Rayon Prymorskyi Sea of Azov Henichesk Sea of Azov Novooleksiivka / Henicheskyi Sea of Azov Rykove (Partyzany) / Henicheskyi Sea of Azov Rural Rayon Henicheskyi

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 41 Business Survey Data Collection Sites Oblast / Region Settlement Name GCA-D Andriivka / Velykonovosilkivskyi district GCA-D Avdiivka GCA-D Bakhmut GCA-D Bilozerske GCA-D Bohorodychne / Slovianskyi district GCA-D Chasiv Yar GCA-D Demianivka / Manhushskyi district GCA-D Dobropillia GCA-D Drobysheve / Lyman GCA-D Druzhkivka GCA-D Hirnyk GCA-D Hrodivka / Pokrovskyi district GCA-D Ivanivka / Pokrovskyi district GCA-D Kalynivka / Bakhmutskyi district GCA-D Kalynivka / Volnovaskyi district GCA-D Kamianka / Volnovaskyi district GCA-D Komar / Velykonovosilkivskyi district GCA-D Kostiantynivka GCA-D Kramatorsk GCA-D Kurakhove GCA-D Lyman GCA-D Marinka GCA-D Mariupol GCA-D Mykolaivka / Volnovaskyi district GCA-D Myrnohrad GCA-D Neskuchne / Velykonovosilkivskyi district GCA-D Nikolske / Nikolskyi district GCA-D Novohrodivka GCA-D Olhynka / Volnovaskyi district GCA-D Opytne / Bakhmutskyi district GCA-D Pokrovsk GCA-D Pryvillia / Slovianskyi district GCA-D Rodynske GCA-D Rozdolivka / Bakhmutskyi district GCA-D Sartana / Mariupol GCA-D Selydove GCA-D Shakhtarske / Velykonovosilkivskyi district GCA-D Siversk GCA-D Sloviansk GCA-D Sontsivka / Pokrovskyi district GCA-D Sviatohirsk

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 42 Oblast / Region Settlement Name GCA-D Svitlodarsk GCA-D Toretsk GCA-D Ukrainsk GCA-D Volnovakha GCA-D Volodymyrivka / Bakhmutskyi district GCA-D Vuhledar GCA-D Zoria / Nikolskyi district GCA-L Bilokurakyne / Bilokurakynskyi district GCA-L Bilovodsk / Bilovodskyi district GCA-L Borivske / Sievierodonetsk GCA-L Borovenky / Kreminskyi district GCA-L Chepyhivka / Svativskyi district GCA-L Chervonopopivka / Kreminskyi district GCA-L Hirske GCA-L Horodyshche / Bilovodskyi district GCA-L Kolomyichykha / Svativskyi district GCA-L Komyshuvakha / Popasnianskyi district GCA-L Krasna Talivka / Stanychno-Luhanskyi district GCA-L Krasnorichenske / Kreminskyi district GCA-L Kreminna GCA-L Kryzke / Markivskyi district GCA-L Kuriachivka / Starobilskyi district GCA-L Lysychansk GCA-L Lytvynivka / Bilovodskyi district GCA-L Malooleksandrivka / Troitskyi district GCA-L Markivka / Markivskyi district GCA-L Milove / Milovskyi district GCA-L Novoaidar / Novoaidarskyi district GCA-L Novoderkul / Bilovodskyi district GCA-L Novooleksandrivka / Bilovodskyi district GCA-L Novopskov / Novopskovskyi district GCA-L Novotoshkivske / Popasnianskyi district GCA-L Novovodiane / Kreminskyi district GCA-L Oleksiivka / Novoaidarskyi district GCA-L Plotyna / Stanychno-Luhanskyi district GCA-L Pluhatar / Bilovodskyi district GCA-L Popasna GCA-L Rubizhne GCA-L Shchastia GCA-L Shtormove / Novoaidarskyi district GCA-L Shulhynka / Starobilskyi district GCA-L Shyrokyi / Stanychno-Luhanskyi district

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 43 Oblast / Region Settlement Name GCA-L Sievierodonetsk GCA-L Stanytsia Luhanska / Stanychno-Luhanskyi district GCA-L Starobilsk GCA-L Svatove GCA-L Troitske / Troitskyi district GCA-L Tsarivka / Troitskyi district GCA-L Tymoshyne / Bilokurakynskyi district GCA-L Vesele / Markivskyi district GCA-L Vilkhove / Stanychno-Luhanskyi district GCA-L Voievodivka / Sievierodonetsk GCA-L Zelekivka / Bilovodskyi district Sea of Azov Andriivka / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Azovske / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Berdiansk Sea of Azov Botiieve / Pryazovskyi district Sea of Azov Dmytrivka / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Dolynske / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Dunaivka / Pryazovskyi district Sea of Azov Melitopol Sea of Azov Myrne / Melitopolskyi district Sea of Azov Novhorodkivka / Melitopolskyi district Sea of Azov Novopetrivka / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Novotroitske / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Novovasylivka / Berdiansk Sea of Azov Novovasylivka / Pryazovskyi district Sea of Azov Oleksandrivka / Pryazovskyi district Sea of Azov Osypenko / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Preslav / Prymorskyi district Sea of Azov Pryazovske / Pryazovskyi district Sea of Azov Prymorsk Sea of Azov Rozivka / Pryazovskyi district Sea of Azov Semenivka / Melitopolskyi district Sea of Azov Shevchenkove / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Spaske / Melitopolskyi district Sea of Azov Stepanivka Persha / Pryazovskyi district Sea of Azov Troiany / Berdianskyi district Sea of Azov Voznesenka / Melitopolskyi district Sea of Azov Zelenivka / Prymorskyi district Sea of Azov Henichesk Sea of Azov Novooleksiivka / Henicheskyi district Sea of Azov Shchaslyvtseve / Henicheskyi district Sea of Azov Strilkove / Henicheskyi district

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 44 List of Key Informant Sources Representatives from the organizations and institutions listed below were interviewed as key informants for the Economic Resilience Index.

Key Informants Donetsk Regional Chamber of Commerce and Industry Business Support Center, Luhansk Regional Agency for Community and Regional Development Credit Union Impuls Plus Credit Union Milove Credit Danish Refugee Council, Livelihoods Programme Better Regulatory Delivery Office Institute of Economic Research and Political Consultations, Center for Contemporary Society Studies National Institute for Strategic Studies SME Development Office, Donor Coordination Zerkalo Tyzhnya newspaper, economic journalist Donetsk State University of Management, Public Administration and Management Department Donetsk State Oblast Administration Investment-Innovation and External Relations Department Division of Industry, Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving/Development of Basic Industries Department Division of Entrepreneurship Development, Administrative Services and Market Environment Department of Statistics Luhansk State Oblast Administration Division of Consolidated Analysis, Forecasting and Foreign Economic Activity, Department of Economic Development, Foreign Economic Activity and Tourism Department of International Technical Assistance, Innovative Development and Foreign Relations

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 45 ANNEX 6: STUDY INSTRUMENTS

Household Survey Questionnaire

KIEV INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF SOCIOLOGY

ERA ANALYTICAL SERVICES ______YEAR 2 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

DEAR INTERVIEWER! GREET RESPONDENT. DO NOT EMPHASIZE THE LANGUAGE OF THE GREETING IN ORDER TO FIND OUT WHICH LANGUAGE IS PREFERABLE FOR RESPONDENT: [EXAMPLE OF PRONUNCIATION:] Добрий д[е]нь (в[е]ч[е]р)

IF RESPONDENT REPLIES:

... in Ukrainian, ASK: ...in Russian‚ ASK: Is it easier for you to talk in Ukrainian, or Is it easier for you to talk in Russian, or [CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN:] maybe it is easier for [CONTINUES IN UKRAINIAN:] maybe it is you to talk in Russian? easier for you to talk in Ukrainian?

In Ukrainian....…1  TAKE THE UKRAINIAN VERSION, CHECK THE RESPONSE AND CONTINUE IN UKRAINIAN In Russian...... …2  CHECK THE RESPONSE AND CONTINUE IN RUSSIAN

[in Ukrainian] it does not matter [in Russian] it does not matter ↓ ↓ [In Ukrainian] Which language, Ukrainian or [In Russian] Which language, Russian or Russian, do you use more often? Ukrainian, do you use more often?

Ukrainian ...... ………….……………3 TAKE THE UKRAINIAN VERSION, CHECK THE [in Ukrainian] Difficult to say, probably both..4  RESPONSE THERE, AND CONTINUE IN UKRAINIAN Russian...... ………………………5 [in Russian] Difficult to say, probably both....6  CHECK THE RESPONSE AND CONTINUE IN RUSSIAN

SECTION I. INTRODUCTION. MAKE SURE THE RESPONDENT IS 18 YEARS OR OLDER.

Hello, my name is ______. I am a survey enumerator, and I am working with the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology to administer an annual study of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Sea of Azov region.

PURPOSE OF SURVEY: You have been randomly selected to respond to this survey. Your responses will be used to represent the viewpoints and experiences of people living in your community. Your responses will assist to better understand factors related to economic growth and economic opportunities in this region. Your participation today will help us to identify any changes on the population in this region over the next five years.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 46 CONSENT TO BE INTERVIEWED: I ask, with your consent, for your time in responding to a short survey concerning the economic status of your household and your candid opinions concerning the future economic prospects for yourself, your household, and the region overall. We estimate that the survey will take no longer than 30 minutes.

We will keep confidential all information that identifies you. We will securely store and transmit any information that identifies you. We will not share your personal information with people outside the research team. We may share the other information that you provide, that does not directly identify you, with the study funder and others working with the funder on similar studies. Do I have your consent?

[IF “NO”, STOP INTERVIEW AND FOLLOW PROTOCOL TO PROCEED WITH NEXT INTERVIEW]

DATE AND START TIME OF INTERVIEW: [To be automatically captured by smart device] GPS COORDINATES: [To be automatically captured by smart device] OBLAST: Donetska…1 Luhanska…2 Zaporizka…3 Khersonska…4 SETTLEMENT CODE: ______VOTING PRECINCT CODE: ______INTERVIEW WITHIN SSU ID: ______

SECTION II. Background of Respondent. Demographic Information

Thank you for taking time to speak with me. First, I would like to ask a few questions about you personally.

1. MARK RESPONDENT’S SEX (ASK IF NECESSARY):

Male…1 Female…2

2. How old are you? ______ question 3 DS/RF…777

2а. Can you at least tell me what age range you are in? SHOWCARD 2a 18 – 28 years 1 29 – 35 years 2 36 – 59 years 3 60 – 65 years 4 66 years and older 5 DN/RF 7  END OF INTERVIEW

3. How would you describe the community in which you live? SHOWCARD 3 Large City (more than 100,000 people) 1 Medium City (20,000-100,000 people) 2 Small town or urban settlement (up to 20,000 3 people) Village 4 DS/RF…7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 47 4. What is the highest level of education you have completed? SHOWCARD 5 Primary or base secondary general 1 Incompleted higher (junior specialist degree) 4 Completed secondary general 2 Base higher (bachelor degree) 5 Vocational (VET school, PTU, lyceum) 3 Higher (master degree) 6 DS/RF 7

5. What is your marital status? SHOWCARD 6 Married 1 Widowed 5 Unmarried but living together 2 Never been married 6 Divorced 3 Separated 4 DS/RF 7

6. Are you the head of this household? Yes, me only 1  question 8 Yes, both me and someone else 2  question 8 No 3 DS/RF 7

7a. Is the head of this household male or female? Male 1 Female 2 Both 3 DS/RF…7

7. How many people including adults and children, including yourself live in this household?

______people DS/RF…77

8a. Are any additional immediate family members currently living in a different location due to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine? Yes 1 No 2  question 9 DS/RF 7  question 9

8b. How many? ______people DS/RF…77

8. Do any of the following statuses apply to you? SHOWCARD 9. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Internally displaced person 1 Returnee 2 Person with disabilities 3 ATO Veteran 4 None  question 10 5 DS/RF…6

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 48 9.1. IF QUESTION 9 = 1 (INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSON)

9.1a. You told that you are an Internally displaced person. Where did you live immediately prior to the conflict that began in 2014? [PUT THE NAME OF THE SETTLEMENT] ______DS/RF…77

9.1b. When did you leave (SETTLEMENT)? [YEAR] 20____ DS/RF…77

9.1e. Do you plan to remain in the current living settlement for the next 12 months? Yes 1 No 2 DS/RF…7 9.2. IF QUESTION 9 = 2 (RETURNEE)

9.2a. You said that you are a Returnee. When did you originally leave your current home? [YEAR] 20____ DS/RF…77

9.2b. And when did you return? [YEAR] 20____ DS/RF…77

9.2e. Why did you return? SHOWCARD 9.2е. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Protect property (home or assets) 1 Safety situation improved 5 Job Opportunities 2 Return to Family 3 Other: [open] 6 Studying / Education 4 DS/RF 7

9.3. IF QUESTION 9 = 3 (DISABLED)

9.3a. You said that you are a Person with disabilities. In what way does this disability limit your ability to work? SHOWCARD 9.3а. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Not able to work at all 1 Can only do certain types of jobs 3 Can only work limited hours 2 No work limitations 4 DS/RF 5

9.4. IF QUESTION 10 = 4 (ATO VETERAN)

9.4a. You said that you are an ATO veteran. In what way has this affected your ability to find or keep employment? Has affected (SPECIFY IN WHAT WAY): ______1 Has not affected 2 DS/RF…7

SECTION III. Employment Status and Economic Opportunity

Now, I’d like to discuss your employment status and the economic opportunities you have.

10. What is your current employment status? SHOWCARD 10

Employed (formally or informally) 1 Unemployed but actively looking for a job 2  question 25 Unemployed but not looking for work currently 3  question 35.0

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 49 DS/RF 7 FOR EMPLOYED:

11. Let’s talk about your job. If you have more than one job, please think of the one you consider your primary job. Are you employed in the formal or informal sector? Formal 1 Informal 2 DS/RF…7

12. How would you describe your employment status? SHOWCARD 12 Long-term employee 1 Limited-term employee (contract work) 2 Private entrepreneur 3 DS/RF…7

13. If you are not currently working full-time, would you work additional hours if you had the opportunity? Yes 1 No 2 Currently working full-time 3 DS/RF…7

14. How confident are you that you will remain employed over the next 12 months? SHOWCARD 14 Not at all 1 A little 2 Fairly 3 Strongly 4 Extremely 5 DS/RF …7

15. In what sector is your job? SHOWCARD 15 [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE]

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1 Mining (incl. quarrying) 2  q. 15c Heavy industry (incl. manufacture of machinery and equipment; 3  q. 15c manufacture of electrical equipment; manufacture of coke, and refined petroleum products) Manufacturing 4 Energy (electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply; water 5 supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation) Construction 6  q. 15c Trade (wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and 7 motorcycles) Transportation (incl. storage, postal and courier activities) 8  q. 15c Public administration (incl. defense, compulsory social 9  q. 15c security) Education 10  q. 15c Healthcare 11 Social services (providing of care services, social assistance) 12  q. 15c Services (Accommodation and food service activities; Financial 13 and insurance activities; Real estate activities; Professional,

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 50 scientific and technical activities; Administrative and support service activities; Other service) Other (Information and telecommunication; Arts, sport, 14 entertainment and recreation; Activities of households; Activities of extra-territorial organizations and bodies) DN/RF 77  q. 15b

IF Q.15 = 1 (AGRICULTURE)

15a. You said, you work in the sector Agriculture, specify what is your company doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Growing crops and plant propagation [SPECIFY] 1 Animal production [SPECIFY] 2 Mixed farming [SPECIFY] 3 Support activities to agriculture and post-harvest crop activities [SPECIFY] 4 Hunting, trapping and related service activities 5 Forestry and logging 6 Fishing and aquaculture 7 Other agricultural activity [SPECIFY]: ______8 DN/RF 77

IF Q.15 = 4 (MANUFACTURING)

15a. You said, you work in the sector Manufacturing, specify what is your company doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Manufacture of food products beverages and tobacco products [SPECIFY] 9 Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, footwear and other leather products 10 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; 11 manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials; Manufacture of paper and paper products, printing 12 Chemical production and basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical 13 preparations Manufacture of rubber, plastics and other non-metallic mineral products 14 Metallurgy 15 Manufacture of metallic products [SPECIFY] 16 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products [SPECIFY] 17 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers and other transport equipment 18 Manufacture of furniture 19 Other manufacturing [SPECIFY]: ______20 DN/RF 77

IF Q.15 = 5 (ENERGY)

15a. You said, you work in the sector Energy, specify what is your company doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 21 Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains 22 Steam and air conditioning supply 23 Water collection, treatment and supply 24

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 51 Sewerage 25 Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery 26 Other activity in Energy [SPECIFY]: ______27 DN/RF 77

IF Q.15 = 7 (TRADE)

15a. You said, you work in the sector Trade, specify what is your company doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Wholesale of agricultural raw materials and live animals [SPECIFY] 28 Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco [SPECIFY] 29 Wholesale of textiles, clothing and footwear 30 Wholesale of household products (furnishings, home textile etc.), household 31 equipment [SPECIFY] Wholesale of construction materials and products current maintenance of the house 32 [SPECIFY] Wholesale of pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment 33 Wholesale of fuel, oils, motor vehicles, motorcycles and repair 34 Wholesale of audio, photo, electronical equipment and information processing 35 equipment (incl. computers, laptops, mobile phones, tablets etc.) [SPECIFY] Wholesale of printing products (incl. newspapers, books etc.) and stationery 36 [SPECIFY] Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco [SPECIFY] 37 Retail sale of textiles, clothing and footwear 38 Retail sale of household products (furnishings, home textile etc.), household 39 equipment [SPECIFY] Retail sale of construction materials and products current maintenance of the house 40 [SPECIFY] Retail sale of pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment 41 Retail sale of automotive fuel, oils, motor vehicles, motorcycles and repair 42 Retail sale of audio, photo, electronical equipment and information processing 43 equipment (incl. computers, laptops, mobile phones, tablets etc.) [SPECIFY] Retail sale of printing products (incl. newspapers, books etc.) and stationery 44 [SPECIFY] Other type of Trade [SPECIFY]: ______45 DN/RF 77

IF Q.15 = 11 (HEALTHCARE)

15a. You said, you work in the sector Healthcare, specify what is your company doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Hospital activities [SPECIFY] 46 General medical practice activities [SPECIFY] 47 Specialized medical practice activities [SPECIFY] 48 Dental practice activities 49 Other activities in healthcare [SPECIFY]: ______50 DN/RF 77

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 52 IF Q.15 = 13 (SERVICES)

15a. You said, you work in the sector Services, specify what is your company doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Providing services on accommodation 51 Providing food and beverage services 52 Providing telephone, telefax and Internet services 53 Providing financial and insurance services [SPECIFY] 54 Providing services on real estate 55 Providing legal and accounting services 56 Providing services on architecture and engineering; technical testing and analysis 57 Providing services on scientific research, developments and consulting 58 Providing services on advertising and market research 59 Providing other professional, scientific and technical services (incl. design, 60 photography, interpretation, veterinary etc.) Providing services on rental and leasing 61 Providing services on employment [SPECIFY] 62 Providing tourism services 63 Providing services on security and investigation 64 Providing services to buildings and landscape activities [SPECIFY] 65 Providing other services [SPECIFY]: ______66 DN/RF 77

IF Q.15 = 14 (OTHER)

15a. You said, you work in Other sector, please, specify what is your company doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Publishing activities 67 Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and 68 music publishing activities Programming, data processing and broadcasting activities, call-centers activities 69 telecommunications [SPECIFY] Creative, arts and entertainment activities 70 Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities 71 Sports, amusement, recreation, gambling and betting activities 72 Activities of households [SPECIFY] 73 Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies 74 Other activity [SPECIFY]: ______75 DN/RF 77

15b. What are the main goods or services the company provides? [NOTE]______DN/RF…7

15c. How qualified do you think you are for local job opportunities? SHOWCARD 15c

Not at all 1 A little 2 Fairly 3 Strongly 4 Extremely 5 DS/RF …7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 53

16. Are you looking for a new job? It could be in your current workplace or in a different workplace. Yes 1 No 2  question 17 DS/RF 7  question 17

16b. Which of the following reasons best explain why you are looking for a new job? SHOWCARD 16b. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY 1 Want to work less 5 Overqualified for current job Distance from home 6 Not qualified enough for current job 2 Have no equipment or supplies needed to 7 Want higher salary, wages, or 3 perform job: [open] benefits Other: [open] 8 Want to work more 4 DS/RF 9

16c. What are the main challenges you face in finding a new job? SHOWCARD 16c. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Not enough jobs 1 Have no access to information 4 Don’t have qualifications for available jobs 2 about jobs Can’t get to work: [open] 3 Other: [open] 5 DS/RF 6

17. Have you considered starting (or restarting) a business yourself instead of working for someone else? Yes 1 No 2  question 18 Already have a business 3  question 18 DS/RF 7  question 18

17a. In what sector? SHOWCARD 15

Agriculture, forestry and fishing [OPEN] 1 Mining (incl. quarrying) 2  q. 18 Heavy industry (incl. manufacture of machinery and equipment; 3  q. 18 manufacture of electrical equipment; manufacture of coke, and refined petroleum products) [OPEN] Manufacturing [OPEN] 4 Energy (electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply; water supply, 5 sewerage, waste management and remediation) Construction [OPEN] 6  q. 18 Trade (wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles) 7 [OPEN] Transportation (incl. storage, postal and courier activities) 8  q. 18 Public administration (incl. defense, compulsory social security) 9  q. 18 Education 10  q. 18 Healthcare 11 Social services (providing of care services, social assistance) 12  q. 18 Services (Accommodation and food service activities; Financial and 13

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 54 insurance activities; Real estate activities; Professional, scientific and technical activities; Administrative and support service activities; Other service) [OPEN] Other (Information and telecommunication; Arts, sport, entertainment and 14 recreation; Activities of households; Activities of extra-territorial organizations and bodies) DS/RF 77

17b. Describe the specific type of business that you have considered starting. ______DS/RF…7

18. What types of skills do you want to improve? SHOWCARD 18. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Not applicable (don’t lack qualifications) 1 Managerial Skills: [open] 6 Formal Education: [open] 2 Business Skills: [open] 7 Vocational Education: [open] 3 Other: [open] 8 Language Skills: [open] 4 DS/RF 9 Computer Skills: [open] 5

18a. WHERE AN “OPEN” RESPONSE IS INDICATED: Describe the specific qualifications you need to improve.______DS/RF…7

19. For the following services related to improving education, qualifications, and skills, please rate the quality of the service in our local area on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being very poor quality and 5 being very high quality. Let me know if the service does not exist in your local community. SHOWCARD 19

Very poor poor Very quality Average quality high Very quality use Did not does Service exist not DS/RF 1 Formal education [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 Vocational education [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3 Language skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 4 Computer skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 5 Managerial skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 Business skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 Other [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 19a. WHERE AN “SPECIFY” RESPONSE IS INDICATED: Describe the specific employment services available in your local area. ______DS/RF…7

How satisfied have you been in the past 12 months with… SHOWCARD 20

Not at all at Not littleA Fairly Strongly Extremely Did not use DS/RF 20 Services to improve your skills or qualifications as an employee? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 55 21 The hard infrastructure needed to find or access a job (such as 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 roads, bridges, or facilities for persons with disabilities)? 22 The soft infrastructure needed to search for or perform a job 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (such as utilities, telecomm, and internet)? 23 Public sector support to find or perform a job, such as programs, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 policies, and services?

24. Has your ability to find or perform a job been negatively affected by the conflict in eastern Ukraine in the past 12 months? SHOWCARD 24 Not at all 1 A little 2 Fairly 3 Strongly 4 Extremely 5 DS/RF …7

GO TO SECTION «FINANCIAL RESOURCES»

FOR UNEMPLOYED BUT LOOKING

25. How confident are you that you will find employment within the next 12 months? SHOWCARD 14 Not at all 1 A little 2 Fairly 3 Strongly 4 Extremely 5 DS/RF …7

26. Have you ever worked before? If yes, then which of the following reasons best explain why you are no longer at your previous job? SHOWCARD 26. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Have never had a job ( 27b7) 1 Previous workplace no longer exists: 4 Left previous job: [open with prompts – low 2 [open with prompts – conflict, pay, qualifications, conflict] economy] Laid-off or fired from previous job: [open] 3 Other: [open] 5 DS/RF 6

27. Are you looking for work in your previous sector or a new sector? Previous 1  question 27b7 New 2  question 27b4 Both 3  question 27b7 DS/RF 7  question 27b4

27b4. Which of the following reasons best explain why you are looking for a job in a new sector? SHOWCARD16b. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY 1 Want to work less 5 Overqualified for current job Distance from home 6 Not qualified enough for current job 2 Have no equipment or supplies needed to 7 Want higher salary, wages, or 3 perform job: [open]

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 56 benefits Other: [open] 8 Want to work more 4 DS/RF 9

27b7. What are the main challenges you face in finding a new job? SHOWCARD 16c. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Not enough jobs 1 Have no access to information 4 Don’t have qualifications for available jobs 2 about jobs Can’t get to work: [open] 3 Other: [open] 5 DS/RF 6

27b8. How qualified do you think you are for local job opportunities? SHOWCARD 15c Not at all 1 A little 2 Fairly 3 Strongly 4 Extremely 5 DS/RF …7

28. Have you considered starting (or restarting) a business yourself instead of working for someone else? Yes 1 No 2  question 29 DS/RF 7  question 29

28a. In what sector? SHOWCARD 15

Agriculture, forestry and fishing [OPEN] 1 Mining (incl. quarrying) 2  q. 29 Heavy industry (incl. manufacture of machinery and equipment; manufacture of 3  q. 29 electrical equipment; manufacture of coke, and refined petroleum products) [OPEN] Manufacturing [OPEN] 4 Energy (electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply; water supply, 5 sewerage, waste management and remediation) Construction [OPEN] 6  q. 29 Trade (wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles) 7 [OPEN] Transportation (incl. storage, postal and courier activities) 8  q. 29 Public administration (incl. defense, compulsory social security) 9  q. 29 Education 10  q. 29 Healthcare 11 Social services (providing of care services, social assistance) 12  q. 29 Services (Accommodation and food service activities; Financial and insurance 13 activities; Real estate activities; Professional, scientific and technical activities; Administrative and support service activities; Other service) [OPEN] Other (Information and telecommunication; Arts, sport, entertainment and 14 recreation; Activities of households; Activities of extra-territorial organizations and bodies) DS/RF 77

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 57 28b. Describe the specific type of business that you have considered starting. ______DS/RF…7

29. What types of skills do you want to improve? SHOWCARD 18. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Not applicable (don’t lack qualifications) 1 Managerial Skills: [open] 6 Formal Education: [open] 2 Business Skills: [open] 7 Vocational Education: [open] 3 Other: [open] 8 Language Skills: [open] 4 DS/RF 9 Computer Skills: [open] 5

29a. WHERE AN “OPEN” RESPONSE IS INDICATED: Describe the specific qualifications you need to improve. ______DS/RF…7

30. For the following services related to improving education, qualifications, and skills, please rate the quality of the service in our local area on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being very poor quality and 5 being very high quality. Let me know if the service does not exist in your local community. SHOWCARD 19

Very Very poor quality Poor Average quality High high Very quality Did not use Service does not exist 1 Formal education [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 Vocational education 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 [SPECIFY] 3 Language skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 4 Computer skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 5 Managerial skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 Business skills [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 Other [SPECIFY] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

30a. WHERE AN “OPEN” RESPONSE IS INDICATED: Describe the specific employment services available in your local area. ______DS/RF…7

How satisfied have you been in the past 12 months with… SHOWCARD 20

Not at all at Not littleA Fairly Strongly Extremely Did not use DS/RF 31 Services to improve your skills or qualifications as 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 an employee? 32 The hard infrastructure needed to find or access a job (such as roads, bridges, or facilities for persons 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 with disabilities)? 33 The soft infrastructure needed to search for or perform a job (such as utilities, telecomm, and 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 internet)? 34 Public sector support to find or perform a job, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 58 such as programs, policies, and services? 35. Has your ability to find or perform a job been negatively affected by the conflict in Eastern Ukraine in the past 12 months? SHOWCARD 24 Not at all 1 A little 2 Fairly 3 Strongly 4 Extremely 5 DS/RF …7

GO TO SECTION «FINANCIAL RESOURCES»

FOR UNEMPLOYED BUT NOT LOOKING

35.0. Have you ever had a paid job? Yes 1 No 2  Q 35.1 DS/RF 7  Q 35.1

35.0a. For how long haven’t you had a paid job? ____ months AND _____ years DS/RF…77

35.0b. What caused you to leave the job? SHOWCARD 35.0b. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Retirement 1 Business closed down 6 Needed to care for family or household 2 Was fired from job 7 Studying / Education 3 Conflict in Eastern Ukraine 8 Personal health issues 4 Other: [open] 9 Moved away from job location 5 DS/RF 10

35.0c. What was the main reason why you stopped looking for a new job? Financially secure 1 Too frustrated to continue looking 2 Can’t work due to age or health status 3 Have to take care of family members or household 4 Other: [SPECIFY] 5 DS/RF…7

35.1. Do you produce any agricultural or livestock products, either for consuming by your household or for selling?

Yes, only for consuming by the 1 household Yes, both for consuming and for selling 2 No 3  SECTION « FINANCIAL RESOURCES» DS/RF 7  SECTION « FINANCIAL RESOURCES»

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 59 SECTION IV. Financial Resources

Now, we’re going to ask a few questions about the different ways this household budget is supported – from things like wages, informal activities, interest from savings, or outside assistance, including food, clothing, and vouchers. For each of the following types of potential income that contribute to this household’s monthly budget, please estimate an approximate percentage contribution. The percentage contributions from all activities and sources of income combined should total 100%.

36.0. From what sources does your household receive income? SHOWCARD 36.0. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY.

36. Please assume all your household income as 100%. What percentage of the total household income on average for past 12 months is brought from the following source (ASK FOR EACH SOURCE SELECTED IN 36.0).

Q Source Select % DS/RF all that apply 36 Income from jobs of all your household members 1 777 37 Regular transfers or remittances from family members living 2 777 elsewhere 38 Any informal business activities – sales of produce or meat, prepared 3 777 food, tailoring services, childcare, engine repair, handicrafts, etc. 39 Income from property rental 4 777 40 Pension 5 777 41 Regular government assistance 6 777 INCLUDE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY FOR GAS/HEATING 42 Regular humanitarian assistance, including food, medicine, housing, 7 777 or services for children from charitable foundations, religious communities, or private companies DON’T INCLUDE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY FOR GAS/HEATING 43 Regular interest from savings 8 777 44 Any other activities or sources of income (SPECIFY) 9 777 None 10 DS/RF 11

IF Q42 = 0 42a. You just mentioned that you do not receive any regular humanitarian assistance. But if you needed such help, do you think you would be able to get it? Yes 1 No 2 DS/RF…7

IF OBLAST=3 OR 4 AND RESPONDENT IS NOT AN IDP OR VETERAN (Q9<>1 & Q9<>4), SKIP TO Q48

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 60 47. If you have received any type of financial or humanitarian assistance related to the conflict in the past 12 months, what type of assistance were you provided? SHOWCARD 47 [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] DO NOT COUNT THE ASSISTANCE RESPONDENT WOULD RECEIVE EVEN IF THERE WAS NO CONFLICT

Food and Household Supplies 1 Cash 7 Housing and utilities 2 Grant 8 Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 3 Loan 9 Healthcare 4 Other: [open] 10 Counseling 5 Have not received any assistance 11 Education and Training 6 DS/RF 12

48. Do you currently have personal savings? Yes 1 No 2  question 49 DS/RF 7  question 49

48a. If your household income suddenly stopped, how long could you live off your personal savings?

About 1 month 1 About 1 year 4 About 3 months 2 More than 1 year 5 About 6 months 3 DS/RF 7

49. Have you done any of the following to cover living expenses in the past 12 months? SHOWCARD 49. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Borrowed money from financial institution 1 Reduced planned health 7 (bank or credit union) expenditures Received ‘quick consumer credit’ 2 Relocated for job opportunity 8 Borrowed from family or friends 3 Other: [open] 9 Spent savings 4 None 10 Sold an asset 5 6 DS/RF 11 Postpone education or training

50. If needed, can you: Yes No DS/RF a Obtain personal loan from a financial institution (bank or credit 1 2 7 union)? b Obtain ‘quick consumer credit’? 1 2 7 c Obtain education assistance (grants or loans) from the government 1 2 7 or financial institution? d Borrow a small amount (1,000-10,000 UAH) from a family 1 2 7 member or friend? e Borrow more than 10,000 UAH from a family member or friend? 1 2 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 61 SECTION V. Economic Future

51. Do you believe that your overall circumstances have changed in the past 12 months in regard to: Improved Worsened Stayed about DS/RF the same A Your health status? 1 2 3 7 B Your access to and affordability of education? 1 2 3 7 C Your ability to increase income? 1 2 3 7 D Your ability to meet household needs? 1 2 3 7

52. How do you feel economic opportunities for yourself or your household will change in the next 2 years? SHOWCARD 52

Get much better 1 Get somewhat worse 4 Get somewhat better 2 Get much worse 5 No change 3  question 53 DS/RF 7  question 53

52a. What is this feeling based on? SHOWCARD 52а. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY

Changes in your household resources or 1 Changes in prices of goods and 4 opportunities [SPECIFY: a) access to jobs services [SPECIFY: a) food b) housing b) opportunities for self-employment c) c) clothing d) petrol e) electricity f) other opportunities to earn income d) heating fuel g) transportation] financial support from government or Changes in government [SPECIFY: 5 humanitarian assistance] newly elected officials b) changes in Changes in local economy [SPECIFY: a) 2 policies c) changes in budget priorities number of jobs available b) types of jobs d) changes in performance of local available c) opportunities for self- government staff e) changes in employment d) average income] difficulty of administrative procedures Changes in public services available locally 3 f) attention of national government [SPECIFY: a) water/sewerage b) trash officials to the region] collection/disposal c) road maintenance d) Changes in degree/intensity of conflict 6 public safety] Other: [SPECIFY]______7 DN/RA 8

53. How do you feel the economy of your oblast will change in the next 2 years? SHOWCARD 52 Get much better 1 Get somewhat worse 4 Get somewhat better 2 Get much worse 5 No change 3  question 54 DS/RF 7  question 54

53a. What is this feeling based on? SHOWCARD 53а. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY Changes in household resources or 1 Changes in prices of goods and 4 opportunities of others in oblast [SPECIFY: services [SPECIFY: a) food b) housing a) access to jobs b) opportunities for self- c) clothing d) petrol e) electricity f) employment c) other opportunities to earn heating fuel g) transportation] income d) financial support from Changes in government [SPECIFY: 5 government or humanitarian assistance] newly elected officials b) changes in

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 62 Changes in local economy [SPECIFY: a) 2 policies c) changes in budget priorities number of jobs available b) types of jobs d) changes in performance of local available c) opportunities for self- government staff e) changes in employment d) average income] difficulty of administrative procedures Changes in public services available locally 3 f) attention of national government [SPECIFY: a) water/sewerage b) trash officials to the region] collection/disposal c) road maintenance d) Changes in degree/intensity of conflict 6 public safety] Other: [SPECIFY]______7 DN/RA 8

54. Over the next 5 years, do you think there will be more or better economic opportunities in this region that allow people to stay here? Get much better 1 Get somewhat worse 4 Get somewhat better 2 Get much worse 5 No change 3  question 55 DS/RF 7  question 55

54a. What is this feeling based on? SHOWCARD [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Changes in household resources or job 1 Changes in prices of goods and 4 opportunities in oblast [SPECIFY: a) access services [SPECIFY: a) food b) housing to jobs b) opportunities for self- c) clothing d) petrol e) electricity f) employment c) other opportunities to earn heating fuel g) transportation] income d) financial support from Changes in government [SPECIFY: 5 government or humanitarian assistance newly elected officials b) changes in Changes in local economy [SPECIFY: a) 2 policies c) changes in budget priorities number of jobs available b) types of jobs d) changes in performance of local available c) opportunities for self- government staff e) changes in employment d) average income] difficulty of administrative procedures Changes in public services available locally 3 f) attention of national government [SPECIFY: a) water/sewerage b) trash officials to the region] collection/disposal c) road maintenance d) Changes in degree/intensity of conflict 6 public safety] Other: [SPECIFY]______7 DN/RA 8

55. How confident are you that the local government is making the right decisions to improve the economy? SHOWCARD 55 Not at all 1 Strongly 4 A little 2 Extremely 5 Fairly 3 DS/RF 7

56. Have you heard of information campaign СХІД можливостей? Yes 1 No 2  question 57 DS/RF 7  question 57

56a. What comes up in your mind when you hear СХІД можливостей? [SPECIFY]:______DS/RF…7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 63

57. Do you recognize this image?

Yes 1 No 2  question 58 DS/RF 7  question 58

57a. What do you know about it? [SPECIFY]:______DS/RF…7

Thank you very much for your time.

58. What is your phone number and/or email address for data verification purposes? Phone number: (+380)______Email address: ______

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 64 Business Survey Questionnaire KYIV INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF SOCIOLOGY ERA_ANALYTICAL SERVICES YEAR 2: BUSINESS SURVEY

DEAR ENUMERATOR! SAY HELLO TO THE RESPONDENT AND DO NOT PAY ATTENTION ON THE LANGUAGE TO FIND OUT WHICH LANGUAGE IS EASIER FOR THE RESPONDENT TO SPEAK WITH YOU: Добрий д[е]нь (в[е]ч[е]р)

SECTION I. INTRODUCTION

WELCOME: CHOOSE THE LANGUAGE CONVENIENT FOR RESPONDEENT (LOOK AT THE GUIDE)

Hello, my name is ______. I am a survey enumerator, and I am working with the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology to administer an annual business study in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Azov Sea region.

IF RESPONSENT ANSWER IN:

...Ukrainian, ASK: ...Russian‚ ASK: Tell me, please‚ what language could I talk to you, Tell me, please‚ what language could I talk to you, Ukrainian or Russian? Russian or Ukrainian?

Ukrainian...…….1  MARK THE ANSWER AND CONTINUE THE INTERVIEW IN UKRAINIAN

Russian...... …….2  SWITCH ONTO THE RUSSIAN QUESTIONNAIRE, MARK THE ANSWER THERE AND CONTINUE THE INTERVIEW IN RUSSIAN

І.1. Can you please confirm that you are the owner or general manager (director, senior manager, financial manager etc.) of this company / enterprise? What is your exact title? Company Owner 1 Head of Department 4 Director / Vice Director 2 Other managerial position [SPECIFY]: __ 5 Finance / HR Manager 3 Not a managerial staff 6

[IF І.1 ~= 6 (MANAGERIAL POSITION), CONTINUE THE SURVEY, IF І.1 = 6 (NOT A MANAGERIAL STAFF), FOLLOWING THE GUIDELINE TRY TO AGREE THE INTERVIEW WITH SOMEONE OF OWNERS OR MANAGERS AT TIME CONVENIENT FOR HE / SHE]

PURPOSE OF SURVEY: Your enterprise / company has been randomly selected to participate in this survey. Your responses will be used to represent the viewpoints and experiences of businesses operating in your community. Your responses will assist to better understand and define the factors related to economic growth and economic opportunities in this region. Your participation today will help us to identify what changes are requested and which one could be implemented in this region over the next five years.

CONSENT TO BE INTERVIEWED: I ask, with your consent, for your time in responding to a short survey concerning the economic status of your enterprise / company and your candid opinions concerning the future economic prospects for your enterprise / company and the region overall. We estimate that the survey will take no longer than 30 minutes.

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 65 We will keep confidential all information that identifies you. We will securely store and transmit any information that identifies you. We will not share your personal information with people outside the research team. Your answers will be used in such a way that your person could not be identified. Do you consent?

[IF «NO», STOP THE INTERVIEW AND FOLLOWING THE GUIDELINE MOVE TO THE NEXT INTERVIEW]

І.2. DATE AND START TIME OF INTERVIEW: [TO BE AUTOMATICALLY CAPTURED BY PROGRAM] І.3. QUESTIONNAIRE ID: [TO BE AUTOMATICALLY CAPTURED BY PROGRAM] І.4. COMPANY ІD: (BY THE SAMPLE) |___|___|___| І.5. TYPE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (CODE BY KVED): (BY THE SAMPLE) |__|__|.|__|__| І.6. STRATA BY THE COMPANY SIZE: (BY THE SAMPLE) Large / Medium 1 Small / Micro 2

Thank you for taking time to speak with me. First of all, I would like to ask where your company is located geographically:

І.7. In what oblast or what part of oblast, government controlled or non-government controlled areas? Donetska (GCA) 1 Luhanska (GCA) 2 Donetska or Luhanska (NGCA) → END OF SURVEY Zaporizka (Berdyansky, Melitopolsky, 3 Khersonska (Henichesky district) 4 Pryazovsky, Prymorsky districts, Berdyansk city or Melitopol city) Other oblast → END OF SURVEY

І.8. In what settlement or district (NOTE)? ______I.9. SETTLEMENT / DISTRICT CODE: [TO BE AUTOMATICALLY CAPTURED BY PROGRAM] |___|___|___|___|___|

11. How many full-time, year-round employees, including you, work in the company? ______employees DN/RA…77

CODE AUTOMATICALLY:

Respondent is only employee 1 51 – 250 employees 3 2 – 10 employees 2 More than 250 employees 4 11 – 50 employees 3 DN/RA 7

SECTION II. Demographic Information

ABOUT RESPONDENT

First, I would like to ask a few questions about your personal information.

1. IDENTIFY THE RESPONDENT GENDER (ASK IF HARD TO IDENTIFY): Male…1 Female…2 2. How old are you? |___|___| IF THE RESPONDENT DOESN’T WANT TO SAY THE AGE, ASK IN WHAT AGE INTERVAL IS IT IF THE RESPONDENT TOLD THE AGE, AUTOMATICALLY CAPTURED CORRESPONDING CODE INTO Q.2а

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 66 2а. Tell me, at least, in what age INTERVAL? 18 – 28 years 1 60 – 65 years 4 29 – 35 years 2 66 years and older 5 36 – 59 years 3 DN/RA 7

3. What is the highest level of education that you have completed? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Primary or base secondary general 1 Incomplete higher (junior specialist degree) 4 Completed secondary general 2 Base higher (bachelor degree) 5 Vocational (VET school, PTU, lyceum) 3 Higher (master’s degree) 6 DN/RA 7

4. Do any of the following statuses apply to you? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Internally displaced person 1 Returnee 2 Person with disabilities 3 ATO Veteran 4 None of the above 5  q. 5 DN/RA …7

IF Q.4 = 1 (INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSON) 4.1a. You indicated that you are an Internally displaced person. Where did you live immediately prior to the conflict that began in 2014? [NOTE SETTLEMENT NAME, DISTRICT, OBLAST] ______DN/RA …7

4.1b. When did you leave the settlement where you lived prior to the conflict beginning? [YEAR] 20___ DN/RA…77

4.1e. Do you plan to remain in the settlement you currently live in for the next 12 months? Yes 1 No 2 DN/RA…7

IF Q.4 = 2 (RETURNEE) 4.2a2. You said that you are a Returnee. When did you originally leave your current home? [YEAR] 20_____ DN/RA…77

4.2b2. And when did you return? [YEAR] 20_____ DN/RA…77

4.2e. What is the main reason you returned? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Protect property (home or assets) 1 Studying / Education 4 Job Opportunities 2 Safety situation improved 5 Return to Family 3 Other: [SPECIFY] 6 DN/RA 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 67 IF Q.4 = 3 (PERSON WITH DISABILITIES) 4.3a. You said that you are a Person with disabilities. In what way does this disability limit your ability to work? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Not able to work at all 1 Can only do certain types of job 3 Can only work limited hours 2 No work limitations 4 DN/RA 7

IF Q.4 = 4 (ATO VETERAN) 4.4a. You said that you are an ATO Veteran. In what way has this affected your ability to start or operate your business? Affected (SPECIFY, IN WHAT WAY): 1 ______Did not affect at all 2 DN/RA…7

ABOUT COMPANY

Now, a few questions about your company.

5. What is the full name of your company? [NOTE, IF THE RESPONDENT REFUSE TO ANSWER, SPECIFY THE NAME BY THE SAMPLE] ______DN/RA …7

6. Counting yourself also if you are an owner, how many total owners / co-owners are there in the company? |___|___|___| DN/RA …777

6а. What percent of the owners are female? |___|___|___|% DN/RA …777

7. How would you describe the settlement where your company is located? Large City (more than 100 000 habitants) 1 Medium city (20 000-99 999 habitants) 2 Small town or urban settlement (up to 20 000 habitants) 3 Village 4 DN/RA…7

9. What year did your company open? [NOTE YEAR] |__|__|__|__| DN/RA…77

10. In what primary sector does your company work? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1 Mining (incl. quarrying) 2  q. 11 Heavy industry (incl. manufacture of machinery and equipment; 3  q. 11 manufacture of electrical equipment; manufacture of coke, and refined petroleum products) Manufacturing 4 Energy (electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply; water 5 supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation) Construction 6  q. 11 Trade (wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and 7 motorcycles)

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 68 Transportation (incl. storage, postal and courier activities) 8  q. 11 Public administration (incl. defense, compulsory social security) 9  q. 11 Education 10  q. 11 Healthcare 11 Social services (providing of care services, social assistance) 12  q. 11 Services (Accommodation and food service activities; Financial and 13 insurance activities; Real estate activities; Professional, scientific and technical activities; Administrative and support service activities; Other service) Other (Information and telecommunication; Arts, sport, entertainment 14 and recreation; Activities of households; Activities of extra-territorial organizations and bodies) DN/RA 77

IF Q.10 = 1 (AGRICULTURE) 10.a. You said that your company works in the sector Agriculture, specify what it is doing. [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Growing crops and plant propagation [SPECIFY]: ___ 1 Animal production [SPECIFY]: ___ 2 Mixed farming [SPECIFY]: ___ 3 Support activities to agriculture and post-harvest crop activities [SPECIFY]: ___ 4 Hunting, trapping and related service activities 5 Forestry and logging 6 Fishing and aquaculture 7 Other Agricultural activity [SPECIFY]: ______8 DN/RA… 77

IF Q.10 = 4 (MANUFACTURING) 10.a. You said that your company works in the sector Manufacturing, specify what it is doing. [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Manufacture of food products beverages and tobacco products [SPECIFY]: ___ 9 Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, footwear and other leather products 10 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; 11 manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials; Manufacture of paper and paper products, printing and publishing activity 12 Chemical production and basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical 13 preparations Manufacture of rubber, plastics and other on-metallic mineral products 14 Metallurgy 15 Manufacture of metallic products [SPECIFY]: ___ 16 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products [SPECIFY]: ___ 17 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers and other transport equipment 18 Manufacture of furniture 19 Other Manufacturing [SPECIFY]: ______20 DN/RA 77

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 69 IF Q.10 = 5 (ENERGY) 10.a. You said that your company works in the sector Energy, specify what it is doing. [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 21 Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains 22 Steam and air conditioning supply 23 Water collection, treatment and supply 24 Sewerage 25 Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery 26 Other activity in Energy [SPECIFY]: ______27 DN/RA 77

IF Q.10 = 7 (TRADE) 10.a. You said that your company works in the sector Trade, specify what it is doing. [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Wholesale of agricultural raw materials and live animals [SPECIFY]: ___ 28 Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco [SPECIFY]: ___ 29 Wholesale of textiles, clothing and footwear 30 Wholesale of household products (furnishings, home textile etc.), household 31 equipment [SPECIFY]: ___ Wholesale of construction materials and products current maintenance of the house 32 [SPECIFY]: ___ Wholesale of pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment 33 Wholesale of fuel, oils, motor vehicles, motorcycles and repair 34 Wholesale of audio, photo, electronical equipment and information processing 35 equipment (incl. computers, laptops, mobile phones, tablets etc.) [SPECIFY]: ___ Wholesale of printing products (incl. newspapers, books etc.) and stationery 36 [SPECIFY]: ___ Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco [SPECIFY]: ___ 37 Retail sale of textiles, clothing and footwear 38 Retail sale of household products (furnishings, home textile etc.), household 39 equipment [SPECIFY]: ___ Retail sale of construction materials and products current maintenance of the house 40 [SPECIFY]: ___ Retail sale of pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment 41 Retail sale of automotive fuel, oils, motor vehicles, motorcycles and repair 42 Retail sale of audio, photo, electronical equipment and information processing 43 equipment (incl. computers, laptops, mobile phones, tablets etc.) [SPECIFY]: ___ Retail sale of printing products (incl. newspapers, books etc.) and stationery 44 [SPECIFY]: ___ Other type of Trade [SPECIFY]: ______45 DN/RA 77

IF Q.10 = 11 (HEALTHCARE) 10.a. You said that your company works in the sector Healthcare, specify what it is doing. [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Hospital activities [SPECIFY]: ___ 46 General medical practice activities [SPECIFY]: ___ 47 Specialized medical practice activities [SPECIFY]: ___ 48

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 70 Dental practice activities 49 Other activities in healthcare [SPECIFY]: ______50 DN/RA 77

IF Q.10 = 13 (SERVICES) 10.a. You said that your company works in the sector Services, specify what it is doing? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Providing services on accommodation 51 Providing food and beverage services 52 Providing telephone, telefax and Internet services 53 Providing financial and insurance services [SPECIFY]: ___ 54 Providing services on real estate 55 Providing legal and accounting services 56 Providing services on architecture and engineering; technical testing and analysis 57 Providing services on scientific research, developments and consulting 58 Providing services on advertising and market research 59 Providing other professional, scientific and technical services (incl. design, 60 photography, interpretation, veterinary etc.) Providing services on rental and leasing 61 Providing services on employment [SPECIFY]: ___ 62 Providing tourism services 63 Providing services on security and investigation 64 Providing services to buildings and landscape activities [SPECIFY]: ___ 65 Providing other services [SPECIFY]: ______66 DN/RA… 77

IF Q.10 = 14 (OTHER) 10.a. You said that your company works in Other sector, specify what it is doing. [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Publishing activities 67 Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and 68 music publishing activities Programming, data processing and broadcasting activities, call-centers activities, 69 telecommunications[SPECIFY]: ___ Creative, arts and entertainment activities 70 Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities 71 Sports, amusement, recreation, gambling and betting activities 72 Activities of households [SPECIFY]: ___ 73 Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies 74 Other activity [SPECIFY]: ______75 DN/RA 77

10.b. What are the main goods or services the company provides? [NOTE]______DN/RA …7

12. You said that ___ [INSERT THE ANSWER FROM Q11] full-time, year-round employees including you work in your company. How many females among them? [NOTE, THE NUMBER CANNOT OVER THE HIGH BORDER OF THE INTERVAL IN Q.11] |___|___|___| DN/RA …777

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 71 13. How many managers work in the company? [NOTE, THE NUMBER CANNOT OVER THE HIGHBORDER OF THE INTERVAL IN Q.11] |___|___|___| DN/RA …777 [IF “0,” SKIP TO Q15]

14. How many females among managers? [NOTE, NUMBER CANNOT OVER THE NUMBER IN Q.13] |___|___|___| DN/RA …777

15. Can you estimate the annual revenue of the company? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Up to 5 million UAH 1 21 – 30 million UAH 4 5 – 10 million UAH 2 Over 30 million UAH 5 11 – 20 million UAH 3 DN/RA 7

16. Has this business been negatively affected by the conflict in the past 12 months? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] Not at all 1  q. 17 A little 2 Fairly 3 Strongly 4 Extremely 5 DN/RA…7

IF Q.16 ~= 1 (HAS BEEN AFFECTED) 16.a. You said that the conflict negatively affected the business. Please, specify in what way. [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Had to close operations temporarily 1 Incurred damage or loss of property or equipment 2 Suffered staff shortages due to the conflict 3 Suffered loss of markets due to conflict 4 Suffered loss of financial resources (e.g. savings, access to credit) 5 Had to downsize operations due to lack of revenue 6 Had to move locations due to loss of infrastructure 7 Other: [SPECIFY]______8 DN/RA…77

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 72 SECTION III. Economic Opportunity

Here, let’s discuss several factors that allow your business to operate more efficiently and effectively.

How satisfied have you been in the past 12 months with:

Not at all at Not littleA Fairly Strongly Extremely / applicable Not didn’ t need DN/RA 17 the services available to improve your skills or 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 qualifications as a company owner or manager? 18 access to skilled, qualified employees? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 19 input suppliers in terms of the range and quality 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 of inputs and equipment that you need? 20 access to new markets? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 21 access to the range and volume of capital 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 required for successful company activity? 22 professional services, such as legal, accounting, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 banking, and marketing? 23 infrastructure needed for the company to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 operate, such as roads, bridges, and real estate? 24 access to utilities, telecomm, and internet? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 25 public sector support, such as programs, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 policies, and services?

17a – 25а. IF SELECTED «NOT AT ALL»: Describe, what exactly caused your frustration? ______DN/RA …7

26. Did you face challenges in finding qualified staff? Yes 1 No 2  q. 27 DN/RA 7

IF Q.26 = 1 (FACED CHALLENGES) 26a. You said, you faced challenges in finding qualified staff, please, specify the main of them? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Applicants lack required formal education or degrees [SPECIFY]___ 1 Applicants lack necessary vocational education or skills [SPECIFY]___ 2 Applicants lack required language skills [SPECIFY]___ 3 Applicants lack required level of computer or IT skills [SPECIFY]___ 4 Applicants lack required managerial skills [SPECIFY]___ 5 Lack of applicants in general 6 Other: [SPECIFY]______7 DN/RA…77

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 73 27. Where are your primary markets located? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] GCA of Donetska 1 Eastern Ukraine excluding Donetska, 6 Luhanska oblasts and Azov Sea region NGCA of Donetska 2 Northern, Southern, Western, or 7 Central Ukraine GCA of Luhanska 3 International markets 8 NGCA of Luhanska 4 DN/RA 7 7 Azov Sea region: Berdyansk c., Melitopol c., 5 Berdyansky, Melitopolsky, Pryazovsky, Prymorsky districts of Zaporizka and Henichesky district of Khersonska

IF Q.27 = 1-5 (DONETSKA, LUHANSKS OBLASTS AND AZOV SEA REGION) 27.1. Please specify, in what settlements of Donetska, Luhanska, Zpoeizka and Khersonska oblasts. ______DN/RA…77

IF Q.27 = 6-7 (OTHER OBLASTS OF UKRAINE) 27.2. Please specify, in what oblasts of Ukraine. Vinnytska 5 Kirovohradska 35 Kharkivska 63 Volynska 7 Lvivska 46 Khersonska (rest of oblast) 65 Dnipropetrovska 12 Mykolaivska 48 Khmelnytska 68 Zhytomyrska 18 Odeska 51 Cherkaska 71 Zakarpatska 21 Poltavskka 53 Chernivetska 73 Zaporizka (rest of oblast) 23 Rivnenska 56 Chernihivska 74 Ivano-Frankivska 26 Sumka 59 Kyiv city 80 Kyivska 32 Ternopilska 61 DN/RA 77

IF Q.27 = 8 (INTERNATIONAL MARKETS) 27.3. Please specify, in what global region.[SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Europe 1 Africa 5 Asia 2 Australia and Oceania 6 America 3 DN/RA 7

27.4. And in what countries? ______DN/RA…77

28. In the past 12 months, have you tried to enter any new markets? Yes 1 No 2  q. 30 DN/RA 7

28a. If yes, were you successful or unsuccessful? Successful 1 Unsuccessful 2  q. 29a Both Successful and Unsuccessful (at different attempts) 3 DN/RA 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 74

IF Q. 28a = 1 (SUCCESSFUL) 28b. Where are these markets located? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] GCA of Donetska 1 Eastern Ukraine excluding Donetska, 6 Luhanska oblasts and Azov Sea region NGCA of Donetska 2 Northern, Southern, Western, or 7 Central Ukraine GCA of Luhanska 3 International markets 8 NGCA of Luhanska 4 DN/RA 7 7 Azov Sea region: Berdyansk c., Melitopol c., 5 Berdyansky, Melitopolsky, Pryazovsky, Prymorsky districts of Zaporizka and Henichesky district of Khersonska

IF Q. 28b = 1-5 (DONETSKA, LUHANSKS OBLASTS AND AZOV SEA REGION) 28b.1. Please specify, in what settlements of Donetska, Luhanska, Zpoeizka and Khersonska oblasts. ______DN/RA…77

IF Q. 28b = 6-7 (OTHER OBLASTS OF UKRAINE) 28b.2. Please specify, in what oblasts of Ukraine. Vinnytska 5 Kirovohradska 35 Kharkivska 63 Volynska 7 Lvivska 46 Khersonska (rest of oblast) 65 Dnipropetrovska 12 Mykolaivska 48 Khmelnytska 68 Zhytomyrska 18 Odeska 51 Cherkaska 71 Zakarpatska 21 Poltavskka 53 Chernivetska 73 Zaporizka (rest of oblast) 23 Rivnenska 56 Chernihivska 74 Ivano-Frankivska 26 Sumka 59 Kyiv city 80 Kyivska 32 Ternopilska 61 DN/RA 77

IF Q. 28b = 8 (INTERNATIONAL MARKETS) 28b.3. Please specify, in what global region. [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Europe 1 Africa 5 Asia 2 Australia and Oceania 6 America 3 DN/RA 7

28b.4. And in what countries? ______DN/RA…77

IF Q.28a = 2 (UNSUCCESSFUL) 29a. Where are these markets located? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] GCA of Donetska 1 Eastern Ukraine excluding Donetska, 6 Luhanska oblasts and Azov Sea region NGCA of Donetska 2 Northern, Southern, Western, or 7 Central Ukraine GCA of Luhanska 3 International markets 8 NGCA of Luhanska 4 DN/RA 7 7 Azov Sea region: Berdyansk c., Melitopol c., 5 Berdyansky, Melitopolsky, Pryazovsky,

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 75 Prymorsky districts of Zaporizka and Henichesky district of Khersonska

IF Q. 29a = 1-5 (DONETSKA, LUHANSKS OBLASTS AND AZOV SEA REGION) 29a.1. Please specify, in what settlements of Donetska, Luhanska, Zpoeizka and Khersonska oblasts. ______DN/RA…77

IF Q. 29a = 6-7 (OTHER OBLASTS OF UKRAINE) 29a.2. Please specify, in what oblasts of Ukraine. Vinnytska 5 Kirovohradska 35 Kharkivska 63 Volynska 7 Lvivska 46 Khersonska (rest of oblast) 65 Dnipropetrovska 12 Mykolaivska 48 Khmelnytska 68 Zhytomyrska 18 Odeska 51 Cherkaska 71 Zakarpatska 21 Poltavskka 53 Chernivetska 73 Zaporizka (rest of oblast) 23 Rivnenska 56 Chernihivska 74 Ivano-Frankivska 26 Sumka 59 Kyiv city 80 Kyivska 32 Ternopilska 61 DN/RA 77

IF Q. 29a = 8 (INTERNATIONAL MARKETS) 29a.3. Please specify, in what global region. [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Europe 1 Africa 5 Asia 2 Australia and Oceania 6 America 3 DN/RA 7

29a.4. And in what countries. ______DN/RA…77

29b. What prevented you from accessing the new market(s)? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]

Lack of infrastructure (roads, bridges, 1 New technical regulations (demands to 7 points of sales) certify products by self, etc.) Lack of financial capital 2 Security concerns due to ongoing 8 conflict Currency fluctuation 3 Domestic corruption 9 Lack of qualified workers 4 My business practices need to improve 10 to be more competitive Lack of information about new markets 5 Other: [SPECIFY]______11 Lack of demand for your products and 6 DN/RA 77 services

29. What sources of finance do you currently use to support your company? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Reinvested earnings 1 Other government support: [SPECIFY] 5 Loans: [SPECIFY] 2 Ukrainian private foundation 6 Personal savings 3 Private investment 7 Grant from government or other 4 Other: [SPECIFY] 8 organizations: [SPECIFY] DN/RA 7 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 76 IF Q. 30 = 2 (LOANS) 30а. What types of loans do you use? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Bank 1 Organization 5 Credit union 2 Family or friends 6 Payday lender 3 DN/RA 7

IF Q. 30 = 4 (GRANTS) 30b.1. Please, describe what Grant programs do you use. ______DN/RA…77

IF Q. 30 = 5 (OTHER GOVERNMENT SUPPORT) 30b.2. Please, describe what Government support do you use. ______DN/RA…77

IF Q. 30 = 8 (OTHER) 30b.3. Please, describe what Other funds do you use. ______DN/RA…77

30. Please, estimate the length of time in which your current cash and liquid assets could sufficiently cover operating expenses during periods of conflict or other crisis? [SELECT ONLY ONE RESPONSE] About 1 month 1 About 1 year 5 About 3 month 2 More than 1 year 6 About 6 month 3 DN/RA 7

31. Do you have access to other sources of emergency financing / capital? Yes 1 No 2  q. 33 DN/RA 7

IF Q.32 = 1 (YES) 32а. Please, describe what are the sources of emergency financing? ______DN/RA…77

32. Would you like to expand your business? Yes 1 No 2  SECTION IV DN/RA 7

IF Q.33 = 1 (YES) 33a. What are the main challenges you face in expanding your business? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Not enough qualified workers 1  q. 33b Respondent lacks personal skills or qualifications needed 2 Don’t have financial capital 3  q. 33b Don’t have access to equipment or property 4  q. 33b Lack of critical infrastructure 5  q. 33b Don’t have time 6  q. 33b Not enough customers to support expansion 7  q. 33b Don’t have access to information about new markets 8  q. 33b

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 77 New technical regulations (demands to certify products by self, etc.) 9  q. 33b Security concerns due to ongoing conflict 10  q. 33b Other: [SPECIFY]______11  q. 33b DN/RA 77  q. 33b

IF Q.33а = 2 (LACKS PERSONAL SKILLS) 33а.1. If lack of personal skills a challenge in expanding your business, what skills development services are available locally? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Formal education: [EXPLAIN] 1 Managerial skills: [EXPLAIN] 5 Vocational education: [EXPLAIN] 2 Business skills: [EXPLAIN] 6 Language skills: [EXPLAIN] 3 Other: [EXPLAIN] 7 Computer skills: [EXPLAIN] 4 Don't know about any 8 DN/RA 77

33a.2а. Please, describe what are the specific services available? ______DN/RA…77

SECTION IV. ECONOMIC FUTURE

33. How do you feel economic opportunities for your business will change in the next 2 years? Get much better 1 Get somewhat worse 4 Get somewhat better 2 Get much worse 5 No change 3  q. 35 DN/RA 7  q. 35

34a. What is this feeling based on? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Changes in your business resources or 1 Changes in government [SPECIFY] 5 opportunities [SPECIFY] Changes in local economy [SPECIFY] 2 Changes in degree/intensity of conflict 6 Changes in services provided by central and 3 Other: [SPECIFY]______7 local governments [SPECIFY] Changes in prices of goods and services related 4 DN/RA 7 to your business [SPECIFY] 7

IF Q.34а = 1 (BUSINESS RESOURCES OR OPPORTUNITIES) 34a. 1: You said that your business resources or opportunities would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Changes in level of investments 1 Changes in access to workforce 4 Changes in access to new markets 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Changes in access to finance 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.34а = 2 (LOCAL ECONOMY) 34a. 2: You said that local economy would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Changes in number of jobs available 1 Changes in average income 4 Changes in opportunities for self-employment 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Changes in opportunities for business expansion 3 DN/RA 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 78 7

IF Q.34а = 3 (PUBLIC SERVICES) 34a. 3: You said that services provided by central and local governments would change. Changes in what services are you expecting. [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Water supply/sewerage 1 Public safety 4 Trash collection/disposal 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Road maintenance 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.34а = 4 (PRICES OF GOODS AND SERVICES) 34a. 4: You said that prices of goods and services related to your business would change. Changes in prices of what goods and services are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]:

Inputs, Packaging 1 Taxes 8 Equipment 2 Fees, Licenses 9 Transport 3 Wages 10 Petrol 4 Electricity 5 Heating oil 6 Rents 7 Other: [SPECIFY]______11 DN/RA 77

IF Q.34а = 5 (GOVERNMENT) 34a. 5: You said that government would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Newly elected officials 1 Changes in difficulty of administrative 5 procedures Changes in policies 2 Changes in attention of national 6 government officials to the region Changes in in budget priorities 3 Other: [SPECIFY]______7 Changes in in performance of local 4 DN/RA 7 government staff 7

IF Q.34а = 7 (OTHER) 34a. 7: You said that you expect other changes. Describe which ones [SPECIFY]: ______DN/RA …77

34. How do you feel the economy in your oblast will change in the next 2 years? Get much better 1 Get somewhat worse 4 Get somewhat better 2 Get much worse 5 No change 3  q. 36 DN/RA 7  q. 36

35a. What is this feeling based on? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Changes in business resources or opportunities 1 Changes in government [SPECIFY] 5 of others in oblast [SPECIFY] Changes in local economy [SPECIFY] 2 Changes in degree/intensity of conflict 6 Changes in services provided by central and 3 Other: [SPECIFY]______7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 79 local governments [SPECIFY] Changes in prices of goods and services for 4 DN/RA 7 businesses [SPECIFY] 7 IF Q.35а = 1 (BUSINESS RESOURCES OR OPPORTUNITIES) 35а. 1: You said that business resources or opportunities of others in oblast would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Changes in level of investments 1 Changes in access to workforce 4 Changes in access to new markets 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Changes in access to finance 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.35а = 2 (LOCAL ECONOMY) 35a. 2: You said that local economy would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Changes in number of jobs available 1 Changes in average income 4 Changes in opportunities for self-employment 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Changes in opportunities for business expansion 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.35а = 3 (PUBLIC SERVICES) 35a. 3: You said that services provided by central and local governments would change. Changes in what services are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Water supply/sewerage 1 Public safety 4 Trash collection/disposal 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Road maintenance 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.35а = 4 (PRICES OF GOODS AND SERVICES) 35a. 4: You said that prices of goods and services for businesses would change. Please, specify what goods and services. [SPECIFY]:

Inputs, Packaging 1 Taxes 8 Equipment 2 Fees, Licenses 9 Transport 3 Wages 10 Petrol 4 Electricity 5 Heating oil 6 Other: [SPECIFY]______11 Rents 7 DN/RA 77

IF Q.35а = 5 (GOVERNMENT) 35a. 5: You said that government would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Newly elected officials 1 Changes in difficulty of administrative 5 procedures Changes in policies 2 Changes in attention of national 6 government officials to the region Changes in in budget priorities 3 Other: [SPECIFY]______7 Changes in in performance of local 4 DN/RA 7 government staff 7

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 80

IF Q.35а = 7 (OTHER) 35a. 7: You said that you expect other changes. Describe which ones [SPECIFY]: ______DN/RA …77 36. Do you think businesses will stay in this region over the next five years? Yes 1 No 2 DN/RA 7  q. 37

36a. What is this feeling based on? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY] Changes in business resources or opportunities 1 Changes in government [SPECIFY] 5 in oblast [SPECIFY] Changes in local economy [SPECIFY] 2 Changes in degree/intensity of conflict 6 Changes in services provided by central and 3 Other: [SPECIFY]______7 local governments [SPECIFY] Changes in prices of goods and services for 4 DN/RA 7 businesses [SPECIFY] 7

IF Q.36а = 1 (BUSINESS RESOURCES OR OPPORTUNITIES) 36а. 1: You said that business resources or opportunities in oblast would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Changes in level of investments 1 Changes in access to workforce 4 Changes in access to new markets 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Changes in access to finance 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.36а = 2 (LOCAL ECONOMY) 36a. 2: You said that local economy would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Changes in number of jobs available 1 Changes in average income 4 Changes in opportunities for self-employment 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Changes in opportunities for business expansion 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.36а = 3 (PUBLIC SERVICES) 36a. 3: You said that services provided by central and local governments would change. Changes in what services are you expecting. [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Water supply/sewerage 1 Public safety 4 Trash collection/disposal 2 Other: [SPECIFY]______5 Road maintenance 3 DN/RA 7 7

IF Q.36а = 4 (PRICES OF GOODS AND SERVICES) 36a. 4: You said that prices of goods and services for businesses would change. Please, specify what goods and services. [SPECIFY]:

Inputs, Packaging 1 Taxes 8 Equipment 2 Fees, Licenses 9

ERA_AS 2020–2021 Economic Resilience Study in Eastern Ukraine, February 2021 | Page 81 Transport 3 Wages 10 Petrol 4 Electricity 5 Heating oil 6 Other: [SPECIFY]______11 Rents 7 DN/RA 77 IF Q.36а = 5 (GOVERNMENT) 36a. 5: You said that government would change. What changes are you expecting? [SELECT ALL THAT APPLY]: Newly elected officials 1 Changes in difficulty of administrative 5 procedures Changes in policies 2 Changes in attention of national 6 government officials to the region Changes in in budget priorities 3 Other: [SPECIFY]______7 Changes in in performance of local 4 DN/RA 7 government staff 7

IF Q.36а = 7 (OTHER) 36a. 7: You said that you expect other changes. Describe which ones [SPECIFY]: ______DN/RA …77

37. How confident are you that the local government is providing incentives or designing policies that support the private sector? Not at all 1 Strongly 4 A little 2 Extremely 5 Fairly 3 DN/RA 7  q. 38

37a. What is this feeling based on? [SPECIFY] ______DN/RA…77

38. Have you heard of information campaign «Схід можливостей»? Yes 1 No 2 DN/RA 7

IF Q.38 = 1 (YES) 38а. What comes up in your mind when you hear «Схід можливостей»? [SPECIFY]: ______DN/RA…77

Thank you very much for your time.

Please, could you give me your phone number and / or email address for data verification purposes. Phone: (+380)______Email: ______@______

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