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Tobacco Industry Research Analysts COMMENT

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Tobacco Industry Research Analysts COMMENT 27 July 2016 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Tobacco (Personal Products (Japan)) / MARKET WEIGHT Tobacco industry Research Analysts COMMENT Masashi Mori 81 3 4550 9695 [email protected] Examining the state of Japan’s “heat-not-burn cigarette” market ■ Two products in focus: In Japan’s cigarette market, much of the focus at present is on two type of “heat-not-burn cigarette.” One is iQOS, from Philip Morris International (PMI). This product has made strong gains in market share since going on sale nationwide this April. The other product is Ploom TECH, launched on a trial basis by Japan Tobacco (JT, 2914) in March. For now, iQOS is garnering much of the attention, having launched before Ploom TECH. That said, both products are gaining in popularity and are constantly in short supply. Recognition is growing rapidly for this new genre known as heat-not-burn cigarettes, and we expect market penetration to accelerate. While it is too early to forecast the future for these products, we think they have the potential to become game-changers. In this report, we outline the situation at present. ■ PMI’s 2Q results: Announced on 19 July US time, PMI’s 2Q results served to underscore iQOS' growing popularity. In Japan, iQOS (HeatSticks) reached a national share 2.2% (2.7% in the final week of June), up from 0.8% in 1Q. As positives, PMI noted that (1) the device is now cannibalizing about 35% of the company's cigarette portfolio in Japan, down from around 40% as of September 2015; and (2) many smokers are "up-trading" to iQOS from cheaper brands. Based on PMI’s estimates on iQOS’ market share, it seems clear the device has taken some share away from traditional cigarettes. In Japan, PMI continues to undertake clinical trials on iQOS with a view to proving that the health risks are lower. Also, Philip Morris Japan president Paul Riley has been quoted as saying that consultations with the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare and Ministry of Finance indicate that both have a great deal of interest in iQOS. It is evident that PMI considers iQOS an important part of its business strategy in Japan. ■ High profit margins: Under current Japanese legislation, heat-not-burn cigarettes are categorized as “pipe tobacco” and thus the tobacco excise tax is low. With every sale of a ¥460 pack of JT cigarettes, we calculate that JT’s take is around 29% in the case of traditional cigarettes, and roughly 75% in the case of heat-not-burn cigarettes. Even if the government raises the tax rate for heat- not-burn cigarettes, there should still be improvement in the product mix. We presume there is also a relatively high price on every unit weight of tobacco packed into each heat stick or capsule. ■ Outlook for JT: Japan is an important market for JT, generating 40% of total profits. In our view, iQOS could pose quite a threat to JT if it continues gathering momentum in this manner. On the other hand, JT’s Ploom TECH is also gaining in popularity; based on personal experience, we find that both products have their merits and disadvantages. In the near term, we think JT will remain on the back foot, but if JT can ensure sufficient supply we look for benefits in terms of mix improvement. Also, in some ways we believe the current market environment is not bad for JT, in that it is conducive to pricing merits in the future. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 27 July 2016 Comparison of iQOS and Ploom TECH In Japan’s cigarette market, much of the focus at present is on two types of “heat-not-burn cigarette.” One is iQOS, from Philip Morris International (PMI). This product has made astounding gains in market share since going on sale nationwide this April; as we describe later, this was confirmed for the first time in PMI’s 2Q 2016 results. The other product is Ploom TECH, launched on a trial basis by Japan Tobacco (JT) in March. Currently, Ploom TECH is only available in Fukuoka and online. For now, iQOS is garnering much of the attention, having launched before Ploom TECH. That said, both products are gaining in popularity and are constantly in short supply. Recognition is growing rapidly for this new genre known as heat-not-burn cigarettes, and we expect market penetration to accelerate. We have three queries: (1) Is this new trend merely a passing boom or a sign that structural change is about to take place? (2) Will iQOS’s rapid growth exert an adverse impact on the traditional cigarette market and on JT? (3) We note that Japan has no regulations as yet governing heat-not-burn cigarettes. What approach will the government take? At this stage, there are no clear answers to any of these questions, as it remains difficult to establish reasonable forecasts. There is no denying, though, that these products could change the face of Japan's cigarette market. We hope this report concisely sums up the situation at present. Figure 1: Lineup of iQOS-related products Figure 2: Lineup of Ploom TECH-related products Source: Image by Credit Suisse Source: Image by Credit Suisse Both products belong to the genre of heat-not-burn cigarettes and are fundamentally similar in structure. In each case, a proprietary device is used to heat tobacco leaves at a temperature that will not burn them, delivering a tobacco-flavored vapor. Because the tobacco does not burn, there is no smoke, in addition to which PMI claims that toxic contaminants such as tar are greatly reduced (some would beg to differ, as there remains insufficient scientific evidence to support this). Popularity is growing, as the risk to health is said to be less than for traditional cigarettes, for non-smokers also. Some Japanese companies are reported to be offering financial incentives to employees switching from traditional cigarettes to the heat-not-burn type. The e-cigarettes found in Europe and the US heat a nicotine-laced liquid to produce a vapor. They are comparatively cheap and available in a variety of flavors, and as such have been gaining in popularity. By contrast, both of the Japanese products use real tobacco leaves in place of a nicotine-based liquid. In Japan, e-cigarettes using a nicotine- based liquid come under the Pharmaceutical Affairs Law governing medical devices and pharmaceuticals. As such, there are numerous restrictions on their manufacture and sale. For example, they can be sold by pharmacies, but not in convenience stores. Thus in Tobacco industry 2 27 July 2016 comparison with the West, as things stand now there is very little scope for expansion in the Japanese market. Note that with some exceptions, even products regulated under the Pharmaceutical Affairs Law can be legally imported by individuals for their own use. Even so, e-cigarettes' share of the Japanese market is extremely small. By comparison, heat- not-burn cigarettes use real tobacco and are treated in the same manner as traditional cigarettes. This means they can be sold in regular tobacco shops, convenience stores and so forth. Below, we compare the two products, including some personal observations. In both cases, it remains difficult at this stage to purchase the proprietary devices, which attract high prices on online auction sites. While iQOS delivers a flavor similar to that from traditional cigarettes, it is somewhat annoying that the holder must be recharged after every HeatStick smoked (14 puffs). Ploom TECH can be used for longer, and has the added advantage of producing no odor. On the other hand, the flavor is different to that of a traditional cigarette. It is difficult to rate one over the other, as both products have their merits and disadvantages. The author personally uses all three types of cigarette (including the traditional form) depending on surroundings. Figure 3: Comparison of iQOS and Ploom TECH Item iQos (PMI) Ploom TECH (JT) Heating method Tobacco is heated directly Tobacco is heated via capsule Trial launch in November 2014 in Nagoya; available in 12 Available since March 2016 in Fukuoka and online (device Launch prefectures from September 2015 and nationwide from April sales were suspended in early March but resumed from late 2016 June) Share in Japan 2.7% at end-June 2016 (5% in Tokyo); around Market share, user numbers N/A 600,000 users (100,000 in February) Type of tobacco Four types, all Marlboro-brand (two regular and two menthol) Three types, all Mevius-brand (one regular and two menthol) Price for pack of heat sticks ¥460 (20 sticks filled with tobacco) ¥460 (five capsules filled with tobacco, one cartridge) Price of starter kit (tobacco ¥9,980 (available at discount price of ¥4,600 until end-July ¥4,000 (pre-ordering possible between 23 June and 7 July for vaporizer) 2016) ¥2,000) Starter kit resale price on Yahoo Around ¥16,000 Around ¥8,500 Auction Holder (¥4,980), pocket charger (¥4,480), dedicated cleaner (¥ Battery (¥1,500), USB charger (¥900) , AC adaptor (¥900), Other accessories 680), AC adaptor (¥880), USB cable (¥480) carry case (¥1,100) 12-month warranty (six months, extendable to
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