FOREIGN POLICY of UKRAINE 2009/2010 STRATEGIC ASSESSMENTS, FORECASTS and PRIORITIES Annual Strategic Review
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Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 1 FOREIGN POLICY OF UKRAINE 2009/2010 STRATEGIC ASSESSMENTS, FORECASTS AND PRIORITIES Annual Strategic Review Edited by Professor G. M. Perepelytsia Kyiv Stylos Publishing House 2011 Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 2 Assessments presented in this Annual Strategic Review are those of the authors and reflect exclusively authors’ opinion on the events of international life and foreign policy of Ukraine Foreign policy of Ukraine – 2009/2010: Strategic Assessments, Forecasts and Priorities / Edited by G. M. Perepelytsia. – Кyiv: Stylos Publishing House, 2009. – 320 p. ISBN 9789661930703 The Annual Strategic Review of the Foreign Policy Research Institute does not represent the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (MFAU). The goal of this publication is to provide comprehensive analysis of Ukraine’s foreign policy, describe key trends inherent to Ukrainian foreign poli cy over the last year and forecast options for their further development, as well as spell out the priority areas for the implementation of the foreignpolicy course of Ukraine. This Annual Strategic Review is aimed at encouraging politicians and the scientific community of Ukraine to engage into discussion and seek the ways to resolve foreign policy problems and refine foreignpolicy course of Ukraine The Annual Strategic Review is intended for a wide range of Ukrainian and foreign experts, scientists, Ukrainian diplomats and Embassies, as well as foreign diplomatic missions and representative offices in Ukraine and readers interested in foreign policy issues and international relations. © Foreing Policy Research Institute, 2011 © Stylos Publishing House, 2011 ISBN 9789661930703 Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 3 Table of contents Preface....................................................................5 G. M. Perepelytsia Chapter I. National and international context of Ukraine’s Foreign Policy ................................7 § 1. Trends of Ukraine’s Foreign Policy in 2009–2010..........9 O. V. Potyekhin, I. Y. Todorov § 2. Ukraine in international economic cooperation ............43 V. M. Movchan Chapter II. Security dimension of Ukraine’s Foreign Policy ..............................67 § 1. Forward into the past: from integration to «constructive» partnership with NATO ..................69 Y. A. Tsyrfa § 2. A nonbloc Ukraine in the European security system – what place to occupy?......................89 G. M. Perepelytsia § 3. Ukraine in the international regimes of arms control: a year of achievements and hopes ......115 R. M. Nimchynskyy, V. A. Matsko Chapter III. Strategic directions of the Foreign Policy of Ukraine ..................................................131 § 1. The EUUkraine political dialog ..............................133 O. I. Shapovalova § 2. Policy for speedy rapprochement with Russia: is double asymmetric integration possible?................151 G. M. Perepelytsia § 3. Ukraine’s economic relations with the EU and Russia ....209 V. M. Movchan Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 4 Chapter IV. Ukraine in bilateral international relations ......237 § 1. Ukraine in the system of bilateral relations with the leading European states ............................239 O. I. Shapovalova § 2. Ukraine’s relations with the USA and Canada............269 G. M. Perepelytsia § 3. Ukraine – China relations ......................................279 L. O. Leshchenko § 4. Ukraine’s relations with the states of the Middle East, Asia and Africa ........................283 § 5. Ukraine’s relations with the states of Latin America and the AsiaPacific region ............295 Afterword ............................................................307 Annex. Rollcall vote on the bill about ratification of the Agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (№ 0165) – as a whole ................313 About authors ........................................................319 Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 5 Preface The publication of the Annual Strategic Review «Foreign Policy of Ukraine: Strategic Assessments, Forecasts and Priorities» by the Foreign Policy Research Institute has become a wellestablished event. It attracts great attention from Ukrainian experts, diplomats, and politicians and from the broader international community – everyone who is keen to know more about the current and future prospects of Ukraine’s foreign policy. This edition is unique because it provides unbiased analysis of international events, foreign policy decisions, suc cesses and problems in the implementation of the country’s foreign pol icy course in 2009/2010. The value of this Annual Strategic Review lies in the way it enables the readers to assess the effectiveness of the implementation of Ukraine’s foreign policy interests in the international arena, as well as to define these interests in different regions of the world. It covers the challenges and trends that became apparent in the international com munity and foreign policy of Ukraine in 2009/2010. The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of Ukraine’s place and role in regional and global security systems. The publication provides a comprehensive analysis of economic and security aspects of Ukraine’s foreign policy course, analyses its strate gic direction, provides detailed characteristics of the status of Ukraine Russia relations and trends for their further development, and it pro vides recommendations for solving a number of problems and achieving the objectives of European integration of Ukraine. The Annual Strategic Review also examines and assesses Ukraine’s bilateral relations. It provides information on the status of key bilater al relations, for example, the development of cooperation with the lead ing EU Member States, the USA and Canada, Russia and the countries Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 6 6 Foreign policy of Ukraine – 2009/2010 that are regional leaders in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Asian and Pacific Region. Therefore, the Annual Strategic Review is essentially a compre hensive reference document which highlights the major foreign policy events that took place in 2009/2010 and provides a comprehensive analysis of the key aspects of Ukrainian foreign policy. The annual initiation of this publication is clear evidence of Ukraine’s aspiration to transparent and stable foreign policy in line with international democratic standards. The complexity of objectives faced by Ukrainian diplomacy requires open discussion, critical rethinking and wellbalanced assessments of the foreign policy of Ukraine. The Annual Strategic Review «Foreign Policy of Ukraine – 2009/2010: Strategic Assessments, Forecasts and Priorities» aims to facilitate these processes. It combines scientific analysis in the form of conclusions and evaluations by outstanding specialists in international affairs, and information materials. We believe that it will provide interesting reading for diplomats, experts in international relations and for Ukrainian and international communities in general. Sincerely, G. M. Perepelytsia Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 7 Chapter I NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT OF UKRAINE’S FOREIGN POLICY Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 8 Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011 14:23 Page 9 § 1. Trends Of Ukraine’s Foreign Policy In 2009–2010 During 2009, the foreign policy of Ukraine remained «a prisoner» of internal political processes and crises. Political struggle in terms of preelection Presidential campaign complicated the realization of effective and stable foreign policy, and weakened the country’s posi tions in key international directions. For over seven months the Ministry of Foreign Affairs remained without a legitimate head. This created an internal imbalance which had an impact on foreign policy making. As well as the MFA, there were a number of other centers of decision making in the foreign policy sphere: the Main Directorate for Foreign Policy of the Secretariat of the President of Ukraine, the Bureau for European and EuroAtlantic Integration of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. These factors determined some changes in the influence rating of institutions and groups of elites on the foreign policy of Ukraine1. Comparing the increase of influence of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (that did not assist the improvement of its effectiveness), the contribution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in forming of the for eign policy course of the state remained low (though it increased in five times comparatively to the low base level in the previous year) (Table 1.1). However, in 2010 the foreign policy of Ukraine was radically transformed. It primarily reflected the internal political changes – the accession to power in February of a new President, leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych. He by no means strived to reach 1 This analysis is based on the results of experts’ survey conducted by Centre for Peace, Conversion and Foreign Policy of Ukraine – CPCFPU (head – О. Potekhin) according to a standard methodology among four groups of people involved in the analysis, planning, and expertise of foreign and security policy of Ukraine and adoption of political decisions (employees of state authorities and state analytical agencies, military elite, NGO specialists, journalists). Yearbook_2010_Engl.qxd 04.11.2011