october 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 10

Combating Terrorism Center at West Point CTC Sentinel Objective . Relevant . Rigorous

Contents A Profile of the TTP’s New

FEATURE ARTICLE 1 A Profile of the TTP’s New Leader: Leader: Hakimullah Mehsud By Mukhtar A. Khan By Mukhtar A. Khan

Reports 4 The October 2009 Terrorist Attack in Italy and its Wider Implications By Federico Bordonaro 7 LIFG Revisions Unlikely to Reduce Jihadist Violence By Alison Pargeter 9 Rethinking Strategies to Secure U.S. Critical Infrastructure By Charles Faddis 12 Israel as an Al-Qa`ida Target: Sorting Rhetoric From Reality By Matthew Levitt 15 Understanding History’s Seven Stages of Jihad By Sebastian L.v. Gorka 17 Mao Tse-tung and the Search for 21st Century Counterinsurgency By Thomas A. Marks Hakimullah Mehsud speaks with reporters in ’s Orakzai Agency in November 2008. - Photo by A. Majeed/AFP/Getty Images n october 17, 2009, Pakistan’s after the arrival of U.S. Secretary of State 20 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity military launched a new Hillary Clinton in Islamabad. 24 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts offensive in South Waziristan

Agency, the stronghold of Pakistan’s military offensive is OTehrik-i- Pakistan (TTP). The significant because it follows on the heels offensive comes in the wake of a series of the August 2009 Predator drone strike of major attacks launched by suspected that killed , the TTP’s TTP militants, including an October 5 leader. Baitullah’s death left the TTP in suicide attack on a United Nations office disarray, as he had not established a clear in Islamabad, and the audacious October succession plan. After three weeks marked 10 assault on the military’s General by significant infighting, Hakimullah About the CTC Sentinel Headquarters in Rawalpindi.1 In the Mehsud was finally confirmed as the new The Combating Terrorism Center is an days before the October 17 offensive, the leader of the TTP.2 With Hakimullah at independent educational and research TTP warned Pakistan’s government that the helm of the TTP, the group may reach institution based in the Department of Social any assault on South Waziristan would further into Pakistan’s Punjab Province Sciences at the Military Academy, result in increased attacks on civilian due to Hakimullah’s links to Punjabi- West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses and military targets in Pakistan. On based militant networks; this may allow the Center’s global network of scholars and October 28, the TTP seemed to deliver the group to further solidify ties with practitioners to understand and confront on its threat. The group was blamed for local insurgent outfits that have been contemporary threats posed by terrorism and a powerful car bomb that killed more other forms of political violence. than 100 people in Peshawar just hours 2 Shortly after his appointment, there was speculation that Hakimullah was killed as a result of infighting. It appears, The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, 1 Shaiq Hussain and Karin Brulliard, “In Pakistan, Mili- however, that it was his brother who died. For more, see the Department of the Army, or any other agency tants Attack Army Bastion,” Washington Post, October 11, Mushtaq Yusufzai, “Baitullah’s Death Finally Confirmed of the U.S. Government. 2009; “Taliban Claims Responsibility For UN Pakistan by Taliban,” The News, August 26, 2009; “New Taliban Blast,” Agence France-Presse, October 5, 2009. Chief Meets Reporters,” BBC, October 5, 2009.

1 october 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 10 traditionally focused on neighboring Unlike his predecessors, Hakimullah through Pakistan; to prove his point, Kashmir and India. Moreover, never had the opportunity to fight he arrived at the interview driving an Hakimullah could move the TTP in a against the Soviet Union in armor-plated Humvee that he claimed more sectarian direction as a result of because of his young age. He worked was commandeered from an Afghanistan- his association with anti-Shi`a militant as a driver for Baitullah Mehsud when bound NATO convoy in Khyber Agency.9 leaders. These factors mean that the Baitullah emerged as a Pakistani During the interview, Hakimullah said TTP could become increasingly radical Taliban leader in 2004 and became his his men destroyed more than 600 trucks and dangerous under Hakimullah’s chief spokesman in October 2007 under and shipping containers in Peshawar and leadership. On the other hand, Khyber Agency destined for NATO in Hakimullah’s sectarian and potentially Afghanistan.10 more aggressive agenda could spark “Hakimullah’s anti-Shi`a infighting within the TTP and cause the agenda is an outgrowth of More recently, after rumors of his loosely structured network to split into death, Hakimullah again appeared factions. Given these new challenges and his long association with before journalists on October 4, 2009.11 broad lack of knowledge about the TTP, Qari Hussain Mehsud, During the meeting, Hakimullah ended it is critical to understand the character speculation of his death, and he also of the group’s decision-makers. This his cousin and a TTP warned that he would avenge the killing article profiles Hakimullah Mehsud, commander.” of Baitullah Mehsud. Hakimullah likely who has now assumed the mantle of used the press conference to improve one of the most dangerous groups morale among his followers; two other threatening Pakistan. key Taliban leaders, Qari Waliur his alias name of Zulfiqar Mehsud. Rahman and Qari Hussain Mehsud, Personal History He married two women, one in South were also at the meeting.12 Estimated to be 28-years-old and Waziristan from the Mehsud tribe and a approximately six feet in height, second wife, from the Mamunzai tribe, Military Capabilities Hakimullah has become a household name in Orakzai Agency.6 During his time as Recognizing Hakimullah’s value, in the region.3 He achieved prominence Baitullah’s driver and chief spokesman, Baitullah assigned Kurram, Orakzai and in November 2008 after he introduced Hakimullah reportedly served as a Khyber tribal agencies to his command himself to journalists in Orakzai Agency confidant to the former TTP leader. in early 2008. By the end of that year, of the Federally Administered Tribal Hakimullah managed to gain significant Areas (FATA) and displayed his access Extensive Media Contacts control in these agencies, which some to heavy weaponry. He grew up in South Hakimullah embraced his role as analysts argue is evidence of his Waziristan’s Kotki, and his original Baitullah’s chief spokesman, and he leadership and military capabilities.13 name is Jamshed.4 He is also known by quickly established strong relationships In these agencies, Hakimullah gained his alias name, “Zulfiqar Mehsud.” with journalists. Unlike Baitullah, who influence by controlling strategic refused to be photographed due to smuggling and supply routes. Moreover, Hakimullah belongs to the Eshangai religious concerns about the capture of he assassinated potential opponents.14 clan of the Mehsud tribe, which is a less human imagery, Hakimullah has been influential clan than Baitullah’s Shobi willing to pose for photographs, and he One tactic employed by Hakimullah Khel. Like other Pakistani Taliban recognizes the value of the media as a to gain power in these agencies was predecessors such as Baitullah Mehsud, propaganda tool. to exploit sectarian rivalries between and Nek Mohammad the Sunni and Shi`a sects. This was Wazir, Hakimullah never completed In November 2008, for example, particularly evident in Orakzai and his religious education. He attended Hakimullah invited more than a dozen Kurram agencies, where he targeted the a madrasa in Shahu village of Hangu journalists to his stronghold in Orakzai Shi`a community indiscriminately and District in the North-West Frontier Agency. During the meeting, he identified sent a wave of fear throughout the Shi`a Province (NWFP), but quit his studies Mullah Omar as his supreme leader, and population in Pakistan.15 Hakimullah’s early and joined the ranks of the Taliban said that Usama bin Ladin’s al-Qa`ida anti-Shi`a agenda is an outgrowth in Afghanistan in the late 1990s.5 network was his ally.7 He criticized of his long association with Qari Hakimullah received military training Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari for Hussain Mehsud, his cousin and a TTP during the last few years of the Taliban ceding sovereignty to the United States commander. Before joining the TTP, regime in Afghanistan. After the fall and vowed revenge for Zardari joining 8 of the Taliban in 2001, he reportedly the “infidels.” Hakimullah boasted 9 Rahimullah Yusufzai, “Hakimullah Mehsud Unveils returned to Pakistan’s Waziristan. about disrupting NATO supply routes Himself to Media,” The News, November 30, 2008. 10 Amir Mir, “The Top 10 Most Wanted Jihadis,” The 3 Information on his personal statistics was acquired 6 Riffatullah Orakzai, “Taliban’s New Leader: A Fiery News, September 1, 2009. through speaking with journalists who have interviewed and Emotional Commander,” BBC , August 22, 11 “New Taliban Chief Meets Reporters.” him. 2009. 12 Ibid. 4 Zahir Shah Sherazi, “Hakimullah a Fiercely Ambitious 7 Amir Mir, “A Young Turk Takes Over TTP, Ringing 13 Sherazi. Militant,” Dawn, August 27, 2009. Alarm Bells,” The News, August 28, 2009. 14 “Profile: Young Slayer Takes Up Reins of Pakistani 5 Alex Altman, “Hakimullah Mehsud: The New Head of 8 Imtiaz Gul, “Will Hakimullah Fit Baitullah’s Shoes?” Taliban,” Deutsche Press Agency, August 28, 2009. Pakistan’s Taliban,” Time Magazine, August 28, 2009. Pulse, September 3, 2009. 15 Ibid.

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Qari Hussain was an active member of resolution of their disputes in Shari`a the picture, the TTP must be concerned the banned anti-Shi`a group Sipah-i- courts.18 He then levied jizya (protection about future cooperation from Maulvi Sahaba and its militant wing, Lashkar-i- tax) on the Sikh and Hindu communities. Nazir in South Waziristan and Hafiz Jhangvi.16 Hakimullah reportedly relied This decision is unique and significant Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan. On on Qari Hussain’s access to suicide in the history of the tribal areas because August 17, 2009, more than a dozen bombers to gain control of Orakzai, the Sikh and Hindu communities have supporters of the Maulvi Nazir group Kurram and Khyber agencies.17 Qari lived unharmed in FATA for centuries were gunned down in the Laddha area Hussain, for example, is considered one under the tribal traditions. Yet the new of South Waziristan allegedly by Uzbek imposition of Shari`a forced them either fighters part of Baitullah Mehsud’s to leave the FATA region or submit to faction.23 The TTP is also facing challenges “The October 5 suicide the dictates of the TTP and pay the jizya. from the Abdullah Mehsud Group in attack on a United Nations Consequently, reports state that many South Waziristan and from Turkistan minorities have already left the area Bhittani in Tank District of the NWFP. office in Islamabad, and others plan to follow suit.19 and the October 10 Pakistan’s government and intelligence TTP More Prone to Splintering? agencies are aware of these differences, assault on the military’s It is clear that Hakimullah Mehsud and they have been working to court General Headquarters poses a serious threat to Pakistan and tribal groups. The government’s goal U.S. interests. It is believed that his is to keep as many tribal groups as in Rawalpindi, show militia includes 8,000 fighters and possible out of its conflict with the TTP, that the TTP remains several hundred suicide bombers.20 with the hope that they will be able to Nevertheless, there are some indications eliminate the hardcore anti-Pakistan highly effective under that Hakimullah’s appointment as the and Salafist leadership. This appears Hakimullah’s leadership.” new head of the TTP could cause further to be the goal of Pakistan’s offensive splits in the group. in South Waziristan, which went into full force on October 17. The increasing Within the TTP, for example, there number of drone strikes has further of the TTP’s most important assets due are differences between Salafists and shaken the Pakistani Taliban movement to his training of suicide bombers; he is . The Salafist members of the and disrupted its militant activity.24 often called Ustad-i-Fidayin, or Trainer TTP practice a harsher interpretation of Suicide Bombers. of Islam and consider the Shi`a infidels. Conclusion followers, on the other hand, The TTP has suffered a number of losses The importance of this relationship is are more flexible in comparison and in the last few months. In addition to the evident in the wave of attacks that hit generally do not support killing Shi`a killing of Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP’s Pakistan in October 2009. On October 15, unless they themselves are attacked chief spokesman, , was Lahore, the capital of Punjab Province, by them. Hakimullah Mehsud, Qari apprehended by authorities on August was assaulted by approximately three Hussain and the TTP spokesman Azam 17.25 , a well-known teams of militants, leaving more than Tariq are more inclined toward Salafi- spokesman from the Swat faction of 30 people dead. The TTP claimed , and their past affiliations the group, was arrested along with credit for the attacks. Analysts believe with the anti-Shi`a Lashkar-i-Jhangvi another militant leader, Mahmud Khan, that the TTP’s links to Punjab-based have made them highly sectarian.21 on September 10.26 Sher Mohammad militants formerly (or currently) part Qasab, a feared Pakistani Taliban leader of groups such as Lashkar-i-Jhangvi are Baitullah Mehsud, on the other hand, known for beheading opponents, died in responsible for these strikes that are was known for his ability to coalesce an government custody on September 20.27 increasingly occurring in the heart of array of diverse groups under a single Pakistan. It is likely that Hakimullah’s leadership. This leadership allowed him ziristan,” The News, February 23, 2009. relationship with Qari Hussain to overcome disagreements with Hafiz 23 This was seen as retaliation for a 2007 incident when contributes to the TTP’s capability to Gul Bahadur and Maulvi Nazir, while Maulvi Nazir killed and expelled several Uzbek militants strike deeper inside Pakistan. continuing to host Uzbek fighters linked from the area. See “17 of Maulvi Nazir Group Killed in 22 to al-Qa`ida. Yet with Baitullah out of Tehsil Ladha,” Geo TV, August 17, 2009. In addition to targeting the Shi`a 24 “Pakistan Drone Attacks Kill 10,” BBC, August 11, community, Hakimullah has undertaken 18 Caroline Wadhams and Colin Cookman, “Faces of 2009. other sectarian actions. In December Pakistan’s Militant Leaders,” Center for American Prog- 25 “Two Pakistani Taliban Leaders Captured,” CNN, Au- 2008, for example, Hakimullah ress, July 22, 2009. gust 18, 2009. imposed Shari`a in Orakzai Agency 19 “Sikhs, Hindus Dread Taliban Tax in Northwest Paki- 26 For a profile of Muslim Khan, see Imtiaz Ali, “The and demanded local tribesmen seek the stan,” Dawn, July 27, 2009. Taliban’s Versatile Spokesman: A Profile of Muslim 20 Baitullah Mehsud gave Hakimullah control of 8,000 Khan,” CTC Sentinel 2:2 (2009). For information on his 16 For more on Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, see Arif Jamal, “A militants when he assigned him Orakzai, Khyber and arrest, see Ismail Khan, “Swat Taliban Mouthpiece, Top Profile of Pakistan’s Lashkar-i-Jhangvi,” CTC Sentinel 2:9 Kurram tribal agencies. For more, see Amir Mir. Commander Captured,” Dawn, September 12, 2009. (2009). 21 Hamid Mir, “Capital Talk Show,” Geo TV, September 27 Robert Kennedy, “Captured Pakistan Taliban Com- 17 Kamran Khan, “Aaj Kamran Khan Kay Saath,” Geo 29, 2009. mander Dies in Jail,” Associated Press, September 20, TV, August 11, 2009. 22 Yousuf Ali, “Taliban Form New Alliance in Wa- 2009.

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Despite these losses, the TTP clearly The October 2009 Terrorist Muslim religious leaders have been remains a dangerous organization. strictly monitored in recent years due to The October 5 suicide attack on a Attack in Italy and its fears of radicalization in mosques. United Nations office in Islamabad, Wider Implications and the October 10 assault on the This article will first describe the military’s General Headquarters in By Federico Bordonaro operative and tactical aspects of the Rawalpindi, show that the TTP remains October 12 terrorist attack and report the highly effective under Hakimullah’s on october 12, 2009, at approximately findings of the ongoing investigations. leadership. These two attacks have 7:45 AM, a Libyan citizen named It will then briefly illustrate the recent caused an irreparable loss of confidence Mohamed Game1 attacked an Italian history of Islamist terrorist threats in the Pakistan Army. Moreover, the Army barracks in Milan with an in Italy before analyzing the wider October 15 attacks in Lahore show that improvised explosive device similar implications of the seemingly minor Hakimullah retains strong links with to the type used by terrorists in the incident in Milan. jihadist groups with access to Punjab London Underground attacks of July 7, Province. In the face of the government’s 2005.2 It is believed that the attack was The Dynamics of the Milan Terrorist Attack major offensive in South Waziristan an attempted suicide bombing, although According to initial reports, Mohamed Agency, TTP spokesman Azam Tariq Game survived the explosion due to poor Game tried to enter the “Santa Barbara” vowed that the group would continue construction of the IED. Nevertheless, barracks by waiting near the facility such strikes if military operations the bomb was powerful enough to injure until the arrival of an authorized against them were not ceased.28 The him severely. By October 19, Game was vehicle enabled him to follow it through assassination of a Pakistani brigadier still hospitalized and in a coma, having the automatic gate. Once the gate amid heavy rush hour traffic in lost one hand and the use of both eyes. opened, he tried to reach the core area Islamabad on October 22 could be a sign The IED’s blast also lightly injured the of the barracks, but was immediately of a new TTP assassination campaign.29 Italian soldier who managed to stop confronted by an armed soldier, Game’s attempt to access the inhabited Corporal Guido La Veneziana, whose It appears that the TTP is currently at sections of the barracks. unit is currently deployed in Herat, a crossroads, and its future could move Afghanistan. Before the soldier could in two directions. Either the TTP will After five days of investigations, Italy’s physically block him, Game reportedly successfully escalate its activities and intelligence services believe that Game detonated the IED. The device, however, increasingly make use of its Punjabi and his apprehended accomplices—the was not prepared properly, and the network to shake Pakistan, or it could Libyan Mohamed Imbaeya Israfel3 and blast did not cause the desired amount splinter into smaller factions due to the Egyptian Abdel Hady Abdelaziz of damage. According to the soldier’s internal disagreements, heightened Mahmoud Kol4—may be linked to declarations, the Libyan shouted some sectarian tendencies, or Pakistan’s current an unspecified Egyptian terrorist words in Arabic moments before the offensive against its central leadership. organization.5 Although many of explosion.6 the details are not yet clear, some Mukhtar A. Khan is a Pakistani Pashtun conclusions can be drawn about the Early probes found that the IED was journalist and policy/security analyst based operative and tactical aspects of the carried by the attacker in a toolbox in Washington, D.C. Since 9/11, he has attack, and especially on the wider placed in a rucksack. It had been covered Pakistan’s troubled frontier for the political and security implications for assembled with five kilograms of media, including the BBC, Mail on Sunday, Italy. Italy’s north is home to Muslim ammonium nitrate, likely mixed with and Voice of America. He has visited the immigrants, and the activities of some ammonia and acetone, while the trigger region frequently. Currently, he is working may have been electronic.7 The explosive on a book about the increasing trends of 1 Game, a 35-year-old engineer and electrician, has been mixture used by Game was similar to militancy in the Pakistan-Afghanistan living in Italy for nine years and has a relationship with ANFO,8 although the exact chemical border regions and its spillover to the rest of an Italian woman. The couple have two children and are composition of the device has not been the world. Mr. Khan is also working as Chief reportedly undergoing serious economic troubles after revealed by authorities. Media Strategist for AfPak Media Solutions Game’s business failed to pay back debt. See Carlo Bon- and is Senior Adviser to the Pashtun Focus. He ini, “Dal sogno di fare fortuna ai debiti il mistero di Mo- While the prompt intervention of has also served as the Communication Officer hamed, lupo solitario,” La Repubblica, October 13, 2009. Corporal La Veneziana denied Game the for the Sustainable Development Networking 2 “Libyan in Milan Bomb Attack,” ANSA Press Agency, possibility of proceeding deeper into the Program and The World Conservation Union October 12, 2009. barracks, the damage could have been to help connect and improve the lives of 3 Israfel is a Libyan citizen aged 33 and currently un- considerable had the terrorist been able disadvantaged people in Pakistan. employed. He attracted the attention of Italy’s DIGOS to exploit the full potential of the IED. police service in July 2009, as he was wiretapped speak- ing in extremist religious terms. He has a clean criminal 6 “Bomba contro una caserma a Milano Gravemente feri- record. to l’attentatore libico,” La Stampa, October 12, 2009. 28 “GHQ Attackers Demanded Release of 100 Militants,” 4 Kol, a 52-year-old Egyptian living in Italy, has a clean 7 “Bomba caserma, 40 kg nitrato ammonio,” ANSA Dawn, October 13, 2009. criminal record but is suspected of being linked to Egyp- Press Agency, October 13, 2009; Il Giornale, October 15, 29 Jane Perlez and Salman Masood, “Pakistani Brigadier tian extremist networks. 2009. Assassinated in the Capital,” New York Times, October 22, 5 “Attentato, spunta un testimone ‘Ho visto nascondere 8 ANFO stands for ammonium nitrate-fuel oil and is a 2009. il nitrato,’” La Repubblica, October 16, 2009. widely used explosive mixture.

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