August 25, 2015
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
August 25, 2015 KOREA Sector News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Retail (Overweight) KOSPI 1,846.63 16.82 0.92 Focus on stocks positioned for earnings growth KOSPI 200 223.07 1.54 0.70 KOSDAQ 645.43 32.10 5.23 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 446,401 6,565 KOSPI 200 138,747 4,980 KOSDAQ 512,961 3,301 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,153,963 KOSDAQ 179,420 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,707 2,235 -529 Institutional 1,330 1,115 214 Retail 3,490 3,187 303 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 285 250 35 Institutional 203 155 48 Retail 2,805 2,882 -76 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,609 1,841 -232 KOSDAQ 85 69 16 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 694 145 27 KOSDAQ 993 76 19 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,079,000 0 425 KODEX LEVERAGE 8,400 70 395 Hynix 33,500 2,450 379 KODEX 200 22,305 75 362 KODEX INVERSE 9,050 -45 352 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Celltrion 70,500 8,800 183 NaturalendoTech 26,800 3,800 114 Sansung P&C 52,600 3,300 100 Daum Communications 128,300 4,300 79 ilShinbiobase Co., Ltd. 3,840 150 70 Note: As of August 25, 2015 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Retail (Overweight/Maintain) Focus on stocks positioned for earnings growth Sector Update A more selective approach is warranted for 2H August 25, 2015 Focus on stocks with strong potential for earnings growth Our top picks are Lotte Himart and HDS; Also watch GS Retail and Emart Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. Focus on earnings [Retail] Aiden Lee Retail stocks have lately come under pressure alongside a broader selloff in the KOSPI and +822-768-3297 KOSDAQ markets. During this time, retailers that are expected to deliver better earnings [email protected] should see limited downside risks, and eventually stronger upside momentum. Looking at large offline retailers, sales appear to have normalized in July, but given the slow pace of growth, we believe investors should take a more selective approach. Convenience store operators have continued solid operating earnings, but we think share prices may be at an inflection point. As for home shopping companies, we have yet to see signs of a recovery in TV channel sales. Lotte Himart to see strong profit gains once revenue grows Lotte Himart’s stock has retreated back to the lows seen earlier this year, after earnings growth missed market expectations on disappointing revenue, eroding confidence in future earnings. But despite sluggish revenue in 2Q, operating earnings still improved thanks to profitability enhancement through cost savings. We believe this trend will continue in 2H, with even the slightest increase in revenue driving strong profit gains. In 2H, we believe Lotte Himart could see revenue growth from the mobile and small household appliance segments. Mobile sales are currently increasing at a 10% rate and should benefit from a low base of comparison in 4Q (due to the introduction of the handset distribution law in 2014). Sales of small household appliances are also growing strongly at nearly 20%, helped by the strategic increase in stock-keeping units (SKU). The growth of small household appliances is especially positive to margins. Watch department store operators with new store momentum We believe Hyundai Department Store (HDS) is entering an earnings growth cycle. The new Pangyo Store, which has drawn enormous traffic since its opening last Friday, should become one of HDS’s top-performing stores, driving overall earnings growth from 3Q15 to 2016. Furthermore, the Gimpo premium outlet should begin to meaningfully contribute to earnings in 3Q, while additional store openings are slated through 1H16. We believe investors should pay attention to Shinsegae later this year, as the company also has strong new store momentum ahead, with retail space expected to increase more than 40% in 2016. We see Emart shares gathering upside momentum around the end of the year, when Emart Mall’s margin improvements are likely to gain pace. Within convenience store plays, GS Retail looks attractive We believe convenience store operators, which have so far been the best performers this year, may be reaching an inflection point. While we expect shares to trend higher alongside earnings in the long term, currently high valuations suggest share performances may be more moderate in the near term. Within the convenience store segment, we believe GS Retail’s stock will appreciate further, fueled by the turnaround of the supermarket business on top of the growing convenience store business. The supermarket division’s margins have been recovering on the back of cost reductions, and should continue to improve. Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including tthehe U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Key Universe Valuations August 25, 2015 ※All data as of close August 24, 2015, unless otherwise noted. 15F Earnings growth Mkt Cap Price P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Ticker Company Div Yield OP EPS (Wbn) (W) (%) 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 005930 Samsung Electronics 158,936 1,079,000 1.4 8.7 6.2 -6.9 8.5 8.5 7.9 1.0 0.9 12.6 12.3 005380 Hyundai Motor 32,491 147,500 2.4 -11.9 8.0 -7.1 2.1 6.2 6.0 0.7 0.6 11.4 10.7 015760 KEPCO 30,493 47,500 2.3 56.6 4.5 266.6 -47.6 3.1 5.9 0.5 0.5 16.9 7.9 000660 SK Hynix 24,388 33,500 1.2 13.1 0.6 8.5 2.8 5.3 5.1 1.1 0.9 22.9 19.4 090430 AmorePacific 19,905 340,500 0.3 42.2 37.5 56.2 35.3 39.7 29.3 7.1 5.8 19.2 21.7 000270 Kia Motors 19,275 47,550 2.4 -4.4 25.0 -0.3 14.9 6.5 5.6 0.8 0.7 13.0 13.7 012330 Hyundai Mobis 19,274 198,000 1.7 -10.7 11.1 -10.7 15.1 6.3 5.5 0.7 0.7 12.4 12.8 017670 SK Telecom 19,258 238,500 4.2 3.5 7.3 5.2 5.1 10.2 9.7 1.1 1.0 12.8 12.6 055550 Shinhan Financial Group 19,063 40,200 - - - - 0.0 0.0 032830 Samsung Life 18,960 94,800 - - - - 0.0 0.0 018260 Samsung SDS 18,609 240,500 0.2 14.3 13.8 12.4 12.2 40.1 35.7 4.1 3.7 10.8 11.0 034730 SK Holdings 16,464 234,000 0.9 23.2 9.0 356.4 4.3 20.1 19.3 3.4 3.0 22.7 19.8 035420 NAVER 16,201 491,500 0.2 12.7 34.4 32.0 35.5 27.0 19.9 5.0 4.0 28.8 29.4 005490 POSCO 15,345 176,000 4.5 -9.6 30.8 124.5 65.9 10.9 6.6 0.4 0.3 3.4 5.5 051910 LG Chem 14,513 219,000 1.8 53.5 26.1 61.5 35.5 11.5 8.5 1.2 1.1 11.2 13.8 033780 KT&G 14,278 104,000 3.4 14.8 -6.3 22.9 -10.5 14.1 15.7 2.2 2.0 17.1 14.1 105560 KB Financial Group 13,464 34,850 - - - - 0.0 0.0 000810 Samsung F&M 12,152 256,500 - - - - 0.0 0.0 051900 LG Household & Health Care 11,807 756,000 0.6 34.8 20.3 34.4 22.6 28.5 23.3 6.6 5.3 26.1 26.0 003550 LG Corp. 9,680 56,100 1.8 23.9 10.0 22.8 7.3 9.5 8.9 0.8 0.7 8.3 8.3 010130 Korea Zinc 9,039 479,000 1.4 3.2 17.4 9.4 17.6 16.5 14.0 1.8 1.6 11.3 12.0 035250 Kangwon Land 8,739 40,850 2.7 16.8 12.2 25.3 14.2 19.4 17.0 2.8 2.5 15.8 16.4 096770 SK Innovation 8,544 92,400 3.5 - -29.2 - -27.6 6.3 8.7 0.5 0.5 8.8 6.0 086790 Hana Financial Group 7,711 26,050 - - - - 0.0 0.0 035720 Daum Kakao 7,691 128,300 0.1 -42.7 105.4 -75.3 115.3 84.9 39.4 3.0 2.8 3.6 7.4 034220 LG Display 7,675 21,450 2.3 47.1 -34.0 49.0 -33.1 5.7 8.5 0.6 0.6 11.3 7.0 011170 Lotte Chemical 7,575 221,000 0.5 348.5 0.4 696.9 6.9 6.5 6.1 1.0 0.9 16.7 15.3 030200 KT 7,442 28,500 1.8 - 2.1 - -15.8 9.5 11.3 0.6 0.6 7.3 5.8 023530 Lotte Shopping 7,274 231,000 0.6 11.3 12.6 37.8 13.4 9.6 8.5 0.4 0.4 4.4 4.8 024110 Industrial Bank of Korea 7,178 12,900 - - - - 0.0 0.0 000830 Samsung C&T 7,155 45,800 1.3 -19.4 12.2 61.9 9.6 16.8 15.3 0.5 0.5 3.3 3.5 088350 Hanwha Life 6,861 7,900 - - - - 0.0 0.0 004020 Hyundai Steel 6,859 51,400 1.5 10.8 4.8 44.4 -4.6 5.4 5.7 0.4 0.4 7.8 7.0 009240 Hanssem 6,837 290,500 0.3 35.1 34.9 35.3 34.3 58.3 43.4 14.4 11.1 30.8 31.8 066570 LG Electronics 6,685 40,850 1.5 -40.8 56.2 31.8 84.9 14.0 7.6 0.6 0.6 4.5 7.9 19745.