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Diplomová Práce Vysoká škola CEVRO Institut DIPLOMOVÁ PRÁCE Kristina Kubešová Praha 2017 Vysoká škola CEVRO Institut Bezpečnostní studia INTENCIONÁLNÍ HROZBY V KOSOVU Kristina Kubešová Studijní program: Magisterský Studijní obor: Bezpečnostní studia (prezenční) Vedoucí práce: prof. MUDr. Jan Österreicher, Ph.D Diplomová práce Praha 2017 Prohlašuji, že jsem diplomovou práci zpracovala samostatně, uvedla v ní všechny použité prameny a zdroje a v textu řádně vyznačila jejich použití. V Praze dne 19.12.2017 Resumé Dnes, po více než devíti letech, které uplynuly od vyhlášení nezávislosti Kosova, je kosovská samostatnost a její politické, diplomatické a ekonomické směrování nadále předmětem sporu nejen na Balkáně, ale také na mezinárodní scéně. Na první pohled se může zdát, že Kosovo stojí na demokratických základech, nicméně se od svého vzniku se potýká s problémy, které se zdají býti téměř neřešitelné. Tato diplomová práce se věnuje problematice intencionálních hrozeb v Republice Kosovo formou analýzy ve vybraných aspektech. Cílem práce bude analýza vlivu politických postojů významných představitelů parlamentních stran v Kosovu na riziku uplatnění hrozby silového konfliktu vůči Srbsku. Formou zhodnocení politických názorů politiků ovlivňujících veřejné mínění v posledních 10 letech v závislosti na procentuální podpoře ze strany společnosti ve volbách bude vyjádřeno, jakou procentuální podporu mají názory podporující silový konflikt. Na základě získaných údajů budou identifikovány faktory rozdmýchávající konflikty a také analyzovány nezbytné kroky pro udržení míru v Kosovu. Today, more than nine years have elapsed since Kosov's independence, Kosovar independence and its political, diplomatic and economic routing remain subject to dispute not only in the Balkans but also on the international scene. At first glance, it may seem that Kosovo stands on a democratic basis, but has been struggling since its inception with problems that seem almost incomprehensible. This diploma thesis deals with issues of intentional threats in the Republic of Kosovo in the form of analysis in selected aspects. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the influence of political attitudes of important representatives of parliamentary parties in Kosovo on the risk of the threat of a force conflict against Serbia. A form of assessment of political opinion polls of public opinion polit- ents over the last 10 years, depending on the percentage support of the society in the elections, will indicate the percentage support that the opinions supporting the force conflict. Based on the data gathered, conflict- inducing factors will be identified and the necessary steps to maintain peace in Kosovo will be analyzed. Resumé Obsah 1 Úvod 8 1.1 Analýza zdrojů 11 2 Historický přehled konfliktu o „Kosovo“ 13 2.1 Vlastnictví Kosova z pohledu Srbů a Albánců 13 2.2 Časy osamostatňování 14 2.3 Cestka k Socialistické federativní republice Jugoslávie. 14 2.4 Srebrenická genocida 16 3 Válka v Kosovu 1998-1999 17 4 Politický systém 22 4.1 Kosovská nezávislost 22 4.1.1 Historie Kosovské nezávislosti. 22 4.1.2 Ahtisaariho plán 22 4.1.3 Srbský protinávrh 23 4.1.4 Nezávislost 24 4.1.5 Srbská reakce 24 5 . Kosovská osvobozenecká armáda – UČK 25 5.1.1 Poválečný vztah Albánců k Srbům 29 6 Stručná charakteristika politického systému 31 6.1 Volební systém v Kosovu 32 6.2 Asociace Srbských obcí v Kosovu 33 6.3 Vymezení hranic mezi Kosovem a Černou Horou 34 7 Přehled majoritních politických stran v Kosovu od roku 2007 37 7.1 LDK-Demokratická liga Kosova 37 7.2 PDK-Demokratická strana kosova 43 7.3 Vetëvendosje! 46 7.4 AAK-Aliance pro budoucnost Kosova 49 7.5 AAK- Aliance pro Kosovo 49 7.6 .NISMA – Iniciativa pro Kosovo 51 7.7 AKR 53 7.8 Serb List 54 8 Přehled parlamentních voleb v Kosovu od roku 2007 55 8.1 PARLAMENTNÍ 55 VOLBY V KOSOVU 2007 55 8.2 PARLAMENTNÍ 58 VOLBY V KOSOVU 2010 58 8.3 PARLAMENTNÍ VOLBY V KOSOVU 2014 62 8.4 PARLAMENTNÍ VOLBY V KOSOVU 2017 65 9 Závěr 71 10 Seznam použitých zdrojů a pramenů 76 1 Úvod Kosovo je vnitrozemský stát v centru Balkánského poloostrova, hlavní město a největší město Kosova je Priština. Země hraničí s Makedonií, Černou Horou a Srbskem. Dlouhodobé etnické napětí mezi albánskou a srbskou komunitou vedlo k etnickému násilí a posléze i ke kosovské válce v letech 1998-1999. Válka skončila vojenskou intervencí NATO, kterou donutila Svazovou republiku Jugoslávie ke stažení jejich jednotek z Kosova. Díky rezoluci č. 1244 se Kosovo stalo protektorátem OSN.1 Sedmnáctého února 2008 se však v srdci Balkánu zrodil nový stát. V únoru tohoto roku došlo k jednostrannému vyhlášení nezávislosti Kosovské republiky na Srbsku, kterou odhlasovalo 109 poslanců kosovského parlamentu. Vyhlášení nezávislosti bylo očekávaným vyústěním patové situace, ve které se Kosovo v posledních dvou desetiletích nacházelo. Dnes, po více než devíti letech, které od té doby uplynuly, je kosovská samostatnost a její politické, diplomatické a ekonomické směrování nadále předmětem sporu nejen na Balkáně, ale také na mezinárodní scéně. Ostatně, Kosovo doposud neuznalo 5 členů EU, o napjatém vztahu bývalé autonomní oblasti se Srbskem se není třeba dále rozepisovat. Kosovskou republiku prozatím uznalo celkem 114 světových států, mezi nimiž figuruje také Česká republika. Tato diplomová práce se věnuje problematice intencionálních hrozeb v Republice Kosovo formou analýzy ve vybraných aspektech. Přestože má stát Kosovo už několik let svou vlastní samostatnost, stále není schopen samostatně fungovat bez mezinárodního dozoru. Právě mezinárodní dozor má na Kosovo obrovský dopad. Na první pohled se může zdát, že tento stát stojí na demokratických základech, ale ve skutečnosti zde stále přetrvávají zaryté problémy jako je korupce, nepotismus, obrovská nezaměstnanost, ekonomické problémy, kriminalita, organizovaný zločin a další problémy se kterými se tento velice mladý stát není schopen samostatně vypořádat. 1 7 Years of Kosovo, Howard Smith of Geelong, dostupné z http://hsog.tk/2015/03/7-years-of-kosovo/ [cit. 2015-04-13]. 8 Podle Huntingtona válka vyvolala posílení náboženské identity. Jelikož ve válce na zlomových liniích má každá z válčících stran tendence zdůrazňovat vlastní identitu, ale také identitu soupeřící strany. 2 Rusko diplomaticky podporovalo Srby, zatímco Saudská Arábie, Turecko, Írán a Lybie dodávaly zbraně a finančně podporovaly muslimy v tomto konfliktu. Tato podpora nevycházela z ideologických nebo mocenským přesvědčení, ale z důvodu kulturní spřízněnosti. Kulturní konflikty jsou podle mnohých nejnebezpečnějšími konflikty dnešní doby. A k těmto konfliktům dochází na zlomových liniích mezi civilizacemi. 3 Díky kulturním náboženským rozdílům v rámci hledání své vlastní identity byla v prvních letech samostatného Kosova zřetelná inklinace k velké Albánii. Jako kulturně heterogennímu státu neusnadňuje právě myšlenka „megali idea“, která je typická právě pro Balkán. Můžu zde zmínit například Velké Srbsko, což byl stejný ideologický koncept, který obsahoval rozšíření území podle etnických, kulturních či jinak vytyčených hranic. Tak stejně byla myšlenka Velké Makedonie. 4 Tyto převládající myšlenky jsou také jedním z důvodů, kvůli kterým zde docházelo k neustálým sporům o území. Jak se ale zdá Kosovo pod tíhou problémů se kterými se každodenně potýká odsouvá myšlenku Velké Albánie do postranní. Cílem práce bude analýza vlivu politických postojů významných představitelů parlamentních stran v Kosovu na riziku uplatnění hrozby silového konfliktu vůči Srbsku. Formou zhodnocení politických názorů politiků ovlivňujících veřejné mínění v posledních 10 letech v závislosti na procentuální podpoře ze strany společnosti ve volbách bude vyjádřeno, jakou procentuální podporu mají názory podporující silový konflikt. Na základě získaných údajů 2 HUNTINGTON, S., Střet civilizací, boj kultur a proměna světového řádu, Praha, Rybka publishers, 2001, ISBN 80-86182-49-5 S284 3 HUNTINGTON, S., Střet civilizací, boj kultur a proměna světového řádu, Praha, Rybka publishers, 2001, ISBN 80-86182-49-5 S16 4 Megali Idea - Wikipedia. [online]. Dostupné z: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megali_Idea 9 budou identifikovány faktory rozdmýchávající konflikty a také analyzovány nezbytné kroky pro udržení míru v Kosovu. Výzkumná otázka: Jak se vyvíjí společenská podpora politických proklamací silově konfliktních řešení v Kosovu v posledních letech? 10 1.1 Analýza zdrojů Zásadním faktorem, který do značné míry určuje podobu této práce, je praktická neexistence sekundárních zdrojů. Akademické literatury věnované problému Kosova je velmi málo a jsou především zaměřené na historii. Nedostatek literatury je ale logický, zejména díky krátkému historickému odstupu a také s ohledem na fakt, že vzájemné vztahy České republiky a Republiky Kosovo leží mimo zájem zahraničních badatelů, na rozdíl od Kosova samotného. K úvodní části práce, která je věnovaná vývoji před vznikem Republiky Kosovo i samotnému aktu vyhlášení nezávislosti, je možné nalézt několik aktuálních prací a monografií. Jako hlavními zdroji byly využity monografie Petra Štěpánka Jugoslávie-Srbsko-Kosovo5 V ní se autor zabývá kosovskou otázkou, vztahy mezi etniky v Kosovu a vývojem tohoto území ve 20. století. Dílo Jugoslávie 1918-19926 od Jože Pirjeveca je, skvělým dílem komplexní historie „všech forem Jugoslávií“, velkou výhodou autora je, že skoro celý život strávil mimo Jugoslávii, a jeho dílo se snaží věcně popsat události v Kosovu. Kniha, jenž si ze všech použitých získala mojí největší pozornost, je dílo Od smrti Tita do smrti Jugoslávie-SVĚDECTVÍ7Raifa Dizdareviče, které na problematiku
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