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Weak Q4 Led by One-Offs; on Right Track 25 MAY 2016 Quarterly Update CIPLA INDIA BUY PHARMACEUTICALS Target Price: Rs 550 Weak Q4 led by one-offs; on right track Cipla’s reported Q4EBITDA declined 57% YoY while EBITDA (adjusted CMP : Rs 495 Potential Upside : 11% for one-offs) was flat YoYdespite 40 days of consolidation of higher- margin Invagen in US. While reported EBITDA margin was 6.7%, EBITDA margin adjusted for one-offs [inventory (3.4%), restructuring & MARKET DATA rationalization (3.4%) and incremental R&D (2.2%)] was at 15.8% (400 No. of Shares : 803 mn bps lower than our estimate). Free Float : 63% Market Cap : Rs 398 bn While steps towards restructuring and incremental focus on R&D seem 52-week High / Low : Rs 748 / Rs 492 positive, FY17 guidance (ex-Invagen acquisition) of mid-teens revenue Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 1.8 mn shares growth and 15-20% EBITDA growth seem disappointing. We reduce Bloomberg Code : Cipla IB Equity our FY17/FY18EPS by 26%/20%. Maintain BUY rating with revised TP Promoters Holding : 37% FII / DII : 14% / 15% of Rs 550 (20x FY18 EPS) vs. Rs 640earlier (22x FY17), as we expect scale-up in US to drive rerating. ♦ Weak Q4:While India business (40% of revenue) growth recovered to 16% YoY (vs. 3% growth in 9MFY16), export formulation growth was muted at 3% YoY led by weak performance in South Africa (11.5% of revenue) and high base in Q4FY15 (led by gNexium). We note adjusted EBITDA margin was weaker than expected due to weak performance in export formulations and higher R&D expense (8.2% of Q4 sales vs. 6.5% in FY16) ♦ Last leg of clean-up:Cipla has seen significant clean-up in inventory, rationalization of non-key marketsand restructuring in last 2 quarters to reduce complexity (given its past baggage) and enhance base business profitability ♦ Fast tracking US (~20% of FY18E revenue): We expect strong growth (60% CAGR over FY16-18E) in US (ex-Nexium) led by: (1) integration of Invagen/Exelan,(2) launch of products via own front end, (3) partnership model. It expects to file20-25 ANDAs(including respiratory and oncology) vs.5 in FY16; has 90 approved ANDAs and 78 ANDA pending (including partners); plans to launch 5-7 from Invagen and 8-10 products from Cipla pipeline (including few limited competition) in FY17. gAdvair (inhalers):Did not disclose any timeline to start clinical trials in US but confident of filing for substitutable version; UK approval’s exact timeline still not knownbut expects in few quarters Financial summary (Consolidated) Key drivers Y/E March FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Growth (% ) FY16 FY17E FY18E Sales (Rs mn) 108,824 133,725 161,983 188,236 Exports FD 35 32 17 Adj PAT (Rs mn) 11,807 15,059 17,378 22,091 India 9 13 15 Con. EPS* (Rs.) - - - - Core EBITDA margin 14.2 17.5 18.5 EPS (Rs.) 14.7 18.8 21.6 27.5 core-EPS 13 30 27 Chg YOY (%) (15.0) 27.5 15.4 27.1 P/E (x) 33.7 26.4 22.9 18.0 Price performance 120 RoE (%) 11.2 13.2 13.8 15.3 Sensex Cipla RoCE (%) 14.8 14.3 13.7 15.9 100 EV/E (x) 18.6 17.4 14.7 11.7 80 DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 60 Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 01 25 MAY 2016 Quarterly Update CIPLA INDIA PHARMACEUTICALS Exhibit 1: Domestic growth strong, but weak exports led to muted Q4 revenue growth (Rsmn) Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Domestic 10,860 13,970 12,620 11,940 12,580 16 5 Exports 18,950 23,800 21,000 19,760 19,480 3 (1) Formulations 16,900 21,740 18,740 18,330 17,440 3 (5) API 2,050 2,060 2,260 1,430 2,040 (0) 43 Gross revenue 29,810 37,770 33,620 31,070 32,060 8 3 Source: Company Exhibit 2: Weak Q4 led by one-offs and weak export formulations (Rsmn) Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net sales 29,807 37,768 33,617 30,273 32,067 8 6 Other operating income 1,120 760 907 793 599 (47) (24) Total revenue 30,927 38,528 34,524 31,066 32,665 6 5 One-offs (gNexium) - 4,823 2,592 - - - - Revenue (ex-one offs) 30,927 33,705 31,932 31,066 32,665 6 5 Gross profit 19,339 26,012 22,355 18,727 18,506 (4) (1) Gross margin 61 67 64 59 56 -528 bps -340 bps Staff 5,147 6,203 5,859 5,862 6,591 28 12 % to Sales 17 16 17 19 21 329 bps 119 bps Other Op. expenses 9,115 9,419 8,602 8,328 9,725 7 17 % to Sales 31 25 26 28 30 -25 bps 282 bps EBITDA 5,077 10,390 7,894 4,537 2,190 (57) (52) EBITDA margin 16 27 23 15 7 -971 bps -790 bps Core EBITDA* 5,077 6,050 5,561 4,537 5,161 2 14 Core EBITDA margin 16 18 17 15 16 -61 bps 120 bps Interest 434 514 503 230 368 (15) 60 Depreciation 1,357 1,288 1,340 1,375 1,414 4 3 Other Income 612 489 259 793 547 (11) (31) PBT 3,898 9,078 6,311 3,726 955 (75) (74) Tax rate 26% 28% 29% 3% -4% -3051 bps -730 bps Reported PAT 2,597 6,504 4,312 3,432 809 (69) (76) Core PAT 2,597 3,361 2,650 3,432 3,126 20 (9) Core EPS (ex-one-offs) 3.2 4.2 3.3 4.3 3.9 20 (9) Source: Company. *Core EBITDA margin excludes effects of one-offs pertaining to (1) Non-moving inventory write-off (1.3%) (2) Inventory reduction (2.1%) (3) Restructuring and rationalization (2.1%) (4) Incremental R&D (2.2%) (5) Staff adjustments (1.3%) Other concall highlights and our views ♦ Guidance:Management guided for FY17 revenue growth to be in mid-teens and expects EBITDA growth (on base business) of 15-20% ♦ North America (USD 321 mn, 15% of FY16 sales): Sales grew 117% YoY in FY16 led by launch of Esomeprazole. Cipla indicated Q4 includes base level of Esomeprazole and Pulmicort which is likely to continue fornext few quarters ♦ Cipla completed acquisition of InvaGen Pharma and Exelan Pharma in Q4. Most of InvaGen’s products have been transitioned to Cipla’s label and the company has managed to retain most of InvaGen’s customers. Management highlighted low risk of price erosion from new entrants in InvaGen’s key products, as they are in highly competitive segments (8-10 competitors). InvaGen’s top 3 products contribute ~30-35% to the revenue 02 25 MAY 2016 Quarterly Update CIPLA INDIA PHARMACEUTICALS Exhibit 3: US growth driven by gNexium 350 321.4* (USD Mn) 300 250 117% 200 148 150 100 50 0 FY15 FY16 Source: Company *Includes sales for InvaGen Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Exelan Pharmaceuticals Inc. ♦ Cipla is targeting 5-7 product launches from InvaGen pipeline and 8-10 from own operations in FY17. The company aims to file 20-25 ANDAs in FY17 (with key filings in respiratory and oncology segments) at a rate of 4-5 per quarter from Q2FY17, and has approved and 78 pending ANDAs ♦ Invagen acquisition for USD 550mn is currently treated as goodwill in FY16. A part of goodwill is expected to be reclassified as intangibles, which would be amortized as per accounting policy ♦ While Invagen’s 483 observations has been cleared by USFDA, outcome of 483 on Cipla’s Indore facility (July’15) is still awaited. Management remains confident of resolution given no major observations ♦ R&D (8.2% of Q4 sales; 6.5% of FY16 sales):Total project R&D has increased by 68% YoY in FY16, in line with management’s aim to accelerate development and filing timelines of top 50 projects. Management is targeting R&D expenditure of 8-8.5% of sales in FY17 ♦ India (Rs 51.84 bn, 40% of FY16 sales): India business grew 16% YoY in Q4 with sales of Rs 12.6 bn (against 14% market growth) whereas it grew 9% YoY in FY16 aided by 20% growth in COPD portfolio within the respiratory segment.However, the growth was hampered by weaker Gx (generics) business in 1HFY16. Management is focusing on in-licensing and new product introductions to drive domestic growth. Contribution of new introductions to sales increased to 4.5% in FY16 (vs. 3.2% in FY15) The company has executed 6 in-licensing deals in oncology, respiratory and dermatology segments and initiated 5 incremental innovation projects, of which 3 will be commercialized in FY17 Cipla expects 2-3% impact on revenues due to NLEM/ FDC ban+ 03 25 MAY 2016 Quarterly Update CIPLA INDIA PHARMACEUTICALS Exhibit 4: India growth: Hampered by weak Gx business in 1HFY6 Rx Overall 60,000 (Rs mn) 51,840 4 7,480 50,000 9% 40,000 30,000 13% 20,000 10,000 0 FY15 FY16 Source: Company * Excludes other India income, includes excise component; ^Based on IMS MAT Mar’16 data ♦ South Africa (ZAR 3,272 mn, 12% of FY16 sales):Revenue growth in FY16 was 25% YoY in constant currency terms, driven by 14% growth in private market.
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