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Rivalry of Geostrategies and Geoeconomies in Central Asia

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Rivalry of Geostrategies and Geoeconomies in Central Asia HRVATSKI GEOGRAFSKI GLASNIK 72/1, 21 – 48 (2010.) UDK 911.2:553.98](5-14)(262.81) Critical review 911.3:32](5-14)(262.81) Kritički pregledni članak 911.3:332](5-14)(262.81) The New Great Game: Rivalry of Geostrategies and Geoeconomies in Central Asia Petar Kurečić The paper studies rivalry of geostrategies and geoeconomies in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region. These regions have strategic value, particularly considering oil and gas reserves, which also represent a peril to the regional security. After centuries of Ru- ssian dominance, Central Asia became a region with five independent states. The Russian influence declined in the 1990s, only to return gradually, but its rivals have shown up. The USA and China started a quest for Central Asian and Caspian Sea oil and gas. The US presence in Iraq, the US and NATO’s presence in Afghanistan, US military bases, Russian presence and military bases, China’s rising influence, Iran’s and Turkey’s proximity to the region, and military and economic alliances, show that Central Asia is an arena of great power rivalry. The balance of power, instability and struggle for control over oil and gas reserves mean that the new Great Game has started. Key words: oil, natural gas, geoeconomy, geostrategy, Caspian Sea, Central Asia Nova velika igra: suprotstavljenost geostrategija i geoekonomija u Središnjoj Aziji Rad istražuje suprotstavljenost geostrategija i geoekonomija u Središnjoj Aziji i regiji Kaspijskog jezera. Regije imaju stratešku važnost kad su posrijedi zalihe nafte i plina, koje predstavljaju i ugrozu regionalnoj sigurnosti. Nakon stoljeća ruske dominacije Središnja Azija postala je regijom s pet neovisnih država. Ruski je utjecaj u devedesetima oslabio; postupno se vratio, no dobio je suparnike. SAD i NR Kina počeli su natjecanje za zalihe nafte i plina u Središnjoj Aziji i regiji Kaspijskog jezera. Prisutnost SAD-a u Iraku i Afga- nistanu, vojne baze SAD-a, ruska prisutnost i vojne baze, rastući utjecaj Kine, blizina Irana i Turske regiji te vojna i ekonomska savezništva pokazuju da je Središnja Azija predmet suparništva velikih sila. Ravnoteža snaga, nestabilnost i borba za kontrolu nad zalihama nafte i plina znače da je počela nova velika igra”. ” Ključne riječi: nafta, zemni plin, geoekonomija, geostrategija, Kaspijsko jezero, Središnja Azija 21 Hrvatski geografski glasnik 72/1 (2010.) INTRODUCTION The paper studies the rivalry of geostrategies and geoeconomies in the Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region, as well as the main patterns of current strategic and economic relations in these areas. It does not have the ambition to study the overall complexity of contemporary strategic and economic relations in Central Asia, but only to identify the main characteristics of these relations, and the most important players and their strategies. The Great Game is a British term for what was seen by the British to be strategic rivalry and conflict between the British and the Russian Empire for supremacy in Central Asia. The classic Great Game period is generally regarded as running approximately from the Russo- Persian Treaty of 1813 to the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907. Following the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, a second, less intensive phase followed. The term ”The Great Game” is usually attributed to Arthur Conolly, an intelligence officer of the British East India Company1. The importance of Eurasia as a World-island was recognized by Sir Halford J. Mac- kinder in his book Democratic Ideals and Reality in 1919, the same book in which the Heartland concept was introduced. Even before that, Mackinder had identified the area in the north and central part of Eurasia, and named it The Geographical Pivot of History (referred to also as Pivot) in 1904. He considered this area to be the most important part of the World, in terms of geostrategy (Sloan, 1999). Mackinder’s Pivot concept was introduced while the Great Game was still going on. Mackinder indeed realized the importance of territorial control over vast, continental expanses in the centre of the Eurasian landmass. It was a sparsely populated and developed area, but extremely difficult to reach from the sea, because of its remoteness and inaccessibility, espe- cially considering the level of technological development a century ago: Although Mackinder changed the heartland boundaries according to the strategic context of the times — he applied his formula in 1904, 1919, and 1943 — its core element always included Central Asia (the present-day countries of Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), western Siberia, and the northern portions of Iran and Pakistan. Beyond the reach of sea power, because its rivers flowed into inland seas or the largely inaccessible Arctic Ocean, the region was ”the greatest natural fortress on earth” (Seiple, 2004). The contemporary strategic and economic relations in Central Asia cannot be separated from the complexity of strategic and economic relations in Eurasia as part of the World- island. Because of the importance of the region for the energy supply of the world, and renewed rivalry of the world powers, Mackinder’s ideas should be studied to understand the basic principles of geostrategy, in this case particularly applied to the central part of Eurasia. If Eurasia is a part of the World-island, in accordance with Mackinder’s ideas, stra- tegic and economic relations that influence this part of the world should be referred to as geostrategic and geoeconomic, because their importance affects the global level. The importance and indivisibility of relations in Central Asia from those in the neighboring regions, the involvement of the world’s only superpower and two great world powers and their rival relations provide the reason to treat these relations at the level of global rivalry, and the region represents a prize and a testing ground of a strategic game, since 22 The New Great Game: Rivalry of Geostrategies and Geoeconomies in Central Asia the influence of the world’s greatest powers is projected upon it. The interest of these great powers in Central Asia is defined by geostrategy and geoeconomy. Strategic and economic relations in Central Asia are characterized by the rival geostrategy of the USA and strate- gies of Russia and China, and the reason for their interest is mainly geoeconomic, since the region, together with the Caspian Sea, contains vast oil and gas fields. To control the fields and the export of oil and gas from the region, strategic capabilities and presence in the region are needed as a means to control the oil and gas transport infrastructure. Rival and confronting interests of the USA, Russia and China are the causes of strategic rivalry. The map of Mackinder’s Pivot was first published in the paper The Geographical Pivot of History in 19042. Central Asia occupies the southern part of Mackinder’s Pivot area, and therefore, according to Mackinder, has extraordinary strategic value. Central Asia is also a part of the Heartland concept, which represents a revised concept, but speaking in the terms of area, is a slightly expanded Pivot. The geographical location of the region shows us that it represents a remote (from Western influence) and land-locked area. A vast transitional space, abundant in energy reserves, became an area of opportunity in the 1990s. It could become an even more significant area of opportunities, if instability, conflicts and great power rivalry were to be contained or at least kept at a minimal level. A comprehensive and feasible strategy, for the players involved in the strategic ”game”, should be used as a precondition for a successful and efficient geoeconomic agenda. The reasons for using a feasible strategy for the region are the following: 1. The energy supplies are located in a part of the world which is very unstable and difficult to reach from neighboring regions, because of physical barriers and lack of in- frastructure in the areas located south and southwest of Central Asia; 2. There are many rival, potentially hostile players in the international geopolitical arena that have a major goal in preventing the other players from becoming deeply involved in Central Asian affairs and gaining a larger portion of control over its energy resources; 3. A superpower from outside the region (USA) and a great power on the region’s borders (China) inevitably want to skirt Russian territory in order to end forever the de- pendence on transporting and exporting Central Asian oil and gas through the Russian, ex-Soviet infrastructure. Their objectives are in opposition to those of Russia in retaining the dependence of oil and gas exports from Central Asia on its infrastructure; 4. Russian and Chinese objectives in Central Asia have come to the point where their rivalry is put aside to a large degree, in order to contain the rising influence of a more powerful contender to their own influence, the USA. At present, it is possible to identify three primary strategies in Central Asia: • US strategy for Central Asia, an important part of US global geostrategy, global by its reach and capabilities, which wants to penetrate the region and establish its influence. It is connected with the US strategy for the Broader Middle East region that includes Afghanistan and Iraq. Its postulates are dominated by US interests, with support from some European Allies (NATO members); 23 Hrvatski geografski glasnik 72/1 (2010.) • Russian strategy, super regional by its reach and capabilities, which wants to keep Western influence, especially the influence of the USA, out of Central Asia. Its second main goal is to keep Chinese influence in Central Asia as weak as possible, and, at the same time, to use it against the rising Western, predominantly US influence; • Chinese strategy, super regional by its reach and capabilities, which also wants to influence the region, not so much with strategic capabilities, but with its economic and political influence that is rapidly rising.
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