International Workshop on Integrated Transboundary Water Resources Management in Southeastern Europe Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 18 -20 May, 2009
IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SAVA RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT
David Meerbach, Janusz Kindler, Peter Shanahan, Kenneth Strzepek , The World Bank BackgroundBackground
► Investments: Sava Waterway Rehabilitation Project, BiH, Croatia and Serbia Irrigation Projects, Croatia Inland Waters – what about the climate? ► World Bank priority - various initiatives ► ESW SE Europe Water and Climate Adaptation Project ► Objective s to inform government policy and the development community on approaches to adapt water resources management, planning and operations to the forecasted impact of climate change . to enhance the climate resilience of selected water sector investments and to stimulate debate among key stakeholders in the water resurces sector in SEE on climate -related impacts and adaptation strategies. ScopeScope
►►TaskTask 11 –– PreliminaryPreliminary WaterWater andand ClimateClimate AdaptationAdaptation PlanPlan (WATCAP)(WATCAP) –– SavaSava RiverRiver BasinBasin –– JulyJuly 20092009 ►►TaskTask 22 –– PreliminaryPreliminary WATCAPWATCAP –– 22nd basinbasin ►►TaskTask 33 –– TwoTwo adaptationadaptation plans,plans, firstfirst byby JulyJuly 20102010 ►►TaskTask 44 –– AdaptationAdaptation investmentinvestment guidelinesguidelines ►►TaskTask 55 –– Consultations,Consultations, reviewreview (2010(2010 --JulyJuly 2011)2011) WATCAPWATCAP ► WATCAP is based on: Hydrological Modeling Climate Change Assessment Water Management Assessment: Inventory of river basin characteristics, data availability, institutional capacity
► WATCAP is envisaged to consist of: (i) a watershed or sub -basin characterization; (ii) an impact/risk assessment for a number of scenarios, identifying threats and opportunities related to climate change; and (iii) appraisal of a number of scenarios with alternatives for adaptive management actio MethodologyMethodology –– learninglearning --byby --doingdoing CurrentCurrent statusstatus
►► ExperiencedExperienced teamteam mobilizedmobilized ►► FirstFirst exploratoryexploratory missionmission toto thethe region,region, allall 44 ISRBCISRBC membermember countriescountries visited.visited. ►► EngagingEngaging inin partnershipspartnerships withwith regionalregional counterpartscounterparts ►► FirstFirst findingsfindings presentedpresented todaytoday –– workwork inin progressprogress ClimateClimate changechange assessmentassessment FutureFuture ClimateClimate isis UncertainUncertain EconomicEconomic && ModelModel UncertaintyUncertainty Increased Droughts TemperatureTemperature ResultsResults fromfrom SINTASINTA (SI mulations of climate cha Nge in the medi Terranean Area)
Republic HydroMeteorological Service of Serbia Belgrade University Instituto Nazionale i Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Italy) Centro Euro -Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy) Current Analysis on Climate Change
► Current Analysis on Climate Change Regional models in development, suitable to inform water management planning and have river basin level analysis Regional models only for limited number of GCMs, not covering all range ► Further work: • Select a set of GCMs that span the range of CC impacts for SRB Possibly dynamic downscaling of selected GCM results over the SRB ► Use University of Belgrade Eta Regional Climate model ► Use HADLEY Centre PRECIS Regional Climate model at HM Serbia Prepare a complete set of GCM and RCM climate change scenarios for the SRB jointly with local historic climate data WaterWater andand ClimateClimate AdaptationAdaptation World Bank Anchor
Climate/ catchment modeling HistoricHistoric waterwater balancesbalances Sava at Ljubljanica
2000
1500 Sava at Beograd
1000 RO 2000 Precip 1500 500 ET 1000 Annual water balance (mm) water balance Annual 0 Precip RO Precip ET & Runoff 500 ET Kupa Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0 Precip ET & Runoff 2000
1500 Drina 1000 RO Precip 2000 500 ET 1500
Annual water balance(mm) Annual water 0 Precip ET & Runoff 1000 RO Precip Vrbas 500 ET
2000 (mm) balance water Annual 0 Precip ET & Runoff 1500
1000 RO Precip 500 ET
Annual water balance (mm) Annual water 0 Precip ET & Runoff Data source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, 2009. Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. 20302030 waterwater balancesbalances
Sava at Ljubljanica
2000
1500 Sava at Beograd
1000 RO 2000 Precip 500 1500 ET Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0 1000 Precip ET & Runoff Precip RO 500 Kupa ET
Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0 2000 Precip ET & Runoff
1500
1000 RO Drina Precip 500 2000 ET
Annual water balance (mm) water balance Annual 0 1500 Precip ET & Runoff 1000 RO Precip Vrbas 500
2000 ET Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0
1500 Precip ET & Runoff
1000 RO Precip 500 ET Annual water balance (mm) water balance Annual 0 For Scen. B1 Precip ET & Runoff Hydrologic Implication Hydrologic Model Results
Annual Runoff
Acc . to A2 scenario by ISPL Model HydrologicHydrologic ImplicationImplication RegionalRegional HydrologicHydrologic ModelModel ResultsResults
Annual Runoff
Acc. to A2 scenario by Hadley Model Next Steps for Hydrologic Analyses for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation ►Develop a comprehensive hydrologic model of the entire SRB ►Each major tributary should be modeled at a detailed watershed level ►Smallest Spatial Scale appropriate for streamflow /climate data and GCM and RCM ►Daily /10 day/ Monthly time scale ►As appropriate Monte Carlo generation of alternative climate time series should be developed ►Analyze climate change in risk-base planning framework IWTIWT -- RehabilitationRehabilitation ofof SavaSava RiverRiver Waterway,Waterway, in the context of the IWRM and development of the multimodal regional transport system
Rhine – Main – Donau Corridor Xb (Road) Corridor Vb (Rail)
DANUBE RIVER Ljubljana Zagreb Corridor X (Road) Corridor X (Rail)
Brezice Slovanski Samac Sr. Mitrovica Brod DANUBE RIVER Sisak Bosanski Brcko Sabac Belgrade Constanta SAVA RIVER (Port) Corridor Vb (Rail) Brod Corridor Vb (Road) Rijeka (Port) Banja Luka Maritime corridor Sarajevo Maritime Split corridor Corridor Vc (Road) Corridor Vc (Rail)
Maritime corridor Ploce (Port) Maritime corridor HistoricHistoric monthlymonthly averageaverage riverriver dischargedischarge alongalong SavaSava RiverRiver mainstemmainstem
4500
4000
3500 /s) 3 Sremska 3000 Mitrovica Slavonski 2500 Brod Zagreb 2000
1500 Based on Monthly average flow (m averageflow Monthly 1000 discharge records for 500 1926-1965 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, 2009. Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. HistoricHistoric 1010 --yearyear lowlow flowflow Jesenice Radovljica Prebacevo Jakob Sv. Litija Radece Catez Zagreb Rugvice Crnac Jasenovac Mackovac Davor Kobas Brod Zupanja Raca Mitrovica Sremska Beograd 1600
Median flow 1200 ) s / 3 m (
e g r
a 800 h c s i d
r e v i R 400 10-year low flow
0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 River kilometer
Source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, 2009. Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. 20302030 1010 --yearyear lowlow flowflow d a r g o e Jesenice Radovljica Prebacevo Jakob Sv. Litija Radece Catez Zagreb Rugvice Crnac Jasenovac Mackovac Davor Kobas Brod Zupanja Raca Mitrovica Sremska B 1600
Median flow 1200
) Based on s / 3 IPCC Scenario B1 m ( e g r a 800 h c s i d r e v i R 400 10-year low flow Based on Historic IPCC Scenario B1 2030 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 River kilometer Towards IWT and climate adaptation
Analysis Adaptation options ► River basin modeling ► Design parameters ► Streamflow modeling ► River dredging ► Hydromorphologic ► River training works modelling/1D-2D ► Upstream control ► Modeling of climate structures (reservoirs, scenarios weirs) for low flow ► Modeling of transport augmentation scenarios ► Rail or road transport FloodFlood plains,plains, wetlands,wetlands, ecosystemecosystem servicesservices andand floodflood protectionprotection Indicative map of important flood -prone areas in the SRB
Characterization of the SRB, ISRBC HistoricHistoric flowflow --durationduration curvecurve forfor SavaSava RiverRiver atat SlavonskiSlavonski BrodBrod
10000 8000 6000
4000 /s) 3 2000
1000 800 600
400 Mean daily discharge (m discharge daily Mean
200
100 0.01 0.2 2 20 50 80 98 99.8 99.99 Percentage of time discharge was exceeded
Source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. FlowFlow --durationduration curvescurves forfor SavaSava RiverRiver atat SlavonskiSlavonski BrodBrod inin 20302030
10000 8000 6000
4000 /s) 3 2000 Envelope of wettest predictions from 1000 IPCC scenarios 800 600
400 Envelope of driest Meandaily discharge(m predictions from
200 IPCC scenarios
100 0.01 0.2 2 20 50 80 98 99.899.99 Percentage of time discharge was exceeded HistoricHistoric 100100 --yearyear floodflood flowflow Radovljica Prebacevo Litija Catez Crnac Jasenovac Davor Kobas Raca Sremska Mitrovica Jesenice Sv.Jakob Radece Zagreb Rugvice Mackovac Brod Zupanja Beograd 8000
6000 ) s / 3 m (
e g r 100-year flood flow a 4000 h c s i d
r e v i R 2000
Median flow 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 River kilometer
Source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. 20302030 100100 --yearyear floodflood flowflow Jesenice Radovljica Prebacevo Jakob Sv. Litija Radece Catez Zagreb Rugvice Crnac Jasenovac Mackovac Davor Kobas Brod Zupanja Raca Mitrovica Sremska Beograd 8000
100-year flood flow
6000 Based on )
s IPCC Scenario A2 / 3 m (
e g
r 2030 a 4000 h c s i d
Historic r e v i R 2000 Based on IPCC Scenario B1 Median flow 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 River kilometer FloodFlood riskrisk managementmanagement Develop and strengthen the existing flood management system
Characterization of the SRB, ISRBC Towards flood and climate adaptation Analysis Adaptation options ► Streamflow modeling ► Design parameters ► Hydromorphologic ► Flood plain zoning modelling ► Flood retention ► 1-D/2-D Hydraulic ► Flood protection/ Flood Modeling control reservoirs ► Flood risk mapping ► Flood and disaster ► Flood damage mapping insurance ► Hydrometeorological services ► Early warning system HydrologicHydrologic ImplicationImplication RegionalRegional HydrologicHydrologic ModelModel ResultsResults
Crop water deficit
Acc. to A2 scenario by Hadley Model Hydrologic Implication Crop Model Results
Crop water deficit
acc . to scenario 2, by ISPL model Towards agricultural water management and climate adaptation
Analysis Adaptation options ► Evapotranspiration ► Irrigation expansion modeling ► Forest and rangeland ► Soil Moisture modeling management ► Water use efficiency/ ► Crop response modeling water saving ► Land use and agricultural ► Water harvesting zoning ► Water measurement and pricing ► Soil and water conservation technologies WaterWater supplysupply inin thethe SavaSava RiverRiver BasinBasin The ratio beween the current and 2015 water use
Water use/demand in SRB
4,000.0
3,490.7 3,500.0
3,000.0
2,500.0 present 2,000.0 future 3,278.4 10**6m3 1,500.0
1,000.0 762.7
421.6 500.0 783.1 241.0 129.4 518.2 232.0 27.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Public water Industry Thermal plant Irrigation Other Other supply agricultural (tourism, recreation) users Towards water supply and climate adaptation
Analysis Adaptation options ► Reservoir Yield Analysis ► Domestic: ► River Basin Models Water demand management Water pricing ► Groundwater Yield Analysis Rainwater collection ► Watershed Mgt Modeling ► Industrial Introduce "dry" cleaning technologies Introduce closed cycle and/or air -cooling Plant design with reuse and recycling of water imbedded. Shift products manufactured Name River Planned Planned Planned Remark installed installed average New capacity discharge yearly (MW) (m3/s) production hydropower (GWh/year) generation in BA Ustikolina Drina 59,0 255,0 BA Vranduk Bosna 22,0 103,2 the Sava BA Unac Unac 71,0 250,0 BA Ugar usce Ugar 15,0 60,0 River Basin Vrletna BA Kosa Ugar 25,0 63,0 BA Vrhpolje Sana 68,0 157,4 BA Vlasenica Jadar 0,9 0,7 6,9 BA Bogatić Željeznica 8,0 5,5 33,0 BA Mesići Pra ča 3,1 8,0 16,0 BA Tiš ća Tišća 2,1 0,7 10,0 HR RS SI HE Blanca Sava 42,5 160,0 SI He Krško Sava 41,5 145,0 SI HE Brežice Sava 41,5 161,0 To add to Sava 49,9 98,0 the old SI one HE Moste Total 449,5 14,9 1 518,5
SRB Characterization Report , ISRBC Towards Thermal/hydropower and climate adaptation
Analysis Adaptation options ► Energy Duration Curves ► Build addition reservoirs and hydropower stations ► Reservoir Analysis ► Introduce low -head run -of -the - ► River Basin Modeling river hydropower ► Hydrothermal (heat -water) ► Introduce more efficient Modeling hydropower turbines ► Flexible (spillway) design ► Introduce alternative thermal cooling systems: ► Cooling ponds, wet tower and dry towers ► Market/Price driven transfers to other activities/energy sources Towards water quality and climate adaptation Analysis Adaptation options ► Dissolved oxygen ► EffluentEffluent loadload models reductionsreductions ► Nutrient load and ► NonNon --pointpoint sourcesource eutrophication models pollutionpollution controlscontrols ► River temperature ► ClosedClosed --cyclecycle coolingcooling (hydrothermal) models (cooling(cooling towers)towers) forfor powerpower generationgeneration NextNext stepssteps ► Preliminary SRB WATCAP and detailed work plan ► Further inventory of regional capacity and data availability ► Engaging with regional partners for joint water and climate adaptation analyses ► Analytical phase ► Presentation of first results and consultations ► Identification of 2 nd river basin for WATCAP