International Workshop on Integrated Transboundary Water Resources Management in Southeastern Europe Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 18 -20 May, 2009 IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SAVA RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT David Meerbach, Janusz Kindler, Peter Shanahan, Kenneth Strzepek , The World Bank BackgroundBackground ► Investments: Sava Waterway Rehabilitation Project, BiH, Croatia and Serbia Irrigation Projects, Croatia Inland Waters – what about the climate? ► World Bank priority - various initiatives ► ESW SE Europe Water and Climate Adaptation Project ► Objective s to inform government policy and the development community on approaches to adapt water resources management, planning and operations to the forecasted impact of climate change . to enhance the climate resilience of selected water sector investments and to stimulate debate among key stakeholders in the water resurces sector in SEE on climate -related impacts and adaptation strategies. ScopeScope ►►TaskTask 11 –– PreliminaryPreliminary WaterWater andand ClimateClimate AdaptationAdaptation PlanPlan (WATCAP)(WATCAP) –– SavaSava RiverRiver BasinBasin –– JulyJuly 20092009 ►►TaskTask 22 –– PreliminaryPreliminary WATCAPWATCAP –– 22nd basinbasin ►►TaskTask 33 –– TwoTwo adaptationadaptation plans,plans, firstfirst byby JulyJuly 20102010 ►►TaskTask 44 –– AdaptationAdaptation investmentinvestment guidelinesguidelines ►►TaskTask 55 –– Consultations,Consultations, reviewreview (2010(2010 --JulyJuly 2011)2011) WATCAPWATCAP ► WATCAP is based on: Hydrological Modeling Climate Change Assessment Water Management Assessment: Inventory of river basin characteristics, data availability, institutional capacity ► WATCAP is envisaged to consist of: (i) a watershed or sub -basin characterization; (ii) an impact/risk assessment for a number of scenarios, identifying threats and opportunities related to climate change; and (iii) appraisal of a number of scenarios with alternatives for adaptive management actio MethodologyMethodology –– learninglearning --byby --doingdoing CurrentCurrent statusstatus ►► ExperiencedExperienced teamteam mobilizedmobilized ►► FirstFirst exploratoryexploratory missionmission toto thethe region,region, allall 44 ISRBCISRBC membermember countriescountries visited.visited. ►► EngagingEngaging inin partnershipspartnerships withwith regionalregional counterpartscounterparts ►► FirstFirst findingsfindings presentedpresented todaytoday –– workwork inin progressprogress ClimateClimate changechange assessmentassessment FutureFuture ClimateClimate isis UncertainUncertain EconomicEconomic && ModelModel UncertaintyUncertainty Increased Droughts TemperatureTemperature ResultsResults fromfrom SINTASINTA (SI mulations of climate cha Nge in the medi Terranean Area) Republic HydroMeteorological Service of Serbia Belgrade University Instituto Nazionale i Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Italy) Centro Euro -Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy) Current Analysis on Climate Change ► Current Analysis on Climate Change Regional models in development, suitable to inform water management planning and have river basin level analysis Regional models only for limited number of GCMs, not covering all range ► Further work: • Select a set of GCMs that span the range of CC impacts for SRB Possibly dynamic downscaling of selected GCM results over the SRB ► Use University of Belgrade Eta Regional Climate model ► Use HADLEY Centre PRECIS Regional Climate model at HM Serbia Prepare a complete set of GCM and RCM climate change scenarios for the SRB jointly with local historic climate data WaterWater andand ClimateClimate AdaptationAdaptation World Bank Anchor Climate/ catchment modeling HistoricHistoric waterwater balancesbalances Sava at Ljubljanica 2000 1500 Sava at Beograd 1000 RO 2000 Precip 1500 500 ET 1000 Annual water balance (mm) water balance Annual 0 Precip RO Precip ET & Runoff 500 ET Kupa Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0 Precip ET & Runoff 2000 1500 Drina 1000 RO Precip 2000 500 ET 1500 Annual water balance(mm) Annual water 0 Precip ET & Runoff 1000 RO Precip Vrbas 500 ET 2000 (mm) balance water Annual 0 Precip ET & Runoff 1500 1000 RO Precip 500 ET Annual water balance (mm) Annual water 0 Precip ET & Runoff Data source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, 2009. Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. 20302030 waterwater balancesbalances Sava at Ljubljanica 2000 1500 Sava at Beograd 1000 RO 2000 Precip 500 1500 ET Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0 1000 Precip ET & Runoff Precip RO 500 Kupa ET Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0 2000 Precip ET & Runoff 1500 1000 RO Drina Precip 500 2000 ET Annual water balance (mm) water balance Annual 0 1500 Precip ET & Runoff 1000 RO Precip Vrbas 500 2000 ET Annual water balance (mm) balance water Annual 0 1500 Precip ET & Runoff 1000 RO Precip 500 ET Annual water balance (mm) water balance Annual 0 For Scen. B1 Precip ET & Runoff Hydrologic Implication Hydrologic Model Results Annual Runoff Acc . to A2 scenario by ISPL Model HydrologicHydrologic ImplicationImplication RegionalRegional HydrologicHydrologic ModelModel ResultsResults Annual Runoff Acc. to A2 scenario by Hadley Model Next Steps for Hydrologic Analyses for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation ►Develop a comprehensive hydrologic model of the entire SRB ►Each major tributary should be modeled at a detailed watershed level ►Smallest Spatial Scale appropriate for streamflow /climate data and GCM and RCM ►Daily /10 day/ Monthly time scale ►As appropriate Monte Carlo generation of alternative climate time series should be developed ►Analyze climate change in risk-base planning framework IWTIWT -- RehabilitationRehabilitation ofof SavaSava RiverRiver Waterway,Waterway, in the context of the IWRM and development of the multimodal regional transport system Rhine – Main – Donau Corridor Xb (Road) Corridor Vb (Rail) DANUBE RIVER Ljubljana Zagreb Corridor X (Road) Corridor X (Rail) Brezice Slovanski Samac Sr. Mitrovica Brod DANUBE RIVER Sisak Bosanski Brcko Sabac Belgrade Constanta SAVA RIVER (Port) Corridor Vb (Rail) Brod Corridor Vb (Road) Rijeka (Port) Banja Luka Maritime corridor Sarajevo Maritime Split corridor Corridor Vc (Road) Corridor Vc (Rail) Maritime corridor Ploce (Port) Maritime corridor HistoricHistoric monthlymonthly averageaverage riverriver dischargedischarge alongalong SavaSava RiverRiver mainstemmainstem 4500 4000 3500 /s) 3 Sremska 3000 Mitrovica Slavonski 2500 Brod Zagreb 2000 1500 Based on Monthly average flow (m averageflow Monthly 1000 discharge records for 500 1926-1965 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, 2009. Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. International Sava River Basin Commission. Commission. Basin River Sava International Repor Hydrology 2009. Prohaska, Stevan Source: Dr Historic 10 Historic Historic 10 Historic River discharge (m3/s) 1200 1600 400 800 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jesenice Radovljica Prebacevo Sv. Jakob Litija Radece Catez Riverkilometer Zagreb Rugvice - - Crnac low flow year year low flow year Jasenovac Median flow Mackovac Davor Kobas t for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. Final Report. Analysis, Basin River t for Sava the 10-year low flow10-year low Brod Zupanja Raca Sremska Mitrovica Beograd River discharge (m3/s) 1200 1600 400 800 2030 10 2030 2030 10 2030 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jesenice Radovljica Prebacevo Sv. Jakob Litija Radece Catez - Riverkilometer Zagreb Rugvice - year low flow year year low flow year Historic Crnac Jasenovac Median flowMedian Mackovac Davor Kobas 10-year flowlow Brod 2030 Zupanja Raca Sremska Mitrovica Beograd IPCC Scenario B1 Scenario IPCC on Based IPCC Scenario B1 Scenario IPCC on Based Towards IWT and climate adaptation Analysis Adaptation options ► River basin modeling ► Design parameters ► Streamflow modeling ► River dredging ► Hydromorphologic ► River training works modelling/1D-2D ► Upstream control ► Modeling of climate structures (reservoirs, scenarios weirs) for low flow ► Modeling of transport augmentation scenarios ► Rail or road transport FloodFlood plains,plains, wetlands,wetlands, ecosystemecosystem servicesservices andand floodflood protectionprotection Indicative map of important flood -prone areas in the SRB Characterization of the SRB, ISRBC HistoricHistoric flowflow --durationduration curvecurve forfor SavaSava RiverRiver atat SlavonskiSlavonski BrodBrod 10000 8000 6000 4000 /s) 3 2000 1000 800 600 400 Mean daily discharge (m discharge daily Mean 200 100 0.01 0.2 2 20 50 80 98 99.8 99.99 Percentage of time discharge was exceeded Source: Dr Stevan Prohaska, Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report. International Sava River Basin Commission. FlowFlow --durationduration curvescurves forfor SavaSava RiverRiver atat SlavonskiSlavonski BrodBrod inin 20302030 10000 8000 6000 4000 /s) 3 2000 Envelope of wettest predictions from 1000 IPCC scenarios 800 600 400 Envelope of driest Mean daily discharge(m predictions from 200 IPCC scenarios 100 0.01 0.2 2 20 50 80 98 99.899.99 Percentage of time discharge was exceeded International Sava River Basin Commission. Commission. Basin River Sava International for t Report Hydrology Prohaska, Stevan Source: Dr Historic 100 Historic Historic 100 Historic River discharge (m3/s) 2000 4000 6000 8000 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jesenice Radovljica Prebacevo Sv. Jakob 100-year flood 100-yearflow flood Litija