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Hpr 1998 11 05 Thursday, Nov. 5, 1998 • Volume 5, Number 13 Page 1of8 Software,chutpah • THE win it for Democrats HOWEYT 53-4 7 House lead came with hi-tech By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis It's the economy, stupid. Right? POLITICAL Is that what happened here in Indiana last Tuesday when Democrats took control of the Indiana House by an amazing 53-47 margin and won two out of three hotly con­ tested congressional races? REPORT To some degree, the answer is yes. CNN's exit polling The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink, showed that an unprecedented 84 percent of those voting Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is were satisfied with the economy. an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the But that doesn't explain how freshman State Rep. political process in Indiana. Tiny Adams decisively won a second term in a rematch Brian A. Howey against Republican James Vanleer, 8,180 to 5,466 in editor and publisher Muncie. "Middletown, Indiana" has been buffeted by a num­ The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 ber of plant closings as well as the withdrawal of a commu­ PO Box 20877 Fax: 317-254-2405 nity icon, Ball Corporation. • Indianapolis, IN 46220 [email protected] Was there a backlash against the impeachment pro­ [email protected] ceedings against President Clinton? Exit polling here in Indiana showed that only about 20 percent of the people who Washington office: 202-775-3242 voted did so as a referendum on the Clinton presidency. Daytime number: 317-254-2400, Ext. 273 Going into the election, speculation was that Pager: 317-320-2722 Republican Jean Leising in the 9th Congressional District would benefit from resentment over Clinton's affair with NewsLink Home Page: http://www.inoffice.com/hpr Monica Lewinsky. Cutting into the teeth of several polls, Subscriptions: $250 annually via fax or first Democrat Baron Hill won that election narrowly by about class mail. Call 317-254-1533. 6,000 votes. © 1998, The Howey Political Report. All rights Was this the year of the incumbent? It was to a large reserved. Photocopying, faxing or reproducing in any degree for those deemed to have a hand in maintaining a form, in whole or in part, is a violation offederal law good economy. Only one incumbent legislator- State and is strictly prohibited without consent ofthe publisher. Continued on page 2 "QUOTE" OF THE WEEK INSIDE F E A T U R E S 'I apologize to all the witches who were •Ticker Tape: Indy loses convention page 2 insulted when I associated them with Sue •Ticker Tape: Big decisions for Helmke page 3 Anne Gilroy.... '" -Indiana Democratic Chairman Joe •congress: Mcintosh aims at Newt pages 4-5 .ndrew after the Gilroy campaign called for an apology for his calling the secretary of state a witch. •Horse Race: Bayh's trajectory page 6 •Horse Race: Welch heads upsets page 7 Thursday, Nov. 5, 1998 Page 2 of8 candidates fresh voter identification that • DemocratS,Jrompage i TICKER could tell whether the voter at 123 Main Rep. Candy Marendt in Indianapolis - Street in Muncie was a "soft Republican" T A p E lost. But she had remarried and changed or an independent voter. her name from Morris to Marendt. "We've got none of that," said one Perhaps folks weren't as familiar with her disgruntled Republican who worked on a Indiana Republican name. Right? major statewide campaign and speaking Chairman Mike McDaniel Two other big GOP legislative on background. "If we tried to get a said on WIBC electllon night precinct map, we'd get something that he was "stunned" by the casualties - State Rep. Karen Burkhardt in looked like a 1960 IBM printout full of loss of the Indiana House Kokomo and Jeff Ellington in by a 53-47 margin. But even Bloomington - had never appeared on a wrong addresses." more staggering was when November ballot for the offices they were With great alarm, many Hoosier word came swiftly Thursday seeking. Burkhardt probably didn't enter Republican political operatives saw the afternoon that the the election with all the advantages of an Democratic technological advantage in Republican National incumbent. tangible terms on Election Night. Convention was going to Voters in St. Joseph, LaPorte and Incumbent Secretary of State Sue Philadelphia. It was a city Starke counties upset incumbent Anne Gilroy carried Republican-oriented McDaniel had Identified to Democratic prosecutors and sheriffs. Marion County with a mere 52 percent of HPR last week as Its biggest the vote against underfunded Democratic rival. CNN reported that So, if all of these elements were challenger Cheryl Little and Libertarian Republicans considered true only to a degree, was there a true Pennsylvania's Importance decisive factor? Yes. Steve Dillon. Yet Little shellacked Gilroy in 2000 compared to The answer lies in software. in Lake County, 64,142 to 31,142. That is Indiana's. McDaniel said he Indiana Democrats - with the lone excep­ scaring GOP operatives to death. was "very upsef' at the tion of a last-minute e-mail campaign by Said one Republican, speaking on • decision. Said Mayor the victorious Republican St. Joseph background; "It used to be we'd gather a · Goldsmith, "We had a County prosecutor - won the campaign decisive lead when the Marion County superlative bid In all with a cutting edge software program vote more than offset the Lake County respects." Added Mitch called "Preview." vote. Now there is a diminished spread." Daniels, "I think my party's During the last minutes of the 1998 on a roll of dubious decl· I first got wind of this last August slons." at French Lick when Democrats had a state legislative session, Democratic State seminar on the capabilities of the Preview Rep. Ed Mahem proposed a resolution Evan Bayh's first trip to software. When I entered the room, backing federal Social Security. That was Washington took place on Democratic leaders in the back pointed a trap for Republicans. Rep. Burkhardt Thursday and one of his toward me and gave the slit throat sign. It voted against the measure and Democrats first meetings was with Sen. was a big, big secret. were able to raise that vote and pinpoint Richard Lugar. The two dis· The software armed Democratic targeted direct mail against her. Democrat cussed committee assign­ candidates with cutting edge technology Ron Herrell won that Kokomo race by ments and sharing offices 191 votes. in Indiana. to cross-lay direct mail and pinpoint sec­ tions of voters. Every Democratic candi­ Mahem himself won what was Fort Wayne Mayor Paul date for the legislature received a CD­ expected to be a close race by about 800 Helmke has some major ROM from Indiana Democrats. Tiny votes in Indianapolis. decisions to make In the Adams was able to target multiple pieces What kind of help was Marendt wake of his loss to Sen.· of direct mail to different groups - soccer offered by Marion County Republicans? elect Evan Bayh. On elec· moms, white middle-aged balding males, "I asked for a 10-day run on my precincts tion night, Helmke noted football referees, Akita owners, etc. You and it didn't even include my phone num­ Dick Lugar's loss in 1974, name the group, and Democratic candi­ ber on it," said Marendt. "I've lived in the his decision not to run for dates could merge their messages into same house for 19 years." • re-election as mayor in A mailer by Marion County 1975, and his defeat of Sen. packages ready and set for the U.S. Postal Service. Republicans on behalf of Marendt told Continued on page 3 The CD-ROM gave Democratic recipients if they needed a ride to call the Page3 of8 Thursday, Nov. 5, 1998 • precinct official listed - but with no phone Gary Hofmeister, who was relying on a number! massive Christian Coalition get out the TICKER Marendt knew she was in trouble vote effort. when on Election Eve all of her neighbors As election night went on, Indiana T A P E received phone calls on behalf of her Democrats won almost all the crucial leg­ Democratic opponent, Jeb Bardon. On islative and congressional races. It didn't Vance Hartke In 1976. "I'm Election Day, she was monitoring the just happen. fascinated by national polls and watched a van with Julia Carson And don't think for a moment the Issues," Helmke told HPR stickers on its bumper unload eight peo­ likes of Mayor Stephen Goldsmith and Publisher Brian Howey on ple. The driver of the car was speaking Sue Anne Gilroy aren't quaking in their WIBC·AM. "I like being an into a walkie-talkie. Southward toward boots about the dismal performance of its executive. I want to stay central Indianapolis, Congresswoman keystone county political organization. Involved." Helmke told the Carson's volunteers were driving up and Goldsmith will face a vigorous re-election Fort Wayne Journal Gazette down streets with loud speakers, exhort­ battle nexxt year in a county he lost by that "I hoped I helped myself In name recognition ing the people to vote. 17,000 votes in 1996. And without better around the state for the Carson herself won a decisive performance in 2000, Gov. O'Bannon is future." That's a big clue 20,000 plus vote victory over Republican almost assured of a second term. •!• that Helmke could forego a fourth term as mayor In '99 and run for governor In '00. Mcintosh may challenge Newt Outgoing Allen County Sheriff Joe Squadrito and Poor election performance roils Republicans Linda Buskirk are consider· Ing runs for mayor • • By MARK SCHOEFF JR.
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