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Canada's Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply

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Canada's Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply CanadaCanada’’ss OilOil SandsSands ResourcesResources andand itsits FutureFuture ImpactImpact onon GlobalGlobal OilOil SupplySupply Presentation 2005-05-23, Uppsala University Bengt Söderbergh M.Sc. in Business and Economics with International Specialization M.Sc. In Sociotechnical Systems Engineering (September 2005) ComparisonComparison BetweenBetween DifferentDifferent CountriesCountries’’ ProvenProven ConventionalConventional OilOil ReservesReserves In January 2003, Canada’s proven oil reserves increased from 5 to 180 billion barrels. Why? Canada’s reserves of non-conventional oil became included. 300 Saudi Arabia Iran 250 Iraq United Arab Emirates 200 Kuwait Venezuela 150 Russia Billion Bbls Libya 100 Nigeria 50 U.S. Canada, Oil Sands Included 0 ComparisonComparison BetweenBetween DifferentDifferent RegionsRegions’’ OilOil ProductionProduction 10000 9000 Saudi Arabia 8000 Russia 7000 U.S. 6000 North Sea 5000 Iran China 4000 Iraq 3000 Thousand Bbls Per Day Per Bbls Thousand Conventional Canadian Oil 2000 Canadian Oil Sands 1000 0 UnconventionalUnconventional OilOil ProductionProduction isis SupposedSupposed toto BridgeBridge thethe ComingComing Gap!Gap! Low Resource Case Remaining ultimately recoverable resources base for conventional oil, 1700 as of 1/1/1996 (billion barrels) Peak period of conventional 2013-2017 oil production Global demand at peak of 96 conventional oil (mb/d) Non-conventional oil production 37 in 2030 (mb/d) Source: World Energy Outlook 2004 DefinitionsDefinitions ofof OilOil SandsSands andand HeavyHeavy OilsOils Oil Sands Bitumen/Heavy Oil Quartz sand, silt and clay, water and bitumen. Thick black, tar like substance Also, minor amounts of that pours extremely slowly. mineral, titanium, zirconium, tourmaline and pyrite 7 – 14° API Typical composition: Bitumen > 10.000 cPo 75 – 80% inorganic material (90% quartz sand) 3 – 5% water 10 – 12% bitumen TheThe CanadianCanadian OilOil SandsSands DepositsDeposits Production Technologies Mining and In situ thermal recovery In situ, extraction accomplished by drilling wells and thereafter injecting hot steam. Mining production 2004, about 600.000 bbls/d In situ production 2004, about 400.000 bbls/d MiningMining ExtractionExtraction About 20 % of established reserves Mining, huge open-pit mines combined with large extraction facilities to separate the bitumen from the sand. Less than 75 meters overburden. Recovery rate about 90% InIn SituSitu RecoveryRecovery About 80 % of oil established reserves In situ extraction removes the hydrocarbons, and leave the mineral behind. Viscosity, permeability and reservoir thickness important. Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) Emerging technologies, VAPEX & THAI Cyclic Steam Simulation (CSS) Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) (20 – 25% recovery rate) (40 – 70% recovery rate) Source: Imperial Oil Source: Husky Energy UpgradingUpgrading Bitumen is deficient in hydrogen. Must be upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO) to acceptable feedstock for refineries Addition of hydrogen or the rejection of carbon, or both. Upgrading uses natural gas as a source of heat and steam for processing and also as a source of hydrogen. CanadianCanadian ReservesReserves ofof CrudeCrude BitumenBitumen Ultimate Initial Initial Remaining (Billion barrels) Volume In Volume In Established Established Place Place Reserves Reserves Mineable Athabasca 138.6 113.4 35.2 32.3 In Situ Athabasca n/a 1187 n/a n/a Cold Lake n/a 201.3 n/a n/a Peace river n/a 127 n/a n/a Total In Situ 2381 1515.3 143.6 142.4 Total 2520 1628.7 178.8 174.7 EnvironmentalEnvironmental ImpactImpact Large water use (2.5 – 4 units of water per bitumen unit) Large ponds of waste material. Greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, but also other air emissions such as SO2, NOx, H2S, CO, O3, VOCs PAH etc Greenhouse gas emissions from the oil sands industry may exceed 130 mega-tonnes per year by 2020. Canada has signed the Kyoto treaty! OilOil ProductionProduction InvestmentInvestment AspectsAspects Oil sands mining projects demand enormous capital investments. Shell has invested more than C$6 billion in the AOSP project. Production costs between $15 – 24! Oil Sands production - A Profitable Business Area ! Already Made And Planned Investments In Oil Sands Production 1996 – 2002 $24 billion (Can.) investment in oil sands 2002 – 2006 $7 billion (Can) under construction. 2007 - $25 (Can) billion, new oil sands projects announced and under evaluation. DifferentDifferent PublicPublic OilOil SandsSands ForecastsForecasts 6000 5000 Total Oil Sands Production, NEB 4000 Total Oil Sands Production, CAPP 3000 Total Oil Sands Production, AEUB 2000 Total Oil Sands Thousand Bbls Per Day Per Bbls Thousand Production, OSTRM 1000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year NeedNeed ofof NaturalNatural GasGas Recovery and upgrading of bitumen from the oil sands consume large amounts of natural gas, electricity and hydrogen. Natural gas is the main source of energy and hydrogen. (historical origin) standard cubic feet / barrel (all figures are estimates and will vary) In situ 80 250 Mining Upgrader hydrogen today 400 1000 Added future upgrader hydrogen 250 Upgrader fuel (a ssume s no coke burner) IncreasingIncreasing demanddemand forfor NaturalNatural GasGas In 2003, natural gas supplied about 30% of the total energy consumption in Canada. About 50 % of Canadian natural gas production is exported to the U.S.. U.S. gas demand will grow from today’s 60 Bcf/day to more than 90 Bcf per day by 2010. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 U.S.$/MMBtu Henry Hub Henry U.S.$/MMBtu 1 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year UnsustainableUnsustainable RelianceReliance onon NaturalNatural GasGas 20 18 16 Total Canadian Natural Gas Production 14 Canadian Natural Gas 12 Production-U.S. Export 10 Canadian Natural Gas 8 Production-U.S. Export- Electric Power Demand 6 Oil Sands Production Natural 4 Gas Demand 2 Billion Cubic Feet Per Day Per Feet Cubic Billion 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year AllAll ProjectsProjects OilOil SandsSands ProductionProduction ForecastForecast Assumes all currently planned and postponed projects completed. – Not realistic! Assumes immediate action to increase production. 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 In Situ, Nonupgraded Thousand Bbls Per Day Bbls Thousand 1000 In Situ, SCO 500 Total Mining 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year AllAll MiningMining ProjectsProjects ForecastForecast All currently planned and postponed mining projects completed. The established mineable reserves of 32 Gb will have been produced! 2500 2000 1500 1000 Thousand Bbls Per Day Thousand Bbls 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year InIn SituSitu ProductionProduction –– thethe LongLong TermTerm FutureFuture 6000 5000 4000 Extrapolated curve OSTRM 3000 after 2030 2000 Thousand Bbls Per Day 1000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 Extrapolated curve after 2025 800 NEB 600 Thosand Bbls PerThosand Day Bbls 400 200 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year CanadaCanada’’ss TotalTotal OilOil SandsSands ProductionProduction MayMay PeakPeak 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 Thousand Bbls PerThousand Day Bbls 1000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Total Mining Total in Situ TheThe DecliningDeclining ConventionalConventional OilOil ProductionProduction fromfrom thethe NorthNorth SeaSea andand CanadaCanada The North Sea Canada 7000 1800 6000 1600 1400 5000 1200 4000 1000 3000 800 Thousand BblsThousand Per Day 600 2000 BblsThousand Per Day 400 1000 200 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Year ResultingResulting OilOil ProductionProduction fromfrom CanadaCanada’’ss OilOil Sands,Sands, CanadaCanada’’ss ConventionalConventional oiloil andand thethe NorthNorth SeaSea 8000 7000 Gap! 6000 5000 4000 3000 Thousand BBls Per Day BBls Thousand 2000 1000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Conventional Oil Production, Canada + The North Sea OSTRM Oil Sands Production Forecast ConclusionsConclusions The natural gas supply situation and CO2E emissions are development constraints for the oil sands industry. ??? In situ production - the big question mark ??? The Canadian oil sands industry cannot even compensate for the combined decline of conventional oil production in Canada + the North sea by 2030. The Canadian oil sands will not prevent global peak oil! Question to the IEA: Assuming Venezuela achieves a production of 6 million b/d of heavy oil by 2030, Canada 5 million barrels. Who will produce the remaining 26 million barrels per day of unconventional oil? TheThe CanadianCanadian oiloil sandssands willwill nonott preventprevent globalglobal peakpeak oil,oil, oror meetmeet futurefuture increaseincrease ofof demanddemand 140000 EIA World Oil Demand 120000 Canadian Oil Sands Production ASPO All Liquids except 100000 Canadian Bitumen Unknown Oil Demand 80000 Development after 2030 60000 40000 Thousand Bbls Per Day Per Bbls Thousand 20000 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Year.
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