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A First Look at the Structure of the Wave Pouch During the 2009 PREDICT–GRIP Dry Runs Over the Atlantic

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A First Look at the Structure of the Wave Pouch During the 2009 PREDICT–GRIP Dry Runs Over the Atlantic 1144 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 140 A First Look at the Structure of the Wave Pouch during the 2009 PREDICT–GRIP Dry Runs over the Atlantic ZHUO WANG University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois MICHAEL T. MONTGOMERY Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida CODY FRITZ University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois (Manuscript received 6 December 2010, in final form 16 August 2011) ABSTRACT In support of the National Science Foundation Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the tropics (NSF PREDICT) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Genesis and Rapid In- tensification Processes (NASA GRIP) dry run exercises and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- ministration Hurricane Intensity Forecast Experiment (NOAA IFEX) during the 2009 hurricane season, a real-time wave-tracking algorithm and corresponding diagnostic analyses based on a recently proposed tropical cyclogenesis model were applied to tropical easterly waves over the Atlantic. The model emphasizes the importance of a Lagrangian recirculation region within a tropical-wave critical layer (the so-called pouch), where persistent deep convection and vorticity aggregation as well as column moistening are favored for tropical cyclogenesis. Distinct scenarios of hybrid wave–vortex evolution are highlighted. It was found that easterly waves without a pouch or with a shallow pouch did not develop. Although not all waves with a deep pouch developed into a tropical storm, a deep wave pouch had formed prior to genesis for all 16 named storms originating from monochromatic easterly waves during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. On the other hand, the diagnosis of two nondeveloping waves with a deep pouch suggests that strong vertical shear or dry air intrusion at the middle– upper levels (where a wave pouch was absent) can disrupt deep convection and suppress storm development. To sum up, this study suggests that a deep wave pouch extending from the midtroposphere (;600–700 hPa) down to the boundary layer is a necessary condition for tropical cyclone formation within an easterly wave. It is hypothesized also that a deep wave pouch together with other large-scale favorable conditions provides a suf- ficient condition for sustained convection and tropical cyclone formation. This hypothesized sufficient condition requires further testing and will be pursued in future work. 1. Introduction evolve into tropical storms. The problem was insightfully summarized by Gray (1998): ‘‘It seems unlikely that the A longstanding challenge for both hurricane fore- formation of tropical cyclones will be adequately un- casters and theoreticians is to distinguish tropical waves derstood until we more thoroughly document the physi- that will develop into tropical cyclones (TCs) from trop- cal differences between those systems which develop into ical waves that will not. While tropical easterly waves tropical cyclones from those prominent tropical distur- occur frequently over the Atlantic and east Pacific, only bances which have a favorable climatological and syn- a small fraction of these waves (;20%; e.g., Frank 1970) optic environment, look very much like they will develop but still do not.’’ The principal reason for the difficulty of the problem Corresponding author address: Zhuo Wang, Department of At- is believed to lie with the multiscale nature of the trop- mospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801. ical cyclogenesis process. The fate of a tropical easterly E-mail: [email protected] wave depends on the large-scale environment in which it DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05063.1 Ó 2012 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 12:46 PM UTC APRIL 2012 W A N G E T A L . 1145 is embedded, the wave’s synoptic structure (e.g., low- Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL). They found level vorticity and middle-level moisture), and the me- that the three waves all had a singular burst of diabatic soscale and convective-scale processes associated with heating at a particular time in the wave’s history. The the wave’s evolution. The large-scale necessary condi- two developing waves were characterized by positive tions for tropical cyclone formation have been known barotropic energy conversion (energy conversion from for over four decades (e.g., Gray 1968; DeMaria et al. the mean flow to the wave disturbances). They attrib- 2001). Using rawinsonde data, McBride and Zehr (1981) uted the nondevelopment of the other wave to negative examined the differences between developing and non- barotropic energy conversion. Zawislak and Zipser developing cloud clusters, and showed that there is (2010) found that waves with large amplitude and ‘‘well- positive zonal wind shear to the north and negative organized low-level circulations’’ may have less precip- zonal wind shear to the south of a developing system. itation and may not develop. On the other hand, they They suggested that the major differences between de- suggested that waves with ‘‘weakly organized circula- veloping and nondeveloping cloud clusters can be syn- tion’’ may have strong vorticity centers, persistent pre- thesized into a genesis potential parameter, which they cipitation, and better chances for development. Their defined to be the difference in relative vorticity between study supports a distinction between the large-scale the upper-level (200 mb) and the low-level (900 mb) easterly wave troughs and smaller-scale vorticity centers tropical flow. within the wave. Their terms ‘‘well organized’’ and Several studies in recent years have examined further ‘‘weakly organized’’ appear to refer to the amplitude developing and nondeveloping synoptic-scale precursor of the wave trough, rather than a characteristic of the disturbances. Kerns and Zipser (2009) examined the tropical convection within the wave. However, a physical vertical wind shear, midlevel mixing ratio, upper-level reason was not given by Zawislak and Zipser as to why (200 hPa) and low-level (925 hPa) vorticity, and diver- such weakly organized waves would support more per- gence following the tracks of individual vorticity max- sistent precipitation and may be more likely to develop. ima. They found that the low-level relative vorticity can The different findings of the above studies may be best discriminate between developing and nondevel- partly due to the different tracking algorithms used oping disturbances. Peng et al. (2012) compared devel- and different criteria for case selection. For example, oping and nondeveloping disturbances over the North McBride and Zehr (1981) tracked cloud clusters while Atlantic and suggested that the vertically integrated Kerns and Zipser (2009) tracked vorticity maxima. Peng moisture, rain rate, 750-hPa relative humidity, and di- et al. (2012) excluded disturbances with maximum rela- vergence are the most important factors in determining tive cyclonic vorticity less than 1025 s21, while Kerns whether or not a tropical disturbance will develop into and Zipser (2009) screened out disturbances lacking cold a tropical storm. Peng et al. found also that prior to rapid cloud-top areas in the infrared (IR) satellite data. Despite development into a tropical storm, developing distur- all of these analyses, the essential difference between de- bances may not possess stronger vorticity than their veloping and nondeveloping waves still appears to remain nondeveloping counterparts. In other words, at the early largely unsolved. stage of tropical cyclone formation a developing distur- Recent work by Dunkerton et al. (2009, hereafter bance may not be apparently different from a non- DMW09) developed a new overarching theoretical and developing disturbance in the synoptic-scale vorticity field. observational framework for understanding the tropical Using 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather cyclone formation processes from easterly waves. Using Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data and the three independent datasets—ERA-40, Tropical Rainfall satellite brightness temperature between 1979 and 2001, Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly pre- Hopsch et al. (2010) showed that the nondeveloping waves cipitation, and the best-track data from the National have a weaker development over the west coast of Africa Hurricane Center (NHC)—the Kelvin cat’s eye within and possess a more prominent dry signal just ahead of the the critical layer of a tropical easterly wave was shown to wave trough at the middle to upper levels. be the preferred region of storm formation. The wave The National Aeronautics and Space Administration critical layer is the region of finite width surrounding the (NASA) African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses critical latitude of easterly waves in latitudinal shear (NAMMA) field campaign has inspired more studies flow. In the enclosed Kelvin cat’s eye, air parcels tend to on the important problem of development versus non- be trapped and recirculate, rather than being swept one development (Zipser et al. 2009; Vizy and Cook 2009; way or the other by the surrounding latitudinal shear flow Ross et al. 2009; Zawislak and Zipser 2010). Ross et al. (DMW09). The cat’s eye was hypothesized to be im- (2009) examined three African easterly waves (AEWs) portant to TC formation in three distinct ways: 1) wave in 2006 using the National Centers for Environmental breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity and moisture Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 12:46 PM UTC 1146 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
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