IAVWOPSG/5-WP/16 International Civil Aviation Organization 2/12/09

WORKING PAPER

INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP (IAVWOPSG)

FIFTH MEETING

Lima, Peru, 15 to 19 March 2010

Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW 5.1: Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW management reports

VAAC TOKYO MANAGEMENT REPORT

(Presented by Japan)

SUMMARY Pursuant to Conclusion 1/2 of the IAVWOPSG/1 Meeting, VAAC Provider States were invited to provide a concise IAVW management report to be presented at every IAVWOPSG meeting covering the period elapsed since the previous meeting and addressing the main features of the IAVW operations, highlighting any recent developments and difficulties and future planned developments. The report prepared by Japan is attached for the group’s review and consideration.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 In this period, 17 months from June 2008 to October 2009, Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo issued 1223 Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) to Meteorological Watch Offices (MWOs) in the VAAC Tokyo area of responsibility (Figure 1). In spite of some significant volcanic activities in volcanoes in the central Kuril Islands, serious aircraft accident due to volcanic ash was not reported in this period.

2. INTRODUCTION

2.1 VAAC Tokyo is operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and locates in the headquarters building of JMA in Tokyo. Staff members of the Seismological and Volcanological Department of JMA are engaged in the operation of VAAC Tokyo.

2.2 VAAC Tokyo is responsible for monitoring volcanoes and issuing VAAs in eastern Asia and northern Pacific area as shown in Figure 1.

(5 pages) IAVWOPSG.5.WP 016.5.en.docx IAVWOPSG/5-WP/16 - 2 -

Figure 1 VAAC Tokyo area of responsibility

2.3 In this period, ash plume of the Sarychev-Peak volcano in the central Kuril Islands which erupted mid-June, 2009 reached an altitude of not less than 13000 m as shown in Figure 2. The air route was taken up widely and thereby, many airplanes were forced to return or change their routes.

Figure 2 Volcanic ash advisory information in graphical format model VAG on 16 June 2009 - 3 - IAVWOPSG/5-WP/16

3. OPERATION OF VAAC TOKYO

3.1 Issuance of volcanic ash advisories

3.1.1 VAAC Tokyo issued 1223 VAAs for ten volcanoes in the area of responsibility in this period. Most frequent issuance of VAAs in this period was in June of 2009; 160 VAAs were issued in this month, mainly for Sarychev-peak volcano in Central Kuril Islands.

3.1.2 About 60 percent of them were issued in connection with the activity of Japan volcanoes. Most of them were issued in relation with the activities at Sakurajima and suwanosejima. The rest of VAAs were issued volcanoes in Kamchatka and Kurile Islands.

3.1.3 The number of VAAs in this period is shown in Table 1 and Figure 3.

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Table 1 Monthly number of VAAs issued by VAAC Tokyo from June 2008 to October 2009

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Figure 3 Total number of VAAs issued by VAAC Tokyo from June 2008 to October 2009 IAVWOPSG/5-WP/16 - 4 -

3.2 Volcanoes for which VAAs were issued in this period:

1) Bezymianny (Russia, 11 VAAs) - Since significant eruptions in December 2006, it had been relatively inactive. On 19 Aug 2008 it erupted again and ash reached 26,000ft. 2) Chikurachiki-Tatarino (Russia, 8 VAAs) - It had been calm since eruptions in September 2007, and it erupted again on 29 July 2008, and ash reached 20,000ft. 3) Ebeko (Northern Kuril Islands, 21 VAAs) - The small-scale eruption has been occurring since February, 2009. 4) Karymsky (Russia, 61 VAAs) - It has been continuously active and erupted intermittently. On the eruption on 20 October 2009, it emitted ash column reaching 13,000ft. 5) Kliuchevskoi (Russia, 56 VAAs) - Very high level eruption activities from May to June were subsided in August, 2007.Then, eruption activities resumed in December, 2008. On the eruption on 13 Dec 2008, it emitted ash column reaching 27,000ft. 6) Koryaksky (Russia, 80 VAAs) - Eruption activities increased from March to April and August, 2009. On the eruption on 17 August 2009, it emitted ash column reaching 20,000ft. 7) Sarychev-peak (Central Kuril Islands, 78 VAAs) - The eruption started for the first time in 20 years on June 11, 2009. Eruptive activities were mostly ended during June. By these eruptions, volcanic ashes spread in the air route from Japan to North America and Europe, and many airplanes were forced to change their routes or were obliged to return. On the eruption on 13 June 2009, it emitted ash column reaching above 45,000ft. 8) Sheveluch (Russia, 185 VAAs) - Since the eruption on 4 December 2006, it had erupted intermittently. On the eruption on 25 June 2009, it emitted ash column reaching 23,000ft. 9) Zhupanovsky (Russia, 1 VAA) - Only one case of eruption was reported in this period and one VAA was issued on 23 September 2009 for that event. 10) Asamayama (Japan, 41 VAAs) - Small eruptions were observed in August 2008 and February 2009. On the eruption on 1 February 2009, it emitted ash column reaching 15,000ft. 11) Kirishimayama (Japan, 1 VAA) - One eruption was observed on 22 August 2008, emitted ash height was unknown, and a VAA for this event was issued. That was the only VAA for this volcano in this period. 12) Meakandake (Japan, 4 VAA) - Small eruptions were observed in November 2008. On the eruption on 28 November 2008, it emitted ash column reaching 8,000ft. 13) Miyakejima (Japan, 1 VAA) - Small eruption was observed on 1 April 2009, emitted ash height of 5,000ft, and a VAA for this event was issued. That was the only VAA for this volcano in this period. 14) Sakurajima (Japan, 421 VAAs) - Eruption activities have been gradually activated since 2008. Especially since July 2009, eruption activities have been more activated and more than 50 VAAs were issued every month. - 5 - IAVWOPSG/5-WP/16

15) Suwanosejima (Japan, 254 VAAs) - Some small eruptions were reported and relevant VAAs were issued. Volcanic ash clouds from this volcano were less than 6,000ft.

3.3 Significant operations or technical changes

3.3.1 Volcanic activity reports from the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT), the Kamchatkan Experimental & Methodical Seismological Department (KEMSD) and the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) have made great continuous contributions to the timely issuance of VAAs by VAAC Tokyo, especially when satellite images could not identify small- scale eruptions.

3.3.2 Ash clouds from Sarychev-Peak extended out of area of responsibility of VAAC Tokyo and went into the area of VAAC Anchorage and/or VAAC Washington. VAAC Tokyo has successfully transferred the responsibility of issuance of VAAs for such volcanic ash clouds in accordance with the liaison procedure of handover described in the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (Doc 9766).

3.4 VAAC back-up operation

3.4.1 The VAAC Tokyo has duplicated system for issuance of VAAs in case of any trouble or maintenance.

3.4.2 No back-up operation was carried out during this period.

3.4.3 No back-up test was carried out during this period.

4. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

4.1 VAAC Tokyo will apply aviation colour code in coordination with volcanic activity reports from relevant volcanic observatories.

4.2 Although the present volcanic ash dispersion forecast model cannot respond to worldwide ash clouds, VAAC Tokyo has a plan aiming for development of the volcanic ash dispersion forecast model corresponding to the whole earth after renewal of the system in 2012.

5. ACTION BY THE IAVWOPSG

5.1 The IAVWOPSG is invited to note the information in this paper.

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