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China Retail Cities Spotlight | 2018 CHINA 20 RETAIL CITIES savills.com.cn/research This Publication This document was published in Oct 2018. All economic data is from the end of 2017. Store numbers were collected at the end of June 2018. Savills China retail cities study, which began in 2014, uses 16 series to determine leaders in two categories: the “economic index” is based on city’s macroeconomic figures and the “retailer index” is based on how many stores that 50 international brands have opened in the city. The series are weighed and aggregated to give a final score to each city. FOREWORD Great Expectations Despite challenges ahead, the market maturity between different regions and the emergence of new property and retail technology is expected to bring new dynamics to bear on the retail market. China’s retail market looked to be in full recovery towards the end of 2016 when During the past 12 months, Alibaba launched its “New Retail” concept to China saw balanced invest into the physical retail market. With expansion rates across Tencent also entering the physical retail main retailer categories market in 2017—through partnerships with while central and western a number of department stores and cities continued to supermarket chains—more capital and online outperform their peers in players began seeping into the offline market both economic growth and and giving the physical retail market a facelift. retailer expansion. We look at these retail trends in However, the recent turbulence and Chinese cities in this uncertainty in the property and stock special report. markets, as well as continuous deleveraging of the financial market and trade disputes Retailers between China and US, are straining the F&B segment continued underlying fundamentals of the economy and to outperform fashion may impact consumer sentiment in the near sector. Three sub-sectors future. of fashion recorded most comparable growth rates China has one of the highest e-commerce in the latest five years. penetration rates in the world and is one of the most accepting of new technologies. Cities China is also one of the most innovative Shanghai, Beijing and markets in the world, combining online and Shenzhen maintained offline experiences such as convenient mobile leading positions while payments and fast delivery services. Hangzhou, Xi’an and Changsha moved up their Nevertheless, the physical market is far from rankings. reaching the levels of maturity seen in the West. Consumer habits vary significantly between different regions or tiers of cities, making it almost impossible for any single retailer to take significant market share in the overall China market. At the same time, new real estate projects continue to come along meaning that tenants often hold the upper hand in negotiations and landlords can never be complacent. Complexity and uncertainty usually breed new business opportunities for those brave enough to seize them. Retailers need to stay on their toes to identify and respond to the next consumer trend that could come from any corner—they must be prepared to update or reinvent a product, service or experience to face new demands from their consumers. savills.com.cn/research 3 BRANDS Key retailer categories recorded steady growth in 2018 with the F&B segment continuing to outperform. In the apparel segment, expansion rates among different sectors were as comparable as they have been over the last five years. However, the F&B segment continued to record higher growth than fashion and large-scale retailers. Despite the slowing pace of growth in some segments, China now represents the largest overseas market for a range of retailers including Starbucks, Inditex and Shiseido. Luxury brands, having recorded better sales volumes over the last 12-24 months are once again looking for opportunities outside the country’s two gateway cities—Beijing and Shanghai—with the average number of newly opened luxury and affordable luxury stores similar across the other 18 cities. A bigger variance can be seen in mass to mid-range market, where Shanghai and Beijing recorded four to five times the number of new stores openings per retailer than the other 18 cities. Consumers in lower-tier cities showed higher acceptance and preference of international luxury brands than mass and mid-range brands, which face stricter competition from online, value-for-money products and domestic brands. 4 savills.com.cn/research BRANDS NEWLY OPENED Figure 1: Number of new stores per retailer per city, 2H/2017-1H/2018 Bejing & Shanghai Other 18 Cities (each) 36.0 Coee 6.9 35.5 Fast Food 7.1 0 Luxury 0.1 0.5 Aordable 0.3 Luxury 1.1 Mid-Range 0.3 0.3 0.6 Mass Market 0.8 0.2 Cosmetic SOURCE: SAVILLS RESEARCH, RETAILER WEBSITES savills.com.cn/research 5 LUXURY China has seen a sustained recovery in its luxury market since early 2016 and has benefited from the narrowing price gap between domestic and overseas markets, the rise of a new generation of sophisticated young consumers, and retailers’ increasing online exposure. A recent Bain & Company survey shows that the mainland China luxury market grew by 20% in 2017, while sales in mainland China now account for 8% of the global market, with this figure expected to grow another 20% in 2018. Premium Luxury In the premium luxury segment, new store Changsha IFS, occupying core locations and built by openings—which tend to lag behind retailer sales prominent developers. Both projects launched in performance—have finally started to pick up after 2018, SKP Xi’an hosts the city’s first Hermes store, two consecutive years of store closures. Over the while Changsha IFS is home to the first Dior and past 12 months, premium luxury retailers have an 8% Prada stores in the city. The number of premium increase in store count in the 20 cities surveyed. luxury stores in these two cities rose markedly in the last 12 months, exceeding the average for 86% of the new premium luxury stores opened in the second-tier cities; this is also reflected in the last 12 months were in Xi’an, Changsha and rankings, with Xi’an rising to fifth place from eleventh Chongqing. These three second-tier cities, located in and Changsha up to eighth place from eighteenth. central and western China, all offer strong economic growth prospects and consumer market potential; However, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenyang remain however, it is the development of landmark projects the top three markets in number of premium luxury that have played a more significant role in attracting brand stores, closely followed by Hangzhou. retailers. Recent examples include SKP Xi’an and Figure 2：Distribution of new luxury openings in China, 2H/2017 – 1H/2018 35% 27% 27% 4% Xi’an Chongqing Changsha Nanjing SOURCE: SAVILLS RESEARCH, RETAILER WEBSITES 6 savills.com.cn/research LUXURY Affordable Luxury & Premium Beauty and Malls Affordable luxury, along with Beauty products replaced sports and market. McKinsey recently projected premium beauty (cosmetic and entertainment as the fastest growing that, by 2020, online sales would skincare products), saw the pace of retail sector in 2018, reporting a 17% account for 11% of luxury sales in store expansion slow in 2018, after year-on-year (YoY) sales growth in China, and 36% of global online the highs of 2017, adding 0.3 and 0.2 2017. The strong growth was mainly luxury sales. Although the store per city per retailer driven by premier brands which authenticity of products from respectively. Beijing achieved the accounted for over 50% of premium third-party online platforms remains highest expansion rate in both beauty segments. For example, a concern for some consumers, the categories, followed by Xi’an in Shiseido Group saw its sales grow by fact that nearly 80% of consumers affordable luxury and Shenzhen in 20.1% in China in 2017, benefiting are omnichannel consumers indicates premium beauty. Thanks to the from a robust increase of Clé de Peau that online platforms have become sustained growth in the high-end Beauté, Shiseido and Ispa. Estee an important marketing and sales retail market over the past few years, Lauder Companies also reported tool in attracting younger consumers. Beijing has come close to Shanghai in double-digit sales growth in China, In fact, most successful retailers have both the affordable luxury and primarily driven by La Mer, Estee seen strong performance both online premium beauty categories while Lauder and Jo Malone. and offline and some skin care maintaining its lead over Shanghai in retailers say up to 20 to 30% of their the premium luxury sector. A key issue facing luxury retailers in revenue now comes from online China is how to tap into the online sales. Figure 3：Cosmetic and skincare market share by price range, 2015-1H/2017 2015 2016 1H/2017 Luxury Premium Mass Value SOURCE:GFK,SAVILLS RESEARCH savills.com.cn/research 7 Luxury Brands & Top-class Malls Top-notch developers, first-class retail projects and luxury brands seem to go hand in hand. However, in fiercely competitive markets, it takes more than a top-notch developer to convince retailers to launch another store. It is commonly believed that the recent recovery in China’s luxury market is sustainable and that it is supported by rising sales revenue per store rather than by new store openings. This recovery, however, is unlikely to translate into more stores openings as luxury retailers, already late e-commerce entrants, are now keen on developing their online presence. According to a BCG survey, around 77% of Chinese luxury consumers engage with luxury retailers via social media on a daily basis, 14 percentage points (ppts) higher than the global average. China’s young, internet-savvy consumers are expected to become a major buying group of luxury products in the future, so there is a good reason for retailers to focus on building their online profiles and sales platforms.
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