1 August 2020 DAVID ROMER Department of Economics
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TECHNOLOGY and GROWTH: an OVERVIEW Jeffrey C
Y Proceedings GY Conference Series No. 40 Jeffrey C. Fuhrer Jane Sneddon Little Editors CONTENTS TECHNOLOGY AND GROWTH: AN OVERVIEW Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and Jane Sneddon Little KEYNOTE ADDRESS: THE NETWORKED BANK 33 Robert M. Howe TECHNOLOGY IN GROWTH THEORY Dale W. Jorgenson Discussion 78 Susanto Basu Gene M. Grossman UNCERTAINTY AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE 91 Nathan Rosenberg Discussion 111 Joel Mokyr Luc L.G. Soete CROSS-COUNTRY VARIATIONS IN NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES," THE ROLE OF aTECHNOLOGYtr 127 J. Bradford De Long~ Discussion 151 Jeffrey A. Frankel Adam B. Jaffe ADDRESS: JOB ~NSECURITY AND TECHNOLOGY173 Alan Greenspan MICROECONOMIC POLICY AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE 183 Edwin Mansfield Discnssion 201 Samuel S. Kortum Joshua Lerner TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: THE GEOGRAPHIC DIMENSION 215 Jane Sneddon Little and Robert K. Triest Discussion 260 John C. Haltiwanger George N. Hatsopoulos PANEL DISCUSSION 269 Trends in Productivity Growth 269 Martin Neil Baily Inherent Conflict in International Trade 279 Ralph E. Gomory Implications of Growth Theory for Macro-Policy: What Have We Learned? 286 Abel M. Mateus The Role of Macroeconomic Policy 298 Robert M. Solow About the Authors Conference Participants 309 TECHNOLOGY AND GROWTH: AN OVERVIEW Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and Jane Sneddon Little* During the 1990s, the Federal Reserve has pursued its twin goals of price stability and steady employment growth with considerable success. But despite--or perhaps because of--this success, concerns about the pace of economic and productivity growth have attracted renewed attention. Many observers ruefully note that the average pace of GDP growth has remained below rates achieved in the 1960s and that a period of rapid investment in computers and other capital equipment has had disappointingly little impact on the productivity numbers. -
Christina and David Romer
The Region Christina and David Romer In times of financial turmoil, it is comforting—or at a minimum, illuminating— to receive counsel from those with long-term perspective. Tempered with the lessons of history, their views extract true trend from distracting noise. Guided by precedent, shaped by narrative, checked against data, the conclusions of economic historians are formed slowly and carefully. In the realm of U.S. monetary history, few economists are as qualified to provide such counsel as Christina Romer and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley. Since 1985, when both received their doctorates from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the two have co-authored some of the field’s central analyses of Federal Reserve policymaking, based on thorough scrutiny of Fed documents and painstaking empirical investigation. They’ve made fundamental contributions to the literature on fiscal policy as well. Individually, Christina is well known for her research on the Great Depression and David for his work on microeconomic foundations of Keynesian economics. While their topics and methods are orthodox, their conclusions are often unsettling. Attempts by members of the Federal Open Market Committee to add information to Fed staff forecasts “may lead to misguided actions,” the Romers wrote recently. Monetary policymaking has improved since World War II but not steadily, they’ve concluded; policymakers have gone astray when they deviated from sound economic theory. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Romers have found, government spending is not reined in by tax cuts. And, according to a celebrated, if “offbeat,” analysis by David, football coaches should be much more aggressive on fourth down. -
Presidential Documents
Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents Monday, October 3, 1994 Volume 30ÐNumber 39 Pages 1835±1915 1 VerDate 14-MAY-98 10:32 May 27, 1998 Jkt 010199 PO 00001 Frm 00001 Fmt 1249 Sfmt 1249 C:\TERRI\P39SE4.000 INET03 Contents Addresses and Remarks Appointments and Nominations See also Bill Signings; Meetings With Foreign Environmental Protection Agency, Deputy Leaders AdministratorÐ1869 Chicago, IL, Democratic Senatorial Campaign National Cancer Advisory Board, membersÐ Committee dinnerÐ1836 1911 Congressional Hispanic Caucus receptionÐ U.S. District Court, judgeÐ1836 1877 Bill Signings New York City Bethel A.M.E. ChurchÐ1851 Departments of Veterans Affairs and Housing Democratic Congressional Campaign and Urban Development, and Independent Committee dinnerÐ1855 Agencies Appropriations Act, 1995, United Nations statementÐ1889 General AssemblyÐ1862 Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Luncheon for heads of stateÐ1867 Efficiency Act of 1994, remarksÐ1896 Reception for heads of state and U.N. Communications to Congress delegationsÐ1867 Belarus-U.S. investment treaty, message Radio addressÐ1841 transmittingÐ1836 Receptions for Senate candidates Compact of Free Association With the Alan Wheat in Kansas City, MOÐ1847 Republic of Palau, letterÐ1874 Ann Wynia in Minneapolis, MNÐ1842 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, Edward M. Kennedy in McLean, VAÐ1902 messageÐ1876 Visit of Russian President Yeltsin Haiti, message transmitting noticeÐ1909 Business leadersÐ1888 Proliferation of chemical and biological ``In the Beginning'' exhibit at the Library of weapons, messageÐ1907 CongressÐ1880 Russian and American veterans of World Communications to Federal Agencies War IIÐ1872 China, memorandumÐ1911 State dinnerÐ1879 Guatemala, memorandumÐ1911 Welcoming ceremonyÐ1869 Haiti, memorandumÐ1910 (Contents Continued on inside of back cover.) WEEKLY COMPILATION OF regulations prescribed by the Administrative Committee of the Federal Register, approved by the President (37 FR 23607; 1 CFR Part 10). -
API-119: Advanced Macroeconomics for the Open Economy I, Fall 2020
Sep 1, 2020 API-119: Advanced Macroeconomics for the Open Economy I, Fall 2020 Harvard Kennedy School Course Syllabus: prospectus, outline/schedule and readings Staff: Professor: Jeffrey Frankel [email protected] Faculty Assistant: Minoo Ghoreishi [email protected] Teaching Fellow: Can Soylu Course Assistants: Julio Flores, Alberto Huitron & Yi Yang. Email address to send all questions for the teaching team: [email protected]. Times: Lectures: Tuesdays and Thursdays, 10:30-11:45 a.m. EST.1 Review Sessions: Tuesdays, 12:30-1:30 pm; Fridays, 1:30-2:30 pm EST.2 Final exam: Friday, Dec. 11, 8:00-11:00 am EST. Prospectus Course Description: This course is the first in the two-course sequence on Macroeconomic Policy in the MPA/ID program. It particularly emphasiZes the international dimension. The general perspective is that of developing countries and other small open economies, defined as those for whom world income, world inflation and world interest rates can be taken as given, and possibly the terms of trade as well. The focus is on monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policy, and on the determination of the current account balance, national income, and inflation. Models of devaluation include one that focuses on the price of internationally traded goods relative to non-traded goods. A theme is the implications of increased integration of global financial markets. Another is countries’ choice of monetary regime, especially the degree of exchange rate flexibility. Applications include Emerging Market crises and problems of commodity-exporting countries. (Such topics as exchange rate overshooting, speculative attacks, portfolio diversification and debt crises will be covered in the first half of Macro II in February-March.) Nature of the approach: The course is largely built around analytical models. -
The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment Author(S): George A
The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment Author(s): George A. Akerlof and Janet L. Yellen Source: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 105, No. 2 (May, 1990), pp. 255-283 Published by: Oxford University Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2937787 . Accessed: 09/10/2013 09:57 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Oxford University Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Quarterly Journal of Economics. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 216.164.44.3 on Wed, 9 Oct 2013 09:57:21 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Vol. CV May 1990 Issue 2 THE FAIR WAGE-EFFORT HYPOTHESIS AND UNEMPLOYMENT* GEORGE A. AKERLOF AND JANET L. YELLEN This paper introduces the fair wage-effort hypothesis and explores its implica- tions. This hypothesis is motivated by equity theory in social psychology and social exchange theory in sociology. According to the fair wage-effort hypothesis, workers proportionately withdraw effort as their actual wage falls short of their fair wage. Such behavior causes unemployment and is also consistent with observed cross- section wage differentials and unemployment patterns. -
High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HIGH FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION OF MONETARY NON-NEUTRALITY Emi Nakamura Jón Steinsson Working Paper 19260 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19260 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2013 We thank Matthieu Bellon, Vlad Bouchouev, Nicolas Crouzet, Jesse Garret and Shaowen Luo, for excellent research assistance. We thank Michael Abrahams, Tobias Adrian, Richard K. Crump, Matthias Fleckenstein, Michael Fleming, Refet Gurkaynak, Hanno Lustig, Emanuel Moench, and Eric Swanson for generously sharing data and programs with us. We thank Marco Bassetto, Gauti Eggertsson, Mark Gertler, Refet Gurkaynak, Samuel Hanson, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Emanuel Moench, Serena Ng, Roberto Rigobon, David Romer, Christoph Rothe, Eric Swanson, Michael Woodford, Jonathan Wright and seminar participants at various institutions for valuable comments and discussions. We thank the National Science Foundation (grant SES-1056107) and the Columbia Business School Dean’s Office Summer Research Assistance Program for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2013 by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson NBER Working Paper No. 19260 July 2013, Revised December 2013 JEL No. -
1 April 2009 DAVID ROMER Department of Economics University of California Berkeley, California 94720-3880
April 2009 DAVID ROMER Department of Economics University of California Berkeley, California 94720-3880 (510) 642-1785 International Monetary Fund 700 19th St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20431 (202) 623-7026 Current Positions Herman Royer Professor in Political Economy, University of California, Berkeley, 2000- present Senior Resident Scholar, International Monetary Fund, 2009-present Previous Positions University of California, Berkeley: Professor, 1993-2000 Associate Professor, 1990-1993 Acting Associate Professor, 1988-1990 Assistant Professor, Princeton University, 1985-1988 Visiting Professor, Stanford University, Fall Quarter, 1995 Visiting Associate Professor, Stanford University, Spring Quarter, 1993 Visiting Assistant Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1988 Visiting Scholar, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1987-1988 Junior Staff Economist, Council of Economic Advisers, 1980-1981 Education Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1985 A.B., Princeton University, 1980 Honors, Fellowships, and Grants National Science Foundation Grants: SES-0550912 (Co-Principal Investigator with Christina D. Romer), 2006-2009 SBR-9911443 (Co-Principal Investigator with Christina D. Romer), 2000-2004 SBR-9422584 (Principal Investigator), 1995-1999 SES-9122325 (Co-Principal Investigator with Laurence Ball), 1992-1994 1 SES-9008977 (Principal Investigator), 1990-1992 SES-8707950 (Co-Principal Investigator with Laurence Ball), 1987-1989 Henry George Lecturer, University of Scranton, October 2007 Fellow, American Academy of Arts -
Fall 2018 Christina Romer University of California, Berkeley David Romer ECONOMICS 210C / ECONOMICS 236A MACROECONOMIC HISTORY
Fall 2018 Christina Romer University of California, Berkeley David Romer ECONOMICS 210C / ECONOMICS 236A MACROECONOMIC HISTORY SUPPLEMENTAL READINGS DECEMBER 5 – THE DETERMINANTS OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY Scrimgeour, Dean. 2008. “The Great Inflation Was Not Asymmetric: International Evidence.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 40 (June): 799–815. Romer, Christina D. 2005. “Comments on ‘Origins of the Great Inflation’ by Allan H. Meltzer.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87 (March/April): 177–186. Rudebusch, Glenn D. 2002. “Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia.” Journal of Monetary Economics 49 (September): 1161– 1187. Coibion, Olivier, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. 2012. “Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4 (October): 126– 162. Taylor, John B. 1999. “A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules.” In John B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER): 319– 348. Orphanides, Athanasios. 2003. “The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (April): 633–665. Calomiris, Charles W., and David Wheelock. 1998. “Was the Great Depression a Watershed for American Monetary Policy?” In Michael Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene White, eds., The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economic in the Twentieth Century (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER): 23–66. Romer, Christina D., and David H. Romer. 2002. “A Rehabilitation of Monetary Policy in the 1950’s.” American Economic Review 92 (May): 121–127. Meltzer, Allan H. 2005. “Origins of the Great Inflation.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87 (March/April, Part 2): 145–176. Weise, Charles L. -
1 May 15 Script. Good Morning. Today I Am Going to Report on the State of Economics, Or As It Has Been Known for About 160 Year
May 15 script. Good morning. Today I am going to report on the state of economics, or as it has been known for about 160 years, ‘the dismal science.’ The 19th century historian Thomas Carlyle is credited with giving economics that nickname, "the dismal science," because of Thomas Malthus’ prediction that population growth would exceed the rate of growth of the food supply, and starvation would result—a truly dismal forecast. But today, it seems appropriate to think of economics as a dismal science, not because of the outcomes it predicts, but because it is so bad at predicting any outcomes at all, or even understanding how the economy works. It’s not just the now-famous question Queen Elizabeth asked British economists: ‘Why did no one see the financial crisis coming?’ It’s also: Can you help us get out of our current difficulties? And, oh, by the way, do you know how to prevent another crisis from happening? Last month’s annual spring meeting of the IMF and World Bank was the occasion for a conference devoted to assessing the lessons of the last five years--essentially asking the question: What have we learned since the onset of the financial crisis? The conference featured some of the world’s best known and most highly respected macroeconomists. I first learned of the conference from one CED Trustee who had read a New York Times column on it by Eduardo Porter. The conference papers and discussions are fascinating (at least to me), which is why I’m going to tell you about them. -
Course Code Advanced Macroeconomics I (Session F1) 2021 First Module Course Information
Course Code Advanced Macroeconomics I (Session F1) 2021 First Module Course Information Instructor: Chunyang Wang Office: PHBS Building, Room 750 Phone: 86-755-2603-3195 Email: [email protected] Office Hour: Mondays and Thursdays 10:30-12:30 Teaching Assistant: Xin Xu Phone: 150-1924-3534 Email: [email protected] Teaching Assistant: Huicong Li Phone: 186-5162-6810 Email: [email protected] Classes: Lectures: Monday/Thursday 08:30-10:20 Venue: PHBS Building, Room 229/230 Course Website: No. 1. Course Description 1.1 Context Course overview: This course is a fundamental course. It introduces basic macroeconomic tools used for future analysis. It mainly covers David Romer’s Advanced Macroeconomics textbook, with China and world application content added. This textbook is famous for its growth theory materials, which takes a large part of the book. China is a superstar growth engine for 30 years, which is the largest economic transformation in human history. Growth and development are no doubt the important issues facing China. This course also covers Keynesian economics, investment relating to Tobin’s q, and monetary policy, considering, correspondingly, the importance of government intervention in China, finance students audience, and inflation relating to surging housing price in China. Prerequisites: Mankiw, Gregory “Principle of Macroeconomics” 5th Edition High Math (at least know how to solve maximization problem, such as Lagrange method) 1.2 Textbooks and Reading Materials Page 1 of 7 David Romer’s Advanced Macroeconomics 4th edition Class notes Various papers downloadable. 2. Learning Outcomes 2.1 Intended Learning Outcomes Learning Goals Objectives Assessment (YES with details or NO) 1. -
Transparency and Deliberation Within the FOMC: a Computational Linguistics Approach∗†
Transparency and Deliberation within the FOMC: a Computational Linguistics Approach∗† Stephen Hansen‡ Michael McMahon§ Andrea Prat¶ November 4, 2015 Abstract How does transparency, a key feature of central bank design, affect monetary poli- cymakers deliberations? We answer this question with a natural experiment in the Federal Open Market Committee in 1993 and computational linguistics algorithms. Theory predicts a positive discipline effect and negative conformity effect. We first find large behavioural responses to transparency. We then propose a difference-in- differences approach inspired by the career concerns literature, and find evidence for both effects. Finally, we use an influence measure that suggests the positive effect dominates. Keywords: Monetary Policy, FOMC, Transparency, Latent Dirichlet Allocation JEL Codes: E52, E58, D78 ∗We would like to thank Francesco Amodio, Andrew Bailey, Guillermo Caruana, Francesco Caselli, Diego Garcia, Refet G¨urkaynak, Gilat Levy, Seamus MacGorain, Rick Mishkin, Emi Nakamura, Tommaso Nannicini, Bryan Pardo, Amar Radia, David Romer, Glenn Rudebusch, Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, J´on Steinsson, Dave Stockton, Thomas Wood, and Janet Yellen for insightful discussions. We are particularly grateful to Omiros Papaspiliopoulos for numerous helpful discussions on MCMC estimation. We have also benefited from comments and suggestions by seminar attendees at the San Francisco Federal Reserve; University of Warwick; University of Manchester; INSEAD; Bank of England; LSE; the New York Federal Reserve; Columbia University; the ESRI; Universitat Pompeu Fabra; the CEP annual conference; ESSIM; the NBER Summer Institute; the ECB; the CEPR Workshop on Incentives, Management, and Organization; the BIS; CEMFI; Torino; University of Hamburg; London Business School; CAGE; Norwegian Business School BI; and the OFCE EME workshop. -
Economic Policy for the Information Economy
Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy Martin Neil Baily Together with many policymakers and economists, I see in the 1990s expansion signs that new technologies that had been emerging for some time were finally paying off in stronger economic performance. I will use the expression “new economy” to describe this period, although I recognize the pitfalls in this name. New economy is probably too broad a term and implies both more change and more permanent change than actually took place. But “information economy” seems too narrow a term to describe the set of interrelated forces bringing about change in the economy, which include increased globalization, a more intense pressure of competition, the rapid development, adoption and use of information and communications technology (IT), and a favorable eco- nomic policy environment. The paper is a survey, drawing on a range of literature and covering a variety of topics. The goal is to give the reader a sense of some of the macroeconomic issues that have developed as a result of the sur- prising economic performance of the 1990s expansion, including some sense of what is known and not known about accelerated pro- ductivity growth, the key driver of the new economy. With the license of a survey paper, I have not tried to tell a linear story or link each section of the paper together, but there are, nonethe- less, two main themes. The first is to explore the relation between IT, on the one hand, and economic performance on the other. One view of 201 202 Martin Neil Baily the new economy is that it reflects an exogenous surge in innovation and capability in the high-tech sector.