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Vigilance from above from Vigilance 2011 Space and risk analysis paralysis risk analysis and Space complex more grows globalization chain Supply A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS November November

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Preparing NASA’s for the High Frontier

IN THE PREDAWN DARKNESS, DOUBLE Columbus, and Kibo laboratories. Fo- NASA asked our panel to address sonic booms sent a shiver up my cused for three decades on short-dura- three major questions: spine: A spaceship was coming home. tion shuttle flights, will NASA’s Astro- •How should the role and size of Scant minutes later, the xenon search- naut Corps be prepared to meet the the activities managed by the NASA lights flickered at the approach end of demands of steady-state ISS opera- Johnson Flight Crew Operations Di- Runway 15, Kennedy Space Center. tions (and anomalies) through 2020 rectorate change following shuttle re- Atlantis, back on Earth, streaked past and beyond? tirement and completion of the assem- us at midfield, drag chute filling at the bly of the ISS? end of her final voyage. Corps questions for astronauts •What are the requirements for But STS-135’s landing was not—no That question prompted NASA to ask crew-related ground-based facilities matter how many times the media said the National Research Council of the after the shuttle program ends? it—‘the end of America’s space pro- National Academies to examine the fu- •Is the fleet of aircraft used for gram.’ This oft-repeated hyperbole ig- ture roles and size of the corps, and training the Corps a cost-ef- nores the two NASA astronauts and the proper training facilities needed to fective means of preparing astronauts their four international crewmates preserve U.S. human spaceflight ex- to meet the requirements of NASA’s who were living and working aboard cellence. Early this year, the NRC com- human spaceflight program? Are there the international space station. missioned a study panel to address more cost-effective means of meeting For the next decade or more, the ISS these topics. The 13-member panel these training requirements? will be the focus of the U.S. human was cochaired by Joe Rothenberg, for- We’ll discuss only the first and third spaceflight program. Shifts of astro- mer NASA associate administrator for of these questions here. The reader nauts will supervise an array of exper- spaceflight, and Fred Gregory, former can find a full discussion of the sec- iments at the national laboratory and astronaut and NASA deputy adminis- ond within the report itself. conduct tests of next-generation sys- trator. Dwayne Day, NRC senior pro- tems and operations techniques to pre- gram officer, directed the study. Post-shuttle roles pare for expeditions into deep space. In early September, the panel issued For the past three decades, NASA’s as- Now that the station is substantially its final report, entitled “Preparing for tronauts have prepared mainly for complete, crews are deeply involved the High Frontier: The Role and Train- space shuttle operations. In this ISS not only in systems operations and ing of NASA Astronauts in the Post- and era, what should be the maintenance, but in interactive science Space Shuttle Era” [http://www.nap. central roles and responsibilities of the operations conducted in the Destiny, edu/catalog.php?record_id=13227]. Astronaut Corps? Based on NASA information and our own research, the panel found that the Astronaut Office (the Astronaut Corps is the subset of people within that of- fice eligible to fly in space) should sup- port six tasks in priority order: •Provide well-trained spaceflight operators to support the NASA flight manifest. •Supply ground support personnel for unique tasks required to support the NASA flight manifest. •Provide support for new program development, ranging from relatively small payloads and equipment to whole new spaceflight designs. •Be a source of operational knowl- edge and corporate memory of human spaceflight. The ISS and the docked space shuttle Endeavour, flying at an altitude of 220 mi., were captured •Provide for collaboration with other by Expedition 27 crewmember from the Soyuz TMA-20 following its undocking on May 23. ISS and Soyuz training are the focus for NASA’s Astronaut Corps. governmental and private organizations

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as needed and directed by NASA. •Provide support for public and ed- ucational outreach to society. Flying is why astronauts sign up for this hazardous job. Once Soyuz crew launches resume, probably this month, NASA’s astronauts will continue serv- ing space station tours lasting an aver- age of six months. They will also serve as flight engineers during Soyuz launch and reentry (commanded by a Russian cosmonaut). These fundamen- tal tasks drive of the training re- quirements for ISS crewmembers. Flying is an obvious and core prior- ity, but even when not actively train- ing for a mission, astronauts directly support their colleagues in space. In Mission Control, they work as cap- Heat damage is evident on the Soyuz TMA-11 descent module after landing on April 19, 2008. Astronauts coms (capsule communicators), help will have to respond to similar in-flight emergencies in the era of ISS, Soyuz, and commercial crew flight controllers develop procedures spacecraft. (Photo: Novosti/Aleksandr Pantyukhin) for on-orbit research or maintenance, and verify proposed workarounds for Orion multipurpose crew vehicle, new Russian and six U.S. and international in-flight anomalies by executing them heavy-lift Space Launch System, and partner astronauts. That manifest in simulators or in the Neutral Buoy- advanced concepts for , lunar, drives the overall size of the Astronaut ancy Laboratory at Johnson. and Mars exploration. Corps and the need for new hires. NASA also assigns astronauts to as- As an invaluable national reservoir As the end of the shuttle program sist future spaceflight programs. They of knowledge and corporate memory neared, Johnson’s Flight Crew Opera- track the work of commercial space- on effective operations practices, the tions Directorate shrank the corps size craft developers and provide opera- Astronaut Office fosters the spread of through attrition and reduced hiring. tional input to designers of NASA’s a vigorous within NASA. From a high of nearly 150 in 2000, by Astronauts also work with U.S. early 2011 NASA had just 61 astro- government departments and nauts. That total may drop further as international space agencies, some shuttle astronauts depart and providing technical expertise others are disqualified by medical and coordination of common problems. NASA says it needs a corps, human spaceflight activities. through 2016, of 55 to 60 astronauts. Finally, they are often the That number, based on the direc- highly visible public face of torate’s model of the so-called ‘mini- NASA. Speaking with everyone mum manifest requirement,’ includes from David Letterman to thou- a managers’ margin above the corps sands of eager students, astro- size required to meet the six or so nauts between flight assign- crewmembers flying each year. FCOD ments spend several days each has recently dropped this margin from month crossing the country to 50% to 25%. But that cushion may still represent NASA and its mission not be enough to enable the Astronaut to taxpayers. Office chief to deal with real-world factors affecting astronaut supply and Sizing up the Right Stuff demand. In contrast to the 40 or more For example, each ISS crew slot has astronauts who crewed shuttle a specific skill requirement, such as launches every year, steady- EVA and qualifications, Rus- Progress 44 launched from Baikonur on August 24 on a state ISS operations require the sian language skills, scientific research Soyuz U rocket, bound for the ISS. The Soyuz experienced launch of roughly a dozen experience, or flight experience re- a third-stage engine shutdown due to a faulty gas generator. (Photo: RSC Energia.) crewmembers each year: six quired to serve as an ISS commander

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Soyuz is highly automated and lands under a parachute after a near-ballistic reentry profile, are high-performance jets really an effective way to train for ISS and the Soyuz flight regime? Ground-based mission simulators, in facilities at Russia’s Star City, NASA Johnson, and international partner fa- cilities in Europe, , and Canada, provide approximately 90% of ISS and Soyuz task training. NASA also re- quires crewmembers to fly the T-38N The 2009 class of NASA, JAXA, and CSA astronauts never flew on the shuttle, but will fill the ISS flight for what it calls ‘spaceflight readiness manifest for the coming decade. They are , Scott D. Tingle, Michael S. Hopkins, Gregory R. training,’ or SFRT. Wiseman, Mark T. Vande Hei (front row); Jack D. Fischer, Serena M. Auñón, , Jeanette J. Epps Although jet flying amounts to just (middle row); and David Saint-Jacques, , , , and Kjell N. Lindgren. 10% of the training activity for unas- signed astronauts, shrinking to 5% for or Soyuz flight engineer. But astro- agement increase corps size to com- those assigned to an ISS expedition, it nauts are not interchangeable; they fortably exceed the calculated mini- does expose crewmembers to a fast- have different strengths, and levels of mum needed for flight requirements. paced operational environment that proficiency vary as they move through We think NASA should increase the parallels the dynamic, stressful, and al- their careers. Some may not be eligi- managers’ margin, hiring more astro- ways dangerous spaceflight environ- ble for long-duration flight due to nauts to protect against unexpected at- ment. It’s not just the hands-on jet fly- medical factors: cumulative radiation trition or renewed spaceflight devel- ing that is important, though that has exposure, recovery from injury, or opment tasking in the coming decade. application to Soyuz flying, robotics temporary health problems. (Recently, operations, and delicate EVA tasks. some ISS astronauts have experienced Astronaut wings Making real-time judgments in the inflight vision degradation from - Since 1959, NASA has used high-per- cockpit —dealing with conflicting traf- ing of the eye’s optic disc.) formance jet aircraft to help prepare fic, hazardous weather, and actual air- The result is that the office chief has its astronauts for spaceflight. The Mer- craft failures or emergencies —builds in the past year had trouble finding cury Seven flew F-102s, F-106s, T-33s, experience that helps astronauts react the right astronauts. Of 60 or more eli- and other jet trainers. By the mid- coolly and deliberately when exposed gible astronauts on the books, only six 1960s, NASA had acquired a small to emergency situations in orbit. were actually qualified to step into a fleet of T-38 Talon trainers from the SFRT is accepted by the ISS interna- pair of pending ISS assignments. Air , and astronauts have honed tional partners as a key element in That’s too shallow a talent pool. their physical and mental skills in training qualified spaceflight crews. Providing qualified crewmembers is these sleek, two-seat, twin-engine jets Our panel found that ground simula- vital to the safe and successful opera- for nearly 50 years. But given that the tors, while improving in fidelity, can- tion of the ISS. Our panel found that a corps size of just 55-60 poses a risk to U.S. human spaceflight capability. Fu- ture attrition is difficult to predict, but some returning station crewmembers will decide that the family stresses of another two to three years of intense training, followed by a six-month de- ployment, preclude another expedi- tion assignment. New hiring is not a magic bullet ei- ther, given the long lead times neces- sary to train astronauts for flight (two years from hiring to flight eligibility). For example, an inexperienced astro- naut will be unable to help NASA mount a surge of missions responding to a serious ISS orbital emergency. T-38A Talons fly over NASA Dryden. NASA’s upgraded T-38N trainers provide astronauts with spaceflight We recommended that NASA man- readiness training, a close analog to the dynamic, high-stress, and risky environment of spaceflight.

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not provide the full spectrum of phys- case, thanks to piloting experiences in ical and psychological stresses seen in the Air Force and in NASA’s T-38s, I an actual aircraft cockpit. had a strong sense that “I’ve been here One example of SFRT’s value came before.” I was able to think clearly yet from Astronaut Office Chief Peggy react quickly. Whitson, who related her own expe- Simulators augmented that experi- rience on April 19, 2008, when return- ence, but did not provide the instinc- ing on Soyuz TMA-11 from Expedition tive ability to react rapidly and appro- 16. The station commander and a priately in a dynamic emergency. Ph.D. biochemist, Whitson was serv- Particularly for those astronauts who ing as Soyuz flight engineer during come to NASA without professional reentry; both she and Soyuz com- flight experience, SFRT brings poten- mander Yuri Malenchenko had exten- tial crewmates up to a similar, confi- sive aviation experience. Failure of dent level of operational skill —high as- the Soyuz instrument section to sepa- surance to NASA that they are ready to rate fully from the descent module led meet and exceed the mission’s safety to a sustained 7-g ballistic reentry, and mission requirements. with heat damage to the crew hatch and radio antennas. During descent, High flight smoke penetrated the crew cabin and That astronauts have dealt successfully the crew promptly executed the with hundreds of similar anomalies on emergency steps for an elec- the shuttle and the station —all having trical fire. After an unusually hard had SFRT —made the case to our panel landing, the crew could not immedi- that high-performance aviation con- ately exit the Soyuz —the landing tributes to preparing certified crews retrorockets had started a grass fire. who can get the job done in the de- Whitson believes this real-world manding, unforgiving, and hazardous emergency might have ended less spaceflight environment. Cultivate fresh successfully if she had not trained ex- Our panel recommended that NASA tensively in the T-38. retain its T-38N fleet for use in space- ideas and During Expedition 23 in August flight readiness training, and ensure 2010, during crew sleep, an ISS exter- that the fleet size (projected to shrink help them nal ammonia coolant pump failed and to 16 aircraft in 2013) matches corps shut down half of the solar array out- training requirements. More modern put. Responding to alarms, the crew aircraft could also serve NASA in the take root. executed a swift reconfiguration of the SFRT role, but it is very unlikely the core station systems, working closely agency will be able to afford a new with ground teams to reach a stable fleet of high-performance jets in the power and cooling configuration. They coming decade. The T-38s have un- conducted three critical spacewalks in dergone cockpit, safety, and perform- Live, learn, and work the following weeks to replace the ance upgrades in the last decade, and with a community overseas. pump with a spare, restoring full cool- are poised to provide another 10 years Be a Volunteer. ing and power. The initial stages of or more of reliable service. the emergency required high situa- peacecorps.gov tional awareness, crisp communica- QQQ tions, timely response, and proper With $100 billion in hardware and op- crew resource management, all skills erational effort having gone into the exercised during NASA’s high-perfor- space station’s construction and acti- mance aircraft training. vation, and given its importance to the In September, the Expedition 28 agency’s research and human explo- crew lost communications with Mos- ration plans, continuing astronaut high- cow just before Soyuz reentry yet performance aviation training will as- made a safe and successful landing. sure NASA and its partners that their I’ve had similar experiences, from last- orbital investment will always be in second launch pad aborts to jammed capable hands. Thomas D. Jones EVA hatches to time-critical external [email protected] coolant leaks on the station. In each www.AstronautTomJones.com

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