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Time-Varying Interactions Between Geopolitical Risks and Renewable Energy Consumption
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Cai, Yifei; Wu, Yanrui Working Paper Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 1089 Provided in Cooperation with: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo Suggested Citation: Cai, Yifei; Wu, Yanrui (2020) : Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption, ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 1089, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/238446 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/ www.econstor.eu ADBI Working Paper Series TIME-VARYING INTERACTIONS BETWEEN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION Yifei Cai and Yanrui Wu No. -
Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference by Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J
STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES 11 Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference by Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Center for Strategic Research Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is National Defense University’s (NDU’s) dedicated research arm. INSS includes the Center for Strategic Research, Center for Complex Operations, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, Center for Transatlantic Security Studies, and Conflict Records Research Center. The military and civilian analysts and staff who comprise INSS and its subcomponents execute their mission by conducting research and analysis, publishing, and participating in conferences, policy support, and outreach. The mission of INSS is to conduct strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Unified Combatant Commands in support of the academic programs at NDU and to perform outreach to other U.S. Government agencies and the broader national security community. Cover: Kathleen Bailey presents evidence of forgeries to the press corps. Credit: The Washington Times Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference By Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives, No. 11 Series Editor: Nicholas Rostow National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. June 2012 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. -
How the Pandemic Defeated America Spread
neutered the nation’s ability to prevent the pathogen’s How the Pandemic Defeated America spread. A bloated, inefficient health-care system left hospitals ill-prepared for the ensuing wave of By Ed Yong sickness. Racist policies that have endured since the Updated at 1:12 p.m. ET on August 4, 2020. days of colonization and slavery left Indigenous and Black Americans especially vulnerable to COVID-19. {photo} The decades-long process of shredding the nation’s Caption: Image above: A masked worker cleans a social safety net forced millions of essential workers New York City subway entrance. in low-paying jobs to risk their life for their livelihood. The same social-media platforms that How did it come to this? A virus a thousand sowed partisanship and misinformation during the times smaller than a dust mote has humbled and 2014 Ebola outbreak in Africa and the 2016 U.S. humiliated the planet’s most powerful nation. America election became vectors for conspiracy theories during has failed to protect its people, leaving them with the 2020 pandemic. illness and financial ruin. It has lost its status as a The U.S. has little excuse for its inattention. In global leader. It has careened between inaction and recent decades, epidemics of SARS, MERS, Ebola, ineptitude. The breadth and magnitude of its errors are H1N1 flu, Zika, and monkeypox showed the havoc difficult, in the moment, to truly fathom. that new and re-emergent pathogens could wreak. In the first half of 2020, SARS-CoV-2—the Health experts, business leaders, and even middle new coronavirus behind the disease COVID-19— schoolers ran simulated exercises to game out the infected 10 million people around the world and killed spread of new diseases. -
A Marxist-Leninist Framework Part Two
Marxism-Leninism Currents Today 1 Kurdistan – A Marxist-Leninist Framework Part Two Preface The intersection of the four countries of Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, lies in Kurdistan. As Kurdistan is within these borders, all these must be considered, in any sensible work on the Kurdish national movements. Iran and the Mahabad Republic, in relation to the Kurds, were discussed in Part One. Here in Part Two, we will focus upon Iraq and Turkey, highlighting history relevant to the Kurdish national movement. Part Three will focus upon Syria. In assessing the Kurdish struggles, it is impossible to avoid the details of what now makes up the entire Middle East battle-ground. This term - ‘battle-ground’ - is not hyperbole. For the Middle East now embroils both major imperialists (USA, Russia), and the hitherto client states. The latter are now capable of exerting their own agency to varying extents. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Gulf States, Turkey – while generally subservient to a dominant state (For most of these it is the USA, or in the case of Iran and Syria, it is a co-equal status with Russia) – also have their own separate interests that they pursue. Disentangling these knots is difficult. Hence any history of modern day Kurdish struggles – appears to drown in details of the “Middle East”. We saw in Part One of this work, that the years up to 1946 were bitter for Kurds. But they were to be no less bitter, in the remainder of the 20th century. The prior era set the Ottoman, Russian Imperial and British Empires upon the Kurds. -
CONTACT the Phoenix Project Journal 040908
CONTACT THE PHOENIX PROJECT JOURNAL GOD’S NEW MILLENNIUM KNOWING TRUTH IS NOT ENOUGH— SUCCESSFUL CHANGE REQUIRES ACTION VOLUME 43, NUMBER 9 NEWS REVIEW $ 3.00 SEPTEMBER 8, 2004 Phoenix Gold Warming Sino-RP Relationship? 8/24/04—#1 (18-8) “Phoenix” “mark” is interesting and elusive. NO, I do GOD has never given forth such information as is TUE., AUG. 24, 2004 7:14 A.M. YR 18, DAY 8 not give specific information to simply give ease of dumped onto your human, physical beings—never Manila, Philippines taking out our people in some mystical game of ever! Not in the past, in this present condition, nor “stopya-getcha”. It is OBVIOUS that enemies shall there ever be such manipulative considerations RE: GOLD WARRIORS; PHIL. FISCAL CRISIS- abound at every turn or step as expressed in massive flowing from GOD. INTO THE FIRE—GCH/D postings by the adversarial miscreants. THINGS Our adversaries like to call us a “cult” of some kind MUST UNFOLD PROPERLY AND IN when there is NOT ANYTHING TO EVEN PHILIPPINE GOLD OF MISCELLANEOUS SEQUENCE WHICH ALLOWS UTILIZATION OF REMOTELY CLASSIFY US AS FITTING ANY SOURCES, REAL AND FALSE THE ASSETS AND POSITIVE POSITIONING/ PATTERN OF SUCH IMPUDENCE AND SHARING. ASSUMPTION—NEVER WAS, NOT IS, AND My requests that you avail yourselves of certain To cover truth and clandestine activities there is NEVER SHALL THERE BE! TRUTH IS NOT A books and information are not to simply push books or always false information presented to the public at “CULT”, READERS. TRUTH IS! fill up your time with overload. -
The World's 500 Most Influential Muslims, 2021
PERSONS • OF THE YEAR • The Muslim500 THE WORLD’S 500 MOST INFLUENTIAL MUSLIMS • 2021 • B The Muslim500 THE WORLD’S 500 MOST INFLUENTIAL MUSLIMS • 2021 • i The Muslim 500: The World’s 500 Most Influential Chief Editor: Prof S Abdallah Schleifer Muslims, 2021 Editor: Dr Tarek Elgawhary ISBN: print: 978-9957-635-57-2 Managing Editor: Mr Aftab Ahmed e-book: 978-9957-635-56-5 Editorial Board: Dr Minwer Al-Meheid, Mr Moustafa Jordan National Library Elqabbany, and Ms Zeinab Asfour Deposit No: 2020/10/4503 Researchers: Lamya Al-Khraisha, Moustafa Elqabbany, © 2020 The Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Centre Zeinab Asfour, Noora Chahine, and M AbdulJaleal Nasreddin 20 Sa’ed Bino Road, Dabuq PO BOX 950361 Typeset by: Haji M AbdulJaleal Nasreddin Amman 11195, JORDAN www.rissc.jo All rights reserved. No part of this book may be repro- duced or utilised in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanic, including photocopying or recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Views expressed in The Muslim 500 do not necessarily reflect those of RISSC or its advisory board. Set in Garamond Premiere Pro Printed in The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Calligraphy used throughout the book provided courte- sy of www.FreeIslamicCalligraphy.com Title page Bismilla by Mothana Al-Obaydi MABDA • Contents • INTRODUCTION 1 Persons of the Year - 2021 5 A Selected Surveyof the Muslim World 7 COVID-19 Special Report: Covid-19 Comparing International Policy Effectiveness 25 THE HOUSE OF ISLAM 49 THE -
Detection and Geo-Temporal Tracking of Important Topics in News Texts
Detection and Geo-temporal Tracking of Important Topics in News Texts Erik Michael Leal Wennberg Dissertation for the achievement of the degree: Master in Information Systems and Computer Engineering Jury Chairperson: Prof. Antonio´ Manuel Ferreira Rito da Silva Supervisor: Prof. Bruno Emanuel da Graca Martins Co - supervisor: Prof. Pavel´ Pereira Calado Member of the Committee: Prof. David Manuel Martins de Matos November 2011 placeholder placeholder placeholder Abstract In our current society, newswire documents are in constant development and their growth has been increasing every time more rapidly. Due to the overwhelming diversity of concerns of each population, it would be interesting to discover within a certain topic of interest, where and when its important events took place. This thesis attempts to develop a new approach to detect and track important events over time and space, by analyzing the topics of a collection of newswire documents. This approach com- bines the collection’s associated topics (manual assigned topics or automatically generated top- ics using a probabilistic topic model) with the associated spatial and temporal metadata of each document, in order to be able to analyze the collection’s topics over time with time series, as well as over space with geographic maps displaying the geographic distribution of each topic. By examining each of the topic’s spatial and temporal distributions, it was possible to correlate the topic’s spatial and temporal trend with occurrence of important events. By conducting several experiments on a large collection of newswire documents, it was concluded that the proposed approach can effectively enable to detect and track important events over time and space. -
Computing Semantic Relatedness Using Wikipedia-Based Explicit Semantic Analysis
Computing Semantic Relatedness using Wikipedia-based Explicit Semantic Analysis Evgeniy Gabrilovich and Shaul Markovitch Department of Computer Science Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, 32000 Haifa, Israel {gabr,shaulm}@cs.technion.ac.il Abstract We propose a novel method, called Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA), for fine-grained semantic representation of Computing semantic relatedness of natural lan- unrestricted natural language texts. Our method represents guage texts requires access to vast amounts of meaning in a high-dimensional space of natural concepts de- common-sense and domain-specific world knowl- rived from Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org), the edge. We propose Explicit Semantic Analysis largest encyclopedia in existence. We employ text classi- (ESA), a novel method that represents the mean- fication techniques that allow us to explicitly represent the ing of texts in a high-dimensional space of concepts meaning of any text in terms of Wikipedia-based concepts. derived from Wikipedia. We use machine learning We evaluate the effectiveness of our method on automatically techniques to explicitly represent the meaning of computing the degree of semantic relatedness between frag- any text as a weighted vector of Wikipedia-based ments of natural language text. concepts. Assessing the relatedness of texts in The contributions of this paper are threefold. First, we this space amounts to comparing the corresponding present Explicit Semantic Analysis, a new approach to rep- vectors using conventional metrics (e.g., cosine). resenting semantics of natural language texts using natural Compared with the previous state of the art, using concepts. Second, we propose a uniform way for computing ESA results in substantial improvements in corre- relatedness of both individual words and arbitrarily long text lation of computed relatedness scores with human fragments. -
Covid-19: the Greatest Hoax in History Vernon Coleman
Covid-19: The Greatest Hoax in History The startling truth behind the planned world takeover The scripts of Vernon Coleman’s ‘Old Man in a Chair’ videos for YouTube together with articles from vernoncoleman.com Vernon Coleman Vernon Coleman: What the papers say ‘Vernon Coleman writes brilliant books.’ – The Good Book Guide ‘No thinking person can ignore him.’ – The Ecologist ‘The calmest voice of reason.’ – The Observer ‘A godsend.’ – Daily Telegraph ‘Superstar.’ – Independent on Sunday ‘Brilliant!’ – The People ‘Compulsive reading.’ – The Guardian ‘His message is important.’ – The Economist ‘He’s the Lone Ranger, Robin Hood and the Equalizer rolled into one.’ – Glasgow Evening Times ‘The man is a national treasure.’ – What Doctors Don’t Tell You ‘His advice is optimistic and enthusiastic.’ – British Medical Journal ‘Revered guru of medicine.’ – Nursing Times ‘Gentle, kind and caring’ – Western Daily Press ‘His trademark is that he doesn’t mince words. Far funnier than the usual tone of soupy piety you get from his colleagues.’ – The Guardian ‘Dr Coleman is one of our most enlightened, trenchant and sensitive dispensers of medical advice.’ – The Observer ‘I would much rather spend an evening in his company than be trapped for five minutes in a radio commentary box with Mr Geoffrey Boycott.’ – Peter Tinniswood, Punch ‘Hard hitting...inimitably forthright.’ – Hull Daily Mail ‘Refreshingly forthright.’ – Liverpool Daily Post ‘Outspoken and alert.’ – Sunday Express ‘Dr Coleman made me think again.’ – BBC World Service ‘Marvellously succinct, -
Appendix a the Stock Market Climbs a Wall of Worry the World Is a Scary Place
www.rebalance360.com Appendix A The Stock Market Climbs A Wall of Worry The world is a scary place. Every year, there are new things to worry about. But through it all – World Wars, violence, recessions, depressions, hurricanes, terrorist attacks and other catastrophes – the Global Stock Market has continued to grow over many decades. S&P 500 Year Events Total Returns* 1934 Massive Wall Street reforms passed; National Recovery Act price controls; Hitler declares himself Fuhrer -1% 1935 Italy invades Africa; Hitler rejects Versailles treaty; Dust Bowl; Social Security Act; NRA overturned 47% 1936 Hitler occupies Rhineland; Nazi appeasement; Spanish Civil War; top US tax bracket hits 79% 32% 1937 Short but sharp US recession - Capital spending & industrial production drop; Japan invades China -35% 1938 Nazis annex Austria and invade Czechoslovakia; New England hit by major hurricane 29% 1939 Germany & Italy sign military pact; Britain, France and Poland form alliance Poland invaded, beginning WWII -1% 1940 France falls to Hitler; Battle of Britain; top US income tax bracket over 81%; Wall Street regulations passed -11% 1941 Pearl Harbor; Germany invades USSR; US declares war on Japan, Italy & Germany -13% 1942 Wartime price controls; Battle of Midway; top US income tax bracket over 88% 19% 1943 US Meat & Cheese rationed; price & wage controls; major U-boat attacks; fed. deficit exceeds 30% of US GDP 25% 1944 Consumer goods shortages; Allies invade Normandy; top US income tax bracket hits record 94% 19% 1945 Post-war recession predicted; -
Measuring Geopolitical Risk∗
Measuring Geopolitical Risk∗ Dario Caldaray Matteo Iacovielloz December 3, 2019 Abstract We present an indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles cov- ering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and economic effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, and in the 2003 Iraq invasion. High geopolitical risk reduces U.S. investment, employment, and the level of the stock market. When we decompose the index into threats and acts components, the adverse effects of geopolitical risk are mostly driven by the threat of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with indicators of geopolitical risk at the level of individual firms. We show that investment drops more in industries that are positively ex- posed to aggregate geopolitical risk, and that firms reduce investment in response to higher idiosyncratic geopolitical risk. KEYWORDS: Geopolitical Risk; Economic Uncertainty; Business Cycles; Firm-level invest- ment; Textual Analysis; Earnings Calls. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C1. D80. E32. H56. Latest version at https://www2.bc.edu/matteo-iacoviello/gpr_files/GPR_PAPER.pdf ∗We thank Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Nick Bloom, Ricardo Correa, Steve Davis, Robert Engle, Chris Erceg, Colin Flint, Bo Sun, and seminar and conference participants at various venues. Joshua Herman, Lucas Husted, Andrew Kane, Erin Markiewitz and Patrick Molligo provided outstanding research assistance. All errors and omissions are our own responsibility. The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of anyone else associated with the Federal Reserve System. -
Presidential Campaign Stories That Failed to Ignite Mainstream Media
Tempests of the Blogosphere: Presidential Campaign Stories that Failed to Ignite Mainstream Media D. Travers Scott University of Washington, Seattle [email protected] Scott – Blogs 2 Abstract During the 2004 U.S. presidential campaign, blogs came into their own as a political communications medium. For several years blog champions had promoted the narrative of indefatigable bloggers sniffing out under-the radar stories and challenging mainstream media. However, they were not widely recognized as playing a central journalistic role in the political communications system until blogs fact-checked CBS News' memos regarding President Bush's National Guard Service. Credited with bringing about Dan Rather's retirement, "blog" became the most-searched-for definition online in 2004. But what of blog failures? Among the multitudes of bloggers and their torrents of posts, numerous relevant and engaging stories, such as the Sandy Berger archives theft and the Kerry intern scandal, whipped online muckrakers into a frenzy without achieving commensurate prominence in mainstream media. This paper combines anecdotal observations with findings from a content analysis of four leading political blogs during the last four months of the U.S. 2004 presidential election. Over 6,000 posts referencing the campaign were analyzed for original newsgathering as well as fact- checking other alternative and mainstream news sources across print and broadcast media. By contrasting popular topics in this sample with mainstream media coverage, this paper will identify stories that failed to cross over to mainstream media. Finally, drawing on mass-media news theories such as Gamson's collective action frames and Bennett's concepts of indexing and media strata, this paper will attempt to theorize common attributes of these "blogflops." Introduction: Civic Stories and New Technologies In most theories of participatory, liberal democracy, news and journalism are of critical importance as the tellers of factual stories from which citizens’ informed decision-making is made.