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Valustrat Abu Dhabi Real Estate Review Q4 2018

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Valustrat Abu Dhabi Real Estate Review Q4 2018 QUARTER REVIEW 2018 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market Real Estate Performance Market Intelligence. VPI Simplified. ValuStrat Price Index ValuStrat Price Index Residential -10.9% Q4 Y-o-Y Source: ValuStrat Key Indicators Apartment Villa Apartment Villa Asking Sales Price Asking Sales Price Asking Rents Asking Rents -5.5% -8.9% -5.0% 1.5% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Hotel Hotel Office Office Average Room Rate Occupancy Asking Sales Price Asking Rents -4.8% 0.5% -2.2% -2.7% Jan-Nov Y-o-Y Jan-Nov Y-o-Y Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Sources: ValuStrat, REIDIN, DCTAD 1 | Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market 4th Quarter 2018 Review VPI ValuStrat Price Index Residential The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) is a valuation-based weighted price index that represents the quarterly price change experienced by key residential locations in Abu Dhabi City. The VPI – Residential fourth quarter 2018 stands at 77.6 points, this is compared with 100 points from the base two years ago. Abu Dhabi’s softening residential capital values were 19.5% lower than the same period in 2016, 10.9% lower than last year and 4.3% below the previous quarter. The weighted average residential value this quarter was AED 10,506 per sq m (AED 976 per sq ft), apartments stood at AED 11,657 per sq m (AED 1,083 per sq ft), and villas at AED 7,772 per sq m (AED 722 per sq ft). Abu Dhabi’s gross yields increased to an average of 7.0%, apartments at 7.2% and villas with 6.7%. All ten locations monitored by the VPI witnessed single-digit quarterly declines in capital values. Highest quarterly price falls of 5%-6% were registered for villas in Al Raha and Hydra Village. On an annual basis, apartments on Saadiyat Island and villas located in Mohamed Bin Zayed City were the least affected by the downturn, with capital values declining 7.3% and 7.4% respectively. ValuStrat Price Index 5 Villa and 5 Apartment Locations in Abu Dhabi [Base: Q1 2016=100] 110 100.0 100 95.4 96.4 94.1 92.4 90.3 88.5 90 87.1 85.5 83.8 81.1 77.6 80 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 2017 2018 Source: ValuStrat For more details, please visit www.valustrat.com/vpi MacroEconomicSnapshot • A higher 2019 federal budget of AED 60.3 billion brought by improved oil prices was announced by the UAE government, with 59% allocated mainly to education and social development • Standard & Poor (S&P) affirmed Abu Dhabi’s 'AA/A-1+' sovereign credit rating and gave a stable economic outlook • International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated the emirate’s economy to accelerate 3.7% in 2019 • Latest gross domestic product (GDP) released in October 2018 estimates oil related activities contributed 40.7% to the city’s total GDP • Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi announced total value of Abu Dhabi exports rose 40.9% YoY and reached AED 13.4 billion, as per a report released in December 2018 1,441,000 1,537,000 1,640,000 1,720,000 1,807,000 1,906,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Abu Dhabi City Population Source: Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi • Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) approved ADNOC’s capital expenditure budget of AED 486 billion related to its five-year (2019-2023) growth plan • As of November 2018, the annual inflation rate was 2.1%, softening by 0.4% when compared to the previous month • Housing and Utilities Expenses retreated 4% annually and saw no monthly difference • For the fourth time, US Fed Reserve increased interest rates by a quarter point with UAE Central Bank following suit. As a result, borrowing costs increased Consumer Price Index vs. Housing Index January 2016 – YTD 125 120 115 110 105 100 General Index (2014=100) 95 Housing, Water, Electricity, Jul Gas and Other Fuels Jul Jul Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Feb Sep Sep Jun Dec Nov Nov Aug Aug Feb Feb Sep Mar May May Dec Nov Aug Mar Mar May 2016 2017 2018 Source: Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi 3 | Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market 4th Quarter 2018 Review ResidentialSupply • 3,304 apartments and villas, 62% of the total Abu Dhabi Residential Supply supply expected at the start of 2018 were 2015-2019 300 completed (‘000 UNITS) 2015 250 • Al Reem Island saw 945 apartments completed in City of Lights (550 units), Shams Abu Dhabi (322 units), Najmat Abu 222 200 2016 Dhabi (73 units) 226 • Al Reef 2 located in Al Samha saw 860 villas completed 230 2017 • 1,499 residential units were completed in 230 3.2 Yas Island (549), Al Raha Beach (647) and 0.9 Abu Dhabi Island (303) 235 200 • 2019 is expected to add 3,249 apartments 2018E 3.2 2.9 and 2,867 villas, however, these estimations are subject to downward adjustments 250 Existing 2019E New Apartments* 300 New Villas* 467 *May be subject to significant downward adjustment Source: Urban Planning Council, REIDIN, MEED Projects, ValuStrat ResidentialSales • The median residential asking price fell Residential Asking Sales Prices 6.3% QoQ and 8.3% when compared to last year • The median asking price for ready apartments stood at AED 12,292 per sq m (AED 1,142 per sq ft) displaying a decline of 5.5% QoQ, and 4.7% lower than the same -16.0% -8.3% Last 2 Years Last Year period last year • For ready villas, the median asking price was AED 8,299 per sq m (AED 771 per sq ft). A drop of 8.9% compared to past quarter, 19.1% less than the same period last year -6.9% -6.3% Last 6 Months Last Quarter *Ready Properties Only Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat ResidentialRents • Overall median residential asking rents fell Residential Asking Rents 11% when compared to the same period last year • On a quarterly basis, citywide median asking rents softened by 3.6% • Median apartment asking rents fell 10.9% -13.8% -11.0% Last 2 Years Last Year YoY and 5% QoQ • Citywide villa asking rents saw the first quarterly increase in 3 years of 1.5%, but were 11.1% lower than the same period last year -4.9% -3.6% Last 6 Months Last Quarter Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat Apartment Average Asking Rents (’000 AED Villas Average Asking Rents (’000 AED per Annum) and Quarterly Change (%) per Annum) and Quarterly Change (%) 61 100 Al Reef 76 -1.7% MBZ City 137 -1.8% 97 152 69 118 Al Reem 98 -2.9% Al Reef 143 -1.0% 138 153 87 153 Al Raha Al Muneera -0.5% -2.0% 129 Beach 182 167 230 110 310 Al Bandar 145 3.0% Saadiyat 346 -2.2% 220 430 One Bedroom Three Bedroom Three Bedroom Five Bedroom Two Bedroom Quarterly Change (%) Four Bedroom Quarterly Change (%) Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat 5 | Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market 4th Quarter 2018 Review OfficeRents • Office asking rents in primary commercial Office Asking Rents districts saw a 2.7% drop QoQ and 1.4% less compared to a year ago • The average citywide asking rent for offices sized between 93 sq m (1,000 sq ft) to 186 sq m (2,000 sq ft) stood at AED 915 per sq m (AED 85 per sq ft) -14.0% -1.4% Last 2 Years Last Year • Abu Dhabi main island office rents averaged AED 958 per sq m (AED 89 per sq ft) while in Al Reem Island rental rates averaged AED 850 per sq m (AED 79 per sq ft) -6.1% -2.7% Last 6 Months Last Quarter Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat OfficeSupply • Estimated office Gross Leasable Area Abu Dhabi Office Supply (GLA) completed in Abu Dhabi stood at 2016-2019 51,845 sq m (558,054 sq ft) (Million sq m GLA) 0.26 • An additional 19,810 sq m (213,233 sq ft) office GLA scheduled for 2018 0.07 3.58 were delayed 3.51 • Expected supply until 2020 composes 3.51 of 21 commercial projects from various 3.10 private developers with an estimated GLA total of 331,032 sq m (3.6 million sq ft) 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Existing Stock Expected Supply Source: REIDIN, MEED Projects, ValuStrat RetailSupply • Al Maryah Central was announced to house Retail Malls & Shopping Centres about 40 international brands from global (‘000 sq m GLA) franchise operator Al Shaya Group. Set to open during Q3 2019 1196 • Tamouh Investment’s Paragon Bay with 24,385 sq m (262,456 sq ft) GLA in Reem 706 Island completed construction, it’ll feature no less than 73 shops and cafes • Abu Dhabi City is expected to receive an estimated 317,594 sq m (3.4 million sq ft) GLA of shopping space in the next two years 181 • These includes Khalifa City Mall 55,000 sq m 56 (591,965 sq ft) GLA, Mafraq Mall 35,652 sq m (383,722 sq ft) GLA and Reem Mall 269,000 sq m (2.9 million sq ft) GLA 7 Convenience Neighbourhood Community < 3k sq m 3k-10k sq m 10k-30k sq m Regional Super Regional 30k-90k sq m > 90k sq m Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat RetailPerformance • Aldar’s retail assets posted healthy Number of Malls and Shopping Centres occupancy close to 90%, amidst a very challenging market condition 13 • United Nations Conference on Trade and 11 Development (UNCTAD) 2019 B2C 9 E-commerce Index released in December 7 2018, ranked the UAE as fourth most prepared developing economy for online 3 trade.
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