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Valustrat Abu Dhabi Real Estate Review Q3 2019

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Valustrat Abu Dhabi Real Estate Review Q3 2019 Real Estate Market 3rd Quarter | 2019 Review VPI Residential VPI Residential Real Capital Values Rental Values Estate 70.9 73.8 Performance (Base Q1 2016=100) (Base Q1 2016=100) -12.6% -9.2% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Market Intelligence. VPI Simplified. ValuStrat Price Index Source: ValuStrat Key Indicators Source: ValuStrat, REIDIN, DCTAD Apartment Asking Villa Asking Apartment Villa Sales Price Sales Price Asking Rents Asking Rents 13,219 10,288 111,500 190,300 AED/sq m AED/sq m 2 Bedrooms (AED p.a.) 4 Bedrooms (AED p.a.) -0.8% -7.4% -0.3% -5.4% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Hotel Average Hotel Office Asking Office Asking Room Rate Occupancy Sales Price Rents 374 74% 10,620 836 (AED) Jan-Jun Jan-Jun AED/sq m AED/sq m p.a. 10.9% -0.4% -3.9% 2.8% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Increase Stable Decline 1 | Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market 3rd Quarter 2019 Review VPI ValuStrat Price Index Residential Capital and rental values for Abu VPI - Abu Dhabi Residential Capital Values Dhabi’s residential investment zones 5 Villa and 5 Apartment Locations are tracked by the valuation based [Base: Q1 2016=100] and weighted ValuStrat Price Index. The third quarter VPI - Residential Capital Values declined 2.4% 120 100.0 quarterly to 70.9 points, registering a 96.4 95.4 94.1 100 92.4 90.3 slower rate of decline than the past 4 88.5 87.1 85.5 quarters. 83.8 81.1 77.6 75.1 80 72.7 70.9 Abu Dhabi capital values were 12.6% lower than the third quarter last year, 60 29.1% lower than Q1 2016, the base of the VPI. The weighted average 40 residential value this quarter was AED 9,505 per sq m (AED 883 per sq 20 ft), apartments stood at AED 10,044 per sq m (AED 977 per sq ft), and 0 villas at AED 7,083 per sq m (AED 658 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 per sq ft). 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: ValuStrat All ten locations monitored by the VPI witnessed single-digit quarterly declines in capital values of less than 4%. Apartments in Al Bandar saw marginal quarterly dips of less than VPI - Abu Dhabi Residential Rental Values 1%, while villas in Mohamed Bin 5 Villa and 5 Apartment Locations Zayed City saw no change since Q2. [Base: Q1 2016=100] On an annual basis, typical apartment units located in Al Reem Island and Al 120 Reef saw 15.4% declines, as well as 100.0 98 villas in Hydra Village with 16.2% 96.8 100 93.7 92.3 annual drop. 88.8 88.7 85.2 82.9 82.2 81.3 78.9 77.2 80 75.6 73.8 The third quarter VPI - Residential Rental Values declined 2.4% quarterly 60 and 9.2% annually to 73.8 points. Abu Dhabi’s gross yields averaged 7.4%, 40 with apartments at 7.7% and villas at 6.6%. 20 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: ValuStrat For more details, please visit www.valustrat.com/vpi www.valustrat.com | 2 Macro-Economic Snapshot • Latest GDP at current price estimates from Abu Dhabi Population Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) recorded 3.3% YoY growth to AED 226 billion • Oil GDP grew 11.6% YoY and contributed 2,023,600 39.8% of Abu Dhabi’s overall GDP, equivalent 2018E 1,912,300 to AED 89.9 billion 2017E • The value of exports passing through Abu Dhabi’s seaports grew 14.8% YoY to AED 27.6 1,807,000 billion. However, value of imports declined 2016 7.7% YoY to AED 24.2 billion, as per latest 1,720,000 SCAD announcement 2015 • The UAE Central Bank lowered its interest rate mirroring US Federal Reserve 25 basis 1,640,000 point cuts for the second time this year 2014 • Department of Transport Abu Dhabi and Integrated Transport Centre announced toll 1,537,000 gate system to commence from 1st January 2013 2020, toll charges would cost AED 2 minimum • OPEC+ meeting held in the city discussed possible oil production cut as crude hovered in the low USD 60 per barrel • Latest data from Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED) announced 47% YoY growth in the number of economic licenses issued in the capital • Abu Dhabi International Airport handled 4.5 million passengers during the summer Source: Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi, ValuStrat months Consumer Price Index vs. Housing Index • As of August 2019, the January 2016 – YTD annual inflation rate fell 1.2% and stabilised 125 0.4% MoM • Housing and Utilities 120 Expenses dropped 115 3.6% YoY and no change was recorded 110 when compared to 105 previous month 100 95 Jul Jul Jul Jul Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Feb Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov Aug Aug Aug Aug Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2016 2017 2018 2019 General Index (2014=100) Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels Source: Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi 3 | Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market 3rd Quarter 2019 Review Residential Supply • Abu Dhabi City with an estimated 233,986 Abu Dhabi Residential Supply residential homes stock 2016-2020 (’000 UNITS) • So far this year, an estimated total of 1,000 villas and 733 apartments were completed, which is 31% of the projected 5,590 units for 2019 located primarily in Yas Island, Saadiyat Island and Abu Dhabi Island 2020E • Key expected deliveries this year include 1,450 0.3 3.1 240 apartments in Al Marayah Island, Al Reem 2019E 1.2 4.4 234 Island with 1,413 apartments, Saadiyat Island 2018 with 763 apartments and 83 villas, and Nareel 234 Island with 148 villas 2017 230 2016 • 2020 is expected to add 1,766 apartments in Al 226 Reem Island, 600 in Masdar City, and 283 villas in Khalifa City Current Stock New Apartments* New Villas* *May be subject to significant downward adjustment Source: Urban Planning Council, REIDIN, MEED Projects, ValuStrat Residential Sales • The average citywide residential asking price Residential Asking Prices per square foot declined 2.7% QoQ and fell 6.4% when compared to last year -7.6% -6.4% Last 2 Years Last Year • The average asking price for ready apartments stood at AED 13,219 per sq m (AED 1,228 per sq ft) displaying a marginal dip of 0.8% QoQ, and 5.1% lower than the same period last year • For ready villas, the average asking price was AED 10,288 per sq m (AED 957 per sq ft) -3.9% -2.7% indicating prices are 7.4% below the previous Last 6 Months Last Quarter quarter and 9.5% lower than a year ago Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat * Ready properties located within investment areas www.valustrat.com | 4 Residential Rents • Overall average residential asking rents fell Residential Asking Rents 9.2% when compared to the same period last year -16.7% -9.2% • On a quarterly basis, citywide average asking Last 2 Years Last Year rents fell 2.4% • Average apartment asking rents in Abu Dhabi City dropped 7.6% YoY but remained stable since Q2 • Citywide villa asking rents declined 11.6% YoY and 5.4% QoQ • Asking rents for villas in Saadiyat Island were 2.2% higher than Q2, while marginal or no -4.3% -2.4% change in asking rents were recorded for Last 6 Months Last Quarter villas in Al Reef and Raha Beach as well as apartments in Al Muneera, Al Bandar, Saadiyat Island and Al Reem. However, villas in MBZ City witnessed steeper quarterly fall in rents of 7.1% • The average occupancy rate among a sample Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat of more than 60,000 units stood at 79.6% * Ready properties located within investment areas Average Asking Rents (’000 AED per annum) and Quarterly Change (%) Apartments Villas 56 87 Al Reef 72 -2.3% MBZ City 130 -7.1% 88 135 65 107 Al Reem 90 -0.7% Al Reef 135 -0.5% 130 145 83 154 Al Muneera 121 0.0% Al Raha 172 -0.2% 155 220 100 302 Al Bandar 135 0.7% Saadiyat 324 2.2% 205 450 One Bedroom Three Bedroom Three Bedroom Five Bedroom Two Bedroom Quarterly Change (%) Four Bedroom Quarterly Change (%) Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat 5 | Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market 3rd Quarter 2019 Review Office Supply • An estimated 74,409 sq m (800,931 sq ft) Abu Dhabi City Office Supply GLA has been completed so far in 2019, 2016-2020 equivalent to 31% of projected supply for (Million sq m GLA) this year • The remaining 69% or 165,269 sq m (1.78 million sq ft) GLA is expected to be completed before year end 0.11 0.24 • Eclipse Twin Towers with 51,590 sq m 3.82 3.58 (555,294 sq ft) GLA, Reem Tower 1 with 3.58 3.51 27,650 sq m (297,614 sq ft) GLA and Al Mansouri Commercial Tower having 3.10 14,364 sq m (154,608 sq ft) GLA which were initially reported to finish construction early this year are now slated for completion by end of 2019 • The under-construction Parsons regional headquarters in Capital District with approximately 29,400 sq m (316,459 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E sq ft) GLA expected completion date has been moved to second quarter 2020 Existing Stock Expected Supply Source: REIDIN, MEED Projects, ValuStrat • WeWork announced to open its first UAE co-working facility at Abu Dhabi’s Hub71 Office Rents • Office asking rents in primary commercial Office Asking Rents districts were up 2.8% QoQ, however, on an annual basis were down 11.6% -13.1% -11.6% Last 2 Years Last Year • The average citywide asking rent for offices sized between 93 sq m (1,000 sq ft) to 186 sq m (2,000 sq ft) fell to AED 840 per sq m (AED 78 per sq ft) • Abu Dhabi main island commanded lease rates which averaged at AED 850 per sq m (AED 79 per sq ft) while average office rents in -7.3% 2.8% Al Reem Island stood at AED 786 per sq m Last 6 Months Last Quarter (AED 73 per sq ft) • The average occupancy among buildings within the city’s central business districts stood at 79% Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat www.valustrat.com | 6 Retail Supply • The Galleria Al Maryah Island expansion was Abu Dhabi City Retail Malls and opened boasting an estimated 23,226 sq m Shopping Centres 720 (250,000 sq ft) GLA, with 250 shops, 70 dining (‘000 sq
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