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Summary of Community Economic Performance Analysis

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Summary of Community Economic Performance Analysis Summary of Community Economic Performance Analysis JUNE 2007 Prepared for: Island Coastal Economic Trust in association with Eric Vance & Associates 2395 LAKEWOOD DRIVE Planning & ManagementVANCOUVER Consultants BC, V5N 4T8 P: 604.762.6901 E: [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY ................................................................................1 Methodology................................................................................................................. 1 Population in Context .................................................................................................... 2 2. DATA ANALYSIS FOR MUNICIPALITIES ...........................................................................3 2.1. Growth.................................................................................................................. 3 2.2. Reliance on Resource Industries.............................................................................. 7 Employment by Place of Work ........................................................................................ 7 Employment by Place of Residence................................................................................. 8 Resource Employment Index ........................................................................................ 10 2.3. Remoteness ........................................................................................................ 10 3. DATA ANALYSIS FOR NON-MUNICIPAL AREAS...............................................................12 3.1. Growth................................................................................................................ 12 3.2. Reliance on Resource Industries............................................................................ 14 Employment by Place of Residence............................................................................... 14 3.3. Remoteness ........................................................................................................ 16 4. CLASSIFICATION OF COMMUNITIES..............................................................................18 4.1. Municipalities...................................................................................................... 18 1:3 Matching.............................................................................................................. 18 1:2 Matching.............................................................................................................. 19 1:1 Matching.............................................................................................................. 19 4.2. Non-Municipal Areas............................................................................................ 19 Cowichan Valley Regional District ................................................................................. 20 Regional District of Nanaimo........................................................................................ 21 Alberni-Clayoquot Regional District ............................................................................... 21 Regional District of Comox-Strathcona........................................................................... 22 Regional District of Mount Waddington.......................................................................... 23 Powell River Regional District....................................................................................... 23 Sunshine Coast Regional District .................................................................................. 23 4.3. Complete Matching Regimes................................................................................. 24 1:3 Matching Regime .................................................................................................. 24 1:2 Matching Regime .................................................................................................. 25 1:1 Matching Regime .................................................................................................. 25 APPENDIX .........................................................................................................................27 I Summary of Community Economic Performance Analysis 1. BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY The purpose of the community economic performance analysis described in this summary report is to enable the Island Coastal Economic Trust (ICET) to determine the appropriate level of matching funding that ICET will provide to projects from each of the communities in the geographic region it serves. The ICET Application Guidelines outline three potential levels of matching funding: 1. 1:1, or equal matching, which is intended for “smaller, remote and resource dependent communities”; 2. 1:2, meaning that ICET funds no more than one-third of the project cost, which is intended for “rural and smaller urban communities that are experiencing growth and relative economic prosperity”; and 3. 1:3, meaning that ICET funds no more than one-quarter of the project cost, which is intended for “larger, urban communities”. Methodology The evaluation of communities, particularly smaller communities, is always constrained by the availability of quality data that can be compared across all jurisdictions. Due to these constraints, the decision was made to evaluate communities on the basis of three main factors: (1) growth, (ii) reliance on resource industries, and (iii) remoteness. Communities that have experienced more growth are clearly in less need of funding support, while communities with a high reliance on resource industries are in need of greater support to diversify their economies and ensure a sustainable economic future. Remoteness has also been identified as a factor affecting economic development such that more remote communities face greater challenges and are therefore in greater need of assistance. The specific calculations for each of these three factors are discussed in the next two sections. Section 2 addresses the incorporated municipalities in the ICET area, while Section 3 considers unincorporated areas and First Nations reserves. Municipalities are considered separately because there is more data available at the municipal level than for unincorporated communities and reserves. Please note that the District of Lantzville and the Sechelt Indian Government District, although both incorporated, are shown in Section 3. Lantzville was not incorporated until after the 2001 Census so there is less available data, while comparable labour force data is also not available for the Sechelt IGD for 2001. Section 4 uses the analysis of the previous two sections to sort each community into the appropriate matching category. 1 Summary of Community Economic Performance Analysis Population in Context Prior to the detailed analysis of the communities in the ICET area, it is useful to understand the distribution of population within the region. According to the 2006 Census, total population in the seven regional districts that comprise the ICET area had a total population of just over 400,000. Of this total, about two-thirds reside in incorporated municipalities, about 3% in First Nations reserves, and the remaining 31% in unincorporated areas. The large share of population residing in unincorporated areas underlines the need to consider these areas separately in assessing their economic performance. Vancouver Island is somewhat unique in the province for the share of population in unincorporated areas – provincially, only 11% of the population resides in those areas. Table 1. Distribution of Population by Type, 2006 Type 2006 Population Share of ICET Total Cities 176,688 43% District Municipalities 46,636 11% Towns 37,929 9% Villages 6,397 2% Indian Government District (Sechelt) 844 0.2% Total Municipal 268,494 66% Unincorporated Electoral Areas 127,669 31% Reserves 10,665 3% ICET Total 406,828 100% Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census Reserves 3% Electoral Areas 31% Cities 44% IGD 0.2% Villages 2% Districts Towns 11% 9% 2 Summary of Community Economic Performance Analysis 2. DATA ANALYSIS FOR MUNICIPALITIES This section provides detailed analysis of the economic performance of municipalities in the ICET area, with the exception of Lantzville, which was not incorporated as of the 2001 Census, and the incorporated Sechelt Indian Government District, for which comparable data is also not available. 2.1. Growth The best measure of economic growth at the community level is employment, which is only available for individual municipalities from the Statistics Canada Census. The required employment data from the 2006 Census will not be released until February 2008, so the most recent data that is available is from 2001. Growth rates over the 1996 to 2001 period are no longer relevant, so employment data is NOT included in the calculation of a growth index. Alternatively, population data from the 2006 Census was recently released, allowing growth rates over the 2001 to 2006 period to be calculated. Population and employment growth are highly correlated so population data is considered to be a good indicator of general economic growth. Table 2. Municipal Population Growth, 2001 to 2006 2001 Average Annual Population Growth Municipality Population* 2006 Population Growth Index (BC=100) Courtenay 19,166 21,940 2.7% 266 Tofino 1,466 1,655 2.5% 238 Ladysmith 6,811 7,538 2.0% 199 Sechelt 7,775 8,454 1.7% 164 Qualicum Beach 7,849 8,502 1.6% 156 Nanaimo 73,000 78,692 1.5% 147 Gibsons 3,906 4,182 1.4%
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