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Research on the Influence of Real Estate Development on Private sustainability Article Research on the Influence of Real Estate Development on Private Investment: A Case Study of China Jiangtao Li 1,†, Jianyue Ji 2,3,†, Huiwen Guo 2,* and Lei Chen 4 1 Institute of Management, Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; [email protected] 2 School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; [email protected] 3 Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China 4 Faculty of Education and Social Work, University of Auckland, Auckland 1023, New Zealand; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-0532-6678-2568 † These authors contributed equally to this work. Received: 28 June 2018; Accepted: 25 July 2018; Published: 28 July 2018 Abstract: Private investment in China, as a developing country, is an important source of financing for Chinese SMEs (Small and Medium-Size Enterprises) and has played a major role in the development of the real economy. However, in 2016, the growth rate of private investment in China dropped from 10.18% to 3.17%, which had a significant impact on the real economy. At the same time, China’s real estate market has developed rapidly, attracting a large number of capital inflows. The relationship between real estate development and private investment in China is worth considering. This study first, theoretically analyzes the influence mechanism of real estate industry on private investment, pointing out that within a modest development range, the development of real estate industry can promote private investment through the industrial linkage, urbanization, and balance sheet effects, but when real estate is overdeveloped, it has an inhibitory effect on private investment through vampire effect, raising costs and reducing demand effect. In other words, real estate has different effects on private investment in different developmental periods. Therefore, there is a non-linear relationship between the two variables. Second, the relevant provincial panel data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2003 to 2015 were selected. Using the dynamic panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), this study estimated the correlation between real estate development and private investment. The empirical results showed that the development of the real estate industry has a significant impact on the level of private investment; the two showing an “inverted U-shaped” relationship. At present, in some provinces in China, the real estate industry has exceeded the inverted U-shaped threshold. To boost the vitality of private investment in promoting real economic growth, the development of the real estate industry should be restricted, and house prices should be properly regulated. Keywords: private investment; real estate industry; system GMM; inverted U-shaped; dual attributes of real estate; house prices 1. Introduction Since the reform and opening up, China’s Non-Public Economy has been gradually applauded. After the establishment of a socialist market economy, the private economy has experienced rapid growth, and accordingly, private investment has developed with renewed vigor. Relevant data show that in recent years, the private economy has created about 60% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and about 80% of social employment and has become an important foundation for stabilizing China’s economy. The role of private investment in economic growth has also drawn the attention Sustainability 2018, 10, 2659; doi:10.3390/su10082659 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018,, 10,, 2659x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 17 China’s economy. The role of private investment in economic growth has also drawn the attention of ofgovernment government departments. departments. The The 13th 13th Five Five-year-year Plan Plan explicitly explicitly states states that that private private enterprises enterprises should should be berequired required to toset set foo foott in inmore more areas areas by by law law to to stimulate stimulate the the vitality vitality and and creativity creativity of of the non-publicnon-public economy. UntilUntil 2016,2016, privateprivate investmentinvestment accounted accounted for for more more than than 60% 60% of of the the total total social social investment investment in fixedin fixed assets, assets, far exceeding far exceeding public public investment. investment Compared. Compared with public with investment, public investment private investment, private isinvestment characterized is characterized by high economic by high efficiency economic and efficiency strong competition,and strong competition, which can release which tremendous can release vitalitytremendous in stimulating vitality in consumption, stimulating expandingconsumption, employment expanding and employment stimulating theand national stimulating economy. the Althoughnational economy. public investment Although canpublic effectively investment boost can demand effectively in the boost short demand term and in the guarantee short term normal and economicguarantee growth,normal someeconomic scholars growth, point some out that scholars in the point long run, out thethat proper in the growthlong run, of the private proper investment growth isof theprivate fundamental investment guarantee is the fundamental of high-level guarantee economic of development high-level economic [1]. development [1]. However, since 2012, 2012, the the growth growth rate rate of of private private investment investment in inChina China has has been been declining declining and and,, in in2016 2016 it turned it turned into into a aser seriousious “stalling “stalling”” problem. problem. As As shown shown in in Figure Figure 1,1, the year-on-yearyear-on-year (YoY)(YoY) growth of private investment remained above 30% until 2011 and maintained a steady high-speedhigh-speed growth. Then it declined from 2012 to 2015 but remained above 10%. However, in 2016 the grow growthth rate dropped to 3.17%, showing a steep decline, which attracted wide spread attention of relevant departments and scholars. 40,000.00 60 35,000.00 50 30,000.00 40 25,000.00 20,000.00 30 15,000.00 20 10,000.00 10 5,000.00 0.00 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Private Investment (Billion RMB) YoY Growth of Private Investment (%) Figure 1. The amount of private investment in China and its year-on-year (YoY) growth. Source: Figure 1. The amount of private investment in China and its year-on-year (YoY) growth. Source: Wind Databases. Wind Databases. In sharp contrast to the stalling of private investment, China’s real estate industry has been developingIn sharp at contrasta high level. to the Since stalling the 1990s, of private the expansion investment, of China’surbanization real estate in China industry has led has to been the developingfast-growth atof athe high real level. estate Since industry the 1990s,[2]. The the real expansion estate market of urbanization reform in 1998 in China contributed has led to the fast-growthbooming development of the real estateof the industryreal estate [2 industry.]. The real In estate 2000, marketChina’s reform residential in 1998 real contributed estate sales towere the booming322.86 billion development yuan, while of in the 2015 real they estate rose industry. to 7.28 trillion In 2000, y China’suan, with residential an average real annual estate growth sales were rate 322.86of 23.1%, billion much yuan, higher while than in that 2015 of they GDP rose over to the 7.28 same trillion period. yuan, The with average an average sales annualprice of growth residential rate ofreal 23.1%, estate much also increased higher than from that 1948 of GDP yuan over per square the same meter period. in 2000 The to average 6473 y salesuan per price square of residential meter in real2015, estate with an also av increasederage annual from growth 1948 yuan rate of per 8.3%. square As shown meter inin 2000Figure to 2, 6473 with yuan the exception per square of meter 2008, inwhen 2015, it was with influenced an average by annual the financial growth crisis rate, ofand 8.3%. 2014, As when shown it was in Figureaffected2, withby high the inventory, exception the of 2008,year-on when-year it wasgrowth influenced of house by theprices financial remained crisis, andabove 2014, 5%, when indicating it was affectedthat China by high’s real inventory, estate theindustry year-on-year has been growth in a state of house of rapid prices development. remained above 5%, indicating that China’s real estate industry has been in a state of rapid development. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2659 3 of 17 Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 17 7000 30 6000 25 5000 20 4000 15 3000 10 2000 5 1000 0 0 -5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Residential real estate sales price (yuan/square meter) YoY growth of average selling price (%) Figure 2.2. Average sellingselling pricesprices ofof residentialresidential housinghousing inin ChinaChina andand YoYYoY growth.growth. Source:Source: NationalNational Bureau of Statistics of China. Excluding 2008 and 2014, we observe that before 2012, the trend of house prices in China is Excluding 2008 and 2014, we observe that before 2012, the trend of house prices in China is basically in line with that of private investment, both of which have been growing steadily and the basically in line with that of private investment, both of which have been growing steadily and the growth rate of private investment is relatively high. However, after 2012, private investment seems growth rate of private investment is relatively high. However, after 2012, private investment seems to to have crossed the inflection point, and its growth rate has been declining year by year. At the have crossed the inflection point, and its growth rate has been declining year by year. At the same same time, house prices have maintained a relatively steady growth rate, and the two have shown time, house prices have maintained a relatively steady growth rate, and the two have shown opposite opposite trends of development.
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