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Nuclear Energy Outlook – 2008 Nuclear Energy Outlook – 2008 This Nuclear Energy Outlook (NEO) is the first of its kind and Nuclear Energy Outlook – 2008 responds to the renewed interest in nuclear energy by many OECD member countries. World energy demand continues to grow unabated and is leading to very serious concerns about security of supply, soaring energy prices and climate change stemming from fossil fuel consumption. Nuclear energy is being increasingly seen as having a role to play in addressing these concerns. This Outlook uses the most current data and statistics available and provides projections up to 2050 to consider growth scenarios and potential implications on the future use of nuclear energy. It also offers unique analyses and recommendations on the possible challenges that lie ahead. NUCLEAR ENERGY OUTLOOK Topics covered by the NEO include nuclear power’s current status and projected trends, environmental impacts, uranium resources and security of supply, costs, safety and regulation, radioactive 2008 waste management and decommissioning, non-proliferation and security, legal frameworks, infrastructure, stakeholder engagement, advanced reactors and advanced fuel cycles. www.nea.fr (66 2008 08 1 P) € 105 -:HSTCQE=UZYVUX: ISBN 978-92-64-05410-3 NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY Erratum Nuclear Energy Outlook 2008 ISBN 978-92-64-05410-3 Page 278 Table 9.2: “Annex 2” states whose ratification is necessary for entry into force of the CTBT* State Ratification State Ratification Algeria 11 July 2003 Israel Argentina 04 Dec. 1998 Italy 01 Feb. 1999 Australia 09 July 1998 Japan 08 July 1997 Austria 13 March 1998 Korea 24 Sept. 1999 Bangladesh 08 March 2000 Mexico 05 Oct. 1999 Belgium 29 June 1999 Netherlands 23 March 1999 Brazil 24 July 1998 Norway 15 July 1999 Bulgaria 29 Sept. 1999 Pakistan Canada 18 Dec. 1998 Peru 12 Nov. 1997 Chile 12 July 2000 Poland 25 May 1999 China Romania 05 Oct. 1999 Colombia 29 Jan. 2008 Russia (USSR) 30 June 2000 Democratic People’s Slovakia 03 March 1998 Rep. of Korea Democratic Rep. of 28 Sept. 2004 South Africa 30 March 1999 the Congo Egypt Spain 31 July 1998 Finland 15 Jan. 1999 Sweden 02 Dec. 1998 France 06 April 1998 Switzerland 01 Oct. 1999 Germany 20 Aug. 1998 Turkey 16 Feb. 2000 Hungary 13 July 1999 Ukraine 23 Feb. 2001 India United Kingdom 06 April 1998 Indonesia United States Iran Viet Nam 10 March 2006 * Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation at: www.ctbto.org. “Annex 2” states are those which participated in the June 1996 Disarmament Conference and which, at that time, possessed either a nuclear power or nuclear research reactor. Erratum Nuclear Energy Outlook 2008 ISBN 978-92-64-05410-3 Page 344 Figure 12.4: Severe accident indicators for OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1969-2000. The X-axis should read “Fatalities per GWe/year”. Page 440 Figure A4.3: Comparison of frequency-consequence curves for full energy chains The line labelled “CLPGoal China 1994” should read “Coal China”. Preface This Nuclear Energy Outlook, issued on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), is the first of its kind and responds to the renewed interest in nuclear energy by member countries. “Outlooks” are a recognised trademark of the OECD, with well-known regular volumes on economy, energy and environment for example. This new Outlook broadens the range of key issues addressed in these authoritative books. In 2008, the NEA has 28 member countries, and some non-member coun- tries also contribute to our work as formal observers in our committees and subsidiary bodies. Some 85% of installed nuclear capacity is operated in our member countries, but their positions regarding nuclear energy vary widely from firm commitment to firm opposition to its use. The role of the Agency is to provide factual studies and balanced analyses that give our members unbiased material on which they can base informed policy choices. There is no doubt that the problems associated with modern society’s consumption of energy are serious and growing more so on a daily basis. There is now widespread agreement that the practices of the past are not sustainable. In the OECD family, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that, with current government policies across the world, total primary energy and electricity demands will increase respectively by more than 50% and 90% by 2030, and that the great majority of this increase will be met by fossil fuel sources. Against this backdrop, global climate change and security of energy supply are key issues raising concerns for our policy makers. The IEA estimates that, in a business-as-usual scenario, CO2 emissions will be some two and a half times greater than today by 2050. On the other hand, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that, to contain global warming to a manageable 2°C, CO2 releases in 2050 must be only half of their present levels. As for security of supply, fossil fuel resources are consumed at an ever-increasing rate and competition for dwindling supplies is becoming fiercer. As a result, the price of fossil fuels, in particular oil and gas, is increasing steadily, threatening economic growth worldwide. Nuclear energy is an established technology offering a reliable option to address these issues. More efficient use of energy, renewable sources, and carbon capture and storage are important components of the response to security of supply and climate change challenges, but no option should be overlooked. Nuclear energy is part of the solution; the size of its contri bution will depend as much on the capabilities of governments and the nuclear industry to address society’s concerns about safety, radioactive waste disposal and the proliferation of nuclear weapons as it will on its economic competitiveness. 2 Today, with an installed capacity of around 370 GWe and an annual production of some 2 700 TWh, nuclear power supplies 16% of the world’s electricity. Using authoritative electricity demand estimates for 2030 and 2050, the NEA elaborated its own scenarios of nuclear energy development. Designed to illustrate possible future contributions of nuclear energy to global supply, the low and high projections assume respectively that other nearly carbon-free technologies are successful and that nuclear energy technology performance fulfils present expectations. The outcome is a range of 4 300 to 10 500 TWh for nuclear electricity generation worldwide in 2050. In either case, nuclear energy will remain an important part of the energy supply landscape in the coming decades. This Outlook explores the concerns surrounding the use of nuclear energy. It presents data, information and analysis that form a basis for the evaluation of those concerns. It investigates uranium and fuel cycle service supply capabilities, health and environmental impacts of nuclear and alternative fuel chains for electricity generation, nuclear safety, waste management and disposal approaches being implemented in member countries, public and political acceptance issues, as well as proliferation resistance and security. Looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, the Outlook provides insights into nuclear technology developments expected in the coming decades. It explores advanced reactor designs and fuel cycles, and also nuclear energy’s potential non-electricity uses such as for desalinating water, hydrogen production and process-heat supply for industrial applications. In this connection, it gives an overview of international collaboration in the field of nuclear energy research and development, and of initiatives to enhance the sustainability of nuclear energy from the technical and policy viewpoints. Policy makers are facing major challenges in the field of energy demand and supply management. There is a general recognition that all technologies have their advantages and disadvantages, and that no option should be dismissed before thorough comparative analysis. While the risks associated with nuclear energy development in terms of financing, safety, waste management, weapons proliferation and physical protection raise some public concerns, overall they are by no means higher than risks associated with alternative energy sources, and the mechanisms to control them are already in place. Nuclear energy plays a substantial role today and could play an even larger role as the 21st century progresses. I hope that this book will help member countries in deciding on the relevance and importance of the nuclear option while designing and implementing their national energy policies. This book was prepared by the NEA Secretariat with some external assistance and is published under my responsibility. The views expressed in this outlook do not necessarily represent those of NEA member country governments. Luis E. Echávarri NEA Director-General 3 Acknowledgements The Nuclear Energy Outlook was developed by a team within the Nuclear Energy Agency, under the overall guidance and management of Luis Echávarri, the Director-General. The Deputy Director for Science and Development, Thierry Dujardin, provided leadership and inspiration throughout the project. Stan Gordelier, the Head of the Nuclear Development Division, proposed the content and was the project leader, with overall responsibility for the development of the study. Particular thanks are due to three external expert peer reviewers, all of whom have held a number of very senior posts in the nuclear industry. They provided highly valuable advice on the first draft of this book. They are: Dr. Nils Diaz, who
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