AFRICAN FUTURES 2030 | FREE TRADE, PEACE and PROSPERITY European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)
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CHAILLOT PAPER / PAPER CHAILLOT 164 AFRICAN FUTURES 2030 AFRICAN FUTURES 2030 AFRICAN Free trade, peace and prosperity Edited by Giovanni Faleg | FREE TRADE, PEACE AND PROSPERITY PEACE TRADE, FREE With contributions from Paul M. Bisca, Edward K. Brown, Enrico Calandro, Jakkie Cilliers, Mesfin Gebremichael, Joachim Isacsson, Fergus Kell, Olivier Lavinal, Katariina Mustasilta, Luigi Narbone, Carlo Palleschi, Carlo Papa, Patryk Pawlak, Clara Portela, Melanie Robinson, Nicolò Sartori, Fabrizio Tassinari, Bernardo Venturi, Alex Vines and Sean Woolfrey CHAILLOT PAPER / 164 February 2021 European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) 100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris http://www.iss.europa.eu Director: Gustav Lindstrom © EU Institute for Security Studies, 2021. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union. print ISBN 978-92-9198-983-6 online ISBN 978-92-9198-982-9 CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-008-EN-C CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-008-EN-N ISSN 1017-7566 ISSN 1683-4917 DOI 10.2815/750 DOI 10.2815/458263 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Belgium by Bietlot. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021. Cover image credit: Bella The Brave/unsplash AFRICAN FUTURES 2030 Free trade, peace and prosperity Edited by Giovanni Faleg With contributions from Paul M. Bisca, Edward K. Brown, Enrico Calandro, Jakkie Cilliers, Mesfin Gebremichael, Joachim Isacsson, Fergus Kell, Olivier Lavinal, Katariina Mustasilta, Luigi Narbone, Carlo Palleschi, Carlo Papa, Patryk Pawlak, Clara Portela, Melanie Robinson, Nicolò Sartori, Fabrizio Tassinari, Bernardo Venturi, Alex Vines and Sean Woolfrey CHAILLOT PAPER / 164 February 2021 Acknowledgements As the editor of this Chaillot Paper, I would like first and foremost to express my gratitude to all the authors and the institutions they represent and who agreed to participate in this initiative, leading thematic working groups and organis- ing consultations with experts, academics, pol- icymakers and other stakeholders. Specifically: the United Kingdom’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), Research ICT Af- rica, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa, the Istituto Affari Internaziona- li, the ENEL Foundation, Chatham House, the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) of the University of Addis Ababa, the European University Institute’s School of Transnational Governance (EUI-STG), the African Centre for Economic Transformation (ACET), the Europe- an Centre for Development Policy Management The editor (ECDPM) and Thinking Africa. Second, I would like to thank International Crisis Group, the Giovanni Faleg is the EUISS Senior Ana- European Institute of Peace and the Europe- lyst responsible for analysis and research on an External Action Service for their coopera- sub-Saharan Africa. Before joining the EUISS, tion as observers during the work of the Task he worked at the World Bank, the Centre for Force, and the World Bank Group for hosting European Policy Studies (CEPS) and the Isti- the launch of the Task Force in its Paris office. tuto Affari Internazionali (IAI). He holds a PhD Third, I am also grateful to the staff at the EU- in European Studies from the London School of ISS, and particularly trainees Carlo Palleschi Economics and Political Science. and Jeanne Ramier, for their professional- ism and invaluable support to the Task Force in the past year. Finally, several experts have crossed our path during this journey, in some The EUISS Chaillot Paper series cases providing input to the thematic work- ing groups, or inspiring our study otherwise. The Chaillot Paper series, launched in 1991, One of these experts was Dr. Mamoudou Barry, takes its name from the Chaillot hill in the a young Guinean scholar murdered on 19 July Trocadéro area of Paris, where the Institute’s 2019 in Rouen. Mamoudou was due to represent first premises were located in the building oc- Thinking Africa at the first informal retreat of cupied by the Western European Union (WEU). the Task Force, which took place just a few days The hill is particularly known for the Palais de after the attack in which he lost his life, and Chaillot which was the site of the signing of the could have contributed to this endeavour. This UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in Chaillot Paper is published in his memory, and 1948, and housed NATO’s provisional head- in defence of all victims of violence and racism. quarters from 1952 until 1959. 1 CONTENTS Executive Summary 2 CHAPTER 3 Introduction 4 What could have gone wrong? 68 Objectives 4 Plagues of Africa: extreme weather Methodology 8 and climate change 68 Policy relevance 9 A digital odyssey: digital regression 70 Structure 11 A grim decade: expansion of violent extremism 71 The Greater Depression: economic collapse 74 Gomorrah: a wave of urban revolutions 75 Lords of war: armaments proliferation 76 CHAPTER 1 No man’s land: failure of the state 78 The Sahel’s global public bad: Imagining Africa in 2030 16 violence and organised crime 81 The scenario: 2030, an integrated and Black-out: energy shortfalls 84 prosperous Africa 16 Seablindness: fragility at sea 85 The stress test: exogenous shocks in East Africa 19 The journey: 10 trends unlocking integration in 10 years 21 CHAPTER 4 Policy lessons from the future 89 CHAPTER 2 For a greener African future 89 For a digital African future 91 What went right? 45 For a non-violent African future 92 A new breadbasket for the world: For a productive African future 93 the environmental future 45 For a civic African future 95 Bit-continent: digitalisation for all 47 For a disarmed African future 95 Get up, stand up: non-violent mobilisation 49 For a well-governed African future 96 The roaring twenties: the Fourth For a secure African future 97 Industrial Revolution 51 For a decarbonised African future 98 Pleasantville: African cities in 2030 56 For a blue African future 99 Silenced guns: a treaty on conventional forces in Africa 57 Conclusion 101 Agora: improved governance and service delivery 59 Lead 101 Concert of Africa: security and trade integration 60 Connect 102 Lighthouse: electricity generation 62 Bind 102 Atlantis: the blue economy in 2030 65 Share 102 Build 102 Mobilise 103 Abbreviations 104 Notes on the contributors 106 2 African futures 2030 | Free trade, peace and prosperity EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Chaillot Paper is the outcome of a Task Force and prosperity, by unlocking positive trends on African Futures, launched in November 2019 for integration. These thematic areas have been by the EUISS in partnership with leading Afri- chosen because they are vital to sustain a free can and European research institutions. The trade area, by addressing security, sustainabil- Task Force identified the implementation of the ity needs, or acting as enablers for growth. African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a key factor driving economic, technologi- 1. Environment: The expansion of Africa’s cal and societal transformations in Africa in the agro-processing sector and agricultural next decade. Hence, its members committed to policy reform makes Africa the ‘world’s new analyse what the future in 2030 could look like, breadbasket’ if the AfCFTA is fully achieved, reflecting on > (By Melanie Robinson and Joachim Isacsson, the main drivers that could have an impact on Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, shaping intra-African free trade by 2030. UK Ministry of Defence) Among the multiple possible futures for Africa, 2. Digitalisation: Inclusive digitalisation ac- this publication has selected a favourable one, celerates positive trends in connectivity, leading to integration, peace and prosperity. impacting societies and the nature of trade Using a strategic foresight methodology called and work, and lays firmer foundations for ‘backcasting’, the authors contributing to this the indigenous development of technology report have imagined a 2030 reality in which > (By Patryk Pawlak, EUISS, and Enrico Calandro, all African states are participating in the Af- Research ICT Africa) CFTA, most of them have removed tariffs on 90% or more of their intra-African trade, and 3. Conflict: Non-violent mobilisation creates the trade area extends to customs investment, a positive cycle of inclusive national politics, intellectual property, competition policy and with broad condemnation of violent repres- e-commerce. In this scenario, the implementa- sion of opposition movements, and civic en- tion of the AfCFTA has paved the way for deep- gagement in implementing the AfCFTA er economic integration, producing economic > (By Katariina Mustasilta, Finnish Institute for growth, fostering innovation and social pro- International Affairs) gress, and contributing to peace, stability and poverty reduction. Cities like Johannesburg, 4. Jobs: In the ‘roaring twenties’, the Fourth Addis Ababa, Casablanca and Abidjan have be- Industrial Revolution creates an unprece- come leading global economic hubs; the African dented number of jobs in Africa, increasing Union now has a stronger voice in influencing the revenue available to governments, and global affairs; e-commerce has facilitated the translating into more service delivery creation of 20 million jobs per year between > (By Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies) 2027 and 2030; and the Trans-African highway network connects African cities: Dakar-Lagos,