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Iraq: the Way Forward—A Political Strategy to Win & End the War in Iraq

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Iraq: the Way Forward—A Political Strategy to Win & End the War in Iraq University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 6-1-2009 Iraq: The Way Forward—a Political Strategy to Win & End the War in Iraq Krikor P. Mosses Derhagopian University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Derhagopian, Krikor P. Mosses, "Iraq: The Way Forward—a Political Strategy to Win & End the War in Iraq" (2009). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 158. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/158 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. Iraq:- The Way Forward A Political Strategy To Win & End the War In Iraq __________ A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver __________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in International Studies __________ by Krikor P. Mosses Derhagopian June 2009 Advisor: Paul R. Viotti 1 ©Copyright by Krikor P. Mosses Derhagopian 2009 All Rights Reserved Author: Krikor P. Mosses Derhagopian Title: Iraq the Way Forward A Political Strategy to Win & End the War in Iraq. Advisor: Professor Paul R. Viotti. Degree Date: June 2009. ABSTRACT The challenges to stability, unity, and democracy in Iraq are typically characterized as factional (sectarian and ethnic) or as struggle against the presence of foreign troops. However, this assumption remains largely erroneous. The problems and challenges in Iraq are actually and overwhelmingly the result of power struggles, and the competition for resources by political elites, and dominant political factions. The political and electoral system emplaced in Iraq incentivizes elites and political entities to undertake factional identities; in doing so, it promotes identity politics. The current system also fails to filter the contests for power through the electoral system. As such, fragmentation within the government is maximized, and the political system in Iraq becomes one that promotes extremism and incorporates extremist views, thus, creating paralysis and hindering progress. Consequently, this study proposes redesigning the Iraqi electoral system in a way that compels elites to secure cross-factional support. Such an approach will force political elites and candidates to undertake median and moderate approaches to win and will promote moderate ii elites who must gain the support of the people. This will allow reconciliation efforts to progress steadily and will put Iraq on the right path for consolidating its nascent democracy. Vitally important, such a system will provide for democratic consolidation and sustainability without the need of external interference. The challenge, however, is in deciding how to introduce such an institutional redesign due to entrenched interests of parties and elites that are served under the current system. The current political system in Iraq is parliamentarian; it follows the concept of infusion of powers and is based on ―consensus‖ and informal consociation. The electoral system in Iraq is a closed-party-list proportional representation. This study proposes an alternative political and electoral system. As a substitute political system, this study proposes a hybrid system that largely follows the concept of separation of powers. Under this system the chief executive—as opposed to the head of state—will be directly elected by the people through a customized majoritarian system that conditions victory in elections not only on achieving 50+% of the vote, but also on achieving certain thresholds in 16 out of the 18 Iraqi provinces. Thus, only candidates who are acceptable to all the ―components‖ of Iraqi society will assume the responsibility of governing Iraq. iii The Presidency Council—the head of state—can follow the consociational principle, and remain as it is now. At present, the presidency council in Iraq—which will give over power to a President in the next elections—consists of a President and two Vice Presidents. The presidency council‘s members are representatives of the three major components of the Iraqi society—Shiite, Sunni, and, Kurd. This can remain unchanged, voted in by parliament. In fact, preserving this would check the strong Prime Minister proposed under this system. As such, transparency, accountability, decisiveness, and cohesion, will be combined with oversight. As for elections to the legislature, this study proposes to convert the electoral rules to single-member districts. Districts must be delineated in such a way that candidates will largely compete against people of their own (sectarian or ethnic) identity. Hence, candidates will be unable to invoke their identities as credentials to win elections. Where possible, minorities in districts will be included so that serious candidates competing against others from their-own identity will be forced to appeal also to people other than their identities. This will further compel candidates to undertake moderate stands. Essentially, the proposed system enhances the accountability of elected officials to the electorate; it promotes substantive politics rather than descriptive politics in Iraq; and it allows for the steady consolidation iv of democracy. The proposed system also maintains unity within the executive branch, and opens the way for reconciliation, reconstruction, the provision of services and security, and political stability. v Table of Contents: Introduction ........................................................................... 1 Chapter I: The Essence of the Problem in Iraq and Means To Mitigate It ............................................................................ 11 Chapter II: The Political and Electoral System in Post Saddam‘s Iraq—Flawed And Malfunctioning ........................ 18 Chapter III: History—A Source For Lessons, And, Remedies . 50 Chapter IV: Reforming the Iraqi Electoral system ................ 60 Conclusion ............................................................................ 82 Bibliography ....................................................................... 107 vi The strategic objective of Operation Iraq Freedom (OIF) was to establish constitutional democracy in a unified and stable Iraq, and to facilitate the Iraqi society‘s embrace of free market capitalism as well as social moderation, tolerance, and pluralism, to include respect for human, minority and women‘s rights. The international policy vision informing the plan was to institute changes that would start a domino effect of democratization cascading throughout the Middle East.1 Operation Iraqi Freedom after a spectacular success in the initial military phase, turned into a chronic security problem,2 and after more than six years, has yet to achieve its objectives.3 There remain many security challenges in Iraq, for example: sectarian and ethnic tensions are rampant, and serious human rights violations remain very common:4 1 Michael R. Gordon and General Bernard E. Trainor, Cobra Ii: The inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq, First ed. (New York: Random House Inc., Pantheon Books, 2006). 73 & 433. And: Peter W. Galbraith, The End of Iraq (New York: Simon & Schuster Paperbacks, 2006). 5, 9 & 10. 2 Colonel Jabbar Naeemah Karam, ―Post-Transition Violence in Iraq (2004-2005): The Military Perspective of an Insider‖ (U.S. Army War College, 2006). 5. 3 James A. Baker III and others, The Iraq Study Group Report (United States Institute for Peace, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Center for the Study of the Presidency (CSP), and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, 2006). 9 ―Saddam Hussein has been removed from power and the Iraqi people have a democratically elected government that is broadly representative of Iraq‘s population, yet the government is not adequately advancing national reconciliation, providing basic security, or delivering essential services. The level of violence is high and growing. There is great suffering ….‖ 4 "Iraq: Torture Continues at Hands of New Government : Police Systematically Abusing Detainees", Human Rights Watch http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2005/01/24/iraq- torture-continues-hands-new-government (accessed 03/29/ 2009). And: Peter Beaumont, "Abuse Worse Than under Saddam, Says Iraqi Leader," The Guardian, 11/27/ 2005. And: Human Rights Report 1 January – 30 June 2008, (UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), 2008). 2 ―grave human rights violations that are less widely reported, and the elimination of which requires long-term political commitment remain 1 The country appears heading towards a theocracy rather than a democracy,5 and, acts of violence committed by non-state actors in all of its forms—terrorism,6 insurgency,7 and, militias—are still very much of a threat to Iraq‘s stability.8 Everyone knowledgeable of the situation recognizes that politics is at the heart of such challenges and forms of violence.9 As presented by the Iraq Study groups: unaddressed.‖ And: "Un: Human Rights Abuses in Iraq Still Widespread ", Voice of America http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2008-12/2008-12-02- voa66.cfm?CFID=152390694&CFTOKEN=29163464&jsessionid=883095ddcec5e6eb864 0343c664b3c2f78b5 (accessed 03/26/ 2009). And: III and others.
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