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China's Digital Economy―Assessing Its Scale, Development Stage

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China's Digital Economy―Assessing Its Scale, Development Stage China’s Digital Economy―Assessing Its Scale, Development Stage, Competitiveness, and Risk Factors By Yuji Miura Advanced Senior Economist Economics Department Japan Research Institute Summary 1. According to a think-tank affiliated with China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Chinese digital economy accounted for 32.9% of the country’s total GDP in 2017. China is also moving to harness economic activity in high-tech and patent-intensive in- dustries as part of its “new economy”, which is believed to have contributed 22.7% of GDP in 2016. 2. Organizations outside of China have also started to monitor the digital economy. The Inter- national Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that in 2015 the U.S. digital economy accounted for 9.3% of total GDP. If we limit our definition of the digital economy to ICT industries, the con- tributions to GDP in 2015 were 8.3% in the United States and 7.1% in China. 3. In China, the scale of the digital economy tends to be overestimated due to the inclusion of sectors other than ICT. Moreover, there has been little discussion about the risks of digitaliza- tion, including job replacement. 4. As in the U.S., the digital economy in China is a substantial contributor to nominal GDP growth, accounting for approximately 10%. However, the factors driving the growth of the Chi- nese digital economy are expected to weaken as the e-commerce (EC) market matures and the number of smartphones shipped decreases. 5. In terms of the development stage of it digital economy, China is currently one step below the global front runners. The same is true of the competitiveness of the Chinese digital economy. However, China’s platformers, especially the BATs (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent), derive their competitive strength from the size of their user bases, and their competitiveness is comparable to that of their U.S. counterparts. 6. However, the development of China’s digital economy does not necessarily mean that China is making steady progress with its market-oriented economic reforms. Around 40% of all lending to non-financial corporations in China goes to state-owned enterprises, and if the gov- ernment sector is included the ratio rises to 70%. While the Chinese economy appears extremely strong if we focus solely on the digital economy, we need to remember that the digital economy still accounts for less than 10 % of GDP with a contribution of just 7.4% in 2017. 7. China could face several issues in the near future with the potential to threaten the develop- ment of its digital economy. First, to what extent can major IT companies maintain an appropri- ate distance from the government? Second, will new market entrants emerge to challenge the BATs? Third, how should China address the increasing income disparity that is accompanying the growth of the digital economy? 2 RIM Pacific Business and Industries Vol. XVIII, 2018 No. 70 Introduction recent years, the spotlight has tended to focus only on the former. Digital technology is transforming How should we assess China’s economic out- the Chinese economy by continually creating new look? Depending on the area on which we focus, businesses and employment opportunities. This the answers to this question are likely to be more growth momentum is strong enough to convince diverse than in the past. In recent years, attention people that it will be possible to disregard the var- has focused primarily on the rapid expansion of ious problems affecting China, such as excessive China’s digital economy (数字経済 in Chinese), debt and declining investment efficiency. as symbolized by the success of major Internet-re- Yet attempts to quantify the digital economy lated companies like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent have only just begun, even at the international (known collectively as the “BATs”). According to level, and we have not even established definitions the China Academy of Information and Commu- of what constitutes the digital economy. In this ar- nications Technology, a think tank affiliated to the ticle, we will focus on the rapidly growing digital Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, economy and consider its position in the China China’s digital economy accounted for 32.9% of economy. In Part 1 will analyze the nature of the GDP and 22.1% of jobs in 2017(1). digital economy. In Part 2 we will look at ways to In fact China’s digital economy continues to assess the scale of the digital economy. This will achieve remarkable growth. According to McK- be followed in Part 3 by an analysis of approaches insey, China’s share of world e-commerce trans- to the assessment of the development stage and actions has risen from less than 1% in 2005 to competitiveness of China’s digital economy. In 42.4% in 2016 and is now substantially higher Part 4, we will examine several risk factors inher- than the U.S. share of 24.1%. By 2016, mobile ent to the digital economy and show that growth payments in China had reached $790 billion, and development are not unconditionally guaran- which is 11 times the total for the United States teed. (Wang et al. [2017]). These figures are symbolic of the rapid development of the Chinese digital economy. On the other hand, China has many problems, 1. Classifying the Digital Econ- including excessive debt. There has been little omy According to Business improvement in the structural tendency of state- Models owned enterprises to accumulate excessive debt, and the fragility of the financial system means that unforeseen events cannot be ruled out (Miura Interest in the digital economy has intensified [2018]). There has also been a marked decline in dramatically in step with technological innovation investment efficiency. The amount of investment and the resulting rapid adoption of digital technol- required to generate a yuan of GDP has risen from ogy, as well as the emergence of giant IT com- 4 yuan in 1998-2007, to 5.7 yuan in 2008-2017, panies in both the United States and China. The and 6.9 yuan in 2017(2). The continuing ineffi- mechanism through which attention has focused ciency of the old economy, which is dominated by on IT companies is similar to the pattern that state-owned enterprises, remains a heavy burden emerged during the IT bubble in the United States on the Chinese economy. in the second half of the 1990s. However, trends These phenomena are all symbolic of China in today’s digital economy, such as the emergence today. However, views on the Chinese economy of the Internet of things (IoT) linking all physical vary according to which aspect is emphasized. objects, the development of artificial intelligence Some sectors are overflowing with vitality that (AI), and the use of big data, are spreading to a has thrust China into the lead on a global scale, wide range of industries. In that sense, the impact while others still rely on outmoded structures. In of the digital economy on society and economy RIM Pacific Business and Industries Vol. XVIII, 2018 No. 70 3 could be comparable to or perhaps even greater specific meaning of the term is often left vague. than the impact of the Industrial Revolution. The main drivers of the digital economy are obvi- The United Nations Conference on Trade and ously companies that have achieved rapid growth Development (UNCTAD) has concluded that the by creating business models based on the use of digital economy is decisively different from the ICT, such as Alphabet (which provides the Google earlier IT bubble for the following reasons (UNC- search engine), Amazon, and Facebook. In the re- TAD [2017]). First, new products and services mainder of this article, we will attempt to catego- are being created through the analysis of mas- rize the digital economy and provide an overview sive amounts of data that are being obtained from of it based on the companies that support the digi- smartphones, factory sensors, and other sources tal economy, and on the business models devel- and accumulated in the cloud. Second, new types oped by each of those companies. of businesses are emerging through the use of Fig. 1 provides an overview of the digital econ- platforms as infrastructure for the distribution of omy based on an analysis by UNCTAD. The digi- information, products, and services. Third, the tal economy can be divided into infrastructure and performance of information and communications digital activities based on the use of that infra- technology (ICT) in the form of both software and structure. The infrastructure segment can be fur- hardware has improved to a level at which the use ther divided into communications and IT. Compa- of AI and machine learning can become common- nies that manufacture terminal equipment, devel- place. op software, and provide IT services fall into the Although the phrase “digital economy” appears latter category. The digital segment can be broadly frequently in newspapers and other media, the divided into (1) platforms, such as search engines, Fig. 1 Classifying the Digital Economy ̶Digital̶ Platforms Digital solutions Digital content E-Commerce Searching: Alphabet (US), Electronic payments: Media: Internet retailing: Baidu (China), First Data (US), Comcast (US), Amazon (US), Yahoo! (Japan) PayPal (US), Time Warner (US) Alibaba (China), SNS: Facebook (US), Worldpay (US), JD.com (China), Tencent (China) Alibaba (China), Games: Tencent (China), Travel: Auctions: E-Bay (US) Tencent (China) Information: Booking Holdings (US), Sharing: Airbnb (US), Cloud: ADP (US), Thomson Reuters (US) Expedia (US) Uber (US), Salesforce (US) Didi Chuxing (China) Entirely digital (pure digital) Mixed (partially non-digital) ̶Infrastructure̶ IT (hardware and software) Hardware: Apple (US), Samsung (South Korea), Hon Hai Precision Industry (Taiwan), Xiaomi (China), Huawei (China) Software: Microsoft (US), Hewlett Packard (US), Oracle (US) Telecommunications AT&T (US), Verizon (US), China Mobile (China) Notes: Some data items, such as company names, have been revised by the author.
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