NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN: & HULUGHO DISTRICTS PERIOD: JULY 2013

WARNING STAGES Livelihood Stage Trend Zone

Pastoral Alert Worsening Alert Worsening Agro pastoral Formal employment/ Alert Worsening

Casual labor

Alert Worsening Seasonal calendar District

Short Dry Spell Long rains Long dry spell Short rains

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

 Milk yield drops  High milk yield  Low milk availability  High milk yield  Livestock moves  Livestock towards the  Livestock moves towards  Livestock moves moves traditional wet the fall back dry season towards traditional towards dry grazing areas grazing areas(Boni forest) wet seasons grazing season areas grazing zones  High calving,  Increased human-wildlife kidding and conflicts  Gathering and lambing rates.  High mating rates consumption  Weaving and  High labour demand of wild berries handcrafting  Restocking and fruits. activities.  Culling of stock  Opportunistic crop  Herd  Restocking and farming separation de-worming Lean period for the pastoralists

Lean period for  Forage survey the pastoralists  Crop farming activities  Wedding ceremonies

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, JULY 2013/ IJARA & HULUGHO DISTRICTS Page 1

Situation overview  Scattered costal showers were received in some parts of Ijara and Hulugho district in the month under review. These included Hulugho, Ijara, and Sangailu and Bodhai divisions. However , the quantity was too low to make positive impact on pastoral and agro pastoral production  Food prices of most essential commodities continued to increase in some areas while others remained the same .The most affected area was Bodhai agro pastoral livelihood because of the poor infrastructure  All livestock herds especially cattle were camped in Boni forest and the northern parts of County.  The quality and quantity of browse and pasture continued to decline in all the livelihoods in the month under review. The most affected areas were Warsame , Korisa and Gababa locations  The volume of water in major water pans/dams continued to reduce virtually in all the livelihoods .The most affected areas were Warsame and Boni where the water available was anticipated to sustain the communities for two weeks  The average prices of cattle increased from Kshs.17, 981.80 in June 2013 to Kshs. 18,060.00 in July 2013 while average price of goat dropped from Kshs. 2,710.60 in preceding month to Kshs 2,547.40 in this reporting month. On the same note the prices of sheep increased from Kshs. 2,222.60 in June 2013 to Kshs 2,348.30 in July 2013.  The body condition for all categories of livestock was rated fair in all the livelihoods  The percentage of children under 5 years old considered to be at risk of malnutrition based on the Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurement (<135 mm ) significantly increased from 14.07% recorded in June to 16.04% recorded in July 2013. This may have been attributed to low milk production due to poor quality of browse and pasture that did not improve livestock body condition.  The average distance from households to water sources increased from 1.45 km in the previous month to 1.61 km in the month July 2013 while average distance between grazing areas increased from 8.91 km in June 2013 to 9.18 km recorded in July 2013. The average time taken by households per water drawing session during the month under review increased from 46 minutes recorded in the previous month to 57 minutes this reporting month of June 2013.  Cases of FMD and LSD were reported in Ijara and Sangailu divisions with minimal death .No major livestock disease outbreak reported in the month under review. However Tsetse fly infestation remained a menace in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods.  No outbreak of human diseases reported  Generally, the drought situation in the two districts is at ALERM stage with WORSENING trends.  RECOMMENDATIONS TO DISTRICT AUTHORITIES AND KFSSG BY DSG  General food distribution to continue and be expanded to cover more beneficiaries.  Provide livestock drugs subsidy for farmers especially in the treatment of trypanosomiasis.  Introduce Food for Asset programmes to build resilience.  Continue supplementary programme for the children under five years old, lactating and pregnant mothers  Provision of treated mosquito nets and undertake spraying and fumigation of settled areas.  .Promotion of household based water treatment measures as the quality of water continued to worsen because of contamination.  Strengthen on-going health outreach services, stockpile drugs and provide adequate number of health personnel and logistics especially at rural health facilities.  Intensify livestock vaccination against FMD, SLD, CBPP and CCPP.  Continue with the School Meals Programme.  Boost distribution of certified seeds, farm implements and promotion of drought tolerant crops varieties for the next season farming

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, JULY 2013/ IJARA & HULUGHO DISTRICTS Page 2

1.0 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS (STABILITY)

1.1.0 Rainfall  Scattered costal showers were received in Hulugho, Sangailu, Ijara and Bodhai divisions in the second decade of the month. The rains had minimal impact on livestock production and absolutely no impact on crop production because of low quantity.

1.2.0 Condition of Natural Vegetation and Pasture.  The forage condition continued to worsen in all the livelihoods .The browse have dried and withered while pasture have considerably reduced in quality and quantity save for areas adjacent to Boni forest. The worst affected areas were Gababa and Warsame locations where the large stock has moved to Boni forest in search of better pasture and water. The livestock population in both districts were concentrated in Boni forest and there is likelihood of conflict occurring between pastoralists of Ijara and farmers in witu of Lamu over utilization of the resources

1.2.1 Distance to Grazing Areas  The distance covered by livestock from concentration camps to grazing areas increased from 8.91 km in the month of June 2013 to 9.18 km in July 2013. The increased distance was as a result of reduced quantity and quality of browse and pasture across all livelihood zones following the onset of the dry spell.

1.3 Water Sources and Availability

1.3.1 Water sources In Boni and Warsame locations of Ijara division have water stress that needs urgent intervention. Warsame location was experiencing water stress as the long rains were inadequate to recharge sufficient water in the pans. However, the population was using a small hand dug water pan that was anticipated to last for one week. The quality of the water was poor because of contamination from livestock, domestic and wildlife use posing the risk of communicable diseases outbreak .There were no water treatment chemicals given to the community besides lack of awareness on the importance of boiling the water .On the same note Boni agro pastoral has water stress and currently relaying on natural lagga at a distance of 12km. Similarly Hulugho location has water stress as the quality and quantity of the water available in Hulugho dam drastically reduced. In Masalani division, Gababa location was the most affected where the whole population depending on one communal water pan for domestic use while the livestock trek to River Tana for water and pasture in the riverine area. The trekking distances was 12km. Also korisa in Masalani division, the grazing area was far from the water sources at a distance of 21km. The long trekking distance will have negative impact on the livestock body condition .However, the water available in other parts of the larger Ijara district was estimated to last for two months. The observed trend was not normal when compared with the same period of a normal year season.

1.3.2 Average distance (KMs) to water sources

 The average distance from households to water sources increased from 1.45 km in the previous month to 1.61 km in the month of July 2013 while average distance between grazing areas and water sources increased from 8.91 km in June 2013 to 9.18 km recorded in July 2013.

. In Masalani division, Gababa location was the most affected where the livestock trek to River Tana for water and pasture in riverine area at a distance of 12km. Also korisa in Masalani division, the grazing area was far

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, JULY 2013/ IJARA & HULUGHO DISTRICTS Page 3 from the water sources at a distance of 21km. The long trekking distance will have negative impact on the livestock body condition. The observed trend was not normal when compared with the same period of a normal year. The increased distances between the water sources and grazing areas will have negative impact on livestock body condition because of trekking  The average time taken by households per water drawing session during the month under review increased from 46 minutes recorded in the previous month to 57 minutes in this reporting month of July 2013.This will have negative impact on the household economy because of reduced time to engage in other productive work

1.4 Emerging issues 1.4.1 Conflicts/ insecurity/human displacement.  Most of the livestock in Ijara and Hulugho districts have moved and concentrated in Korani and Wito in thus creating tension between the pastoralists and farmers in Lamu.  Tension was reported between pastoralists in masalani division and community over utilization of the river resources.  Increased rural urban migration because of loss of livelihood  There was insecurity along and border that rendered some areas inaccessible. For example Adanwabi agro pastoral could not be accessed during long rains 2013 food security assessment  Land grabbing within the Boni forest following the launch of the Lamu port project has increased.  Timber lumbering in the Boni forest.

1.4.2 Migration

The livestock of Ijara especially cattle was concentrated in Korani and Witu in Lamu County. There were reported cases of dispute over utilization of resources between the pastoralists from Ijara district and Lamu farmers .In addition to this the same has been reported in Gababa area of Masalani division where the community has moved to the riverine area in search of pasture and water raising tension between the community and their counterpart in Tana River .

1.5 Implication on food security. The above conditions had negative impact on household food security because of the following reasons.  Poor flow of market for both livestock trade and food commodities  Lack of livestock buyers /low demand causing livestock prices to reduce  The business community fear to invest in areas where there is insecurity

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, JULY 2013/ IJARA & HULUGHO DISTRICTS Page 4

2.0. RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS (FOOD AVAILABILITY)

2.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

2.1.1 Livestock body condition

 The body condition of all categories of livestock was rated fair in all the livelihood zones across the two districts. The observed trend was not normal when compared with good seasons in the preceding years. In addition to this tsetse fly infestation remained a threat to the economic growth of the pastoralists because it causes trypanosomiasis that was attributed to high livestock mortality in the district

2.1.2 Livestock diseases.  There were reported cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine pre pneumonia (CBPP). Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) but with minimal mortality . However, there was no major livestock diseases outbreak.

2.1.3 Milk Production.

 Milk production decreased slightly from 1.95 (750ml bottles) in June to 1.90 (750ml bottles) per households in July 2013 across the districts. Milk consumption also dropped from 1.65 to 1.58 (750ml bottles) in this reporting month. This was attributed to the poor quality of browse and pasture.  This outcome had a significant negative impact on the nutritional status of children under five years as the production was below average as evident from the upward trend of the malnutrition status of the under five years

3.0 ACCESS TO FOOD 3.1. Livestock marketing

3.1.1 Cattle prices  During the month under review, the average price of cattle increased from Kshs.17, 045.50.00 recorded in June 2013 to Kshs. 18,060.00 recorded in July 2013.This increment maybe as a result of increased demand of cattle in the external market. However, the animals were sold in external markets in Garseni and . However, the prices of the livestock within the district had drastically reduced as there were no buyers and no proper market. The communities were manipulated by middle men who buy the animals at a throw away price  This trend was normal in such season of the year and had positive impact on food security

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, JULY 2013/ IJARA & HULUGHO DISTRICTS Page 5

Average Cattle Prices 25000

20000 15000 10000

Prices in Kshs in Prices 5000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cattle long term 2004-2012 8439 8422 8298 8780 9297 8544 8813 8970 9025 8750 9855 10224 Cattle prices for 2013 14454 14360 14171 16565 19331 17982 18060

N=240

 The highest cattle prices were recorded in Sangailu pastoralists’ livelihood zone at Ksh. 24,500 while Abaltiro agro-pastoralist zone recorded lowest price at Ksh 13,366.70 both sold at Garseni market  However the price recorded in the month was much higher than the same period of the reference year (2004-2012) by Ksh. 8,970.00

3.1.2 Goat prices  The average prices of goats decreased from ksh. 2,710.60 in June 2013 to Kshs. 2,547.40 recorded in this reporting period. The decline in price was attributed to the lack of browse and vegetation hence poor body condition exhibited by this category of stock during the reporting period.

 Abalatiro Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had recorded the highest prices at Ksh 3,140.00 while Galmagalla pastoralists’ livelihood recorded the lowest price level at Ksh 1,857.00

 The average price was much higher than Kshs. 1,657.00 recorded for the same period of the reference year (2004-2012).  This trend had negative impact on household food security.

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, JULY 2013/ IJARA & HULUGHO DISTRICTS Page 6

Average Goat Prices 3500 3000

2500 2000 1500

Prices in Kshs in Prices 1000 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Goat long term 2004-2012 1505 1409 1575 1606 1529 1606 1657 1764 1735 1835 1946 1760 Goat prices for 2013 2446 2981 2666 2746 2861 2711 2547

N=240

3.1.3 Sheep prices.  The average price of sheep slightly increased from ksh. 2,222.60 in June 2013 to Kshs. 2,348.30 in July 2013.  Sangailu pastoralist livelihood zone recorded the highest price at Ksh 3,050.00 while Galmagalla pastoralist livelihood zone recorded lowest at Ksh. 1,733.30.  The price was higher than the Kshs.1,155.00 recorded for the same period of the reference year (2004- 2012)  The trend had positive impact on household food security.

Average Sheep Prices 2500

2000

1500

1000 Prices in Kshs. in Prices 500

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sheep long term 2004-2012 1055 1038 992 1064 1112 1155 1126 1142 1178 1233 1300 1313 Sheep prices for 2013 1909 2020 1977 2092 2189 2223 2348

N=240

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3.2 Livestock sales

 Livestock sales in all categories declined significantly. This trend was not normal when compared with the same period of the reference years as pastoralists tend to sale more livestock during the dry spell and also the purchasing power of communities was low. The low sale of livestock was attributed to lack of livestock market in the district coupled with low demand  Cattle sales rate dropped from 1.22 % recorded in June 2013 to 0.89% recorded in July 2013 while goat sales decreased significantly from 1.33 % to 1.02% during this reporting period. Sheep sales rate also dropped down from 1.84% recorded in the June 2013 to 1.02% recorded during the month under review.

3.3 Milk consumption  Milk consumption also dropped from 1.65 to 1.58 (750ml bottles) in this reporting month. This was attributed to the poor quality of browse and pasture which had negative impact on livestock body condition and production in terms of milk yield and market value.  Highest milk consumption rates were recorded in Abalatiro agro-pastoralist livelihood zones at 2.17 (750ml) bottles per household while Bodhai agro-pastoralist livelihood zone recorded the lowest consumption levels at 0.5 bottles per household.

3.4 Food prices The prices of most foodstuffs slightly increased except rice and may have been attributed to the increased global fuel prices and short supply of commodities due to impassable roads damaged by the rains.

3.4.1 Maize The average price of 1 kg of maize increased from Kshs. 33.30 in June to Kshs. 38.30 in July 2013. The highest price was recorded in Masalani Peri-Urban at Kshs. 50.00 per kg while Bodhai agro- pastoralist livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Kshs. 25.00 per kg. The price was much higher than the Ksh. 24.50 long term mean average price.

Average Maize Prices Vs Reference Year Prices 50 45

40

35 30 25 20

Prices in Kshs in Prices 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Maize Long-term mean Prices 21 21.6 24 23 22 22 24.5 25 23.6 23.6 23.6 26 2004-2013 Maize Prices 2013 40 45 40 40 40 33.3 38.3

N=20

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3.4.2 Rice

 The average retail price of 1kg rice remained the same at Kshs. 76.25 in this reporting month. Bodhai agro-pastoralists livelihood area recorded highest price at Ksh 100.00 while the lowest price was captured in Ijara pastoral and Abaltiro agro-pastoral livelihoods areas at Ksh. 70.00  The current average price was much higher than the Ksh 57.00 recorded during the same period of the reference year (2004-2012).  The trend was not normal and had negative impact on household food security.

Average Rice Price Vs Reference Yr Prices 90.00 80.00

70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 Price in Kshs. in Price 20.00 10.00 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rice Long-term mean Prices 61.00 56.00 53.00 55.00 54.00 56.00 57.00 55.00 57.00 57.00 57.00 61.00 2004-2012 Rice Prices 2013 73.00 73.50 71.40 72.00 75.70 76.25 76.25

N=20

3.4.3 Sifted maize meal  The average price of 1 kg sifted maize meal dwindled from Ksh. 70.00 in June 2013 to Kshs. 66.25 in July 2013. The highest prices were recorded in Bodhai agro-pastoralists’ area at Ksh 80.00 while Sangailu pastoralist livelihood zone recorded the lowest prices at Ksh. 60.00  This was much higher compared to the Ksh 44.00 recorded during the same period of the reference year (2004-2012)  The trend had negative impact on household food security as the purchasing power of most households was very low.

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, JULY 2013/ IJARA & HULUGHO DISTRICTS Page 9

Shifted Maize Average Price 80 70 60 50 40 30

Price in Kshs. in Price 20 10 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sifted maize meal long term 40 38 40 41 43 44 43 44 44 46 47 mean 2004-2012 Sifted maize meal prizes 2013 70 66.2 67.9 71.4 70 66.25

N=20

3.5 Income sources During the month under review, livestock sales, remittance and casual labour were the major income sources for the sampled households. The rate of livestock sales had decreased from 25% in June 2013 to 20% in July 2013 while casual labour remained stabilized at 36% in this month under review .On the same note remittances increased from 21% in June 2013 to 24% in July. Casual labour remained the highest source of income in July 2013. The current income sources of the sampled households are as illustrated in the pie chart below:

SALE OF WOOD FORMAL PETTY TRADING GIFTS ITEMS PRODUCTS EMPLOYMENT 4% 1% 5% SALARY 10%

CASUAL LABOUR 36%

SALE OF LIVESTOCK 20%

REMITTANCES 24%

N=240

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4.0 HUMAN WELFARE INDICATORS (UTILISATION OF FOOD)

4.1. Malnutrition (MUAC) rate

 Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurement (<135 mm ) increased from 14.07% recorded in June to 16.04% recorded in July 2013. This may have been attributed to low milk production due to poor quality of browse and pasture that did not favour livestock body condition.

Malnutrition rates of children aged 12-59 months 18 16

14 12 10 8 6 Percentage % Percentage 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MUAC long term mean 2004- 13.7 14.9 14.9 14.5 15.4 15.3 14.5 13.9 13.7 14.2 12.9 14.1 2013 % at risk of mulnutrition 2013 13.94 14.22 15.3 13.3 13.89 14.7 16.04

N=1,219

Sentinel site Hara Masalani Galmagalla Ijara Handaro Bodhai Sangailu Abaltiro Average Percentage of children with MUAC<135 mm 0 2.7 7.4 10.1 12.8 19.3 26.4 26.6 16.04

Abaltiro agro-pastoralists’ livelihood zone has the highest percentage of children at risk of malnutrition at 26.6% while Hara had no child aged under below five years with MUAC reading measuring less than 135mm.

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4.2 Human Health.

The top cases reported were Malaria, upper respiratory tract infection, skin infection and bilharzias. However, there was no outbreak of communicable diseases

4.3 FLAGGED AREAS (AFFECTED AREAS)

 Pastoralist livelihoods of Hulugho, Warsame, Boni and Gababa Agro pastoral livelihood were the most affected.

5.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES AND COPPING STRATEGIES.

5.1. Non- food Interventions.

 Drilling of one borehole in Sangailu Division by World Vision.  Extension of Masalani water supply by former ministry for the development of Northern Kenya and other arid lands  Construction of Ege water pan by world vision.

5.2. Food Aid  General food distribution by Kenya Red crosses Society.  Also the GoK relief food was distributed to beneficiaries.  Assorted food aid distribution to vulnerable groups by SIF

5.3. Coping strategies Among the coping measures adopted during the month were: - o Migrations. o Remittances from relatives. o Herding o Milk sales

5.4.0. OTHER GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS BY DSG

5.4.1 Livestock diseases . Revival of Kotiley livestock marketing . Disease surveillance should be sustained by veterinary department and other stake holders in order to contain any disease outbreaks. All stake holders to support vaccination and treatment of livestock . . Tsetse control program should be strengthen

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5.4.2 Human health  Provision of SFP and OTP meals to children under five years, lactating and antenatal mothers  Improve sanitation standard of the both district by constructing pitlatrines and intensifying community led total sanitation  De-worming for school age going children by Ministry of Public Health should continue.  Disease surveillance should be strengthened by the Ministry of Health in order to avert outbreak of diseases.  Bilharzia control measures should be put in place by the medical authorities.  Set up campaigns on safe breastfeeding habits to curb issues of malnutrition.  Mass polio vaccination by ministry of public health

5.4.3 OTHERS

 Train communities on community managed disaster risk reduction so as to prepare community level drought preparedness and drought contingency plans.  Implement forest management plan for the Boni Forest in the district.  Improve range management through expansion/extension of community wildlife conservancies.  Mainstream gender in all ongoing and recommended activities in the two districts.

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