1. Why did the military coup in occur? Myanmar has a long list of Military coup(s) since 1962 when Gen staged the first one and it had transformed the Myanmar military into a brutal regime and an elite class in Myanmar society although most of the population income was just above the poverty line. The military reserves 25% of all ‘Hlut Taw’ or Union Parliament seats which are appointed directly by the Commander in Chief of the armed forces. Additional to this, it has under its control the ministry of Defence, the ministry of Home and Religious Affairs and the ministry of Border Affairs of which the ministers are directly appointed by the Commander in Chief of the armed forces. Additional perks of the military written into the 2008 Constitution are that out of the two Vice Presidents appointed, one is to be directly appointed by the military and that the military expenditures are not to be made transparent or scrutinised by the public. a. In spite of all this plus other beneficial to the military, the military commander in chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing wanted to be the President of the country which the State Counsellor did not agree. b. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s retirement age had been extended for 5 years from age 60 to 65 during the first army-backed USDP political party when it came to power in 2010 (which the Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD party boycotted). When the NLD was elected in 2015 and became the ruling government, the NLD President refused to extend the term another 5 years to the age of 70. In effect, Senior General’s age is now over the legally binding age of 65 and he should have retired officially. c. In the 2010 elections - attended and witnessed by the international media and diplomats, Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD party won a landslide victory securing 83% of the parliamentary seats contested. The military backed USDP party was soundly thrashed winning only a small percentage.

All these facts as mentioned above, led the army to take over power from the elected government at gunpoint declaring untruthfully and blatantly that the last 2020 election was fraudulent. The Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing's obvious plan is to outlaw the NLD party and imprison all the party’s leaders then hold another election without them.

2. How long is likely to last? If there is no action by the western countries, it will last another 5 years minimum possibly to 20 years.

3. What have been the regional reactions to the coup in Myanmar? Neighbouring countries like India and Thailand have chosen to keep quiet as India has substantial and major projects in Myanmar and also because they themselves have some internal strife with the Sikh farmers protesting against the government. Thailand is also under a coup’de`tat by the army but the army is protecting the Thai King and has the blessing of the King who is now a very unpopular figure there. with its many interests in Myanmar including the twin Gas (from offshore Myanmar) and Oil (transported and downloaded from the middle east) pipelines running from the Arakan island of Kyauk Phyu (Ramree island) all the way to Kunming. China, Myanmar’s major trading and investment neighbour although not outright endorsing the coup d'etat, has been vetoing the UNSC resolutions for ‘Further Action’ and disagreeing with the western sanctions but obviously will benefit from a stable government in Myanmar in tune with its investments and interests. ASEAN nations are also likewise but lately have been having urgent sessions for a dialogue and negotiations but the military junta is unlikely to entertain them as they are hell bent on having the country go their own non-negotiable state.

4. What are the implications for Australians in Myanmar? Australians obviously would prefer a western leaning nation in Myanmar instead of a hedged China dominated one which is what it would lead to with the western sanctions in place.

5. What are the implications for Australians doing business in Myanmar? Presently, there are major implications there as the nation is heading towards a “Failed State” with the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) and major oil and gas exploration and production concerns like Woodside Petroleum backing off due to western pressure and sanctions.

6. What is the impact on bilateral cooperation, such as military, human rights and international development support? Right now cooperation on this is non-existent with Mr. Sean Turnell the Australian economics professor and economic adviser to Aung San Suu Kyi being detained and charged in Myanmar. The military junta will prosecute everyone involved with the elected government and the NLD.

7. What can or should Australia do to support the return to stability and democracy? Australia should actively and directly affect contact with the military junta and play a part together with the ASEAN countries for a negotiated settlement to restore democracy in Myanmar. If negotiations with the military junta breaks down, Australian should recognise the interim National Unity Government as set up by the Committee Representing the (CRPH) and join the western world to help restore Parliamentary Democracy in Myanmar where the citizens can live without fear of prosecution by the military.