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CP ALL Target Price: THB72.00 Price: THB61.25 a Decent Growth Market Cap: USD15,590M Bloomberg Ticker: CPALL TB

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CP ALL Target Price: THB72.00 Price: THB61.25 a Decent Growth Market Cap: USD15,590M Bloomberg Ticker: CPALL TB Company Update Thailand 17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Buy (from Sell) CP ALL Target Price: THB72.00 Price: THB61.25 A Decent Growth Market Cap: USD15,590m Bloomberg Ticker: CPALL TB A retailer of staples like CP ALL would benefit from a consumption Share Data recovery, while the opening of its stores is still on target and it continues Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 1,559m/44.7m to expand its cash-and-carry stores abroad. Its balance sheet is also strengthening, which reduces concerns over capital needs. Upgrade to 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 39.0 - 64.0 BUY (from Sell), with a new DCF-derived TP of THB72.00 (from THB40.50, Free Float (%) 60 18% upside). Shares outstanding (m) 8,983 Less sales pressure. We are positive on the improvement in consumption in Estimated Return 18% the upcountry, due to increasing farm prices. This would benefit retailers, including CP ALL. In the short term, the success of 7-Eleven’s stamp Shareholders (%) redemption campaign this year and easing price competition from hypermarket CP Merchandising Co Ltd 32.8 retailers that affected Siam Makro may act as catalysts to 2H16F earnings. Thai NVDR Co Ltd 7.1 Over 2016-2018, we expect resilient SSSG of 3-4% (2015: 0.9%) for its Charoen Pokphand Group Co Ltd 5.8 convenience stores (CVS) and 2-3% (2015: -0.6%) for cash-and-carry stores. A less tight balance sheet. We expect CP ALL’s net D/E ratio to decline to Share Performance (%) 1.9x by 2018 (2015: 4.0x). Its solid operating cash flow of THB34-39bn in 2017- YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m 2018 and larger room for debt refinancing would be able to support the planned Absolute 56.1 4.3 17.8 38.4 23.1 repayments of debentures and loans of THB27.9bn/16.7bn in 2017F/2018F. Relative 41.4 3.0 18.6 31.7 17.9 The interest coverage ratio, which may expand to 4.7x in 2018F (2015: 2.9x), implies greater flexibility and lower financial costs. Source: Bloomberg Outstanding products a growth driver. Its strategy, which focuses on CP ALL (CPALL TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) launching more new merchandise (mainly ready-to-eat foods), adjusting its 66 130 product mix (eg enlarging its personal care section) and creating value-added 61 123 56 115 services to existing stores (eg All Café, bakery and drugstore corners) have 51 108 46 100 attracted clients and differentiated 7-Eleven from other CVS players in Thailand. 41 93 These factors may continue to support SSSG and we conservatively expect it to 18036 85 160 help lift its annualised GPM by 10bps over the three-year period. 140 120 100 Makro goes international. Improved economic prospects for the upcountry 80 60 may help it achieve its aggressive plan to grow its 7-Eleven network by 700 40 20 stores pa. Still, Thailand’s CVS business is still far from being saturated. For Vol m Siam Makro, its first cash-and-carry grocery store in Cambodia is scheduled to Oct-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Aug-16 be opened by end-2017. Early operations abroad may typically incur losses over the next few years but this would be immaterial to CP ALL’s overall Source: Bloomberg earnings. Its growth outlook should be sustained in the longer term. Upgrade to BUY. We expect earnings to increase at a 19% CAGR in 2016- 2018, driven by both 7-Eleven and Siam Makro businesses. The recent share price correction provides an opportunity to enter for long-term investment. We believe CP ALL deserves to trade at a premium above both local and regional peer averages of c.25x, due to its market leadership. Rolling over to FY17F (from FY16), its new DCF-derived TP of THB72.00 (from THB40.50) implies 33x 2017 P/E, or +1.5SD to its 5-year historical P/E. Downside risks are consumption trends staying gloomy and lower-than-expected opening of new stores. This report marks the transfer of coverage to Vatcharut Vacharawongsith. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover (THBm) 357,766 391,817 437,924 492,804 547,846 Reported net profit (THBm) 10,200 13,682 16,689 19,665 23,339 Recurring net profit (THBm) 9,891 13,686 16,634 19,665 23,339 Recurring net profit growth (%) (9.9) 38.4 21.5 18.2 18.7 Recurring EPS (THB) 1.10 1.52 1.85 2.19 2.60 DPS (THB) 0.91 0.81 0.99 1.16 1.38 Recurring P/E (x) 55.6 40.2 33.1 28.0 23.6 P/B (x) 17.1 14.3 11.7 9.7 8.1 P/CF (x) 19.0 17.4 18.2 16.2 14.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 51.8 38.4 34.0 29.3 25.3 Analyst Return on average equity (%) 32.8 38.8 39.0 37.9 37.3 Vatcharut Vacharawongsith Net debt to equity (%) 469.2 398.2 314.0 248.9 193.9 +662 862 9999 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 0.8 (1.2) (0.7) [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform CP ALL Thailand Company Update 17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on : 2016-10-14. Asia Financial summary Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Thailand Recurring EPS (THB) 1.10 1.52 1.85 2.19 2.60 Consumer Cyclical EPS (THB) 1.14 1.52 1.86 2.19 2.60 CP ALL DPS (THB) 0.91 0.81 0.99 1.16 1.38 Bloomberg CPALL TB BVPS (THB) 3.57 4.28 5.24 6.31 7.60 Buy Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F DCF Recurring P/E (x) 55.6 40.2 33.1 28.0 23.6 P/E (x) 53.9 40.2 33.0 28.0 23.6 Key drivers P/B (x) 17.1 14.3 11.7 9.7 8.1 i. Opening of new stores both in Thailand and FCF Yield (%) 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.2 overseas; Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 ii. Launches of new and exclusive products; iii. Sales growth of high-GPM ready-to-eat and EV/EBITDA (x) 51.8 38.4 34.0 29.3 25.3 EV/EBIT (x) 94.9 63.2 55.2 46.6 39.2 private label products Key risks Income statement (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F i. Slowdown in domestic consumption; Total turnover 357,766 391,817 437,924 492,804 547,846 ii. Intense competition in hypermarkets that may Gross profit 76,323 85,299 95,946 108,534 121,005 squeeze the profit margins of cash-and-carry EBITDA 13,883 18,755 20,962 23,987 27,388 retail stores; iii. Increasing leverage Depreciation and amortisation (6,310) (7,357) (8,052) (8,895) (9,712) Operating profit 7,573 11,397 12,910 15,092 17,675 Company Profile Net interest (8,518) (8,586) (8,434) (8,398) (7,868) CP ALL is the sole operator of 7-Eleven stores in Exceptional income - net 377 (4) 66 0 0 Thailand, with a 53% market share. The company has Pre-tax profit 12,589 16,884 20,537 24,200 28,720 more than 8,500 stores across the country and plans Taxation (2,270) (3,066) (3,697) (4,356) (5,170) to expand to 10,000 stores by 2017. In 2013, the Minority interests (119) (135) (152) (179) (212) group acquired the country’s biggest cash-and-carry Recurring net profit 9,891 13,686 16,634 19,665 23,339 retailer, Siam Makro. Cash flow (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Change in working capital 3,752 2,230 5,464 5,471 5,860 Cash flow from operations 28,902 31,673 30,204 34,031 38,911 Capex (14,696) (15,983) (13,254) (14,614) (15,916) Cash flow from investing activities (18,222) (17,954) (16,084) (17,585) (19,036) Dividends paid (8,151) (7,270) (8,085) (10,013) (11,799) Cash flow from financing activities (3,109) (24,405) (18,688) (17,685) (16,054) Cash at beginning of period 24,632 32,204 21,518 16,951 15,711 Net change in cash 7,572 (10,686) (4,567) (1,240) 3,821 Ending balance cash 32,204 21,518 16,951 15,711 19,532 Balance sheet (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total cash and equivalents 33,436 22,921 18,353 17,114 20,935 Tangible fixed assets 80,201 89,447 94,650 100,369 106,573 Intangible assets 126,073 126,073 126,073 126,073 126,073 Total other assets 55,452 56,590 59,419 62,390 65,510 Total assets 326,410 329,083 334,541 345,090 361,722 Short-term debt 19,640 23,723 38,997 45,807 59,604 Total long-term debt 178,301 165,159 137,222 120,475 99,931 Other liabilities 21,036 21,117 23,177 25,442 27,933 Total liabilities 291,352 287,407 284,261 285,159 290,251 Shareholders' equity 32,100 38,462 47,065 56,717 68,257 Minority interests 4,276 4,326 4,326 4,326 4,326 Total equity 35,058 41,676 50,280 59,931 71,471 Net debt 164,505 165,961 157,866 149,168 138,600 Total liabilities & equity 326,410 329,083 334,541 345,090 361,722 Key metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Revenue growth (%) 31.4 9.5 11.8 12.5 11.2 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (9.9) 38.4 21.5 18.2 18.7 Gross margin (%) 21.3 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 Net profit margin (%) 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 Dividend payout ratio (%) 79.9 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 Capex/sales (%) 4.1 4.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 Interest cover (x) 0.89 1.33 1.53 1.80 2.25 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 CP ALL Thailand Company Update 17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Valuation And Recommendation Upgrade to BUY We upgrade our recommendation to BUY from Sell.
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