CP ALL Target Price: THB72.00 Price: THB61.25 a Decent Growth Market Cap: USD15,590M Bloomberg Ticker: CPALL TB

Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail Buy (from Sell) CP ALL Target Price: THB72.00 Price: THB61.25 A Decent Growth Market Cap: USD15,590m Bloomberg Ticker: CPALL TB

A retailer of staples like CP ALL would benefit from a consumption Share Data recovery, while the opening of its stores is still on target and it continues Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 1,559m/44.7m to expand its cash-and-carry stores abroad. Its balance sheet is also strengthening, which reduces concerns over capital needs. Upgrade to 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 39.0 - 64.0 BUY (from Sell), with a new DCF-derived TP of THB72.00 (from THB40.50, Free Float (%) 60 18% upside). Shares outstanding (m) 8,983 Less sales pressure. We are positive on the improvement in consumption in Estimated Return 18% the upcountry, due to increasing farm prices. This would benefit retailers, including CP ALL. In the short term, the success of 7-Eleven’s stamp Shareholders (%) redemption campaign this year and easing price competition from hypermarket CP Merchandising Co Ltd 32.8 retailers that affected Siam Makro may act as catalysts to 2H16F earnings. Thai NVDR Co Ltd 7.1 Over 2016-2018, we expect resilient SSSG of 3-4% (2015: 0.9%) for its Charoen Pokphand Group Co Ltd 5.8 convenience stores (CVS) and 2-3% (2015: -0.6%) for cash-and-carry stores.

A less tight balance sheet. We expect CP ALL’s net D/E ratio to decline to Share Performance (%) 1.9x by 2018 (2015: 4.0x). Its solid operating cash flow of THB34-39bn in 2017- YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m 2018 and larger room for debt refinancing would be able to support the planned Absolute 56.1 4.3 17.8 38.4 23.1 repayments of debentures and loans of THB27.9bn/16.7bn in 2017F/2018F. Relative 41.4 3.0 18.6 31.7 17.9 The interest coverage ratio, which may expand to 4.7x in 2018F (2015: 2.9x), implies greater flexibility and lower financial costs. Source: Bloomberg

Outstanding products a growth driver. Its strategy, which focuses on CP ALL (CPALL TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) launching more new merchandise (mainly ready-to-eat foods), adjusting its 66 130 product mix (eg enlarging its personal care section) and creating value-added 61 123 56 115 services to existing stores (eg All Café, bakery and drugstore corners) have 51 108 46 100 attracted clients and differentiated 7-Eleven from other CVS players in Thailand. 41 93 These factors may continue to support SSSG and we conservatively expect it to 18036 85 160 help lift its annualised GPM by 10bps over the three-year period. 140 120 100 Makro goes international. Improved economic prospects for the upcountry 80 60 may help it achieve its aggressive plan to grow its 7-Eleven network by 700 40 20 stores pa. Still, Thailand’s CVS business is still far from being saturated. For Vol m Siam Makro, its first cash-and-carry grocery store in Cambodia is scheduled to Oct-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Aug-16 be opened by end-2017. Early operations abroad may typically incur losses over the next few years but this would be immaterial to CP ALL’s overall Source: Bloomberg earnings. Its growth outlook should be sustained in the longer term. Upgrade to BUY. We expect earnings to increase at a 19% CAGR in 2016- 2018, driven by both 7-Eleven and Siam Makro businesses. The recent share price correction provides an opportunity to enter for long-term investment. We believe CP ALL deserves to trade at a premium above both local and regional peer averages of c.25x, due to its market leadership. Rolling over to FY17F (from FY16), its new DCF-derived TP of THB72.00 (from THB40.50) implies 33x 2017 P/E, or +1.5SD to its 5-year historical P/E. Downside risks are consumption trends staying gloomy and lower-than-expected opening of new stores. This report marks the transfer of coverage to Vatcharut Vacharawongsith.

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover (THBm) 357,766 391,817 437,924 492,804 547,846 Reported net profit (THBm) 10,200 13,682 16,689 19,665 23,339 Recurring net profit (THBm) 9,891 13,686 16,634 19,665 23,339 Recurring net profit growth (%) (9.9) 38.4 21.5 18.2 18.7 Recurring EPS (THB) 1.10 1.52 1.85 2.19 2.60 DPS (THB) 0.91 0.81 0.99 1.16 1.38 Recurring P/E (x) 55.6 40.2 33.1 28.0 23.6 P/B (x) 17.1 14.3 11.7 9.7 8.1 P/CF (x) 19.0 17.4 18.2 16.2 14.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 51.8 38.4 34.0 29.3 25.3 Analyst Return on average equity (%) 32.8 38.8 39.0 37.9 37.3 Vatcharut Vacharawongsith Net debt to equity (%) 469.2 398.2 314.0 248.9 193.9 +662 862 9999 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 0.8 (1.2) (0.7) [email protected]

Source: Company data, RHB

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Financial Exhibits

Financial model updated on : 2016-10-14. Asia Financial summary Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Thailand Recurring EPS (THB) 1.10 1.52 1.85 2.19 2.60 Consumer Cyclical EPS (THB) 1.14 1.52 1.86 2.19 2.60 CP ALL DPS (THB) 0.91 0.81 0.99 1.16 1.38 Bloomberg CPALL TB BVPS (THB) 3.57 4.28 5.24 6.31 7.60 Buy Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983

Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F DCF Recurring P/E (x) 55.6 40.2 33.1 28.0 23.6 P/E (x) 53.9 40.2 33.0 28.0 23.6 Key drivers P/B (x) 17.1 14.3 11.7 9.7 8.1 i. Opening of new stores both in Thailand and FCF Yield (%) 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.2 overseas; Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 ii. Launches of new and exclusive products; iii. Sales growth of high-GPM ready-to-eat and EV/EBITDA (x) 51.8 38.4 34.0 29.3 25.3 EV/EBIT (x) 94.9 63.2 55.2 46.6 39.2 private label products

Key risks Income statement (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F i. Slowdown in domestic consumption; Total turnover 357,766 391,817 437,924 492,804 547,846 ii. Intense competition in hypermarkets that may Gross profit 76,323 85,299 95,946 108,534 121,005 squeeze the profit margins of cash-and-carry EBITDA 13,883 18,755 20,962 23,987 27,388 retail stores; iii. Increasing leverage Depreciation and amortisation (6,310) (7,357) (8,052) (8,895) (9,712) Operating profit 7,573 11,397 12,910 15,092 17,675 Company Profile Net interest (8,518) (8,586) (8,434) (8,398) (7,868) CP ALL is the sole operator of 7-Eleven stores in Exceptional income - net 377 (4) 66 0 0 Thailand, with a 53% market share. The company has Pre-tax profit 12,589 16,884 20,537 24,200 28,720 more than 8,500 stores across the country and plans Taxation (2,270) (3,066) (3,697) (4,356) (5,170) to expand to 10,000 stores by 2017. In 2013, the Minority interests (119) (135) (152) (179) (212) group acquired the country’s biggest cash-and-carry Recurring net profit 9,891 13,686 16,634 19,665 23,339 retailer, Siam Makro.

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F

Change in working capital 3,752 2,230 5,464 5,471 5,860 Cash flow from operations 28,902 31,673 30,204 34,031 38,911 Capex (14,696) (15,983) (13,254) (14,614) (15,916) Cash flow from investing activities (18,222) (17,954) (16,084) (17,585) (19,036) Dividends paid (8,151) (7,270) (8,085) (10,013) (11,799) Cash flow from financing activities (3,109) (24,405) (18,688) (17,685) (16,054) Cash at beginning of period 24,632 32,204 21,518 16,951 15,711 Net change in cash 7,572 (10,686) (4,567) (1,240) 3,821 Ending balance cash 32,204 21,518 16,951 15,711 19,532

Balance sheet (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total cash and equivalents 33,436 22,921 18,353 17,114 20,935 Tangible fixed assets 80,201 89,447 94,650 100,369 106,573 Intangible assets 126,073 126,073 126,073 126,073 126,073 Total other assets 55,452 56,590 59,419 62,390 65,510 Total assets 326,410 329,083 334,541 345,090 361,722 Short-term debt 19,640 23,723 38,997 45,807 59,604 Total long-term debt 178,301 165,159 137,222 120,475 99,931 Other liabilities 21,036 21,117 23,177 25,442 27,933 Total liabilities 291,352 287,407 284,261 285,159 290,251 Shareholders' equity 32,100 38,462 47,065 56,717 68,257 Minority interests 4,276 4,326 4,326 4,326 4,326 Total equity 35,058 41,676 50,280 59,931 71,471 Net debt 164,505 165,961 157,866 149,168 138,600 Total liabilities & equity 326,410 329,083 334,541 345,090 361,722

Key metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Revenue growth (%) 31.4 9.5 11.8 12.5 11.2 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (9.9) 38.4 21.5 18.2 18.7 Gross margin (%) 21.3 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 Net profit margin (%) 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 Dividend payout ratio (%) 79.9 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 Capex/sales (%) 4.1 4.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 Interest cover (x) 0.89 1.33 1.53 1.80 2.25

Source: Company data, RHB

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Valuation And Recommendation Upgrade to BUY We upgrade our recommendation to BUY from Sell. As CP ALL is the biggest listed Thai retailer, its earnings growth outlook over the next three years is still robust. The stage where there were concerns over its balance sheet strength and pressures on expenses related to the acquisition of Siam Makro (MAKRO TB, NR) in 2013 should be already a thing of the past. It should shift its focus in ongoing investments to the development of business operations. Its recent share price correction provides an opportunity to enter for long-term investment purposes. We believe CP ALL deserves to trade at a premium, above its local and regional peer averages of c.25x, due to its market leadership. Rolling over to FY17F (from FY16), its new DCF-derived TP of THB72.00 implies 33x 2017 P/E, or +1.5SD to its 5-year historical P/E.

Risks to earnings forecasts Key risks to our forecasts include: i. A slower-than-expected consumption recovery; ii. Delayed opening of new stores; iii. Success of its overseas expansion and improvement of its product mix; iv. Intense competition in the retail industry; v. Uncertainties like political conflicts, natural disasters, etc.

Figure 1: CP ALL’s DCF valuation THBm 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F EBIT (1-t) 26,078 29,270 33,129 38,630 44,194 50,384 57,220 64,747 72,928 81,871 Depreciation & Amortization 8,895 9,712 10,668 11,683 12,813 14,043 15,397 16,879 18,506 20,288 Net working capital 5,471 (149) (197) (90) 10 114 80 51 39 34 Capex (17,585) (19,036) (20,785) (22,606) (24,645) (26,845) (29,265) (31,902) (34,790) (37,944) Net free cash flow to firm 11,917 20,096 23,208 27,797 32,352 37,468 43,272 49,673 56,605 64,181

Terminal value 1,299,958 PV 10,999 17,118 18,246 20,169 21,666 23,158 24,684 26,152 27,505 611,779 Terminal growth 3.0% WACC 8.3% Total discounted firm value 801,477 Less: Net debt 150,571 Less: Minority interest 4,326 Equity value 646,580 Number of shares (m) 8,983 Equity value per share (THB) 72.00

Source: RHB

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Figure 2: Peer comparison Thailand retailers Ticker Mkt. Cap. EPS growth (%) Net P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE ( %) (USDm) 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F BERLI JUCKER BJC TB 5,356 -44.0 84.2 45.8 24.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 2.0 5.4 5.7 CENTRAL PATTANA CPN TB 7,206 14.2 14.9 26.6 23.1 4.5 4.0 1.5 1.7 18.1 18.5 CP ALL CPALL TB 15,631 22.0 17.8 33.2 28.2 11.0 9.3 1.8 2.1 36.3 35.7 SIAM GLOBAL HOUSE GLOBAL TB 1,501 62.8 16.5 33.5 28.8 3.0 2.8 0.7 1.1 9.3 10.2 HOME PRODUCT CENTER HMPRO TB 3,702 13.2 12.2 31.6 28.1 7.2 7.0 3.0 3.4 23.1 25.2 ROBINSON DEP'T STORE ROBINS TB 1,760 22.2 13.6 21.5 18.9 3.7 3.3 2.3 2.6 17.6 18.3 Average 4.9 22.7 32.0 25.3 5.1 4.6 1.7 2.2 18.3 18.9

Regional convenience stores Ticker Mkt. Cap. EPS growth (%) Net P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE ( %) (USDm) 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F FAMILYMART UNY HOLDINGS CO 8028 JP 7,813 -12.2 -11.2 27.5 31.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 8.4 3.7 LAWSON INC 2651 JP 7,540 1.4 -2.0 21.1 21.5 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.2 14.2 13.4 SEVEN & I HOLDINGS CO LTD 3382 JP 38,159 1.1 -28.4 21.1 29.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 8.2 5.3 DAIRY FARM INTL HLDGS LTD D01 SP 9,857 0.9 10.3 21.9 19.9 6.2 5.5 3.0 3.3 30.1 28.9 PRESIDENT CHAIN STORE CORP 2912 TT 8,075 12.4 7.8 27.0 25.0 8.6 8.1 3.0 3.2 32.8 32.7 Average 0.7 -4.7 23.7 25.4 4.3 3.9 2.5 2.7 18.7 16.8 Note: Price data as of 13 Oct 2016 Note: Valuations in red are from RHB. Consensus valuations are in black Source: Bloomberg, RHB

Figure 3: CP ALL’s P/E and SD levels Figure 4: CP ALL’s P/E band 40 CP All Price (THB) P/E(x) 90 +2 SD: 34.9x 40 35 80 +1 SD: 31.6x 35

30 Mean: 28.2x 70 30

-1 SD: 24.9x 60 25 25 50 -2 SD: 21.6x 20 20 40 15 30 15 10 20

10 10

0 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16FDec-17F Source: Bloomberg, RHB Source: RHB

Earnings growth to average 19% over next three years In 2016-2018, we estimate average total sales growth of 12%, SSSG of 3-4% for its convenience store business, 2-3% SSSG for its cash-and-carry store business, and overall GPM expansion of 10bps a year. These are based on: i. An anticipated recovery for consumption in Thailand, stemming from the upward trend of farm product prices and continuous launches of government stimulus packages which should strengthen the upcountry’s economy (which would primarily improve spending and benefit the retailers of staple goods; ii. The company’s sales of high-margin merchandise. These include 7-Eleven’s ready- to-eat foods and exclusive products, as well as Makro’s hotel, restaurant and catering (HoReCa)-related products. iii. The opening of new stores. Also, interest expenses that are decreasing (after hitting a peak in 2015) implies that its interest-bearing liabilities are declining – which eases pressure on its balance sheet. This may result in a net profit CAGR of 19% over 2016F-2018F and its net margin rising to 4.3% by 2018 from 3.5% in 2015, and a sustainable ROE of 36% in the corresponding period. For 2H16, we expect the outlook for its sales and GPM for both of its retail businesses to be robust. 7-Eleven’s stamp redemption campaign using Sanrio characters and LINE Friends during July and November this year may be well-accepted by customers, while Siam Makro may see an easing competition environment as hypermarket retailers relax their price war, especially on fresh food products.

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

The current mourning period throughout Thailand may cause limited impact to retailers of staple goods vs that of discretionary products. This is because local spending on New Year gifts during the festive season may slow down, but the consumption of necessities will be normal. We initially forecasted a 3Q16 net profit of THB4.3bn (+32% YoY, +2% QoQ).

Figure 5: CP ALL’s sales revenue profile Figure 6: Annualised SSSG 7-Eleven Makro 7-Eleven Makro Sector

547,846 13.0

492,804

437,924 9.0 39% 8.4 391,817 7.8 357,766 38% 8.5 38% 7.7 5.7 272,286 39% 4.3 39% 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.0 22% 4.8 3.0 2.5 188,702 2.7 0.9 155,360 61% 62% 2.1 2.0 2.0 61% 62% -1.1 -0.6 78% 61% 100% 100% -1.1 -2.6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 7: Quarterly SSSG Figure 8: CP ALL’s sales growth and profit margin trend Gross profit margin (%) EBIT margin (%) 7-Eleven Makro Sector 11.8 EBITDA margin (%) Sales growth (%) - RHS 30 50 8.6 25.8 8.2 24.8 45 7.5 7.5 7.1 25 22.6 6.3 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 40 5.6 7.6 6.0 21.3 4.6 35 6.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 4.0 20 2.8 2.6 5.0 3.0 3.0 30 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 15 25 0.5 2.6 2.8 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.7 20 -1.1 -1.2 9.1 9.2 -2.0 0.3 10 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 7.3 7.7 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -2.6 15 -1.1 -3.7 10 -4.5 5 7.1 7.4 6.5 -3.6 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.7 5.5 5 0 0 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q14 4Q14 3Q16F 4Q16F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 9: CP ALL’s net profit and ROE Figure 10: CP ALL’s leverage and cash flow indicators (THBm) Net profit Net profit margin - RHS ROE - RHS (%) Interest-bearing debt Operating cash flow (THBbn) (x) Capex Net D/E ratio - RHS 4.71 25,000 50 250 5.00 45.4 23,339 4.84 4.00 45 40.4 4.00 19,665 198 3.15 20,000 36.3 40 200 35.0 35.7 35.5 185 184 189 2.50 3.00 176 35 1.95 30.0 35.7 2.00 16,689 15,000 13,682 30 150 166 160 1.00 25 11,049 10,503 10,200 0.00 10,000 20 100 8,008 15 -1.00 (1.1) (1.3) -2.00 5,000 10 50 5.9 34 39 5.2 4.3 28 29 32 30 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.0 24 5 14 15 16 13 15 16 -3.00 6 0 4 0 0 0 0 -4.00 2016F 2017F 2018F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Less concern over balance sheet The strong net profit growth could enlarge CP ALL’s equity base and this may lower its net D/E ratio to 1.9x in the next three years (2015: 4.0x). Its annualised operating cash flow of THB34bn-39bn may cover the planned repayments of debentures and loans of THB27.9bn in 2017F and THB16.7bn in 2018F. The remaining operating cash flow, greater room for debt financing, and a possible sale of Siam Makro shares would also support the company’s capex of THB13.5-15.9bn over 2016F-2018F. We believe there should be no additional capital needs for CP ALL regarding its current financial circumstances.

Still ample room for growth in the upcountry The proportion of urban and provincial 7-Eleven stores is 44:56. Yet, CP ALL continues to have aggressive plans to open 700 new stores each year, of which more than two-thirds will be located in Thailand’s provincial areas. Construction of infrastructure like new roads and a mass transit system that spans across Bangkok and areas in its vicinity have created new locations for convenience stores to operate. Meanwhile, there are opportunities to open and operate new stores in numerous remote areas in the upcountry. We are still positive on the outlook of its convenience store network expansion. This is because the long-term outlook for the convenience store segment could be supported by: i. Changes in consumer attitudes towards modern trade. Note that Thailand’s urbanisation rate was still as low as 24% in 2015; ii. Low-density population per convenience store in rural areas, compared with the capital and in Thailand vs convenience stores in other developed countries; iii. Moderate penetration rate among modern retailers of 45% throughout the kingdom vs the mature stage in Japan, UK and the US where the modern grocery penetration rate stays at levels of 75-85%. We believe CP ALL’s 7-Eleven will continue being the biggest convenience store chain in the country as its current store number of 9,252 in 2Q16 is much higher than that of its closest competitor, Tesco Lotus Express, which has around 1,500 stores. We think that the company will hit its targeted store number of 10,000 by 2017F, as it has set up its next milestone of having 12,000 stores by 2020F.

Figure 11: Population per convenience store by country Figure 12: Thai population per 7-Eleven convenience store Average population per store Total number of CVS - RHS Population / Store Provincial Bangkok and Suburban Average

5,000 4,686 180,000 12,000 11,206 4,500 154,195 160,000 10,000 4,000 140,000 3,500 120,000 8,000 7,442 3,000 100,000 2,500 80,000 6,000 2,000 57,400 50,095 60,000 1,500 4,000 2,730 1,000 14,027 40,000 500 20,000 2,000 1,292 2,087 2,205 0 0 UK USA Japan Thailand 0

Source: Various sources, RHB Source: Department of Provincial Administration, Company data, RHB

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Figure 13: Share of Thailand’s convenience stores by player Figure 14: Number of 7-Eleven convenience stores Stores Provincial Bangkok and Suburban Jiffy Others 12,000 Mini BIGC 1% 5% 10,932 3% 10,232 9,532 Tesco Lotus 10,000 Express 10% 8,000 CP Fresh Mart 4% 4,910 6,000 4,479 4,034 108 Shop 3,645 3,299 5% 7-Eleven 3,004 4,000 2,667 63% 2,345 Family Mart 9% 2,000 3,922 3,177 3,395 3,648 2,433 2,603 2,786 2,977

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Source: Companies data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 15: Number of Siam Makro’s stores Figure 16: 7-Eleven sales contribution by product type

140 Accumulated New stores 129 119 120 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 109

100 93

77 80 64 Non-food 57 52 60 48 41 41 44 Food 40 29 29 29 73% 73% 73% 72% 72% 23 20 21 17 19 14 15 16 20 10 6 9 1 4 0 2011 1989 1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB Figure 17: Siam Makro’s sales contribution by product type Figure 18: Siam Makro’s sales contribution by customer type

13% 12% 11% 14% 13% 18% 19% 20% 23% 26%

13% 10% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% Households / Others 10% 9% 8% Distributors 61% 63% 60% 66% Non-food 67% 19% 21% 22% Service Dry food 23% 24% HoReCa Fresh food 4% 4% 3% 3% Non-food retailers 3% Food retailers

36% 38% 37% 34% 31% 26% 26% 29% 19% 21%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Figure 19: 7-Eleven’s stamp redemption campaign in 2016 Figure 20: All Café and ready-to-eat food corner

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Focusing on right products is a key to success Apart from the recovery of domestic consumption from a low base, another key earnings driver is the continued improvement in product mix focusing on high-margin merchandise. This would attract consumers and help improve CP ALL’s topline sales and profit margins. For 7-Eleven, launches of ready-to-eat products (23% of total sales) have become successful. This has caused the chain to stand out in comparison to other players in Thailand. Going forward, it may pay more attention to health, beauty, and wellness products as it anticipates the number of middle-income earners to increase (as well as the aging population – in line with the aging society trend). This segment has become more important as it helped to boost non-food sales to 28.1% in the past year (2014: 27.7%) and non-food GPM by 60bps to 25.6%. CP ALL also aims to grow its coffee retail business by doubling the number of freshly- brewed All Café coffee kiosks over the next five years, from 2,000 at end-2015, which could add value to its existing 7-Eleven stores. For Makro cash-and-carry stores, its strategy to focus on fresh food merchandise which offer strong margins may see improved sales from HoReCa customers (24% of total sales) and households (26% of total sales). We believe Thailand’s rising tourism income may provide strong support for the HoReCa segment. This, in turn, could facilitate Makro to diversify and expand its smaller formats stores selling HoReCa-related products (500- 3,000 sqm), apart from traditional cash-and-carry stores (5,000-7,000 sqm). We still expect Siam Makro to open 10 new outlets each year over 2017-2018 (2016F: 16 stores). Backing by its parent company, Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group which is Thailand’s largest agribusiness conglomerate, could be another strongpoint that delivers synergy to CP ALL’s food business. We also reiterate that as it is the leader in both retail segments (CVS and cash-and-carry), its sizeable businesses would enhance its economies of scale for its operations and give it an edge in negotiating for terms in purchasing supplies.

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

17 October 2016 Consumer Cyclical | Retail

SWOT Analysis

• Dominant market share in the convenience store • New entrants format in Thailand into the convenience • Has a strong product range, being part of the store format, Chaoroen Pokphand Group, which has an extensive including Mini food business Big C • Excellent distribution network across Thailand • Slowdown in consumption spending • Further • Potential penetration of cannibalisation the of own stores convenience following store format in aggressive provincial areas expansion in Thailand • Increasing range of ready- to-eat products in its 7-Eleven stores

• Cash-and-carry business has the opportunity • Highly-geared balance sheet to capture • Dependent on a single market market share • from traditional Personnel expenses form a large portion of costs retailers

Recommendation Chart

Date Recommendation Target Price Price Price Close 2016-03-02 Sell 40.5 46.3 68 Recommendations & Target Price

2015-11-17 Sell 40.0 49.8 na 68.0 48.0 63 27.5 29.5 31.5 36.6 48.5 34.0 48.0 40.0 38.0 40.0 40.5 2015-11-13 Sell 38.0 49.5 58

27.5 31.5 2015-08-26 Sell 38.0 47.0 53 2015-06-02 Sell 40.0 44.8 48 2014-06-17 Trading Buy 48.0 47.5 43 2014-02-26 Neutral 34.0 38.0 38 2013-08-08 Buy 48.0 36.0 33 2013-05-10 Buy 68.0 41.0 28 2013-04-24 Buy 68.0 39.0 23 18 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: RHB, Bloomberg Oct-11 Jan-13 May-14 Aug-15

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

Consumer Cyclical | Retail

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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CP ALL Thailand Company Update

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Consumer Cyclical | Retail

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OWNERSHIP AND MATERIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Malaysia RHB does not have qualified shareholding (1% or more) in the subject company (ies) covered in this report except for: a) -

RHB and/or its subsidiaries are not liquidity providers or market makers for the subject company (ies) covered in this report except for: a) -

RHB and/or its subsidiaries have not participated as a syndicate member in share offerings and/or bond issues in securities covered in this report in the last 12 months except for: a) -

RHB has not provided investment banking services to the company/companies covered in this report in the last 12 months except for: a) -

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Consumer Cyclical | Retail

Thailand RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL and/or its directors, officers, associates, connected parties and/or employees, may have, or have had, interests and/or commitments in the securities in subject company(ies) mentioned in this report or any securities related thereto. Further, RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL may have, or have had, business relationships with the subject company(ies) mentioned in this report. As a result, investors should exercise their own judgment carefully before making any investment decisions.

Indonesia PT RHB Securities Indonesia is not affiliated with the subject company(ies) covered in this report both directly or indirectly as per the definitions of affiliation above.

Pursuant to the Capital Market Law (Law Number 8 Year 1995) and the supporting regulations thereof, what constitutes as affiliated parties are as follows:

1. Familial relationship due to marriage or blood up to the second degree, both horizontally or vertically;

2. Affiliation between parties to the employees, Directors or Commissioners of the parties concerned;

3. Affiliation between 2 companies whereby one or more member of the Board of Directors or the Commissioners are the same;

4. Affiliation between the Company and the parties, both directly or indirectly, controlling or being controlled by the Company;

5. Affiliation between 2 companies which are controlled, directly or indirectly, by the same party; or

6. Affiliation between the Company and the main Shareholders.

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Insider means: a. a commissioner, director or employee of an Issuer or Public Company; b. a substantial shareholder of an Issuer or Public Company; c. an individual, who because of his position or profession, or because of a business relationship with an Issuer or Public Company, has access to inside information; and d. an individual who within the last six months was a Person defined in letters a, b or c, above.

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The staff of RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not serve on any board or trustee positions of any issuer whose securities are covered in this report, except for: (a) -

RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd and/or its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer of the securities covered in this report or any other relationship (including a shareholding of 1% or more in the securities covered in this report) that may create a potential conflict of interest, except for: (a) -

Hong Kong RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have financial interests in in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant (as the case may be) the securities in respect of which are reviewed in the report, and such interests aggregate to an amount equal to or more than (a) 1% of the subject company’s market capitalization (in the case of an issuer as defined under paragraph 16 of the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (the “Code of Conduct”); and/or (b) an amount equal to or more than 1% of the subject company’s issued share capital, or issued units, as applicable (in the case of a new listing applicant as defined in the Code of Conduct). Further, the analysts named in this report or their associates may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant (as the case may be) in the securities which are reviewed in the report.

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Consumer Cyclical | Retail

RHBSHK or any of its group companies may make a market in the securities covered by this report. RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have analysts or their associates, individual(s) employed by or associated with RHBSHK or any of its group companies serving as an officer of the company or any of the companies covered by this report. RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have received compensation or a mandate for investment banking services to the company or any of the companies covered by this report within the past 12 months.

Note: The reference to “group companies” above refers to a group company of RHBSHK that carries on a business in Hong Kong in (a) investment banking; (b) proprietary trading or market making; or (c) agency broking, in relation to securities listed or traded on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.

Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore

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Jakarta Shanghai Bangkok

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2015

Excellent ADVANC CPN GRAMMY KBANK MCOT PS RATCH SCB THCOM WACOAL BAFS DRT HANA KCE MINT PSL ROBINS SCC TISCO BCP DTAC HMPRO KKP MONO PTT SAMART SE-ED TKT BIGC DTC INTUCH KTB NKI PTTEP SAMTEL SIM TMB BTS EASTW IRPC LHBANK PHOL PTTGC SAT SNC TOP CK EGCO IVL LPN PPS QTC SC SPALI VGI

Very Good AAV BBL COL HEMRAJ MC PG SCG SST THIP TPC TWS ACAP BDMS CPF HOTPOT MEGA PJW SEAFCO STA THRE TPCORP UAC AGE BECL CPI HYDRO MFEC PM SFP STEC THREL TRC UT AHC BKI CSL ICC NBC PPP SIAM SVI TICON TRU UV AKP BLA DCC ICHI NCH PR SINGER SWC TIP TRUE VNT AMATA BMCL DELTA INET NINE PRANDA SIS SYMC TIPCO TSC WAVE ANAN BOL DEMCO IRC NSI PREB SITHAI SYNTEC TK TSTE WINNER AOT BROOK ECF KSL NTV PT SMK TASCO TKS TSTH YUASA APCS BWG EE KTC OCC PTG SMPC TBSP TMI TTA ZMICO ARIP CENTEL ERW LANNA OGC Q-CON SMT TCAP TMILL TTCL ASIMAR CFRESH GBX LH OISHI QH SNP TF TMT TTW ASK CHO GC LOXLEY OTO RS SPI TGCI TNDT TU ASP CIMBT GFPT LRH PAP S&J SSF THAI TNITY TVD BANPU CM GLOBAL MACO PDI SABINA SSI THANA TNL TVO BAY CNT GUNKUL MBK PE SAMCO SSSC THANI TOG TWFP* * On Oct 1,2015 TWFP TWFP merged with TWS resulting in a new company, TWPC

Good 2S AS CBG DNA GCAP ITD LHK MK PATO PTL SEAOIL STPI AEC ASIA CGD EARTH GENCO JSP LIT MODERN PB PYLON SIRI SUC AEONTS AUCT CHG EASON GL JTS LIVE MOONG PCA QLT SKR SUSCO AF AYUD CHOW ECL GLAND JUBILE LST MPG PCSGH RCL SMG SUTHA AH BA CI EFORL GLOW KASET M MSC PDG RICHY SOLAR SYNTEC AIRA BEAUTY CITY ESSO GOLD KBS MAJOR MTI PF RML SORKON TAE AIT BEC CKP FE GYT KCAR MAKRO MTLS PICO RPC SPA TAKUNI AJ BFIT CNS FIRE HTC KGI MATCH NC PL S SPC TCC AKR BH CPALL FOCUS HTECH KKC MATI NOK PLANB SALEE SPCG TCCC AMANAH BIG CPL FORTH IEC KTIS MBKET NUSA PLAT SAPPE SPPT TCJ AMARIN BJC CSC FPI IFEC KWC M-CHAI NWR PPM SAWAD SPVI TEAM AP BJCHI CSP FSMART IFS KYE MFC NYT PRG SCCC SRICHA TFD APCO BKD CSS FSS IHL L&E MILL OCEAN PRIN SCN SSC TFI AQUA BTNC CTW FVC IRCP LALIN MJD PACE PSTC SCP STANLY TIC TIW TPIPL UPF VPO TLUXE TRT UPOIC WHA TMC TSE UREKA WIN TMD TSR UWC XO TOPP UMI VIBHA TPCH UP VIH

IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเปิดเผลผลการสํารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการกํากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี ้เป็ นการ ดําเนินการตามนโยบายของสํานักงานคณะกรรมการกํากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการสํารวจของ IOD เป็นการสํารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผู้ลงทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลสํารวจ ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนําเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน อนึ่ง ผลการสํารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการสํารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกํากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการสํารวจจึงอาจ เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทั้งนี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอชบี จํากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสํารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด

ขอมูล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบริษัทจดทะเบียน

ระดับ 1 ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJC BLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSP CTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLAND GRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LST MAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTL PICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKO SAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPG SPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT TH TKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTM TWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTE WG

ระดับ 2 2S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKD BLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBAL HEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX M MALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PB PCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S & J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKON SUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUE TSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดับ 3A ABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE AS ASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTI CM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EA ECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFEC INOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKRO MC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSI NTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PS QLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGER SITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMC SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TMILL TMT TNL TPCORP TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHA ZMICO

ระดับ 3B AAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUI CGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&D FANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRPC IT JCT KCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPK NUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTL Q-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIM SLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSP TCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCH TPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPO WAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดับ 4 ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTC EASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNC SNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดับ 5 BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP

ไมเปดเผยหรือไมมีนโยบาย A ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO

CPR CRANE EIC FER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC

MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYT PAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSF TVT WORK

หมายเหตุ ระดับ 1: มีนโยบาย ระดับ 2: ประกาศเจตนารมณ ระดับ 3: มีมาตรการปองกัน ซึ่งทั้ง 2 กรณี ถือเปนผลการประเมินในระดับเดียวกัน 3A: บริษัทมีการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรือภาค 3B: บริษัทมีคํามั่นและนโยบายของบริษัท แตมิไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรือภาค ระดับ 4: ไดรับการรับรอง ระดับ 5: ขยายผลสูผูที่เกี่ยวของ