Nigeria’s 2019 Elections: Six States to Watch Africa Report N°268 | 21 December 2018 Headquarters International Crisis Group Avenue Louise 149 • 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 • Fax: +32 2 502 50 38
[email protected] Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Rivers: Reigniting an Old Rivalry ..................................................................................... 4 III. Akwa Ibom: Dimming Prospects for Peaceful Polls ......................................................... 8 IV. Kaduna: New Tensions Aggravate Old Grievances .......................................................... 10 V. Kano: Struggle for Strategic Battleground ....................................................................... 12 VI. Plateau: Continuing Ethno-religious Tensions ................................................................ 13 VII. Adamawa: Between President and Challenger ................................................................ 14 VIII. Mitigating Risks in Conflict-prone States ........................................................................ 16 APPENDICES A. Six States to Watch ........................................................................................................... 19 B. About the International Crisis