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Open Dlaflowerthesisfinal.Pdf The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School Intercollege Graduate Degree Program in Ecology PROJECTING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT IN FORESTS OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS A Thesis in Ecology by Danelle Laflower Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science August 2015 The thesis of Danelle Laflower was reviewed and approved* by the following: Matthew D. Hurteau Assistant Professor of Forest Resources, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management Thesis Advisor Margot W. Kaye Associate Professor of Forest Ecology, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management Katriona Shea Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences, Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics David Eissenstat Professor of Woody Plant Physiology Chair of Ecology Intercollege Graduate Degree Program *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School iii ABSTRACT Tree species have differential responses to changing climate, which may affect competitive interactions and alter species composition and forest carbon dynamics. In energy-limited systems, warming temperatures may lengthen growing season and increase water demand. In water-limited systems, increased evapotranspiration associated with warmer temperatures may limit species diversity and productivity. Management may help maintain productivity under changing climate by reducing competition for resources, increasing heterogeneity, and decreasing disturbance risk. I sought to quantify how projected changes in climate may alter the composition and productivity of Puget Lowland forests, and how management could mitigate changes. I also sought to determine the effects of management on, and carbon tradeoffs of, restoring oak woodland habitats. I used a simulation approach to model four landscape-scale treatments (control, burn only, thin only, thin and burn) using current climate and projected climate for two general circulation models (CCSM 4 and CNRM-CM5), driven by two emission scenarios (moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions) at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington. At the landscape-scale, I found little difference in carbon dynamics and species composition under the moderate emission scenarios. However, by late-century under the high emission scenario, I found substantial declines in productivity due to a decrease in late-successional species growth. The major effect of management was to increase net ecosystem carbon balance after 2030, relative to the control. Relative to 2012, I found the frequency of sites that were likely to contain Oregon white oak decreased over time under all treatments, regardless of climate. To counteract the decline, I added an intensively managed 708 ha oak restoration area (2% of the landscape) to the landscape-scale thin and burn treatment. Relative to the thin and burn treatment, the intensive management increased oak presence and incurred small initial carbon costs (<400 g C m-2) that decreased over time. My research suggests that under the late-century high emission scenario, management cannot alter the climate- driven decline of late-successional species, but intensive management can alter forest structure, which may increase species richness and help alleviate declines in productivity. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. ix Projecting the effects of climate change and management in forests of the Puget Sound Lowlands .......................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 Methods ............................................................................................................................ 4 Study Area ................................................................................................................ 4 Field Data ................................................................................................................. 6 Simulation Approach................................................................................................ 7 Model Parameterization ........................................................................................... 8 Climate Data ............................................................................................................. 16 Simulation Experiment and Data Analysis .............................................................. 16 Data and Model Limitations ..................................................................................... 18 Results .............................................................................................................................. 19 Climate Effects on Forest C Dynamics and Species Composition ........................... 19 Management Effects on Forest C Dynamics and Species Composition .................. 25 Oak Restoration ........................................................................................................ 31 Discussion ........................................................................................................................ 37 Productivity and Carbon Stocks ............................................................................... 37 Successional Trajectory ............................................................................................ 38 Management Effects on Forest Productivity and Composition ................................ 39 Managing Under Uncertainty ................................................................................... 40 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 42 References ........................................................................................................................ 43 Appendix A Annual projected temperature data. ............................................................ 51 Appendix B Annual projected precipitation data. ........................................................... 52 Appendix C LANDIS-II decadal summer (June, July, August) precipitation. ............... 53 Appendix D LANDIS-II decadal temperature projections. ............................................ 54 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Joint Base Lewis-McChord and surrounding area land cover. Study area location within Washington in red. .................................................................................. 6 Figure 2. Comparison of aboveground biomass (AGB) of field plot data (n=346) and LANDIS-II output of all forested pixels (n=5533). Boxes represent interquartile range. ................................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 3. Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB) under baseline climate and climate projections from two general circulation models (CCSM and CNRM), driven by moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios. Lines are the mean NECB and shading the 95% confidence intervals from 25 replicate simulations. ........... 21 Figure 4. Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB) under baseline climate and an average result from two general circulation model projections (CCSM and CNRM) driven by moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios. Lines are the mean NECB and shading the 95% confidence interval estimates from 25 replicate simulations. ...................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 5. Year 2100 species richness comparison of baseline climate and climate projections from two general circulation models (CCSM and CNRM), driven by moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios for frequency of cells for a particular species richness. Lines are the mean species richness and shading the 95% confidence intervals from 25 replicate simulations. Confidence intervals appear small due to the scale of the Y axis relative to the size of the confidence interval. ............................................................................................................................ 23 Figure 6. Landscape-scale aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks for Douglas-fir and pooled late successional species (western hemlock and western redcedar) under baseline climate and climate projections from two general circulation models (CCSM and CNRM), driven by moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios. Lines are the mean AGC and shading the 95% confidence intervals from 25 replicate simulations. Confidence intervals appear small due to the scale of the Y axis relative to the size of the confidence interval. .................................................................. 24 Figure 7. Total Ecosystem Carbon (TEC) under baseline climate and climate projections from two general circulation models (CCSM and CNRM), driven by moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios. Lines are the mean TEC and shading the 95% confidence interval estimates from 25 replicate simulations. Confidence intervals
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