NIDEA WORKING NIDEA PAPERS National Institute of Demographic No 7 Nov 2016 and Economic Analysis

New Zealand’s towns and rural centres 1976-2013 –

experimental components of growth

Natalie Jackson, Lars Brabyn and Dave Maré

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New Zealand’s towns and rural centres 1976-2013 – experimental components of growth1,2

Natalie Jackson, Lars Brabyn and Dave Maré

Disclaimer The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect any official position on the part of NIDEA or the University of Waikato.

New Zealand’s towns and rural centres 1976-2013 – experimental components of growth1,2

1 Work on this paper was supported by a New Zealand Royal Society Marsden-Funded programme of research: Tai Timu Tangata: Taihoa e? (The subnational mechanisms of the ending of population growth: Towards a theory of depopulation) [Contract MAU1308].

2 Description: The tables for towns and rural centres were created by Dave Maré (Motu Research) under microdata access agreement with Statistics New Zealand, MAA2003/18. [email protected]. The tables contain counts of the 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2013 usual resident population by age and sex, grouped by 2013 geographic area boundaries (Territorial Authority and Urban Area). The Urban Area classification has been extended to identify rural centres (ua13=501) separately (using 2013 Area Unit codes). The allocation to 2013 geographic areas is based on a user-derived correspondence. Just to reiterate the disclaimer, the counts are not official statistics but should be thought of estimates intended for use in research.

Disclaimer: Access to the data used in this study was provided by Statistics New Zealand under conditions designed to give effect to the security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. The results presented in these tables are the work of the author, not Statistics New Zealand

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Abstract

In this paper we report on the approximate size, rate of change and contribution of migration and natural increase for 276 New Zealand towns and rural centres for the period 1976-2013. We also consider, by way of the Pearson correlation coefficient (‘r), a limited set of explanatory variables. We undertook this exercise as part of a broader analysis seeking to understand why some towns and centres grow and others don’t, following the formative work on urban populations by Grimes and Tarrant (2013). We also wanted to examine the extent to which New Zealand’s towns and rural centres may be following their international counterparts in declining from what Burcher and Mai (2005) propose is a ‘new’ form of population decline (where net migration loss is accompanied by natural decrease). However because the components of change (migration, births and deaths) are not available for most of these jurisdictions we had to first extract them via statistical means. Overall, we find a generally clustered pattern of growth and decline that fits well with Grimes and Tarrant’s results for their 60 main urban areas. We find that both growth from the combined effect of net migration gain and natural increase, and from natural increase offsetting net migration loss, is slowly giving way to decline from natural increase being unable to conceal net migration loss, more so for rural centres than towns. We also find the new form of population decline to be present, but as yet affecting very small numbers of towns and rural centres. At the same time, towns are more likely than rural centres to have proportions aged 65+ years in excess of 20 per cent. As a result they are experiencing a faster shift to natural decrease than rural centres.

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In this paper we report on the approximate size, rate of change and contribution of migration and natural increase (births minus deaths) for 276 New Zealand towns and rural centres for the period 1976-2013. We also consider, by way of the Pearson correlation coefficient (‘r), a limited set of explanatory variables following Johnson, Field and Poston (2015) in their comparison of the ‘counties’ of the United States (US) and Europe.

We undertook this exercise as part of a broader analysis seeking to understand why some towns and centres grow and others don’t (Brabyn and Jackson forthcoming)3, following the formative work on urban populations by Grimes and Tarrant (2013). We also wanted to examine the extent to which New Zealand’s towns and rural centres may be following their international counterparts and declining from a new form of decline (where net migration loss is accompanied by natural decrease4) rather than the ‘old’ form (where natural increase was insufficient to offset net migration loss), as proposed by Burcher and Mai (2005, cited in Matanle and Rausch 2011: 19-20, 46-47). However because the components of change (migration, births and deaths) are not available for most of these jurisdictions, we had to first extract them via statistical means. In order to accommodate boundary changes, births by age of mother and population by age and sex also had to be aggregated to 2013 geographic area boundaries. The data sources and methodology are outlined below, followed by an overview of the results. Eight appendices contain detailed data generated by the analysis.

Data Sources and Methodology:

Ordinarily New Zealand’s census of population and dwellings is carried out in March at five year intervals (1976, 1981 etc.). However, with Statistics New Zealand’s head office located in Christchurch, the 2011 Christchurch earthquakes caused the 2011 census to be delayed to March 2013, resulting in a disruption to the time series and a seven year gap between 2006 and 2013. Where relevant, results are annualised.

Population data: Mesh-block level counts of the usually resident population by 5-year age group (to 80+ years) and sex for all census years 1976-2013 were aggregated to the 2013 geographic area boundaries at urban area (UA) level (Database 1). The allocation to 2013 geographic areas was based on a ‘user-derived correspondence’. The counts are not official statistics but should be thought of

3 Both papers are supported by a Royal Society Marsden Fund grant (Contract MAU1308 - The subnational mechanisms of the ending of population growth. Towards a theory of depopulation). 4 Natural decrease is where deaths exceed births.

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experimental estimates intended for use in research.5 This exercise resulted in data for 143 urban areas and 133 rural centres.

Birth and survivorship rates for all years for which these data were required are not available at urban area or rural centre level, and were instead constructed using indirect standardisation. In order to construct birth rates we purchased a customised dataset from Statistics New Zealand (2016) covering births by 5-year age group of mother for the period 1997-2013 (June years) at territorial authority area (TA) level and 2013 geographic boundaries. Survivorship (Lx) rates by age and sex for each TA were accessed for the years 2005-07 and 2012-14 (Statistics New Zealand 2015a).

Calculating missing birth rates via indirect standardisation was done in two main steps. First, age- specific fertility rates were constructed for each of New Zealand’s 67 TAs for the June years 1996-97, 2001-02, and 2006-2013, using number of births by age of mother as sourced above, and female estimated resident population counts for corresponding 5-year age groups 15-49 years sourced from Statistics New Zealand (2015b). The age-specific fertility rates for 1996 and 2001 were then summed and averaged (for each age group and each TA), and their ratio to the equivalent rates for total New Zealand constructed (drawing on Statistics New Zealand 2015c). These relative age-specific fertility ratios for each TA were then held constant and multiplied by the equivalent rates for total New Zealand for the missing years, 1976, 1981, 1986, and 1991. That is, the national values were retrospectively inflated or deflated by the relevant ratio, for each of the four observations 1976- 1991, to generate approximate TA level age-specific rates for those years.

The second step involved constructing age-specific fertility rates for each town and rural centre, by applying the age-specific rates for the TA in which each is located to the number of women in each 5-year age group 15-49 years, in each town and rural centre (from Database 1).

The resulting birth rates and numbers at TA level differ slightly from those published by Statistics New Zealand (2015d) because they are constructed experimentally using both the ‘estimated resident population count’ (ERP) which includes adjustments for births, deaths and migration occurring between March and the ERP date (typically June or December), and the ‘usually resident population count’ (URP) at each five-yearly census (which is taken in March). As with the underlying population counts, the fertility data should be thought of as best approximations extracted for these research purposes.

5 Disclaimer: Access to the data for Database 1 was provided by Statistics New Zealand under conditions designed to give effect to the security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. The results presented in these tables are the work of the author, not Statistics New Zealand.

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Calculating missing survivorship rates via indirect standardisation was similarly done in two steps. First, Lx values (the average number alive in each age group6) by 5-year age group and sex for each TA for two Life-Table periods, 2005-07 and 2012-14, were compared to the average number alive in the preceding 5-year age group. This process produced sex- and age-specific survivorship ratios for each five-year age group to 95+ years, for these two observations (for the purposes of this exercise, considered to be 2006 and 2013). The 2006 ratios were then compared with their national equivalents, to generate relative survivorship ratios for each TA for the missing years: 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, and 2001. That is, for each of those observations, the national values were retrospectively inflated or deflated by the relevant sex- and age-specific survivorship ratios for each TA in 2005-2007, to generate approximate TA level rates.

The second step involved constructing sex- and age-specific survivorship rates for each town and rural centre, by applying the rates for the TA in which each is located, to the number of males and females in each five year age group, in each town and rural centre (Database 1). In order to survive age groups above 80 years, the 80+ year age group from Database 1 was prorated to 80-84, 85-89, 90-94 and 95+ years according to the New Zealand distribution (by sex) at those ages.

Again the resulting data are ‘best approximations’ based on calendar year survivorship ratios and census usually resident population counts.

When the resulting data are compared with published birth and death numbers for each TA, which are available for all years 1992-2013, there is strong correspondence, and the model is thus considered sufficiently robust to use for our purposes of calculating the components of change for towns and rural centres. This is done using cohort component analysis and the ‘residual’ method for separating net migration from net change (e.g., Rowland 2003, Chapter 12).

Calculating components of change by the residual method: The resulting fertility and survivorship rates were used in a conventional cohort component analysis to separate out the contributing effects of both net migration and natural increase. First, survivorship rates for each age group were applied to the baseline usually resident population numbers for each individual observation (separately by sex), and fertility rates applied to survived women aged 15-49 years. The resulting births were summed and apportioned male/female according to the standard sex ratio for New Zealand (105 males per 100 females). Births were entered at age 0-4 years, and all other age groups ‘aged’ by five years. The resulting ‘expected’ population by age and sex was then compared to the actual population at the relevant observation (for example, the survived and ‘reproduced’

6 Lx values are a statistical function of the Life Table, via which life expectancy is calculated.

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population from 1976 was compared to the actual population for 1981), and the difference at each age (five-year age group) taken to be a residual measure of net migration by age across the five year period. Subtracting total estimated migration from net change in population size between the two observations in turn generates the natural increase component, which in turn is disaggregated into its births and deaths components by summing each individual component generated at each step.

Results: As indicated, all results in this paper should be seen as best approximations produced primarily for research purposes and they differ slightly from numbers published by Statistics New Zealand (where such data are available); however comparison with published data indicates they are sufficiently robust. Additionally, because the model treats all towns and rural centres in an identical manner, the relative trends can be considered strongly indicative of actual differences in the demographic causes of growth and decline between these jurisdictions. It should be further noted that the analysis excludes a sizeable and overall increasing number of people from very small ‘townships’, collectively numbering 398,430 persons in 1976 and 514,000 in 2013, and aggregated in one category as ‘other rural’, and a small and overall declining number ‘not classified’, 4,620 in 1976 and 690 in 2013. Accordingly, when discussing the data for individual towns and rural centres, where relevant, we report on both number/percentage of towns, and percentage of the total New Zealand population, affected. We also draw briefly on demographic transition theory (Davis 1945; Notestein 1945; Coale 1973; Lutz, Sanderson and Sherbov 2004) to assist interpretation of the trends.

We find that the majority of New Zealand’s 143 towns grew between each census 1976-2013 (Figure 1 and Table 1, see also Appendix A for underlying numbers). The only period where this did not occur was between 1996 and 2001, when just under 41 per cent experienced growth. However there is an overall decline to the trend, with just on 70 per cent of towns experiencing growth between 1976 and 1981, falling to 64.3 per cent between 2006 and 2013 (noting that the latter is also for a seven year period).

The trend was similar for New Zealand’s 133 rural centres, but occurred at lower levels, with 51 per cent (N=68) growing at the beginning of the period and 39 per cent (N=52) at the end (Figure 1). In the relatively low growth period 1996-01, less than 38 per cent of rural centres grew (N=50), and as indicated, proportions have scarcely risen above that since. Overall, 61 per cent of towns and rural centres were growing at the beginning of the period, and 52 per cent at the end.

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Figure 1: Percentage of towns and rural centres growing in size between census years 1976-2013

80 69.9 70 60.9 64.3 60

52.2 50 51.1 40 39.1

percentage 30 40.9

20

10

0 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Towns Rural Centres Total Growing

Missing from Figure 1 but shown on Table 1 are the small number of towns and rural centres that were experiencing zero growth at each observation. The trends for each individual jurisdiction indicate they are declining in size, so while have been shown separately in most of the following tables and graphs, they should be thought of as declining in most instances. With this caveat in mind they have been included among persons living in declining towns in Figure 2 and Table 2 (following).

Table 1: Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres growing or declining in size or experiencing zero growth between census years, 1976-2013 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 Towns Growing 69.9 69.9 60.8 64.3 44.1 66.4 64.3 Declining 28.7 29.4 37.1 35.0 55.9 33.6 35.7 Zero Growth 1.4 0.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number 143 143 143 143 143 143 143

Rural Centres Growing 51.1 58.6 49.6 60.2 37.6 39.8 39.1 Declining 47.4 39.8 50.4 39.8 62.4 59.4 59.4 Zero Growth 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number 133 133 133 133 133 133 133

Total Growing 60.9 64.5 55.4 62.3 40.9 53.6 52.2 Declining 37.7 34.4 43.5 37.3 59.1 46.0 47.1 Zero Growth 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number 276 276 276 276 276 276 276

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Figure 2 and Table 2 express these data in terms of population numbers and percentages affected by growth and decline. The period 1976-2013 was, as elsewhere, one of continuing urbanisation for New Zealand. However the transition was nearly complete in 1976, with just on 86 per cent of the total New Zealand population living in the 143 towns in both 1976 and 2013 (at 2013 boundaries), and the proportion in rural centres declining slightly from 2.2 to 1.7 per cent. Accounting for the difference, the proportion living in an ‘other rural’ area has remained constant at just over 12 per cent (Table 2). New Zealand’s continuing urbanisation over the period thus reflects not so much further rural to urban shifts, but rather an increase in the proportion of the population living in growing towns, from 48 to 72 per cent, and a decline in the proportion living everywhere else: in rural centres irrespective of whether growing or declining, and in declining towns.

Figure 2: Percentage of New Zealand population living in growing/declining towns and rural centres, 1976-2013

90

80 81.1 74.0 77.1 72.5 70 63.4 60

50 49.8

40 37.8 percentage 30 24.5 20 13.5 15.4 10 10.6 5.1 0 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Growing Declining

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Table 2: Number and percentage of New Zealand population living in growing/declining towns and rural centres, 1976-2013, by size/percentage at end year of period

Population in: Percentage of New Zealand Population in: 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Growing Towns 1525011 2372385 2398671 2740335 2342157 3286848 3040221 48.5 72.7 71.1 75.7 62.7 81.6 71.7 Declining Towns 1162017 412728 491616 358347 870819 187155 615210 37.0 12.6 14.6 9.9 23.3 4.6 14.5 Towns (Total People) 2687028 2785113 2890287 3098682 3212976 3474003 3655431 85.5 85.3 85.7 85.6 86.0 86.2 86.2

Growing Rural Centres 41142 42747 37452 47598 27153 34806 35940 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 Declining Rural Centres 27681 28470 34638 26967 44760 36702 36009 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 Rural Centres (Total People) 68823 71217 72090 74565 71913 71508 71949 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7

Growing (Total) 1566153 2415132 2436123 2787933 2369310 3267354 3076161 49.8 74.0 72.2 77.1 63.4 81.1 72.5 Declining (Total) 1189698 441198 526254 385314 915579 205266 651219 37.8 13.5 15.6 10.6 24.5 5.1 15.4 Total People (Classified) 2755851 2856330 2962377 3173247 3284889 3472620 3727380 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.7 87.9 86.2 87.9

Other Rural (inc. Offshore) 386661 405171 410901 443412 451320 481617 513963 12.3 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.1 Not Classified 792 1749 654 1665 1095 828 690 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Population 3143304 3263250 3373932 3618324 3737304 4027956 4242033 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Notes: People living in towns experiencing zero growth have been included in declining towns

The trends indicate a correlation with international migration (Figure 3). In the low growth period 1996-2001 noted above, New Zealand experienced three years of net international migration loss, and in the high growth period, 2001-2006, significant net gain in all years, followed by negative migration again in 2005 and 2010-12. Undoubtedly these shifts are reflected in the growth and implied decline at urban and rural centre level. However New Zealand also experienced net international migration loss across much of the 1970s and 1980s, when the largest proportions of towns and rural centres grew, suggesting that international migration does not explain everything. Indeed most of New Zealand’s growth has historically been due to natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—which has tended to conceal underlying migration loss. Even in numerically dominant Auckland, natural increase has accounted for around 58 per cent of growth over the past two decades (Jackson 2016: 49, see also Pool, Baxendine and Cochrane 200; dine, Cochrane and Lindop 2005). This component is now diminishing, as population ageing results in proportionately fewer people at reproductive age, and will end in most areas over the next few decades (Jackson and Cameron 2016). Accordingly, we present the findings first in terms of ‘cluster’ according to population size in 1976, and then in terms of the contribution to growth or decline of net migration and natural increase.

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Figure 3: Estimated Net Migration (December Years), 1976-2013

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000 Number 0

-20,000

-40,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Statistics New Zealand 2015b

Change based on usual resident population size in 1976. Following Grimes and Tarrant (2013), Figure 4 shows data for all towns and rural centres with over 3,000 people in 1976, clustered into 10 groups and covering a total of 78 towns. These towns accounted for 81.8 per cent of the New Zealand population in 1976 and 82.4 per cent in 2013, essentially no change. In order to dampen down its dominant size for comparative purposes, Auckland is presented under its four separate zones (Northern, Central, Western and Southern), although collectively it was the single largest urban area in all years, with Christchurch second-largest, dropping to 3rd after the 2011 earthquakes. Among the Auckland zones, Central Auckland was the single largest in both 1976 and 2013, but the slowest growing (+46 per cent between 1976 and 2013), and in fact experienced short-term decline between 1976 and 1981. Southern Auckland has doubled in size, while Northern and Western Auckland have each almost done so (see Table 3).

The largest town in 1976 in each group is depicted by a dashed line on the graphs and bolded font on Table 3. Focusing first on these data it can be seen that among the groups, the largest town in 1976 remained the largest in 2013 only two cases: Central Auckland Zone (Group 1) and Cambridge Zone (Group 7); in all other cases the 1976 leader has been superseded by one or more towns. Notable also is the number of towns among these relatively large areas (compared with town populations numbering fewer than 3,000 in 1976, see below and Appendix B) evidencing population decline, with 27 of these 78 ‘large’ towns (34.6 per cent) smaller in 2013 than in 1996. Additionally, a general pattern emerges which indicates that the smaller the group’s population size in 1976, the greater the variance in 2013, observable from Table 3 in terms of greater changes in rank.

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The changes in rank on Table 3 (based on all 276 towns and rural centres) between 1976 and 2013 indicate that 11 of the largest towns in 1976 were no longer among those towns in 2013, prominent among them Twizel (falling from #51 to #136), Bluff (from #77 to #109) and Waiouru (from #78 to #171). The 11 towns which replaced them are discussed further below.

Overall, we find a generally clustered pattern of growth and decline that fits well with Grimes and Tarrant’s (2013) results for their 60 main urban areas.7 Because we start from a later base (1976) than Grimes and Tarrant, we cannot directly compare the data, but see similar trends and patterns. For example, although grouped with different towns in 1926 and 1976, Tauranga’s runaway growth has continued among our towns, rising from smallest to largest of our Group 3 towns and from #14 to #8. Rising from #18 to #13, Nelson similarly shows the same escalating growth among our Group 4 towns as it does among Grimes and Tarrant’s Group 5 towns, although in our Group 4 towns it leads the group from 2001, while in 2006 it is still ascending through Grimes and Tarrant’s Group 5 towns. Decline over the 1976-2006 period in the Grimes and Tarrant data is also reflected among our towns, notably for Dunedin and Wanganui which featured in Grimes and Tarrant’s largest group in 1926, and in our Group 2 and 4 towns, respectively, in 1976. However in terms of rank they remain among the larger towns, Dunedin falling from #7 to #9 and Wanganui from #20 to #21. Increasing variance between growth and decline vis-à-vis group baseline size is also greater among Grimes and Tarrant’s smaller than larger towns, as it is with ours. Generally, therefore, both studies agree that some of the larger towns in both 1926 and 1976 have not been immune to decline, while many of the smaller towns have grown significantly—but with increasing variance among each group, the smaller the baseline size.

7 Towns were included in the Grimes and Tarrant database if they met at least one of the following criteria: a) They were categorised as an “urban area” by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) in 2006; b) They were categorised as a “secondary urban area” by SNZ in 1986; c) The borough population was at least 3,000 in 1956; d) The borough population was at least 1,500 in 1926. These criteria capture all significant towns in 1926 and 1956, as well as larger urban areas in 1986 and 2006, but notably exclude towns like Kawerau and Queenstown which did not meet all criteria.

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Figure 4: Numbers 1976-2013 for towns over 3,000 in 1976, clustered by size in 1976 (usually resident population count) Group 1 (200K and over in 1976) Group 2 (100K-150k in 1976) 450,000 300,000 Wellington Zone 400,000 Central Auckland Zone 250,000 350,000 Northern Auckland Christchurch 300,000 200,000 Zone Western Auckland 250,000 Southern Auckland Zone Zone 150,000 200,000 Number Number Dunedin 150,000 100,000 100,000 Hamilton Zone 50,000 50,000 Lower Hutt Zone 0 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

Group 3 (50k-65k in 1976) Group 4 (35k-50k in 1976) 140,000 70,000 Rotorua 120,000 60,000 New Plymouth 100,000 50,000 Palmerston North Porirua Zone 80,000 Invercargill 40,000 Nelson Hastings Zone 60,000 Whangarei Number 30,000 Number Napier Zone Wanganui 40,000 20,000 Tauranga Upper Hutt Zone 20,000 10,000 Gisborne

0 0 Timaru 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

Group 5 (15k-22k in 1976) Group 6 (10k-15k in 1976) 45,000 30,000 40,000 Oamaru 25,000 35,000 Taupo Blenheim 30,000 Whakatane Masterton 20,000 25,000 Pukekohe Tokoroa 15,000 20,000 Te Awamutu Zone Number Kapiti Number 15,000 Gore Levin 10,000 10,000 Feilding Ashburton 5,000 5,000 Greymouth

0 0 Hawera 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

Group 7 (6k-10k in 1976) Group 8 (5k-6k in 1976) 20,000 8,000 18,000 7,000 Dannevirke 16,000 Cambridge Zone Wairoa 6,000 14,000 Kawerau Stratford 12,000 5,000 Rangiora Turangi 10,000 4,000 Taumarunui Marton Number

8,000 Number Thames 3,000 Twizel Community 6,000 Waitara 2,000 Matamata 4,000 Huntly 2,000 1,000 Motueka 0 0 Morrinsville 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

Group 9 (4k-5k in 1976) Group 10 (3k-4k in 1976) 8,000 9,000 Balclutha Alexandra 7,000 8,000 Foxton Community Westport Waipukurau 7,000 6,000 Te Kuiti Waiuku 6,000 Hokitika 5,000 Putaruru Kaikohe 5,000 4,000 Dargaville Waihi 4,000 Temuka Number

Otaki Number 3,000 Te Aroha Te Puke Community 3,000 2,000 Waimate Kaitaia 2,000 Picton 1,000 Opotiki Carterton 1,000 Bluff 0 0 Paeroa Waiouru 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

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Table 3: Numbers, change (%) and rank (1976, 2013) for towns over 3,000 people in 1976 and clustered by size in 1976 (usually resident population count) Change 1976- Rank in Rank in Change 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 2013 (%) 1976 2013 in Rank Group 1 Central Auckland Zone 294627 281757 288873 299628 338163 359454 395982 427101 45.0 1 1 0 Christchurch 293298 290169 295746 303411 325251 334107 360765 353346 20.5 2 3 (1) Southern Auckland Zone 199110 221223 238212 261426 291654 321516 371718 401892 101.8 3 2 1 Group 2 Wellington Zone 151695 147054 147087 147792 156987 163086 178680 190062 25.3 4 6 (2) Northern Auckland Zone 138006 151263 162888 176253 202284 219894 248115 273588 98.2 5 4 1 Western Auckland Zone 109182 118146 126975 140940 159738 173616 192318 206247 88.9 6 5 1 Dunedin 113208 106968 107331 107523 110790 107088 111000 112023 (1.0) 7 9 (2) Hamilton Zone 106188 109938 114723 120687 131331 138792 155262 170562 60.6 8 7 1 Lower Hutt Zone 97398 95724 94776 94380 95382 95022 97146 97650 0.3 9 10 (1) Group 3 Palmerston North 62958 65667 66963 70287 73926 72777 76110 78201 24.2 10 11 (1) Invercargill 53175 53745 52818 51540 49404 46305 46773 47895 (9.9) 11 19 (8) Hastings Zone 52887 54963 56859 57402 58587 59208 62118 63999 21.0 12 12 0 Napier Zone 50127 51846 52524 52122 54297 54537 56286 58218 16.1 13 14 (1) Tauranga 49881 55752 62574 70443 82383 95934 109131 120414 141.4 14 8 6 Group 4 Rotorua 44625 46425 48855 50772 52953 52605 53766 53268 19.4 15 15 0 New Plymouth 43299 43818 47370 47652 48870 47763 49281 52686 21.7 16 16 0 Porirua Zone 42792 42606 45825 46428 46443 47220 48396 51537 20.4 17 17 0 Nelson 41058 42270 43725 45876 50694 53688 56367 60558 47.5 18 13 5 Whangarei 38979 40170 44118 44406 45963 46104 49080 49167 26.1 19 18 1 Wanganui 38952 39435 40512 41100 41097 39420 38988 38088 (2.2) 20 21 (1) Upper Hutt Zone 35253 35919 35670 35547 35190 34599 36399 37875 7.4 21 22 (1) Gisborne 31650 32205 32016 31401 32607 31719 32526 32694 3.3 22 23 (1) Timaru 29451 29301 28692 27783 27171 26745 26886 27051 (8.1) 23 25 (2) Group 5 Blenheim 21018 22017 22992 23781 25698 26607 28443 29298 39.4 24 24 0 Masterton 20088 19431 19353 19767 19689 19497 19494 20100 0.1 25 28 (3) Tokoroa 19491 19605 18585 16650 15528 14430 13527 12714 (34.8) 26 37 (11) Kapiti 19005 20340 23037 27345 30288 33672 37347 39498 107.8 27 20 7 Levin 18324 18297 19071 19290 19326 19047 19134 19437 6.1 28 29 (1) Ashburton 15474 15438 15474 15531 15786 15774 16740 18468 19.3 29 30 (1) Group 6 Oamaru 14190 14184 13968 13539 13416 12696 12681 13050 (8.0) 30 36 (6) Taupo 14007 14754 16359 17301 19443 20610 21510 21864 56.1 31 27 4 Whakatane 13893 14943 15942 16662 17496 17778 18207 17934 29.1 32 31 1 Pukekohe 13248 13485 14217 15324 16914 18825 22518 26526 100.2 33 26 7 Te Awamutu Zone 12096 12129 12603 13089 13710 13449 14454 15180 25.5 34 33 1 Gore 11745 11940 11352 10956 10617 9927 9648 9552 (18.7) 35 42 (7) Feilding 11718 12246 12816 13530 14040 13641 13890 14823 26.5 36 35 1 Greymouth 11547 11109 10836 10161 10353 9675 9777 9660 (16.3) 37 40 (3) Hawera 11538 11580 11643 11535 11436 10944 10773 11220 (2.8) 38 39 (1) Group 7 Cambridge Zone 9417 10119 11316 12372 13005 13890 15300 17706 88.0 39 32 7 Kawerau 7722 8784 8565 8337 7830 6975 6921 6363 (17.6) 40 54 (14) Rangiora 7215 7761 8415 8877 9999 10950 12138 15018 108.1 41 34 7 Taumarunui 6612 6522 6468 6141 5832 5136 5052 4503 (31.9) 42 63 (21) Thames 6603 6432 6414 6411 6810 6705 6756 6693 1.4 43 50 (7) Waitara 6339 6177 6837 6678 6507 6246 6291 6483 2.3 44 52 (8) Huntly 6279 7158 7464 7152 7068 6819 6834 6957 10.8 45 49 (4) Group 8 Dannevirke 5610 5700 5880 5769 5541 5379 5520 5043 (10.1) 46 57 (11) Wairoa 5457 5463 5250 5112 5007 4428 4272 4050 (25.8) 47 72 (25) Stratford 5445 5709 5799 5688 5664 5229 5337 5463 0.3 48 56 (8) Turangi 5415 5484 3870 3852 3747 3441 3240 2955 (45.4) 49 87 (38) Marton 5280 5247 5337 5355 5301 4710 4680 4548 (13.9) 50 61 (11) Twizel Community 5223 4233 1179 1020 1179 1011 1017 1137 (78.2) 51 136 (85) Matamata 5175 5409 5769 5805 5907 6138 6309 7092 37.0 52 47 5 Motueka 5151 5514 5814 6270 6612 6891 7128 7605 47.6 53 45 8 Morrinsville 5127 5385 5571 5847 5937 6198 6603 6996 36.5 54 48 6 Group 9 Balclutha 4983 4725 4467 4212 4137 4104 4065 3918 (21.4) 55 76 (21) Westport 4950 4650 4581 4494 4239 3783 3897 4032 (18.5) 56 74 (18) Te Kuiti 4878 4863 4815 4827 4629 4392 4452 4221 (13.5) 57 68 (11) Putaruru 4488 4350 4260 4248 4047 3786 3765 3777 (15.8) 58 82 (24) Dargaville 4467 4647 4767 4764 4479 4530 4455 4251 (4.8) 59 66 (7) Otaki 4386 4494 4680 5421 5580 5643 5463 5778 31.7 60 55 5 Te Puke Community 4299 5247 5868 6165 6495 6774 7080 7494 74.3 61 46 15 Kaitaia 4215 4494 4749 5049 5280 5148 5202 4887 15.9 62 58 4 Carterton 4029 4056 3984 4212 4167 4101 4122 4686 16.3 63 60 3 Paeroa 4017 3924 3996 4026 4062 3879 3975 3885 (3.3) 64 80 (16) Group 10 Alexandra 3936 4248 4698 4557 4617 4407 4824 4800 22.0 65 59 6 Foxton Community 3846 3861 4278 4641 4761 4620 4446 4287 11.5 66 65 1 Waipukurau 3810 3771 4116 3957 4002 3909 4008 3741 (1.8) 67 83 (16) Waiuku 3792 3918 4683 5349 5895 6537 7563 8427 122.2 68 43 25 Hokitika 3765 3876 3789 3750 3801 3480 3537 3450 (8.4) 69 85 (16) Kaikohe 3741 3816 4014 4137 4107 4023 4113 3915 4.7 70 77 (7) Waihi 3741 3828 4062 4575 4743 4524 4503 4527 21.0 71 62 9 Temuka 3735 3807 3984 4005 3981 3996 4044 4047 8.4 72 73 (1) Te Aroha 3531 3597 3732 3831 3840 3684 3771 3906 10.6 73 79 (6) Waimate 3393 3423 3279 3141 2952 2757 2835 2775 (18.2) 74 88 (14) Picton 3324 3231 3387 3531 3906 3990 4086 4056 22.0 75 70 5 Opotiki 3261 3603 3870 4287 4263 4158 4176 3876 18.9 76 81 (5) Bluff 3075 2835 2601 2409 2082 1932 1788 1794 (41.7) 77 109 (32) Waiouru 3033 3051 3171 2376 2478 1647 1383 741 (75.6) 78 171 (93) Total these towns 2537946 2585274 2673159 2771910 2969394 3077721 3326187 3493329 37.6 … … … These towns as % of Total NZ 81.8 82.2 81.9 82.2 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.4 … … … …

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Pre-empting the later analysis on the demographic contributors to the growth and decline of towns and rural centres, we find no instances of net decline at any observation slowing the growth of the extra-ordinary ‘leader’ towns of each group, and only occasional instances of either natural decrease (three observations for Kapiti and one for Motueka) or net migration loss (one observation each for Western Auckland, Pukekohe and Waiuku); the two negative components never occur together. For the most part these towns have experienced both unchecked natural increase and net migration gains. However with the exception of the four Auckland Zones (all in Groups 1 and 2) and Pukekohe (the runaway leader of Group 6), the remaining fastest growing towns all have somewhat older age structures than the average (Appendix C), indicating the presence of substantial retiree migration. This was particularly the case for Tauranga, Nelson, Kapiti, Cambridge, Motueka and Te Puke, the fastest growing towns of Groups 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 9, with Waiuku, the leading town of Group 10, close behind. This is of some importance, because in total, those living in towns have somewhat younger age structures than those living in rural centres, and have not aged as fast. The findings suggest that these older ‘leader’ towns will soon begin to experience natural decrease, as has already been evidenced for Kapiti and Motueka, and this onset is likely to check their currently greater growth.

We do not report in detail on the data for all towns and rural centres with populations smaller than 3,000 people in 1976 (refer Appendix B). Instead we turn to a brief analysis of those that have either grown or declined substantially since 1976. Substantial growth will refer to towns and rural centres with populations of 3,000 or fewer in 1976 that have at least doubled in size (Table 4); significant decline to similarly sized towns and rural centres in 1976 that have declined by more than 25 per cent (Table 5).

Jurisdictions that have more than doubled in size since 1976: Table 4 indicates that 40 of jurisdictions with fewer than 3,000 people in 1976 have more than doubled in size since 1976, with 21 growing by over 200 per cent, and four by over 500 per cent. The 11 towns replacing the 1976 leaders in Table 3 are all in this group: Rolleston (#41 in 2013), Wanaka (#53) Snell’s Beach (#67), Queenstown (#38), Cromwell (#69), Whitianga (#64), Kerikeri (#51), Lincoln (#75), Katikati (#71), Waiheki Island (#44) and Warkworth (#78). Of note is that all are either adjacent to a large city, beach or lake, or are a major tourist centre—as are most other towns and rural centres on Table 4. In 1976 these jurisdictions accounted for just 1.0 per cent of New Zealand’s population, and in 2013, for 2.5 per cent.

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Table 4: Numbers, change (%) and rank (1976, 2013) for towns and rural centres with populations fewer than 3,000 people in 1976 and more than doubling in size 1976-2013, ordered by growth rate (usually resident population count) Change in size Rank in Rank in 1976- 1976 2013 Change 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 2013 (%) (of 276) (of 276) in Rank Rolleston 1059 933 1107 1308 1467 2667 4953 9555 802.3 126 41 85 RurC_Pegasus 129 18 12 30 42 39 33 1050 714.0 273 144 129 Mangawhai Heads 162 252 435 543 699 720 852 1086 570.4 270 142 128 RurC_Kinloch 81 138 174 222 258 279 327 489 503.7 275 209 66 Arrowtown 420 447 738 900 1428 1692 2151 2445 482.1 216 93 123 Wanaka 1176 1260 1602 1851 2523 3330 5037 6474 450.5 122 53 69 RurC_Kaukapakapa 81 75 99 117 162 180 450 444 448.1 274 221 53 Snells Beach 801 1173 2076 2739 3177 3648 3948 4239 429.2 145 67 78 RurC_Mahurangi 72 81 159 150 168 204 282 354 391.7 276 246 30 RurC_Athenree 147 186 270 396 504 516 612 675 359.2 271 181 90 Woodend 600 1005 1224 1260 1584 2247 2679 2751 358.5 176 89 87 RurC_Parakai Urban 240 303 477 600 735 798 858 1047 336.3 261 146 115 Queenstown 2925 3042 4059 5145 7539 8565 10440 11502 293.2 79 38 41 RurC_Pauanui Beach 207 252 393 582 645 699 744 750 262.3 264 169 95 RurC_Haruru Falls 249 327 429 495 594 678 786 867 248.2 259 155 104 Mapua 606 744 960 1041 1269 1617 1878 2013 232.2 175 100 75 Cromwell 1278 2310 3423 2709 2613 2667 3585 4146 224.4 115 69 46 Whitianga 1365 1704 2094 2424 2994 3078 3765 4368 220.0 112 64 48 Kerikeri 2082 2598 3096 3468 4197 4881 5856 6504 212.4 90 51 39 Lincoln 1257 1386 1914 1686 2367 2208 2835 3924 212.2 118 75 43 RurC_Te Horo 267 327 414 516 612 639 675 807 202.2 255 160 95 Katikati Community 1374 1704 2016 2346 2661 2916 3579 4056 195.2 111 71 40 Waiheke Island 2838 3081 4293 5430 6285 7137 7689 8238 190.3 81 44 37 Whangamata 1218 1521 2244 3174 3765 3963 3555 3474 185.2 120 84 36 RurC_Waikuku 318 360 447 588 726 825 858 900 183.0 244 153 91 RurC_Island View-Pios Beach 192 249 321 441 567 609 561 543 182.8 266 197 69 RurC_Muriwai Beach 405 420 567 738 879 1077 1044 1131 179.3 221 137 84 Brightwater 651 858 933 1023 1242 1425 1791 1749 168.7 168 110 58 RurC_Egmont Village 225 354 459 492 495 468 483 597 165.3 262 189 73 Ngunguru 594 636 984 1017 1266 1290 1425 1527 157.1 179 118 61 Warkworth 1602 1788 2052 2295 2475 2826 3270 3909 144.0 105 78 27 RurC_Himatangi Beach 177 216 339 468 528 540 450 429 142.4 269 230 39 Taipa Bay-Mangonui 708 876 1038 1266 1494 1587 1569 1662 134.7 159 114 45 Tairua 531 639 933 1137 1440 1461 1266 1230 131.6 199 134 65 RurC_Maketu Community 462 681 732 864 987 999 1179 1047 126.6 211 145 66 Amberley 705 846 858 867 1023 1140 1302 1575 123.4 160 117 43 RurC_Maungatapere 597 708 753 684 924 1053 1278 1323 121.6 178 129 49 Wakefield 951 996 1122 1245 1419 1497 1875 2106 121.5 133 99 34 Helensville 1266 1554 1581 1896 2079 2217 2532 2643 108.8 116 91 25 Raglan 1323 1416 1809 2316 2634 2667 2637 2736 106.8 114 90 24 Total these towns 31341 37464 48636 56469 68466 77049 91089 106365 … … … … These towns as % of Total NZ 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 … … … …

Jurisdictions that have declined by more than 20 per cent: At the other end of the scale, 41 towns and rural centres each declined by more than 25 per cent across the 1976-2013 period, and all declined in rank (Table 5). Notable among these are forestry, mining and hydro towns and rural centres, and towns/centres adjacent to previously important railway stations and military camps. All are essentially rural and none match the three main characteristics of the above high growth rate small towns and centres. None were among the leader group in 1976, but five were nevertheless in the top 100 (of 276): Patea (#92 in 1976), Taihape (#83), Murapara (#80), Moerewa (#89) and Shannon (#99). In 1976 these towns and rural centres accounted for 1.2 per cent of New Zealand’s population, and in 2013, for just 0.5 per cent.

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Table 5: Numbers, change (%) and rank (1976, 2013) for towns and rural centres with populations fewer than 3,000 people in 1976 and declining more than 25 per cent 1976-2013, ordered by rate of decline (usually resident population count) Change in size Rank in Rank in 1976- 1976 2013 Change 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 2013 (%) (of 276) (of 276) in Rank RurC_Otematata 690 417 414 420 360 243 186 186 -73.0 163 275 (112) RurC_Ohura 435 420 438 333 372 222 162 129 -70.3 213 276 (63) RurC_Ohai 717 717 696 522 513 399 354 303 -57.7 157 254 (97) RurC_Mangakino 1662 1608 1608 1584 1500 1281 1020 744 -55.2 101 170 (69) RurC_Kaingaroa Forest 930 795 699 588 582 549 486 423 -54.5 135 231 (96) RurC_Waitoa 579 594 564 534 438 360 318 303 -47.7 184 255 (71) Patea 2028 1989 1608 1491 1401 1302 1143 1098 -45.9 92 140 (48) Taihape 2784 2592 2490 2118 2007 1806 1788 1509 -45.8 83 120 (37) RurC_Tuai 402 354 369 327 267 270 252 219 -45.5 222 272 (50) RurC_Nightcaps 534 462 471 426 396 339 309 294 -44.9 197 261 (64) RurC_Kaponga 534 423 420 384 393 351 372 303 -43.3 196 256 (60) Murupara 2913 3006 2595 2394 2205 1959 1839 1656 -43.2 80 115 (35) RurC_Meremere 813 645 618 525 468 354 462 468 -42.4 144 214 (70) RurC_Harihari 552 528 558 429 390 348 348 327 -40.8 192 250 (58) RurC_Tuatapere 915 912 873 750 738 681 582 558 -39.0 136 194 (58) RurC_Owaka 474 450 411 429 402 363 327 303 -36.1 208 257 (49) RurC_Rahotu 381 357 339 342 312 300 252 252 -33.9 225 270 (45) RurC_Waverley 1197 1260 1152 1008 960 906 861 798 -33.3 121 161 (40) RurC_Eketahuna 654 597 654 714 642 579 456 441 -32.6 167 222 (55) Moerewa 2100 2082 1929 1899 1695 1659 1536 1431 -31.9 89 125 (36) RurC_Ratana Community 477 456 462 429 441 426 366 327 -31.4 207 251 (44) RurC_Ranfurly 966 990 972 906 846 732 711 663 -31.4 130 183 (53) RurC_Kaitangata 1107 1053 951 882 864 789 810 762 -31.2 123 166 (43) RurC_Hector-Ngakawau 318 330 318 306 357 300 231 219 -31.1 242 273 (31) RurC_Nuhaka 372 357 393 339 327 327 294 258 -30.6 228 268 (40) RurC_Lumsden Community 582 591 546 501 504 450 411 405 -30.4 183 235 (52) RurC_Hunterville 615 573 510 507 453 507 441 429 -30.2 173 226 (53) RurC_Piopio 567 534 501 507 486 471 468 396 -30.2 187 236 (49) RurC_Clinton 408 468 411 387 345 318 291 285 -30.1 218 264 (46) RurC_Otautau 951 924 882 846 813 729 753 669 -29.7 134 182 (48) Ohakune 1395 1389 1437 1320 1389 1293 1098 987 -29.2 109 150 (41) RurC_Lawrence 582 582 567 534 537 474 432 417 -28.4 182 233 (51) RurC_Burnham Military Camp 1518 1767 1656 1335 1467 1137 1206 1089 -28.3 107 141 (34) RurC_Frasertown 354 354 345 366 333 291 300 255 -28.0 232 269 (37) RurC_Wyndham 738 774 711 645 639 573 516 534 -27.6 156 200 (44) RurC_Roxburgh 717 708 687 681 741 618 612 522 -27.2 158 202 (44) RurC_Kerepehi 585 531 546 504 504 501 513 429 -26.7 181 227 (46) RurC_Waitati 699 354 384 504 531 495 501 513 -26.6 162 205 (43) Shannon 1692 1500 1632 1557 1446 1407 1371 1242 -26.6 99 132 (33) RurC_Manutuke 699 663 723 711 738 639 603 522 -25.3 161 203 (42) RurC_Pareora 573 546 516 492 501 465 450 429 -25.1 186 228 (42) Total these towns 37209 35652 34056 31476 30303 27213 25431 23097 … … … … These towns as % of Total NZ 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 … … … …

Slower growing/declining towns and rural centres: Sitting in between these extremes of growth and decline among New Zealand’s smaller towns and rural centres are the remaining 117 towns and centres which either grew by less than 100 per cent (72 towns), or declined by less than 25 per cent (45 towns) – included at Appendix B. By and large, the growing towns/centres in this group are characterised by similar features to those noted for larger growing towns/centres in Tables 4 and 5 above: proximity to a large city, beach or lake, or are a major tourist centre; they also include a number of rural townships arguably gaining population with changes in agricultural land-use over the late 1990s and early 2000s, namely changes from forestry, sheep and beef to dairying. Most small and ‘moderately’ declining towns/centres, on the other hand, have similar characteristics to

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those on Table 5: a predominance of forestry, mining and hydro towns, and proximity to previously important railway stations and military camps; they also include towns somewhat more remote from main centres. This is not to say that they do not also have among them beach and life-style attractions, such as Opunake (declining by 18 per cent and falling from #103 to #128) and Tokomaru Bay (declining by 22 per cent and falling from #202 to #238), but rather that they are typically more remote than their growing counterparts.

Demographic drivers of change: Although population change is popularly equated with migration, two other factors play a large and often unacknowledged role: natural increase or decrease, and ageing-in-place whereby larger cohorts replace smaller ones, or vice-versa (known as population ‘momentum’). Here our cohort component projection methodology accounts for underlying changes in cohort size, so momentum is not examined as a separate item. Instead we turn first and briefly to the contribution of natural increase, estimated, as outlined above, by applying age-specific birth rates to the survived and migrated female reproductive age population at each five-year observation. We then turn to the difference in number between the survived and reproduced cohorts from one census year (the ‘expected’ population at time t+5) and the estimated population (by age and sex) at the subsequent census, their sum providing an approximation of net migration. Finally we present the combined information (contribution of natural increase and net migration) in terms of correlations with changes in size, structural ageing, and each other. The data cover all 143 towns and 133 rural centres.

Contribution to change by natural increase: The percentage of New Zealand’s towns and rural centres experiencing natural increase grew slightly across the period 1976-2013, from 82.2 to 85.9 per cent (Table 6), with declining jurisdictions more likely than their growing counterparts to experience natural increase across the earlier part of the period, and vice-versa towards the end (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres Experiencing Natural Increase, 1976-2013, by Whether Growing or Declining

100 92.3 95 90.3 90 85.6 82.1 85 84.7 81.5 80 78.1

percentage 75

70

65

60 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Growing Towns and Rural Centres Declining Towns and Rural Centres

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Table 6 shows that the overall increase in natural increase was experienced by rural centres only, with that increase greater for growing than declining rural centres. Both growing and declining towns experienced a small reduction in the proportions gaining from natural increase, with that decline greater for growing towns. At the same time, a slightly greater proportion of towns than rural centres experienced natural increase at all but one observation (1991-96).

For declining towns and rural centres the proportion experiencing natural increase also peaked earlier than for growing jurisdictions, around 1991 and 1996 respectively (Figure 5)—indicating the onset of natural decrease for the remaining jurisdictions.

Table 6: Number and Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres Experiencing Natural Increase, 1976- 2013 by Whether Growing or Declining 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 Change Number Experiencing Natural Increase 1976-2013 Towns Growing Towns 87 85 76 79 58 86 78 … Declining Towns 39 39 52 46 75 42 46 … Zero Growth 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 … Total Towns, Natural Increase 126 125 130 126 133 128 124 …

Rural Centres Growing Rural Centres 51 64 57 70 44 47 44 … Declining Rural Centres 49 45 58 50 72 58 67 … Zero Growth 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 … Total Rural Centres, Natural Increase 101 110 115 120 116 106 113 …

Total Growing Towns and Rural Centres 138 149 133 149 102 133 122 … Declining Towns and Rural Centres 88 84 110 96 147 100 113 … Zero Growth 1 2 2 1 0 1 2 … Total Towns/Rural Centres, Natural Increase 227 235 245 246 249 234 237 …

Percentage Experiencing Natural Increase Towns Growing Towns 87.0 85.0 87.4 85.9 92.1 90.5 84.8 (2.5) Declining Towns 90.7 90.7 92.9 90.2 93.8 87.5 90.2 (0.6) Zero Growth 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 … Total Towns (143), Natural Increase 88.1 87.4 90.9 88.1 93.0 89.5 86.7 (1.6)

Rural Centres Growing Rural Centres 75.0 82.1 86.4 87.5 88.0 88.7 84.6 12.8 Declining Rural Centres 75.4 81.8 86.6 94.3 86.7 72.5 82.7 9.7 Zero Growth 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 100.0 Total Rural Centres (133), Natural Increase 75.9 82.7 86.5 90.2 87.2 79.7 85.0 11.9

Total Growing Towns and Rural Centres 82.1 83.7 86.9 86.6 90.3 89.9 84.7 3.1 Declining Towns and Rural Centres 81.5 85.7 89.4 92.3 90.2 78.1 85.6 5.1 Zero Growth 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 101.4 Total Towns/Rural Centres (276), Natural Increase 82.2 85.1 88.8 89.1 90.2 84.8 85.9 4.4

The overall picture that emerges is of towns losing their natural increase at a faster rate than rural centres, and growing towns more so than declining towns. In 2013, 19 towns were experiencing natural decrease, up from 17 in 1976, while for rural centres the number declined from 32 to 20. This spatial difference relates to changing age structural dynamics. Although people living in New

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Zealand’s towns are, on average, younger than those living in rural centres (Appendices C and D respectively), this is only true to the extent that the difference is driven by a few very large and very youthful cities. New Zealand’s towns are simultaneously somewhat more likely than its rural centres to have proportions aged 65+ years in excess of 20 per cent (in 2013, 41 per cent of towns compared with 29 per cent of rural centres), and this explains the former’s more rapid shift to natural decrease.

Table 6 also shows that jurisdictions experiencing both zero growth and natural increase were very few in number irrespective of town or rural centre status. These sparse data cannot be considered definitive of any trends, but it is worth noting that the zero growth currently being experienced by them is mostly not the type theorised of in demographic transition theory, which is driven by the end of natural increase and the stabilising of the age structure. That is, the zero growth in these data is the result of natural increase offset by net migration loss of the same magnitude. The underlying data indicate that zero growth has, thus far, been a stage through which New Zealand’s towns and rural centres have fleetingly passed, mostly on their way to continued migration-driven decline.

These findings are further illustrated in Figure 6, which indicates that for most of the 1976-2013 period, higher proportions of declining than growing towns experienced natural increase (and thus vice-versa—higher proportions of growing towns experienced natural decrease). The only exception was between 2001 and 2006. There was essentially no difference between growing and declining rural centres until 1991. Between 1991 and 1996 declining rural centres were, like declining towns, more likely to experience natural increase, while between 2001 and 2006 for towns, and since 2001 for rural centres, the opposite was the case.

Figure 6: Percentage of Growing and Declining Towns and Rural Centres Experiencing Natural Increase, 1976-2013

Source: Authors (2016)/Statistics New Zealand

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Contribution to change by net migration: Net migration gain is, as would be expected, strongly associated with growing towns and rural centres, while declining jurisdictions are substantially more likely to experience net migration loss (Figures 7 and 8, and Table 7). In the period 1991-96, all declining towns and rural centres experienced net migration loss, and also, by implication, natural decrease, discussed further below.

At the same time, not all growing jurisdictions experienced net migration gain, or at least, not in every period, the proportion growing from migration falling from just on 74.4 per cent 1976-81 to 68.8 per cent 2006-13. Notably, these proportions are also lower than those growing from natural increase; in the ‘missing’ cases, the cause of growth was, by implication, natural increase. For example, between 2006 and 2013, 144 towns and rural centres grew (52.2 per cent) (Table 1 and Appendix A), but only 99 experienced net migration gain (Table 7). This indicates that 45 growing towns and rural centres experienced net migration loss and grew from natural increase alone.

Again, towns and rural centres experiencing both zero growth and net migration gain are too few in number to discuss in detail, but it is noted that they pertain only to the early part of the period. The combination of zero growth and net migration gain does, however, imply that natural decrease was present in the same magnitude as the migration gain, in order to result in zero growth.

Figure 7: Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres Experiencing Net Migration Gain, 1976-2013, by Whether Growing or Declining

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Table 7: Number and Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres Experiencing Net Migration Gain, 1976-2013 by Whether Growing or Declining 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 Change Number Experiencing Net Migration Gain 1976-2013 Towns Growing Towns 68 72 64 70 53 72 67 … Declining Towns 1 1 0 0 1 2 4 … Zero Growth 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 Total Towns, Net Migration Gain 71 73 65 70 54 74 71 …

Rural Centres Growing Rural Centres 57 63 54 56 34 38 32 … Declining Rural Centres 8 0 3 0 1 8 5 … Zero Growth 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Total Rural Centres, Net Migration Gain 66 64 57 56 35 46 37 …

Total Growing Towns and Rural Centres 125 135 118 126 87 110 99 … Declining Towns and Rural Centres 9 1 3 0 2 10 9 … Zero Growth 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 Total Towns/Rural Centres, Net Migration Gain 137 137 122 126 89 120 108 …

Percentage Experiencing Net Migration Gain Towns Growing Towns 68.0 72.0 73.6 76.1 84.1 75.8 72.8 7.1 Declining Towns 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.2 7.8 237.3 Zero Growth 1.4 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (100.0) Total Towns (143), Net Migration Gain 49.7 51.0 45.5 49.0 37.8 51.7 49.7 0.0

Rural Centres Growing Rural Centres 83.8 80.8 81.8 70.0 68.0 71.7 61.5 (26.6) Declining Rural Centres 12.3 0.0 4.5 0.0 1.2 10.0 6.2 (49.8) Zero Growth 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (100.0) Total Rural Centres (133), Net Migration Gain 49.6 48.1 42.9 42.1 26.3 34.6 27.8 (43.9)

Total Growing Towns and Rural Centres 74.4 75.8 77.1 73.3 77.0 74.3 68.8 (7.6) Declining Towns and Rural Centres 8.7 1.1 2.5 0.0 1.2 7.9 6.9 (20.0) Zero Growth 75.0 33.3 33.3 0.0 … 0.0 0.0 (100.0) Total Towns/Rural Centres (276), Net Migration Gain 49.6 49.6 44.2 45.7 32.2 43.5 39.1 (21.2)

Overall, the proportion of growing towns experiencing net migration gain grew over the period, from 68.0 per cent between 1976 and 1981 to 72.8 per cent between 2006 and 2013, although the latter was lower than its peak in the 1996-01 period (84.1 per cent). Declining towns also saw an overall increase in gain from net migration, from 2.3 per cent 1976-81 to 7.8 per cent 2006-13, although across the 1986-91 and 1991-96 periods, none experienced net migration gain.

By contrast, both growing and declining rural centres saw a substantial decrease in the likelihood of net migration gain, or in other words, increasing percentages experienced net migration loss. Again, for growing rural centres, natural increase explains the difference; between 2006 and 2013, 52 rural centres grew (39.1 per cent, Table 1 and Appendix A). Table 7 shows that just 32 grew from net migration gain, implying that 20 grew from natural increase alone.

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Figure 8: Percentage of Growing and Declining Towns and Rural Centres Experiencing Net Migration Gain, 1976-2013

Towns Rural Centres 100.0 100.0 84.1 90.0 90.0 83.8 81.8 80.0 68.0 80.0 70.0 72.8 70.0 60.0 60.0 61.5 50.0 50.0 40.0 40.0 percentage 30.0 percentage 30.0 20.0 20.0 12.3 10.0 10.0 2.3 0.0 7.8 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Growing Towns Declining Towns Growing Rural Centres Declining Rural Centres

Combined effects: Turning to these combined effects, Table 8 and Figure 9 illustrate with reference to three types of growth and three of decline, along with zero growth (Jackson and Cameron 2016). The overarching picture is that growth from both components in combination (natural increase plus net migration gain) is diminishing, while decline from natural increase failing to offset net migration loss (the ‘old’ form of decline) is increasing—with the latter becoming the single largest component of change since 1996, although, as above, the trends are by no means monotonic. Growth from natural increase offsetting net migration loss has remained relatively stable at around 14-16 per cent with the exception of the period 1996-01, when it fell to 9 per cent. Growth from net migration gain offsetting natural decrease affects somewhat fewer jurisdictions and has diminished overall, while decline from net migration gain failing to offset natural decrease affects fewer again, and ended the period the same as it began, pertaining to just three per cent of jurisdictions. Decline from both negative components—the ‘new’ form of decline, is present at all observations, but has played a relatively small role, albeit slightly larger for the decade 1996-2006. Zero growth was the smallest outcome at all but two observations.

Table 8: Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres (Combined) by Components of Growth, 1976-2013 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 Growth Growth from both positive components 34.4 38.4 35.5 37.3 27.5 34.4 27.9 Natural Increase offsets Net Migration Loss 15.6 15.6 12.7 16.7 9.4 13.8 16.3 Net Migration Gain offsets Natural Decrease 10.9 10.5 7.2 8.3 4.0 5.4 8.0 Decline Net Migration Gain fails to offset Natural Decrease 3.3 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.7 3.6 3.3 Natural Increase fails to offset Net Migration Loss 31.9 30.4 39.9 34.8 53.3 36.2 40.9 Decline from both negative components 2.5 3.6 2.5 2.5 5.1 6.2 2.9 Zero Growth 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 Number 276 276 276 276 276 276 276

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Figure 9: Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres (Combined) by Components of Growth, 1976- 2013

100%

90%

80% 30.4 34.8 31.9 39.9 36.2 40.9 70% 53.3 60% 10.5 8.3 10.9 7.2 5.4 50% 8.0 15.6 16.7 12.7 13.8 percentage 40% 15.6 16.3 30% 9.4 20% 38.4 35.5 37.3 34.4 34.4 27.5 27.9 10%

0% 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Zero Growth Decline from both negative components Decline: Natural Increase fails to offset Net Migration Loss Decline: Net Migration Gain fails to offset Natural Decrease Growth: Net Migration Gain offsets Natural Decrease Growth: Natural Increase offsets Net Migration Loss Growth from both positive components

Disaggregating the data by town or rural centre jurisdiction reveals strong similarity in the trends (Figure 10 and Table 9). However rural centres have consistently been somewhat less likely than towns to experience growth from both natural increase and net migration gain, and somewhat more likely to have seen decline from natural increase failing to offset net migration loss, with the latter pertaining to half of rural centres across the period 2006-13. At the same time the substantial increase in this element experienced across the 1996-01 period (Figure 9) is equally present for both towns and rural centres, with barely two percentage points difference at that observation (52.4 and 54.1 per cent respectively).

Growth from net migration gain offsetting natural decrease, and from natural increase offsetting net migration loss, also evidence similar trends for both jurisdictions. The former is as yet a relatively minor contributor to growth in both town and rural centre cases, due in part to the relatively small number of jurisdictions experiencing natural decrease. The latter (growth from natural increase offsetting net migration loss) is larger for towns but has diminished overall (from 22.4 per cent 1976- 81 to 17.5 per cent 2006-13), while increasing for rural centres (from 8.3 to 15.0 per cent).

Decline caused by net migration gain failing to offset natural decrease is, again, a relatively minor component, but greater for the rural centres. Decline from both negative components (natural decrease and net migration loss) has also played a small role, but somewhat larger for rural centres.

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As noted above, zero growth is also a minor player, more prevalent for rural centres than towns, but seemingly a transitional status, as opposed to an ‘end point’ as indicated by transition theory.

Figure 10: Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres by Components of Growth and Town and Rural Jurisdiction, 1976-2013

Towns

100%

90% 27.3 27.3 29.4 32.2 80% 36.4 32.2 70% 52.4 9.1 10.5 6.3 60% 9.1 9.8 7.7 50% 19.6 16.1 15.4 22.4 16.1 17.5

percentage 40% 7.0 30%

20% 39.9 39.9 44.1 38.5 37.1 33.6 37.1 10%

0% 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Zero Growth Decline from both negative components Decline: Natural Increase fails to offset Net Migration Loss Decline: Net Migration Gain fails to offset Natural Decrease Growth: Net Migration Gain offsets Natural Decrease Growth: Natural Increase offsets Net Migration Loss Growth from both positive components

Rural Centres

100%

90%

80% 33.8 37.6 36.8 43.6 70% 43.6 50.4 54.1 60% 7.5 10.5 50% 6.8 12.8 11.3 18.0

percentage 40% 9.0 4.5 6.0 30% 8.3 11.3 12.0 15.0 20% 36.8 33.8 34.6 30.1 24.1 10% 21.1 18.0 0% 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Zero Growth Decline from both negative components Decline: Natural Increase fails to offset Net Migration Loss Decline: Net Migration Gain fails to offset Natural Decrease Growth: Net Migration Gain offsets Natural Decrease Growth: Natural Increase offsets Net Migration Loss Growth from both positive components

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Table 9: Percentage of Towns and Rural Centres by Components of Growth and Town and Rural Jurisdiction, 1976-2013 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 Towns Growth Growth from both positive components 38.5 39.9 37.1 39.9 33.6 44.1 37.1 Natural Increase offsets Net Migration Loss 22.4 19.6 16.1 15.4 7.0 16.1 17.5 Net Migration Gain offsets Natural Decrease 9.1 10.5 7.7 9.1 3.5 6.3 9.8 Decline Net Migration Gain fails to offset Natural Decrease 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 2.8 Natural Increase fails to offset Net Migration Loss 27.3 27.3 36.4 32.2 52.4 29.4 32.2 Decline from both negative components 0.7 1.4 0.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.7 Zero Growth 1.4 0.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Number 143 143 143 143 143 143 143

Summary (Towns) Growth 69.9 69.9 60.8 64.3 44.1 66.4 64.3 Decline 28.7 29.4 37.1 35.0 55.9 33.6 35.7 (Natural Decline) 11.9 12.6 9.1 11.9 7.0 10.5 13.3

Rural Centres Growth Growth from both positive components 30.1 36.8 33.8 34.6 21.1 24.1 18.0 Natural Increase offsets Net Migration Loss 8.3 11.3 9.0 18.0 12.0 11.3 15.0 Net Migration Gain offsets Natural Decrease 12.8 10.5 6.8 7.5 4.5 4.5 6.0 Decline Net Migration Gain fails to offset Natural Decrease 6.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.8 6.0 3.8 Natural Increase fails to offset Net Migration Loss 36.8 33.8 43.6 37.6 54.1 43.6 50.4 Decline from both negative components 4.5 6.0 4.5 2.3 7.5 9.8 5.3 Zero Growth 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 Number 133 133 133 133 133 133 133

Summary (Rural Centres) Growth 51.1 58.6 49.6 60.2 37.6 39.8 39.1 Decline 47.4 39.8 50.4 39.8 62.4 59.4 59.4 (Natural Decline) 24.1 17.3 13.5 9.8 12.8 20.3 15.0

In sum, the trends are similar but differ in subtle ways that have important implications for future growth as structural ageing progresses. For example, net migration loss has always been a greater issue for the rural centres than the towns, but in the past much of it was concealed by natural increase, resulting in overall growth. With natural increase both projected to fall, and slightly more prevalent for towns, it will be increasingly difficult for rural centres to offset underlying net migration loss. Given that they are also seeing diminishing growth from the combined effect of both positive (natural increase and net migration gain) components, and greater percentages declining from the negative components in combination, rural centres will have increasingly limited ability to reverse the trends. This does not mean that many towns are not facing similar demographic challenges, as several of the larger and fastest growing towns have relatively old age structures and appear to be growing largely from retiree migration (and momentum, from larger cohorts replacing smaller ones), but rather, that their greater positive growth components will protect them for longer.

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In order to consider the relative strength of these relationships, we now apply the Pearson Correlation Coefficient ‘r’8 to them in various combinations (Figure 11 and Table 10). Following Johnson et al. (2015) we also incorporate three additional explanatory variables: percentage aged 65+ years, as an indicator of the extent of structural ageing (Appendices C and D); percentage of the female population aged 15-44 years, as an indicator of capacity for natural increase to sustain population growth (Appendices E and F); and the total fertility rate (TFR) as an indicator of its relationship with natural increase (see Appendices G and H). Unfortunately we do not have TFR data for more than three observations, and it is an approximation only, based on the TFR for the TA that each town or rural centre is located in; these data must thus be viewed with particular care. Also, rather than include Johnson et al’s geographic breakdown of metropolitan and non-metropolitan aggregations, we present our findings separately for towns and rural centres, as above. Methodologically it should be noted that each data point carries equal weight, irrespective of size. Relatedly, one rural centre9 growing by over 3,000 per cent at the final observation was deemed an outlier, substantially biasing the results, and was removed from the correlation analysis.

Correlations and explanatory variables: As indicated above, the correlation between net growth and net migration gain is both positive and very strong for both towns and rural centres, slightly stronger for the former than the latter but never below +0.92: thus, intuitively correctly, areas with higher net migration gain have higher growth (Figure 11 and Table 10)—and vice-versa. That is, in the case of declining towns and rural centres, the positive correlation is also reflecting that both net growth and net migration were negative.

The second-strongest positive relationship for both towns and rural centres, across all but one period for rural centres, is for natural increase and the percentage of females aged 15-44 years. As proposed by Johnston et al. (2015: 667), areas with the lowest proportion of women at these ages have a higher experience of natural decrease, resulting in an inverse relationship. In our analysis, relatively few jurisdictions yet have natural decrease and we have a strong positive relationship because it is showing that towns and rural centres with the highest proportions are experiencing the highest natural increase, and vice-versa. Our findings thus concur with Johnson et al., that the lower the proportion of women in their main childbearing ages, the more difficult it is for them to sustain the natural increase required to offset migration loss.

8 The Pearson product moment correlation coefficient 'r' measures the linear strength of the relationship between two arrays of data, with +1.00 meaning that each item moved in exactly the same direction at the same rate of change (whether positively or negatively), and -1.00 meaning that each item moved in the opposite direction. 9 Rural Centre Pegasus grew from 33 to 1,050 between 2006 and 2013.

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Notably, these relationships are substantially stronger than those between natural increase and the TFR, for both towns and rural centres—albeit there are only three observations on which to deliberate. While also positive, suggesting that the higher the TFR, the higher the natural increase (and vice versa), the relatively weak values indicate that there is very little relationship between the two, and indicates that it is net migration loss (implicitly of reproductive age people) and/or increasing numbers at older ages, rather than very low fertility, that is presently associated with New Zealand’s current shift to natural decrease.

Figure 11: Pearson Correlation Coefficients for Selected Combinations of Variables, 1976-2013 by Town and Rural Centre Jurisdiction

Towns

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Pearson 'r' Pearson -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Net Change and Net Migration Net Change and Natural Increase Net Change and % 65+ Years Natural Increase and Net Migration Natural Increase and % F 15-44 Years Natural Increase and TFR Natural Increase and % 65+ Years Net Migration and % 65+ Years

Rural Centres

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Pearson 'r' Pearson -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13

Net Change and Net Migration Net Change and Natural Increase Net Change and % 65+ Years Natural Increase and Net Migration Natural Increase and % F 15-44 Years Natural Increase and TFR Natural Increase and % 65+ Years Net Migration and % 65+ Years

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Table 10: Pearson Correlation Coefficients for Selected Combinations of Variables, 1976-2013 by Town and Rural Centre Jurisdiction

1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 Towns Net Change and Net Migration 0.9760 0.9891 0.9787 0.9795 0.9817 0.9804 0.9692 Net Change and Natural Increase -0.1990 -0.3424 -0.5188 -0.2595 -0.0862 0.0230 -0.1174 Net Change and % 65+ Years 0.1869 0.4111 0.4681 0.1627 0.0207 -0.0989 0.0594 Natural Increase and Net Migration -0.4074 -0.4771 -0.6831 -0.4486 -0.2746 -0.1744 -0.3583 Natural Increase and % F 15-44 Years 0.7080 0.6711 0.6698 0.7649 0.7720 0.8269 0.8270 Natural Increase and TFR … … … … 0.2612 0.0992 0.2111 Natural Increase and % 65+ Years -0.8279 -0.8279 -0.8298 -0.8806 -0.8981 -0.9266 -0.9305 Net Migration and % 65+ Years 0.3579 0.5144 0.5990 0.3341 0.1919 0.0852 0.2865

Rural Centres Net Change and Net Migration 0.9475 0.9724 0.9657 0.9593 0.9510 0.9759 0.9290 Net Change and Natural Increase 0.1876 -0.0557 -0.0120 0.1614 0.1967 0.1891 -0.0445 Net Change and % 65+ Years 0.1203 0.3374 0.3429 0.1243 0.0631 -0.0501 -0.0124 Natural Increase and Net Migration -0.1365 -0.2870 -0.2712 -0.1239 -0.1160 -0.0296 -0.4110 Natural Increase and % F 15-44 Years 0.4412 0.6153 0.4286 0.6800 0.6220 0.5829 0.7672 Natural Increase and TFR … … … … 0.1308 0.1892 0.2138 Natural Increase and % 65+ Years -0.5097 -0.5490 -0.6437 -0.7044 -0.6403 -0.6738 -0.6729 Net Migration and % 65+ Years 0.2873 0.4519 0.4972 0.3266 0.2658 0.0986 0.2379 * Pearson's 'r' measures the linear strength of a relationship between two arrays of data, with +1.00 meaning that each item moved in exactly the same direction at the same rate of change, and -1.00 meaning that each item moved in the opposite direction

Also showing generally positive but weak relationships for both towns and rural centres are both net migration and percentage aged 65+ years, and net change and percentage aged 65+ years. In both cases the relationships strengthen around 1986-91, but then reduce and are virtually non-existent from the mid-1990s. These correlations indicate that, at this point, there is minimal relationship between the size of the 65+ year population of an area and its overall growth, although migration- related movements of those aged 65+ years may have contributed to net growth in the early part of the period.

Seemingly a mirror image of those trends, the relationship between net change and natural increase is either weakly or moderately negative (for towns) or fluctuates between weakly positive and negative (for rural centres). The strongest negative values (e.g. towns between 1986 and 1991) indicate that the higher the net growth, the lower the natural increase, and vice versa. In effect the underlying data suggest it was the latter, with relatively low levels of net growth and relatively high levels of natural increase occurring across that period. Closely tracking these trends, but with a slightly stronger negative relationship for both towns and rural centres, is the relationship between natural increase and net migration: the higher the net migration, the lower the natural increase, and vice-versa. Again this is strongest for towns around the 1986-91 period, and for rural centres across the 1980s, and again is largely explained by low levels of net migration and relatively high natural increase at the time.

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By contrast with the generally positive but relatively weak relationships between the percentage aged 65+ years, and both net migration, and net change, the importance of the relative size of the older population is seen in the relationship between percentage 65+ years and natural increase. At all observations this relationship is strongly or moderately negative, and more so for towns than rural centres. Overall this trend is indicating that the higher the percentage aged 65+ years, the lower the natural increase, as was similarly found for US and European counties by Johnson et al. (2015: 665-666). That this relationship is somewhat stronger for New Zealand’s towns than rural centres appears to reflect the earlier finding that many towns have relatively old age structures, with proportions at older ages presumably increasing the number of deaths. At the same time, New Zealand’s urban fertility rates have historically been lower than rural rates (Pool et al. 2004; Pool, et al. 2005; Pool, Dharmalingham and Sceats 2007). While a greater proportion of towns than rural centres are experiencing natural increase (refer Table 6 above), that proportion is falling at a faster rate than for rural centres.

Summary and Discussion

In this paper we have generated experimental back-projections of population change for 143 New Zealand towns and 133 rural centres, for the period 1976-2013. In the process we have produced previously unavailable patterns and trends in the long-term components of change in the form of natural increase and net migration. Potential users of these data should refer back to the caveats given in the introduction concerning the development of these data for research purposes. The data approximate the 2013 geographic boundaries used by Statistics New Zealand for the entire period based on ‘user derived correspondence’, and have been extracted by using the technique of indirect standardisation; population numbers may thus differ slightly to those held in historical records, but we consider them robust for comparison between jurisdictions.

We find that the majority of New Zealand’s towns grew across the period 1976-2013, although this did not occur between 1996 and 2001 when New Zealand experienced a period of net international migration loss, and from 1981 was not the case for rural centres. There is an overall decline to the trend for both jurisdictions, with just on 70 per cent of towns and 51 per cent of rural centres experiencing growth in the 1976-81 period, falling to 64 and 39 per cent respectively between 2006 and 2013 (noting that the latter covers a seven year period).

Seeking to compare these findings with those of Grimes and Tarrant (2013) for 60 urban areas for the period 1926-2006, we grouped the largest towns into ten clusters according to size in 1976. In total these accounted for around 82 per cent of the New Zealand population at each of the eight census observations. Although we begin our analysis at a later date (1976 compared with 1926 for

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Grimes and Tarrant) we find the same generally clustered pattern of growth and decline for towns and rural centres, each group having just one or two ‘leader’ towns showing runaway growth.

We go further in our analysis, to ask what demographic drivers (natural increase and net migration, in varying combinations) have contributed to those trends. Although a few of the leader towns were found to have experienced either natural decrease or net migration loss at one or other observation (across eight observations), for the great majority their extraordinary growth reflects constant positive contributions from natural increase and net migration, with no incidence of net decline. However a surprising finding was that with the exception of the four Auckland Zones (North, Central, West, and South) and Pukekohe, the fastest growing towns in each group have somewhat older age structures than the average, indicating the presence of substantial retiree migration (and/or ageing- in-place). This was the case for Tauranga, Nelson, Kapiti, Cambridge, Motueka, Te Puke and Waiuku, the fastest growing towns of Groups 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10. The findings have implications for the continued rapid growth of these towns, as they are likely to see the onset natural decrease in the near future, already evidenced for two (Kapiti and Motueka).

We do not report in detail on the data for all towns and rural centres with populations smaller than 3,000 people in 1976. Instead we undertook a brief analysis of those that have either more than doubled since 1976, or declined by more than 25 per cent. We find that 40 have more than doubled in size, with 21 growing by over 200 per cent, and four by over 500 per cent. All are either adjacent to a large city, beach or lake, or are a major tourist centres. In 1976 these jurisdictions accounted for just 1.0 per cent of New Zealand’s population, and in 2013, for 2.5 per cent.

At the other end of the scale, 41 towns and rural centres each declined by more than 25 per cent. In 1976 they accounted for 1.2 per cent of New Zealand’s population, and in 2013, for just 0.5 per cent. Notable among this group are forestry, mining and hydro towns and rural centres, and towns/centres adjacent to previously important railway stations and military camps.

Sitting in between these extremes are the remaining 117 towns and centres which either grew by less than 100 per cent (72 towns), or declined by less than 25 per cent (45 towns). By and large, the growing towns/centres in this group are characterised by similar features to those of larger growing towns/centres, while most small and moderately declining towns/centres have similar characteristics to the extreme declining towns and centres. Among them there are jurisdictions with lifestyle attractions, but most are more remote than their significantly growing or declining counterparts.

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Growing and declining towns and rural centres are characterised by similar demographic characteristics, but with different combinations having a greater or lesser role. Surprisingly, natural increase was slightly more prevalent across most of the 1976-2013 period for towns than it was for rural centres, although increased overall for rural centres and declined for towns. The decline was slightly greater for declining towns, and the increase slightly greater for growing rural centres. Declining towns and centres have historically had higher contributions from natural increase than their growing counterparts, but the evidence suggests this picture could be changing, with growing jurisdictions potentially more likely to grow from natural increase than their declining counterparts—a shift which would have implications for the ability of declining jurisdictions to offset net migration loss. However this trend may be mediated by the counter trend of hyper-ageing, where towns and rural centres that are currently growing from an influx of older people will lose their natural increase more rapidly than those growing from an influx of youth.

Net migration gain is, as might be expected, strongly associated with population growth, and net migration loss with population decline. At the same time, not all growing jurisdictions experienced net migration gain. For many, the cause of growth was natural increase, while the opposite was the case for a smaller number of declining jurisdictions, on the one hand experiencing net migration gain, but on the other, natural decrease which resulted overall in net decline.

These cross-cutting components of growth and decline showed that rural centres have consistently been somewhat less likely than towns to experience growth from both natural increase and net migration gain, and somewhat more likely to be seeing decline from natural increase failing to offset net migration loss (Burcher and Mai’s ‘old’ form of decline), with the latter affecting half of all rural centres at the end of the period. Reflecting the underlying trends in natural increase, growth from that component offsetting net migration loss has increased for rural centres, but declined for towns.

Growth from net migration gain offsetting natural decrease, and decline caused by net migration gain failing to offset natural decrease, are as yet relatively minor contributors to population change in both towns and rural centres, primarily due to the relatively small number of jurisdictions yet experiencing natural decrease. Similarly, decline from both natural decrease and net migration loss in combination (the ‘new’ form of decline), and zero growth, have each played a small role which has been greater for rural centres. At this stage, however, zero growth in subnational New Zealand is seemingly a transitional status, as opposed to the ‘end point’ indicated by transition theory.

Correlating these variables in different combinations using the Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient confirms that net migration gain and net growth go hand-in-hand, as do net migration loss and net decline. However almost as strong correlations were found between natural increase and structural

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ageing (as indicated by percentage aged 65+ years), and natural increase and the percentage of women aged 15-44 years; natural increase declining as both structural ageing increases and the proportion at key reproductive age declines. By contrast, at this stage in New Zealand, the total fertility rate has only a very weak relationship with natural increase or decrease.

Across the period 1976-2013 the largely invisible role of natural increase has thus been more closely related to the outcome of population growth or decline in New Zealand than either net migration or fertility rates per se. Migration-driven structural ageing, or, more aptly, age-selective migration, will thus almost certainly see continuing reductions in natural increase, particularly in larger towns where growth is disproportionately at retiree ages, and in declining rural centres where there is both net outmigration of younger people, especially women of reproductive age, and/or ageing-in-place. Migration gains of younger people to larger towns and cities also tends to be characterised by falling fertility rates (Pool et al. 2007). These trends will increasingly reduce the ability of natural increase to offset future net migration loss. In rural centres, the proportion aged 65+ years is on average greater than in the towns and is increasing at a faster rate, but rural birth rates have historically been higher. At the same time substantially more towns than rural centres are now experiencing hyper-aging, where the proportion aged 65+ years exceeds 20 per cent, hastening the end of natural increase.

Formally correlating the migration data for towns and rural centres generated by this project, by age, with data on natural and social amenity is expected to give further insight into which towns and rural centres are ‘at risk’ of growing or declining, and why (Brabyn and Jackson forthcoming). For now we can hypothesis that those characteristics that have been pushing and pulling migrants will continue to interact with age, and will in many cases further diminish natural increase.

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Appendix A: Number of Towns and Rural Centres growing or declining in size or experiencing zero growth between census years, 1976-2013

1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-13 Number Towns Growing 100 100 87 92 63 95 92 Declining 41 42 53 50 80 48 51 Zero Growth 2 1 3 1 0 0 0 Total 143 143 143 143 143 143 143

Rural Centres Growing 68 78 66 80 50 53 52 Declining 63 53 67 53 83 79 79 Zero Growth 2 2 0 0 0 1 2 Total 133 133 133 133 133 133 133

Total Growing 168 178 153 172 113 148 144 Declining 104 95 120 103 163 127 130 Zero Growth 4 3 3 1 0 1 2 Total 276 276 276 276 276 276 276

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Appendix B: Numbers, change (%) and rank (1976, 2013) for towns and rural centres with fewer than 3,000 people in 1976, ordered by size in 1976 (usually resident population count) Change 1976- Rank in Rank in 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 2013 (%) 1976 2013 Queenstown 2925 3042 4059 5145 7539 8565 10440 11502 293.2 79 38 Murupara 2913 3006 2595 2394 2205 1959 1839 1656 -43.2 80 115 Waiheke Island 2838 3081 4293 5430 6285 7137 7689 8238 190.3 81 44 Pahiatua 2787 2823 2868 2910 2721 2610 2562 2412 -13.5 82 94 Taihape 2784 2592 2490 2118 2007 1806 1788 1509 -45.8 83 120 Otorohanga 2673 2679 2748 2655 2655 2631 2589 2514 -5.9 84 92 Inglewood 2628 2862 3240 3204 3192 2946 3090 3243 23.4 85 86 Featherston 2517 2511 2520 2634 2418 2325 2343 2250 -10.6 86 96 Eltham 2421 2406 2421 2265 2004 2100 1983 1944 -19.7 87 103 Milton 2235 2262 2211 2088 2016 1917 1887 1926 -13.8 88 106 Moerewa 2100 2082 1929 1899 1695 1659 1536 1431 -31.9 89 125 Kerikeri 2082 2598 3096 3468 4197 4881 5856 6504 212.4 90 51 Geraldine 2055 2136 2121 2127 2232 2205 2244 2301 12.0 91 95 Patea 2028 1989 1608 1491 1401 1302 1143 1098 -45.9 92 140 Winton 2028 2085 2139 2127 2190 2100 2088 2211 9.0 93 97 Bulls 2007 1908 1776 1731 1863 1758 1659 1515 -24.5 94 119 Kaikoura 2004 2076 2070 2037 2217 2106 2172 1971 -1.6 95 101 Greytown 1938 1887 1896 2022 1962 2046 2064 2202 13.6 96 98 Waipawa 1869 1797 1917 1845 1917 1875 1923 1968 5.3 97 102 Wellsford 1695 1650 1638 1710 1650 1740 1671 1698 0.2 98 113 Shannon 1692 1500 1632 1557 1446 1407 1371 1242 -26.6 99 132 Riverton 1680 1773 1815 1845 1830 1653 1512 1431 -14.8 100 126 RurC_Mangakino 1662 1608 1608 1584 1500 1281 1020 744 -55.2 101 170 Edgecumbe 1629 1980 1881 1851 1764 1671 1626 1638 0.6 102 116 Opunake 1629 1776 1719 1650 1596 1497 1365 1335 -18.0 103 128 Kawakawa 1608 1569 1518 1485 1458 1401 1347 1221 -24.1 104 135 Warkworth 1602 1788 2052 2295 2475 2826 3270 3909 144.0 105 78 Woodville 1599 1656 1608 1650 1569 1479 1401 1401 -12.4 106 127 RurC_Burnham Military Camp 1518 1767 1656 1335 1467 1137 1206 1089 -28.3 107 141 Martinborough 1431 1371 1434 1560 1458 1356 1329 1473 2.9 108 123 Ohakune 1395 1389 1437 1320 1389 1293 1098 987 -29.2 109 150 Te Anau 1386 1545 1599 1500 1782 1854 1899 1911 37.9 110 107 Katikati Community 1374 1704 2016 2346 2661 2916 3579 4056 195.2 111 71 Whitianga 1365 1704 2094 2424 2994 3078 3765 4368 220.0 112 64 Waihi Beach 1362 1353 1566 1788 1914 1911 1776 1935 42.1 113 104 Raglan 1323 1416 1809 2316 2634 2667 2637 2736 106.8 114 90 Cromwell 1278 2310 3423 2709 2613 2667 3585 4146 224.4 115 69 Helensville 1266 1554 1581 1896 2079 2217 2532 2643 108.8 116 91 Reefton 1266 1200 1179 1089 1047 987 948 1026 -19.0 117 147 Lincoln 1257 1386 1914 1686 2367 2208 2835 3924 212.2 118 75 Raetihi 1236 1257 1323 1233 1167 1068 1035 1002 -18.9 119 149 Whangamata 1218 1521 2244 3174 3765 3963 3555 3474 185.2 120 84 RurC_Waverley 1197 1260 1152 1008 960 906 861 798 -33.3 121 161 Wanaka 1176 1260 1602 1851 2523 3330 5037 6474 450.5 122 53 RurC_Kaitangata 1107 1053 951 882 864 789 810 762 -31.2 123 166 Takaka 1089 1206 1185 1218 1224 1188 1152 1236 13.5 124 133 Paihia 1065 1128 1308 1428 1827 1839 1773 1719 61.4 125 111 Rolleston 1059 933 1107 1308 1467 2667 4953 9555 802.3 126 41 Darfield 1053 1158 1122 1164 1299 1404 1671 1935 83.8 127 105 Pleasant Point 990 1107 1119 1200 1221 1158 1173 1278 29.1 128 130 RurC_Manaia 969 1017 1032 1101 1089 951 927 960 -0.9 129 151 RurC_Ranfurly 966 990 972 906 846 732 711 663 -31.4 130 183 RurC_Tapanui 966 1068 972 819 885 846 747 726 -24.8 131 172 Oxford 954 963 1125 1353 1476 1581 1716 1905 99.7 132 108 Wakefield 951 996 1122 1245 1419 1497 1875 2106 121.5 133 99 RurC_Otautau 951 924 882 846 813 729 753 669 -29.7 134 182 RurC_Kaingaroa Forest 930 795 699 588 582 549 486 423 -54.5 135 231 RurC_Tuatapere 915 912 873 750 738 681 582 558 -39.0 136 194 RurC_Palmerston 900 900 840 882 906 807 804 795 -11.7 137 163 RurC_Fairlie 891 894 807 762 846 723 717 696 -21.9 138 176 Leeston 888 1041 1083 1170 1290 1275 1302 1506 69.6 139 121 Methven 888 945 930 1002 1095 1164 1401 1707 92.2 140 112 Waikouaiti 888 882 873 1008 1170 1095 1095 1122 26.4 141 138

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Appendix B (cont.): Numbers, change (%) and rank (1976, 2013) for towns and rural centres with fewer than 3,000 people in 1976, ordered by size in 1976 (usually resident population count) Change 1976- Rank in Rank in 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 2013 (%) 1976 2013 RurC_Riwaka 846 774 843 798 858 876 849 870 2.8 142 154 Coromandel 834 1062 1179 1323 1473 1437 1476 1503 80.2 143 122 RurC_Meremere 813 645 618 525 468 354 462 468 -42.4 144 214 Snells Beach 801 1173 2076 2739 3177 3648 3948 4239 429.2 145 67 RurC_Taneatua 798 921 921 879 879 750 792 786 -1.5 146 164 Te Kauwhata 777 852 969 969 1026 1095 1194 1473 89.6 147 124 RurC_Maungaturoto 777 819 897 900 846 750 834 753 -3.1 148 167 RurC_Wallacetown 777 699 711 687 681 627 591 663 -14.7 149 184 RurC_Tirau 771 693 723 744 750 726 729 693 -10.1 150 178 RurC_Ruatoria 768 864 894 852 858 840 753 750 -2.3 151 168 RurC_Makara-Ohariu 762 666 621 645 660 702 759 840 10.2 152 158 RurC_Te Puru-Thornton Bay 756 834 870 942 1014 954 942 846 11.9 153 157 RurC_Dobson 750 750 804 759 747 744 669 678 -9.6 154 180 RurC_Tolaga Bay 738 699 732 774 897 870 831 765 3.7 155 165 RurC_Wyndham 738 774 711 645 639 573 516 534 -27.6 156 200 RurC_Ohai 717 717 696 522 513 399 354 303 -57.7 157 254 RurC_Roxburgh 717 708 687 681 741 618 612 522 -27.2 158 202 Taipa Bay-Mangonui 708 876 1038 1266 1494 1587 1569 1662 134.7 159 114 Amberley 705 846 858 867 1023 1140 1302 1575 123.4 160 117 RurC_Manutuke 699 663 723 711 738 639 603 522 -25.3 161 203 RurC_Waitati 699 354 384 504 531 495 501 513 -26.6 162 205 RurC_Otematata 690 417 414 420 360 243 186 186 -73.0 163 275 RurC_Ahipara 687 687 762 921 924 1041 1122 1065 55.0 164 143 Rakaia 681 693 687 696 780 837 942 1110 63.0 165 139 Ngatea 669 828 885 975 1002 1074 1164 1245 86.1 166 131 RurC_Eketahuna 654 597 654 714 642 579 456 441 -32.6 167 222 Brightwater 651 858 933 1023 1242 1425 1791 1749 168.7 168 110 RurC_Murchison 651 648 633 582 582 555 498 489 -24.9 169 207 RurC_Te Karaka 636 567 567 582 600 552 543 480 -24.5 170 211 RurC_Russell 618 702 729 783 789 804 819 720 16.5 171 173 RurC_Hanmer Springs 615 612 639 531 582 681 732 840 36.6 172 159 RurC_Hunterville 615 573 510 507 453 507 441 429 -30.2 173 226 RurC_Te Teko 615 594 594 642 633 630 627 489 -20.5 174 208 Mapua 606 744 960 1041 1269 1617 1878 2013 232.2 175 100 Woodend 600 1005 1224 1260 1584 2247 2679 2751 358.5 176 89 RurC_Bombay 597 738 720 891 876 750 807 798 33.7 177 162 RurC_Maungatapere 597 708 753 684 924 1053 1278 1323 121.6 178 129 Ngunguru 594 636 984 1017 1266 1290 1425 1527 157.1 179 118 RurC_Edendale Community 591 591 603 579 567 570 513 552 -6.6 180 195 RurC_Kerepehi 585 531 546 504 504 501 513 429 -26.7 181 227 RurC_Lawrence 582 582 567 534 537 474 432 417 -28.4 182 233 RurC_Lumsden Community 582 591 546 501 504 450 411 405 -30.4 183 235 RurC_Waitoa 579 594 564 534 438 360 318 303 -47.7 184 255 RurC_Waharoa 576 576 633 645 555 534 507 465 -19.3 185 215 RurC_Pareora 573 546 516 492 501 465 450 429 -25.1 186 228 RurC_Piopio 567 534 501 507 486 471 468 396 -30.2 187 236 RurC_Reporoa 567 591 585 672 588 555 477 450 -20.6 188 218 RurC_Seddon 567 570 543 582 549 474 513 504 -11.1 189 206 RurC_Ohaeawai 564 624 615 609 678 726 711 717 27.1 190 174 RurC_Clyde 555 678 855 774 849 825 918 1011 82.2 191 148 RurC_Harihari 552 528 558 429 390 348 348 327 -40.8 192 250 RurC_Akaroa 546 585 597 606 642 576 567 624 14.3 193 186 RurC_Mamaku 537 480 537 645 606 693 726 690 28.5 194 179 RurC_Matata 537 528 582 624 618 666 642 645 20.1 195 185 RurC_Kaponga 534 423 420 384 393 351 372 303 -43.3 196 256 RurC_Nightcaps 534 462 471 426 396 339 309 294 -44.9 197 261 RurC_Southbridge 534 591 612 636 675 717 735 861 61.2 198 156 Tairua 531 639 933 1137 1440 1461 1266 1230 131.6 199 134 RurC_Waimana 525 582 534 600 660 654 615 576 9.7 200 192 RurC_Ruawai 522 558 522 495 471 453 426 432 -17.2 201 225 RurC_Tokomaru Bay 504 495 564 519 477 462 447 393 -22.0 202 238 RurC_Okaihau 495 603 588 597 642 690 717 696 40.6 203 177 RurC_Outram 495 534 576 594 636 609 642 708 43.0 204 175 RurC_Te Kopuru 492 522 522 495 495 480 453 465 -5.5 205 216 RurC_Takapau 480 477 564 597 582 582 513 522 8.8 206 204

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Appendix B (cont.): Numbers, change (%) and rank (1976, 2013) for towns and rural centres with fewer than 3,000 people in 1976, ordered by size in 1976 (usually resident population count) Change 1976- Rank in Rank in 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 2013 (%) 1976 2013 RurC_Ratana Community 477 456 462 429 441 426 366 327 -31.4 207 251 RurC_Owaka 474 450 411 429 402 363 327 303 -36.1 208 257 RurC_Cheviot 471 420 432 468 444 393 390 369 -21.7 209 243 RurC_Paengaroa 471 618 612 657 729 831 900 906 92.4 210 152 RurC_Maketu Community 462 681 732 864 987 999 1179 1047 126.6 211 145 RurC_Okato 456 489 489 486 495 519 531 561 23.0 212 193 RurC_Ohura 435 420 438 333 372 222 162 129 -70.3 213 276 RurC_Karamea 432 480 477 450 450 444 420 375 -13.2 214 240 RurC_Riversdale Community 432 429 408 378 366 363 393 375 -13.2 215 241 Arrowtown 420 447 738 900 1428 1692 2151 2445 482.1 216 93 RurC_Patutahi 411 396 366 351 351 360 375 345 -16.1 217 247 RurC_Clinton 408 468 411 387 345 318 291 285 -30.1 218 264 RurC_Halcombe 408 333 372 399 414 435 432 534 30.9 219 201 RurC_Culverden 405 477 441 423 399 396 420 423 4.4 220 232 RurC_Muriwai Beach 405 420 567 738 879 1077 1044 1131 179.3 221 137 RurC_Tuai 402 354 369 327 267 270 252 219 -45.5 222 272 RurC_Rongotea 399 495 549 582 639 612 591 594 48.9 223 190 RurC_Blackball 381 360 345 372 399 324 327 288 -24.4 224 263 RurC_Rahotu 381 357 339 342 312 300 252 252 -33.9 225 270 RurC_Kaiwaka 378 294 324 399 438 537 537 579 53.2 226 191 RurC_Awanui 372 339 312 345 351 369 351 336 -9.7 227 248 RurC_Nuhaka 372 357 393 339 327 327 294 258 -30.6 228 268 RurC_Dunsandel 363 339 318 312 387 402 429 471 29.8 229 212 RurC_Ross 360 336 360 339 375 315 291 297 -17.5 230 260 RurC_Sanson 360 408 465 516 519 495 495 537 49.2 231 198 RurC_Frasertown 354 354 345 366 333 291 300 255 -28.0 232 269 RurC_Otane 354 369 450 534 516 546 519 537 51.7 233 199 RurC_Stirling 354 327 339 315 321 297 309 303 -14.4 234 258 RurC_Taitapu 339 387 399 435 450 417 411 624 84.1 235 187 RurC_Urenui 339 333 414 408 414 417 429 429 26.5 236 229 RurC_Rawene 333 339 378 450 519 462 438 471 41.4 237 213 RurC_Sefton 330 417 408 438 489 501 582 624 89.1 238 188 RurC_Kaeo 327 378 396 495 525 495 495 456 39.4 239 217 RurC_Kurow 327 477 486 471 411 387 339 312 -4.6 240 252 RurC_Woodlands 327 333 339 303 297 279 255 261 -20.2 241 266 RurC_Hector-Ngakawau 318 330 318 306 357 300 231 219 -31.1 242 273 RurC_Karitane 318 360 348 399 444 399 348 360 13.2 243 245 RurC_Waikuku 318 360 447 588 726 825 858 900 183.0 244 153 RurC_Havelock 309 333 390 420 504 471 486 486 57.3 245 210 RurC_Warrington 309 294 345 372 408 399 426 450 45.6 246 219 RurC_Kawhia Community 303 360 399 465 645 507 387 336 10.9 247 249 RurC_Tapawera 300 432 423 390 408 384 405 396 32.0 248 237 RurC_Waiau 300 309 261 252 276 255 252 261 -13.0 249 267 RurC_Manapouri 288 288 306 255 216 240 306 231 -19.8 250 271 RurC_Tokomaru 288 303 468 561 591 549 516 549 90.6 251 196 RurC_Cust 267 348 429 453 363 399 429 447 67.4 252 220 RurC_Omapere and Opononi 267 279 318 429 510 597 477 414 55.1 253 234 RurC_Opua East 267 339 363 354 333 342 354 291 9.0 254 262 RurC_Te Horo 267 327 414 516 612 639 675 807 202.2 255 160 RurC_Hampden 261 252 294 318 309 303 300 300 14.9 256 259 RurC_Leigh 255 294 318 396 423 423 390 441 72.9 257 223 RurC_Kakanui 252 321 339 411 429 414 414 375 48.8 258 242 RurC_Haruru Falls 249 327 429 495 594 678 786 867 248.2 259 155 RurC_Franz Josef 240 195 249 213 288 354 429 441 83.8 260 224 RurC_Parakai Urban 240 303 477 600 735 798 858 1047 336.3 261 146 RurC_Egmont Village 225 354 459 492 495 468 483 597 165.3 262 189 RurC_Lake Tekapo 222 255 279 192 297 303 318 369 66.2 263 244 RurC_Pauanui Beach 207 252 393 582 645 699 744 750 262.3 264 169 RurC_Te Kaha 207 189 303 318 363 375 303 387 87.0 265 239 RurC_Island View-Pios Beach 192 249 321 441 567 609 561 543 182.8 266 197 RurC_Omarama 186 207 309 384 354 279 231 270 45.2 267 265 RurC_Fox Glacier 177 153 174 162 249 255 375 306 72.9 268 253 RurC_Himatangi Beach 177 216 339 468 528 540 450 429 142.4 269 230 Mangawhai Heads 162 252 435 543 699 720 852 1086 570.4 270 142 RurC_Athenree 147 186 270 396 504 516 612 675 359.2 271 181 RurC_Mt Cook 132 219 270 195 279 234 213 192 45.5 272 274 RurC_Pegasus 129 18 12 30 42 39 33 1050 714.0 273 144 RurC_Kaukapakapa 81 75 99 117 162 180 450 444 448.1 274 221 RurC_Kinloch 81 138 174 222 258 279 327 489 503.7 275 209 RurC_Mahurangi 72 81 159 150 168 204 282 354 391.7 276 246 Not Classified 4620 792 1749 654 1665 1095 828 690 -85.06 … … Rural (Incl.some Off Shore Is.) 398430 386661 405171 410901 443412 451320 481617 513963 29.0 … … Total New Zealand 3103266 3143307 3263286 3373929 3618303 3737277 4027947 4242051 36.7 … …

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Appendix C: Percentage aged 65+ years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Towns

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Alexandra 11.6 14.2 14.3 18.3 21.0 23.6 23.1 27.1 Amberley 8.9 9.9 14.9 19.8 22.7 28.1 28.5 32.1 Arrowtown 10.4 14.8 9.8 12.8 11.3 11.4 11.4 12.0 Ashburton 12.4 14.3 16.1 18.4 20.4 21.3 21.2 21.5 Balclutha 8.3 10.7 12.8 14.3 17.2 17.7 19.2 22.4 Blenheim 10.4 11.9 12.7 14.6 15.5 16.7 17.1 20.3 Bluff 5.9 6.8 7.7 8.6 10.7 13.0 14.6 19.0 Brightwater 6.9 4.9 7.1 6.5 7.5 8.6 8.7 13.0 Bulls 6.1 6.9 6.9 9.4 10.8 13.8 14.1 17.3 Cambridge Zone 11.2 12.5 13.0 14.0 15.0 15.5 17.1 18.1 Carterton 11.2 12.3 13.9 15.6 17.7 18.7 19.4 23.5 Central Auckland Zone 12.6 13.9 13.7 12.9 11.3 10.2 9.5 10.4 Christchurch 10.2 11.5 12.4 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.5 15.0 Coromandel 16.7 15.8 14.5 16.6 16.9 16.9 17.9 23.2 Cromwell 12.1 7.0 5.2 8.2 12.8 16.4 14.0 17.5 Dannevirke 15.0 14.7 15.1 14.9 16.6 17.6 18.4 21.5 Darfield 8.0 9.8 11.5 16.0 18.6 20.0 19.1 21.8 Dargaville 11.5 12.3 13.4 15.4 17.5 18.4 20.6 24.8 Dunedin 11.0 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.5 14.9 Edgecumbe 3.5 3.8 6.5 7.8 10.1 11.5 12.3 13.5 Eltham 10.3 10.1 9.9 11.0 13.3 13.0 14.1 16.1 Featherstone 6.9 8.0 8.4 9.6 12.0 13.3 14.1 18.1 Feilding 11.2 12.7 13.5 14.3 14.5 15.4 16.7 18.8 Foxton Community 18.6 19.8 19.2 19.0 20.5 21.8 22.0 25.7 Geraldine 18.5 21.5 21.7 23.3 24.2 25.7 26.0 28.5 Gisborne 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.4 14.9 Gore 10.6 11.3 12.6 14.1 15.8 17.3 19.2 21.4 Greymouth 10.0 11.1 11.5 12.9 12.8 14.1 15.2 18.2 Greytown 12.6 15.1 17.4 19.2 23.2 22.5 24.1 27.6 Hamilton Zone 6.7 7.8 8.5 9.3 9.5 9.8 9.9 11.4 Hastings Zone 9.9 10.6 11.0 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.6 16.1 Hawera 11.2 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 15.1 16.0 17.3 Helensville 7.8 8.7 11.8 11.1 11.4 10.8 12.1 14.4 Hokitika 11.1 12.5 12.9 14.5 14.0 15.5 16.7 19.4 Huntly 7.6 8.5 8.9 11.0 12.3 13.1 13.6 14.5 Inglewood 9.9 10.6 10.3 12.6 14.4 16.8 18.1 17.6 Invercargill 9.0 9.9 10.4 11.5 12.8 14.1 14.7 16.1 Kaikohe 6.2 7.9 9.2 8.9 9.9 9.9 10.8 12.5 Kaikoura 11.7 12.1 13.7 16.0 16.6 18.1 17.8 23.5 Kaitaia 8.0 9.8 10.7 12.8 13.8 15.4 16.0 18.2 Kapiti 15.3 18.4 19.9 20.3 22.2 23.3 24.4 26.0 Katikati Community 14.8 14.2 16.6 19.9 23.5 28.0 33.0 34.3 Kawakawa 5.1 4.6 6.9 8.1 9.2 8.4 9.2 12.3 Kawerau 1.4 1.7 2.7 3.7 6.2 9.2 12.5 17.7 Kerikeri 9.7 12.4 12.8 15.1 17.5 19.8 20.4 24.2 Leeston 10.5 12.2 15.2 16.5 16.8 16.4 16.3 18.2 Levin 13.9 15.1 15.9 17.4 19.0 20.4 22.5 25.7 Lincoln 4.5 6.3 7.1 10.9 8.8 10.1 11.1 11.7 Lower Hutt Zone 8.5 9.7 10.3 10.3 10.6 10.5 10.9 12.8 Mangawhai Heads 23.6 26.7 18.2 24.7 30.0 28.1 25.2 34.3 Mapua 16.9 14.2 12.5 14.1 12.6 12.3 16.4 20.4 Martinborough 12.2 14.3 14.0 14.5 17.2 16.8 19.6 21.3 Marton 9.9 11.7 12.8 14.3 15.9 18.0 19.9 22.5 Masterton 9.9 10.9 12.1 13.5 15.4 16.7 18.2 20.0 Matamata 11.5 14.0 15.1 17.7 20.4 21.4 24.7 26.5 (cont.)

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Appendix C (cont.) Percentage aged 65+ years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Towns

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Methven 9.2 8.5 9.1 12.7 13.1 14.2 14.3 14.7 Milton 12.0 12.7 14.0 16.0 16.6 17.7 18.3 19.6 Moerewa 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.7 5.7 5.8 7.2 11.6 Morrinsville 11.3 12.4 14.0 15.0 15.6 16.2 18.6 19.6 Motueka 12.2 13.3 14.7 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.3 24.3 Murupara 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 3.8 5.1 7.3 9.6 Napier Zone 10.0 11.1 12.1 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.5 18.6 Nelson 11.5 12.7 13.6 14.7 14.6 14.7 15.0 18.1 New Plymouth 11.1 12.7 12.6 13.9 14.6 15.9 16.3 17.8 Ngatea 5.4 6.6 9.5 12.4 16.6 18.8 23.0 27.1 Ngunguru 11.4 9.5 9.5 13.9 18.0 20.1 22.0 23.5 Northern Auckland Zone 9.2 10.6 11.8 12.4 12.5 12.1 12.1 14.1 Oamaru 15.2 16.0 17.3 19.0 20.3 22.9 23.6 25.0 Ohakune 4.9 5.6 5.3 5.2 6.5 7.0 8.5 14.6 Opotiki 9.8 10.7 12.3 12.4 13.7 13.8 14.3 16.1 Opunake 10.5 9.5 11.2 13.4 15.9 18.0 19.1 21.3 Otaki 18.4 18.7 21.9 21.3 22.7 22.9 22.9 25.4 Otorohanga 9.6 11.2 12.4 14.3 15.1 15.3 17.0 18.6 Oxford 13.2 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.4 18.4 19.3 22.9 Paeroa 10.3 11.9 11.6 15.1 16.2 19.3 21.6 26.3 Pahiatua 11.5 11.4 13.3 14.6 16.6 17.9 18.5 20.8 Paihia 13.5 13.7 12.4 16.0 16.2 18.3 19.5 24.1 Palmerston North 9.0 9.3 10.0 10.1 10.3 11.2 11.5 13.3 Patea 7.4 7.7 11.2 12.9 15.6 16.5 17.3 20.5 Picton 11.1 13.4 15.4 17.4 17.3 19.6 21.0 27.1 Pleasant Point 6.7 9.0 11.5 13.8 17.4 18.4 20.8 18.6 Porirua Zone 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.8 7.0 6.9 7.9 10.3 Pukekohe 9.3 10.8 11.7 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.4 13.7 Putaruru 6.7 7.8 9.7 11.7 14.2 17.6 18.7 23.1 Queenstown 6.4 8.0 7.1 7.9 7.2 7.5 6.9 8.2 Raetihi 6.7 6.0 6.1 9.2 10.8 9.5 9.3 9.3 Raglan 24.5 24.6 23.6 21.7 20.2 17.3 15.0 16.1 Rakaia 11.2 14.5 15.3 18.5 18.5 17.4 16.3 18.4 Rangiora 12.2 13.6 14.6 15.4 16.3 16.6 19.0 21.3 Reefton 11.2 14.6 15.3 18.1 17.2 17.4 19.0 17.9 Riverton 17.4 16.2 17.8 18.8 17.7 19.9 20.8 26.5 Rolleston 3.7 2.6 3.8 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.3 7.0 Rotorua 6.0 7.5 8.5 9.8 10.7 11.4 12.0 14.3 Shannon 8.6 8.8 8.8 10.8 13.2 12.6 13.3 17.8 Snells Beach 14.6 14.7 16.8 20.5 25.7 25.4 26.0 30.4 Southern Auckland Zone 5.5 6.3 7.0 7.7 8.3 8.5 8.5 10.2 Stratford 12.3 13.1 13.9 16.2 17.8 19.3 19.5 20.4 Taihape 6.4 7.4 9.0 11.3 11.6 13.8 15.7 17.6 Taipa Bay-Mangonui 18.9 18.8 21.4 22.1 23.4 23.2 25.0 27.5 Tairua 11.3 16.6 18.0 22.7 26.9 26.0 28.7 36.2 Takaka 8.0 8.4 10.4 14.1 15.7 16.4 17.5 19.1 Taumarunui 7.2 8.0 9.1 10.4 12.4 14.9 15.9 17.9 Taupo 6.1 7.6 8.9 11.0 11.9 13.5 15.1 18.3 Tauranga 11.4 13.6 15.0 16.6 17.3 17.4 17.6 19.5 Te Anau 3.4 4.2 5.3 7.0 8.4 11.3 11.5 16.0 Te Aroha 14.1 15.0 14.9 16.0 18.4 21.2 23.5 26.6 Te Awamutu Zone 11.3 12.6 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.6 16.8 18.5 (cont.)

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Appendix C (cont.): Percentage aged 65+ years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Towns

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Te Kauwhata 5.5 13.7 16.6 18.6 20.2 22.7 22.2 25.2 Te Kuiti 8.6 9.1 10.4 10.8 12.3 13.7 13.8 15.9 Te Puke Community 9.1 10.9 12.2 15.7 17.8 19.0 19.8 19.8 Temuka 12.9 14.3 16.5 18.2 19.5 19.6 20.8 23.4 Thames 14.9 16.0 17.6 18.8 19.7 21.5 24.9 28.3 Timaru 12.5 13.6 14.9 16.4 17.4 18.7 19.5 21.3 Tokoroa 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.4 6.6 8.3 12.3 15.4 Turangi 1.6 2.2 5.3 7.2 10.1 11.9 14.3 17.7 Twizel Community 0.4 0.5 1.8 5.9 10.2 14.5 16.0 21.1 Upper Hutt Zone 5.2 6.2 7.6 9.2 10.9 12.3 12.9 14.9 Waiheke Island 26.5 26.1 20.5 17.2 14.9 13.9 13.0 18.6 Waihi 15.6 16.4 16.8 15.8 16.2 19.2 21.8 26.3 Waihi Beach 20.9 25.2 25.7 24.8 23.6 21.6 19.1 24.1 Waikouaiti 13.6 14.2 17.5 16.4 16.7 21.1 23.8 30.6 Waimate 18.5 20.6 24.0 27.3 28.4 29.7 31.7 35.8 Waiouru 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.8 Waipawa 11.4 12.0 12.0 14.3 15.8 15.7 15.0 19.3 Waipukurau 10.4 12.9 13.2 15.8 16.6 18.2 19.3 22.2 Wairoa 8.0 9.1 9.7 10.5 11.3 13.6 13.6 16.1 Waitara 9.2 10.0 10.3 11.5 13.7 15.9 17.0 18.7 Waiuku 7.8 9.8 9.4 10.1 11.3 11.4 12.7 15.8 Wakefield 7.9 10.3 12.3 14.2 13.4 13.5 10.2 11.9 Wanaka 11.6 15.0 14.7 18.3 17.2 16.7 13.1 16.7 Wanganui 12.9 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.8 18.0 20.0 Warkworth 11.6 15.6 17.3 20.7 25.5 23.4 23.9 26.3 Wellington Zone 8.7 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.4 9.5 Wellsford 6.9 8.9 11.2 14.0 15.3 15.5 15.4 18.9 Western Auckland Zone 5.4 5.9 6.8 7.5 8.4 8.8 9.4 10.9 Westport 11.6 13.5 14.1 15.2 16.7 18.9 18.9 19.4 Whakatane 7.8 9.1 11.4 13.1 14.1 14.6 15.8 18.7 Whangamata 15.6 20.0 17.4 21.2 24.8 27.7 28.5 34.6 Whangarei 9.0 10.5 10.9 12.9 13.9 15.2 16.0 18.6 Whitianga 15.1 16.4 17.2 20.2 18.6 19.4 18.5 22.7 Winton 11.5 14.8 18.2 22.9 25.6 26.9 27.8 25.9 Woodend 7.0 5.4 6.9 7.9 10.1 8.9 11.4 16.6 Woodville 12.2 12.4 14.2 13.8 14.3 15.7 17.3 20.2 Total (Towns) 9.4 10.5 11.2 11.9 12.3 12.5 12.7 14.4

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Appendix D: Percentage aged 65+ years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Rural Centres

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Rural Centre Ahipara 8.9 11.1 9.5 9.1 11.0 10.8 11.3 14.4 Rural Centre Akaroa 15.6 18.1 23.6 29.4 30.5 31.2 28.5 31.2 Rural Centre Athenree 25.5 21.9 19.1 25.0 30.1 31.3 28.2 32.1 Rural Centre Awanui 6.3 5.4 11.5 12.9 9.6 13.2 9.4 10.6 Rural Centre Blackball 16.5 18.2 18.4 15.6 13.0 14.4 11.8 15.3 Rural Centre Bombay 5.5 4.9 6.3 6.0 6.2 8.8 9.7 12.7 Rural Centre Burnham Military Camp 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 0.6 Rural Centre Cheviot 5.8 7.4 11.8 12.4 17.8 23.1 26.9 30.4 Rural Centre Clinton 9.0 7.6 9.3 14.1 14.2 16.3 14.1 18.3 Rural Centre Clyde 10.8 11.1 9.9 14.3 17.4 19.9 18.2 24.1 Rural Centre Culverden 4.5 2.5 5.4 4.9 8.9 11.4 12.4 17.6 Rural Centre Cust 6.8 5.3 5.7 5.4 9.2 10.4 16.2 17.7 Rural Centre Dobson 10.5 10.6 8.9 9.2 10.5 10.4 10.3 12.6 Rural Centre Dunsandel 8.2 10.8 10.6 11.7 9.4 8.9 11.0 12.1 Rural Centre Edendale Community 13.1 14.4 13.0 18.3 17.6 18.9 19.6 16.4 Rural Centre Egmont Village 9.1 6.6 4.6 5.5 6.1 5.2 7.6 10.0 Rural Centre Eketahuna 12.9 13.6 13.2 14.4 17.0 16.2 19.2 24.1 Rural Centre Fairlie 11.8 14.9 14.5 18.0 16.5 20.1 21.3 29.1 Rural Centre Fox Glacier 3.4 7.5 6.8 11.1 4.9 6.0 5.8 6.1 Rural Centre Franz Josef 3.7 2.9 2.4 5.6 3.1 4.3 4.3 5.4 Rural Centre Frasertown 5.2 6.0 7.9 9.8 10.5 12.2 10.9 22.9 Rural Centre Halcombe 9.6 7.1 6.5 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.7 10.0 Rural Centre Hampden 23.3 31.3 25.3 22.9 22.5 27.7 26.3 35.7 Rural Centre Hanmer Springs 6.3 9.8 11.0 14.7 16.4 13.1 12.9 14.6 Rural Centre Harihari 3.2 1.7 2.2 4.9 7.9 9.3 9.5 16.8 Rural Centre Haruru Falls 4.9 7.3 6.3 10.9 14.9 15.9 17.1 22.9 Rural Centre Havelock 13.6 11.9 11.8 11.5 17.1 17.6 16.8 25.6 Rural Centre Hector-Ngakawau 13.0 17.9 19.3 17.8 13.8 19.8 23.4 22.2 Rural Centre Himatangi Beach 28.6 25.0 15.3 14.2 16.3 16.3 13.2 18.1 Rural Centre Hunterville 6.3 10.1 13.5 18.5 20.5 16.8 17.2 20.8 Rural Centre Island View-Pios Beach 15.6 18.1 22.2 16.2 20.9 18.0 18.8 24.3 Rural Centre Kaeo 10.3 13.7 11.3 10.2 12.6 11.6 16.0 20.1 Rural Centre Kaingaroa Forest 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.5 3.1 3.3 3.8 8.3 Rural Centre Kaitangata 11.1 9.9 9.7 10.3 9.8 13.0 12.3 14.1 Rural Centre Kaiwaka 6.3 8.1 5.7 6.0 6.7 7.3 10.6 12.6 Rural Centre Kakanui 17.6 14.0 12.6 12.4 12.7 17.8 20.3 26.0 Rural Centre Kaponga 4.5 9.3 10.3 9.3 8.8 10.5 9.1 11.1 Rural Centre Karamea 5.6 7.5 7.5 6.7 7.9 14.5 16.4 18.5 Rural Centre Karitane 18.1 20.7 18.1 15.8 16.3 21.8 23.1 27.3 Rural Centre Kaukapakapa 13.8 19.2 15.2 13.5 10.9 11.3 7.9 8.7 Rural Centre Kawhia Community 21.6 21.3 21.1 19.4 19.8 19.9 25.2 28.3 Rural Centre Kerepehi 3.6 5.0 3.8 4.2 8.7 7.7 10.0 12.7 Rural Centre Kinloch 14.3 12.5 13.3 21.6 20.7 22.2 22.0 20.5 Rural Centre Kurow 10.9 9.3 12.9 16.9 19.9 24.0 26.5 34.9 Rural Centre Lake Tekapo 1.3 2.4 4.3 4.7 7.1 10.1 12.4 12.4 Rural Centre Lawrence 13.8 12.6 11.6 15.6 13.6 17.8 17.1 18.1 Rural Centre Leigh 18.2 18.4 16.8 18.9 20.1 19.6 17.5 20.0 Rural Centre Lumsden Community 6.7 7.7 10.4 13.2 13.0 14.5 15.7 17.9 Rural Centre Mahurangi 15.4 32.1 20.0 31.4 25.9 20.9 15.2 25.2 Rural Centre Makara-Ohariu 4.7 6.3 5.3 5.2 8.1 8.2 7.6 8.7 Rural Centre Maketu Community 12.4 13.7 12.9 12.1 13.4 13.9 13.1 17.5 Rural Centre Mamaku 6.2 6.3 6.6 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.8 9.6 Rural Centre Manaia 9.9 11.8 12.7 11.7 10.1 12.1 13.0 15.5 Rural Centre Manapouri 5.1 5.1 4.8 8.0 9.6 11.4 13.0 23.4 Rural Centre Mangakino 12.9 17.1 16.1 15.2 14.4 14.3 15.4 17.9 (cont.)

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Appendix D (cont.): Percentage aged 65+ years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Rural Centres

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Rural Centre Manutuke 4.3 6.8 6.3 7.7 8.1 7.6 9.5 14.9 Rural Centre Matata 8.3 9.7 9.3 11.2 13.7 12.2 15.1 19.2 Rural Centre Maungatapere 4.0 4.2 5.6 7.0 7.9 12.5 13.6 17.2 Rural Centre Maungaturoto 7.4 7.0 7.3 8.7 10.8 12.8 12.7 17.8 Rural Centre Meremere 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 5.7 9.6 6.5 8.9 Rural Centre Mt Cook 0.0 1.4 2.2 3.0 4.2 8.7 2.9 1.6 Rural Centre Murchison 6.0 7.4 10.0 12.1 13.5 15.3 18.8 21.3 Rural Centre Muriwai Beach 13.6 12.9 12.8 9.8 8.6 7.2 5.8 9.3 Rural Centre Nightcaps 9.0 14.2 14.2 14.2 15.9 17.1 18.4 23.2 Rural Centre Nuhaka 8.1 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.3 14.4 20.7 Rural Centre Ohaeawai 4.3 7.7 9.3 11.3 13.8 11.6 14.8 19.9 Rural Centre Ohai 8.0 8.0 8.7 10.3 10.5 11.4 12.5 18.6 Rural Centre Ohura 8.3 7.9 5.6 6.3 5.6 9.5 10.9 21.4 Rural Centre Okaihau 9.0 9.0 8.7 10.1 11.2 12.3 9.7 12.5 Rural Centre Okato 8.6 11.6 9.2 9.9 11.4 10.5 13.1 12.4 Rural Centre Omapere and Opononi 12.4 19.1 16.0 14.7 14.4 15.1 17.2 19.1 Rural Centre Omarama 6.7 5.7 2.0 5.5 7.6 10.4 8.9 12.1 Rural Centre Opua East 14.6 13.4 14.2 11.7 14.3 15.9 17.8 33.3 Rural Centre Otane 11.7 9.1 7.9 6.1 8.0 5.6 8.1 14.7 Rural Centre Otautau 7.9 10.0 10.9 12.1 14.3 14.7 14.7 18.6 Rural Centre Otematata 3.9 8.7 9.6 9.2 12.6 19.7 25.4 33.3 Rural Centre Outram 10.4 14.1 15.3 15.4 13.7 12.1 12.1 14.5 Rural Centre Owaka 15.4 15.1 14.9 13.6 15.0 14.7 13.1 16.0 Rural Centre Paengaroa 8.4 7.7 6.9 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.5 12.2 Rural Centre Palmerston 17.3 19.0 19.3 20.5 20.1 24.5 27.7 28.8 Rural Centre Parakai Urban 15.0 11.0 7.0 10.4 11.8 10.5 12.0 18.9 Rural Centre Pareora 5.3 7.7 6.4 8.6 9.0 11.6 11.4 14.2 Rural Centre Patutahi 5.9 5.3 5.7 6.1 8.5 8.3 6.6 11.5 Rural Centre Pauanui Beach 7.1 16.7 22.7 31.1 37.2 36.2 37.4 43.8 Rural Centre Piopio 5.8 7.9 8.9 10.8 13.8 15.7 14.6 17.6 Rural Centre Rahotu 6.2 7.5 8.2 9.5 9.7 9.1 12.2 13.4 Rural Centre Ranfurly 7.8 12.1 13.0 14.6 20.6 29.3 33.5 32.9 Rural Centre Ratana Community 4.4 4.0 4.5 2.1 5.4 7.0 11.4 15.6 Rural Centre Rawene 10.8 15.8 17.5 13.2 13.7 14.5 17.2 20.5 Rural Centre Reporoa 1.6 2.0 1.0 3.6 3.1 3.8 5.0 9.9 Rural Centre Riversdale Community 7.7 8.4 10.4 10.4 15.0 17.2 17.0 15.4 Rural Centre Riwaka 7.4 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.4 10.6 13.8 15.4 Rural Centre Rongotea 9.0 7.2 6.5 7.3 8.5 9.9 12.2 16.4 Rural Centre Ross 9.4 12.6 12.9 14.7 15.2 18.9 17.2 18.9 Rural Centre Roxburgh 15.7 21.6 24.8 24.8 20.4 24.4 27.1 33.5 Rural Centre Ruatoria 5.1 4.9 4.7 6.7 7.0 7.9 6.4 7.7 Rural Centre Ruawai 10.5 8.6 12.6 15.0 18.4 16.0 21.1 24.5 Rural Centre Russell 12.4 14.5 16.1 16.9 19.1 17.8 19.5 28.0 Rural Centre Sanson 10.2 9.0 8.4 11.8 9.4 12.1 12.1 12.5 Rural Centre Seddon 5.8 8.0 8.9 7.9 8.8 12.7 12.3 15.4 Rural Centre Sefton 7.1 5.8 6.6 8.8 8.8 9.0 9.1 11.2 Rural Centre Southbridge 11.2 9.2 12.1 11.0 11.6 9.6 11.5 11.0 Rural Centre Stirling 7.1 9.3 9.0 9.5 12.4 11.1 10.9 9.1 Rural Centre Taitapu 7.8 6.9 7.5 6.8 8.6 8.6 8.1 10.8 Rural Centre Takapau 8.0 9.6 9.0 10.7 10.4 13.3 12.9 15.0 Rural Centre Taneatua 4.2 3.6 3.9 5.4 5.5 5.6 6.1 7.7 Rural Centre Tapanui 8.7 7.6 9.3 17.6 17.7 18.1 21.1 25.7 Rural Centre Tapawera 2.0 2.1 3.5 5.4 5.1 8.7 9.5 12.1 Rural Centre Te Horo 14.8 18.2 12.4 10.3 11.4 15.1 11.8 17.5 (cont.)

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Appendix D (cont.): Percentage aged 65+ years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Rural Centres

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Rural Centre Te Kaha 7.2 9.2 12.1 12.4 9.8 10.4 13.6 19.7 Rural Centre Te Karaka 3.8 6.3 4.3 5.1 6.0 8.8 7.7 9.9 Rural Centre Te Kopuru 11.0 13.8 14.7 17.9 16.0 15.7 19.3 19.6 Rural Centre Te Puru-Thornton Bay 24.3 27.7 27.5 25.4 21.2 22.0 21.3 33.2 Rural Centre Te Teko 2.9 4.6 4.6 6.1 4.8 6.8 4.9 9.3 Rural Centre Tirau 7.8 9.6 10.0 11.0 12.0 14.1 17.5 18.7 Rural Centre Tokomaru 8.4 6.9 5.8 5.9 4.1 4.4 5.8 9.3 Rural Centre Tokomaru Bay 10.7 8.1 9.1 7.5 9.5 9.9 12.6 14.6 Rural Centre Tolaga Bay 5.3 6.4 8.6 10.2 11.8 10.4 9.1 12.8 Rural Centre Tuai 3.0 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.6 6.7 6.1 9.5 Rural Centre Tuatapere 5.9 7.9 11.4 14.0 12.2 13.4 17.5 24.4 Rural Centre Urenui 20.2 17.1 14.3 13.4 17.3 19.3 20.9 25.9 Rural Centre Waharoa 4.7 5.8 3.8 4.7 5.9 8.0 10.6 6.4 Rural Centre Waiau 10.2 10.4 11.5 14.1 10.9 12.9 14.4 15.3 Rural Centre Waikuku 13.0 8.4 10.1 7.7 7.1 8.8 8.8 11.4 Rural Centre Waimana 6.9 5.3 4.5 3.1 5.0 7.3 7.4 6.8 Rural Centre Waitati 30.8 12.8 10.0 16.9 14.9 9.1 6.0 11.2 Rural Centre Waitoa 6.8 6.5 5.3 5.1 5.5 8.3 12.3 15.4 Rural Centre Wallacetown 3.1 3.5 4.7 6.1 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.4 Rural Centre Warrington 9.9 11.6 8.9 7.9 10.0 9.2 9.4 16.3 Rural Centre Waverley 7.6 8.6 10.7 13.7 15.0 17.0 19.2 21.5 Rural Centre Woodlands 4.5 6.4 10.5 11.9 11.1 10.5 11.8 12.6 Rural Centre Wyndham 8.6 10.9 12.2 14.0 15.0 15.7 18.0 18.7 Total Rural Centres 8.7 9.6 10.0 11.2 12.1 13.2 13.9 17.1 Omitted* Rural Centre Pegasus 9.3 12.5 0.0 7.7 6.3 11.8 21.4 12.9

*Rural Centre Pegasus was omitted from the correlation analysis because of extremely low numbers until 2006, following which the town grew by over 3000%. This outlier overly biased the analysis

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Appendix E: Percentage Women aged 15-44 years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Towns

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Alexandra 36.2 39.4 40.9 40.5 36.3 31.3 32.3 26.8 Amberley 37.8 38.2 39.5 34.4 33.0 28.1 28.2 27.1 Arrowtown 39.1 43.4 45.0 43.4 46.2 43.3 44.6 38.6 Ashburton 37.8 38.7 40.4 39.7 36.6 34.4 34.2 33.2 Balclutha 40.4 41.5 43.1 42.8 39.9 37.1 33.6 32.1 Blenheim 39.9 42.0 43.5 41.8 40.8 38.1 37.2 34.3 Bluff 43.3 45.5 47.1 46.1 41.9 39.8 37.2 30.3 Brightwater 48.1 47.5 46.1 50.0 46.1 45.9 42.6 37.6 Bulls 43.9 47.3 46.8 47.7 46.1 43.9 43.8 39.4 Cambridge Zone 39.1 41.3 43.3 43.8 42.1 40.1 37.1 34.3 Carterton 38.1 40.6 39.7 40.7 38.2 34.9 34.0 30.1 Central Auckland Zone 42.7 44.6 47.4 49.3 50.3 50.0 50.7 48.1 Christchurch 42.4 44.0 46.0 46.9 46.3 44.3 43.2 40.1 Coromandel 32.1 37.1 39.7 37.7 36.2 34.3 33.3 27.8 Cromwell 35.7 46.5 48.3 49.9 41.2 37.3 40.9 35.7 Dannevirke 36.4 39.5 40.7 41.2 38.8 35.9 35.4 31.6 Darfield 38.8 43.4 40.9 37.8 37.0 36.0 34.3 32.7 Dargaville 38.8 39.6 41.9 40.9 36.3 34.6 32.3 29.6 Dunedin 42.3 43.6 46.8 48.9 49.4 47.7 47.7 45.3 Edgecumbe 43.1 45.8 48.4 47.4 46.0 38.1 38.8 39.9 Eltham 39.8 42.3 44.8 42.4 38.9 40.7 37.8 34.9 Featherston 40.6 42.9 46.0 46.2 40.8 37.6 34.4 33.6 Feilding 38.3 39.6 41.5 43.3 41.5 39.0 37.6 34.5 Foxton Community 30.7 33.3 36.4 36.7 33.5 31.5 32.5 29.2 Geraldine 30.9 33.1 34.1 32.2 31.9 29.9 29.0 24.9 Gisborne 39.0 42.3 43.4 43.1 41.9 40.5 38.7 36.9 Gore 38.7 41.0 42.5 42.3 40.4 37.2 34.8 31.6 Greymouth 40.7 44.0 46.0 44.6 43.0 39.0 38.1 35.5 Greytown 36.4 36.3 36.2 38.6 36.6 31.4 28.6 26.1 Hamilton Zone 46.2 47.9 50.1 50.2 49.5 47.0 46.3 43.8 Hastings Zone 40.1 42.6 44.0 44.2 42.0 39.5 38.4 35.2 Hawera 38.1 40.4 41.1 41.6 41.1 39.1 37.2 36.0 Helensville 39.3 42.5 41.1 45.0 42.4 43.0 40.9 37.8 Hokitika 37.5 43.5 45.3 42.7 41.5 38.1 36.6 33.4 Huntly 39.8 41.6 42.4 43.1 41.8 40.2 39.0 36.6 Inglewood 38.1 40.0 43.8 45.8 43.0 38.0 34.9 35.9 Invercargill 41.6 44.2 45.1 45.6 44.4 41.8 40.7 38.3 Kaikohe 39.8 43.5 44.4 45.6 42.3 40.7 39.0 36.3 Kaikoura 34.5 41.1 42.0 39.6 39.5 35.8 38.7 31.9 Kaitaia 41.5 42.2 42.0 42.1 41.6 38.8 37.3 33.6 Kapiti 35.3 35.1 35.8 36.8 34.5 32.1 31.2 28.8 Katikati Community 31.3 37.0 35.9 37.0 30.7 29.0 26.4 25.3 Kawakawa 44.4 43.2 48.2 45.9 42.2 42.6 41.5 34.0 Kawerau 45.0 46.8 48.4 48.4 45.8 40.7 38.2 35.6 Kerikeri 36.6 40.0 42.0 39.5 35.1 32.4 31.6 28.5 Leeston 36.8 35.4 42.1 39.9 41.0 37.8 37.8 32.8 Levin 37.1 39.0 40.8 39.8 37.5 34.8 31.6 28.9 Lincoln 47.3 51.9 57.2 50.7 58.7 50.0 46.6 46.1 Lower Hutt Zone 42.1 44.1 46.1 47.5 45.7 44.5 43.3 40.3 Mangawhai Heads 20.7 19.5 28.2 28.7 24.0 21.6 25.2 21.3 Mapua 35.1 37.1 44.0 42.8 41.0 37.6 30.7 24.7 Martinborough 35.8 36.3 37.6 40.8 37.1 36.4 33.8 29.5 Marton 39.0 40.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 36.0 32.8 31.4 Masterton 40.4 41.8 41.6 41.3 39.7 36.9 34.6 33.5 Matamata 37.1 39.7 38.9 39.0 35.8 35.4 30.8 31.1 (cont.)

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Appendix E (cont.): Percentage Women aged 15-44 years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Towns

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Methven 40.3 41.0 45.0 43.6 43.7 40.4 36.8 38.7 Milton 38.1 38.9 38.8 39.7 39.0 36.9 31.7 33.0 Moerewa 39.7 45.3 45.5 47.2 45.4 42.1 41.2 40.4 Morrinsville 38.2 39.6 41.8 41.0 41.5 37.5 35.5 34.1 Motueka 36.0 40.1 41.3 42.2 39.5 36.8 35.1 31.4 Murupara 42.8 47.6 48.1 50.5 48.1 41.8 40.8 40.1 Napier Zone 40.1 42.4 44.1 43.1 41.6 39.3 38.3 34.3 Nelson 39.1 41.8 43.9 44.0 42.9 40.8 38.5 33.9 New Plymouth 40.4 41.8 44.4 44.0 42.3 39.3 38.4 35.9 Ngatea 44.8 47.8 42.2 42.9 36.4 34.2 30.8 29.3 Ngunguru 34.7 34.6 43.3 39.2 34.8 31.2 31.8 26.6 Northern Auckland Zone 42.5 44.7 46.1 46.5 44.9 43.5 43.4 40.5 Oamaru 35.2 36.6 37.8 37.5 36.6 33.0 29.6 28.4 Ohakune 41.2 48.0 51.3 50.0 48.5 42.5 39.9 39.0 Opotiki 36.1 40.3 40.8 42.0 40.1 37.7 35.7 34.1 Opunake 35.9 39.9 42.4 40.4 37.3 36.1 34.1 34.1 Otaki 33.9 34.7 33.2 34.4 32.7 32.4 32.1 29.6 Otorohanga 40.4 41.0 42.3 41.5 39.8 37.6 34.9 33.2 Oxford 35.8 36.2 38.6 40.7 38.4 34.9 30.3 28.7 Paeroa 39.8 41.1 43.5 41.2 38.2 33.2 31.8 29.3 Pahiatua 36.9 39.0 40.6 42.9 41.0 37.0 34.5 31.8 Paihia 36.0 40.2 44.9 38.8 38.1 36.9 34.2 31.9 Palmerston North 45.5 48.7 50.9 51.7 51.0 47.6 46.7 44.0 Patea 36.9 42.6 39.7 39.3 37.2 33.9 32.7 30.2 Picton 36.9 37.8 40.0 39.1 36.7 33.6 32.2 25.9 Pleasant Point 43.7 41.9 40.7 38.8 37.6 35.4 31.3 31.6 Porirua Zone 43.5 46.8 50.0 50.0 47.0 45.3 43.8 40.8 Pukekohe 39.8 41.5 44.0 45.8 43.5 42.5 41.5 39.1 Putaruru 39.4 42.4 43.3 40.8 40.0 37.0 35.0 30.9 Queenstown 53.5 55.4 58.4 58.5 60.7 58.5 61.1 59.2 Raetihi 35.4 43.3 44.3 42.1 43.9 41.5 39.0 38.7 Raglan 26.3 30.5 32.4 37.3 36.8 38.9 40.4 37.7 Rakaia 40.2 36.3 38.1 37.7 33.9 35.6 34.8 32.8 Rangiora 38.4 39.2 41.5 42.7 40.7 37.8 34.9 32.8 Reefton 37.1 39.8 41.4 36.8 37.4 37.6 34.2 33.5 Riverton 33.2 36.6 36.7 36.8 35.2 32.7 31.7 29.4 Rolleston 46.5 49.7 50.3 55.0 49.4 49.2 48.7 43.8 Rotorua 43.9 45.7 47.6 46.9 45.4 43.4 40.9 37.9 Shannon 39.3 39.7 41.0 40.5 38.5 39.7 39.4 34.1 Snells Beach 32.3 32.3 37.2 34.3 30.1 29.0 29.1 25.4 Southern Auckland Zone 44.2 46.8 48.8 48.7 46.9 45.1 44.9 42.9 Stratford 38.5 39.5 40.3 39.3 39.4 36.6 35.5 34.7 Taihape 42.5 44.7 44.9 43.5 41.1 37.5 39.7 34.5 Taipa Bay-Mangonui 26.3 30.6 32.6 31.8 30.9 27.6 24.9 24.5 Tairua 29.4 30.9 30.2 29.6 25.9 28.2 27.1 18.3 Takaka 36.8 42.9 44.9 44.1 38.8 39.6 33.5 33.5 Taumarunui 41.4 44.9 45.8 44.3 40.6 37.0 35.0 31.7 Taupo 44.0 46.0 47.0 45.8 43.3 40.4 38.5 35.5 Tauranga 38.6 40.4 41.5 40.8 39.6 38.3 37.3 34.5 Te Anau 54.8 52.8 52.8 50.8 49.7 46.3 47.3 39.3 Te Aroha 36.1 37.7 41.2 38.0 36.7 33.8 32.3 29.1 Te Awamutu Zone 38.9 41.2 43.1 42.1 41.7 38.9 37.5 34.5 (cont.)

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Appendix E (cont.): Percentage Women aged 15-44 years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Towns

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Te Kauwhata 40.0 41.3 35.7 36.7 34.4 31.7 30.7 32.5 Te Kuiti 42.0 43.9 44.3 44.7 41.7 40.8 38.7 36.1 Te Puke Community 38.9 40.8 41.8 38.3 37.2 35.3 35.3 33.9 Temuka 35.6 38.4 37.9 39.1 36.6 34.5 33.4 31.1 Thames 37.6 38.8 39.2 39.2 37.2 34.2 29.8 26.1 Timaru 37.7 40.3 41.7 41.3 39.5 37.0 35.4 33.0 Tokoroa 46.5 48.7 50.0 48.8 45.1 42.3 38.1 36.5 Turangi 43.5 46.8 45.5 45.2 41.8 39.6 38.7 33.7 Twizel Community 49.4 49.2 48.9 44.6 46.1 36.0 37.0 27.6 Upper Hutt Zone 45.6 46.9 48.4 48.2 45.4 42.0 40.0 38.2 Waiheke Island 24.7 30.0 36.7 39.9 38.5 37.9 37.7 32.0 Waihi 34.5 36.0 39.6 41.1 39.1 32.4 28.1 27.7 Waihi Beach 28.6 30.1 30.9 32.2 33.0 31.7 32.1 27.5 Waikouaiti 35.5 37.7 38.8 36.4 37.1 32.3 30.4 23.2 Waimate 31.9 33.4 32.6 31.4 30.0 27.1 24.2 23.0 Waiouru 50.7 57.4 62.0 59.3 60.8 57.0 54.6 51.5 Waipawa 37.1 38.1 41.2 40.4 38.3 38.0 37.6 33.1 Waipukurau 39.8 40.1 41.2 41.0 39.9 36.6 35.5 29.2 Wairoa 40.1 40.2 41.7 41.5 41.4 38.0 35.9 35.2 Waitara 39.8 42.8 45.4 45.4 41.6 38.1 36.6 33.2 Waiuku 41.6 41.9 45.4 46.2 43.3 41.9 39.8 36.0 Wakefield 37.6 41.1 41.1 45.7 43.0 41.5 41.3 36.0 Wanaka 40.7 39.0 43.6 38.7 41.7 39.2 43.3 37.4 Wanganui 37.5 39.9 41.9 41.3 40.6 37.6 35.8 32.8 Warkworth 35.4 37.7 39.7 34.7 31.9 32.9 30.6 29.3 Wellington Zone 47.7 49.9 52.6 54.6 54.1 52.9 53.1 49.9 Wellsford 39.9 41.0 43.7 41.0 37.9 38.2 36.6 33.2 Western Auckland Zone 46.3 48.2 49.7 50.6 48.2 46.6 45.6 42.9 Westport 37.1 38.6 41.7 41.7 37.9 35.0 35.2 33.4 Whakatane 40.9 42.4 42.8 43.1 41.3 39.5 36.7 33.8 Whangamata 32.3 32.7 36.7 33.2 29.8 27.1 26.3 22.7 Whangarei 41.4 43.1 45.7 44.3 42.2 39.8 38.0 34.7 Whitianga 31.7 36.0 34.7 33.2 36.0 33.1 32.1 28.1 Winton 37.6 39.4 37.8 35.5 32.9 31.6 30.9 28.9 Woodend 48.0 50.0 49.0 46.3 46.0 43.4 39.2 34.1 Woodville 35.3 36.7 39.1 43.6 39.9 39.1 34.4 32.6

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Appendix F: Percentage Women aged 15-44 years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Rural Centres

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 RurC_Ahipara 37.7 36.3 43.1 41.1 41.0 40.7 41.3 30.9 RurC_Akaroa 30.2 32.0 30.8 30.8 29.2 28.0 27.0 24.8 RurC_Athenree 24.0 38.7 40.9 30.4 27.4 23.0 26.5 23.4 RurC_Awanui 42.4 41.8 48.1 43.1 47.5 45.2 40.3 38.3 RurC_Blackball 33.3 32.2 42.4 42.9 38.1 38.5 33.3 29.5 RurC_Bombay 44.9 50.0 45.9 41.9 44.0 43.3 38.8 31.8 RurC_Burnham Military Camp 52.9 56.8 59.6 68.1 63.9 62.7 66.7 69.1 RurC_Cheviot 44.9 47.9 43.9 35.5 32.4 29.0 29.9 23.3 RurC_Clinton 43.5 43.8 45.5 47.5 38.9 32.7 36.7 28.6 RurC_Clyde 35.2 38.3 45.1 40.3 35.7 31.9 32.4 26.3 RurC_Culverden 43.5 48.6 44.8 45.1 38.2 40.3 32.8 36.6 RurC_Cust 40.9 43.1 38.2 38.7 35.7 35.9 27.9 30.3 RurC_Dobson 41.5 42.0 47.0 45.5 46.4 38.2 39.3 34.3 RurC_Dunsandel 43.5 40.7 44.2 44.9 46.6 46.9 40.8 37.3 RurC_Edendale Community 38.9 36.7 39.6 34.4 37.2 35.2 32.9 35.6 RurC_Egmont Village 48.6 46.4 50.0 47.6 47.5 40.8 43.0 36.6 RurC_Eketahuna 33.6 36.3 35.7 36.4 33.9 35.4 34.2 34.7 RurC_Fairlie 35.3 39.3 39.1 37.7 34.3 35.2 28.6 26.3 RurC_Fox Glacier 57.7 65.2 69.2 64.0 68.4 67.4 58.7 60.4 RurC_Franz Josef 61.5 68.8 70.7 60.6 60.9 59.0 68.1 64.8 RurC_Frasertown 39.3 44.6 43.4 47.5 40.4 44.7 39.2 28.2 RurC_Halcombe 40.3 50.0 50.8 48.4 48.4 43.7 38.4 36.3 RurC_Hampden 20.8 25.6 31.4 31.4 38.5 22.0 22.0 21.2 RurC_Hanmer Springs 42.5 45.8 48.0 41.7 40.8 38.1 42.3 38.9 RurC_Harihari 48.8 48.1 48.9 48.6 36.9 39.0 34.6 37.7 RurC_Haruru Falls 43.9 44.2 45.8 45.6 41.2 38.2 35.8 27.5 RurC_Havelock 34.0 38.2 41.9 41.8 36.7 38.2 35.4 26.9 RurC_Hector-Ngakawau 29.6 34.0 39.6 41.7 40.3 34.0 38.9 25.7 RurC_Himatangi Beach 19.4 30.3 35.1 36.4 36.5 33.7 33.8 26.5 RurC_Hunterville 38.7 43.0 41.6 38.4 34.9 33.3 31.5 25.3 RurC_Island View-Pios Beach 30.3 33.3 34.6 32.9 32.6 30.1 27.5 23.7 RurC_Kaeo 42.6 38.7 47.1 38.8 37.6 38.1 35.4 27.6 RurC_Kaingaroa Forest 45.7 54.6 55.7 50.5 51.8 45.2 44.9 40.9 RurC_Kaitangata 37.0 42.4 45.6 43.5 45.7 43.7 40.9 36.3 RurC_Kaiwaka 34.9 44.7 45.8 49.2 43.7 42.5 40.9 37.5 RurC_Kakanui 38.5 38.5 44.8 36.8 32.4 27.4 30.4 22.7 RurC_Kaponga 42.2 44.8 42.6 41.9 40.6 41.3 42.6 33.3 RurC_Karamea 38.6 40.8 49.4 44.0 37.3 33.8 34.8 26.6 RurC_Karitane 35.7 35.9 36.1 38.2 36.1 30.9 31.1 25.0 RurC_Kaukapakapa 31.3 50.0 47.1 31.6 44.4 45.2 43.1 38.7 RurC_Kawhia Community 17.6 29.3 31.3 35.1 33.0 27.6 31.8 20.0 RurC_Kerepehi 43.7 45.9 50.5 43.5 44.2 43.4 42.2 35.8 RurC_Kinloch 45.5 28.6 35.7 27.0 35.6 33.3 32.1 26.5 RurC_Kurow 46.2 39.5 41.6 38.2 33.3 29.0 26.8 23.5 RurC_Lake Tekapo 44.7 55.8 50.0 56.3 52.9 51.0 48.1 49.2 RurC_Lawrence 34.0 35.3 44.0 37.4 41.7 36.9 34.7 29.9 RurC_Leigh 26.8 31.3 32.1 35.4 32.4 31.8 36.9 31.2 RurC_Lumsden Community 43.8 42.3 44.8 42.5 41.8 41.1 38.7 34.4 RurC_Mahurangi 45.5 45.5 41.7 32.0 25.0 22.9 27.1 22.0 RurC_Makara-Ohariu 46.2 49.5 50.0 48.6 47.6 45.8 43.8 34.8 RurC_Maketu Community 32.9 32.8 35.7 40.1 39.4 38.3 36.0 35.2 RurC_Mamaku 40.7 42.3 50.6 49.0 50.0 42.9 41.5 36.0 RurC_Manaia 37.6 39.5 40.7 38.6 41.0 36.8 39.6 34.6 RurC_Manapouri 52.2 51.2 53.2 51.3 58.1 43.2 42.6 22.2 RurC_Mangakino 33.1 35.9 35.6 38.7 39.0 37.5 35.1 31.0 (cont.)

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Appendix F (cont.): Percentage Women aged 15-44 years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Rural Centres

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 RurC_Manutuke 40.7 42.9 40.7 43.4 47.2 44.2 37.4 30.6 RurC_Matata 34.9 38.6 36.3 41.0 37.1 35.7 33.3 31.9 RurC_Maungatapere 40.8 44.2 48.7 45.1 41.2 36.7 34.3 27.6 RurC_Maungaturoto 38.2 42.1 46.1 40.7 44.4 38.4 40.3 34.4 RurC_Mt Cook 84.2 81.3 86.4 86.7 88.6 68.4 71.4 64.7 RurC_Meremere 46.0 45.0 54.3 43.6 44.9 40.7 39.7 40.3 RurC_Murchison 37.3 44.3 43.4 43.6 36.6 38.0 31.0 29.8 RurC_Muriwai Beach 37.3 36.4 45.1 49.6 52.8 50.6 50.3 41.0 RurC_Nightcaps 32.2 37.3 39.4 36.9 38.3 37.3 38.3 25.6 RurC_Nuhaka 34.4 36.8 42.2 45.5 41.1 43.4 34.1 35.0 RurC_Ohaeawai 38.2 43.3 44.4 45.0 39.6 35.8 33.1 24.6 RurC_Ohai 36.3 42.5 43.1 39.3 41.7 42.2 40.7 32.7 RurC_Ohura 37.3 47.5 42.4 45.1 49.0 50.0 29.6 26.3 RurC_Okaihau 35.4 42.4 43.6 46.6 42.3 35.0 38.9 37.7 RurC_Okato 42.9 44.3 45.0 48.2 41.2 39.5 40.2 40.4 RurC_Omapere and Opononi 27.3 27.1 33.3 37.5 38.4 31.0 37.9 31.1 RurC_Omarama 54.8 59.5 54.0 53.2 47.5 40.0 38.2 38.1 RurC_Opua East 34.1 41.2 43.8 41.7 34.5 29.8 29.0 16.3 RurC_Otane 35.7 42.6 45.5 50.0 46.5 44.4 42.4 34.8 RurC_Otautau 38.4 40.7 42.7 43.5 37.9 38.1 36.1 33.0 RurC_Rural Centre Otematata 40.4 37.5 42.6 43.1 39.3 33.3 25.0 24.1 RurC_Outram 40.2 35.5 40.8 48.0 43.1 41.0 38.9 35.3 RurC_Owaka 32.9 35.9 43.5 42.7 41.8 40.0 30.2 34.6 RurC_Paengaroa 37.0 46.0 45.5 44.4 41.0 43.4 39.7 38.8 RurC_Palmerston 30.3 34.8 37.1 34.7 37.4 31.6 31.1 25.2 RurC_Parakai Urban 39.0 45.8 47.6 49.0 50.0 46.3 40.5 33.1 RurC_Pareora 45.6 42.5 45.8 38.8 43.9 38.0 35.2 33.3 RurC_Patutahi 40.0 43.8 50.0 50.8 46.7 46.7 43.8 36.2 RurC_Pauanui Beach 38.2 27.9 26.5 25.3 22.6 16.8 20.2 14.3 RurC_Piopio 40.6 44.8 39.1 42.5 36.5 35.3 38.5 36.8 RurC_Rahotu 38.3 41.0 42.6 41.5 37.5 44.7 42.5 31.7 RurC_Ranfurly 40.7 41.6 43.0 35.1 31.9 29.0 28.8 23.7 RurC_Ratana Community 42.0 43.8 54.3 49.3 43.1 40.3 40.6 35.9 RurC_Rawene 39.3 40.4 43.3 38.4 37.4 38.5 29.5 25.3 RurC_Reporoa 50.0 50.0 50.5 54.4 50.5 43.6 47.4 36.8 RurC_Riversdale Community 40.5 43.8 40.6 44.1 37.5 39.1 38.2 38.7 RurC_Riwaka 46.4 43.2 47.9 43.2 41.2 40.6 40.3 36.1 RurC_Rongotea 40.9 46.9 48.3 45.0 47.1 41.0 38.7 34.7 RurC_Ross 38.6 37.7 40.7 45.3 40.3 35.4 30.4 25.0 RurC_Roxburgh 36.5 34.4 37.3 34.2 37.5 27.3 25.9 25.3 RurC_Ruatoria 36.0 40.0 42.4 48.6 40.4 39.3 42.3 31.7 RurC_Ruawai 40.2 39.8 38.9 38.6 37.5 35.4 28.8 22.1 RurC_Russell 38.0 38.5 38.0 38.2 34.5 34.3 24.1 22.4 RurC_Sanson 43.3 37.7 45.6 45.9 45.9 38.2 37.3 40.0 RurC_Seddon 37.9 42.9 41.8 45.3 39.3 42.5 42.5 33.3 RurC_Sefton 34.5 43.8 46.9 48.5 41.3 42.9 38.4 35.5 RurC_Southbridge 40.7 46.0 45.0 45.4 43.5 40.5 33.0 36.8 RurC_Stirling 35.6 46.2 44.6 51.0 42.0 42.6 47.9 39.2 RurC_Taitapu 43.9 43.9 40.3 50.7 44.9 41.8 32.8 31.7 RurC_Takapau 36.7 39.7 47.3 45.5 43.2 40.0 39.1 35.3 RurC_Taneatua 40.0 40.7 41.4 43.0 42.7 43.7 43.7 40.4 RurC_Tapanui 36.0 43.8 41.6 39.4 41.5 36.7 32.5 29.8 RurC_Tapawera 46.3 51.5 50.7 47.0 47.1 41.9 47.7 35.9 RurC_Te Horo 34.9 35.8 39.4 48.2 38.0 32.1 38.1 26.5 (cont.)

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Appendix F (cont.): Percentage Women aged 15-44 years, 1976-2013, New Zealand Rural Centres

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 RurC_Te Kaha 31.3 25.8 36.5 39.6 35.0 33.9 39.2 31.1 RurC_Te Karaka 39.4 40.9 46.9 45.8 48.4 49.4 47.7 36.5 RurC_Te Kopuru 36.6 36.9 36.5 34.1 32.2 32.9 27.6 27.5 RurC_Te Puru-Thornton Bay 26.4 27.2 28.4 35.5 32.1 25.9 24.7 14.9 RurC_Te Teko 40.0 40.0 44.7 45.6 43.8 40.4 42.1 37.6 RurC_Tirau 40.9 43.0 40.2 42.3 37.9 35.7 31.7 33.6 RurC_Tokomaru 43.8 41.2 45.6 49.5 48.5 50.5 45.9 40.0 RurC_Tokomaru Bay 34.9 38.3 47.3 45.6 40.8 40.8 35.2 29.7 RurC_Tolaga Bay 34.4 36.4 40.8 41.5 40.7 38.5 36.8 32.3 RurC_Tuai 44.3 41.4 45.0 47.3 44.7 38.6 36.8 38.9 RurC_Tuatapere 38.9 47.2 45.2 39.2 36.2 36.6 34.7 37.1 RurC_Urenui 30.5 37.9 45.1 39.4 35.6 34.2 35.6 28.8 RurC_Waharoa 45.8 48.4 46.2 47.1 45.7 46.5 41.6 40.5 RurC_Waiau 40.9 42.6 41.5 50.0 44.2 41.0 30.8 37.2 RurC_Waikuku 38.8 47.3 56.5 50.0 51.7 45.6 40.7 36.4 RurC_Waimana 36.0 44.9 44.4 43.8 46.6 44.3 38.2 32.4 RurC_Waitati 33.1 44.1 45.5 49.4 44.7 44.6 39.8 33.3 RurC_Waitoa 43.5 46.0 48.4 50.6 43.5 46.7 46.2 34.8 RurC_Rural Centre Wallaceto 45.3 49.1 47.4 46.8 44.5 48.0 43.0 38.6 RurC_Warrington 41.2 43.5 47.5 48.4 49.3 43.5 38.9 30.1 RurC_Waverley 37.9 40.6 42.9 41.2 35.3 33.3 31.5 31.9 RurC_Woodlands 44.4 47.1 44.4 50.0 45.7 44.4 38.9 26.2 RurC_Wyndham 39.7 38.7 38.5 41.8 42.5 40.6 38.6 36.6 Omitted* RurC_Pegasus 30.0 66.7 300.0 80.0 83.3 50.0 66.7 37.7

*Rural Centre Pegasus was omitted from the correlation analysis because of extremely low numbers until 2006, following which the town grew by over 3000%. This outlier overly biased the analysis

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Appendix G: TFR of Territorial Authority Area in which town/rural centre located

Town TA of town location 1996 2001 2006 Alexandra Central Otago 1.6 2.2 2.2 Amberley Hurunui 2.3 2.1 2.1 Arrowtown Queenstown Lakes 1.3 1.4 1.3 Ashburton Ashburton 2.0 2.1 2.2 Balclutha Clutha 2.0 2.2 2.2 Blenheim Marlborough District 1.9 1.9 2.1 Bluff Invercargill City 1.8 2.1 1.8 Brightwater Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Bulls Rangitikei District 2.1 2.5 2.0 Cambridge Zone Waipa District 2.0 2.0 2.2 Carterton Carterton District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Central Auckland Zone Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Christchurch Christchurch City 1.6 1.6 1.7 Coromandel Thames-Coromandel District 2.0 2.4 2.2 Cromwell Central Otago District 1.6 2.2 2.2 Dannevirke Tararua District 2.3 2.5 2.9 Darfield Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Dargaville Kaipara District 2.5 2.7 2.7 Dunedin Dunedin City 1.5 1.5 1.5 Edgecumbe Whakatane District 2.4 2.3 2.7 Eltham South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Featherstone South Wairarapa District 2.1 2.1 2.7 Feilding Manawatu District 1.9 2.2 2.3 Foxton Community Horowhenua District 2.3 2.3 2.6 Geraldine Timaru District 1.8 1.9 1.9 Gisborne Gisborne District 2.4 2.8 2.8 Gore Gore District 2.1 2.2 2.2 Greymouth Grey District 2.0 2.2 2.1 Greytown South Wairarapa District 2.1 2.1 2.7 Hamilton Zone Hamilton City 1.9 1.9 1.9 Hastings Zone Hastings District 2.4 2.5 2.5 Hawera South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Helensville Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Hokitika Westland District 1.8 1.9 1.7 Huntly Waikato District 2.3 2.5 2.6 Inglewood New Plymouth District 1.9 2.0 2.0 Invercargill Invercargill City 1.8 2.1 1.8 Kaikohe Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Kaikoura Kaikoura District 2.1 2.4 1.4 Kaitaia Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Kapiti Kapiti Coast District 1.8 2.3 2.1 Katikati Community Western Bay of Plenty District 2.5 2.4 2.4 Kawakawa Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Kawerau Kawerau District 2.7 2.6 3.0 Kerikeri Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Leeston Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Levin Horowhenua District 2.3 2.3 2.6 Lincoln Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Lower Hutt Zone Lower Hutt City 2.0 2.0 2.1 Mangawhai Heads Kaipara District 2.5 2.7 2.7 Mapua Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Martinborough South Wairarapa District 2.1 2.1 2.7 Marton Rangitikei District 2.1 2.5 2.0 Masterton Masterton District 2.3 2.2 2.3 Matamata Matamata-Piako District 2.3 2.3 2.4 (cont.)

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Appendix G (cont.): TFR of Territorial Authority Area in which town/rural centre located

Town TA of town location 1996 2001 2006 Methven Ashburton District 2.0 2.1 2.2 Milton Clutha District 2.0 2.2 2.2 Moerewa Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Morrinsville Matamata-Piako District 2.3 2.3 2.4 Motueka Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Murupara Whakatane District 2.4 2.3 2.7 Napier Zone Napier City 2.2 2.0 2.1 Nelson Nelson City 1.6 1.9 1.8 New Plymouth New Plymouth District 1.9 2.0 2.0 Ngatea Hauraki District 2.2 2.4 2.2 Ngunguru Whangarei District 2.2 2.3 2.5 Northern Auckland Zone Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Oamaru Waitaki District 1.9 1.9 1.9 Ohakune Ruapehu District 2.4 2.5 2.8 Opotiki Opotiki District 2.7 2.9 2.9 Opunake South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Otaki Kapiti Coast District 1.8 2.3 2.1 Otematata Waitaki District 1.9 1.9 1.9 Otorohanga Otorohanga District 2.3 2.2 2.4 Oxford Waimakariri District 1.8 2.1 2.0 Paeroa Hauraki District 2.2 2.4 2.2 Pahiatua Tararua District 2.3 2.5 2.9 Paihia Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Palmerston North Palmerston North City 1.8 1.8 1.8 Patea South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Picton Marlborough District 1.9 1.9 2.1 Pleasant Point Timaru District 1.8 1.9 1.9 Porirua Zone Porirua City 2.4 2.6 2.5 Pukekohe Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Putaruru South Waikato District 2.7 2.5 2.5 Queenstown Queenstown-Lakes District 1.3 1.4 1.3 Raetihi Ruapehu District 2.4 2.5 2.8 Raglan Waikato District 2.3 2.5 2.6 Rakaia Ashburton District 2.0 2.1 2.2 Rangiora Waimakariri District 1.8 2.1 2.0 Reefton Buller District 1.8 2.1 2.5 Riverton Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rolleston Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Rotorua Rotorua District 2.3 2.3 2.5 Shannon Horowhenua District 2.3 2.3 2.6 Snells Beach Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Southern Auckland Zone Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Stratford Stratford District 2.2 2.1 2.4 Taihape Rangitikei District 2.1 2.5 2.0 Taipa Bay-Mangonui Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Tairua Thames-Coromandel District 2.0 2.4 2.2 Takaka Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Taumarunui Ruapehu District 2.4 2.5 2.8 Taupo Taupo District 2.3 2.1 2.2 Tauranga Tauranga City 2.2 2.2 2.2 Te Anau Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Te Aroha Matamata-Piako District 2.3 2.3 2.4 Te Awamutu Zone Waipa District 2.0 2.0 2.2 (cont.)

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Appendix G (cont.): TFR of Territorial Authority Area in which town located

Town TA of town location 1996 2001 2006 Te Kauwhata Waikato District 2.3 2.5 2.6 Te Kuiti Waitomo District 2.4 2.5 2.7 Te Puke Community Western Bay of Plenty District 2.5 2.4 2.4 Temuka Timaru District 1.8 1.9 1.9 Thames Thames-Coromandel District 2.0 2.4 2.2 Timaru Timaru District 1.8 1.9 1.9 Tokoroa South Waikato District 2.7 2.5 2.5 Turangi Taupo District 2.3 2.1 2.2 Twizel Community Mackenzie District 1.8 1.7 1.9 Upper Hutt Zone Upper Hutt City 1.8 2.1 2.2 Waiheke Island Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Waihi Hauraki District 2.2 2.4 2.2 Waihi Beach Western Bay of Plenty District 2.5 2.4 2.4 Waikouaiti Dunedin City 1.5 1.5 1.5 Waimate Waimate District 2.3 1.9 2.1 Waiouru Ruapehu District 2.4 2.5 2.8 Waipawa Central Hawke's Bay District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Waipukurau Central Hawke's Bay District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Wairoa Wairoa District 2.7 2.8 2.9 Waitara New Plymouth District 1.9 2.0 2.0 Waiuku Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Wakefield Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Wallacetown Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Wanaka Queenstown-Lakes District 1.3 1.4 1.3 Wanganui Wanganui District 2.1 2.3 2.5 Warkworth Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Wellington Zone Wellington City 1.4 1.5 1.5 Wellsford Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Western Auckland Zone Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Westport Buller District 1.8 2.1 2.5 Whakatane Whakatane District 2.4 2.3 2.7 Whangamata Thames-Coromandel District 2.0 2.4 2.2 Whangarei Whangarei District 2.2 2.3 2.5 Whitianga Thames-Coromandel District 2.0 2.4 2.2 Winton Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Woodend Waimakariri District 1.8 2.1 2.0 Woodville Tararua District 2.3 2.5 2.9

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Appendix H: TFR of Territorial Authority Area in which Rural Centre located

Rural Centre TA of Rural Centre location 1996 2001 2006 Rural Centre Ahipara Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Akaroa Christchurch City 1.6 1.6 1.7 Rural Centre Athenree Western Bay of Plenty District 2.5 2.4 2.4 Rural Centre Awanui Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Blackball Grey District 2.0 2.2 2.1 Rural Centre Bombay Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Burnham Military Camp Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Rural Centre Cheviot Hurunui District 2.3 2.1 2.1 Rural Centre Clinton Clutha District 2.0 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Clyde Central Otago District 1.6 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Culverden Hurunui District 2.3 2.1 2.1 Rural Centre Cust Waimakariri District 1.8 2.1 2.0 Rural Centre Dobson Grey District 2.0 2.2 2.1 Rural Centre Dunsandel Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Rural Centre Edendale Community Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Egmont Village New Plymouth District 1.9 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Eketahuna Tararua District 2.3 2.5 2.9 Rural Centre Fairlie Mackenzie District 1.8 1.7 1.9 Rural Centre Fox Glacier Westland District 1.8 1.9 1.7 Rural Centre Franz Josef Westland District 1.8 1.9 1.7 Rural Centre Frasertown Wairoa District 2.7 2.8 2.9 Rural Centre Halcombe Manawatu District 1.9 2.2 2.3 Rural Centre Hampden Waitaki District 1.9 1.9 1.9 Rural Centre Hanmer Springs Hurunui District 2.3 2.1 2.1 Rural Centre Harihari Westland District 1.8 1.9 1.7 Rural Centre Haruru Falls Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Havelock Marlborough District 1.9 1.9 2.1 Rural Centre Hector-Ngakawau Buller District 1.8 2.1 2.5 Rural Centre Himatangi Beach Manawatu District 1.9 2.2 2.3 Rural Centre Hunterville Rangitikei District 2.1 2.5 2.0 Rural Centre Island View-Pios Beach Western Bay of Plenty District 2.5 2.4 2.4 Rural Centre Kaeo Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Kaingaroa Forest Rotorua District 2.3 2.3 2.5 Rural Centre Kaitangata Clutha District 2.0 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Kaiwaka Kaipara District 2.5 2.7 2.7 Rural Centre Kakanui Waitaki District 1.9 1.9 1.9 Rural Centre Kaponga South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Rural Centre Karamea Buller District 1.8 2.1 2.5 Rural Centre Karitane Dunedin City 1.5 1.5 1.5 Rural Centre Kaukapakapa Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Kawhia Community Otorohanga District 2.3 2.2 2.4 Rural Centre Kerepehi Hauraki District 2.2 2.4 2.2 Rural Centre Kinloch Taupo District 2.3 2.1 2.2 Rural Centre Kurow Waitaki District 1.9 1.9 1.9 Rural Centre Lake Tekapo Mackenzie District 1.8 1.7 1.9 Rural Centre Lawrence Clutha District 2.0 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Leigh Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Lumsden Community Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Mahurangi Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Makara-Ohariu Wellington City 1.4 1.5 1.5 Rural Centre Maketu Community Western Bay of Plenty District 2.5 2.4 2.4 Rural Centre Mamaku Rotorua District 2.3 2.3 2.5 Rural Centre Manaia South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Rural Centre Manapouri Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Mangakino Taupo District 2.3 2.1 2.2 (cont.)

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Appendix H (cont.): TFR of Territorial Authority Area in which Rural Centre located

Rural Centre TA of Rural Centre location 1996 2001 2006 Rural Centre Manutuke Gisborne District 2.4 2.8 2.8 Rural Centre Matata Whakatane District 2.4 2.3 2.7 Rural Centre Maungatapere Whangarei District 2.2 2.3 2.5 Rural Centre Maungaturoto Kaipara District 2.5 2.7 2.7 Rural Centre Meremere Waikato District 2.3 2.5 2.6 Rural Centre Mt Cook Mackenzie District 1.8 1.7 1.9 Rural Centre Murchison Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Rural Centre Muriwai Beach Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Nightcaps Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Nuhaka Wairoa District 2.7 2.8 2.9 Rural Centre Ohaeawai Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Ohai Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Ohura Ruapehu District 2.4 2.5 2.8 Rural Centre Okaihau Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Okato New Plymouth District 1.9 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Omapere and Opononi Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Omarama Waitaki District 1.9 1.9 1.9 Rural Centre Opua East Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Otane Central Hawke's Bay District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Rural Centre Otautau Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Outram Dunedin City 1.5 1.5 1.5 Rural Centre Owaka Clutha District 2.0 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Paengaroa Western Bay of Plenty District 2.5 2.4 2.4 Rural Centre Palmerston Waitaki District 1.9 1.9 1.9 Rural Centre Parakai Urban Auckland 2.0 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Pareora Timaru District 1.8 1.9 1.9 Rural Centre Patutahi Gisborne District 2.4 2.8 2.8 Rural Centre Pauanui Beach Thames-Coromandel District 2.0 2.4 2.2 Rural Centre Piopio Waitomo District 2.4 2.5 2.7 Rural Centre Rahotu South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Rural Centre Ranfurly Central Otago District 1.6 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Ratana Community Rangitikei District 2.1 2.5 2.0 Rural Centre Rawene Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Reporoa Rotorua District 2.3 2.3 2.5 Rural Centre Riversdale Community Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Riwaka Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Rural Centre Rongotea Manawatu District 1.9 2.2 2.3 Rural Centre Ross Westland District 1.8 1.9 1.7 Rural Centre Roxburgh Central Otago District 1.6 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Ruatoria Gisborne District 2.4 2.8 2.8 Rural Centre Ruawai Kaipara District 2.5 2.7 2.7 Rural Centre Russell Far North District 2.5 2.6 2.9 Rural Centre Sanson Manawatu District 1.9 2.2 2.3 Rural Centre Seddon Marlborough District 1.9 1.9 2.1 Rural Centre Sefton Waimakariri District 1.8 2.1 2.0 Rural Centre Southbridge Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Rural Centre Stirling Clutha District 2.0 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Taitapu Selwyn District 1.6 1.7 2.0 Rural Centre Takapau Central Hawke's Bay District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Rural Centre Taneatua Whakatane District 2.4 2.3 2.7 Rural Centre Tapanui Clutha District 2.0 2.2 2.2 Rural Centre Tapawera Tasman District 1.6 1.8 2.1 Rural Centre Te Horo Kapiti Coast District 1.8 2.3 2.1 (cont.)

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Appendix H (cont.): TFR of Territorial Authority Area in which Rural Centre located

Rural Centre TA of Rural Centre location 1996 2001 2006 Rural Centre Te Kaha Opotiki District 2.7 2.9 2.9 Rural Centre Te Karaka Gisborne District 2.4 2.8 2.8 Rural Centre Te Kopuru Kaipara District 2.5 2.7 2.7 Rural Centre Te Puru-Thornton Bay Thames-Coromandel District 2.0 2.4 2.2 Rural Centre Te Teko Whakatane District 2.4 2.3 2.7 Rural Centre Tirau South Waikato District 2.7 2.5 2.5 Rural Centre Tokomaru Horowhenua District 2.3 2.3 2.6 Rural Centre Tokomaru Bay Gisborne District 2.4 2.8 2.8 Rural Centre Tolaga Bay Gisborne District 2.4 2.8 2.8 Rural Centre Tuai Wairoa District 2.7 2.8 2.9 Rural Centre Tuatapere Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Urenui New Plymouth District 1.9 2.0 2.0 Rural Centre Waharoa Matamata-Piako District 2.3 2.3 2.4 Rural Centre Waiau Hurunui District 2.3 2.1 2.1 Rural Centre Waikuku Waimakariri District 1.8 2.1 2.0 Rural Centre Waimana Whakatane District 2.4 2.3 2.7 Rural Centre Waitati Dunedin City 1.5 1.5 1.5 Rural Centre Waitoa Matamata-Piako District 2.3 2.3 2.4 Rural Centre Warrington Dunedin City 1.5 1.5 1.5 Rural Centre Waverley South Taranaki District 2.1 2.2 2.4 Rural Centre Woodlands Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Rural Centre Wyndham Southland District 1.8 1.9 2.3 Omitted* Rural Centre Pegasus Waimakariri District 1.8 2.1 2.0

*Rural Centre Pegasus was omitted from the correlation analysis because of extremely low numbers until 2006, following which the town grew by over 3000%. This outlier overly biased the analysis

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