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MRCS Decision Support Framework (DSF) and BDP Applications

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MRCS Decision Support Framework (DSF) and BDP Applications The MRC Basin Development Plan MRCS Decision Support Framework (DSF) and BDP applications BDP Library Volume 7 March 2005 Revised September 2005 Mekong River Commission j BDP The MRC Basin Development Plan MRCS Decision Support Framework (DSF) and BDP Applications BDP Library Volume 7 March 2005, revised September 2005 Mekong River Commission Foreword The BDP Library was compiled towards the end of Phase 1 of the BDP Programme. It provides an overview of the BDP formulation, together with information about the planning process and its knowledge base, tools and routines. The library incorporates the essence of more than a hundred technical reports, working papers and other documents. It consists of 15 volumes: 1 The BDP planning process 2 Sub-area analysis and transboundary planning 3 Sub-area studies (including 13 sub – volumes) 4 Scenarios for strategic planning 5 Stakeholder participation 6 Data system and knowledge base 7 MRCS Decision Support Framework (DSF) and BDP applications 8 Economic valuation of water resources (RAM applications) 9 Social and environmental issues and assessments (SIA, SEA) 10 IWRM strategy for the Lower Mekong Basin 11 Monographs. March 2005 12 Project implementation and quality plan 13 National sector reviews 14 Regional sector overviews 15 Training The work was carried out jointly by MRC and the NMCs with comprehensive support and active participation by all MRC programmes and more than 200 national line agencies. Financial and technical support was kindly granted by Australia, Denmark, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. The library has been produced for the purpose of the BDP and is intended for use within the BDP Programme. The work was done from 2002 to 2005, and some information may already have been superseded by new developments and new knowledge. The library does not reflect the opinions of MRC nor the NMCs. It is hoped that the work will contribute to the sustainable development of water resources and water- related resources in support of the MRC vision of 'an economically prosperous, socially just and environmentally sound Mekong River Basin'. Contents Acronyms and abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................vi Acknowledgement.......................................................................................................................................................vii The MRC BDP Team................................................................................................................................................viii Executive summary......................................................................................................................................................ix 1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Origin of document...............................................................................................................................1 1.2 Basis and context ...................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Significance .............................................................................................................................................3 2 Summary of approach .........................................................................................................................................4 3 Flow and water quality modelling for basin planning by Brian Haisman, December 2003, and Hugh Cross, March 2004............................................................7 3.1 Introduction to flow modelling ...........................................................................................................8 3.2 Suggested process for identifying basin planning needs................................................................15 3.3 The socio-economic goals of the 1995 Agreement........................................................................17 3.4: Potentially Impacted Population (PIP) analysis indicators ...........................................................18 3.5 Key environmental issues and indicators.........................................................................................21 3.6 Indicators of relevance to sector programmes................................................................................23 4 Analysis of baseline conditions by Richard Beecham, March 2004..........................................................25 4.1 The baseline concept...........................................................................................................................26 4.2 Components of the DSF Baseline ....................................................................................................27 4.3 Results reported ...................................................................................................................................33 4.4 Results....................................................................................................................................................40 5 Analysis of increased storage capacity by Richard Beecham, May 2004..................................................43 5.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................44 5.2 Basic assumptions................................................................................................................................44 5.3 Method ..................................................................................................................................................44 5.4 Results....................................................................................................................................................50 5.5 Comparison with previous results.....................................................................................................71 6 River flows, dai fish catches & inundated populations by Hugh Cross, June 2004...............................73 6.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................75 6.2 Selection of representative years for spatial analysis ......................................................................75 6.3 Tonle Sap Lake flooding.....................................................................................................................78 6.4 Flooding-fish catch relationships ......................................................................................................85 6.5 Generation of functional relationships from model outputs........................................................91 7 Infrastructural development by Hugh Cross, March 2005 ........................................................................99 7.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................100 7.2 Existing and future structures..........................................................................................................101 7.3 Impact of embankments on flood behaviour ...............................................................................115 7.4 Significance of floodplain changes..................................................................................................127 i 8 Issues and priorities.........................................................................................................................................133 8.1 Opportunities .....................................................................................................................................133 8.2 Constraints..........................................................................................................................................133 9 Solutions............................................................................................................................................................134 10 Findings and recommendations/ lessons learnt .........................................................................................134 11 Relevance...........................................................................................................................................................135 11.1 Relevance for NMCs and/or line agencies....................................................................................135 11.2 Relevance for MRCS and/or BDP Phase 2 ..................................................................................135 12 Concluding general outlook ...........................................................................................................................136 References ..................................................................................................................................................................137 Maps 4.1: Location of monitoring points for reporting simulated flow results 4.2: Location of BDP subareas for reporting Figures 3.1: Example of flood hydrograph 3.2: Example of time-series plot 3.3: Example of flow duration curve 4.1: Response of a basin to inputs 4.2: Monthly flow volumes at monitoring points 5.1: Storage behaviour of Manwan Dam and Dachaoshan
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