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DRAFT Technical Methodology to Estimate GHG Technical Methodology to Estimate Greenhouse Gas Emissions for San Diego Forward: The 2021 Regional Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy from the San Diego Association of Governments Introduction California Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg, 2008) (SB 375) requires that metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) submit a description of the technical methodology they intend to use to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) to the California Air Resources Board (CARB). This technical methodology is submitted in compliance with Government Code § 65080(b)(2)(J)(i) and reflects the best available information as of February 2021. San Diego Forward: The 2021 Regional Plan (2021 Regional Plan) serves as the long-range planning document for the San Diego region, and it also functions as the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and SCS, which will comply with state and federal regulations including SB 375 and federal air quality conformity. This report describes the proposed technical methodology to estimate GHG emissions for the 2021 Regional Plan. Components currently under development are noted in this report. San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) staff will provide information to CARB on those components as they are finalized. SANDAG has completed two Regional Plan/SCS cycles to date, adopting the latest SCS (San Diego Forward: The 2015 Regional Plan) in October 2015. CARB accepted that SANDAG’s first SCS (2050 Regional Transportation Plan) and second SCS (San Diego Forward: The 2015 Regional Plan) if implemented, would meet or exceed the applicable targets of 7% reduction for 2020 and 13% reduction for 2035 relative to 2005. The target achievement for the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan was estimated at 14% for 2020 and 13% for 2035. The target achievement for the 2015 Regional Plan was estimated at 15% for 2020 and 21% for 2035. For the 2021 Regional Plan, slated for adoption in late 2021, the 2035 per capita GHG target has been updated through a CARB action in March 2018. For the San Diego Region, the updated target is now 19% per capita reductionDRAFT by 2035 relative to 2005. The 2021 Regional Plan also will include the new 15% per capita reduction target for 2020, although that date will have passed when SANDAG releases the Draft 2021 Regional Plan in 2021. The 2021 Regional Plan will include strategies and investments that influence travel decisions and land use patterns between 2021 and 2050, a 30-year time horizon. Table 1 displays the proposed analysis years to be used in forecasting GHG emissions for the 2021 Regional Plan. The year 2035 target for the 2021 Regional Plan will be at the midpoint between adoption (2021) and the Regional Plan’s horizon year (2050). An additional 2025 phasing year has been selected. Additional interim years will be modeled for the purposes of meeting federal air quality conformity requirements. Table 1. Analysis Years for the 2021 Regional Plan Year Purpose 2005 Base Year for SB 375 GHG emission-reduction Target Setting 2016 Base Year for 2021 Regional Plan/SCS 2020 SB 375 GHG Emission Reduction Target 2025 Interim Phase Year 2035 SB 375 GHG Emission Reduction Target 2050 Horizon Year Progress Made to Date The development of the 2021 Regional Plan was initiated with a rethinking of the vision for the San Diego region including a reimagining of mobility solutions to be included in the Regional Plan. The vision that was subsequently developed was shaped by five interrelated strategies for mobility, collectively known as the 5 Big Moves. The strategies that comprise the 5 Big Moves are Complete Corridors, Transit Leap, Mobility Hubs, Flexible Fleets, and a next-generation transportation operating system known as the Next OS. In short, these investments are being planned to achieve vastly more efficient and accessible major corridors of travel, a completely new high-speed and high-capacity public transit network, a new network of Mobility Hubs where people and multiple mobility options come together, Flexible Fleets of vehicles that offer people quick mobility options when and where they need them, and a regionwide digital platform that unifies the 5 Big Moves. The development of the new vision for the San Diego Region was created in three phases: Phase 1: Concept Development The general concept for the Vision was informed significantly by early work on the 2019 Regional Plan, which led to the 2019 Federal Regional Transportation Plan (2019 Federal RTP). This work included reviewing case studies and best practices, consulting with transportation operators in the region, interviewing private-sector providers, and gathering other perspectives, including significant community input gained through two outreach programs in 2018. Insights gained from these previous efforts—in conjunction with more recent work—have served as the foundation for the 2021 Regional Plan. SANDAG also conducted a seriesDRAFT of focus groups, each with a diverse cross-section of the region’s residents, to gather feedback on how each of the 5 Big Moves could improve participants’ lives. In this sense, the Vision reflects the views and opinions of real people from communities throughout the region. SANDAG designed the Vision based on both data analysis and what people told the agency in these focus groups. This process is known as Human-Centered Design. For example, individuals in focus groups were asked what they thought about SANDAG’s ideas for Flexible Fleets and then what they thought would make Flexible Fleets a viable alternative to driving alone. Many residents said they would view a Flexible Fleet service as a real alternative to driving if it could get them from their home to a public transit station within ten minutes. SANDAG also went on a roadshow throughout the region and hosted visiting hours at SANDAG in the Vision Lab that allowed staff to engage with community organizations, individuals, and groups to communicate and gather feedback on the 5 Big Moves. SANDAG professionals relied on all of this feedback as they built the Vision. 2 February 2021 Meanwhile, a Vision Advisory Panel was convened to gain insights from private industry leaders about how emerging technology might enhance personal mobility and how public–private partnerships might accelerate their adoption in the region. The Panel consisted of executives and thought leaders in the fields of wireless communications, intelligent transportation systems, original equipment manufacturing (auto, bus, truck), data analytics, artificial intelligence and automation, fleet-management systems, and venture funding based in Southern California. Phase 2: Network Development Once SANDAG developed a conceptual idea for what a future regional transportation network might look like, it was time to actually build the network. This required a series of iterative analyses in which data related to population, employment, and demographics were repeatedly analyzed in order to reach the best answer to a given question—where a new commuter rail line might be needed most, or where to situate a Mobility Hub, for example. Decisions about how to build each network were based on data analysis as well as feedback from residents, professional judgment, and SANDAG’s deep knowledge of the region’s diverse communities. SANDAG gathered data from numerous sources, including surveys by the federal government on the location of employees and employers, the U.S. Census Bureau, land use information from local jurisdictions, individual traveler data from cellular devices, goods-movement data from trucking and other commercial transport operations, and citizen feedback. Data was primarily analyzed using the geographic information system (GIS) tool, ArcGIS, and geospatial statistical methods. GIS in transportation planning can take numerous sources of data and visualize them on maps to model traffic patterns, plan new routes and services, and assess the environmental impacts of new transportation infrastructure. ArcGIS is a GIS tool maintained by the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), and all SANDAG’s geospatial analyses use the ArcGIS platform. Phase 3: Network Refinement The final steps in the development of the Vision for the 2021 Regional Plan were to refine critical elements of the network and to verify that the Vision network would meet future mobility needs. With the Transit Leap and Mobility Hubs networks developed, a process known as a propensity analysis was conducted to ensure that each service would be located where it would be needed most based on the area’s demographics and how people in that particular area travel. Transit Leap and Complete Corridors networks were evaluated to ensure that sufficient freeway and transit capacity would be available to DRAFTmeet future travel demands on every major corridor in the region.1 Schedule Working toward a late 2021 adoption date, the 2021 Regional Plan has achieved the following interim milestones. Future work will be developed based on the activities surrounding the development of the transportation vision (noted as “anticipated”). • On February 22, 2019, the Board of Directors unanimously approved an action plan to develop a bold new vision for San Diego Forward: The 2021 Regional Plan. • On April 26, 2019, staff introduced the 5 Big Moves as key strategies for developing a transportation system that provides safe, convenient, equitable, and attractive travel choices 1 More information about the development of the Regional Transportation Vision, including the
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