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ELECTRIC VEHICLES and the CALIFORNIA GRID a R EPOR T BY: Anand R

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ELECTRIC VEHICLES and the CALIFORNIA GRID a R EPOR T BY: Anand R ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND THE CALIFORNIA GRID A R EPOR T BY: Anand R. Gopal Julia Szinai P RODUCED BY: Next 10 JUL Y 20 1 8 We would like to acknowledge the contributions of Max Baumhefner (NRDC), Eric Cutter (Energy + Environmental Economics), and Alan Jenn (Institute of Transportation Systems, UC Davis) for excellent, constructive and detailed reviews of the brief. The authors would like to thank Colin Sheppard and Nikit Abhyankar of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory who supported vehicle grid analysis that was used in this brief. NEXT 10 TABLE OF CONTENTS | 3 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 II. INTRODUCTION 7 California’s Mobility – Infrastructure – Charging – Grid Nexus 8 III. MOBILITY TRENDS 11 Historical trends in the United States 13 Automated Vehicles 14 Mobility-on-Demand Services 15 Electric Medium-Duty Vehicles and Heavy-Duty Vehicles 17 IV. CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE DEPLOYMENT POLICIES 18 Types of Chargers 20 Historical and Current Charging Infrastructure Deployment 20 Charing Infrastructure Costs 23 Investment Pathways to Support Charging Infrastructure Expansion 25 ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING STRATEGIES AND GRID SERVICES 29 Unmanaged Charging Behavior and Managed Charging Strategies 30 Grid Services from Managed Charging Strategies 31 Managed Charging Experiences to Date 31 V. ELECTRIC VEHICLE GRID SERVICES AND IMPACTS IN CALIFORNIA 36 Types of Impacts 37 Grid Scenarios with Increased Stationary Storage & Distributed 41 Energy Resources VI. POLICY CONSIDERATIONS 43 Goals, Metrics, and Policy Recommendations 46 VII. CONCLUSION 48 VIII. APPENDIX 51 NEXT 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 4 I. Executive Summary TRANSPORTATION is the single largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the state of California, as in many other ma- jor economies throughout the world. While California has seen marked success in decarbonizing its electricity sector, emissions from transportation have not seen a similar decline and, despite having the strongest clean transportation policies in the nation, have increased slightly in recent years. In fact, these emissions in- creased 1.8 percent between 2015 and 2016 despite an overall emissions reduction of 2.8 percent. In order to achieve the steep GHG emissions reduction goals set forth by landmark climate policies Assembly Bill 32 and Senate Bill 32, California must en- sure the transportation sector delivers significant emissions cuts. NEXT 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 5 To that end, a variety of policies have been implemented • Transportation trends towards automation and to help electrify the transportation sector – from passen- increased usage of mobility services like ride-hailing ger vehicles to high speed rail. In his final “State of the could rapidly expand the share of electric vehicles State” address, Governor Jerry Brown announced a new on the road, further increasing electricity demand. electrification target: getting 5 million zero emission ve- » The estimated share of total light-duty vehicle hicles on the road by 2030. VMT from ride-hailing vehicles is growing rapidly As vehicle manufacturers and nations around the world nationwide - currently about 6 percent in the move from internal-combustion engines to zero-emission U.S. – and could double from 10 percent to 20 vehicles (ZEVs), vehicle automation and greater utiliza- percent of total VMT between 2018 and 2020. tion of mobility-on-demand services like ride-hailing are » If these companies move toward PEVs, critically further disrupting transportation systems. As the state important to decarbonize transportation, charg- looks to add hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles to ing infrastructure needs and grid impacts would the grid each year, California’s electricity system will need increase substantially. While ride-sharing compa- to evolve to accommodate shifting demand patterns nies are expected to complete 12 billion rides this and increased electrification of transportation. year in the U.S., only one percent of the estimated Part of a series of briefs analyzing key issues facing 334 million total trip miles on the Uber and Lyft the future of California’s grid, this brief investigates platforms in California were in an electric vehicle (in trends in the electrification of the transportation sector Q3 2017). along with mobility and charging infrastructure trends • The growth of EVs in California will require upgrades to determine the impacts policy leaders should be to the energy system, but the long-run costs are aware of and the strategies that can optimize grid per- likely to be low, when compared to the benefits. formance as more electric vehicles hit the road. » As PEV adoption levels grow, there will be impacts to both the distribution system as well as the bulk power system. To date, the actual cost of distribu- Key takeaways include: tion system upgrades as a result of added PEVs has • Electricity demand will increase only modestly as electric been small: in 2017, PEVs caused only about 0.01 percent of total distribution system upgrade costs. vehicles (EV) sales surge. » A detailed analysis of the grid system and geo- » California currently has about 369,000 plug-in graphic distribution of future PEV sales found that electric vehicles (PEVs)—including both fully battery the annual PEV-related distribution costs through electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric ve- 2030 are estimated to be only about one percent hicles—on the road but is predicted to reach more of the combined distribution revenue requirement than five million EVP s on the road by 2030. of the three IOUs and SMUD (Sacramento Munici- » The California Energy Commission forecasts that pal Utility District). 3.9 million PEVs will add about 15,500 GWh of » While upgrade costs to these systems as a result of charging demand, equivalent to about five percent added PEVs have been minimal thus far, that could of California’s current total annual energy load. change with greater adoption rates. NEXT 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 6 • New management strategies can help optimize the To ensure that California can meet its ZEV goals while potential benefits and minimize the potential risks maintaining an affordable and reliable electricity that added EV demand will present. system, certain policy levers might be considered to » Managed charging programs could alleviate optimize this transition. These include: stress on the distribution grid, lower wholesale • Ensure that autonomous vehicles and mobility-on- operating costs, and serve as a resource to help demand services do not lead to increased GHG integrate more intermittent renewable energy. emissions while working to increase the overall » Smart charging could deliver significant benefits: level of electrification of the transportation sector. the authors’ analysis found that when 2.5 million • Increase the accessibility of charging infrastructure, PEVs were added to the system, grid dispatch which is paramount to increasing EV adoption rates. found that smart charging of all the vehicles could avoid 50 percent of incremental power system » Focus financing and support to increase the operating costs and reduce renewable energy deployment of fast chargers to support the elec- curtailment by 27 percent annually, relative to trification of medium-, heavy-duty and ridehailing when the charging of the same number of PEVs is vehicles. left unmanaged. » Focus incentives on lowering the installation and » According to results from the CPUC’s Integrated equipment costs for multifamily and public charg- Resource Planning model, flexible PEV charging ing stations. can yield total system resource cost savings of » Create a centralized, public database that tracks $100 - 200 million dollars per year and a reduc- the cost, location, and utilization of home, multi- tion in renewable energy curtailment, compared to family, work, and public chargers by power level. unmanaged PEV charging. • Increase participation in existing and upcoming » EV batteries could provide a source of energy load management opportunities such as time-of-use storage to the grid, and the CPUC should con- (TOU) rates and smart charging programs. sider recognizing this value. In practice, due to » Design PEV-specific TOU rates with longer off-peak the high value placed on mobility by PEV users, periods and bigger price differentials. relying on EV batteries alone for grid storage is fraught with risk. The precipitous decline in bat- » Conduct more smart charging pilots. tery prices makes it increasingly feasible for sta- This brief is intended to help provide background on tionary battery storage to cost effectively provide how mobility, charging infrastructure, and energy man- distribution system support, load-shifting, and ancillary services, without the risks of managing a agement trends could influence the future manage- highly valuable mobile battery asset. ment of PEVs on California’s grid. The state’s energy- related agencies and regulators, utilities, automakers, aggregators/demand response providers, and schedul- ing coordinators will need to work together to enable PEV grid services. NEXT 10 INTRODUCTION | 7 I. Introduction THE widespread electrification of the trans- able energy, and mobility paradigms, planning portation sector can enable oil independence for interactions between vehicles, charging and lower greenhouse gas emissions.1 Simul- infrastructure, and the electric grid at both taneously increasing the share of renewable the distribution and bulk power system lev- energy on the grid can help meet economy- els will become both increasingly important
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