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Homicide Declines, 600-2060 AD: a Generalising Framework

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Homicide Declines, 600-2060 AD: a Generalising Framework Homicide Declines, 600-2060 AD: A Generalising Framework Manuel Eisner Institute of Criminology University of Cambridge 16 Theories of the Crime Decline 1. Incarceration 2. Better policing (Sherman, Zimring) 3. Demographic trends (Blumstein) 4. Abortion 5. Lead/environmental neurotoxins (Nevin) 6. Unemployment, consumer sentiment, 7. Inflation (Rosenfeld) 8. Self-control (Eisner/Pinker) 9. Psycho-pharmaceuticals (Finkelhor) 10. End of crack/cocaine epidemic 11. State legitimacy (Roth/LaFree) 12. Divorce – family stability 13. More effective public health/crime prevention policy (Finkelhor) 14. Changing norms and values 15. Dissipation of effects of cultural revolution (Pinker) 16. Technical Crime Control (Clarke et al.) Methodological Approaches 1. National Case Studies – One period, one country: – Typical answers: Compstat; drugs/crack epidemic, abortion, incapacitation 2. International Trend Analyses – Several places, on period – Typical answers: anomie (Messner/Rosenfeld), loss of legitimacy (LaFree), Postmodernity (Young). 3. Historical Cross-cultural Generalising Perspective – All violence declines, at all times, in all places. Is there a limited number of universal mechanisms behind all major declines of interpersonal violence in all societies at all times? i.e. How do societies become less conflict-ridden and homicidal places? A Homicide Scale Violence as Politics 1000 > 200 per 100,000 • Unrelated men in public space Iraq after Invasion • Organized and functional • > 100 Civil War South African Townships Private justice & revenge • Violent enterpreneurs Ciudad Juarez, Mexico • Fights over goods and territories 100 10-100 Violent Societies 10 1-10 Semi-Pacified Societies Murders per 100,000 pop 1 < 0.3 per 100,000 • Large % domestic, female vict. Japan in 1970-90s • Disorganized and disfunctional < 1 Pacified England, 1920s • Individual pathologies Societies Denmark, 1950s • Marginal groups 0.1 Violence as Pathology Buss, D. M. and T. K. Shackelford (1997). "Human aggression in The Evolutionary Perspective evolutionary psychological perspective." Clinical Psychology Review 17: 605-619. What purposes does violence amongst men serve? -> adaptionist, strategic, functional view informed by evolutionary theory (Archer, Pellegrini, Pinker, Buss/Shackelford, Tremblay) • Proactive instrumental violence Violence as a means of gaining access to scarce resources, particularly goods, power/status, sex – Examples: raids, robberies, private taxation, piracy, staged fights, attacks on same-sex competitors. • Reactive retaliatory violence Violence as a means of defending against aggressors, producing protection, maintaining norms of reciprocity – Examples: vendetta, revenge killing, vigilantism. Under what circumstances does killing (a group member) becomes a strategically less attractive option? Some hypotheses: – A high availability of law reduces the chances that people perceive the need to use violence as a means of self-help (retaliation and revenge) – A high legitimacy of social order increases the chances that people believe they can fulfil desires in cooperation with others – A high level of protection from risks increases the chances of investing into building up durable relationships – A cultivation of self-restraint and manners reduces the chances for friction resulting in violence Decline 1 Elite Violence, 600-1800 AD Eisner, Manuel (2011). The Decline of Regicide in an Evolutionary Perspective, British Journal of Criminology, 2011. Why? • The involvement of elites in intra-societal violence is not a constant. • Theorists such as Elias, Cooney, Black expect a decline in elite violence. What? • All monarchs of all major dynasties across all of Europe from 600 to 1800 AD (N = 1820). • Coded for cause of death and further particulars. 50 Trend in Regicide Rates, 600 Rates, in Regicide Trend 1000 Rate per1500 100,0002000 2500 3000 500 0 - Year Periods Year 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-749 800-849 850-899 900-949 950-999 1000-1049 1050-1099 1100-1149 1150-1199 1200-1249 1250-1299 1300-1349 1350-1399 = 0.4598 R² 1400-1449 1450-1499 - 1500-1549 1800 1550-1599 1600-1649 1650-1699 1700-1749 AD 1750-1799 Note: (person years) (person 100,000 1 per Population General (ruler per 1060 100,000 Regicide Rate Average - years) T oday Regicide Rates by Region, 600-1800 AD 4500 East: Byzantium, 4000 Ottoman Empire, Russia, Bulgaria 3500 North 3000 Scandinavian Monarchies, England, Scotland 2500 All East 2000 North West&South West&South All others 1500 Rate per 100,000 MonarchYears 1000 500 0 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th Why did Regicide Decline? • Fewer internal rivals with sufficient military power to challenge royal authority. • Decreasing probability of successful acquisition of power through usurpation/murder. • Power transition becomes more law-bound (e.g. inheritance laws). • Change in elites’ conduct of life (“from warriors to courtiers”). • Higher stability and legitimacy of state institutions. Decline 2 Homicide in Europe, 1300-2000 • Eisner, M. (2003) Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime, Crime and Justice. • Johnson, E and E. Monkkonen (eds.) (1996). The Civilization of Crime; Violence in Town and Country since the Middle Ages. Urbana: Illinois University Press. • Spierenburg, P. (2008) A History of Murder. Cambridge: Polity Press. Homicide Rates across Europe, 1300-2000 80 70 60 50 England Netherlands 40 Scandinavia 30 Germany Italy 20 Homicide perRate 100,000 10 0 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 See Eisner (2003). Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime, Crime and Justice Why did Homicide Decline? • Increasingly stable state monopoly of power – Elias (1978 [1939]) The civilizing process. • Growing protection decreases necessity of violence as self-help – Black (1983). Crime as Social Control. • Interdependence and social complexity increase benefits of self-control – Elias (1978 [1939]) The civilizing process. • Disciplining institutions promote impulse control – Krieken (1989). Violence, Self-Discipline and Modernity: Beyond the Civilizing Process • Growing legitimacy and integration of state Regicide and Homicide 250 200 England 150 Netherlands Scandinavia Germany Rate per 100000 100 Italy Regicide 50 0 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Any way to test a theory empirically? How about this hypothesis: The decline was a result of regular frontal-lobe training in self- control by means of reading books? Book Production in Europe 600 500 Great Britain 400 Ireland Belgium Netherlands 300 Germany Switzerland Italy Books per 1000 per 1000 Books population 200 Spain Sweden 100 0 1454 - 1500 1501 - 1550 1551 - 1600 1601 - 1650 1651 - 1700 1701 - 1750 1751 - 1800 Source: Baten, J., & Van Zanden, J. L. (2008). Book production and the onset of modern economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 13(3), 217-235. The Books-Murder Connection, 1500-1800 45 40 35 30 25 20 Murder 15 Homicides per per population 100,000 Homicides 10 5 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Books per 1000 Population Note: All available pairs of 50-year estimates of book production and homicide rates, 1500-1800 N = 46. … this looks like an elasticity The Books-Murder Connection, 1500-1800 100 y = 28.804x-0.363 R² = 0.4464 10 Murder Power (Murder) Homicides per per population 100,000 Homicides 1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Books per 1000 Population Note: All available pairs of 50-year estimates of book production and homicide rates, 1500-1800 N = 46. Decline 3 Homicide in the USA, 1600-1800 Roth, Roland (2009). American Homicide. Cambridge (Mass): Belknap. Empirical Observation: Parallel to the development in Europe, Homicide rates among unrelated adults in New England, New Netherlands, Virginia and Maryland fell from over 100 per 100,000 to about 1-5 per 100,000 between the early 1600s and around 1790. The Core Roth Hypothesis • Both in the USA and in Europe there are four correlates of declining homicide amongst unrelated male adults. 1. The belief that government is stable and that its legal and judicial institutions are unbiased and will redress wrongs and protect lives and property. 2. A feeling of trust in government and the officials who run it, and a belief in their legitimacy. 3. Patriotism, empathy, and fellow feeling arising from racial, religious, or political solidarity. 4. The belief that the social hierarchy is legitimate, that one’s position in society is satisfactory and that one can command the respect of others without resorting to violence. Decline 4 The Victorian Success Story • National series available in many countries • Victorian decline of homicide much studied by early generation of criminologists (Boschi, Durkheim, Ferri). The Victorian ideal of the The bad drunk husband family Homicide Trends, 1840-2005 12 10 Austria Spain Italy 8 Switzerland Belgium France 6 Germany Netherlands Denmark 4 Norway Sweden Ireland England and Wales 2 Scotland 0 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Explaining the Victorian Success Story • Cultivating character – Wiener, Martin (2004,) Men of Blood. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press • Social/national/political Integration • Rise of control bureaucracies – Emsley, Clive (2007) Crime, Police and Penal Policy: European Experiences, 1750-1940. • Temperance, self-control movements – Carter-Wood, J. (2004), Shadow of our Refinement. • Elimination of collectivist honour (i.e. self-help) cultures. – Durkheim, Emile (1957 [1899] Professional Ethics and Civic Morals – Gallant, Decline 5 The Homicide Decline Since the Early 1990s • Are some of the mechanisms associated with
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