diversity Article Predicting the Future Distribution of Ara rubrogenys, an Endemic Endangered Bird Species of the Andes, Taking into Account Trophic Interactions Alain Hambuckers 1,* , Simon de Harenne 1,2 , Eberth Rocha Ledezma 3, Lilian Zúñiga Zeballos 1,4 and Louis François 2 1 Behavioural Biology Lab, Unit of Research SPHERES, University of Liège, Quai Van Beneden 22, ,
[email protected] (S.d.H.);
[email protected] (L.Z.Z.) 2 Modelling of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles, Unit of Research SPHERES, University of Liège, Sart Tilman, 4000 Liège, Belgium;
[email protected] 3 Centro de Biodiversidad y Genética, Facultad de Ciencas y Tecnología, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Cochabamba, Bolivia;
[email protected] 4 Museo de Historia Natural Alcide d’Orbigny, Cochabamba, Bolivia * Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used with climate only to predict animal distribution changes. This approach however neglects the evolution of other components of the niche, like food resource availability. SDMs are also commonly used with plants. This also suffers limitations, notably an inability to capture the fertilizing effect of the rising CO2 concentration strengthening resilience to water stress. Alternatively, process-based dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) respond to CO2 concentration. To test the impact of the plant modelling method to model Citation: Hambuckers, A.; de plant resources of animals, we studied the distribution of a Bolivian macaw, assuming that, under Harenne, S.; Rocha Ledezma, E.; future climate, DVMs produce more conservative results than SDMs. We modelled the bird with an Zúñiga Zeballos, L.; François, L.