Journal of Quantitative Criminology https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09406-z ORIGINAL PAPER Crime Feeds on Legal Activities: Daily Mobility Flows Help to Explain Thieves’ Target Location Choices Guangwen Song1 · Wim Bernasco2,3 · Lin Liu1,4 · Luzi Xiao1 · Suhong Zhou5 · Weiwei Liao5 © The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Objective According to routine activity theory and crime pattern theory, crime feeds on the legal routine activities of ofenders and unguarded victims. Based on this assumption, the present study investigates whether daily mobility fows of the urban population help predict where individual thieves commit crimes. Methods Geocoded tracks of mobile phones are used to estimate the intensity of popula- tion mobility between pairs of 1616 communities in a large city in China. Using data on 3436 police-recorded thefts from the person, we apply discrete choice models to assess whether mobility fows help explain where ofenders go to perpetrate crime. Results Accounting for the presence of crime generators and distance to the ofender’s home location, we fnd that the stronger a community is connected by population fows to where the ofender lives, the larger its probability of being targeted. Conclusions The mobility fow measure is a useful addition to the estimated efects of dis- tance and crime generators. It predicts the locations of thefts much better than the presence of crime generators does. However, it does not replace the role of distance, suggesting that ofenders are more spatially restricted than others, or that even within their activity spaces they prefer to ofend near their homes. Keywords Crime location choice · Theft from the person · Mobility · Routine activities · China * Lin Liu
[email protected] 1 Center of Geo-Informatics for Public Security, School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China 2 Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), P.O.