Inclusive Growth: The impact of national infrastructure on rural urbanism Dominique Trual Molintas, Jesus Peralta, Tchaika Runas Movement for Development, Ytt Quaesitum Research author@.com, [email protected]

Abstract— This instrument constitutes good explanation of the II. GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS developments in San Rafael as regards its integration San Rafael Bulacan is an hour 45 minute drive from the and advancement, by way of National Infrastructure resulting inclusive growth. Given the Local Government discourse of urban ’ National Capital Region via NLEX Balintawak agglomeration for the amalgamation of cities as a rudimentary Toll Plaza to Balagtas Exit, proceeding into Bustos via theoretical construct, the implements of this research looks into Plaridel Bypass Road. From the Bustos Municipal Hall turn spatial growth as an inevitable phenomenon in the forecast right into via the Bustos Bridge then right turn accessibility. headed to Talacsan on the Baliuag San Rafael Utilising a scenario based approach by application of the Road. Other entry points are from NLEX-Balintawak Realistic Evaluation as the methodology to determine the demand for homes. The findings state that population densities proceeding towards NLEX Santa Rita Exit via the Dona are raised with rural urbanism transitions in the passage of time: Remedios Trinidad Highway towards the Pan-Philippine By random integer of three scenarios, the demand for homes in Highway in San Rafael; or from the - Baliuag Rd on year 2020 is at 30,706 homes and 2025 at 40,413 homes. There is to the Pan-Philippine Highway turning into the Balubaran a potential high demand of 69,474 homes when the New Street continuing to Viola Highway into San Rafael, Bulacan. Airport comes into operation. The figure bases on the simulation Situated on the northern region of the province, of scenarios with no inventories other than stated herein. The document highlights the importance of National bounded by the provinces of Quezon and , the Infrastructure in the advancement of community living, and municipality completes a land area of 16525 hectares. San characterises further the limitations of the rural communities Rafael is predominantly an agricultural town comprised of having very little influence over its natural growth. 34 barangays [1]. San Rafael is a first class municipality in the province of National Infrastructure, Inclusive Growth, Rural Urbanism, Bulacan, with a population size of 94,655 [2]. Integrated Cities, Inclusive Growth, Realistic Evaluation, 1 Demand for homes III. METHODOLOGY

Using a scenario based approach to determine the demand I. INTRODUCTION for homes; the methodology is an application of the 1997 Pawson–Tilley CMO model [3] referred as the realistic In the dimension of inclusive growth, the cone of evaluation. CMO is a diagnostic tool for evaluating how plausibility within the municipality of San Rafael is mechanisms produce an outcome in the specific given characterised by three drivers: The impact of national context. infrastructure on the municipality, Leadership of the Local A. Realistic Evaluation Government, and the level of integration with neighbouring municipalities and provinces. The science of realistic evaluation states that any Projects of national and provincial scale of strategic mechanism crafted prescribes a purpose to which change priority are: the Bulacan Bulk Water Supply Project, the Big shall occur [4]. The framework outlines context to which Rice Farm Project, Agro-Industrial Hub, Bulacan Agro the prescription or mechanism occurs then determines if there is a clear relationship between a project or state Commodities Exchange Centre, New Manila International infrastructure, and its outcome by identifying a measurable Airport, North–South Railway Project or NSRP, San change. Rafael– Expressway, Plaridel Bypass Road or CMO is context (+) mechanism (=) outcome. Arterial Road Bypass Project Phase II, and e-Magsasaka. Context shall situate the reasons why a particular The key mechanisms construed in this study are: External instruments or intervention or mechanism results linkages and internal circulation routes, SAFDZ or the measureable change. The CMO chart discourses Strategic agriculture and fishery development zone, Strong measurable change through descriptive or correlational cooperative enterprise, Export performance: Garments and research methods [5]. The purpose of correlational study is textile export, Neighbor industrial estates, Tourist to describe the relationship between mechanism and the destinations, Mineral and quarry resources, Location of outcome, while the descriptive research methods offer a higher education institutions. Refer to Appendices for full way of quantifying effect [6] through prior published case detail and appreciation. studies or surveys, interviews with key resource persons and naturalistic observation gathered from various secondary sources, discussion reports and journals.

1 This Paper was fully funded by PDP Properties Inc.

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B. Scenario Analysis and Forecasting Rail initial connection to Tutuban, the Plaridel Bypass Road Scenario planning methodology is focused on generating and the San Rafael Cabanatuan Expressway. a range of scenarios for the future [7]. Contrasting This scenario characterises the economic transitions in techniques are used in order to challenge established the municipality, presenting the influences of the rail assumptions and stimulate creativity [8]. linkages into the capital city centre and the benefits of the One way of understanding the process of change and bypass road. The simulation shows an increase in municipal sorts of influence is to study the historical development in population by 56 percent or an increase in the demand for an area over the same period in the past as is intended for homes by 1,919 units. study in the future [9]. It is often contended that scenario The resulting alterations in the economic context are development is different from forecasting, but the analysis observed in terms of household income wherein no presented here reconsiders how it is converging with household earns below 40,000 pesos. Fourteen percent of contemporary forecasting practice in a more integrative HH earn within the income band 40,000-59,999 pesos; 22 perspective on using scenarios to support strategic planning percent of HH earn within the income band 60,000 and [10]. 99,999 pesos; one third or 36 percent of households earn within the income band 100, 000 and 250,000 pesos; and 38 percent of HH earn above 250,000. 11,799 HH represent wage earners or salaried employees, 10,557 HH do entrepreneur activity and 8694HH have other income sources representing the informal sector. Total demand for homes is 31,051 units which develop from Scenario One.

C. Scenario Three: San Rafael as the next wave city by Figure 1: Cone of Plausibility 2025, the wildcard (Van Der Linde 2015) The third scenario ushers the wildcard of San Rafael as IV. SCENARIOS the Next Wave City positioning as the IT Corridor and assumes inclusive growth from the impact of both Clark A. Scenario One: San Rafael as a supportive community Airport gateway city and the New Manila International with baseline growth patterns Airport; apart the Eastern Bulacan Expressway NLEE The first scenario is the worn concept of San Rafael as a Alignment. supportive community with baseline growth. The The wildcard scenario characterises the economic population growth pattern shows the effects of aging and transitions in the municipality as the Next Wave City, generational changes in the context of its existing presenting the influences of the International Airport and resources. This scenario shows growth influences at a very the interstate freeway NLEEx. The simulation shows an natural pace. The differential from the baseline forecast increase in municipal population by twofold or an increase population growth and demand is just 691 HH more for in the demand by 2025 for 69,474 homes. 2020. The economic representation of these households The baseline of scenario one uses the forecast of state five percent of household earn 40,000 pesos; 14 households in 2025 at 39,684 units and not that of 2020. percent of households earn between 40,000 and 60,000 Economic transitions state that there is no household pesos; 13 percent of households earn between 60000 and earning below 40,000 pesos. Eight per cent of households 100000 pesos; 29 percent of households earn between earn within the income band 40,000 and 59,999 pesos; and 100,000-150,000 pesos; and 38 percent of households earn 11 per cent of households earn within the income band above 250,000 pesos2. 60,000 and 99,999 pesos. Nearly one third or 38 percent of The total demand for homes is 29,822 in 2025 is just 691 households earn within the income band 100,000 and units more than raw data population growth, and develops 250,000 pesos, and close to half of household population or from improvements due education and tourism related 43 percent of HH earn above 250,000 pesos. jobs. 32,441 HH comprise the wage earners or salaried employees, 23,621HH do entrepreneur activity and 13,200 HH have other income sources representing the informal B. Scenario Two: San Rafael as a community that makes sector. sense of external linkages Migration inter-province or other regions account for Scenario Two sits a plausible alternate that takes 11,719 HH, recognising the total demand for homes at Scenario One further in the concept: A community that 69,474 units. makes sense of the tangible linkages of national infrastructure to the municipality. That is the North South V. REALISTIC EVALUATION The table below explains the context in each scenario,

2 the mechanisms that have caused upon change in the 2020 forecast on bordering municipalities: San Idelfonso 35,080, Angat 21,361, Bustos 23,670, Baliuag 40,875, San Luis 58,922, Candaba 23,247 socio- economic conditions of the community that constitute the outcome, let alone inclusive growth.

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CONTEXT MECHANISM OUTCOME: INCLUSIVE GROWTH A. Scenario One: San Rafael as a supportive community with baseline growth patterns

1.1 The forecast 2020 HH size of San 1.1. Gorby Dimalanta, Aiah Sarmiento 1.1. The 20 percent raised income by Rafael is 30716. One percent or 257 HH and Aaron David first Innovation Olympics 'e-Magsasaka’ sees to inclusive growth for earn below 40000 pesos annually. Three in San Rafael, Bulacan for an online at least 100 HH away the income bracket percent of the population or 1030 HH earn database platform dubbed 'e-Magsasaka' 40 000 pesos up the next upper income between 40000 and 59999 pesos. Twelve to eliminate middlemen in marketing quartile4. percent or 3630 HH earn between 60000 crops. Farmer profits are forecast to and 99999 pesos. Forty nine percent or increase by 20 percent and keep prices at 1.2. Big Rice Farm project of Bulacan 14985 earn between 100000 and 249999 an affordable level [23]. sees inclusive growth for 40HH of the pesos. Thirty five percent or 10814 HH earn 257HH with household income below above 250000 pesos [11]. 1.2. Big Rice Farm project of Bulacan in 40000 pesos transitioning these HH to the cooperation with SL Agritech Corporation next quartile between 40000 and 59999 1.2 The services sector account for 57 has the goal of achieving 100 percent rice pesos. Effectually HH earning below 40000 percent of workers, 25 percent of workers self-sufficiency in two years. For San Rafael pesos as family income, drops to 0.71 is in agriculture and related industries, and 35 percent of farmers 40/113 hectares and percent. These HH now earn on the 18 percent are in manufacturing. The 29 percent of total land area into rice average between 40000 and 59999 pesos, labour force participation rate for Region III 50/174.5 hectares3. accounting for 3.48 percent of population. is 94 percent [12]. 1.3. A high school graduate earns 51 1.3. Caused upon education inclusive 1.3 In the dimension of education and percent more than those without growth, 5283 HH move out of the income income: Gender and age distribution state completion. Those who have some college band range of 100000 to 249999 pesos, 17.2 percent of population to fall within units earn 5.4 percent more than high transitioned to the income band over the age band 15-24 with 11percent men school graduates. A college degree holder 250,000 pesos5. and 6.2 percent women. Using the average earns 18.8 percent more than those household size, this identifies about 5283 without completion; and 30 percent more 1.4. Caused upon OSY the equivalent HH. than the high school graduate; and 96.5 one every ten Filipino youth are out of percent or just about double the wages of school, this is tantamount 528 HH are 1.4 There is only one college in San those without high school completion [24]. retracted from the income band over Rafael that is listed under CHED, which is 250000 pesos and reinstated in the income the RCC Colegio De San Rafael for single 1.4. One in every ten Filipinos aged 6 to band 100000-249,999 pesos. course offering BS Business Administration 24 years is an out of school child and [13] youth. The most common reasons were 1.5. Caused upon the high cost of living marriage or family matters 42.3 percent, expenses away from home and the lack of Nine of twelve High Schools offer TVL high cost of education or financial concerns universities within the municipality, using Specializations that are good enough for 20.2 percent, and lack of personal interest the median completion rate between employment: Bulacan Polytechnic 19.7 percent. Among females, marriage or Government and private universities of 63 College-San Rafael, Carlos F. Gonzales HS, family matters was the main reason for not percent. Given so, 37 percent of the Erhard Science College-Bulacan Inc., attending school with 59.3 percent, while it baseline 5283HH, tantamount 1955 HH is Fernandez College of Arts and is the lack of personal interest among retracted from the income band earner Technology-Technical High School, Lydia D. males with 36.5 percent [25]. over 250000 pesos and reinstated in the Villangca Trade School, Maronquillo income band 100,000-249,999 pesos. National High School, Microlink Institute of 1.5. ADB working paper series states: Science and Technology-San Rafael, College graduates tend to earn twice the 1.6. Cause upon tourism related jobs at Salapungan HS, San Rafael Nat'l Trade undergraduates, and three times more 5.2M in 2016 at a regional growth rate of School, Sanctuario of St. Maria Theresa than high school graduates [26]. 0.5 percent forecasts 144 jobs at School, St. Luke's School of San Rafael, Inc., conservative 30 HH 6 . 30 HH are now St. Paul College, San Rafael. 1.6. Studies on higher education transitioned from earnings under 40000 expenses borne by parents find the student pesos up the income quartile above 40000 1.5 Tourist destinations in San Rafael Living expenditures: Lodging, food, pesos but below 60 000 pesos. list the Malangaan Spring and Cave, the transportation and personal expenses; to 19th-century Roman San occupy more than Instructional cost: 1.7. Cause upon tourism spill over Juan de Dios, Krizella Resort, St. John of Special one-time upfront fees, tuition, forecast at one percent of the international God Parish Church, C & B Orchid Farm, other fees, book and other expenses. The travellers through Clark or 19661 annually,

3 On Big Farms we communicated with Henry Lim of SL Agritech whose conviction is on the Big Farms. We were referred to the technical consultant Dr Malabanan had us speak with Gigi the Bulacan Provincial agriculturist who then referred the San Rafael Municipal Agriculturist Evelyn Cruz 4 The Bulacan bulk water supply project which includes the rehabilitation of dams, also positions the Angat reservoir for irrigation supporting the farming sector of the Municipality of Sa Rafael; apart raising flood control capability 5 Selection of income band is based on the capacity to pay college education 6 Regional DOT seems inconsistent with DOT at national level. San Rafael comprises 0.137% of national population and the corresponding tourism related jobs should stay at an incremental of 29 jobs annually for the municipality alone

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Northwoods Golf Club, Baluarte Del document states 67-76 percent of the sits the need for transient housing of 197 Pozzino's Resort, Villa Del Carmen Resort, average college student spends between well-built transient homes. Villa Krizelna Resort and Villa Mikaela 46950 and 101650 pesos for state Resort. The most popular are the San universities; and 48-50 percent of the 1.8. Cause upon Industrial estates sees Rafael River Adventure, 8 Waves average college student spends about to inclusive growth, labour mobility to Waterpark and the Big Rock Farm Resort. 66200-156200 pesos for private about 495HH pegged at low income institutions [27]. quartile of 6.44 percent with an income 1.6 Traveller receipts between June below 250000 pesos. 2013 and 2017 total 2.5 billion pesos. 1.7. The college completion ratio finds Airport destinations and arrivals find 59 percent for public institutions, 66 1.9. Industry shifts accounts 15 HH from 312,296 or 65 percent of travellers land in percent for private non-profit institutions, the lower income band into mid-range Manila, 91,805 or 19.33 percent of and 23 percent for private for-profit income at about 13.5 percent from the travellers in Cebu, 44,456 or 9.36 percent institutions [28]. baseline of 114 rice farmers in San Rafael of travellers land in Kalibo and 19,661 or up the mid-range income band. 4.14 percent of travellers arrive in Clark. 1.8. Tourism contributes five percent of For the year 2017 the travellers total the world GDP. It accounts for six percent 474,854 with 61 percent of travellers from of the world exports in services being the Asia [14] fourth largest export sector after fuels, chemicals and automotive products. 1.7 Over a dozen existing neighbouring Tourism is responsible for 235 million jobs industrial estates. Sta. Maria Industrial Park or one in every 12 jobs worldwide [29]. Sta. Maria, Bulihan Industrial Park Plaridel, Polyland Industrial Park , Sta. 1.9. Employment in tourism related Maria Industrial Park Santa Maria, First industries stays 5.2 million in 2016, higher Bulacan Industrial City Intercity by 5.1 percent compared to 5.0 million in Industrial Estate Wakas, Agro the previous year. The share of Industrial Subdivision , Metro employment in tourism industries total Warehouse Center , Horizon IT employment in the country was recorded Park—, Meycauayan at 12.8 percent in 2016 [30]. Industrial I-IV Meycauayan, Meridian Industrial Compound Meycauayan, the 1.10. Year on year growth rate of Muralla Industrial Project Meycauayan, tourism related jobs in Region III is 0.5 First Velenzuela Industrial Compound percent in an increment of 17 workers [31]. Meycauayan, Sterling Industrial Park Phase I, II, III & IV Meycauayan, Grand Industrial 1.11. The World Bank development Estate Plaridel, Sapang Palay Industrial indicators state that between 1984 and Estates San Jose del Monte, Agus 2014 the industry shift in the Philippines is Development Corporation Santa María, characterised by the rise in the services Bulacan ICT Park , Golden City sector by 20.1 percentage points, and a Business Park Wakas, Bocaue and Sterling decline in agriculture by (-) 13.5 percentage Industrial Park Marilao. points, (-) 6.7 percentage points in industry and (-) 4.1 in manufacturing. Industry 1.8 The distance between San Rafael and composition in 1984 shows Agriculture at Meycauayan is 39.1 kilometres with an 24.8 percent, Industry at 37.9 percent, average travel time of one hour eight Manufacturing at 24.6 percent and Services minutes. The distance from San Rafael to at 37.3 percent. In 2014 the industry Marilao is 37.2 kilometres or an average composition had Agriculture 11.3percent, travel time of one hour 13 minutes via Industry 31.2 percent, Manufacturing 20.5 Plaridel Bypass Rd. The distance from San percent and Services 57.5 percent [32]. Rafael to Malolos is 27.7 kilometres or an average travel time of one hour 10 minutes 1.12. The income from the industrial via Pan-Philippine Hwy/AH26. estates proves beneficial to the high-income households in urban regions since these industrial estates are located in the more developed areas. Rural HH at a low income are raised by 14.88 percent, rural HH middle income at 18.63 percent and rural HH high income at 2.38 percent. The urban HH low income is raised by 9.64 percent, the urban HH middle income at 19.06 percent and the urban HH high income at 35.4 percent [33].

1.13. Labour migration and mobility due to

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industrial estates in the Philippines is 6.44 percent [34].

B. Scenario Two: San Rafael as a community that makes sense of external linkages

2.1. The arterial road bypass project or 2.1. Studies on bypass roads find a new 2.1. Cause upon bypass road inclusive Plaridel Bypass Road is an arterial road of bypass road to relocate economic activity, growth in terms of labour mobility at 24.61 kilometres that will link the NLEX in encouraging employment opportunity. A vacancies differential7 on the baseline HH Balagtas, Bulacan with the Maharlika study points out the average opportunity recognised as salaried or wage earners or Highway in San Rafael. The arterial road vacancy in localities with bypass road at 850 HH will bypass the town proper of Plaridel and 18.4 percent against those without a urban areas of and Baliuag along bypass road to be at 10.9 percent. Retail 2.2. Cause upon bypass road inclusive the existing Maharlika Highway. Bypass businesses were found to account for a growth in the dimension of business roads are thought to improve traffic flow much larger share of business on a bypass activity from the average8 baseline HH of and safety thus alleviate the perennial 57.4 percent when compared to entrepreneurial activity or 2667 HH with traffic congestion at the core urban area of downtown areas without access to be improved living conditions, from income Bulacan [15]. about 31.1percent [35]. bands under 60,000 pesos to an income band 60,000- 100,000 pesos. 2.2. At provincial scale there is a strong 2.2. Rail linkages to city centres are cooperative movement representing proven to contribute an average of nine 2.3. Cause upon inclusive growth on annual increases at 0.42 billion pesos. percent of jobs to almost a quarter of all rail linkages, the benefit is curtailed with Cooperatives empower small and medium private sector jobs are found in city the distance from any Bulacan exchange. scale enterprises. A total of 395 active centres. 61 percent of national output and The forecast reasons the increase in cooperatives are in found in Bulacan 73 percent of jobs in knowledge intensive productivity for workers along the route business services, or KIBS jobs are found in and retail revenues to those who find 2.3. The NSRPcompletes37.6 kilometre city centres [36]. City centres produce business into San Rafael. In term of NSCR will be the Philippines' new elevated 21percent more output for every worker proximity to international port, San Rafael railway expected to help reduce travel time than non-city areas [37]. is conveniently one hour 24 minutes or from Malolos Bulacan to Tutuban Manila 61.2 kilometres from Subic international from 2 hours to a matter of 35 minutes. Six 2.3. Network Rail data indicate that port traversing the Pan-Philippine Highway. exchanges in the province: Meycauayan, retail sales year on year comparisons at Nonetheless this is an entirely new market Marilao, Bocaue, Balagtas, Guiguinto and stations increased by five percent and 0.4 to be given due merit. Therefore 21 Malolos [18]. percent increase on the high street linkages percent of entrepreneurial HH grossing [38]. under 60,000 pesos are scaled up in terms 2.4. Comparative distance: San Rafael to of productivity by two notches up the Meycauayan is one hour 12 minutes or 2.4. Divisoria is the traditional wholesale income quartile; showing 2129 HH up the 39.1 km via Plaridel Bypass Rd and market depot nearby the Manila port. The income quartile of 250,000 pesos. Pan-Philippine Highway. San Rafael to place traces back to the Spanish era when Marilao is one hour 16 min or 37.2 km via non-Christian merchants were forbidden to 2.4. Cause upon rail linkages, mild Plaridel Bypass Rd. San Rafael to Bocaue is reside or trade nearby Intramurous. migration can be argued to half the current one hour 16 min or 37.2 km via Plaridel Dubbed as 'the mecca of value shopping trend of 0.0047 percent from Metro, Bypass Rd. San Rafael to Plaridel is one and the mother of all markets in Manila', accounting for 379 HH. hour 11 min or 28.3 km via Plaridel Bypass and considered the premiere centre for Rd. San Rafael to Malolos one hour 15 street shops in Tiangge-style [40]. minutes or 27.7 km via Pan-Philippine Highway

C. Scenario Three: San Rafael as the next wave city by 2025, the wildcard

3.1. New Manila International Airport is 3.1. Airport infrastructure contributes 3.1. Caused upon inclusive growth sees to be located in Bulacan with two parallel 600 jobs per one million USD investments to jobs spill over into San Rafael at strength runways 3.5kms x 45m, two runways [41]. of 1/219 of the 600 jobs per one million 2.5kms x 45m, and provision for another 2 USD investments on airport facility. HH runways 3.5kms x 45m. The project is 3.2. By determination of the multiplier income is raised from under 100,000 designed to a capacity of two million effect, another study states: For every annually two notches up, to earn over 250 passengers a year and costs 700 billion direct employment opportunity at the thousand pesos annually for 657 HH. The pesos or USD46 million [19]. airports, linked to the business and corresponding 1314 jobs are for skilled

7 Differential of vacancies 18.4(-) 10.9 (=) 7.5 8 Differential of business 57.4(-) 31.1 (=) 26.3 9 The strength 1/21 assumes all 21 municipalities of Bulacan have equal importance and opportunity in the jobs spill over at the airport. 600 jobs per 1 million USD of the 46 million dollar investment

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passenger spending at such airports10.7 workers earning at least 60-100 thousand 3.2. Growth in domestic travellers at other jobs are created in the economy of per annum. the NAIA is 20,578,414 or six percent per the respective provinces [42]. annum, for international travellers 3.2. Caused upon the multiplier effect 18,938,368 or 10 percent per annum to 3.3. Migration triples in localities on jobs at 10.7 indirect jobs is equivalent to total 39,516,782 or eight percent annually nearby airport developments [43]. 295,320 split over six neighbouring [20]. provinces10. At similar strength of 1/21 is 3.4. There is considerable evidence another 2343 indirect jobs as a result of 3.3. The travel time between San that demonstrates the links between rural the international airport facility. These Rafael and Clark Airport is one hour 46 road investment, decline in poverty, and indirect jobs are for skilled workers earning minutes at a distance of 58.1 kilometres via improvement in the quality of life. Road at least 60-100 thousand per annum. Pan-Philippine Highway. The travel time investment contributed directly to the Therefore HH income from under 100,000 between San Rafael and New Manila growth of agricultural output and is annually move up two notches higher at International Airport is one hour 39 positively correlated with decline in over 250 thousand pesos annually, for minutes or 72.7 km via E1/R-8. poverty. Rural roads raise the total factor 2344 HH. productivity by reducing transaction and 3.4. Eastern Bulacan Expressway NLEE other costs thus allowing a more efficient 3.3. Caused upon migration by other 5 Alignment is an alternative route to the use of conventional productive inputs. provinces taking up the 295,320 indirect existing North Expressway and Pan Growth elasticity averages out to be 2.5 jobs. At a migration strength 1/21 of 5/6 of Philippine Highway formerly dubbed as the times of what it ought to be [44]. these jobs or 11,719 migrant households. Maharlika Highway or Cagayan Valley Road [21]. 3.5. Interstate freeways contribute 31 3.4. Caused upon expatriates account percent of economy [45]. for ten percent of local populations and the 3.5 The full 90-kilometer expressway links growth in international travellers at ten to Cabanatuan. The Project 3.6. Using a quasi-experimental design, percent11. At the strength of 1/21 of the costs P15 billion and slashes travel time to a difference-in-difference approach is 10 percent growth alone of international under an hour from the current three to developed and employed to analyse travellers is 3,355,047 with 10 percent as four hours trip. The build is expected to household data before and after road expatriates, sits the need for well-built take two years to complete for a capacity construction. The study finds that the new transient homes of about 10,912 units in of 75,000 vehicles a day. These townships road had a significantly positive impact on 2025. include Santa Maria, , Angat, mean household income of USD 235 or 28 San Rafael, San Ildefonso, San Miguel, San percent [46]. 3.5. Cause upon inclusive growth by Leonardo and Santa Rosa [22]. impact of paved roads per capita income 3.7. In the Philippines the impact of paved stated by PSA at 0.684. The minimum wage roads on per capita income is 0.684 for of Region 3 is P364 to P380 per day, and rural areas and 0.065 for urban areas [47]. the impact raises wages to 639.92. But it does not happen that the province will raise the minimum wage after the highway is built. This could mean worker earn minimum wages from NCR, which brings a minimum of 512 per day with easy access into the city centre. Income range is now between 159,744-199,655. A conservative assumption is that NO HH shall earn below 40,000 per annum. Cause upon inclusive growth, the five percent of HH is raised into the income quartile 100-249,000 pesos.

3.6. Elasticity of growth raises industry shifts from 0.0018 to 0.0045 on provincial population.

10 The six neighboring provinces are Rizal, Quezon City, Pampanga, , Quezon, Bulacan split the 295,320 indirect jobs obtained by the multiplier effect of direct jobs at 10.7 from the 46 million investment at 600 jobs per 1 million 11 The 10% expatriates of 18,938,368 international travellers is assumed to already been housed. The demand for accommodation can be established only in the growth rates 10 10% of the figure 2017 onwards

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VI. CONCLUSION This study presents the economic transitions in the year 2020 is 30,706 homes and 2025 demand for homes is municipality of San Rafael, highlighting the importance of 40,413 with a potential high of 69,474 when the New national infrastructure in the advancement of community Manila Airport comes into operation. The figure bases on that raise the living standards, insofar the demand for the simulation of scenarios with no inventories other than homes. The numbers further characterise the limitations of stated herein. The 2030 estimated demand is 169,054 a community in its natural growth with very little influence homes, with a high potential at 220,654 units. on sheer population growth. There is sufficient evidence to state, future constructs While there are several techniques and methods to should be of reasonable quality. That is, households within determine demand for homes, there is sufficient evidence the income quartile 100 000 and above, spend about 13 in the scenarios to conclude an increasing demand for percent of earnings in homes, while households earning homes. The random integer states the logical demand for below 100 000 invest only 7.7 percent in homes. The ideal land-construct ratio is 1.62 for best use of A Good reference to cite is the growth rates of the property in mid-range residential homes priced between National Capital Region. Taguig City after the rise of Fort two and five million. Serviced apartments to cater to future Bonifacio on Global City, presents a population cumulative expats working the nearby municipalities, is a good growth rate of 72 percent between 2000 and 2015. After alternative. Townhouses and easy homes are not the completion of the C5 highway, the City of recommended. presents a population cumulative growth rate of 50 per San Rafael is a beautiful urban countryside that is to cent between 2000 and 2015. This is followed by Paranaque withstand the next generation built environments resulting which presents a population cumulative growth rate of 48 rail linkage right into the heart of the city, the arterial road percent between 2000 and 2015. During the same period, as an alternate route into NCR, and the interstate freeway Makati City cumulative growth rate is at 24 percent, city of which is a major gateway into Northern Luzon. San Rafael is Manila at 13 percent and Quezon City at 35 percent about an hour and a half in travel to both Clark Airport and the New Manila Airport.

220,654 190,418 Fx Rand 160,182 169,052 A random integer between upper 129,946 and lower limits 99,710 102,591 82,579 69,474 71,932 65,009 35,929 38,864 39,619 40,413 26,820 28,714 31,181 30,706 33,169 44,594 47,225 47,225 47,225 47,225 47,225

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Random integer, forecast demand for homes (Molintas, D, 2018)

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