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Inclusive Growth: the Impact of National Infrastructure on Rural

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Inclusive Growth: the Impact of National Infrastructure on Rural Inclusive Growth: The impact of national infrastructure on rural urbanism Dominique Trual Molintas, Jesus Peralta, Tchaika Runas Movement for Development, Ytt Quaesitum Research [email protected], [email protected] Abstract— This instrument constitutes good explanation of the II. GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS developments in San Rafael Bulacan as regards its integration San Rafael Bulacan is an hour 45 minute drive from the and advancement, by way of National Infrastructure resulting inclusive growth. Given the Local Government discourse of urban Philippines’ National Capital Region via NLEX Balintawak agglomeration for the amalgamation of cities as a rudimentary Toll Plaza to Balagtas Exit, proceeding into Bustos via theoretical construct, the implements of this research looks into Plaridel Bypass Road. From the Bustos Municipal Hall turn spatial growth as an inevitable phenomenon in the forecast right into Baliuag via the Bustos Bridge then right turn accessibility. headed to Barangay Talacsan on the Baliuag San Rafael Utilising a scenario based approach by application of the Road. Other entry points are from NLEX-Balintawak Realistic Evaluation as the methodology to determine the demand for homes. The findings state that population densities proceeding towards NLEX Santa Rita Exit via the Dona are raised with rural urbanism transitions in the passage of time: Remedios Trinidad Highway towards the Pan-Philippine By random integer of three scenarios, the demand for homes in Highway in San Rafael; or from the Candaba - Baliuag Rd on year 2020 is at 30,706 homes and 2025 at 40,413 homes. There is to the Pan-Philippine Highway turning into the Balubaran a potential high demand of 69,474 homes when the New Manila Street continuing to Viola Highway into San Rafael, Bulacan. Airport comes into operation. The figure bases on the simulation Situated on the northern region of the province, of scenarios with no inventories other than stated herein. The document highlights the importance of National bounded by the provinces of Quezon and Pampanga, the Infrastructure in the advancement of community living, and municipality completes a land area of 16525 hectares. San characterises further the limitations of the rural communities Rafael is predominantly an agricultural town comprised of having very little influence over its natural growth. 34 barangays [1]. San Rafael is a first class municipality in the province of National Infrastructure, Inclusive Growth, Rural Urbanism, Bulacan, with a population size of 94,655 [2]. Integrated Cities, Inclusive Growth, Realistic Evaluation, 1 Demand for homes III. METHODOLOGY Using a scenario based approach to determine the demand I. INTRODUCTION for homes; the methodology is an application of the 1997 Pawson–Tilley CMO model [3] referred as the realistic In the dimension of inclusive growth, the cone of evaluation. CMO is a diagnostic tool for evaluating how plausibility within the municipality of San Rafael is mechanisms produce an outcome in the specific given characterised by three drivers: The impact of national context. infrastructure on the municipality, Leadership of the Local A. Realistic Evaluation Government, and the level of integration with neighbouring municipalities and provinces. The science of realistic evaluation states that any Projects of national and provincial scale of strategic mechanism crafted prescribes a purpose to which change priority are: the Bulacan Bulk Water Supply Project, the Big shall occur [4]. The framework outlines context to which Rice Farm Project, Agro-Industrial Hub, Bulacan Agro the prescription or mechanism occurs then determines if there is a clear relationship between a project or state Commodities Exchange Centre, New Manila International infrastructure, and its outcome by identifying a measurable Airport, North–South Railway Project or NSRP, San change. Rafael–Cabanatuan Expressway, Plaridel Bypass Road or CMO is context (+) mechanism (=) outcome. Arterial Road Bypass Project Phase II, and e-Magsasaka. Context shall situate the reasons why a particular The key mechanisms construed in this study are: External instruments or intervention or mechanism results linkages and internal circulation routes, SAFDZ or the measureable change. The CMO chart discourses Strategic agriculture and fishery development zone, Strong measurable change through descriptive or correlational cooperative enterprise, Export performance: Garments and research methods [5]. The purpose of correlational study is textile export, Neighbor industrial estates, Tourist to describe the relationship between mechanism and the destinations, Mineral and quarry resources, Location of outcome, while the descriptive research methods offer a higher education institutions. Refer to Appendices for full way of quantifying effect [6] through prior published case detail and appreciation. studies or surveys, interviews with key resource persons and naturalistic observation gathered from various secondary sources, discussion reports and journals. 1 This Paper was fully funded by PDP Properties Inc. 1 B. Scenario Analysis and Forecasting Rail initial connection to Tutuban, the Plaridel Bypass Road Scenario planning methodology is focused on generating and the San Rafael Cabanatuan Expressway. a range of scenarios for the future [7]. Contrasting This scenario characterises the economic transitions in techniques are used in order to challenge established the municipality, presenting the influences of the rail assumptions and stimulate creativity [8]. linkages into the capital city centre and the benefits of the One way of understanding the process of change and bypass road. The simulation shows an increase in municipal sorts of influence is to study the historical development in population by 56 percent or an increase in the demand for an area over the same period in the past as is intended for homes by 1,919 units. study in the future [9]. It is often contended that scenario The resulting alterations in the economic context are development is different from forecasting, but the analysis observed in terms of household income wherein no presented here reconsiders how it is converging with household earns below 40,000 pesos. Fourteen percent of contemporary forecasting practice in a more integrative HH earn within the income band 40,000-59,999 pesos; 22 perspective on using scenarios to support strategic planning percent of HH earn within the income band 60,000 and [10]. 99,999 pesos; one third or 36 percent of households earn within the income band 100, 000 and 250,000 pesos; and 38 percent of HH earn above 250,000. 11,799 HH represent wage earners or salaried employees, 10,557 HH do entrepreneur activity and 8694HH have other income sources representing the informal sector. Total demand for homes is 31,051 units which develop from Scenario One. C. Scenario Three: San Rafael as the next wave city by Figure 1: Cone of Plausibility 2025, the wildcard (Van Der Linde 2015) The third scenario ushers the wildcard of San Rafael as IV. SCENARIOS the Next Wave City positioning as the IT Corridor and assumes inclusive growth from the impact of both Clark A. Scenario One: San Rafael as a supportive community Airport gateway city and the New Manila International with baseline growth patterns Airport; apart the Eastern Bulacan Expressway NLEE The first scenario is the worn concept of San Rafael as a Alignment. supportive community with baseline growth. The The wildcard scenario characterises the economic population growth pattern shows the effects of aging and transitions in the municipality as the Next Wave City, generational changes in the context of its existing presenting the influences of the International Airport and resources. This scenario shows growth influences at a very the interstate freeway NLEEx. The simulation shows an natural pace. The differential from the baseline forecast increase in municipal population by twofold or an increase population growth and demand is just 691 HH more for in the demand by 2025 for 69,474 homes. 2020. The economic representation of these households The baseline of scenario one uses the forecast of state five percent of household earn 40,000 pesos; 14 households in 2025 at 39,684 units and not that of 2020. percent of households earn between 40,000 and 60,000 Economic transitions state that there is no household pesos; 13 percent of households earn between 60000 and earning below 40,000 pesos. Eight per cent of households 100000 pesos; 29 percent of households earn between earn within the income band 40,000 and 59,999 pesos; and 100,000-150,000 pesos; and 38 percent of households earn 11 per cent of households earn within the income band above 250,000 pesos2. 60,000 and 99,999 pesos. Nearly one third or 38 percent of The total demand for homes is 29,822 in 2025 is just 691 households earn within the income band 100,000 and units more than raw data population growth, and develops 250,000 pesos, and close to half of household population or from improvements due education and tourism related 43 percent of HH earn above 250,000 pesos. jobs. 32,441 HH comprise the wage earners or salaried employees, 23,621HH do entrepreneur activity and 13,200 HH have other income sources representing the informal B. Scenario Two: San Rafael as a community that makes sector. sense of external linkages Migration inter-province or other regions account for Scenario Two sits a plausible alternate that takes 11,719 HH, recognising the total demand for homes at Scenario One further in the concept: A community that 69,474 units. makes sense of the tangible linkages of national infrastructure to the municipality. That is the North South V. REALISTIC EVALUATION The table below explains the context in each scenario, 2 the mechanisms that have caused upon change in the 2020 forecast on bordering municipalities: San Idelfonso 35,080, Angat 21,361, Bustos 23,670, Baliuag 40,875, San Luis 58,922, Candaba 23,247 socio- economic conditions of the community that constitute the outcome, let alone inclusive growth. 2 CONTEXT MECHANISM OUTCOME: INCLUSIVE GROWTH A. Scenario One: San Rafael as a supportive community with baseline growth patterns 1.1 The forecast 2020 HH size of San 1.1.
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