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Transcend Information Equal-Weight MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH ASIA/PACIFIC Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Jerry Su [email protected] +886 2 2730 2860 Frank A.Y. Wang [email protected] +886 2 2730 2869 August 12, 2010 Stock Rating Transcend Information Equal-weight Industry View Hoping for Better 2H10, EW In-Line Key Ratios and Statistics Conclusion: Transcend sees DRAM and NAND Flash Reuters: 2451.TW Bloomberg: 2451 TT remaining stable in 2H10. We expect Transcend’s 2H10 Taiwan DRAM revenue to grow 23% H/H via European demand Price target NT$96.00 recovery and 2H seasonality. Management thinks 1 Gb Up/downside to price target (%) 7 DDR3 ASP will hold up well at US$2.4 and will boost PC Shr price, close (Aug 11, 2010) NT$90.10 demand if it falls to US$2.0. It thinks PC makers will 52-Week Range NT$124.00-79.00 increase DRAM content per box back to 4GB after the Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 426 recent DRAM price decline. For NAND Flash, Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$1,209 management sees limited ASP erosion in 2H10 but EV, curr (mn) US$882 expects renewed pricing pressure in 2011 from new Avg daily trading value (mn) US$8 capacity expansion and process migration by Samsung, Fiscal Year ending 12/09 12/10e 12/11e 12/12e Toshiba, and IMFT. ModelWare EPS (NT$) 10.16 6.84 9.37 10.95 Prior ModelWare EPS (NT$) - 7.20 9.37 10.95 What's new: We lower our 2010e EPS from NT$7.30 to EPS, basic (NT$)* 10.42 6.94 9.50 10.95 NT$6.95 to reflect weak 2Q10 results. Transcend Consensus EPS (NT$)§ 10.35 7.14 9.50 10.95 reported worse-than-expected 2Q10 EPS of NT$0.94 Revenue, net (NT$ mn) 33,411 33,000 38,224 40,999 (net profit NT$4 bn) vs. our EPS forecast of NT$1.15. EBITDA (NT$ mn) 5,321 3,973 4,924 5,379 2Q10 consolidated gross margin was 13%, down 260 bp ModelWare net inc (NT$ mn) 4,354 2,941 4,031 4,645 Q/Q and 820 bp Y/Y. 2Q10 consolidated OM was 7.4%, P/E 11.8 13.2 9.6 8.2 down 340 bp Q/Q and 820 bp Y/Y. Ex-dividend date is P/BV 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 September 14 for NT$6 per share cash dividend. RNOA (%) 54.4 41.9 36.5 36.6 ROE (%) 30.2 16.2 22.2 22.9 3Q10 guidance and outlook: Transcend expects 3Q10 EV/EBITDA 7.7 7.8 6.0 5.2 revenue to grow 20%+ Q/Q. It thinks gross margin will Div yld (%) 5.0 4.4 6.0 6.9 stay flattish vs. 2Q10. Management expects long-term FCF yld ratio (%) 6.0 (7.7) 5.2 7.9 consolidated gross margin of 12-14% on stable Leverage (EOP) (%) (57.6) (41.0) (42.9) (47.5) Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare DRAM/NAND ASP and +/- 2 ppt on DRAM/NAND ASP framework (please see explanation later in this note). § = Consensus data is provided by FactSet Estimates. fluctuation. Transcend expects 2H10 revenue to * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP account for 55-57% of 2010 sales (up 22-33% H/H). e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates DRAM OEM currently accounts for ~3% of total sales. Transcend has been qualified by major global PC/NB brands. It leverages its OEM customers to improve its production flow and quality. Management aims to control its DRAM OEM business below 5% of Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with total sales given lower GM business nature. companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As Rising industrial mix: DRAM, NAND Flash, and SSD a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the for industrial applications including ATM, POS (point of objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors sales), automotive, etc. have increased to 20% of total should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a sales and contributed 50% of net profit in 1H10. single factor in making their investment decision. Transcend is the only supplier globally that has stable For analyst certification and other important support from Samsung on legacy DRAM (SDRAM, disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, DDR) and SLC NAND Flash for its industrial customers. located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be Kingston and SanDisk are not focusing in this area. associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH August 12, 2010 Transcend Information Value-added Data: Exhibit 1 Transcend SMT Capacity Plan 1) 2Q10 DRAM module shipments were down 20% Q/Q and mn/mth 2008 20092010 14% Y/Y; NAND Flash module shipments were up 1% Q/Q Taiwan 2.5 27.7 but down 28% Y/Y; and Strategic product shipments were China 5.5 7.77.7 down 34% Q/Q and 15% Y/Y. Total 8.0 9.715.4 Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 2) 1H10 sales mix: DRAM modules 30.2%, NAND Flash Exhibit 2 Cards 33.0%, USB Flash Drives 17.3%, and Strategic 2Q10: Actual Results vs. Morgan Stanley Estimates products 19.5%. (Parent only) 2Q10 2Q10 3) 1H10 sales breakdown by region: Europe 32.3%, (NT$mn) Actual MS Variance Q/Q Y/Y Revenue 6,671 6,671 0% -18% -10% Asia-Pacific 29.0%, Taiwan 13.6%, America 9.3%, Japan COGS 5,960 5,993 -1% -18% 0% 9.0%, and others 6.8%. Depreciation 9 9 0% -32% -24% Gross Profit 711 678 5% -10% -53% Operating Cost 177 199 -11% -6% -10% Operating Insights: R&D 32 51 -36% -6% -12% Promotion 111 120 -8% -6% 8% Administrative 34 29 18% -6% -41% 1) 2Q10 foreign exchange loss reversal of NT$90 mn on Operating Profit 534 479 11% -11% -59% NT$ depreciation. Non Operating Items (45) 145 nm nm nm Pretax Profit 579 624 -7% -8% -52% Taxes (Gain) 180 137 31% 49% -40% 2) Revenue breakdown by currency – USD 40%, Euro 30%, Net Income 399 486 -18% -22% -56% Yen 10%, and NTD 20%. Pretax EPS 1.37 1.47 -7% -8% -53% EPS 0.94 1.15 -18% -22% -57% 3) 2Q10 account receivable breakdown by currency – USD Weighted Avg Shares 424 424 0% 0% 2% 72%, Euro 8%, Yen 13%, and NTD 7%. Gross Margin 10.7% 10.2% 50 bp 150 bp -990 bp Operating Margin 8.0% 7.2% 80 bp 60 bp -950 bp 4) DRAM revenue mix – 60% commodity, 40% proprietary. Net Margin 6.0% 7.3% -130 bp -30 bp -630 bp Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 5) 2Q10 inventory of NT$5.2 bn, down 4% Q/Q. Inventory breakdown – NAND Flash NT$3 bn, DRAM NT$1.1 bn, Valuation and Risks and others NT$1.1 bn. Management noted ~50% of its We derive our price target of NT$96 per share from the base inventory has no loss worries; the majority is used for case in our residual income model. We assume cost of equity industrial applications. of 9% and steady-state revenue growth of 4%. The implied P/E multiple at our target is 13x 2010e, the midpoint of the historical 6) Management sees limited impact from Spansion lawsuit up-cycle range (10-16x). as Samsung agrees to be responsible for all litigation expenses. Key downside risks: weaker-then-expected ASP and inventory write-down; revenue disruption from European Capex Plan: Transcend plans for NT$1.5bn in capex in economic weakness; market share loss from high competition 2010/11 to add 20 SMT (Surface Mount Technology) lines in Europe, Taiwan, and emerging markets; margin erosion (~8mn units/mth) in Taipei. It will recruit 1500+ workers. It will from higher competition (entry of new competitors is also a add four SMT lines in 2010 to replace the existing five slower possibility). speed SMT lines. Transcend will add the remaining 16 SMT lines in 2011 depending on market conditions. Key upside risks: margin improvement via better-than-expected DRAM/NAND ASP; share gain in China through strong execution and brand image; better-than-expected growth and margins for Strategic products; faster-than-expected adoption of solid state disks. 2 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH August 12, 2010 Transcend Information Exhibit 3 Transcend Quarterly Income Statement and Forecasts – Parent Basis 2009-12E NT$ (mn) 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010E 4Q2010E 1Q2011E 2Q2011E 3Q2011E 4Q2011E 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Sales 7,805 7,433 9,199 8,975 8,101 6,671 8,549 9,679 8,368 9,188 10,359 10,310 33,411 33,000 38,224 40,999 COGS 6,683 5,964 7,682 7,465 7,270 5,960 7,577 8,627 7,462 8,084 9,030 9,080 27,794 29,434 33,656 35,928 Depreciation 12 12 12 11 13 9 11 13 15 16 18 18 47 46 68 75 Non Depreciation Cost 6,671 5,952 7,670 7,454 7,257 5,951 7,565 8,614 7,447 8,067 9,012 9,062 27,747 29,388 33,589 35,852 Gross Profit 1,025 1,499 1,470 1,611 787 711 972 1,052 905 1,105 1,329 1,229 5,605 3,522 4,568 5,071 Total Operating Exp 186 198 242 187 189 177 181 204 199 215 244 229 813 752 887 943 SG&A 107 102 117 135 118 111 101 121 116 124 141 129 462 451 510 570 R&D 45 58 86 9 37 34 31 37 36 38 44 40 199 140 158 177 EBIT 839 1,301 1,228 1,424 598 534 790 848 706 890 1,084 1,001 4,793 2,770 3,681 4,128 Non-Oper.
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