Large-Scale Solar. Are We There Yet?

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Large-scale solar. Are we there yet? Sarah Morton October 2019 RE on NEM takes new record market share MWh 2 NEM solar capacity committed or under construction Annual Capacity generation (GWh) (MW-AC) NSW 3,518 1441 QLD 1,417 597 SA 710 379 VIC 819 398 NEM Total 6,464 2815 3 New commitments lower in 2019 4 New commitments by state 5 LGC supply and demand – operating and committed Tight supply Growing surplus 6 LGC supply and demand – operating and committed Spot LGCs $47.00 Cal19 $47.50 Cal20 $35.00 Cal21 $15.60 Cal22 $10.30 7 Spot price for solar varies by state 8 Large-scale solar response to negative pricing – QLD, Week 1 Sep Source: NEMReview 9 New commitments 2019 (wind and solar) Capacity Projects over 5MW Offtaker (MW-AC) Bango Wind Farm Snowy Hydro Group 244 Goonumbla Solar Farm Snowy Hydro Group 68 Wellington Solar Farm Snowy Hydro Group 174 Darlington Point Solar Farm Delta Electricity 275 Bomen Solar Farm Flow Power 100 Corowa Solar Farm Coles 27 Junee Solar Farm Coles 26 Wagga Wagga Solar Farm Coles 26 Biala Wind Farm Merchant 110 Collector Wind Farm Merchant 227 Jemalong Solar Farm Merchant 50 Kanowna Solar Farm Merchant 5 NSW Total 1332 Berrybank Wind Farm Victorian Government 180 Cohuna Solar Farm Victorian Government 27 Mortlake South Wind Farm Victorian Government 158 VIC Total 365 Agnew Mine Wind Farm Goldfields 18 Merredin Solar Farm Merchant 100 Warradarge Wind Farm Synergy Group 180 Yandin Hill Wind Farm Alinta Group 210 WA Total 508 NT Total 54 Note: Projects under SA Total 157 5MW not included 2416 10 Solar project performance AC-rated capacity factor 11 Some projects ramp up fast… AC-rated capacity factor 12 Some are slower AC-rated capacity factor 13 Some are slower AC-rated capacity factor 14 Projects are being delayed • 1.6 years on average from Final Investment Decision (FID) to completion – For solar projects (>10MW) completed this year (to date) 15 Some solar farms performing very well AC-rated capacity factor 16 Some operating at lower capacity factors 17 Constraints are having an impact AC-rated “Limit Broken Hill Solar Farm upper limit to 26 MW to manage capacity factor post contingent voltage oscillation” 18 Constraints are having an impact AC-rated capacity factor Lilyvale Solar Farm upper limit of 0 MW 19 Thank you Presented by: Sarah Morton MBBS, MPH, BSc (Hons) Senior Analyst T +61 3 9805 0713 [email protected] greenmarkets.com.au.

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