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Gabungan AQRS (AQRS MK) Buy Malaysia Initiating Coverage 19 June 2020 Construction & Engineering | Construction Gabungan AQRS (AQRS MK) Buy V-Shaped Recovery Presents An Exciting Outlook Target Price (Return): MYR1.33 (+51%) Price: MYR0.88 Market Cap: USD101m Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 1.05m/0.24m Initiate coverage with a BUY and SOP-derived MYR1.33 TP, 51% upside Analysts and c.3% yield, implying 13.8x FY21F P/E, close to the sector’s 5-year mean. Our valuation appears conservative, given Gabungan AQRS’ strong Muhammad Danial bin Abd Razak earnings growth outlook until FY22, which is likely supported by its sizeable +603 9280 8682 order backlog and an improving business environment. The sector could be [email protected] fuelled by improving sentiment in anticipation of an inclusive and longer term recovery plan in Budget 2021 and the 12th Malaysia Plan. Eddy Do Wey Qing Making a name in Pahang. AQRS was appointed as turnkey contractor for +603 9280 8856 the state’s new MYR361m administrative centre, Pusat Pentadbiran Sultan [email protected] Ahmad Shah (PPSAS). The job involves constructing landed homes in the surrounding Kota SAS development for MYR189m, thereby firming its Share Performance (%) operational presence there. Taken together, its position appears YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m strengthened when competing for the ongoing East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) Absolute (25.4) (3.8) 18.1 (27.3) (35.3) jobs. With a station located at Kota SAS and the alignment passing through the area, we see it as a strong contender given the cost and geographical Relative (21.5) (12.0) (5.1) (22.7) (27.6) advantage. Its experience in dealing with local authorities in obtaining 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.60 – 1.50 approvals also enhances its prowess in executing construction works efficiently. Gabungan AQRS (AQRS MK) Price Close Beneficiary of rail jobs. AQRS holds a steady track record of winning Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) several notable jobs, which were of huge contract value. Its strategic focus 1.7 113 of anchoring on government contracts should help to mitigate non-payment 1.5 105 risks in its books. Its latest outstanding orders mostly comprise of public 1.3 96 infrastructure projects, namely the Sungai Besi-Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE) and Light Rail Transit 3 (LRT3). Management stated 1.1 88 in the latest quarterly announcement that both projects have achieved 91% 0.9 80 and 23% completion. It appears likely that the LRT3 progress will move to 0.7 71 a peak cycle in 2022. 0.5 63 Deeply undervalued. AQRS is trading at 10x FY21F P/E. This is a 25% Jul-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jun-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jun-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Aug-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 May-20 discount vs sector average of 13.4x. We believe the discount is not justified May-20 as we expect its earnings growth to outperform peers in the next two years. Source: Bloomberg Based on our estimates, EPS can potentially grow by 80-90% YoY in the next two years. Its orderbook is robust, and should keep it busy for 3-4 years. Its revenue cover ratio is well above the industry’s average. Strong management team. Group CEO, Dato’ Azizan Jaafar was responsible in spearheading the massive restructuring exercise in 2016. Since then, his portfolio has further extended through his directorship in most of AQRS’ subsidiaries. Key downside risks include failure to secure new contracts, a prolonged downturn in the sector, and the possible rise of liquidated ascertained damages (LAD) due to delays in delivering its property projects. Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover (MYRm) 585 413 263 404 602 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 61 39 24 44 83 Recurring net profit growth (%) (8.7) (37.1) (38.9) 86.3 89.4 Recurring P/E (x) 6.74 10.71 18.52 9.94 5.25 P/B (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 P/CF (x) na na 10.31 47.47 5.70 Dividend Yield (%) 7.2 na na 3.4 5.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.40 7.77 11.79 6.14 2.74 Return on average equity (%) 14.1 7.8 4.5 8.0 14.0 InterestNet debt cover to equity (x) (%) 16.95 16.2 12.72 22.9 5.24 37.3 8.30 18.3 net 13.85 cash Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Gabungan AQRS Malaysia Initiating Coverage 19 June 2020 Construction & Engineering | Construction Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary (MYR) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Malaysia Recurring EPS 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.09 0.17 Construction & Engineering DPS 0.06 - - 0.03 0.05 Gabungan AQRS BVPS 1.01 1.09 1.08 1.14 1.25 AQRS MK Return on average equity (%) 14.1 7.8 4.5 8.0 14.0 Buy Valuation metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 6.74 10.71 18.52 9.94 5.25 We value the group based on its SOP, derived from a P/B (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 combination of P/E, DCF, and RNAV valuation FCF Yield (%) (7.4) (12.3) 7.7 (1.2) 14.3 methodologies. Dividend Yield (%) 7.2 - - 3.4 5.7 Key drivers EV/EBITDA (x) 4.40 7.77 11.79 6.14 2.74 EV/EBIT (x) 5.01 9.26 14.95 7.37 3.13 i. Strong contender to secure an ECRL package; ii. Potential beneficiary of Pan Borneo Sabah awards. Income statement (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover 585 413 263 404 602 Key risks Gross profit 123 83 63 91 140 i. Potential delays in completion of projects; EBITDA 104 64 52 84 142 ii. Slower-than-expected take-up rates in property; Depreciation and amortisation (13) (10) (11) (14) (17) iii. Inability to secure new orders. Operating profit 91 54 41 70 124 Net interest (5) (4) (8) (8) (9) Company Profile Pre-tax profit 87 51 33 61 115 Gabungan AQRS is primarily engaged in construction and property development. Taxation (22) (11) (8) (15) (28) Reported net profit 61 39 24 44 83 Recurring net profit 61 39 24 44 83 Cash flow (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Change in w orking capital (90) (74) (1) (59) (37) Cash flow from operations (25) (47) 42 9 76 Capex (6) (4) (9) (14) (14) Cash flow from investing activities (50) (35) (9) (14) (14) Dividends paid (30) 0 0 (15) (25) Cash flow from financing activities (33) 14 (6) (18) (9) Cash at beginning of period 50 92 138 56 154 Net change in cash (107) (69) 27 (23) 53 Ending balance cash (151) (44) 165 32 208 Balance sheet (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total cash and equivalents 129 139 58 156 287 Tangible fixed assets 31 20 17 17 14 Total investments 37 38 38 38 38 Total assets 1,414 1,483 1,160 1,404 1,758 Short-term debt 177 226 226 226 226 Total long-term debt 29 32 33 35 37 Total liabilities 936 965 618 830 1,121 Total equity 477 517 542 574 637 Total liabilities & equity 1,414 1,483 1,160 1,404 1,758 Key metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Revenue grow th (%) 26.6 (29.4) (36.4) 53.6 49.2 Recurrent EPS grow th (%) (20.3) (37.1) (42.2) 86.3 89.4 Gross margin (%) 21.1 20.1 23.9 22.6 23.2 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 15.6 19.6 20.7 23.5 Net profit margin (%) 10.5 9.3 9.0 10.9 13.8 Dividend payout ratio (%) 48.7 0.0 0.0 33.9 29.8 Capex/sales (%) 1.0 0.9 3.4 3.5 2.4 Interest cover (x) 17.0 12.7 5.2 8.3 13.8 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Gabungan AQRS Malaysia Initiating Coverage 19 June 2020 Construction & Engineering | Construction Valuation Figure 1: SOP valuation Construction PAT (MYRm) Target P/E (x) Total (MYRm) Remarks FY21F-22F average earnings 45.4 12 521.8 Note 1 Petronas Chemical Base Camp, Sipitang WACC DCF (MYR'm) Stake Value of PCB 8.50% 29 90% 26.3 Property Development WACC GDV Stake E'Island Lake Haven Residence, Puchong 8.50% 501.0 100% 18.2 The Peak, Johor Bahru 8.50% 603.0 100% 18.0 One Jesselton Waterfront, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah Serviced Residence 8.50% 337.9 100% 16.6 Condominium 8.50% 449.3 100% 22.1 Building and Carpark Services 100% 32.9 107.8 Shareholders' Funds (Property) 210.0 317.8 -65% discount (206.0) Note 2 RNAV of Property 111.8 Precast Manufacturing PAT (MYRm) Target P/E (x) FY21F-22F average earnings 0.4 10.0 1.7 Note 3 SOP Note 4 Outstanding number of shares (m) 495.0 SOP/share (MYR) 1.33 Fully-diluted SOP/share (MYR) 1.19 TP (MYR/Share) 1.33 Note 1: We are pegging the P/E to average construction earnings to reflect the positive trend in progress billings from FY21F to FY22F Note 2: We are giving 65% discount to its property division that is below -1SD of property sector’s discount to RNAV.
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