A Tutorial on Conducting and Interpreting a Bayesian ANOVA in JASP
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Anomalous Perception in a Ganzfeld Condition - a Meta-Analysis of More Than 40 Years Investigation [Version 1; Peer Review: Awaiting Peer Review]
F1000Research 2021, 10:234 Last updated: 08 SEP 2021 RESEARCH ARTICLE Stage 2 Registered Report: Anomalous perception in a Ganzfeld condition - A meta-analysis of more than 40 years investigation [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review] Patrizio E. Tressoldi 1, Lance Storm2 1Studium Patavinum, University of Padua, Padova, Italy 2School of Psychology, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia v1 First published: 24 Mar 2021, 10:234 Open Peer Review https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.51746.1 Latest published: 24 Mar 2021, 10:234 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.51746.1 Reviewer Status AWAITING PEER REVIEW Any reports and responses or comments on the Abstract article can be found at the end of the article. This meta-analysis is an investigation into anomalous perception (i.e., conscious identification of information without any conventional sensorial means). The technique used for eliciting an effect is the ganzfeld condition (a form of sensory homogenization that eliminates distracting peripheral noise). The database consists of studies published between January 1974 and December 2020 inclusive. The overall effect size estimated both with a frequentist and a Bayesian random-effect model, were in close agreement yielding an effect size of .088 (.04-.13). This result passed four publication bias tests and seems not contaminated by questionable research practices. Trend analysis carried out with a cumulative meta-analysis and a meta-regression model with Year of publication as covariate, did not indicate sign of decline of this effect size. The moderators analyses show that selected participants outcomes were almost three-times those obtained by non-selected participants and that tasks that simulate telepathic communication show a two- fold effect size with respect to tasks requiring the participants to guess a target. -
Dentist's Knowledge of Evidence-Based Dentistry and Digital Applications Resources in Saudi Arabia
PTB Reports Research Article Dentist’s Knowledge of Evidence-based Dentistry and Digital Applications Resources in Saudi Arabia Yousef Ahmed Alomi*, BSc. Pharm, MSc. Clin Pharm, BCPS, BCNSP, DiBA, CDE ABSTRACT Critical Care Clinical Pharmacists, TPN Objectives: Drug information resources provide clinicians with safer use of medications and play a Clinical Pharmacist, Freelancer Business vital role in improving drug safety. Evidence-based medicine (EBM) has become essential to medical Planner, Content Editor, and Data Analyst, Riyadh, SAUDI ARABIA. practice; however, EBM is still an emerging dentistry concept. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to Anwar Mouslim Alshammari, B.D.S explore dentists’ knowledge about evidence-based dentistry resources in Saudi Arabia. Methods: College of Destiney, Hail University, SAUDI This is a 4-month cross-sectional study conducted to analyze dentists’ knowledge about evidence- ARABIA. based dentistry resources in Saudi Arabia. We included dentists from interns to consultants and Hanin Sumaydan Saleam Aljohani, those across all dentistry specialties and located in Saudi Arabia. The survey collected demographic Ministry of Health, Riyadh, SAUDI ARABIA. information and knowledge of resources on dental drugs. The knowledge of evidence-based dental care and knowledge of dental drug information applications. The survey was validated through the Correspondence: revision of expert reviewers and pilot testing. Moreover, various reliability tests had been done with Dr. Yousef Ahmed Alomi, BSc. Pharm, the study. The data were collected through the Survey Monkey system and analyzed using Statistical MSc. Clin Pharm, BCPS, BCNSP, DiBA, CDE Critical Care Clinical Pharmacists, TPN Package of Social Sciences (SPSS) and Jeffery’s Amazing Statistics Program (JASP). -
Bayesian Inference in Linguistic Analysis Stephany Palmer 1
Bayesian Inference in Linguistic Analysis Stephany Palmer 1 | Introduction: Besides the dominant theory of probability, Frequentist inference, there exists a different interpretation of probability. This other interpretation, Bayesian inference, factors in prior knowledge of the situation of interest and lends itself to allow strongly worded conclusions from the sample data. Although having not been widely used until recently due to technological advancements relieving the computationally heavy nature of Bayesian probability, it can be found in linguistic studies amongst others to update or sustain long-held hypotheses. 2 | Data/Information Analysis: Before performing a study, one should ask themself what they wish to get out of it. After collecting the data, what does one do with it? You can summarize your sample with descriptive statistics like mean, variance, and standard deviation. However, if you want to use the sample data to make inferences about the population, that involves inferential statistics. In inferential statistics, probability is used to make conclusions about the situation of interest. 3 | Frequentist vs Bayesian: The classical and dominant school of thought is frequentist probability, which is what I have been taught throughout my years learning statistics, and I assume is the same throughout the American education system. In taking a sample, one is essentially trying to estimate an unknown parameter. When interpreting the result through a confidence interval (CI), it is not allowed to interpret that the actual parameter lies within the CI, so you have to circumvent and say that “we are 95% confident that the actual value of the unknown parameter lies within the CI, that in infinite repeated trials, 95% of the CI’s will contain the true value, and 5% will not.” Bayesian probability says that only the data is real, and as the unknown parameter is abstract, thus some potential values of it are more plausible than others. -
11. Correlation and Linear Regression
11. Correlation and linear regression The goal in this chapter is to introduce correlation and linear regression. These are the standard tools that statisticians rely on when analysing the relationship between continuous predictors and continuous outcomes. 11.1 Correlations In this section we’ll talk about how to describe the relationships between variables in the data. To do that, we want to talk mostly about the correlation between variables. But first, we need some data. 11.1.1 The data Table 11.1: Descriptive statistics for the parenthood data. variable min max mean median std. dev IQR Dan’s grumpiness 41 91 63.71 62 10.05 14 Dan’s hours slept 4.84 9.00 6.97 7.03 1.02 1.45 Dan’s son’s hours slept 3.25 12.07 8.05 7.95 2.07 3.21 ............................................................................................ Let’s turn to a topic close to every parent’s heart: sleep. The data set we’ll use is fictitious, but based on real events. Suppose I’m curious to find out how much my infant son’s sleeping habits affect my mood. Let’s say that I can rate my grumpiness very precisely, on a scale from 0 (not at all grumpy) to 100 (grumpy as a very, very grumpy old man or woman). And lets also assume that I’ve been measuring my grumpiness, my sleeping patterns and my son’s sleeping patterns for - 251 - quite some time now. Let’s say, for 100 days. And, being a nerd, I’ve saved the data as a file called parenthood.csv. -
Arxiv:1803.00360V2 [Stat.CO] 2 Mar 2018 Prone to Misinterpretation [2, 3]
Computing Bayes factors to measure evidence from experiments: An extension of the BIC approximation Thomas J. Faulkenberry∗ Tarleton State University Bayesian inference affords scientists with powerful tools for testing hypotheses. One of these tools is the Bayes factor, which indexes the extent to which support for one hypothesis over another is updated after seeing the data. Part of the hesitance to adopt this approach may stem from an unfamiliarity with the computational tools necessary for computing Bayes factors. Previous work has shown that closed form approximations of Bayes factors are relatively easy to obtain for between-groups methods, such as an analysis of variance or t-test. In this paper, I extend this approximation to develop a formula for the Bayes factor that directly uses infor- mation that is typically reported for ANOVAs (e.g., the F ratio and degrees of freedom). After giving two examples of its use, I report the results of simulations which show that even with minimal input, this approximate Bayes factor produces similar results to existing software solutions. Note: to appear in Biometrical Letters. I. INTRODUCTION A. The Bayes factor Bayesian inference is a method of measurement that is Hypothesis testing is the primary tool for statistical based on the computation of P (H j D), which is called inference across much of the biological and behavioral the posterior probability of a hypothesis H, given data D. sciences. As such, most scientists are trained in classical Bayes' theorem casts this probability as null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The scenario for testing a hypothesis is likely familiar to most readers of this journal. -
The Bayesian Approach to Statistics
THE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO STATISTICS ANTHONY O’HAGAN INTRODUCTION the true nature of scientific reasoning. The fi- nal section addresses various features of modern By far the most widely taught and used statisti- Bayesian methods that provide some explanation for the rapid increase in their adoption since the cal methods in practice are those of the frequen- 1980s. tist school. The ideas of frequentist inference, as set out in Chapter 5 of this book, rest on the frequency definition of probability (Chapter 2), BAYESIAN INFERENCE and were developed in the first half of the 20th century. This chapter concerns a radically differ- We first present the basic procedures of Bayesian ent approach to statistics, the Bayesian approach, inference. which depends instead on the subjective defini- tion of probability (Chapter 3). In some respects, Bayesian methods are older than frequentist ones, Bayes’s Theorem and the Nature of Learning having been the basis of very early statistical rea- Bayesian inference is a process of learning soning as far back as the 18th century. Bayesian from data. To give substance to this statement, statistics as it is now understood, however, dates we need to identify who is doing the learning and back to the 1950s, with subsequent development what they are learning about. in the second half of the 20th century. Over that time, the Bayesian approach has steadily gained Terms and Notation ground, and is now recognized as a legitimate al- ternative to the frequentist approach. The person doing the learning is an individual This chapter is organized into three sections. -
1 Estimation and Beyond in the Bayes Universe
ISyE8843A, Brani Vidakovic Handout 7 1 Estimation and Beyond in the Bayes Universe. 1.1 Estimation No Bayes estimate can be unbiased but Bayesians are not upset! No Bayes estimate with respect to the squared error loss can be unbiased, except in a trivial case when its Bayes’ risk is 0. Suppose that for a proper prior ¼ the Bayes estimator ±¼(X) is unbiased, Xjθ (8θ)E ±¼(X) = θ: This implies that the Bayes risk is 0. The Bayes risk of ±¼(X) can be calculated as repeated expectation in two ways, θ Xjθ 2 X θjX 2 r(¼; ±¼) = E E (θ ¡ ±¼(X)) = E E (θ ¡ ±¼(X)) : Thus, conveniently choosing either EθEXjθ or EX EθjX and using the properties of conditional expectation we have, θ Xjθ 2 θ Xjθ X θjX X θjX 2 r(¼; ±¼) = E E θ ¡ E E θ±¼(X) ¡ E E θ±¼(X) + E E ±¼(X) θ Xjθ 2 θ Xjθ X θjX X θjX 2 = E E θ ¡ E θ[E ±¼(X)] ¡ E ±¼(X)E θ + E E ±¼(X) θ Xjθ 2 θ X X θjX 2 = E E θ ¡ E θ ¢ θ ¡ E ±¼(X)±¼(X) + E E ±¼(X) = 0: Bayesians are not upset. To check for its unbiasedness, the Bayes estimator is averaged with respect to the model measure (Xjθ), and one of the Bayesian commandments is: Thou shall not average with respect to sample space, unless you have Bayesian design in mind. Even frequentist agree that insisting on unbiasedness can lead to bad estimators, and that in their quest to minimize the risk by trading off between variance and bias-squared a small dosage of bias can help. -
Statistical Analysis in JASP
Copyright © 2018 by Mark A Goss-Sampson. All rights reserved. This book or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of the author except for the purposes of research, education or private study. CONTENTS PREFACE .................................................................................................................................................. 1 USING THE JASP INTERFACE .................................................................................................................... 2 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ......................................................................................................................... 8 EXPLORING DATA INTEGRITY ................................................................................................................ 15 ONE SAMPLE T-TEST ............................................................................................................................. 22 BINOMIAL TEST ..................................................................................................................................... 25 MULTINOMIAL TEST .............................................................................................................................. 28 CHI-SQUARE ‘GOODNESS-OF-FIT’ TEST............................................................................................. 30 MULTINOMIAL AND Χ2 ‘GOODNESS-OF-FIT’ TEST. .......................................................................... -
Hypothesis Testing and the Boundaries Between Statistics and Machine Learning
Hypothesis Testing and the boundaries between Statistics and Machine Learning The Data Science and Decisions Lab, UCLA April 2016 Statistics vs Machine Learning: Two Cultures Statistical Inference vs Statistical Learning Statistical inference tries to draw conclusions on the data generation model Data Generation X Process Y Statistical learning just tries to predict Y The Data Science and Decisions Lab, UCLA 2 Statistics vs Machine Learning: Two Cultures Leo Breiman, “Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures,” Statistical Science, 2001 The Data Science and Decisions Lab, UCLA 3 Descriptive vs. Inferential Statistics • Descriptive statistics: describing a data sample (sample size, demographics, mean and median tendencies, etc) without drawing conclusions on the population. • Inferential (inductive) statistics: using the data sample to draw conclusions about the population (conclusion still entail uncertainty = need measures of significance) • Statistical Hypothesis testing is an inferential statistics approach but involves descriptive statistics as well! The Data Science and Decisions Lab, UCLA 4 Statistical Inference problems • Inferential Statistics problems: o Point estimation Infer population Population properties o Interval estimation o Classification and clustering Sample o Rejecting hypotheses o Selecting models The Data Science and Decisions Lab, UCLA 5 Frequentist vs. Bayesian Inference • Frequentist inference: • Key idea: Objective interpretation of probability - any given experiment can be considered as one of an infinite sequence of possible repetitions of the same experiment, each capable of producing statistically independent results. • Require that the correct conclusion should be drawn with a given (high) probability among this set of experiments. The Data Science and Decisions Lab, UCLA 6 Frequentist vs. Bayesian Inference • Frequentist inference: Population Data set 1 Data set 2 Data set N . -
Statistical Inference: Paradigms and Controversies in Historic Perspective
Jostein Lillestøl, NHH 2014 Statistical inference: Paradigms and controversies in historic perspective 1. Five paradigms We will cover the following five lines of thought: 1. Early Bayesian inference and its revival Inverse probability – Non-informative priors – “Objective” Bayes (1763), Laplace (1774), Jeffreys (1931), Bernardo (1975) 2. Fisherian inference Evidence oriented – Likelihood – Fisher information - Necessity Fisher (1921 and later) 3. Neyman- Pearson inference Action oriented – Frequentist/Sample space – Objective Neyman (1933, 1937), Pearson (1933), Wald (1939), Lehmann (1950 and later) 4. Neo - Bayesian inference Coherent decisions - Subjective/personal De Finetti (1937), Savage (1951), Lindley (1953) 5. Likelihood inference Evidence based – likelihood profiles – likelihood ratios Barnard (1949), Birnbaum (1962), Edwards (1972) Classical inference as it has been practiced since the 1950’s is really none of these in its pure form. It is more like a pragmatic mix of 2 and 3, in particular with respect to testing of significance, pretending to be both action and evidence oriented, which is hard to fulfill in a consistent manner. To keep our minds on track we do not single out this as a separate paradigm, but will discuss this at the end. A main concern through the history of statistical inference has been to establish a sound scientific framework for the analysis of sampled data. Concepts were initially often vague and disputed, but even after their clarification, various schools of thought have at times been in strong opposition to each other. When we try to describe the approaches here, we will use the notions of today. All five paradigms of statistical inference are based on modeling the observed data x given some parameter or “state of the world” , which essentially corresponds to stating the conditional distribution f(x|(or making some assumptions about it). -
Hierarchical Models & Bayesian Model Selection
Hierarchical Models & Bayesian Model Selection Geoffrey Roeder Departments of Computer Science and Statistics University of British Columbia Jan. 20, 2016 Geoffrey Roeder Hierarchical Models & Bayesian Model Selection Jan. 20, 2016 Contact information Please report any typos or errors to geoff[email protected] Geoffrey Roeder Hierarchical Models & Bayesian Model Selection Jan. 20, 2016 Outline 1 Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling Coin toss redux: point estimates for θ Hierarchical models Application to clinical study 2 Bayesian Model Selection Introduction Bayes Factors Shortcut for Marginal Likelihood in Conjugate Case Geoffrey Roeder Hierarchical Models & Bayesian Model Selection Jan. 20, 2016 Outline 1 Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling Coin toss redux: point estimates for θ Hierarchical models Application to clinical study 2 Bayesian Model Selection Introduction Bayes Factors Shortcut for Marginal Likelihood in Conjugate Case Geoffrey Roeder Hierarchical Models & Bayesian Model Selection Jan. 20, 2016 Let Y be a random variable denoting number of observed heads in n coin tosses. Then, we can model Y ∼ Bin(n; θ), with probability mass function n p(Y = y j θ) = θy (1 − θ)n−y (1) y We want to estimate the parameter θ Coin toss: point estimates for θ Probability model Consider the experiment of tossing a coin n times. Each toss results in heads with probability θ and tails with probability 1 − θ Geoffrey Roeder Hierarchical Models & Bayesian Model Selection Jan. 20, 2016 We want to estimate the parameter θ Coin toss: point estimates for θ Probability model Consider the experiment of tossing a coin n times. Each toss results in heads with probability θ and tails with probability 1 − θ Let Y be a random variable denoting number of observed heads in n coin tosses. -
Resources for Mini Meta-Analysis and Related Things Updated on June 25, 2018 Here Are Some Resources That I and Others Find
Resources for Mini Meta-Analysis and Related Things Updated on June 25, 2018 Here are some resources that I and others find useful. I know my mini meta SPPC article and Excel were not exhaustive and I didn’t cover many things, so I hope this resource page will give you some answers. I’ll update this page whenever I find something new or receive suggestions. Meta-Analysis Guides & Workshops • David Wilson, who wrote Practical Meta-Analysis, has a website containing PowerPoints and macros (for SPSS, Stata, and SAS) as well as some useful links on meta-analysis o I created an Excel template based on his slides (read the Excel page to see how this template differs from my previous SPPC template) • McShane and Böckenholt (2017) wrote an article in the Journal of Consumer Research similar to my mini meta paper. It comes with a very cool website that calculates meta- analysis for you: https://blakemcshane.shinyapps.io/spmetacase1/ • Courtney Soderberg from the Center for Open Science gave a mini meta-analysis workshop at SIPS 2017. All materials are publicly available: https://osf.io/nmdtq/ • Adam Pegler wrote a tutorial blog on using R to calculate mini meta based on my article • The founders of MetaLab at Stanford made video tutorials on meta-analysis in general • Geoff Cumming has a video tutorial on meta-analysis and other “new statistics” or read his Psychological Science article on the “new statistics” • Patrick Forscher’s meta-analysis syllabus and class materials are available online • A blog post containing 5 tips to understand and carefully