WEEKLY IBEX 35 8,291 3.33% -3.21% -13.11% IBEX 35 3,210 2,446 2,400 4,925 Euro Stox X 50 2,651 0.78% 14.44% -5.56% Euro Stox X 50 7,358 6,524 7,325 14,831
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IBERIA EQUITY RESEARCH 21 December 2012 TOP STORIES Telecoms - Zon announced that the Board of Directors had met and decided to initiate formal negotiations with a view to approving the merger project with Optimus. The board of Optimus also informed that it fully supports, without reservations, the convenience and opportunity of a merger between Zon and Optimus Both statements were pretty much as expected. The questions that really matter are, in one side the exchange ratio, 1.5 now, but we would not be surprised if this ratio changed in favor of Zon shareholders and in the other side the answer from the CMVM (the Portuguese security and exchange commission) to the idea of a creation of a vehicle owned by Isabel dos Santos and Sonaecom with a control stake in Zon of 50.01% (page 4). OUT THIS WEEK Snapshots/Company Reports – PT & TEF, Sonaecom & Zon Multimedia, EDPR, Sonae Price Target / Recommendation Changes – Iberdrola, Zon Multimedia, Jerónimo Martins, Mota- Engil Other News – Zon Multimedia, EDP, Retail Sector, Jerónimo Martins, Galp Energia, PT & Zon Multimedia WEEK AHEAD Monday – JM ex-date special dividend (gross €0.239 per share) Friday – Retail sales Spain PORTFOLIOS This week, Mib Aggressive Portfolio went up 2.96%, outperforming the PSI20 by 1.75pp. Novabase and Semapa were the contributors for this outperformance (page 10). This week, Mib Liquidity Portfolio went up 4.14%, outperforming the PSI20 by 2.94pp. Sonae and Semapa were the contributors for this outperformance (page 11). Stock Market Last 1W YTD 2011 Daily Vol. (€mn) 1W 1M 6M 2011 PSI 20 5,693 1.21% 3.62% -27.60% PSI 20 106 94 60 148 WEEKLY IBEX 35 8,291 3.33% -3.21% -13.11% IBEX 35 3,210 2,446 2,400 4,925 Euro Stox x 50 2,651 0.78% 14.44% -5.56% Euro Stox x 50 7,358 6,524 7,325 14,831 Forex Rates Last 1W YTD 2011 Interest Rates Last 1W C hg YE11 António Seladas, CFA EU R/U SD 1.32 0.98% 2.09% -3.17% Euribor 6m 0.32% 0.32% 0bp 1.62% +351 21 003 7826 EU R/GBP 0.81 0.33% -2.53% -2.96% 10Y Bond PT 6.98% 7.09% -11bp 13.36% EU R/BRL 2.74 -0.31% 13.28% 8.86% 10Y Bond SP 5.25% 5.39% -14bp 5.09% [email protected] Best & Worse Performers -1 Week (%) Best & Worse Performers - YTD (%) Banco Popular 12.3 BPI 106.3 Indra 11.5 Sonae 56.6 Semapa 11.2 Mota-Engil 51.7 Av. José Malhoa, Lote 27 Bankinter 10.4 Altri 37.4 1099-010 Lisboa Mota-Engil 10.2 Zon Multimedia 29.2 Sonae Capital 0.0 Impresa -34.0 Tel / Fax: +351 21 003 7800 / 09 Sonae Industria -1.0 Cimpor -36.4 Cofina -2.7 Sonae Capital -44.4 Jerónimo Martins -2.8 Martifer -46.3 EDP Renováveis -5.5 Banco Popular-67.1 -15 -5 5 15 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 Page 1 of 14 All prices are those of the end of the trading session unless otherwise indicated. For important Disclosure and Disclaimer go to the second last page. Millennium investment banking Weekly 21 December 2012 CHANGES New Previous Motive Rating Target Rating Target Zon Multimedia Neutral 3.20 Buy 3.20 Price Performance Iberdrola Buy 5.00 Buy 4.95 Moving Valuation to YE13 Jerónimo Martins Buy 16.50 Neutral 16.50 Price Performance Mota-Engil Reduce 1.50 Neutral 1.50 Price Performance EARNINGS Company 4Q2012 Investor Day Galp Energia * 21-01 BM Bankinter (e) 24-01 BM BCP 08-02 AM Galp Energia 11-02 BM 05-03-2013 Sonaecom 07-03 BM Glintt 26-03 Jerónimo Martins n.a. Portucel n.a. BPI n.a. Iberdrola n.a. Banco Popular n.a. Media Capital n.a. Novabase n.a. Semapa n.a. Impresa n.a. Brisa n.a. EDP n.a. Sonae Sierra n.a. EDP Renováveis n.a. Telefónica n.a. Altri n.a. REN n.a. Cofina n.a. Zon Multimedia n.a. BES n.a. Cimpor n.a. Sonae n.a. Indra n.a. Martifer n.a. Sonae Capital n.a. Sonae Indústria n.a. Ibersol n.a. Mota-Engil n.a. Portugal Telecom n.a. ESFG n.a. Soares da Costa n.a. SAG n.a. AM - After market; BM - Before market; n.a. - Not available; (e) Expected; * Trading Update Page 2 of 14 Millennium investment banking Weekly 21 December 2012 TELECOMS Portugal Telecom Buy – Medium Risk (Target YE13: €5.30) Zon Multimedia Neutral– Medium Risk (Target YE13: €3.20) Alexandra Delgado, CFA Pt and Zon Agreement on Sport TV António Seladas, CFA Equity Analysts PT announced yesterday night that is going to acquire 25% stake in Sport TV a new entity that combines Sport TV Portugal, Sportinveste Multimedia (exploits multimedia sport rights for internet and mobile platforms) and PPTV (owns the exclusive TV rights for the vast majority of Portuguese Football clubs until the end of 2017/18 season). PT will contribute its 50% stake in Sportinveste Multimedia and €21Mn through a rights issue in Sport TV. Zon also announced that on this deal will reduce its stake in Sport TV from 50% to 25%, receiving a cash in around €46Mn (equity and shareholders loans). The new entity, owned 25% by PT; 25% by Zon and 50% by Sportinveste (the prior owner of PPTV), will have a cleaner structure than before as the exclusive TV rights of the Portuguese Football clubs are now under the umbrella of Sport TV, which was not the case before and will be the main acquirer of sports rights for the Portuguese market. It is not clear if Zon and PT will proportionally consolidate the new company, however Zon to be consistent will probably consolidate, while PT have both options. Portugal Telecom Buy – Medium Risk (Target YE13: €5.30) Telefónica Buy – Medium Risk (Target YE13: €17.35) Alexandra Delgado, CFA Brazilian Mobile Market MoM - Mobile market slowing down... Equity Analyst . The Brazilian regulator released this week night mobile subscribers’ numbers. The Brazilian mobile market reached 260.0 million clients in November 2012, which stands for 131.9% penetration of the population. Net additions during the month were 746k, which compares to 4,450k net adds in November 2011 (-83.2%). Subscriber growth in the Brazilian market has decelerated significantly in the last months, on the back of higher penetration. Subscribers grew 10.1% YoY in the last 12 months, the lowest rate on our data base (since December 2004). Vivo subscribers were down by 295k in the month which resulted in the loss of 0.2pp market share, to 29.2%. Oi captured a very positive 523k net adds in the month, raising its market share by almost 0.2pp to 18.98%. (For further details, please refer to our snapshot out this week) Sonaecom Buy – High Risk (Target YE13: €2.40) Zon Multimedia Neutral – Medium Risk (Target YE13: €3.20) Alexandra Delgado, CFA Merger proposal – The ball’s in Zon’s court Equity Analyst . Sonaecom SGPS and Isabel dos Santos announced last Friday they have reached an agreement to recommend to the Boards of Zon Multimédia and Optimus SGPS a merger between the two companies, based on the incorporation of Optimus SGPS into Zon. Sonaecom will host a conference call next Monday, December 17th, at 10:00 (GMT time). The proposed ratio values Zon as being 150% of Optimus. This exchange ratio gives 60.0% of merger synergies to Zon shareholders and 40.0% to Sonaecom shareholders. The ratio proposed is close to current market value. We have for long defended this merger because we believe it creates significant value (our estimate Page 3 of 14 Millennium investment banking Weekly 21 December 2012 is €317 mn in synergies), and therefore this first step towards a potential merger is positive. Sonaecom becomes the leading shareholder in the new company with a 32% stake. Isabel dos Santos will hold 25%. The decision is now on Zon shareholders’ side, assuming Zon’s Board approves the deal. However, the structure announced is more complex than a merger between Sonaecom and Zon Multimédia and penalizes Sonaecom shareholders. Sonaecom will become a holding with an economic interest of 32% in Zon Optimus plus SSI and Público, therefore trading at a discount vs. the new company. (For further details, please refer to our snapshot out this week) Zon Optimus Merger Zon announced that the Board of Directors had met this week and decided to initiate formal negotiations with a view to approving the merger project with Optimus. For this purpose the board deliberated: (1) to delegate in the executive committee the management and orientation of the negotiation process with the Board of Directors of OPTIMUS; (2) to appoint an Ad-hoc Committee to oversee the negotiations, consisting of Non-Executive Members of the Board of Directors and (3) to hire BESI and Caixa BI as financial advisors to the company for the merger process. Lately, the board of Optimus also informed that it fully supports, without reservations, the convenience and opportunity of a merger between Zon and Optimus and is entirely available to negotiate with Zon the preparation of a a merger project, to be submitted to the Shareholder Meetings of Zon and Optimus. Both statements were pretty much as expected. The questions that really matter are, in one side the exchange ratio, 1.5 now, but we would not be surprised if this ratio changed in favor of Zon shareholders and in the other side the answer from the CMVM (the Portuguese security and exchange commission) to the idea of a creation of a vehicle owned by Isabel dos Santos and Sonaecom with a control stake in Zon of 50.01% UTILITIES Iberdrola Buy – Low Risk (Target YE13: €5.00) Vanda Mesquita, Shrinking debt to ensure a healthier future Equity Analyst .